偷鱼的夜鹭
07-18
这个华尔街贱闻怎么不聊聊大A股？大A股昨天可以跌去了自25年8月以来所有涨幅。
美股半导体指数跌入熊市，芯片股溃败时苹果盘中夺回市值第一，AI牛市迎来“换锚”时刻？
华尔街见闻
紧盯全球金融市场，覆盖股市、外汇、债券、大宗商品等。
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>等芯片龙头继续承压，市场开始重新审视AI资本开支能否持续支撑当前估值。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eb0024b5f1fd3c66cad906dde413dbb\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但与芯片股形成鲜明反差的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>却成为资金新的避风港。盘中，苹果市值一度反超英伟达，重新夺回全球市值第一宝座。这意味着，美股科技板块正在出现今年以来最明显的一次内部风格切换——资金正从最拥挤的AI基础设施交易，转向现金流更稳定、消费电子属性更强的超级平台公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，SpaceX股价继续重挫，截至本周五，连续两日收盘跌破IPO发行价，再度刷新上市一个多月来低点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">即便周四台积电交出超预期的财报，也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。越来越多分析人士开始讨论一个此前鲜少被认真对待的问题：持续近两年的AI科技牛市，是否已经开始出现拐点？</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>半导体指数跌入技术性熊市，AI交易遭遇今年最大回撤</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一周，半导体成为全球表现最差的板块之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示，费城半导体指数本周累计跌近9%，较6月历史高位累计回撤超过20%，符合市场对于"技术性熊市"（较近期高点跌幅达到20%）的定义。追踪行业表现的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> Semiconductor ETF（SOXX）同样跌入熊市区间，并创下去年以来最差单周表现之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更值得关注的是，本轮调整已经从个股扩散至整个产业链。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达、AMD、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a>、博通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>等AI核心受益股连续大跌；亚洲市场<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>、SK海力士、东京电子、Advantest等同步遭遇资金撤离，日本、韩国科技指数跌幅明显扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">路透社指出，市场担忧已经从"AI需求是否存在"转向"AI资本开支是否已经透支未来数年的增长"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前推动行情不断创新高的几个逻辑——</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI算力投资无限扩张；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU持续供不应求；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">云计算巨头持续提高资本开支；</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如今均开始受到市场重新审视。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">部分对冲基金已经开始降低AI基础设施相关持仓，资金则更多流向此前涨幅相对落后的板块，而非整体撤离股市。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>苹果市值正赶超英伟达 市场开始给AI交易“换锚”</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在芯片股集体下跌之际，美股另一幕却引发市场广泛讨论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周五美股盘中，苹果市值曾达到约4.88万亿美元，而英伟达因股价下跌约3.5%，市值降至约4.86万亿美元，以盘中水平看，苹果重新成为全球市值最高上市公司，这是苹果自去年4月以来首次重新夺回市值榜首。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此后，随着英伟达股价收窄跌幅，市值又再度反超苹果。到收盘时，苹果股价涨0.14%，连续三日刷新收盘最高纪录，市值约为4.9万亿美元，英伟达股价跌2.21%，市值约为4.91%。苹果可能下个交易日就被抹平市值差距，真正夺回最高市值宝座。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果市值赶超英伟达的这一变化迅速成为社交平台热门话题。不少投资者认为，这象征着市场领导权开始发生变化：AI基础设施不再是唯一的估值锚。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDDT\">Reddit</a>投资社区大量讨论认为，过去一年"英伟达不会输"的市场共识正在松动，而苹果凭借稳定现金流、生态优势以及即将推出的新一代AI Siri，重新获得资金青睐；也有投资者认为，这反映资金开始偏好盈利确定性更高的大盘科技股，而非继续押注高投入、高估值的AI硬件公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">BRI Wealth Management首席投资官Toni Meadows表示，过去苹果一直被视作AI竞赛中的"落后者"，但市场这种看法已经开始发生变化，投资者正在重新评估苹果在AI时代的长期竞争力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不少华尔街机构也指出，这并不意味着市场否定AI，而是意味着AI交易开始从"卖铲人"逐渐扩展至真正能够实现AI商业化和现金流变现的平台企业。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>存储板块出现罕见逆势分化，SK海力士为何一枝独秀？</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，并非所有芯片股都同步下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国存储芯片龙头SK海力士ADR逆市上涨，美股午盘之初刷新日高时，日内涨幅约为9.9%，尽管此后回吐多数涨幅，仍收涨1.1%，扭转了两日累计跌超20%的暴跌势头，成为少数周五表现亮眼的大型半导体公司之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd982ce3461d64935a5e5a277a280fc3\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场分析认为，背后主要有三方面原因：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，HBM（高带宽存储器）仍然是AI服务器最紧缺的零部件之一，其供需关系明显优于GPU之外的大多数芯片品类。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次，相比GPU板块此前数月的大幅上涨，存储板块此前调整更充分，估值压力相对较小。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，部分资金选择在AI产业链内部进行轮动，从估值更高的GPU龙头转向仍具业绩确定性的存储芯片企业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，多数机构仍认为，这更像是板块内部的结构性轮动，而非整个半导体行业重新走强的信号。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>AI高估值资产被重估 SpaceX市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一只备受市场关注的AI概念股——SpaceX——同样成为本轮科技股抛售的重要受害者。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因发动机问题取消Starship火箭发射后，市场情绪持续恶化，SpaceX股价周五加速下跌，当天收跌5.4%，连续第三日盘中、连续第二日收盘跌破IPO发行价，并继续创6月12日上市以来新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到本周五收盘，SpaceX股价已连跌六个交易日，本周五日累跌近14.7%，市值约1.63万亿美元。相比6月16日创上市以来股价收盘最高点当天，SpaceX周五的市值已跌去超过1万亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">作为今年最受追捧的新上市科技公司之一，SpaceX的持续下跌，被不少投资者视作高估值成长股风险偏好快速下降的最新信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期从英伟达、美光到SpaceX，大量AI概念龙头市值快速缩水，累计蒸发市值已达到万亿美元级别，显示此前高度拥挤的AI交易正在经历剧烈去杠杆。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>科技牛市“最后一道防线”开始松动？</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比此前几轮调整，本轮科技股下跌最大的不同，在于"好消息也无法推动股价上涨"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在台积电公布超预期财报、上调资本开支之后，全球科技股依然延续跌势；三星电子、SK海力士此前发布强劲业绩，同样未能阻止半导体板块整体调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着，市场交易逻辑正在发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一年，AI资本开支几乎可以覆盖所有估值疑虑；如今，投资者开始更加关注几个关键问题：</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">超大规模云厂商的资本开支还能维持多久？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI基础设施投资何时能够兑现商业回报？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前盈利增长是否足以支撑经历大幅扩张后的估值体系？</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从市场表现来看，答案仍未明朗。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，当前资金并未全面撤离科技板块，而是更多体现为内部重新定价：一边是半导体、AI硬件等高弹性资产持续遭到减仓；另一边则是苹果等现金流稳健、商业模式成熟的科技巨头重新获得资金追捧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于华尔街而言，这或许意味着AI牛市并未结束，但驱动市场上涨的"锚"正在发生变化——从"谁卖更多GPU"，逐步转向"谁最先把AI真正变成稳定利润"。这一轮科技牛市最坚固的防线正在经历考验，而市场新的领导者，也许已经开始浮现。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股半导体指数跌入熊市，芯片股溃败时苹果盘中夺回市值第一，AI牛市迎来“换锚”时刻？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股半导体指数跌入熊市，芯片股溃败时苹果盘中夺回市值第一，AI牛市迎来“换锚”时刻？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-18 05:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便周四<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>交出超预期的财报，也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。周五，费城半导体指数较6月高位跌去20%；前两日跌超20%的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>美股一度涨近10%，但未被视为整个行业重新走强信号。AI高估值资产被重估，SpaceX收跌超5%、连日跌破发行价，市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI交易最核心的“发动机”开始熄火，美股科技牛市也迎来了今年以来最严峻的一次压力测试。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五，全球半导体股继续遭遇抛售，费城半导体指数（SOX）盘中跌幅曾达5.7%，收跌约1.6%，较6月下旬所创的历史高点累计回撤约20.2%，跌入技术性熊市。与此同时，曾经一路领涨AI行情的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>等芯片龙头继续承压，市场开始重新审视AI资本开支能否持续支撑当前估值。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eb0024b5f1fd3c66cad906dde413dbb\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但与芯片股形成鲜明反差的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>却成为资金新的避风港。盘中，苹果市值一度反超英伟达，重新夺回全球市值第一宝座。这意味着，美股科技板块正在出现今年以来最明显的一次内部风格切换——资金正从最拥挤的AI基础设施交易，转向现金流更稳定、消费电子属性更强的超级平台公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，SpaceX股价继续重挫，截至本周五，连续两日收盘跌破IPO发行价，再度刷新上市一个多月来低点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">即便周四台积电交出超预期的财报，也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。越来越多分析人士开始讨论一个此前鲜少被认真对待的问题：持续近两年的AI科技牛市，是否已经开始出现拐点？</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>半导体指数跌入技术性熊市，AI交易遭遇今年最大回撤</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一周，半导体成为全球表现最差的板块之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示，费城半导体指数本周累计跌近9%，较6月历史高位累计回撤超过20%，符合市场对于"技术性熊市"（较近期高点跌幅达到20%）的定义。追踪行业表现的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> Semiconductor ETF（SOXX）同样跌入熊市区间，并创下去年以来最差单周表现之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更值得关注的是，本轮调整已经从个股扩散至整个产业链。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达、AMD、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a>、博通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>等AI核心受益股连续大跌；亚洲市场<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>、SK海力士、东京电子、Advantest等同步遭遇资金撤离，日本、韩国科技指数跌幅明显扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">路透社指出，市场担忧已经从"AI需求是否存在"转向"AI资本开支是否已经透支未来数年的增长"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前推动行情不断创新高的几个逻辑——</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI算力投资无限扩张；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU持续供不应求；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">云计算巨头持续提高资本开支；</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如今均开始受到市场重新审视。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">部分对冲基金已经开始降低AI基础设施相关持仓，资金则更多流向此前涨幅相对落后的板块，而非整体撤离股市。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>苹果市值正赶超英伟达 市场开始给AI交易“换锚”</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在芯片股集体下跌之际，美股另一幕却引发市场广泛讨论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周五美股盘中，苹果市值曾达到约4.88万亿美元，而英伟达因股价下跌约3.5%，市值降至约4.86万亿美元，以盘中水平看，苹果重新成为全球市值最高上市公司，这是苹果自去年4月以来首次重新夺回市值榜首。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此后，随着英伟达股价收窄跌幅，市值又再度反超苹果。到收盘时，苹果股价涨0.14%，连续三日刷新收盘最高纪录，市值约为4.9万亿美元，英伟达股价跌2.21%，市值约为4.91%。苹果可能下个交易日就被抹平市值差距，真正夺回最高市值宝座。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果市值赶超英伟达的这一变化迅速成为社交平台热门话题。不少投资者认为，这象征着市场领导权开始发生变化：AI基础设施不再是唯一的估值锚。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDDT\">Reddit</a>投资社区大量讨论认为，过去一年"英伟达不会输"的市场共识正在松动，而苹果凭借稳定现金流、生态优势以及即将推出的新一代AI Siri，重新获得资金青睐；也有投资者认为，这反映资金开始偏好盈利确定性更高的大盘科技股，而非继续押注高投入、高估值的AI硬件公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">BRI Wealth Management首席投资官Toni Meadows表示，过去苹果一直被视作AI竞赛中的"落后者"，但市场这种看法已经开始发生变化，投资者正在重新评估苹果在AI时代的长期竞争力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不少华尔街机构也指出，这并不意味着市场否定AI，而是意味着AI交易开始从"卖铲人"逐渐扩展至真正能够实现AI商业化和现金流变现的平台企业。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>存储板块出现罕见逆势分化，SK海力士为何一枝独秀？</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，并非所有芯片股都同步下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国存储芯片龙头SK海力士ADR逆市上涨，美股午盘之初刷新日高时，日内涨幅约为9.9%，尽管此后回吐多数涨幅，仍收涨1.1%，扭转了两日累计跌超20%的暴跌势头，成为少数周五表现亮眼的大型半导体公司之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd982ce3461d64935a5e5a277a280fc3\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场分析认为，背后主要有三方面原因：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，HBM（高带宽存储器）仍然是AI服务器最紧缺的零部件之一，其供需关系明显优于GPU之外的大多数芯片品类。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次，相比GPU板块此前数月的大幅上涨，存储板块此前调整更充分，估值压力相对较小。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，部分资金选择在AI产业链内部进行轮动，从估值更高的GPU龙头转向仍具业绩确定性的存储芯片企业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，多数机构仍认为，这更像是板块内部的结构性轮动，而非整个半导体行业重新走强的信号。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>AI高估值资产被重估 SpaceX市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一只备受市场关注的AI概念股——SpaceX——同样成为本轮科技股抛售的重要受害者。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因发动机问题取消Starship火箭发射后，市场情绪持续恶化，SpaceX股价周五加速下跌，当天收跌5.4%，连续第三日盘中、连续第二日收盘跌破IPO发行价，并继续创6月12日上市以来新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到本周五收盘，SpaceX股价已连跌六个交易日，本周五日累跌近14.7%，市值约1.63万亿美元。相比6月16日创上市以来股价收盘最高点当天，SpaceX周五的市值已跌去超过1万亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">作为今年最受追捧的新上市科技公司之一，SpaceX的持续下跌，被不少投资者视作高估值成长股风险偏好快速下降的最新信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期从英伟达、美光到SpaceX，大量AI概念龙头市值快速缩水，累计蒸发市值已达到万亿美元级别，显示此前高度拥挤的AI交易正在经历剧烈去杠杆。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>科技牛市“最后一道防线”开始松动？</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比此前几轮调整，本轮科技股下跌最大的不同，在于"好消息也无法推动股价上涨"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在台积电公布超预期财报、上调资本开支之后，全球科技股依然延续跌势；三星电子、SK海力士此前发布强劲业绩，同样未能阻止半导体板块整体调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着，市场交易逻辑正在发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一年，AI资本开支几乎可以覆盖所有估值疑虑；如今，投资者开始更加关注几个关键问题：</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">超大规模云厂商的资本开支还能维持多久？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI基础设施投资何时能够兑现商业回报？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前盈利增长是否足以支撑经历大幅扩张后的估值体系？</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从市场表现来看，答案仍未明朗。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，当前资金并未全面撤离科技板块，而是更多体现为内部重新定价：一边是半导体、AI硬件等高弹性资产持续遭到减仓；另一边则是苹果等现金流稳健、商业模式成熟的科技巨头重新获得资金追捧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于华尔街而言，这或许意味着AI牛市并未结束，但驱动市场上涨的"锚"正在发生变化——从"谁卖更多GPU"，逐步转向"谁最先把AI真正变成稳定利润"。这一轮科技牛市最坚固的防线正在经历考验，而市场新的领导者，也许已经开始浮现。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e8aba7de194dc92d26747c1cfec057","relate_stocks":{"LU2125909759.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety H-R/A SGD","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD) INC","LU2452424414.USD":"BGF ESG MULTI-ASSET \"A10\" (USDHDG) INC","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","SPCF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-ProShares","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","ARM":"ARM Holdings","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) 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Issue ETF","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","LU2506951792.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0553294199.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A5G\" (USD) INC","LU1699723380.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"AP\" (USD) ACC","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777263","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2652238271","content_text":"即便周四台积电交出超预期的财报，也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。周五，费城半导体指数较6月高位跌去20%；前两日跌超20%的SK海力士美股一度涨近10%，但未被视为整个行业重新走强信号。AI高估值资产被重估，SpaceX收跌超5%、连日跌破发行价，市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元。AI交易最核心的“发动机”开始熄火，美股科技牛市也迎来了今年以来最严峻的一次压力测试。周五，全球半导体股继续遭遇抛售，费城半导体指数（SOX）盘中跌幅曾达5.7%，收跌约1.6%，较6月下旬所创的历史高点累计回撤约20.2%，跌入技术性熊市。与此同时，曾经一路领涨AI行情的英伟达、AMD、博通等芯片龙头继续承压，市场开始重新审视AI资本开支能否持续支撑当前估值。但与芯片股形成鲜明反差的是，苹果却成为资金新的避风港。盘中，苹果市值一度反超英伟达，重新夺回全球市值第一宝座。这意味着，美股科技板块正在出现今年以来最明显的一次内部风格切换——资金正从最拥挤的AI基础设施交易，转向现金流更稳定、消费电子属性更强的超级平台公司。同时，SpaceX股价继续重挫，截至本周五，连续两日收盘跌破IPO发行价，再度刷新上市一个多月来低点。即便周四台积电交出超预期的财报，也未能阻止全球科技股进一步杀跌。越来越多分析人士开始讨论一个此前鲜少被认真对待的问题：持续近两年的AI科技牛市，是否已经开始出现拐点？半导体指数跌入技术性熊市，AI交易遭遇今年最大回撤过去一周，半导体成为全球表现最差的板块之一。数据显示，费城半导体指数本周累计跌近9%，较6月历史高位累计回撤超过20%，符合市场对于\"技术性熊市\"（较近期高点跌幅达到20%）的定义。追踪行业表现的iShares Semiconductor ETF（SOXX）同样跌入熊市区间，并创下去年以来最差单周表现之一。更值得关注的是，本轮调整已经从个股扩散至整个产业链。英伟达、AMD、Arm、博通、美光等AI核心受益股连续大跌；亚洲市场三星电子、SK海力士、东京电子、Advantest等同步遭遇资金撤离，日本、韩国科技指数跌幅明显扩大。路透社指出，市场担忧已经从\"AI需求是否存在\"转向\"AI资本开支是否已经透支未来数年的增长\"。此前推动行情不断创新高的几个逻辑——AI算力投资无限扩张；GPU持续供不应求；云计算巨头持续提高资本开支；如今均开始受到市场重新审视。部分对冲基金已经开始降低AI基础设施相关持仓，资金则更多流向此前涨幅相对落后的板块，而非整体撤离股市。苹果市值正赶超英伟达 市场开始给AI交易“换锚”就在芯片股集体下跌之际，美股另一幕却引发市场广泛讨论。本周五美股盘中，苹果市值曾达到约4.88万亿美元，而英伟达因股价下跌约3.5%，市值降至约4.86万亿美元，以盘中水平看，苹果重新成为全球市值最高上市公司，这是苹果自去年4月以来首次重新夺回市值榜首。此后，随着英伟达股价收窄跌幅，市值又再度反超苹果。到收盘时，苹果股价涨0.14%，连续三日刷新收盘最高纪录，市值约为4.9万亿美元，英伟达股价跌2.21%，市值约为4.91%。苹果可能下个交易日就被抹平市值差距，真正夺回最高市值宝座。苹果市值赶超英伟达的这一变化迅速成为社交平台热门话题。不少投资者认为，这象征着市场领导权开始发生变化：AI基础设施不再是唯一的估值锚。Reddit投资社区大量讨论认为，过去一年\"英伟达不会输\"的市场共识正在松动，而苹果凭借稳定现金流、生态优势以及即将推出的新一代AI Siri，重新获得资金青睐；也有投资者认为，这反映资金开始偏好盈利确定性更高的大盘科技股，而非继续押注高投入、高估值的AI硬件公司。BRI Wealth Management首席投资官Toni Meadows表示，过去苹果一直被视作AI竞赛中的\"落后者\"，但市场这种看法已经开始发生变化，投资者正在重新评估苹果在AI时代的长期竞争力。不少华尔街机构也指出，这并不意味着市场否定AI，而是意味着AI交易开始从\"卖铲人\"逐渐扩展至真正能够实现AI商业化和现金流变现的平台企业。存储板块出现罕见逆势分化，SK海力士为何一枝独秀？值得注意的是，并非所有芯片股都同步下跌。韩国存储芯片龙头SK海力士ADR逆市上涨，美股午盘之初刷新日高时，日内涨幅约为9.9%，尽管此后回吐多数涨幅，仍收涨1.1%，扭转了两日累计跌超20%的暴跌势头，成为少数周五表现亮眼的大型半导体公司之一。市场分析认为，背后主要有三方面原因：首先，HBM（高带宽存储器）仍然是AI服务器最紧缺的零部件之一，其供需关系明显优于GPU之外的大多数芯片品类。其次，相比GPU板块此前数月的大幅上涨，存储板块此前调整更充分，估值压力相对较小。此外，部分资金选择在AI产业链内部进行轮动，从估值更高的GPU龙头转向仍具业绩确定性的存储芯片企业。不过，多数机构仍认为，这更像是板块内部的结构性轮动，而非整个半导体行业重新走强的信号。AI高估值资产被重估 SpaceX市值一个月蒸发超1万亿美元另一只备受市场关注的AI概念股——SpaceX——同样成为本轮科技股抛售的重要受害者。因发动机问题取消Starship火箭发射后，市场情绪持续恶化，SpaceX股价周五加速下跌，当天收跌5.4%，连续第三日盘中、连续第二日收盘跌破IPO发行价，并继续创6月12日上市以来新低。到本周五收盘，SpaceX股价已连跌六个交易日，本周五日累跌近14.7%，市值约1.63万亿美元。相比6月16日创上市以来股价收盘最高点当天，SpaceX周五的市值已跌去超过1万亿美元。作为今年最受追捧的新上市科技公司之一，SpaceX的持续下跌，被不少投资者视作高估值成长股风险偏好快速下降的最新信号。近期从英伟达、美光到SpaceX，大量AI概念龙头市值快速缩水，累计蒸发市值已达到万亿美元级别，显示此前高度拥挤的AI交易正在经历剧烈去杠杆。科技牛市“最后一道防线”开始松动？相比此前几轮调整，本轮科技股下跌最大的不同，在于\"好消息也无法推动股价上涨\"。就在台积电公布超预期财报、上调资本开支之后，全球科技股依然延续跌势；三星电子、SK海力士此前发布强劲业绩，同样未能阻止半导体板块整体调整。这意味着，市场交易逻辑正在发生变化。过去一年，AI资本开支几乎可以覆盖所有估值疑虑；如今，投资者开始更加关注几个关键问题：超大规模云厂商的资本开支还能维持多久？AI基础设施投资何时能够兑现商业回报？当前盈利增长是否足以支撑经历大幅扩张后的估值体系？从市场表现来看，答案仍未明朗。不过，当前资金并未全面撤离科技板块，而是更多体现为内部重新定价：一边是半导体、AI硬件等高弹性资产持续遭到减仓；另一边则是苹果等现金流稳健、商业模式成熟的科技巨头重新获得资金追捧。对于华尔街而言，这或许意味着AI牛市并未结束，但驱动市场上涨的\"锚\"正在发生变化——从\"谁卖更多GPU\"，逐步转向\"谁最先把AI真正变成稳定利润\"。这一轮科技牛市最坚固的防线正在经历考验，而市场新的领导者，也许已经开始浮现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WTAI":0.9,"AAPL":1.5,"CHPS":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"DRAM":0.6,"AVXC":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"CNAV":0.6,"YMAG":1.5,"QQQA":0.6,"VTHR":1.5,"XOVR":0.9,"AMUU":0.6,"07709":0.6,"03145":0.6,"CGNG":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"SOX":1.95,"SHOC":0.6,"SPCX":0.85,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"RAM":0.9,"AAPB":0.6,"AVGO":1,"MIC":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"TSLA":0.6,"ASIA":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"07747":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"CGDG":0.6,"SPAL":0.77,"RDYY":0.6,"CHAT":1.5,"BAI":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"AMD.AU":1,"CGIC":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"SPCF":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"TSMG":0.6,"CIBR":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"AMZN":0.6,"OND":0.85,"ARMU":0.6,"SPCQ":0.6,"SPCH":0.6,"AMD":1,"ANV":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"RDDT":1,"CGGO":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"SKHY":1,"TSMY":0.6,"AMDS":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"MU":1,"GOOG":0.6,"EMM":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"AVEM":0.6,"USD":0.6,"SPAX":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"EEMO":0.6,"METV":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"SK":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"SNK":0.77,"MACW.SI":0.6,"MAGY":1.5,"XLK":0.6,"AVGW":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"EDZ":0.85,"MUYY":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"PTF":1.5,"HYNX":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"SMH":1.5,"07388":0.6,"ARMG":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SPWO":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"AGIX":1.5,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SSNLF":1,"AMDW":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"SKHYV":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"ARM":1,"NVYY":0.6,"CWI":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"VGT":0.9,"QTOC":1.5,"SPCG":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"META":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"SOCL":0.6,"MEMX":0.6,"CORO":0.6,"AIPO":1.5,"MSFT":0.6,"BULZ":1.5,"NVDA":1,"CNEQ":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"DXYZ":0.77,"ESUM":0.6,"BERZ":1.5,"NVD":0.6,"SPRX":0.6,"RDTL":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"DRAL":0.6,"VERS":0.9,"AAPD":0.6,"SPCM":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"SSPC":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"KNOW":0.6,"SPCU":0.77,"TSMZ":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"ARM.AU":1,"IETC":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"EEMA":1,"AVGX":0.6,"AVSE":0.6,"EMC":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"UMMA":0.6,"07788":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"ARTY":1.5,"ARMW":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"STSM":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"VT":0.6,"TSM":1,"LOFF":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"SOXX":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":71,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/586950244385984"}
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