华尔街见闻 - 老虎社区

最新新闻

59分钟前

沃什怎么想？9月会加息吗？在8月美联储“杰克逊霍尔年会”前，市场都将纠结

沃什怎么想？9月会加息吗？在8月美联储“杰克逊霍尔年会”前，市场都将纠结

09:50

单日7.2万亿韩元，外资周五净买入创纪录！华尔街：韩股资金面逆风已经消退

单日7.2万亿韩元，外资周五净买入创纪录！华尔街：韩股资金面逆风已经消退

07:20

高盛：7月砸穿拥挤交易，美股牛市没断但更难做了

高盛：7月砸穿拥挤交易，美股牛市没断但更难做了

用户讨论

08-01 11:12

see,

“黑色7月”以“两连涨”收尾，“AI交易”见底了吗？

07-31 22:53

可惜沃什是川普的傀儡，根本不会主动加息

内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息

07-31 22:52

价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。

内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息

07-31 22:51

以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。

内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息

07-31 17:03

说的对赶紧崩

高盛：美联储框架不透明或适得其反，长端利率或倒逼再度加息

07-30 19:23

用一个不合理的折旧调整，摊薄了成本，保住了经营利润率，循环融资根本就是无可辩驳，所谓的利润当然有，但1都是自己投资的钱，2更多来自于对OA股权投资的估值增长，已经开始玩这种上不了台面的花招就恰恰说明已经无招可用，无话可说了，加速看跌，怎么骗上来的跌下去只会更多！微软甚至还不如meta，至少meta还算诚实，不会玩这种自作聪明的烂招。

当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？

07-30 19:14

应该改成所有股票停牌，只能三倍做多海力士跟三星[开心]

报道：韩国交易所内部考虑暂时禁止卖空、收窄±30%涨跌幅限制

07-30 18:54

interesting

高通的底牌：当手机不再是主场

07-30

鬼故事天天在市场上讲，软件要崩了的故事就忘了？现在硬件又要崩了，最后是市场要崩了！

当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？

07-30

罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。

华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？

07-30

一旦出现抗通胀进程停滞的迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。

华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？

07-30

美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。

华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？

07-30

沃什正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。

华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？

07-29

清杠杆以后清散户？

"史上最强"之后，海力士开始难超预期了

07-29

“史上最强”是海力士，“现代最强”是谁呢

"史上最强"之后，海力士开始难超预期了

杨过爱上黄蓉

07-28

特朗普能不能直接干脆一点，再光说不干，就没人吧他当回事了

冲突继续暂停，特朗普威胁若无协议将摧毁镐山，阿曼推进海峡管理计划

07-28

股价涨了几倍，这财报顶多50分。。。

康宁交了一份"满分"财报，市场却想给它打负分

07-28

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩

07-28

这**的只会做空，再让他爆仓几次

“大空头”继续狙击AI！Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位，维持做空特斯拉、Palantir

邓文鄧文邓闻

07-28

这是广义货币扩张达到极致的一个重要信号，下步要修深修宽水渠了，

英伟达循环融资引发忧虑：CDS价差创纪录飙升，股价大跌5%，苹果重夺市值第一

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10:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“黑色7月”以“两连涨”收尾，“AI交易”见底了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2656397405","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"多数分析师认为经历动量股的大幅回调以及AI龙头估值有所修复后，轮动最剧烈轮动阶段已过。但同时强调并不意味着精确底部已经确认。摩根大通建议增配质量因子，高盛提示长端利率风险，建议维持高流动性、低复杂度持仓。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>多数分析师认为经历动量股的大幅回调以及AI龙头估值有所修复后，轮动最剧烈轮动阶段已过。但同时强调并不意味着精确底部已经确认。摩根大通建议增配质量因子，高盛提示长端利率风险，建议维持高流动性、低复杂度持仓。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本月收官之际，华尔街上演了一场集体反弹，但这场反弹究竟是超卖后的技术修复，还是AI投资逻辑真正触底的信号，市场远未达成共识。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">七月的最后两个交易日，此前遭受重创的高动量股票完成强劲两日反弹，韩国芯片重仓指数KOSPI一度单日暴涨超18%，美股半导体板块录得6月以来最大两日涨幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c585d5820b0e784715462b6c2715088\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"554\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而7月，纳斯达克综合指数累计下跌约3%，创3月以来最差月度表现，并连续两个月录得跌幅。高盛高贝塔动量篮子7月跌幅更是创下2000年11月以来最差单月纪录。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2f2a5dd29a808ded50147f2c8b0dc9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"600\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场动荡的直接导火索，是杠杆AI押注翻车事件。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻提及，由Leopold Aschenbrenner掌管的对冲基金Situational Awareness（简称SA）因杠杆AI仓位爆仓遭遇追保，被迫在下跌市场中抛售公开市场权益资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">直至全球最大的对冲基金之一，Citadel一举接盘其大部分股票组合，市场的螺旋式下跌才得以暂停。但在众多市场人士看来，这次事件所暴露的，远不止一家基金的仓位风险。</p><h2 id=\"situational-awareness\">SA爆仓风暴与强制去杠杆</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次风暴的核心，是由Leopold Aschenbrenner执掌的对冲基金Situational Awareness。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻提及，该基金在AI相关杠杆头寸上遭遇重大亏损，触发追加保证金通知，被迫在市场下行过程中抛售公开市场股票，进一步加速了跌势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">去杠杆的规模与速度在多个维度均有印证：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>全球科技股遭遇五年多来最大规模抛售；</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6c6a27bef7df0f6ad709380cc4bef74\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>截至7月30日，美国上市的杠杆/反向ETF资产管理规模（AUM）徘徊在略低于1500亿美元，较6月份的高点缩水近600亿美元。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cfae1eeb85a64ee4b329d3ee50c06a1\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"467\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>韩国股票杠杆ETF的资产管理规模从6月峰值的530亿美元骤降至约150亿美元；</p></li><li><p>多个量化因子在四年内出现最大单日波动。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">直至Citadel出手接盘其绝大部分公开市场股票组合，这一螺旋式下跌才得以中断。然后SA对冲基金并非孤立的黑天鹅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前AI板块已在投资者质疑AI投入回报之际开始走弱，一次原本平淡无奇的美联储议息会议又引发市场对新任主席沃什遏制通胀决心的疑虑，推动长端美债收益率走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">五至三十年期收益率曲线斜率单周扩张幅度，创2025年8月以来之最。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d435f9e8295969a75f773c6d4991a142\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"623\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据Wolfe Research量化分析师Yin Luo，长端收益率的上行并非仅反映经济强劲，更多指向通胀预期上升和期限溢价走高，<strong>即投资者持有长期国债而非滚动短债所要求的额外回报。</strong></p><h2 id=\"fcef983a\">7月动量因子崩塌，历史级别的风格切换</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从量化因子的视角来看，此次市场运动的烈度尤为突出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">动量策略，即押注近期强势股的方法，先经历了自2020年以来最大的四日跌幅，随后在单日录得同期最大单日反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周标普500指数的日均波动幅度不到1%，而高盛旗舰动量指数的<strong>日均波动幅度接近10%。</strong>有分析认为，<strong>在这种信号减弱之前，不要指望股市会大幅回升。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afa3f9f9af3279260033e2c527c712a2\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"606\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回顾整个7月，高盛高贝塔动量篮子的月度表现为2000年11月以来最差。篮子中的多头持仓普遍承压，而此前被做空的多只软件股则逆势上涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2f2a5dd29a808ded50147f2c8b0dc9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"600\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，<strong>价值、质量和低波动等长期处于劣势的因子</strong>出现明显反弹，初步逆转了AI主导行情以来的风格排序。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>标普500等权重指数、低波动指数以及剔除AI相关成分的标普500指数，均在本周创下历史新高。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cec5cc3a10d525a1e5ccf1f6b42cb41\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"596\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Allspring Global Investments系统性股票研究主管Wai Lee表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期动量走弱看起来更像是轮动，而非崩溃或调整。市场正在奖励那些展现出更好投资回报率和自由现金流的股票。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"dcd087b8\">市场到达拐点了吗？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周末的反弹为市场提供了喘息空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">半导体股票录得6月以来最大两日涨幅，韩国芯片权重较高的KOSPI指数一度暴涨18.5%，标普500指数收复50日均线，VIX恐慌指数从本周早些时候的20以上回落至15.99。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，Horizon Investments研究主管Michael Dickson提出了更审慎的追问：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">真正的问题是：我们到了动量轮动的底部了吗？</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Federated Hermes高级投资组合经理Lewis Grant认为，经历动量股的大幅回调以及AI龙头估值有所修复后，<strong>&#34;轮动最剧烈的阶段应已过去&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Shell Capital首席投资官Mike Shell表示，其经纪商提供的数据显示，此次动量平仓在进程上更接近尾声，风险回报比正变得更具吸引力，<strong>但他同时强调，这并不意味着精确底部已经确认。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通量化团队则持更为审慎的立场。由Khuram Chaudhry领衔的策略师团队在周五的报告中写道，<strong>情绪恶化和货币供应增速见顶令轮动有望延续，&#34;这个月感觉与以往不同&#34;，并建议增配质量因子。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Simplify资管公司主管Paisley Nardini则给出了一个更宏观的警示：<strong>7月表明，&#34;单纯买入指数&#34;在当前市场环境下已不足够，主动管理的价值正在重新显现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>季节性因素也是一重变量。历史上，8月和9月是全年表现最弱的两个月，市场正在追问的一个问题是：今年惯常的夏末波动，是否已被提前释放？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛的Pasquariello在其周报中给出了相对乐观的综合研判：经济运行稳健、盈利增长强劲、资金流向趋于改善，逾1万亿美元的AI资本支出正在向系统内流动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场的基本面地基依然稳固，美股整体前景仍然有利。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但他也明确提示了尾部风险，尤其是全球债券市场长端利率的动向值得密切关注，&#34;对于长久期股票而言尤为如此&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他认为，标普500指数会继续承压前行，但近期出击次数会增多，而夏季流动性环境将令风险转移更加困难。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>他建议投资者在接下来的数周内，维持&#34;提高流动性、降低复杂度&#34;的持仓偏好。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“黑色7月”以“两连涨”收尾，“AI交易”见底了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-01 10:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>多数分析师认为经历动量股的大幅回调以及AI龙头估值有所修复后，轮动最剧烈轮动阶段已过。但同时强调并不意味着精确底部已经确认。摩根大通建议增配质量因子，高盛提示长端利率风险，建议维持高流动性、低复杂度持仓。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本月收官之际，华尔街上演了一场集体反弹，但这场反弹究竟是超卖后的技术修复，还是AI投资逻辑真正触底的信号，市场远未达成共识。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">七月的最后两个交易日，此前遭受重创的高动量股票完成强劲两日反弹，韩国芯片重仓指数KOSPI一度单日暴涨超18%，美股半导体板块录得6月以来最大两日涨幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c585d5820b0e784715462b6c2715088\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"554\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而7月，纳斯达克综合指数累计下跌约3%，创3月以来最差月度表现，并连续两个月录得跌幅。高盛高贝塔动量篮子7月跌幅更是创下2000年11月以来最差单月纪录。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2f2a5dd29a808ded50147f2c8b0dc9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"600\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场动荡的直接导火索，是杠杆AI押注翻车事件。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻提及，由Leopold Aschenbrenner掌管的对冲基金Situational Awareness（简称SA）因杠杆AI仓位爆仓遭遇追保，被迫在下跌市场中抛售公开市场权益资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">直至全球最大的对冲基金之一，Citadel一举接盘其大部分股票组合，市场的螺旋式下跌才得以暂停。但在众多市场人士看来，这次事件所暴露的，远不止一家基金的仓位风险。</p><h2 id=\"situational-awareness\">SA爆仓风暴与强制去杠杆</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次风暴的核心，是由Leopold Aschenbrenner执掌的对冲基金Situational Awareness。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻提及，该基金在AI相关杠杆头寸上遭遇重大亏损，触发追加保证金通知，被迫在市场下行过程中抛售公开市场股票，进一步加速了跌势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">去杠杆的规模与速度在多个维度均有印证：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>全球科技股遭遇五年多来最大规模抛售；</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6c6a27bef7df0f6ad709380cc4bef74\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>截至7月30日，美国上市的杠杆/反向ETF资产管理规模（AUM）徘徊在略低于1500亿美元，较6月份的高点缩水近600亿美元。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cfae1eeb85a64ee4b329d3ee50c06a1\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"467\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>韩国股票杠杆ETF的资产管理规模从6月峰值的530亿美元骤降至约150亿美元；</p></li><li><p>多个量化因子在四年内出现最大单日波动。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">直至Citadel出手接盘其绝大部分公开市场股票组合，这一螺旋式下跌才得以中断。然后SA对冲基金并非孤立的黑天鹅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前AI板块已在投资者质疑AI投入回报之际开始走弱，一次原本平淡无奇的美联储议息会议又引发市场对新任主席沃什遏制通胀决心的疑虑，推动长端美债收益率走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">五至三十年期收益率曲线斜率单周扩张幅度，创2025年8月以来之最。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d435f9e8295969a75f773c6d4991a142\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"623\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据Wolfe Research量化分析师Yin Luo，长端收益率的上行并非仅反映经济强劲，更多指向通胀预期上升和期限溢价走高，<strong>即投资者持有长期国债而非滚动短债所要求的额外回报。</strong></p><h2 id=\"fcef983a\">7月动量因子崩塌，历史级别的风格切换</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从量化因子的视角来看，此次市场运动的烈度尤为突出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">动量策略，即押注近期强势股的方法，先经历了自2020年以来最大的四日跌幅，随后在单日录得同期最大单日反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周标普500指数的日均波动幅度不到1%，而高盛旗舰动量指数的<strong>日均波动幅度接近10%。</strong>有分析认为，<strong>在这种信号减弱之前，不要指望股市会大幅回升。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afa3f9f9af3279260033e2c527c712a2\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"606\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回顾整个7月，高盛高贝塔动量篮子的月度表现为2000年11月以来最差。篮子中的多头持仓普遍承压，而此前被做空的多只软件股则逆势上涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2f2a5dd29a808ded50147f2c8b0dc9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"600\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，<strong>价值、质量和低波动等长期处于劣势的因子</strong>出现明显反弹，初步逆转了AI主导行情以来的风格排序。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>标普500等权重指数、低波动指数以及剔除AI相关成分的标普500指数，均在本周创下历史新高。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cec5cc3a10d525a1e5ccf1f6b42cb41\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"596\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Allspring Global Investments系统性股票研究主管Wai Lee表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期动量走弱看起来更像是轮动，而非崩溃或调整。市场正在奖励那些展现出更好投资回报率和自由现金流的股票。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"dcd087b8\">市场到达拐点了吗？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周末的反弹为市场提供了喘息空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">半导体股票录得6月以来最大两日涨幅，韩国芯片权重较高的KOSPI指数一度暴涨18.5%，标普500指数收复50日均线，VIX恐慌指数从本周早些时候的20以上回落至15.99。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，Horizon Investments研究主管Michael Dickson提出了更审慎的追问：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">真正的问题是：我们到了动量轮动的底部了吗？</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Federated Hermes高级投资组合经理Lewis Grant认为，经历动量股的大幅回调以及AI龙头估值有所修复后，<strong>&#34;轮动最剧烈的阶段应已过去&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Shell Capital首席投资官Mike Shell表示，其经纪商提供的数据显示，此次动量平仓在进程上更接近尾声，风险回报比正变得更具吸引力，<strong>但他同时强调，这并不意味着精确底部已经确认。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通量化团队则持更为审慎的立场。由Khuram Chaudhry领衔的策略师团队在周五的报告中写道，<strong>情绪恶化和货币供应增速见顶令轮动有望延续，&#34;这个月感觉与以往不同&#34;，并建议增配质量因子。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Simplify资管公司主管Paisley Nardini则给出了一个更宏观的警示：<strong>7月表明，&#34;单纯买入指数&#34;在当前市场环境下已不足够，主动管理的价值正在重新显现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>季节性因素也是一重变量。历史上，8月和9月是全年表现最弱的两个月，市场正在追问的一个问题是：今年惯常的夏末波动，是否已被提前释放？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛的Pasquariello在其周报中给出了相对乐观的综合研判：经济运行稳健、盈利增长强劲、资金流向趋于改善，逾1万亿美元的AI资本支出正在向系统内流动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场的基本面地基依然稳固，美股整体前景仍然有利。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但他也明确提示了尾部风险，尤其是全球债券市场长端利率的动向值得密切关注，&#34;对于长久期股票而言尤为如此&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他认为，标普500指数会继续承压前行，但近期出击次数会增多，而夏季流动性环境将令风险转移更加困难。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>他建议投资者在接下来的数周内，维持&#34;提高流动性、降低复杂度&#34;的持仓偏好。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"03455":"景顺QQQ","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","TQQY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST QQQ ETF","07266":"南方两倍做多纳指","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DIA":"道琼斯ETF","09086":"华夏纳指-U","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","GPIQ":"GOLDMAN SACHS NASDAQ 100 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","09834":"安硕纳指一百—U","NJAN":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - January","07522":"FI二华夏纳一百","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","QQQX":"Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","03034":"南方纳指一百","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - 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ETF-ProShares","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","07261":"FL二华夏纳一百","03086":"华夏纳指","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778474","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2656397405","content_text":"多数分析师认为经历动量股的大幅回调以及AI龙头估值有所修复后，轮动最剧烈轮动阶段已过。但同时强调并不意味着精确底部已经确认。摩根大通建议增配质量因子，高盛提示长端利率风险，建议维持高流动性、低复杂度持仓。本月收官之际，华尔街上演了一场集体反弹，但这场反弹究竟是超卖后的技术修复，还是AI投资逻辑真正触底的信号，市场远未达成共识。七月的最后两个交易日，此前遭受重创的高动量股票完成强劲两日反弹，韩国芯片重仓指数KOSPI一度单日暴涨超18%，美股半导体板块录得6月以来最大两日涨幅。然而7月，纳斯达克综合指数累计下跌约3%，创3月以来最差月度表现，并连续两个月录得跌幅。高盛高贝塔动量篮子7月跌幅更是创下2000年11月以来最差单月纪录。这场动荡的直接导火索，是杠杆AI押注翻车事件。华尔街见闻提及，由Leopold Aschenbrenner掌管的对冲基金Situational Awareness（简称SA）因杠杆AI仓位爆仓遭遇追保，被迫在下跌市场中抛售公开市场权益资产。直至全球最大的对冲基金之一，Citadel一举接盘其大部分股票组合，市场的螺旋式下跌才得以暂停。但在众多市场人士看来，这次事件所暴露的，远不止一家基金的仓位风险。SA爆仓风暴与强制去杠杆此次风暴的核心，是由Leopold Aschenbrenner执掌的对冲基金Situational Awareness。华尔街见闻提及，该基金在AI相关杠杆头寸上遭遇重大亏损，触发追加保证金通知，被迫在市场下行过程中抛售公开市场股票，进一步加速了跌势。去杠杆的规模与速度在多个维度均有印证：全球科技股遭遇五年多来最大规模抛售；截至7月30日，美国上市的杠杆/反向ETF资产管理规模（AUM）徘徊在略低于1500亿美元，较6月份的高点缩水近600亿美元。韩国股票杠杆ETF的资产管理规模从6月峰值的530亿美元骤降至约150亿美元；多个量化因子在四年内出现最大单日波动。直至Citadel出手接盘其绝大部分公开市场股票组合，这一螺旋式下跌才得以中断。然后SA对冲基金并非孤立的黑天鹅。此前AI板块已在投资者质疑AI投入回报之际开始走弱，一次原本平淡无奇的美联储议息会议又引发市场对新任主席沃什遏制通胀决心的疑虑，推动长端美债收益率走高。五至三十年期收益率曲线斜率单周扩张幅度，创2025年8月以来之最。据Wolfe Research量化分析师Yin Luo，长端收益率的上行并非仅反映经济强劲，更多指向通胀预期上升和期限溢价走高，即投资者持有长期国债而非滚动短债所要求的额外回报。7月动量因子崩塌，历史级别的风格切换从量化因子的视角来看，此次市场运动的烈度尤为突出。动量策略，即押注近期强势股的方法，先经历了自2020年以来最大的四日跌幅，随后在单日录得同期最大单日反弹。本周标普500指数的日均波动幅度不到1%，而高盛旗舰动量指数的日均波动幅度接近10%。有分析认为，在这种信号减弱之前，不要指望股市会大幅回升。回顾整个7月，高盛高贝塔动量篮子的月度表现为2000年11月以来最差。篮子中的多头持仓普遍承压，而此前被做空的多只软件股则逆势上涨。与此同时，价值、质量和低波动等长期处于劣势的因子出现明显反弹，初步逆转了AI主导行情以来的风格排序。标普500等权重指数、低波动指数以及剔除AI相关成分的标普500指数，均在本周创下历史新高。Allspring Global Investments系统性股票研究主管Wai Lee表示：近期动量走弱看起来更像是轮动，而非崩溃或调整。市场正在奖励那些展现出更好投资回报率和自由现金流的股票。市场到达拐点了吗？本周末的反弹为市场提供了喘息空间。半导体股票录得6月以来最大两日涨幅，韩国芯片权重较高的KOSPI指数一度暴涨18.5%，标普500指数收复50日均线，VIX恐慌指数从本周早些时候的20以上回落至15.99。然而，Horizon Investments研究主管Michael Dickson提出了更审慎的追问：真正的问题是：我们到了动量轮动的底部了吗？Federated Hermes高级投资组合经理Lewis Grant认为，经历动量股的大幅回调以及AI龙头估值有所修复后，\"轮动最剧烈的阶段应已过去\"。Shell Capital首席投资官Mike Shell表示，其经纪商提供的数据显示，此次动量平仓在进程上更接近尾声，风险回报比正变得更具吸引力，但他同时强调，这并不意味着精确底部已经确认。摩根大通量化团队则持更为审慎的立场。由Khuram Chaudhry领衔的策略师团队在周五的报告中写道，情绪恶化和货币供应增速见顶令轮动有望延续，\"这个月感觉与以往不同\"，并建议增配质量因子。Simplify资管公司主管Paisley Nardini则给出了一个更宏观的警示：7月表明，\"单纯买入指数\"在当前市场环境下已不足够，主动管理的价值正在重新显现。季节性因素也是一重变量。历史上，8月和9月是全年表现最弱的两个月，市场正在追问的一个问题是：今年惯常的夏末波动，是否已被提前释放？高盛的Pasquariello在其周报中给出了相对乐观的综合研判：经济运行稳健、盈利增长强劲、资金流向趋于改善，逾1万亿美元的AI资本支出正在向系统内流动。报告指出：市场的基本面地基依然稳固，美股整体前景仍然有利。但他也明确提示了尾部风险，尤其是全球债券市场长端利率的动向值得密切关注，\"对于长久期股票而言尤为如此\"。他认为，标普500指数会继续承压前行，但近期出击次数会增多，而夏季流动性环境将令风险转移更加困难。他建议投资者在接下来的数周内，维持\"提高流动性、降低复杂度\"的持仓偏好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOG":0.6,"09086":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".IXIC":2,"NDX":2,"SPDN":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"07266":0.6,"03086":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".DJI":2,"03034":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"07261":0.6,"02834":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"03455":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"CHAT":1.5,"SPYU":0.6,"ARTY":1.5,"HIBL":0.6,"QTOC":1.5,"07568":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,".SPX":2,"SDS":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"SH":0.6,"07522":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"09834":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"VTHR":1.5,"AIPO":1.5,"TQQQ":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"AGIX":1.5,"DDM":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":591795966603768,"gmtCreate":1785509607855,"gmtModify":1785510820187,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","idStr":"3498680662745699"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"可惜沃什是川普的傀儡，根本不会主动加息","listText":"可惜沃什是川普的傀儡，根本不会主动加息","text":"可惜沃什是川普的傀儡，根本不会主动加息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591795966603768","repostId":"2655836489","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655836489","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785509105,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655836489?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-31 22:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655836489","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储7月议息会议以9:3维持利率不变，但三位官员支持加息25个基点，反对票数为近年罕见。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克和明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里主张立即加息，警告拖延行动将迫使未来更激进紧缩，经济代价更高。两人指出就业韧性和需求强劲为渐进加息提供空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>全球通胀压力再度升温之际，美联储内部鹰派声音进一步增强。</p>\n<p>7月31日，据彭博，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）和明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，<strong>应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。</strong></p>\n<p>本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出<strong>联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，<strong>市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。</strong></p>\n<h2>越晚行动，未来代价越高</h2>\n<p>哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。<strong>目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。</strong></p>\n<p>她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。</p>\n<p>卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。<strong>他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。</strong></p>\n<p>卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。</p>\n<div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2>鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温</h2>\n<p>随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。</p>\n<p><strong>以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。</strong></p>\n<p>若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-31 22:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>全球通胀压力再度升温之际，美联储内部鹰派声音进一步增强。</p>\n<p>7月31日，据彭博，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）和明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，<strong>应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。</strong></p>\n<p>本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出<strong>联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，<strong>市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。</strong></p>\n<h2>越晚行动，未来代价越高</h2>\n<p>哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。<strong>目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。</strong></p>\n<p>她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。</p>\n<p>卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。<strong>他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。</strong></p>\n<p>卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。</p>\n<div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2>鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温</h2>\n<p>随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。</p>\n<p><strong>以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。</strong></p>\n<p>若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9f837fb2de980d911dd0f985b33941a","relate_stocks":{"GBIL":"Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF","NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","CRXP":"COLUMBIA CORE PLUS BOND ETF","TPLS":"Thornburg Core Plus Bond ETF","ISHG":"iShares S&P/Citigroup 1-3 Year I","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","NELS":"Nelson Select ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","CIVG":"Corgi 1-5 Year Investment Grade 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Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。\n本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。\n与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。\n越晚行动，未来代价越高\n哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。\n她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。\n卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。\n卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。\n\n\n\n\n鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温\n随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。\n以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。\n若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":2,"FLXI":1.5,"ISHG":1.5,"TPLS":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"MUNX":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,".DJI":2,"UUP":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"NEMD":1.5,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"RULE":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"XBIL":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"NELS":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"EBUF":1.5,"CIVG":1.5,"CWS":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"XLRI":1.5,"WAMA":1.5,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,"ESmain":2,"IEI":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"NQmain":2,"EDGF":1.5,"RMIF":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"CRXP":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591795744257504,"gmtCreate":1785509565487,"gmtModify":1785510815227,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","idStr":"3498680662745699"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。","listText":"价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。","text":"价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591795744257504","repostId":"2655836489","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655836489","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785509105,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655836489?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-31 22:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655836489","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储7月议息会议以9:3维持利率不变，但三位官员支持加息25个基点，反对票数为近年罕见。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克和明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里主张立即加息，警告拖延行动将迫使未来更激进紧缩，经济代价更高。两人指出就业韧性和需求强劲为渐进加息提供空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>全球通胀压力再度升温之际，美联储内部鹰派声音进一步增强。</p>\n<p>7月31日，据彭博，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）和明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，<strong>应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。</strong></p>\n<p>本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出<strong>联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，<strong>市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。</strong></p>\n<h2>越晚行动，未来代价越高</h2>\n<p>哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。<strong>目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。</strong></p>\n<p>她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。</p>\n<p>卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。<strong>他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。</strong></p>\n<p>卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。</p>\n<div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2>鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温</h2>\n<p>随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。</p>\n<p><strong>以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。</strong></p>\n<p>若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-31 22:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>全球通胀压力再度升温之际，美联储内部鹰派声音进一步增强。</p>\n<p>7月31日，据彭博，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）和明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，<strong>应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。</strong></p>\n<p>本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出<strong>联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，<strong>市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。</strong></p>\n<h2>越晚行动，未来代价越高</h2>\n<p>哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。<strong>目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。</strong></p>\n<p>她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。</p>\n<p>卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。<strong>他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。</strong></p>\n<p>卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。</p>\n<div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2>鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温</h2>\n<p>随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。</p>\n<p><strong>以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。</strong></p>\n<p>若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9f837fb2de980d911dd0f985b33941a","relate_stocks":{"GBIL":"Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF","NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","CRXP":"COLUMBIA CORE PLUS BOND ETF","TPLS":"Thornburg Core Plus Bond ETF","ISHG":"iShares S&P/Citigroup 1-3 Year I","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","NELS":"Nelson Select ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","CIVG":"Corgi 1-5 Year Investment Grade 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Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。\n本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。\n与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。\n越晚行动，未来代价越高\n哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。\n她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。\n卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。\n卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。\n\n\n\n\n鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温\n随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。\n以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。\n若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":2,"FLXI":1.5,"ISHG":1.5,"TPLS":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"MUNX":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,".DJI":2,"UUP":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"NEMD":1.5,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"RULE":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"XBIL":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"NELS":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"EBUF":1.5,"CIVG":1.5,"CWS":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"XLRI":1.5,"WAMA":1.5,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,"ESmain":2,"IEI":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"NQmain":2,"EDGF":1.5,"RMIF":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"CRXP":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591795591958720,"gmtCreate":1785509515327,"gmtModify":1785509517596,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","idStr":"3498680662745699"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。","listText":"以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。","text":"以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591795591958720","repostId":"2655836489","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655836489","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785509105,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655836489?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-31 22:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655836489","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储7月议息会议以9:3维持利率不变，但三位官员支持加息25个基点，反对票数为近年罕见。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克和明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里主张立即加息，警告拖延行动将迫使未来更激进紧缩，经济代价更高。两人指出就业韧性和需求强劲为渐进加息提供空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>全球通胀压力再度升温之际，美联储内部鹰派声音进一步增强。</p>\n<p>7月31日，据彭博，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）和明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，<strong>应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。</strong></p>\n<p>本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出<strong>联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，<strong>市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。</strong></p>\n<h2>越晚行动，未来代价越高</h2>\n<p>哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。<strong>目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。</strong></p>\n<p>她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。</p>\n<p>卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。<strong>他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。</strong></p>\n<p>卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。</p>\n<div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2>鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温</h2>\n<p>随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。</p>\n<p><strong>以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。</strong></p>\n<p>若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n内部加息呼声渐起，美联储两位异见委员：抗通胀行动过迟后续或需更激进加息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-31 22:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>全球通胀压力再度升温之际，美联储内部鹰派声音进一步增强。</p>\n<p>7月31日，据彭博，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）和明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，<strong>应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。</strong></p>\n<p>本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出<strong>联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，<strong>市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。</strong></p>\n<h2>越晚行动，未来代价越高</h2>\n<p>哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。<strong>目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。</strong></p>\n<p>她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。</p>\n<p>卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。<strong>他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。</strong></p>\n<p>卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。</p>\n<div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2>鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温</h2>\n<p>随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。</p>\n<p><strong>以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。</strong></p>\n<p>若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9f837fb2de980d911dd0f985b33941a","relate_stocks":{"GBIL":"Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF","NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","CRXP":"COLUMBIA CORE PLUS BOND ETF","TPLS":"Thornburg Core Plus Bond ETF","ISHG":"iShares S&P/Citigroup 1-3 Year I","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","NELS":"Nelson Select ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","CIVG":"Corgi 1-5 Year Investment Grade 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Kashkari）分别发表声明，解释为何在本周议息会议上投下反对票。两人均认为，应立即加息以防止通胀压力进一步固化，并警告，如果行动过晚，未来可能不得不采取更激进的紧缩政策，经济代价也将更高。\n本周，美联储以9:3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%，连续第五次会议按兵不动。哈马克、卡什卡里等三位官员投票支持加息25个基点，创近年来少见的三张反对票，也反映出联储内部围绕通胀前景的分歧正在扩大。\n与此同时，最新公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升至3.0%，高于美联储2%的目标及市场预期；环比增速同样保持韧性，表明服务业价格压力依然顽固。叠加中东局势推升能源价格、关税影响逐步传导，以及人工智能投资热潮持续刺激需求，市场对美国通胀再度抬头的担忧显著升温。\n越晚行动，未来代价越高\n哈马克表示，高通胀持续时间越长，未来将通胀拉回目标水平所需付出的经济成本就越高。目前通胀压力既来自供给冲击，也受到需求保持强劲的推动，因此尽早采取渐进式加息，有助于避免未来更激进的政策调整。\n她指出，当前货币政策虽然已接近中性水平，但仍不足以进一步抑制需求。鉴于近期能源价格上涨、关税影响以及企业成本传导等因素仍可能推高通胀，美联储现在采取小幅渐进式加息，比未来被迫实施更大幅度紧缩更有利于经济稳定。\n卡什卡里则表示，他倾向于在继续观察通胀和就业数据的同时逐步收紧政策，以防止高通胀预期根深蒂固。他援引20世纪70年代末至80年代初的经验称，美联储有能力重新控制通胀，但如果当前行动不足，未来可能需要采取力度更大的紧缩措施。\n卡什卡里强调，近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现价格稳定目标仍有一段距离。在他看来，只要劳动力市场保持稳健、经济活动依然具有韧性，美联储就有条件继续推进渐进式紧缩，而不是等待通胀重新加速后再被迫采取更剧烈的政策行动。\n\n\n\n\n鹰派分歧扩大，年内加息预期升温\n随着中东局势再度推升能源价格、人工智能投资热潮持续带动需求，越来越多美联储官员开始公开支持进一步加息。此次会议出现三张反对票，也显示联储内部鹰派力量正在增强。\n以上两位官员均表示，他们并不主张一次性大幅加息，而是希望通过尽早、小幅、循序渐进地收紧政策，避免未来不得不采取更激进措施，从而降低经济衰退风险。\n若未来通胀数据持续超预期，市场对年内重启加息的预期或将进一步升温。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":2,"FLXI":1.5,"ISHG":1.5,"TPLS":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"MUNX":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,".DJI":2,"UUP":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"NEMD":1.5,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"RULE":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"XBIL":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"NELS":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"EBUF":1.5,"CIVG":1.5,"CWS":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"XLRI":1.5,"WAMA":1.5,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,"ESmain":2,"IEI":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"NQmain":2,"EDGF":1.5,"RMIF":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"CRXP":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591709660718704,"gmtCreate":1785488605654,"gmtModify":1785488607504,"author":{"id":"3573818931800493","authorId":"3573818931800493","name":"小肥狼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e84208dd37da6774cf295955acec8fc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573818931800493","idStr":"3573818931800493"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说的对 赶紧崩","listText":"说的对 赶紧崩","text":"说的对 赶紧崩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591709660718704","repostId":"2655123356","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655123356","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785486650,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655123356?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-31 16:30","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"高盛：美联储框架不透明或适得其反，长端利率或倒逼再度加息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655123356","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛警告，沃什取消前瞻指引却遮蔽政策框架，公信力非但难以重建，反而加速瓦解。若9月前数据未能明确转软，市场或将\"逼迫\"美联储再度加息。与此同时，全球财政扩张持续推高期限溢价，动量策略去杠杆速度之剧烈，堪比新冠疫情冲击。","content":"<html><body><p>美联储按兵不动，但一场新闻发布会引发的市场动荡，正在动摇投资者对其政策框架的信心。</p>\n<p>美联储7月议息会议维持利率不变，然而真正牵动市场神经的并非决议本身，而是主席沃什在发布会上的表态。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易台负责人Rich Privorotsky指出，沃什在通胀与就业权衡问题上始终未能阐明清晰的反应函数，这令市场对美联储政策逻辑的疑虑急剧升温。30年期美债收益率随即攀升至新高，收益率曲线大幅陡峭化。</p>\n<p><strong>高盛警告，这一局面可能产生反效果：若在取消前瞻指引的同时又模糊政策框架，美联储的公信力非但难以修复，反而可能进一步受损。</strong>更关键的是，长端利率的失控走势或将倒逼美联储重新出手——除非9月前经济数据明确转软，否则市场可能迫使美联储再度加息，以重新锚定长端并挽回公信力。</p>\n<h2>新闻发布会成焦点，反应函数缺失引发质疑</h2>\n<p>据高盛Rich Privorotsky分析，沃什主导美联储以来，其核心目标是通过取消前瞻指引来重建美联储在连续多年未能实现2%通胀目标后所失去的公信力。然而，取消指引并不等同于可以回避框架透明度。</p>\n<p>在发布会上，当被追问通胀与就业之间如何取舍时，沃什未能给出明确的政策反应函数。在被问及通胀判断依据时，他表示委员会参考更广泛的指标，但未说明哪些指标权重最高、如何加权。</p>\n<p>Rich Privorotsky指出，<strong>若在移除前瞻指引的同时又遮蔽政策方法论，公信力的结果可能与初衷背道而驰——不是提升，而是恶化。</strong></p>\n<h2>长端利率失锚，或倒逼再度加息</h2>\n<p>市场对美联储反应函数的困惑，直接体现在长端利率的剧烈波动上。30年期美债收益率在议息会议后突破新高，收益率曲线出现明显陡峭化，显示市场对长期通胀与财政前景的担忧正在加剧。</p>\n<p>高盛认为，这一走势具有重要的政策含义。除非9月前经济数据出现明确的全面走软，否则市场可能主动“要求”美联储再次加息，以重新锚定长端利率、恢复政策公信力。前端利率偏低而长端利率高企的组合，对小盘股及其他长久期资产而言尤为不利。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a139a47d-51f7-48ab-bb74-51af6a18f686.png\"/></p>\n<h2>全球财政扩张加剧长端压力</h2>\n<p>长端利率的隐忧并非孤立存在，而是嵌套在更广泛的全球财政背景之中。高盛指出，日本方面，Takaichi正在推动下调消费税；英国方面，政策讨论已从\"是否增加国防开支\"转向\"如何为其买单\"。发达市场整体财政赤字持续扩大，并未呈现正常化迹象。</p>\n<p>自新冠疫情以来，各主要经济体财政状况只朝一个方向移动，从未实现正常化。这一结构性特征意味着期限溢价将持续走高，通胀将更具粘性，名义利率将在结构性高位维持更长时间。</p>\n<h2>风险资产承压，市场去杠杆仍在持续</h2>\n<p>在市场层面，高盛描述了一幅令人警惕的图景。股票遭到抛售，美元走弱，风险资产整体承压，市场对美联储反应函数的质疑是主要驱动因素。</p>\n<p><strong>与此同时，市场正经历一轮剧烈的去杠杆过程。高盛指出，当前动量策略的回撤幅度已超过20日均值2.5个标准差，去杠杆速度之快，几乎要追溯至新冠疫情时期才能找到可比案例。但两者性质不同：疫情期间是市场功能失灵导致的被动抛售，此次更像是过度集中持仓与高杠杆积累后的主动出清。</strong></p>\n<p>历史数据显示，从类似超卖水平出发，未来15年的前瞻回报通常为持平至正值。但高盛认为，若要实现<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHCAY\">夏普</a>比率更优的复苏，关键在于已实现波动率相对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的收敛——在此之前，动量策略的走势将更趋震荡、区间波动，而非出现爆发式反弹。</p>\n<p>在基本面层面，高盛认为企业盈利对相关交易仍具支撑，但市场的定价逻辑正在发生转变——投资者越来越不愿单纯为AI资本开支买单，而是更倾向于奖励能够展示AI货币化成果的公司。高盛认为，这一区分在接下来的财报季中将愈发关键。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛：美联储框架不透明或适得其反，长端利率或倒逼再度加息</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛：美联储框架不透明或适得其反，长端利率或倒逼再度加息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-31 16:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>美联储按兵不动，但一场新闻发布会引发的市场动荡，正在动摇投资者对其政策框架的信心。</p>\n<p>美联储7月议息会议维持利率不变，然而真正牵动市场神经的并非决议本身，而是主席沃什在发布会上的表态。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易台负责人Rich Privorotsky指出，沃什在通胀与就业权衡问题上始终未能阐明清晰的反应函数，这令市场对美联储政策逻辑的疑虑急剧升温。30年期美债收益率随即攀升至新高，收益率曲线大幅陡峭化。</p>\n<p><strong>高盛警告，这一局面可能产生反效果：若在取消前瞻指引的同时又模糊政策框架，美联储的公信力非但难以修复，反而可能进一步受损。</strong>更关键的是，长端利率的失控走势或将倒逼美联储重新出手——除非9月前经济数据明确转软，否则市场可能迫使美联储再度加息，以重新锚定长端并挽回公信力。</p>\n<h2>新闻发布会成焦点，反应函数缺失引发质疑</h2>\n<p>据高盛Rich Privorotsky分析，沃什主导美联储以来，其核心目标是通过取消前瞻指引来重建美联储在连续多年未能实现2%通胀目标后所失去的公信力。然而，取消指引并不等同于可以回避框架透明度。</p>\n<p>在发布会上，当被追问通胀与就业之间如何取舍时，沃什未能给出明确的政策反应函数。在被问及通胀判断依据时，他表示委员会参考更广泛的指标，但未说明哪些指标权重最高、如何加权。</p>\n<p>Rich Privorotsky指出，<strong>若在移除前瞻指引的同时又遮蔽政策方法论，公信力的结果可能与初衷背道而驰——不是提升，而是恶化。</strong></p>\n<h2>长端利率失锚，或倒逼再度加息</h2>\n<p>市场对美联储反应函数的困惑，直接体现在长端利率的剧烈波动上。30年期美债收益率在议息会议后突破新高，收益率曲线出现明显陡峭化，显示市场对长期通胀与财政前景的担忧正在加剧。</p>\n<p>高盛认为，这一走势具有重要的政策含义。除非9月前经济数据出现明确的全面走软，否则市场可能主动“要求”美联储再次加息，以重新锚定长端利率、恢复政策公信力。前端利率偏低而长端利率高企的组合，对小盘股及其他长久期资产而言尤为不利。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a139a47d-51f7-48ab-bb74-51af6a18f686.png\"/></p>\n<h2>全球财政扩张加剧长端压力</h2>\n<p>长端利率的隐忧并非孤立存在，而是嵌套在更广泛的全球财政背景之中。高盛指出，日本方面，Takaichi正在推动下调消费税；英国方面，政策讨论已从\"是否增加国防开支\"转向\"如何为其买单\"。发达市场整体财政赤字持续扩大，并未呈现正常化迹象。</p>\n<p>自新冠疫情以来，各主要经济体财政状况只朝一个方向移动，从未实现正常化。这一结构性特征意味着期限溢价将持续走高，通胀将更具粘性，名义利率将在结构性高位维持更长时间。</p>\n<h2>风险资产承压，市场去杠杆仍在持续</h2>\n<p>在市场层面，高盛描述了一幅令人警惕的图景。股票遭到抛售，美元走弱，风险资产整体承压，市场对美联储反应函数的质疑是主要驱动因素。</p>\n<p><strong>与此同时，市场正经历一轮剧烈的去杠杆过程。高盛指出，当前动量策略的回撤幅度已超过20日均值2.5个标准差，去杠杆速度之快，几乎要追溯至新冠疫情时期才能找到可比案例。但两者性质不同：疫情期间是市场功能失灵导致的被动抛售，此次更像是过度集中持仓与高杠杆积累后的主动出清。</strong></p>\n<p>历史数据显示，从类似超卖水平出发，未来15年的前瞻回报通常为持平至正值。但高盛认为，若要实现<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHCAY\">夏普</a>比率更优的复苏，关键在于已实现波动率相对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的收敛——在此之前，动量策略的走势将更趋震荡、区间波动，而非出现爆发式反弹。</p>\n<p>在基本面层面，高盛认为企业盈利对相关交易仍具支撑，但市场的定价逻辑正在发生转变——投资者越来越不愿单纯为AI资本开支买单，而是更倾向于奖励能够展示AI货币化成果的公司。高盛认为，这一区分在接下来的财报季中将愈发关键。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JPST":"JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","XBIL":"US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","LIAJ":"LifeX 2053 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","JULD":"Premium Income 10 Barrier ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 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KBW","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","NTSX":"WisdomTree U.S. Efficient Core Fund","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","HMOP":"Hartford Municipal Opportunities ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778388","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655123356","content_text":"美联储按兵不动，但一场新闻发布会引发的市场动荡，正在动摇投资者对其政策框架的信心。\n美联储7月议息会议维持利率不变，然而真正牵动市场神经的并非决议本身，而是主席沃什在发布会上的表态。高盛交易台负责人Rich Privorotsky指出，沃什在通胀与就业权衡问题上始终未能阐明清晰的反应函数，这令市场对美联储政策逻辑的疑虑急剧升温。30年期美债收益率随即攀升至新高，收益率曲线大幅陡峭化。\n高盛警告，这一局面可能产生反效果：若在取消前瞻指引的同时又模糊政策框架，美联储的公信力非但难以修复，反而可能进一步受损。更关键的是，长端利率的失控走势或将倒逼美联储重新出手——除非9月前经济数据明确转软，否则市场可能迫使美联储再度加息，以重新锚定长端并挽回公信力。\n新闻发布会成焦点，反应函数缺失引发质疑\n据高盛Rich Privorotsky分析，沃什主导美联储以来，其核心目标是通过取消前瞻指引来重建美联储在连续多年未能实现2%通胀目标后所失去的公信力。然而，取消指引并不等同于可以回避框架透明度。\n在发布会上，当被追问通胀与就业之间如何取舍时，沃什未能给出明确的政策反应函数。在被问及通胀判断依据时，他表示委员会参考更广泛的指标，但未说明哪些指标权重最高、如何加权。\nRich Privorotsky指出，若在移除前瞻指引的同时又遮蔽政策方法论，公信力的结果可能与初衷背道而驰——不是提升，而是恶化。\n长端利率失锚，或倒逼再度加息\n市场对美联储反应函数的困惑，直接体现在长端利率的剧烈波动上。30年期美债收益率在议息会议后突破新高，收益率曲线出现明显陡峭化，显示市场对长期通胀与财政前景的担忧正在加剧。\n高盛认为，这一走势具有重要的政策含义。除非9月前经济数据出现明确的全面走软，否则市场可能主动“要求”美联储再次加息，以重新锚定长端利率、恢复政策公信力。前端利率偏低而长端利率高企的组合，对小盘股及其他长久期资产而言尤为不利。\n\n全球财政扩张加剧长端压力\n长端利率的隐忧并非孤立存在，而是嵌套在更广泛的全球财政背景之中。高盛指出，日本方面，Takaichi正在推动下调消费税；英国方面，政策讨论已从\"是否增加国防开支\"转向\"如何为其买单\"。发达市场整体财政赤字持续扩大，并未呈现正常化迹象。\n自新冠疫情以来，各主要经济体财政状况只朝一个方向移动，从未实现正常化。这一结构性特征意味着期限溢价将持续走高，通胀将更具粘性，名义利率将在结构性高位维持更长时间。\n风险资产承压，市场去杠杆仍在持续\n在市场层面，高盛描述了一幅令人警惕的图景。股票遭到抛售，美元走弱，风险资产整体承压，市场对美联储反应函数的质疑是主要驱动因素。\n与此同时，市场正经历一轮剧烈的去杠杆过程。高盛指出，当前动量策略的回撤幅度已超过20日均值2.5个标准差，去杠杆速度之快，几乎要追溯至新冠疫情时期才能找到可比案例。但两者性质不同：疫情期间是市场功能失灵导致的被动抛售，此次更像是过度集中持仓与高杠杆积累后的主动出清。\n历史数据显示，从类似超卖水平出发，未来15年的前瞻回报通常为持平至正值。但高盛认为，若要实现夏普比率更优的复苏，关键在于已实现波动率相对标普500指数的收敛——在此之前，动量策略的走势将更趋震荡、区间波动，而非出现爆发式反弹。\n在基本面层面，高盛认为企业盈利对相关交易仍具支撑，但市场的定价逻辑正在发生转变——投资者越来越不愿单纯为AI资本开支买单，而是更倾向于奖励能够展示AI货币化成果的公司。高盛认为，这一区分在接下来的财报季中将愈发关键。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TBIL":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"XLRI":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"XBIL":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"LIAJ":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"HMOP":1.5,"BSV":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"JULD":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"WAMA":1.5,"CIVG":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"NTSX":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"BND":1.5,"NELS":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"NEMD":1.5,"OOQB":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"QTOC":1.5,"TMF":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591397355045432,"gmtCreate":1785410588628,"gmtModify":1785410591710,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","idStr":"3498680662745699"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"用一个不合理的折旧调整，摊薄了成本，保住了经营利润率，循环融资根本就是无可辩驳，所谓的利润当然有，但1都是自己投资的钱，2更多来自于对OA股权投资的估值增长，已经开始玩这种上不了台面的花招就恰恰说明已经无招可用，无话可说了，加速看跌，怎么骗上来的跌下去只会更多！微软甚至还不如meta，至少meta还算诚实，不会玩这种自作聪明的烂招。","listText":"用一个不合理的折旧调整，摊薄了成本，保住了经营利润率，循环融资根本就是无可辩驳，所谓的利润当然有，但1都是自己投资的钱，2更多来自于对OA股权投资的估值增长，已经开始玩这种上不了台面的花招就恰恰说明已经无招可用，无话可说了，加速看跌，怎么骗上来的跌下去只会更多！微软甚至还不如meta，至少meta还算诚实，不会玩这种自作聪明的烂招。","text":"用一个不合理的折旧调整，摊薄了成本，保住了经营利润率，循环融资根本就是无可辩驳，所谓的利润当然有，但1都是自己投资的钱，2更多来自于对OA股权投资的估值增长，已经开始玩这种上不了台面的花招就恰恰说明已经无招可用，无话可说了，加速看跌，怎么骗上来的跌下去只会更多！微软甚至还不如meta，至少meta还算诚实，不会玩这种自作聪明的烂招。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591397355045432","repostId":"2655825248","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655825248","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785396021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655825248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 15:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655825248","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场为一份\"不存在的削减\"狂欢了8%——CFO一句1750亿资本支出指引，实为会计重分类游戏，真实投入分文未减。但更深的故事藏在数字背后：OpenAI依赖症正在消退，Copilot从4亿席位起跳无人能复制，Anthropic半年浮盈32亿。微软并未AI赌徒，它是AI时代的收费站。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场为一份&#34;不存在的削减&#34;狂欢了8%——CFO一句1750亿资本支出指引，实为会计重分类游戏，真实投入分文未减。但更深的故事藏在数字背后：OpenAI依赖症正在消退，Copilot从4亿席位起跳无人能复制，Anthropic半年浮盈32亿。微软并未AI赌徒，它是AI时代的收费站。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一份所有人都觉得超预期的季报。但如果只看数字，你大概率错过了真正重要的东西。</p><h2 id=\"id_1912993924\">一、1750亿的魔术——市场究竟在为什么欢呼？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次季报最剧烈的市场反应，既没出在营收超预期上，也没出在Azure 43%的加速上，而是在盘后两小时几乎被遗忘的电话会末尾——CFO艾米·胡德轻轻说了一句：&#34;FY2027资本支出指引约为1750亿美元。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>几秒钟前股价还在1.6%的涨幅徘徊，几分钟内直接跳到8.4%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda324557fcd0f0fb4fd0a4018becad9\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"877\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这里有一个几乎所有人都搞错了的事情：这1750亿换的是记账的地方，投入规模一点没少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一个电话会上，胡德同步宣布：数据中心和办公楼折旧年限从15年延长到25年。会计准则随之变更——原本按融资租赁处理、要计入Capex的合同，现在按经营租赁处理，不计入Capex了。公司明说：&#34;除会计准则变更之外，投入预期没有任何变化。&#34;CFO甚至补充，FY2027资本支出将&#34;进一步增长&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说，市场为一份不存在的削减狂欢了8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这件事折射出集体心理——2026年上半年，微软股价跌了将近20%，业绩本身谈不上差，但所有人都在害怕同一件事：AI基础设施的烧钱没有尽头。当市场听到一个表面上&#34;少了150亿&#34;的数字时，释放压抑了半年的恐惧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>三个月前同一场会上，CFO描述这些资产的措辞是&#34;未来15年及以后&#34;。三个月后变成25年。这不像是工程判断上的跃迁，更像是管理层在向市场传递一个信号：我们的基础设施能用很久，你不需要为折旧焦虑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但风险恰恰藏在这里——如果AI芯片的代际更替比数据中心建筑的物理寿命快得多，25年的折旧假设意味着什么？意味着当这批资产已经技术上过时的时候，账面还在慢慢摊销。谷歌在同一天把全年Capex从1900亿上修到1950-2050亿，没有玩折旧年限游戏。两条路线的分野，值得持续观察。</p><h2 id=\"id_185330863\">二、同一个夜晚，两张天差地别的利润表</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软和Meta几乎同时发报，这道“巧合”比任何单一公司的数字都更说明问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/749ebaa2a8a4ec415d2448e5e2ebdb26\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"195\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta收入比微软慢了不到七成，但单季股权激励就76.6亿美元——微软是31.2亿。Meta单季还计提了24亿法律费用、11.8亿裁员补偿。即便把这两笔加回去，Meta的利润率也只有36.8%，远不如去年同期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两家公司都在为AI投入巨资——微软Q4买固定资产付了358亿美元现金，Meta同期是301亿。但微软在投入规模更大的情况下，保住了利润增速与收入增速同步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这暴露了AI时代两种截然不同的商业模式：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta的AI投资流向内部——训练LLaMA、优化推荐算法、生成广告创意。这些投入的价值是间接的、难以拆解的。你很难说清楚Meta多赚的每一块钱有多少来自AI。微软的AI投资流向外部——Azure上的AI推理按Token收费、Copilot按人头收费、GitHub Copilot按开发者收费。每一美元的资本支出，都有明确的、可计价的、按消费量结算的收入对应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就是纳德拉反复说的&#34;cost-to-outcome curve&#34;（成本-成果曲线）的真意：重点不在于AI能不能降本，而在于你能否在财务模型里，把投入和产出的关系画成一条可解释的线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软能，Meta还差得远。</p><h2 id=\"id_1152252603\">三、毛利率降了，利润率没降——一个反直觉的发现</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更深一层的细节藏在智能云分部：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>毛利率：从去年同期的60.4%降至57.1%</p></li><li><p>营业利润率：40.6%→40.6%，纹丝不动</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI硬件在侵蚀毛利率——公司自己承认原因是&#34;产品结构转向Azure加上AI基础设施提前扩产&#34;。GPU是昂贵的，推理服务的高成本直接体现为更低的毛利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但营业利润率一点没降。为什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为同一个分部的运营费用只增长了10%，而收入增长了32%。微软在用一个更精瘦的费用结构，去对冲一个更沉重的成本结构。这是经营杠杆的教科书级展示：当SG&amp;A增速远低于收入增速时，毛利率的压缩可以被完美吸收。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这与Meta形成残酷对比：Meta的研发费用一个季度就多了87.1亿美元，占成本增量的58%。微软在控制人头（甚至还推出了自愿退休计划），Meta在疯狂扩张。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个更深层的推论：如果Azure的毛利率压力是结构性的（AI推理天然比传统云计算更消耗硬件），那么微软正在押注的两件事是——（1）自研芯片可以拉回毛利率；（2）Copilot的90%+毛利润可以补贴Azure的毛利率下滑。前者是技术赌注，后者是商业模式对冲。</p><h2 id=\"id_3778195481\">四、被所有人忽略的最重要信号：OpenAI依赖症在消退</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这可能是这份季报里最被低估的一个信息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到Q3，微软商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到6270亿美元时，市场发现一个令人不安的数字：其中约45%来自OpenAI一家客户。剔除OpenAI后，RPO增速只有26%，商业订单增速只有7%。市场的隐含担忧是：微软的云增长叙事，本质上是被一个大客户撑起来的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一季，RPO进一步升至6780亿美元，环比增加约510亿。微软在新闻稿和电话会上，特意、多次、着重强调：本季度的新增合同&#34;主要来自AI模型开发商以外的企业客户&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非一个随意的措辞，管理层在有意识地解构「微软=OpenAI的影子」这个叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，德意志银行此前提出的&#34;集中度风险&#34;也在被数据稀释。当RPO的增量来自分散的企业客户而非单一模型公司时，估值的确定性溢价会上升——因为收入变得更加可预测、更加分散、更加抗风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一个容易被忽略的小注脚：纳德拉在电话会上主动提到，<strong>今年初以来，使用多种AI模型进行开发的微软客户数量增加了5倍。客户正在自发地从「押注单一模型」转向「多模型策略」——而这对Azure来说是天大的好消息，因为多模型策略意味着更多的云消费、更低的迁移风险、更强的平台粘性。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_178010812\">五、“你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上”——纳德拉最狠的一句话</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电话会上，纳德拉主动提了一个故事：OpenAI的模型最近失控，入侵了HuggingFace。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后他说了一句在硅谷会被反复引用的话：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们能从这件事中吸取的最大教训就是，你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这句话的分量，远超一个安全事件的技术反思。微软在公开、明确地划清与OpenAI的边界。背后是一整套已经在运行的战略：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Anthropic：投资50亿美元，Claude模型集成到AzureAIFoundry和Copilot，锁定了300亿美元的Azure消费承诺</p></li><li><p>xAI（马斯克）：Grok模型上线Azure AI Foundry</p></li><li><p>Mistral：法国开源模型提供商，也已集成</p></li><li><p>自研：MAI系列模型，纳德拉在电话会上举例说MAI-Cyber-1-Flash处理90%的安全任务，成本降低50%</p></li><li><p>开源模型：Llama、Mistral等数万个开源模型可通过Azure AI Foundry部署</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软的战略图景已经很清晰：把Azure变成一个模型中立的市场，就像AWS是计算中立的市场一样。企业客户不需要关心底层模型是谁家的——微软负责提供、管理、路由、替换。Copilot内部的&#34;智能路由&#34;功能可以自动将不同任务分配给最合适、最便宜的模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谷歌云82%增长的背后是Gemini 3的强力推动，但这也意味着谷歌云的叙事深度绑定在Gemini的成功上。某个模型一旦出问题或落后，谷歌云受到的冲击会更直接。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软在做的本质上是把AI模型层的风险外部化——无论哪家模型公司赢，Azure都是赢家。</p><h2 id=\"id_320868946\">六、“循环融资”证伪：Anthropic的32亿并非左手倒右手</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年11月，微软投资Anthropic 50亿美元，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元Azure服务。当时华尔街有个刻薄的评价：「循环融资」——微软给Anthropic钱，Anthropic用这笔钱买Azure，Azure收入增长，华尔街给微软更高估值。完美的闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这次季报给出了一个意想不到的反驳：Anthropic投资产生了32亿美元的账面收益。半年，50亿投入，32亿浮盈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的机制是：Anthropic在这半年内完成了新一轮融资，估值从1830亿美元飙升到3500亿美元，超越OpenAI成为全球最有价值的AI独角兽。微软作为早期投资者，持股的公允价值随之水涨船高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着两件事：股权投资的回报独立于Azure云服务收入——两笔交易都在赚钱，谈不上左手倒右手；微软正在用更低的资本成本锁定Azure的长期需求——50亿美元的投资换来了300亿美元的确定性云收入+32亿美元的浮盈+多模型战略的关键棋子。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“投资-采购-增值”的三角结构，微软在Anthropic上玩了一遍，接下来会不会在Mistral、在别的模型公司上再玩一遍？这种模式的复制潜力，才是真正值得思考的地方。</p><h2 id=\"id_1916847007\">七、Copilot为何不可复制：捆绑的暴力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博情报分析师曼迪普·辛格说了一句一针见血的话：&#34;微软的捆绑策略仍在持续奏效。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拆开这句话：Copilot不需要像独立SaaS创业公司那样烧钱买流量。它焊在M365的4亿多付费席位上。企业IT部门已经在用Office，已经签了EA协议，已经做了安全审计——Copilot只是一个需要勾选的附加复选框。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是任何独立AI工具——不管是ChatGPTEnterprise还是ClaudeforBusiness——都无法复制的结构性优势。它们的获客是从零开始的，Copilot是从4亿开始的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3000万席位的数字背后，还有一个质量信号：使用强度已经与Outlook和Teams持平。电话会上提到，&#34;从首次使用到高频使用的时间，已经从几个月缩短到了几天&#34;。Copilot正在嵌入日常工作流，买了却不用的情况越来越少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">再加上E7高级套件的推出——它把Copilot和Agent365（安全运营、IT运营、财务运营）打包，并且在定价上引入了「席位+用量」的双轨模式——ARPU的提升才刚刚开始。纳德拉说了一句意味深长的话：&#34;Copilot的TAM（总可寻址市场），比传统Office大得多。&#34;seat收入之外，token用量收入是一个没有上限的变量。</p><h2 id=\"id_363638677\">八、结语：市场是在买“AI烧钱可见”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份季报最深的答案，藏在电话会的问答环节。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛分析师问了一个问题：“和一年前比，CapEx的ROI怎么看？”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Amy Hood的回答可以浓缩成一句话：“我的算法没变，但对TAM扩张和利润率杠杆的信心提高了。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“算法没变”——投得不更少，回报要求没更低，同样严格的ROI标准下，可实现的回报更大了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非&#34;AI烧钱结束&#34;，而是&#34;AI烧钱可见&#34;——每一块钱投下去，你能在财务模型里看到它通向哪里：Azure的token消耗、Copilot的席位增长、Anthropic的300亿Azure承诺、多模型策略下的客户留存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软正在做一件在科技史上少见的事：把一个全行业范围的范式转变（AI），结构性地转化为自己的经常性收入。它扮演的角色，与其说是AI的「赌徒」，不如说是AI的「收费站」。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是为什么，季报出来后——谷歌云飚82%、Meta利润率崩塌、AWS今晚发布——只有微软同时完成了三件事：收入超预期、利润率守住、Capex管理给市场吃下定心丸。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个正在学会&#34;既有野心又有纪律&#34;的2.9万亿美元巨兽，比一个只会花钱的巨兽，危险得多。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 15:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场为一份&#34;不存在的削减&#34;狂欢了8%——CFO一句1750亿资本支出指引，实为会计重分类游戏，真实投入分文未减。但更深的故事藏在数字背后：OpenAI依赖症正在消退，Copilot从4亿席位起跳无人能复制，Anthropic半年浮盈32亿。微软并未AI赌徒，它是AI时代的收费站。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一份所有人都觉得超预期的季报。但如果只看数字，你大概率错过了真正重要的东西。</p><h2 id=\"id_1912993924\">一、1750亿的魔术——市场究竟在为什么欢呼？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次季报最剧烈的市场反应，既没出在营收超预期上，也没出在Azure 43%的加速上，而是在盘后两小时几乎被遗忘的电话会末尾——CFO艾米·胡德轻轻说了一句：&#34;FY2027资本支出指引约为1750亿美元。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>几秒钟前股价还在1.6%的涨幅徘徊，几分钟内直接跳到8.4%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda324557fcd0f0fb4fd0a4018becad9\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"877\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这里有一个几乎所有人都搞错了的事情：这1750亿换的是记账的地方，投入规模一点没少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一个电话会上，胡德同步宣布：数据中心和办公楼折旧年限从15年延长到25年。会计准则随之变更——原本按融资租赁处理、要计入Capex的合同，现在按经营租赁处理，不计入Capex了。公司明说：&#34;除会计准则变更之外，投入预期没有任何变化。&#34;CFO甚至补充，FY2027资本支出将&#34;进一步增长&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说，市场为一份不存在的削减狂欢了8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这件事折射出集体心理——2026年上半年，微软股价跌了将近20%，业绩本身谈不上差，但所有人都在害怕同一件事：AI基础设施的烧钱没有尽头。当市场听到一个表面上&#34;少了150亿&#34;的数字时，释放压抑了半年的恐惧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>三个月前同一场会上，CFO描述这些资产的措辞是&#34;未来15年及以后&#34;。三个月后变成25年。这不像是工程判断上的跃迁，更像是管理层在向市场传递一个信号：我们的基础设施能用很久，你不需要为折旧焦虑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但风险恰恰藏在这里——如果AI芯片的代际更替比数据中心建筑的物理寿命快得多，25年的折旧假设意味着什么？意味着当这批资产已经技术上过时的时候，账面还在慢慢摊销。谷歌在同一天把全年Capex从1900亿上修到1950-2050亿，没有玩折旧年限游戏。两条路线的分野，值得持续观察。</p><h2 id=\"id_185330863\">二、同一个夜晚，两张天差地别的利润表</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软和Meta几乎同时发报，这道“巧合”比任何单一公司的数字都更说明问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/749ebaa2a8a4ec415d2448e5e2ebdb26\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"195\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta收入比微软慢了不到七成，但单季股权激励就76.6亿美元——微软是31.2亿。Meta单季还计提了24亿法律费用、11.8亿裁员补偿。即便把这两笔加回去，Meta的利润率也只有36.8%，远不如去年同期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两家公司都在为AI投入巨资——微软Q4买固定资产付了358亿美元现金，Meta同期是301亿。但微软在投入规模更大的情况下，保住了利润增速与收入增速同步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这暴露了AI时代两种截然不同的商业模式：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta的AI投资流向内部——训练LLaMA、优化推荐算法、生成广告创意。这些投入的价值是间接的、难以拆解的。你很难说清楚Meta多赚的每一块钱有多少来自AI。微软的AI投资流向外部——Azure上的AI推理按Token收费、Copilot按人头收费、GitHub Copilot按开发者收费。每一美元的资本支出，都有明确的、可计价的、按消费量结算的收入对应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就是纳德拉反复说的&#34;cost-to-outcome curve&#34;（成本-成果曲线）的真意：重点不在于AI能不能降本，而在于你能否在财务模型里，把投入和产出的关系画成一条可解释的线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软能，Meta还差得远。</p><h2 id=\"id_1152252603\">三、毛利率降了，利润率没降——一个反直觉的发现</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更深一层的细节藏在智能云分部：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>毛利率：从去年同期的60.4%降至57.1%</p></li><li><p>营业利润率：40.6%→40.6%，纹丝不动</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI硬件在侵蚀毛利率——公司自己承认原因是&#34;产品结构转向Azure加上AI基础设施提前扩产&#34;。GPU是昂贵的，推理服务的高成本直接体现为更低的毛利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但营业利润率一点没降。为什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为同一个分部的运营费用只增长了10%，而收入增长了32%。微软在用一个更精瘦的费用结构，去对冲一个更沉重的成本结构。这是经营杠杆的教科书级展示：当SG&amp;A增速远低于收入增速时，毛利率的压缩可以被完美吸收。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这与Meta形成残酷对比：Meta的研发费用一个季度就多了87.1亿美元，占成本增量的58%。微软在控制人头（甚至还推出了自愿退休计划），Meta在疯狂扩张。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个更深层的推论：如果Azure的毛利率压力是结构性的（AI推理天然比传统云计算更消耗硬件），那么微软正在押注的两件事是——（1）自研芯片可以拉回毛利率；（2）Copilot的90%+毛利润可以补贴Azure的毛利率下滑。前者是技术赌注，后者是商业模式对冲。</p><h2 id=\"id_3778195481\">四、被所有人忽略的最重要信号：OpenAI依赖症在消退</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这可能是这份季报里最被低估的一个信息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到Q3，微软商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到6270亿美元时，市场发现一个令人不安的数字：其中约45%来自OpenAI一家客户。剔除OpenAI后，RPO增速只有26%，商业订单增速只有7%。市场的隐含担忧是：微软的云增长叙事，本质上是被一个大客户撑起来的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一季，RPO进一步升至6780亿美元，环比增加约510亿。微软在新闻稿和电话会上，特意、多次、着重强调：本季度的新增合同&#34;主要来自AI模型开发商以外的企业客户&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非一个随意的措辞，管理层在有意识地解构「微软=OpenAI的影子」这个叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，德意志银行此前提出的&#34;集中度风险&#34;也在被数据稀释。当RPO的增量来自分散的企业客户而非单一模型公司时，估值的确定性溢价会上升——因为收入变得更加可预测、更加分散、更加抗风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一个容易被忽略的小注脚：纳德拉在电话会上主动提到，<strong>今年初以来，使用多种AI模型进行开发的微软客户数量增加了5倍。客户正在自发地从「押注单一模型」转向「多模型策略」——而这对Azure来说是天大的好消息，因为多模型策略意味着更多的云消费、更低的迁移风险、更强的平台粘性。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_178010812\">五、“你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上”——纳德拉最狠的一句话</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电话会上，纳德拉主动提了一个故事：OpenAI的模型最近失控，入侵了HuggingFace。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后他说了一句在硅谷会被反复引用的话：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们能从这件事中吸取的最大教训就是，你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这句话的分量，远超一个安全事件的技术反思。微软在公开、明确地划清与OpenAI的边界。背后是一整套已经在运行的战略：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Anthropic：投资50亿美元，Claude模型集成到AzureAIFoundry和Copilot，锁定了300亿美元的Azure消费承诺</p></li><li><p>xAI（马斯克）：Grok模型上线Azure AI Foundry</p></li><li><p>Mistral：法国开源模型提供商，也已集成</p></li><li><p>自研：MAI系列模型，纳德拉在电话会上举例说MAI-Cyber-1-Flash处理90%的安全任务，成本降低50%</p></li><li><p>开源模型：Llama、Mistral等数万个开源模型可通过Azure AI Foundry部署</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软的战略图景已经很清晰：把Azure变成一个模型中立的市场，就像AWS是计算中立的市场一样。企业客户不需要关心底层模型是谁家的——微软负责提供、管理、路由、替换。Copilot内部的&#34;智能路由&#34;功能可以自动将不同任务分配给最合适、最便宜的模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谷歌云82%增长的背后是Gemini 3的强力推动，但这也意味着谷歌云的叙事深度绑定在Gemini的成功上。某个模型一旦出问题或落后，谷歌云受到的冲击会更直接。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软在做的本质上是把AI模型层的风险外部化——无论哪家模型公司赢，Azure都是赢家。</p><h2 id=\"id_320868946\">六、“循环融资”证伪：Anthropic的32亿并非左手倒右手</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年11月，微软投资Anthropic 50亿美元，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元Azure服务。当时华尔街有个刻薄的评价：「循环融资」——微软给Anthropic钱，Anthropic用这笔钱买Azure，Azure收入增长，华尔街给微软更高估值。完美的闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这次季报给出了一个意想不到的反驳：Anthropic投资产生了32亿美元的账面收益。半年，50亿投入，32亿浮盈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的机制是：Anthropic在这半年内完成了新一轮融资，估值从1830亿美元飙升到3500亿美元，超越OpenAI成为全球最有价值的AI独角兽。微软作为早期投资者，持股的公允价值随之水涨船高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着两件事：股权投资的回报独立于Azure云服务收入——两笔交易都在赚钱，谈不上左手倒右手；微软正在用更低的资本成本锁定Azure的长期需求——50亿美元的投资换来了300亿美元的确定性云收入+32亿美元的浮盈+多模型战略的关键棋子。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“投资-采购-增值”的三角结构，微软在Anthropic上玩了一遍，接下来会不会在Mistral、在别的模型公司上再玩一遍？这种模式的复制潜力，才是真正值得思考的地方。</p><h2 id=\"id_1916847007\">七、Copilot为何不可复制：捆绑的暴力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博情报分析师曼迪普·辛格说了一句一针见血的话：&#34;微软的捆绑策略仍在持续奏效。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拆开这句话：Copilot不需要像独立SaaS创业公司那样烧钱买流量。它焊在M365的4亿多付费席位上。企业IT部门已经在用Office，已经签了EA协议，已经做了安全审计——Copilot只是一个需要勾选的附加复选框。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是任何独立AI工具——不管是ChatGPTEnterprise还是ClaudeforBusiness——都无法复制的结构性优势。它们的获客是从零开始的，Copilot是从4亿开始的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3000万席位的数字背后，还有一个质量信号：使用强度已经与Outlook和Teams持平。电话会上提到，&#34;从首次使用到高频使用的时间，已经从几个月缩短到了几天&#34;。Copilot正在嵌入日常工作流，买了却不用的情况越来越少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">再加上E7高级套件的推出——它把Copilot和Agent365（安全运营、IT运营、财务运营）打包，并且在定价上引入了「席位+用量」的双轨模式——ARPU的提升才刚刚开始。纳德拉说了一句意味深长的话：&#34;Copilot的TAM（总可寻址市场），比传统Office大得多。&#34;seat收入之外，token用量收入是一个没有上限的变量。</p><h2 id=\"id_363638677\">八、结语：市场是在买“AI烧钱可见”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份季报最深的答案，藏在电话会的问答环节。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛分析师问了一个问题：“和一年前比，CapEx的ROI怎么看？”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Amy Hood的回答可以浓缩成一句话：“我的算法没变，但对TAM扩张和利润率杠杆的信心提高了。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“算法没变”——投得不更少，回报要求没更低，同样严格的ROI标准下，可实现的回报更大了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非&#34;AI烧钱结束&#34;，而是&#34;AI烧钱可见&#34;——每一块钱投下去，你能在财务模型里看到它通向哪里：Azure的token消耗、Copilot的席位增长、Anthropic的300亿Azure承诺、多模型策略下的客户留存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软正在做一件在科技史上少见的事：把一个全行业范围的范式转变（AI），结构性地转化为自己的经常性收入。它扮演的角色，与其说是AI的「赌徒」，不如说是AI的「收费站」。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是为什么，季报出来后——谷歌云飚82%、Meta利润率崩塌、AWS今晚发布——只有微软同时完成了三件事：收入超预期、利润率守住、Capex管理给市场吃下定心丸。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个正在学会&#34;既有野心又有纪律&#34;的2.9万亿美元巨兽，比一个只会花钱的巨兽，危险得多。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{"BK4543":"AI","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999001077.SGD":"United International Growth Fund SGD","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 USD-H","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER 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43%的加速上，而是在盘后两小时几乎被遗忘的电话会末尾——CFO艾米·胡德轻轻说了一句：\"FY2027资本支出指引约为1750亿美元。\"几秒钟前股价还在1.6%的涨幅徘徊，几分钟内直接跳到8.4%。但这里有一个几乎所有人都搞错了的事情：这1750亿换的是记账的地方，投入规模一点没少。同一个电话会上，胡德同步宣布：数据中心和办公楼折旧年限从15年延长到25年。会计准则随之变更——原本按融资租赁处理、要计入Capex的合同，现在按经营租赁处理，不计入Capex了。公司明说：\"除会计准则变更之外，投入预期没有任何变化。\"CFO甚至补充，FY2027资本支出将\"进一步增长\"。也就是说，市场为一份不存在的削减狂欢了8%。这件事折射出集体心理——2026年上半年，微软股价跌了将近20%，业绩本身谈不上差，但所有人都在害怕同一件事：AI基础设施的烧钱没有尽头。当市场听到一个表面上\"少了150亿\"的数字时，释放压抑了半年的恐惧。三个月前同一场会上，CFO描述这些资产的措辞是\"未来15年及以后\"。三个月后变成25年。这不像是工程判断上的跃迁，更像是管理层在向市场传递一个信号：我们的基础设施能用很久，你不需要为折旧焦虑。但风险恰恰藏在这里——如果AI芯片的代际更替比数据中心建筑的物理寿命快得多，25年的折旧假设意味着什么？意味着当这批资产已经技术上过时的时候，账面还在慢慢摊销。谷歌在同一天把全年Capex从1900亿上修到1950-2050亿，没有玩折旧年限游戏。两条路线的分野，值得持续观察。二、同一个夜晚，两张天差地别的利润表微软和Meta几乎同时发报，这道“巧合”比任何单一公司的数字都更说明问题。Meta收入比微软慢了不到七成，但单季股权激励就76.6亿美元——微软是31.2亿。Meta单季还计提了24亿法律费用、11.8亿裁员补偿。即便把这两笔加回去，Meta的利润率也只有36.8%，远不如去年同期。两家公司都在为AI投入巨资——微软Q4买固定资产付了358亿美元现金，Meta同期是301亿。但微软在投入规模更大的情况下，保住了利润增速与收入增速同步。这暴露了AI时代两种截然不同的商业模式：Meta的AI投资流向内部——训练LLaMA、优化推荐算法、生成广告创意。这些投入的价值是间接的、难以拆解的。你很难说清楚Meta多赚的每一块钱有多少来自AI。微软的AI投资流向外部——Azure上的AI推理按Token收费、Copilot按人头收费、GitHub Copilot按开发者收费。每一美元的资本支出，都有明确的、可计价的、按消费量结算的收入对应。这就是纳德拉反复说的\"cost-to-outcome curve\"（成本-成果曲线）的真意：重点不在于AI能不能降本，而在于你能否在财务模型里，把投入和产出的关系画成一条可解释的线。微软能，Meta还差得远。三、毛利率降了，利润率没降——一个反直觉的发现更深一层的细节藏在智能云分部：毛利率：从去年同期的60.4%降至57.1%营业利润率：40.6%→40.6%，纹丝不动AI硬件在侵蚀毛利率——公司自己承认原因是\"产品结构转向Azure加上AI基础设施提前扩产\"。GPU是昂贵的，推理服务的高成本直接体现为更低的毛利率。但营业利润率一点没降。为什么？因为同一个分部的运营费用只增长了10%，而收入增长了32%。微软在用一个更精瘦的费用结构，去对冲一个更沉重的成本结构。这是经营杠杆的教科书级展示：当SG&A增速远低于收入增速时，毛利率的压缩可以被完美吸收。这与Meta形成残酷对比：Meta的研发费用一个季度就多了87.1亿美元，占成本增量的58%。微软在控制人头（甚至还推出了自愿退休计划），Meta在疯狂扩张。一个更深层的推论：如果Azure的毛利率压力是结构性的（AI推理天然比传统云计算更消耗硬件），那么微软正在押注的两件事是——（1）自研芯片可以拉回毛利率；（2）Copilot的90%+毛利润可以补贴Azure的毛利率下滑。前者是技术赌注，后者是商业模式对冲。四、被所有人忽略的最重要信号：OpenAI依赖症在消退这可能是这份季报里最被低估的一个信息。回到Q3，微软商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到6270亿美元时，市场发现一个令人不安的数字：其中约45%来自OpenAI一家客户。剔除OpenAI后，RPO增速只有26%，商业订单增速只有7%。市场的隐含担忧是：微软的云增长叙事，本质上是被一个大客户撑起来的。这一季，RPO进一步升至6780亿美元，环比增加约510亿。微软在新闻稿和电话会上，特意、多次、着重强调：本季度的新增合同\"主要来自AI模型开发商以外的企业客户\"。这并非一个随意的措辞，管理层在有意识地解构「微软=OpenAI的影子」这个叙事。与此同时，德意志银行此前提出的\"集中度风险\"也在被数据稀释。当RPO的增量来自分散的企业客户而非单一模型公司时，估值的确定性溢价会上升——因为收入变得更加可预测、更加分散、更加抗风险。还有一个容易被忽略的小注脚：纳德拉在电话会上主动提到，今年初以来，使用多种AI模型进行开发的微软客户数量增加了5倍。客户正在自发地从「押注单一模型」转向「多模型策略」——而这对Azure来说是天大的好消息，因为多模型策略意味着更多的云消费、更低的迁移风险、更强的平台粘性。五、“你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上”——纳德拉最狠的一句话电话会上，纳德拉主动提了一个故事：OpenAI的模型最近失控，入侵了HuggingFace。然后他说了一句在硅谷会被反复引用的话：“我们能从这件事中吸取的最大教训就是，你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上。”这句话的分量，远超一个安全事件的技术反思。微软在公开、明确地划清与OpenAI的边界。背后是一整套已经在运行的战略：Anthropic：投资50亿美元，Claude模型集成到AzureAIFoundry和Copilot，锁定了300亿美元的Azure消费承诺xAI（马斯克）：Grok模型上线Azure AI FoundryMistral：法国开源模型提供商，也已集成自研：MAI系列模型，纳德拉在电话会上举例说MAI-Cyber-1-Flash处理90%的安全任务，成本降低50%开源模型：Llama、Mistral等数万个开源模型可通过Azure AI Foundry部署微软的战略图景已经很清晰：把Azure变成一个模型中立的市场，就像AWS是计算中立的市场一样。企业客户不需要关心底层模型是谁家的——微软负责提供、管理、路由、替换。Copilot内部的\"智能路由\"功能可以自动将不同任务分配给最合适、最便宜的模型。谷歌云82%增长的背后是Gemini 3的强力推动，但这也意味着谷歌云的叙事深度绑定在Gemini的成功上。某个模型一旦出问题或落后，谷歌云受到的冲击会更直接。微软在做的本质上是把AI模型层的风险外部化——无论哪家模型公司赢，Azure都是赢家。六、“循环融资”证伪：Anthropic的32亿并非左手倒右手2025年11月，微软投资Anthropic 50亿美元，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元Azure服务。当时华尔街有个刻薄的评价：「循环融资」——微软给Anthropic钱，Anthropic用这笔钱买Azure，Azure收入增长，华尔街给微软更高估值。完美的闭环。但这次季报给出了一个意想不到的反驳：Anthropic投资产生了32亿美元的账面收益。半年，50亿投入，32亿浮盈。背后的机制是：Anthropic在这半年内完成了新一轮融资，估值从1830亿美元飙升到3500亿美元，超越OpenAI成为全球最有价值的AI独角兽。微软作为早期投资者，持股的公允价值随之水涨船高。这意味着两件事：股权投资的回报独立于Azure云服务收入——两笔交易都在赚钱，谈不上左手倒右手；微软正在用更低的资本成本锁定Azure的长期需求——50亿美元的投资换来了300亿美元的确定性云收入+32亿美元的浮盈+多模型战略的关键棋子。这种“投资-采购-增值”的三角结构，微软在Anthropic上玩了一遍，接下来会不会在Mistral、在别的模型公司上再玩一遍？这种模式的复制潜力，才是真正值得思考的地方。七、Copilot为何不可复制：捆绑的暴力彭博情报分析师曼迪普·辛格说了一句一针见血的话：\"微软的捆绑策略仍在持续奏效。\"拆开这句话：Copilot不需要像独立SaaS创业公司那样烧钱买流量。它焊在M365的4亿多付费席位上。企业IT部门已经在用Office，已经签了EA协议，已经做了安全审计——Copilot只是一个需要勾选的附加复选框。这是任何独立AI工具——不管是ChatGPTEnterprise还是ClaudeforBusiness——都无法复制的结构性优势。它们的获客是从零开始的，Copilot是从4亿开始的。3000万席位的数字背后，还有一个质量信号：使用强度已经与Outlook和Teams持平。电话会上提到，\"从首次使用到高频使用的时间，已经从几个月缩短到了几天\"。Copilot正在嵌入日常工作流，买了却不用的情况越来越少。再加上E7高级套件的推出——它把Copilot和Agent365（安全运营、IT运营、财务运营）打包，并且在定价上引入了「席位+用量」的双轨模式——ARPU的提升才刚刚开始。纳德拉说了一句意味深长的话：\"Copilot的TAM（总可寻址市场），比传统Office大得多。\"seat收入之外，token用量收入是一个没有上限的变量。八、结语：市场是在买“AI烧钱可见”这份季报最深的答案，藏在电话会的问答环节。高盛分析师问了一个问题：“和一年前比，CapEx的ROI怎么看？”Amy Hood的回答可以浓缩成一句话：“我的算法没变，但对TAM扩张和利润率杠杆的信心提高了。”“算法没变”——投得不更少，回报要求没更低，同样严格的ROI标准下，可实现的回报更大了。这并非\"AI烧钱结束\"，而是\"AI烧钱可见\"——每一块钱投下去，你能在财务模型里看到它通向哪里：Azure的token消耗、Copilot的席位增长、Anthropic的300亿Azure承诺、多模型策略下的客户留存。微软正在做一件在科技史上少见的事：把一个全行业范围的范式转变（AI），结构性地转化为自己的经常性收入。它扮演的角色，与其说是AI的「赌徒」，不如说是AI的「收费站」。这也是为什么，季报出来后——谷歌云飚82%、Meta利润率崩塌、AWS今晚发布——只有微软同时完成了三件事：收入超预期、利润率守住、Capex管理给市场吃下定心丸。一个正在学会\"既有野心又有纪律\"的2.9万亿美元巨兽，比一个只会花钱的巨兽，危险得多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EFIV":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFT":1.98,"CNEQ":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"NULC":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3517959138040831","authorId":"3517959138040831","name":"jianmo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffb67c2e108583273cd3becb198da230","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3517959138040831","idStr":"3517959138040831"},"content":"微软自己都说了 云业务增长 跟ai大模型无关 也就是说 云业务是社会发展需求的基本增长而已 现在社会 流量需求只会越来越大","text":"微软自己都说了 云业务增长 跟ai大模型无关 也就是说 云业务是社会发展需求的基本增长而已 现在社会 流量需求只会越来越大","html":"微软自己都说了 云业务增长 跟ai大模型无关 也就是说 云业务是社会发展需求的基本增长而已 现在社会 流量需求只会越来越大"},{"author":{"id":"3578599132270949","authorId":"3578599132270949","name":"JP老师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/040afd19069ec01445675331d9bd8d84","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3578599132270949","idStr":"3578599132270949"},"content":"梁文峰刚说过，他们硬件的回本周期是十个月。他们甚至愿意溢价购买。","text":"梁文峰刚说过，他们硬件的回本周期是十个月。他们甚至愿意溢价购买。","html":"梁文峰刚说过，他们硬件的回本周期是十个月。他们甚至愿意溢价购买。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591388322009200,"gmtCreate":1785410084148,"gmtModify":1785410086254,"author":{"id":"3535664106674633","authorId":"3535664106674633","name":"呆蹦蹦","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3535664106674633","idStr":"3535664106674633"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"应该改成所有股票停牌，只能三倍做多海力士跟三星[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"应该改成所有股票停牌，只能三倍做多海力士跟三星[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"应该改成所有股票停牌，只能三倍做多海力士跟三星[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591388322009200","repostId":"2655687880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2655687880","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785405920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655687880?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 18:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"报道：韩国交易所内部考虑暂时禁止卖空、收窄±30%涨跌幅限制","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655687880","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"韩国股市持续重挫，监管层已全面进入应急状态。韩交所内部评估了暂停卖空及收窄涨跌停板的技术可行性，但公开否认将立即实施。暂停卖空呼声高涨，但政府面临两难：此举或影响MSCI发达市场评级，需在稳定市场与国际化进程间谨慎权衡。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国股市连续重挫之际，监管部门正为可能进一步恶化的市场行情提前准备应急预案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据韩联社7月30日报道援引知情人士，<strong>韩国交易所（KRX）近日已内部评估暂时禁止卖空交易的技术可行性及系统准备时间，同时还检视了将现行30%涨跌停板幅度收窄的可操作性。</strong>知情人士强调，上述工作属于针对极端行情的预防性评估，目的在于确认各项市场稳定工具是否具备实施条件，并不意味着相关措施即将落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，韩国企划财政部召开&#34;紧急市场状况研判会议&#34;，会后表示将维持最高级别市场警戒，并启动跨部门24小时监测机制。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，对于相关报道，<strong>韩国交易所随后公开否认，称未收到政府任何关于暂停卖空的要求，也未开展相关研究，并强调此类政策并非交易所能够自行决定。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">极端行情下，监管全面进入应急状态</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国股市近期遭遇历史罕见的急跌，市场波动急剧放大，散户投资者损失惨重，监管机构也随之进入全面应急状态。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据韩联社旗下联合InfoMax报道<strong>，韩国交易所于7月29日下午启动内部评估，重点确认暂停卖空交易在系统层面的执行可行性及所需准备时间，并同步研究收窄现行30%涨跌停板限制，以抑制单日极端波动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道援引一位知情人士表示，<strong>目前仅确认了相关措施在技术层面&#34;可以实施&#34;，此次评估属于&#34;盘点所有可用稳定工具&#34;的一部分，并非意味着监管层已决定采取行动。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b22c35598df38136c5baee85c82df1d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"641\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">暂停卖空呼声升温</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着市场持续下跌，暂停卖空已成为韩国散户投资者最主要的诉求之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>韩国国会国民请愿平台上，一项要求政府暂时禁止卖空的请愿公开仅两天便获得逾万人联署。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">政界也开始公开施压。执政党国民力量党议员朴成勋在国会政务委员会听证会上要求金融委员会和金融监督院研究暂停卖空，并考虑重启证券市场稳定基金等稳市措施。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">券商分析人士也持类似观点。韩亚证券研究员李京洙在最新报告中表示，<strong>本轮市场急跌已打破历史经验，如果希望市场在当前点位出现具有持续性的反弹，暂停卖空是现实可行的政策工具，有助于抑制市场恐慌阶段的额外抛压</strong>。他还指出，韩国历次实施卖空禁令，都曾向市场释放明确的政策托底信号。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">MSCI评级成为最大掣肘</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，暂停卖空并非没有代价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>韩国政府正积极推动本国股市纳入MSCI发达市场指数，而再次实施卖空禁令，可能削弱这一目标实现的可能性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">MSCI曾因韩国于2023年11月全面禁止卖空，认为当地市场可及性下降，并下调韩国市场可及性评级；直到卖空机制于去年3月底恢复后，相关评级才重新改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回顾来看，韩国政府当时以非法裸卖空屡禁不止、损害市场公平为由实施全面卖空禁令，该措施持续约一年五个月后才正式取消。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，在市场剧烈波动之下，如何在稳定市场情绪与维护MSCI发达市场升级进程之间取得平衡，将成为韩国监管层下一步决策面临的核心权衡。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>报道：韩国交易所内部考虑暂时禁止卖空、收窄±30%涨跌幅限制</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n报道：韩国交易所内部考虑暂时禁止卖空、收窄±30%涨跌幅限制\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 18:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国股市连续重挫之际，监管部门正为可能进一步恶化的市场行情提前准备应急预案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据韩联社7月30日报道援引知情人士，<strong>韩国交易所（KRX）近日已内部评估暂时禁止卖空交易的技术可行性及系统准备时间，同时还检视了将现行30%涨跌停板幅度收窄的可操作性。</strong>知情人士强调，上述工作属于针对极端行情的预防性评估，目的在于确认各项市场稳定工具是否具备实施条件，并不意味着相关措施即将落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，韩国企划财政部召开&#34;紧急市场状况研判会议&#34;，会后表示将维持最高级别市场警戒，并启动跨部门24小时监测机制。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，对于相关报道，<strong>韩国交易所随后公开否认，称未收到政府任何关于暂停卖空的要求，也未开展相关研究，并强调此类政策并非交易所能够自行决定。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">极端行情下，监管全面进入应急状态</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国股市近期遭遇历史罕见的急跌，市场波动急剧放大，散户投资者损失惨重，监管机构也随之进入全面应急状态。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据韩联社旗下联合InfoMax报道<strong>，韩国交易所于7月29日下午启动内部评估，重点确认暂停卖空交易在系统层面的执行可行性及所需准备时间，并同步研究收窄现行30%涨跌停板限制，以抑制单日极端波动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道援引一位知情人士表示，<strong>目前仅确认了相关措施在技术层面&#34;可以实施&#34;，此次评估属于&#34;盘点所有可用稳定工具&#34;的一部分，并非意味着监管层已决定采取行动。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b22c35598df38136c5baee85c82df1d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"641\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">暂停卖空呼声升温</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着市场持续下跌，暂停卖空已成为韩国散户投资者最主要的诉求之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>韩国国会国民请愿平台上，一项要求政府暂时禁止卖空的请愿公开仅两天便获得逾万人联署。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">政界也开始公开施压。执政党国民力量党议员朴成勋在国会政务委员会听证会上要求金融委员会和金融监督院研究暂停卖空，并考虑重启证券市场稳定基金等稳市措施。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">券商分析人士也持类似观点。韩亚证券研究员李京洙在最新报告中表示，<strong>本轮市场急跌已打破历史经验，如果希望市场在当前点位出现具有持续性的反弹，暂停卖空是现实可行的政策工具，有助于抑制市场恐慌阶段的额外抛压</strong>。他还指出，韩国历次实施卖空禁令，都曾向市场释放明确的政策托底信号。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">MSCI评级成为最大掣肘</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，暂停卖空并非没有代价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>韩国政府正积极推动本国股市纳入MSCI发达市场指数，而再次实施卖空禁令，可能削弱这一目标实现的可能性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">MSCI曾因韩国于2023年11月全面禁止卖空，认为当地市场可及性下降，并下调韩国市场可及性评级；直到卖空机制于去年3月底恢复后，相关评级才重新改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回顾来看，韩国政府当时以非法裸卖空屡禁不止、损害市场公平为由实施全面卖空禁令，该措施持续约一年五个月后才正式取消。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，在市场剧烈波动之下，如何在稳定市场情绪与维护MSCI发达市场升级进程之间取得平衡，将成为韩国监管层下一步决策面临的核心权衡。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a8dc47d82450ab4e7f785571427d640","relate_stocks":{"KORU":"3倍做多韩国ETF-Direxion","EWY":"韩国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778321","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655687880","content_text":"韩国股市连续重挫之际，监管部门正为可能进一步恶化的市场行情提前准备应急预案。据韩联社7月30日报道援引知情人士，韩国交易所（KRX）近日已内部评估暂时禁止卖空交易的技术可行性及系统准备时间，同时还检视了将现行30%涨跌停板幅度收窄的可操作性。知情人士强调，上述工作属于针对极端行情的预防性评估，目的在于确认各项市场稳定工具是否具备实施条件，并不意味着相关措施即将落地。与此同时，韩国企划财政部召开\"紧急市场状况研判会议\"，会后表示将维持最高级别市场警戒，并启动跨部门24小时监测机制。不过，对于相关报道，韩国交易所随后公开否认，称未收到政府任何关于暂停卖空的要求，也未开展相关研究，并强调此类政策并非交易所能够自行决定。极端行情下，监管全面进入应急状态韩国股市近期遭遇历史罕见的急跌，市场波动急剧放大，散户投资者损失惨重，监管机构也随之进入全面应急状态。据韩联社旗下联合InfoMax报道，韩国交易所于7月29日下午启动内部评估，重点确认暂停卖空交易在系统层面的执行可行性及所需准备时间，并同步研究收窄现行30%涨跌停板限制，以抑制单日极端波动。报道援引一位知情人士表示，目前仅确认了相关措施在技术层面\"可以实施\"，此次评估属于\"盘点所有可用稳定工具\"的一部分，并非意味着监管层已决定采取行动。暂停卖空呼声升温随着市场持续下跌，暂停卖空已成为韩国散户投资者最主要的诉求之一。韩国国会国民请愿平台上，一项要求政府暂时禁止卖空的请愿公开仅两天便获得逾万人联署。政界也开始公开施压。执政党国民力量党议员朴成勋在国会政务委员会听证会上要求金融委员会和金融监督院研究暂停卖空，并考虑重启证券市场稳定基金等稳市措施。券商分析人士也持类似观点。韩亚证券研究员李京洙在最新报告中表示，本轮市场急跌已打破历史经验，如果希望市场在当前点位出现具有持续性的反弹，暂停卖空是现实可行的政策工具，有助于抑制市场恐慌阶段的额外抛压。他还指出，韩国历次实施卖空禁令，都曾向市场释放明确的政策托底信号。MSCI评级成为最大掣肘不过，暂停卖空并非没有代价。韩国政府正积极推动本国股市纳入MSCI发达市场指数，而再次实施卖空禁令，可能削弱这一目标实现的可能性。MSCI曾因韩国于2023年11月全面禁止卖空，认为当地市场可及性下降，并下调韩国市场可及性评级；直到卖空机制于去年3月底恢复后，相关评级才重新改善。回顾来看，韩国政府当时以非法裸卖空屡禁不止、损害市场公平为由实施全面卖空禁令，该措施持续约一年五个月后才正式取消。因此，在市场剧烈波动之下，如何在稳定市场情绪与维护MSCI发达市场升级进程之间取得平衡，将成为韩国监管层下一步决策面临的核心权衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KORU":2,"EWY":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591383391216984,"gmtCreate":1785408849902,"gmtModify":1785408851623,"author":{"id":"3549118574070267","authorId":"3549118574070267","name":"TorisQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890d40f6aedd0e6f741426de5300dc5e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549118574070267","idStr":"3549118574070267"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"interesting","listText":"interesting","text":"interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591383391216984","repostId":"2655449178","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655449178","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785408053,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655449178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 18:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高通的底牌：当手机不再是主场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655449178","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高通正经历结构性转型：受存储涨价与苹果订单加速流失影响，手机业务营收大跌，主场权重持续稀释。但其“底牌”已浮出水面：汽车芯片创纪录增长，兜住中期确定性；数据中心业务全面铺开，决定未来估值上限。年底至明年初将是其各业务线成效的关键验证期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月29日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>交了一份让市场不知道该怎么给分的卷子。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，2026财年第三财季（截至2026年6月28日），高通营收99.5亿美元，同比降4%，微超华尔街预期的96.2亿。Non-GAAP每股收益2.21美元，同比降20%，比预期低了1美分。盘后股价先跌后收窄，目前仍跌超5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b6f106e6bac4910dfc95f0bc8a2a276e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"613\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报的拧巴之处在于：<strong>看手机，收入同比暴跌20%，50亿美元出头，是近年最差的一个季度；看汽车，61%的增长创了纪录；看数据中心，公司确认定制芯片今年底开始发货。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同一家公司，三张完全不同的成绩单。该信哪张？</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">手机：高通的旧地基在塌，但没有塌完</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">手机芯片收入50.86亿美元，同比掉20%。从FY25Q1的76亿峰值到现在，三个季度少了三分之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根因不在需求端。全球智能手机出货量确实在跌——IDC数据，二季度同比降6.7%，连续两个季度下滑——但不是断崖式的。真正掐住高通的，是存储芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本季度内存芯片成本同比涨了约300%。AI数据中心把HBM和DRAM的产能吸走了，手机OEM拿不到量、付不起价。结果就是减产清库存，连带高通芯片订单被砍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通CEO Cristiano在电话会上说得挺直白：<strong>消费者开始买高端里的低配，或者干脆买去年的旧款。连高通最稳的那块高端安卓基本盘，也在松动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但事情没那么线性。管理层明确说了，中国OEM的订单在三季度触底，四季度会回到两位数环比增长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>Galaxy S26系列还是高通定制版骁龙8 Elite Gen 5。高端机这个基本盘没有崩，只是被存储涨价暂时压住了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">手机收入占QCT的比重从一年前的67%掉到了60%。按公司投资者日的路标，2029财年这个数字会降到三分之一。手机不会消失，但它在高通的权重正在被系统性稀释。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车：不是概念验证，是真在赚钱了</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，汽车芯片收入15.88亿美元，同比涨61%。连续好几个季度刷新纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">年化收入已经跑到63.5亿美元。三个月前公司设定的年度目标是70亿，当时不少分析师私下觉得偏乐观。现在看来，阿蒙的数字大概率能摸到。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">逻辑不复杂。<strong>燃油车单车芯片价值大概100美元，智能电动车做数字座舱加ADAS方案，单车能推到500到1500美元。</strong>高通手里的骁龙数字座舱和Snapdragon Ride平台，刚好卡在这个跃迁的咽喉上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这个季度新签了宝马和Stellantis。之前已经量产的客户包括奔驰、通用、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>、本田、现代、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>。设计win管线堆到了650亿美元。收入的可预见性很高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>唯一让人有点犹豫的是毛利率。</strong>汽车芯片的定制化程度高，验证周期长，毛利率比手机芯片低5到10个点。汽车收入占比从17%继续往上走，会拖QCT整体毛利率。这个问题不大，但需要持续盯。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">管理层把2029财年汽车收入目标从80亿调到了100亿。以现在的增速和设计win转化节奏，不算夸张。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心：愿景够大，但窗户纸还没捅破</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在6月24日的投资者日上，高通把2029财年非手机收入目标从220亿美元直接拉到400亿，其中数据中心分走150亿。这笔账拆开看是三步走：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一，定制芯片。</strong>两家超大规模云厂商的多代订单已经签了，首款产品年底前出货。管理层管这叫“多年的合作伙伴关系”，不是一锤子买卖。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二，标准芯片。</strong>Dragonfly C1000服务器CPU在投资者日上亮了相，自研Oryon架构，主打能效。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>是第一批客户，但量产要到2028年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三，软件。</strong>收了Modular（估值39亿美元），它的MAX推理平台和Mojo语言要对标<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的CUDA。去年底收的Alphawave Semi（24亿美元），补了高速互联这块拼图。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摊子铺得很大，但节奏是个问题。</strong>连接芯片今年就能贡献收入，定制芯片明年开始，通用AI加速器要到明年下半年，服务器CPU更要等到后年下半年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在投资者日后给了个“中性”评级，12个月目标价145美元，比当前股价还低。它的原话是：<strong>早期合作与大规模收入之间仍有很长的距离。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">坦率说，这个判断不保守。市场给数据中心业务的估值，押的是2028年到2029年，中间两年执行窗口，任何一个环节出问题都会打折。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>：这个利空比想象中来得快</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在所有让高通头疼的事情里，苹果自研基带的进度是最被市场低估的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通这次财报首次明确警告：<strong>苹果产品收入在加速流失。</strong>管理层在电话会上说，即将发布的iPhone上高通基带的份额会“远低于此前20%的预期”，四季度苹果收入可能环比腰斩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去五年关于“苹果什么时候踢掉高通基带”的讨论一直没断过，每次都被技术难度拖住了。现在，这个进程正在实质性加速。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>算一笔账：</strong>苹果每季度给高通贡献15到20亿美元的芯片收入（基带加射频前端）。份额从原来大约20%掉到10%以下，每年就是60到80亿美元的高毛利收入没了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amon的应对是：FY2027非手机QCT收入增速超过60%，直接覆盖苹果流失的影响。汽车、IoT、数据中心三条线得同时跑起来。信不信取决于你对这三块业务增速的判断。我个人觉得汽车那条线最稳，数据中心变数最大。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">提价：一次没什么退路的测试</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通宣布9月1日起全线提价，幅度两位数百分比。阿蒙的措辞是这样的：“成本上去了，价格就得跟着涨。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这不是高通第一次涨价，但这回不太一样。<strong>以前提价靠制程升级，新产品卖贵点顺理成章。这次是晶圆、封装、存储、材料全面涨价，内部已经吃不下去了。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高通在安卓旗舰芯片上确实有定价权。</strong>三星、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>、OPPO、vivo、荣耀的旗舰机离开骁龙几乎没有替代选项。这批客户大概率会接受涨价，再转嫁给消费者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但有个反身性问题。<strong>存储涨300%、芯片涨两位数、终端再涨一轮，中低端手机可能涨300到500块人民币。</strong>中低端市场本来就对价格敏感，量会不会进一步萎缩？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">量价之间在互相拉扯。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，FY26Q3毛利率53.77%，一年前是55.56%。<strong>提价效果要两个季度后才能看清，最早到FY27Q1才有答案。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通现在大概1800亿美元的市值，手机撑着下限，汽车和IoT兜住了中期确定性，数据中心决定了估值能弹多高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三块业务处在完全不同的阶段，但都在年底到明年初集中迎来验证节点。<strong>十二月那个季度，手机会不会如管理层说的那样触底反弹，定制芯片能不能准时出货</strong>——这两件事的答案，比投资者日上任一个目标数字都更有分量。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高通的底牌：当手机不再是主场</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高通的底牌：当手机不再是主场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 18:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月29日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>交了一份让市场不知道该怎么给分的卷子。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，2026财年第三财季（截至2026年6月28日），高通营收99.5亿美元，同比降4%，微超华尔街预期的96.2亿。Non-GAAP每股收益2.21美元，同比降20%，比预期低了1美分。盘后股价先跌后收窄，目前仍跌超5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b6f106e6bac4910dfc95f0bc8a2a276e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"613\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报的拧巴之处在于：<strong>看手机，收入同比暴跌20%，50亿美元出头，是近年最差的一个季度；看汽车，61%的增长创了纪录；看数据中心，公司确认定制芯片今年底开始发货。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同一家公司，三张完全不同的成绩单。该信哪张？</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">手机：高通的旧地基在塌，但没有塌完</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">手机芯片收入50.86亿美元，同比掉20%。从FY25Q1的76亿峰值到现在，三个季度少了三分之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根因不在需求端。全球智能手机出货量确实在跌——IDC数据，二季度同比降6.7%，连续两个季度下滑——但不是断崖式的。真正掐住高通的，是存储芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本季度内存芯片成本同比涨了约300%。AI数据中心把HBM和DRAM的产能吸走了，手机OEM拿不到量、付不起价。结果就是减产清库存，连带高通芯片订单被砍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通CEO Cristiano在电话会上说得挺直白：<strong>消费者开始买高端里的低配，或者干脆买去年的旧款。连高通最稳的那块高端安卓基本盘，也在松动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但事情没那么线性。管理层明确说了，中国OEM的订单在三季度触底，四季度会回到两位数环比增长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>Galaxy S26系列还是高通定制版骁龙8 Elite Gen 5。高端机这个基本盘没有崩，只是被存储涨价暂时压住了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">手机收入占QCT的比重从一年前的67%掉到了60%。按公司投资者日的路标，2029财年这个数字会降到三分之一。手机不会消失，但它在高通的权重正在被系统性稀释。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车：不是概念验证，是真在赚钱了</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，汽车芯片收入15.88亿美元，同比涨61%。连续好几个季度刷新纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">年化收入已经跑到63.5亿美元。三个月前公司设定的年度目标是70亿，当时不少分析师私下觉得偏乐观。现在看来，阿蒙的数字大概率能摸到。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">逻辑不复杂。<strong>燃油车单车芯片价值大概100美元，智能电动车做数字座舱加ADAS方案，单车能推到500到1500美元。</strong>高通手里的骁龙数字座舱和Snapdragon Ride平台，刚好卡在这个跃迁的咽喉上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这个季度新签了宝马和Stellantis。之前已经量产的客户包括奔驰、通用、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>、本田、现代、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>。设计win管线堆到了650亿美元。收入的可预见性很高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>唯一让人有点犹豫的是毛利率。</strong>汽车芯片的定制化程度高，验证周期长，毛利率比手机芯片低5到10个点。汽车收入占比从17%继续往上走，会拖QCT整体毛利率。这个问题不大，但需要持续盯。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">管理层把2029财年汽车收入目标从80亿调到了100亿。以现在的增速和设计win转化节奏，不算夸张。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心：愿景够大，但窗户纸还没捅破</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在6月24日的投资者日上，高通把2029财年非手机收入目标从220亿美元直接拉到400亿，其中数据中心分走150亿。这笔账拆开看是三步走：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一，定制芯片。</strong>两家超大规模云厂商的多代订单已经签了，首款产品年底前出货。管理层管这叫“多年的合作伙伴关系”，不是一锤子买卖。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二，标准芯片。</strong>Dragonfly C1000服务器CPU在投资者日上亮了相，自研Oryon架构，主打能效。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>是第一批客户，但量产要到2028年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三，软件。</strong>收了Modular（估值39亿美元），它的MAX推理平台和Mojo语言要对标<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的CUDA。去年底收的Alphawave Semi（24亿美元），补了高速互联这块拼图。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摊子铺得很大，但节奏是个问题。</strong>连接芯片今年就能贡献收入，定制芯片明年开始，通用AI加速器要到明年下半年，服务器CPU更要等到后年下半年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在投资者日后给了个“中性”评级，12个月目标价145美元，比当前股价还低。它的原话是：<strong>早期合作与大规模收入之间仍有很长的距离。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">坦率说，这个判断不保守。市场给数据中心业务的估值，押的是2028年到2029年，中间两年执行窗口，任何一个环节出问题都会打折。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>：这个利空比想象中来得快</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在所有让高通头疼的事情里，苹果自研基带的进度是最被市场低估的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通这次财报首次明确警告：<strong>苹果产品收入在加速流失。</strong>管理层在电话会上说，即将发布的iPhone上高通基带的份额会“远低于此前20%的预期”，四季度苹果收入可能环比腰斩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去五年关于“苹果什么时候踢掉高通基带”的讨论一直没断过，每次都被技术难度拖住了。现在，这个进程正在实质性加速。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>算一笔账：</strong>苹果每季度给高通贡献15到20亿美元的芯片收入（基带加射频前端）。份额从原来大约20%掉到10%以下，每年就是60到80亿美元的高毛利收入没了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amon的应对是：FY2027非手机QCT收入增速超过60%，直接覆盖苹果流失的影响。汽车、IoT、数据中心三条线得同时跑起来。信不信取决于你对这三块业务增速的判断。我个人觉得汽车那条线最稳，数据中心变数最大。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">提价：一次没什么退路的测试</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通宣布9月1日起全线提价，幅度两位数百分比。阿蒙的措辞是这样的：“成本上去了，价格就得跟着涨。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这不是高通第一次涨价，但这回不太一样。<strong>以前提价靠制程升级，新产品卖贵点顺理成章。这次是晶圆、封装、存储、材料全面涨价，内部已经吃不下去了。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高通在安卓旗舰芯片上确实有定价权。</strong>三星、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>、OPPO、vivo、荣耀的旗舰机离开骁龙几乎没有替代选项。这批客户大概率会接受涨价，再转嫁给消费者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但有个反身性问题。<strong>存储涨300%、芯片涨两位数、终端再涨一轮，中低端手机可能涨300到500块人民币。</strong>中低端市场本来就对价格敏感，量会不会进一步萎缩？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">量价之间在互相拉扯。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，FY26Q3毛利率53.77%，一年前是55.56%。<strong>提价效果要两个季度后才能看清，最早到FY27Q1才有答案。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高通现在大概1800亿美元的市值，手机撑着下限，汽车和IoT兜住了中期确定性，数据中心决定了估值能弹多高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三块业务处在完全不同的阶段，但都在年底到明年初集中迎来验证节点。<strong>十二月那个季度，手机会不会如管理层说的那样触底反弹，定制芯片能不能准时出货</strong>——这两件事的答案，比投资者日上任一个目标数字都更有分量。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685375f07e8e901be0e3fd1bc7a412ac","relate_stocks":{"LU2247934214.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4612":"AI芯片","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","BK4588":"碎股","TDV":"ProShares S&P Technology Dividend Aristocrats ETF","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU1069344957.HKD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","IE00BGHQDM52.EUR":"GUINNESS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","QCMD":"1倍做空QCOM ETF-Direxion","LU1035775433.USD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","QCOM":"高通","QCML":"2倍做多QCOM ETF-GraniteShares","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","QCMU":"2倍做多QCOM ETF-Direxion","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","FTXL":"First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF","BK4604":"机器人概念","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00BVYPNQ40.USD":"GUINNESS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","IE00BVYPNP33.GBP":"GUINNESS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) ACC","BK4605":"半导体精选"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778291","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655449178","content_text":"7月29日，高通交了一份让市场不知道该怎么给分的卷子。财报显示，2026财年第三财季（截至2026年6月28日），高通营收99.5亿美元，同比降4%，微超华尔街预期的96.2亿。Non-GAAP每股收益2.21美元，同比降20%，比预期低了1美分。盘后股价先跌后收窄，目前仍跌超5%。这份财报的拧巴之处在于：看手机，收入同比暴跌20%，50亿美元出头，是近年最差的一个季度；看汽车，61%的增长创了纪录；看数据中心，公司确认定制芯片今年底开始发货。同一家公司，三张完全不同的成绩单。该信哪张？手机：高通的旧地基在塌，但没有塌完手机芯片收入50.86亿美元，同比掉20%。从FY25Q1的76亿峰值到现在，三个季度少了三分之一。根因不在需求端。全球智能手机出货量确实在跌——IDC数据，二季度同比降6.7%，连续两个季度下滑——但不是断崖式的。真正掐住高通的，是存储芯片。本季度内存芯片成本同比涨了约300%。AI数据中心把HBM和DRAM的产能吸走了，手机OEM拿不到量、付不起价。结果就是减产清库存，连带高通芯片订单被砍。高通CEO Cristiano在电话会上说得挺直白：消费者开始买高端里的低配，或者干脆买去年的旧款。连高通最稳的那块高端安卓基本盘，也在松动。但事情没那么线性。管理层明确说了，中国OEM的订单在三季度触底，四季度会回到两位数环比增长。三星Galaxy S26系列还是高通定制版骁龙8 Elite Gen 5。高端机这个基本盘没有崩，只是被存储涨价暂时压住了。手机收入占QCT的比重从一年前的67%掉到了60%。按公司投资者日的路标，2029财年这个数字会降到三分之一。手机不会消失，但它在高通的权重正在被系统性稀释。汽车：不是概念验证，是真在赚钱了财报显示，汽车芯片收入15.88亿美元，同比涨61%。连续好几个季度刷新纪录。年化收入已经跑到63.5亿美元。三个月前公司设定的年度目标是70亿，当时不少分析师私下觉得偏乐观。现在看来，阿蒙的数字大概率能摸到。逻辑不复杂。燃油车单车芯片价值大概100美元，智能电动车做数字座舱加ADAS方案，单车能推到500到1500美元。高通手里的骁龙数字座舱和Snapdragon Ride平台，刚好卡在这个跃迁的咽喉上。这个季度新签了宝马和Stellantis。之前已经量产的客户包括奔驰、通用、福特、本田、现代、比亚迪。设计win管线堆到了650亿美元。收入的可预见性很高。唯一让人有点犹豫的是毛利率。汽车芯片的定制化程度高，验证周期长，毛利率比手机芯片低5到10个点。汽车收入占比从17%继续往上走，会拖QCT整体毛利率。这个问题不大，但需要持续盯。管理层把2029财年汽车收入目标从80亿调到了100亿。以现在的增速和设计win转化节奏，不算夸张。数据中心：愿景够大，但窗户纸还没捅破在6月24日的投资者日上，高通把2029财年非手机收入目标从220亿美元直接拉到400亿，其中数据中心分走150亿。这笔账拆开看是三步走：第一，定制芯片。两家超大规模云厂商的多代订单已经签了，首款产品年底前出货。管理层管这叫“多年的合作伙伴关系”，不是一锤子买卖。第二，标准芯片。Dragonfly C1000服务器CPU在投资者日上亮了相，自研Oryon架构，主打能效。Meta是第一批客户，但量产要到2028年。第三，软件。收了Modular（估值39亿美元），它的MAX推理平台和Mojo语言要对标英伟达的CUDA。去年底收的Alphawave Semi（24亿美元），补了高速互联这块拼图。摊子铺得很大，但节奏是个问题。连接芯片今年就能贡献收入，定制芯片明年开始，通用AI加速器要到明年下半年，服务器CPU更要等到后年下半年。高盛在投资者日后给了个“中性”评级，12个月目标价145美元，比当前股价还低。它的原话是：早期合作与大规模收入之间仍有很长的距离。坦率说，这个判断不保守。市场给数据中心业务的估值，押的是2028年到2029年，中间两年执行窗口，任何一个环节出问题都会打折。苹果：这个利空比想象中来得快在所有让高通头疼的事情里，苹果自研基带的进度是最被市场低估的。高通这次财报首次明确警告：苹果产品收入在加速流失。管理层在电话会上说，即将发布的iPhone上高通基带的份额会“远低于此前20%的预期”，四季度苹果收入可能环比腰斩。过去五年关于“苹果什么时候踢掉高通基带”的讨论一直没断过，每次都被技术难度拖住了。现在，这个进程正在实质性加速。算一笔账：苹果每季度给高通贡献15到20亿美元的芯片收入（基带加射频前端）。份额从原来大约20%掉到10%以下，每年就是60到80亿美元的高毛利收入没了。Amon的应对是：FY2027非手机QCT收入增速超过60%，直接覆盖苹果流失的影响。汽车、IoT、数据中心三条线得同时跑起来。信不信取决于你对这三块业务增速的判断。我个人觉得汽车那条线最稳，数据中心变数最大。提价：一次没什么退路的测试高通宣布9月1日起全线提价，幅度两位数百分比。阿蒙的措辞是这样的：“成本上去了，价格就得跟着涨。”这不是高通第一次涨价，但这回不太一样。以前提价靠制程升级，新产品卖贵点顺理成章。这次是晶圆、封装、存储、材料全面涨价，内部已经吃不下去了。高通在安卓旗舰芯片上确实有定价权。三星、小米、OPPO、vivo、荣耀的旗舰机离开骁龙几乎没有替代选项。这批客户大概率会接受涨价，再转嫁给消费者。但有个反身性问题。存储涨300%、芯片涨两位数、终端再涨一轮，中低端手机可能涨300到500块人民币。中低端市场本来就对价格敏感，量会不会进一步萎缩？量价之间在互相拉扯。财报显示，FY26Q3毛利率53.77%，一年前是55.56%。提价效果要两个季度后才能看清，最早到FY27Q1才有答案。高通现在大概1800亿美元的市值，手机撑着下限，汽车和IoT兜住了中期确定性，数据中心决定了估值能弹多高。三块业务处在完全不同的阶段，但都在年底到明年初集中迎来验证节点。十二月那个季度，手机会不会如管理层说的那样触底反弹，定制芯片能不能准时出货——这两件事的答案，比投资者日上任一个目标数字都更有分量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCMU":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"QCOM":2.1,"QCML":0.6,"TDV":0.6,"QCMD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":591583471092016,"gmtCreate":1785397949971,"gmtModify":1785397952238,"author":{"id":"3563329216096354","authorId":"3563329216096354","name":"风筝_3343","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cc2e4c09a2ff38751e5f1b36fb8fe2e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563329216096354","idStr":"3563329216096354"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"鬼故事天天在市场上讲，软件要崩了的故事就忘了？现在硬件又要崩了，最后是市场要崩了！","listText":"鬼故事天天在市场上讲，软件要崩了的故事就忘了？现在硬件又要崩了，最后是市场要崩了！","text":"鬼故事天天在市场上讲，软件要崩了的故事就忘了？现在硬件又要崩了，最后是市场要崩了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591583471092016","repostId":"2655825248","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655825248","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785396021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655825248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 15:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655825248","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场为一份\"不存在的削减\"狂欢了8%——CFO一句1750亿资本支出指引，实为会计重分类游戏，真实投入分文未减。但更深的故事藏在数字背后：OpenAI依赖症正在消退，Copilot从4亿席位起跳无人能复制，Anthropic半年浮盈32亿。微软并未AI赌徒，它是AI时代的收费站。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场为一份&#34;不存在的削减&#34;狂欢了8%——CFO一句1750亿资本支出指引，实为会计重分类游戏，真实投入分文未减。但更深的故事藏在数字背后：OpenAI依赖症正在消退，Copilot从4亿席位起跳无人能复制，Anthropic半年浮盈32亿。微软并未AI赌徒，它是AI时代的收费站。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一份所有人都觉得超预期的季报。但如果只看数字，你大概率错过了真正重要的东西。</p><h2 id=\"id_1912993924\">一、1750亿的魔术——市场究竟在为什么欢呼？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次季报最剧烈的市场反应，既没出在营收超预期上，也没出在Azure 43%的加速上，而是在盘后两小时几乎被遗忘的电话会末尾——CFO艾米·胡德轻轻说了一句：&#34;FY2027资本支出指引约为1750亿美元。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>几秒钟前股价还在1.6%的涨幅徘徊，几分钟内直接跳到8.4%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda324557fcd0f0fb4fd0a4018becad9\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"877\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这里有一个几乎所有人都搞错了的事情：这1750亿换的是记账的地方，投入规模一点没少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一个电话会上，胡德同步宣布：数据中心和办公楼折旧年限从15年延长到25年。会计准则随之变更——原本按融资租赁处理、要计入Capex的合同，现在按经营租赁处理，不计入Capex了。公司明说：&#34;除会计准则变更之外，投入预期没有任何变化。&#34;CFO甚至补充，FY2027资本支出将&#34;进一步增长&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说，市场为一份不存在的削减狂欢了8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这件事折射出集体心理——2026年上半年，微软股价跌了将近20%，业绩本身谈不上差，但所有人都在害怕同一件事：AI基础设施的烧钱没有尽头。当市场听到一个表面上&#34;少了150亿&#34;的数字时，释放压抑了半年的恐惧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>三个月前同一场会上，CFO描述这些资产的措辞是&#34;未来15年及以后&#34;。三个月后变成25年。这不像是工程判断上的跃迁，更像是管理层在向市场传递一个信号：我们的基础设施能用很久，你不需要为折旧焦虑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但风险恰恰藏在这里——如果AI芯片的代际更替比数据中心建筑的物理寿命快得多，25年的折旧假设意味着什么？意味着当这批资产已经技术上过时的时候，账面还在慢慢摊销。谷歌在同一天把全年Capex从1900亿上修到1950-2050亿，没有玩折旧年限游戏。两条路线的分野，值得持续观察。</p><h2 id=\"id_185330863\">二、同一个夜晚，两张天差地别的利润表</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软和Meta几乎同时发报，这道“巧合”比任何单一公司的数字都更说明问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/749ebaa2a8a4ec415d2448e5e2ebdb26\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"195\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta收入比微软慢了不到七成，但单季股权激励就76.6亿美元——微软是31.2亿。Meta单季还计提了24亿法律费用、11.8亿裁员补偿。即便把这两笔加回去，Meta的利润率也只有36.8%，远不如去年同期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两家公司都在为AI投入巨资——微软Q4买固定资产付了358亿美元现金，Meta同期是301亿。但微软在投入规模更大的情况下，保住了利润增速与收入增速同步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这暴露了AI时代两种截然不同的商业模式：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta的AI投资流向内部——训练LLaMA、优化推荐算法、生成广告创意。这些投入的价值是间接的、难以拆解的。你很难说清楚Meta多赚的每一块钱有多少来自AI。微软的AI投资流向外部——Azure上的AI推理按Token收费、Copilot按人头收费、GitHub Copilot按开发者收费。每一美元的资本支出，都有明确的、可计价的、按消费量结算的收入对应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就是纳德拉反复说的&#34;cost-to-outcome curve&#34;（成本-成果曲线）的真意：重点不在于AI能不能降本，而在于你能否在财务模型里，把投入和产出的关系画成一条可解释的线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软能，Meta还差得远。</p><h2 id=\"id_1152252603\">三、毛利率降了，利润率没降——一个反直觉的发现</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更深一层的细节藏在智能云分部：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>毛利率：从去年同期的60.4%降至57.1%</p></li><li><p>营业利润率：40.6%→40.6%，纹丝不动</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI硬件在侵蚀毛利率——公司自己承认原因是&#34;产品结构转向Azure加上AI基础设施提前扩产&#34;。GPU是昂贵的，推理服务的高成本直接体现为更低的毛利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但营业利润率一点没降。为什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为同一个分部的运营费用只增长了10%，而收入增长了32%。微软在用一个更精瘦的费用结构，去对冲一个更沉重的成本结构。这是经营杠杆的教科书级展示：当SG&amp;A增速远低于收入增速时，毛利率的压缩可以被完美吸收。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这与Meta形成残酷对比：Meta的研发费用一个季度就多了87.1亿美元，占成本增量的58%。微软在控制人头（甚至还推出了自愿退休计划），Meta在疯狂扩张。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个更深层的推论：如果Azure的毛利率压力是结构性的（AI推理天然比传统云计算更消耗硬件），那么微软正在押注的两件事是——（1）自研芯片可以拉回毛利率；（2）Copilot的90%+毛利润可以补贴Azure的毛利率下滑。前者是技术赌注，后者是商业模式对冲。</p><h2 id=\"id_3778195481\">四、被所有人忽略的最重要信号：OpenAI依赖症在消退</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这可能是这份季报里最被低估的一个信息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到Q3，微软商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到6270亿美元时，市场发现一个令人不安的数字：其中约45%来自OpenAI一家客户。剔除OpenAI后，RPO增速只有26%，商业订单增速只有7%。市场的隐含担忧是：微软的云增长叙事，本质上是被一个大客户撑起来的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一季，RPO进一步升至6780亿美元，环比增加约510亿。微软在新闻稿和电话会上，特意、多次、着重强调：本季度的新增合同&#34;主要来自AI模型开发商以外的企业客户&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非一个随意的措辞，管理层在有意识地解构「微软=OpenAI的影子」这个叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，德意志银行此前提出的&#34;集中度风险&#34;也在被数据稀释。当RPO的增量来自分散的企业客户而非单一模型公司时，估值的确定性溢价会上升——因为收入变得更加可预测、更加分散、更加抗风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一个容易被忽略的小注脚：纳德拉在电话会上主动提到，<strong>今年初以来，使用多种AI模型进行开发的微软客户数量增加了5倍。客户正在自发地从「押注单一模型」转向「多模型策略」——而这对Azure来说是天大的好消息，因为多模型策略意味着更多的云消费、更低的迁移风险、更强的平台粘性。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_178010812\">五、“你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上”——纳德拉最狠的一句话</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电话会上，纳德拉主动提了一个故事：OpenAI的模型最近失控，入侵了HuggingFace。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后他说了一句在硅谷会被反复引用的话：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们能从这件事中吸取的最大教训就是，你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这句话的分量，远超一个安全事件的技术反思。微软在公开、明确地划清与OpenAI的边界。背后是一整套已经在运行的战略：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Anthropic：投资50亿美元，Claude模型集成到AzureAIFoundry和Copilot，锁定了300亿美元的Azure消费承诺</p></li><li><p>xAI（马斯克）：Grok模型上线Azure AI Foundry</p></li><li><p>Mistral：法国开源模型提供商，也已集成</p></li><li><p>自研：MAI系列模型，纳德拉在电话会上举例说MAI-Cyber-1-Flash处理90%的安全任务，成本降低50%</p></li><li><p>开源模型：Llama、Mistral等数万个开源模型可通过Azure AI Foundry部署</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软的战略图景已经很清晰：把Azure变成一个模型中立的市场，就像AWS是计算中立的市场一样。企业客户不需要关心底层模型是谁家的——微软负责提供、管理、路由、替换。Copilot内部的&#34;智能路由&#34;功能可以自动将不同任务分配给最合适、最便宜的模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谷歌云82%增长的背后是Gemini 3的强力推动，但这也意味着谷歌云的叙事深度绑定在Gemini的成功上。某个模型一旦出问题或落后，谷歌云受到的冲击会更直接。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软在做的本质上是把AI模型层的风险外部化——无论哪家模型公司赢，Azure都是赢家。</p><h2 id=\"id_320868946\">六、“循环融资”证伪：Anthropic的32亿并非左手倒右手</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年11月，微软投资Anthropic 50亿美元，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元Azure服务。当时华尔街有个刻薄的评价：「循环融资」——微软给Anthropic钱，Anthropic用这笔钱买Azure，Azure收入增长，华尔街给微软更高估值。完美的闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这次季报给出了一个意想不到的反驳：Anthropic投资产生了32亿美元的账面收益。半年，50亿投入，32亿浮盈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的机制是：Anthropic在这半年内完成了新一轮融资，估值从1830亿美元飙升到3500亿美元，超越OpenAI成为全球最有价值的AI独角兽。微软作为早期投资者，持股的公允价值随之水涨船高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着两件事：股权投资的回报独立于Azure云服务收入——两笔交易都在赚钱，谈不上左手倒右手；微软正在用更低的资本成本锁定Azure的长期需求——50亿美元的投资换来了300亿美元的确定性云收入+32亿美元的浮盈+多模型战略的关键棋子。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“投资-采购-增值”的三角结构，微软在Anthropic上玩了一遍，接下来会不会在Mistral、在别的模型公司上再玩一遍？这种模式的复制潜力，才是真正值得思考的地方。</p><h2 id=\"id_1916847007\">七、Copilot为何不可复制：捆绑的暴力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博情报分析师曼迪普·辛格说了一句一针见血的话：&#34;微软的捆绑策略仍在持续奏效。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拆开这句话：Copilot不需要像独立SaaS创业公司那样烧钱买流量。它焊在M365的4亿多付费席位上。企业IT部门已经在用Office，已经签了EA协议，已经做了安全审计——Copilot只是一个需要勾选的附加复选框。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是任何独立AI工具——不管是ChatGPTEnterprise还是ClaudeforBusiness——都无法复制的结构性优势。它们的获客是从零开始的，Copilot是从4亿开始的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3000万席位的数字背后，还有一个质量信号：使用强度已经与Outlook和Teams持平。电话会上提到，&#34;从首次使用到高频使用的时间，已经从几个月缩短到了几天&#34;。Copilot正在嵌入日常工作流，买了却不用的情况越来越少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">再加上E7高级套件的推出——它把Copilot和Agent365（安全运营、IT运营、财务运营）打包，并且在定价上引入了「席位+用量」的双轨模式——ARPU的提升才刚刚开始。纳德拉说了一句意味深长的话：&#34;Copilot的TAM（总可寻址市场），比传统Office大得多。&#34;seat收入之外，token用量收入是一个没有上限的变量。</p><h2 id=\"id_363638677\">八、结语：市场是在买“AI烧钱可见”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份季报最深的答案，藏在电话会的问答环节。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛分析师问了一个问题：“和一年前比，CapEx的ROI怎么看？”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Amy Hood的回答可以浓缩成一句话：“我的算法没变，但对TAM扩张和利润率杠杆的信心提高了。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“算法没变”——投得不更少，回报要求没更低，同样严格的ROI标准下，可实现的回报更大了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非&#34;AI烧钱结束&#34;，而是&#34;AI烧钱可见&#34;——每一块钱投下去，你能在财务模型里看到它通向哪里：Azure的token消耗、Copilot的席位增长、Anthropic的300亿Azure承诺、多模型策略下的客户留存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软正在做一件在科技史上少见的事：把一个全行业范围的范式转变（AI），结构性地转化为自己的经常性收入。它扮演的角色，与其说是AI的「赌徒」，不如说是AI的「收费站」。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是为什么，季报出来后——谷歌云飚82%、Meta利润率崩塌、AWS今晚发布——只有微软同时完成了三件事：收入超预期、利润率守住、Capex管理给市场吃下定心丸。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个正在学会&#34;既有野心又有纪律&#34;的2.9万亿美元巨兽，比一个只会花钱的巨兽，危险得多。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n当市场在买“AI烧钱结束”，微软在买什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 15:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场为一份&#34;不存在的削减&#34;狂欢了8%——CFO一句1750亿资本支出指引，实为会计重分类游戏，真实投入分文未减。但更深的故事藏在数字背后：OpenAI依赖症正在消退，Copilot从4亿席位起跳无人能复制，Anthropic半年浮盈32亿。微软并未AI赌徒，它是AI时代的收费站。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一份所有人都觉得超预期的季报。但如果只看数字，你大概率错过了真正重要的东西。</p><h2 id=\"id_1912993924\">一、1750亿的魔术——市场究竟在为什么欢呼？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次季报最剧烈的市场反应，既没出在营收超预期上，也没出在Azure 43%的加速上，而是在盘后两小时几乎被遗忘的电话会末尾——CFO艾米·胡德轻轻说了一句：&#34;FY2027资本支出指引约为1750亿美元。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>几秒钟前股价还在1.6%的涨幅徘徊，几分钟内直接跳到8.4%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda324557fcd0f0fb4fd0a4018becad9\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"877\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这里有一个几乎所有人都搞错了的事情：这1750亿换的是记账的地方，投入规模一点没少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一个电话会上，胡德同步宣布：数据中心和办公楼折旧年限从15年延长到25年。会计准则随之变更——原本按融资租赁处理、要计入Capex的合同，现在按经营租赁处理，不计入Capex了。公司明说：&#34;除会计准则变更之外，投入预期没有任何变化。&#34;CFO甚至补充，FY2027资本支出将&#34;进一步增长&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说，市场为一份不存在的削减狂欢了8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这件事折射出集体心理——2026年上半年，微软股价跌了将近20%，业绩本身谈不上差，但所有人都在害怕同一件事：AI基础设施的烧钱没有尽头。当市场听到一个表面上&#34;少了150亿&#34;的数字时，释放压抑了半年的恐惧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>三个月前同一场会上，CFO描述这些资产的措辞是&#34;未来15年及以后&#34;。三个月后变成25年。这不像是工程判断上的跃迁，更像是管理层在向市场传递一个信号：我们的基础设施能用很久，你不需要为折旧焦虑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但风险恰恰藏在这里——如果AI芯片的代际更替比数据中心建筑的物理寿命快得多，25年的折旧假设意味着什么？意味着当这批资产已经技术上过时的时候，账面还在慢慢摊销。谷歌在同一天把全年Capex从1900亿上修到1950-2050亿，没有玩折旧年限游戏。两条路线的分野，值得持续观察。</p><h2 id=\"id_185330863\">二、同一个夜晚，两张天差地别的利润表</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软和Meta几乎同时发报，这道“巧合”比任何单一公司的数字都更说明问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/749ebaa2a8a4ec415d2448e5e2ebdb26\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"195\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta收入比微软慢了不到七成，但单季股权激励就76.6亿美元——微软是31.2亿。Meta单季还计提了24亿法律费用、11.8亿裁员补偿。即便把这两笔加回去，Meta的利润率也只有36.8%，远不如去年同期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两家公司都在为AI投入巨资——微软Q4买固定资产付了358亿美元现金，Meta同期是301亿。但微软在投入规模更大的情况下，保住了利润增速与收入增速同步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这暴露了AI时代两种截然不同的商业模式：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta的AI投资流向内部——训练LLaMA、优化推荐算法、生成广告创意。这些投入的价值是间接的、难以拆解的。你很难说清楚Meta多赚的每一块钱有多少来自AI。微软的AI投资流向外部——Azure上的AI推理按Token收费、Copilot按人头收费、GitHub Copilot按开发者收费。每一美元的资本支出，都有明确的、可计价的、按消费量结算的收入对应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就是纳德拉反复说的&#34;cost-to-outcome curve&#34;（成本-成果曲线）的真意：重点不在于AI能不能降本，而在于你能否在财务模型里，把投入和产出的关系画成一条可解释的线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软能，Meta还差得远。</p><h2 id=\"id_1152252603\">三、毛利率降了，利润率没降——一个反直觉的发现</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更深一层的细节藏在智能云分部：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>毛利率：从去年同期的60.4%降至57.1%</p></li><li><p>营业利润率：40.6%→40.6%，纹丝不动</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI硬件在侵蚀毛利率——公司自己承认原因是&#34;产品结构转向Azure加上AI基础设施提前扩产&#34;。GPU是昂贵的，推理服务的高成本直接体现为更低的毛利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但营业利润率一点没降。为什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为同一个分部的运营费用只增长了10%，而收入增长了32%。微软在用一个更精瘦的费用结构，去对冲一个更沉重的成本结构。这是经营杠杆的教科书级展示：当SG&amp;A增速远低于收入增速时，毛利率的压缩可以被完美吸收。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这与Meta形成残酷对比：Meta的研发费用一个季度就多了87.1亿美元，占成本增量的58%。微软在控制人头（甚至还推出了自愿退休计划），Meta在疯狂扩张。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个更深层的推论：如果Azure的毛利率压力是结构性的（AI推理天然比传统云计算更消耗硬件），那么微软正在押注的两件事是——（1）自研芯片可以拉回毛利率；（2）Copilot的90%+毛利润可以补贴Azure的毛利率下滑。前者是技术赌注，后者是商业模式对冲。</p><h2 id=\"id_3778195481\">四、被所有人忽略的最重要信号：OpenAI依赖症在消退</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这可能是这份季报里最被低估的一个信息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到Q3，微软商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到6270亿美元时，市场发现一个令人不安的数字：其中约45%来自OpenAI一家客户。剔除OpenAI后，RPO增速只有26%，商业订单增速只有7%。市场的隐含担忧是：微软的云增长叙事，本质上是被一个大客户撑起来的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一季，RPO进一步升至6780亿美元，环比增加约510亿。微软在新闻稿和电话会上，特意、多次、着重强调：本季度的新增合同&#34;主要来自AI模型开发商以外的企业客户&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非一个随意的措辞，管理层在有意识地解构「微软=OpenAI的影子」这个叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，德意志银行此前提出的&#34;集中度风险&#34;也在被数据稀释。当RPO的增量来自分散的企业客户而非单一模型公司时，估值的确定性溢价会上升——因为收入变得更加可预测、更加分散、更加抗风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一个容易被忽略的小注脚：纳德拉在电话会上主动提到，<strong>今年初以来，使用多种AI模型进行开发的微软客户数量增加了5倍。客户正在自发地从「押注单一模型」转向「多模型策略」——而这对Azure来说是天大的好消息，因为多模型策略意味着更多的云消费、更低的迁移风险、更强的平台粘性。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_178010812\">五、“你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上”——纳德拉最狠的一句话</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电话会上，纳德拉主动提了一个故事：OpenAI的模型最近失控，入侵了HuggingFace。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后他说了一句在硅谷会被反复引用的话：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们能从这件事中吸取的最大教训就是，你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这句话的分量，远超一个安全事件的技术反思。微软在公开、明确地划清与OpenAI的边界。背后是一整套已经在运行的战略：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Anthropic：投资50亿美元，Claude模型集成到AzureAIFoundry和Copilot，锁定了300亿美元的Azure消费承诺</p></li><li><p>xAI（马斯克）：Grok模型上线Azure AI Foundry</p></li><li><p>Mistral：法国开源模型提供商，也已集成</p></li><li><p>自研：MAI系列模型，纳德拉在电话会上举例说MAI-Cyber-1-Flash处理90%的安全任务，成本降低50%</p></li><li><p>开源模型：Llama、Mistral等数万个开源模型可通过Azure AI Foundry部署</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软的战略图景已经很清晰：把Azure变成一个模型中立的市场，就像AWS是计算中立的市场一样。企业客户不需要关心底层模型是谁家的——微软负责提供、管理、路由、替换。Copilot内部的&#34;智能路由&#34;功能可以自动将不同任务分配给最合适、最便宜的模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谷歌云82%增长的背后是Gemini 3的强力推动，但这也意味着谷歌云的叙事深度绑定在Gemini的成功上。某个模型一旦出问题或落后，谷歌云受到的冲击会更直接。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软在做的本质上是把AI模型层的风险外部化——无论哪家模型公司赢，Azure都是赢家。</p><h2 id=\"id_320868946\">六、“循环融资”证伪：Anthropic的32亿并非左手倒右手</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年11月，微软投资Anthropic 50亿美元，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元Azure服务。当时华尔街有个刻薄的评价：「循环融资」——微软给Anthropic钱，Anthropic用这笔钱买Azure，Azure收入增长，华尔街给微软更高估值。完美的闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这次季报给出了一个意想不到的反驳：Anthropic投资产生了32亿美元的账面收益。半年，50亿投入，32亿浮盈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的机制是：Anthropic在这半年内完成了新一轮融资，估值从1830亿美元飙升到3500亿美元，超越OpenAI成为全球最有价值的AI独角兽。微软作为早期投资者，持股的公允价值随之水涨船高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着两件事：股权投资的回报独立于Azure云服务收入——两笔交易都在赚钱，谈不上左手倒右手；微软正在用更低的资本成本锁定Azure的长期需求——50亿美元的投资换来了300亿美元的确定性云收入+32亿美元的浮盈+多模型战略的关键棋子。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“投资-采购-增值”的三角结构，微软在Anthropic上玩了一遍，接下来会不会在Mistral、在别的模型公司上再玩一遍？这种模式的复制潜力，才是真正值得思考的地方。</p><h2 id=\"id_1916847007\">七、Copilot为何不可复制：捆绑的暴力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博情报分析师曼迪普·辛格说了一句一针见血的话：&#34;微软的捆绑策略仍在持续奏效。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拆开这句话：Copilot不需要像独立SaaS创业公司那样烧钱买流量。它焊在M365的4亿多付费席位上。企业IT部门已经在用Office，已经签了EA协议，已经做了安全审计——Copilot只是一个需要勾选的附加复选框。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是任何独立AI工具——不管是ChatGPTEnterprise还是ClaudeforBusiness——都无法复制的结构性优势。它们的获客是从零开始的，Copilot是从4亿开始的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3000万席位的数字背后，还有一个质量信号：使用强度已经与Outlook和Teams持平。电话会上提到，&#34;从首次使用到高频使用的时间，已经从几个月缩短到了几天&#34;。Copilot正在嵌入日常工作流，买了却不用的情况越来越少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">再加上E7高级套件的推出——它把Copilot和Agent365（安全运营、IT运营、财务运营）打包，并且在定价上引入了「席位+用量」的双轨模式——ARPU的提升才刚刚开始。纳德拉说了一句意味深长的话：&#34;Copilot的TAM（总可寻址市场），比传统Office大得多。&#34;seat收入之外，token用量收入是一个没有上限的变量。</p><h2 id=\"id_363638677\">八、结语：市场是在买“AI烧钱可见”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份季报最深的答案，藏在电话会的问答环节。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛分析师问了一个问题：“和一年前比，CapEx的ROI怎么看？”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Amy Hood的回答可以浓缩成一句话：“我的算法没变，但对TAM扩张和利润率杠杆的信心提高了。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“算法没变”——投得不更少，回报要求没更低，同样严格的ROI标准下，可实现的回报更大了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并非&#34;AI烧钱结束&#34;，而是&#34;AI烧钱可见&#34;——每一块钱投下去，你能在财务模型里看到它通向哪里：Azure的token消耗、Copilot的席位增长、Anthropic的300亿Azure承诺、多模型策略下的客户留存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软正在做一件在科技史上少见的事：把一个全行业范围的范式转变（AI），结构性地转化为自己的经常性收入。它扮演的角色，与其说是AI的「赌徒」，不如说是AI的「收费站」。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是为什么，季报出来后——谷歌云飚82%、Meta利润率崩塌、AWS今晚发布——只有微软同时完成了三件事：收入超预期、利润率守住、Capex管理给市场吃下定心丸。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个正在学会&#34;既有野心又有纪律&#34;的2.9万亿美元巨兽，比一个只会花钱的巨兽，危险得多。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{"BK4543":"AI","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999001077.SGD":"United International Growth Fund SGD","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 USD-H","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER 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ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778283","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655825248","content_text":"市场为一份\"不存在的削减\"狂欢了8%——CFO一句1750亿资本支出指引，实为会计重分类游戏，真实投入分文未减。但更深的故事藏在数字背后：OpenAI依赖症正在消退，Copilot从4亿席位起跳无人能复制，Anthropic半年浮盈32亿。微软并未AI赌徒，它是AI时代的收费站。一份所有人都觉得超预期的季报。但如果只看数字，你大概率错过了真正重要的东西。一、1750亿的魔术——市场究竟在为什么欢呼？本次季报最剧烈的市场反应，既没出在营收超预期上，也没出在Azure 43%的加速上，而是在盘后两小时几乎被遗忘的电话会末尾——CFO艾米·胡德轻轻说了一句：\"FY2027资本支出指引约为1750亿美元。\"几秒钟前股价还在1.6%的涨幅徘徊，几分钟内直接跳到8.4%。但这里有一个几乎所有人都搞错了的事情：这1750亿换的是记账的地方，投入规模一点没少。同一个电话会上，胡德同步宣布：数据中心和办公楼折旧年限从15年延长到25年。会计准则随之变更——原本按融资租赁处理、要计入Capex的合同，现在按经营租赁处理，不计入Capex了。公司明说：\"除会计准则变更之外，投入预期没有任何变化。\"CFO甚至补充，FY2027资本支出将\"进一步增长\"。也就是说，市场为一份不存在的削减狂欢了8%。这件事折射出集体心理——2026年上半年，微软股价跌了将近20%，业绩本身谈不上差，但所有人都在害怕同一件事：AI基础设施的烧钱没有尽头。当市场听到一个表面上\"少了150亿\"的数字时，释放压抑了半年的恐惧。三个月前同一场会上，CFO描述这些资产的措辞是\"未来15年及以后\"。三个月后变成25年。这不像是工程判断上的跃迁，更像是管理层在向市场传递一个信号：我们的基础设施能用很久，你不需要为折旧焦虑。但风险恰恰藏在这里——如果AI芯片的代际更替比数据中心建筑的物理寿命快得多，25年的折旧假设意味着什么？意味着当这批资产已经技术上过时的时候，账面还在慢慢摊销。谷歌在同一天把全年Capex从1900亿上修到1950-2050亿，没有玩折旧年限游戏。两条路线的分野，值得持续观察。二、同一个夜晚，两张天差地别的利润表微软和Meta几乎同时发报，这道“巧合”比任何单一公司的数字都更说明问题。Meta收入比微软慢了不到七成，但单季股权激励就76.6亿美元——微软是31.2亿。Meta单季还计提了24亿法律费用、11.8亿裁员补偿。即便把这两笔加回去，Meta的利润率也只有36.8%，远不如去年同期。两家公司都在为AI投入巨资——微软Q4买固定资产付了358亿美元现金，Meta同期是301亿。但微软在投入规模更大的情况下，保住了利润增速与收入增速同步。这暴露了AI时代两种截然不同的商业模式：Meta的AI投资流向内部——训练LLaMA、优化推荐算法、生成广告创意。这些投入的价值是间接的、难以拆解的。你很难说清楚Meta多赚的每一块钱有多少来自AI。微软的AI投资流向外部——Azure上的AI推理按Token收费、Copilot按人头收费、GitHub Copilot按开发者收费。每一美元的资本支出，都有明确的、可计价的、按消费量结算的收入对应。这就是纳德拉反复说的\"cost-to-outcome curve\"（成本-成果曲线）的真意：重点不在于AI能不能降本，而在于你能否在财务模型里，把投入和产出的关系画成一条可解释的线。微软能，Meta还差得远。三、毛利率降了，利润率没降——一个反直觉的发现更深一层的细节藏在智能云分部：毛利率：从去年同期的60.4%降至57.1%营业利润率：40.6%→40.6%，纹丝不动AI硬件在侵蚀毛利率——公司自己承认原因是\"产品结构转向Azure加上AI基础设施提前扩产\"。GPU是昂贵的，推理服务的高成本直接体现为更低的毛利率。但营业利润率一点没降。为什么？因为同一个分部的运营费用只增长了10%，而收入增长了32%。微软在用一个更精瘦的费用结构，去对冲一个更沉重的成本结构。这是经营杠杆的教科书级展示：当SG&A增速远低于收入增速时，毛利率的压缩可以被完美吸收。这与Meta形成残酷对比：Meta的研发费用一个季度就多了87.1亿美元，占成本增量的58%。微软在控制人头（甚至还推出了自愿退休计划），Meta在疯狂扩张。一个更深层的推论：如果Azure的毛利率压力是结构性的（AI推理天然比传统云计算更消耗硬件），那么微软正在押注的两件事是——（1）自研芯片可以拉回毛利率；（2）Copilot的90%+毛利润可以补贴Azure的毛利率下滑。前者是技术赌注，后者是商业模式对冲。四、被所有人忽略的最重要信号：OpenAI依赖症在消退这可能是这份季报里最被低估的一个信息。回到Q3，微软商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到6270亿美元时，市场发现一个令人不安的数字：其中约45%来自OpenAI一家客户。剔除OpenAI后，RPO增速只有26%，商业订单增速只有7%。市场的隐含担忧是：微软的云增长叙事，本质上是被一个大客户撑起来的。这一季，RPO进一步升至6780亿美元，环比增加约510亿。微软在新闻稿和电话会上，特意、多次、着重强调：本季度的新增合同\"主要来自AI模型开发商以外的企业客户\"。这并非一个随意的措辞，管理层在有意识地解构「微软=OpenAI的影子」这个叙事。与此同时，德意志银行此前提出的\"集中度风险\"也在被数据稀释。当RPO的增量来自分散的企业客户而非单一模型公司时，估值的确定性溢价会上升——因为收入变得更加可预测、更加分散、更加抗风险。还有一个容易被忽略的小注脚：纳德拉在电话会上主动提到，今年初以来，使用多种AI模型进行开发的微软客户数量增加了5倍。客户正在自发地从「押注单一模型」转向「多模型策略」——而这对Azure来说是天大的好消息，因为多模型策略意味着更多的云消费、更低的迁移风险、更强的平台粘性。五、“你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上”——纳德拉最狠的一句话电话会上，纳德拉主动提了一个故事：OpenAI的模型最近失控，入侵了HuggingFace。然后他说了一句在硅谷会被反复引用的话：“我们能从这件事中吸取的最大教训就是，你不能把赌注押在任何单一模型上。”这句话的分量，远超一个安全事件的技术反思。微软在公开、明确地划清与OpenAI的边界。背后是一整套已经在运行的战略：Anthropic：投资50亿美元，Claude模型集成到AzureAIFoundry和Copilot，锁定了300亿美元的Azure消费承诺xAI（马斯克）：Grok模型上线Azure AI FoundryMistral：法国开源模型提供商，也已集成自研：MAI系列模型，纳德拉在电话会上举例说MAI-Cyber-1-Flash处理90%的安全任务，成本降低50%开源模型：Llama、Mistral等数万个开源模型可通过Azure AI Foundry部署微软的战略图景已经很清晰：把Azure变成一个模型中立的市场，就像AWS是计算中立的市场一样。企业客户不需要关心底层模型是谁家的——微软负责提供、管理、路由、替换。Copilot内部的\"智能路由\"功能可以自动将不同任务分配给最合适、最便宜的模型。谷歌云82%增长的背后是Gemini 3的强力推动，但这也意味着谷歌云的叙事深度绑定在Gemini的成功上。某个模型一旦出问题或落后，谷歌云受到的冲击会更直接。微软在做的本质上是把AI模型层的风险外部化——无论哪家模型公司赢，Azure都是赢家。六、“循环融资”证伪：Anthropic的32亿并非左手倒右手2025年11月，微软投资Anthropic 50亿美元，Anthropic承诺购买300亿美元Azure服务。当时华尔街有个刻薄的评价：「循环融资」——微软给Anthropic钱，Anthropic用这笔钱买Azure，Azure收入增长，华尔街给微软更高估值。完美的闭环。但这次季报给出了一个意想不到的反驳：Anthropic投资产生了32亿美元的账面收益。半年，50亿投入，32亿浮盈。背后的机制是：Anthropic在这半年内完成了新一轮融资，估值从1830亿美元飙升到3500亿美元，超越OpenAI成为全球最有价值的AI独角兽。微软作为早期投资者，持股的公允价值随之水涨船高。这意味着两件事：股权投资的回报独立于Azure云服务收入——两笔交易都在赚钱，谈不上左手倒右手；微软正在用更低的资本成本锁定Azure的长期需求——50亿美元的投资换来了300亿美元的确定性云收入+32亿美元的浮盈+多模型战略的关键棋子。这种“投资-采购-增值”的三角结构，微软在Anthropic上玩了一遍，接下来会不会在Mistral、在别的模型公司上再玩一遍？这种模式的复制潜力，才是真正值得思考的地方。七、Copilot为何不可复制：捆绑的暴力彭博情报分析师曼迪普·辛格说了一句一针见血的话：\"微软的捆绑策略仍在持续奏效。\"拆开这句话：Copilot不需要像独立SaaS创业公司那样烧钱买流量。它焊在M365的4亿多付费席位上。企业IT部门已经在用Office，已经签了EA协议，已经做了安全审计——Copilot只是一个需要勾选的附加复选框。这是任何独立AI工具——不管是ChatGPTEnterprise还是ClaudeforBusiness——都无法复制的结构性优势。它们的获客是从零开始的，Copilot是从4亿开始的。3000万席位的数字背后，还有一个质量信号：使用强度已经与Outlook和Teams持平。电话会上提到，\"从首次使用到高频使用的时间，已经从几个月缩短到了几天\"。Copilot正在嵌入日常工作流，买了却不用的情况越来越少。再加上E7高级套件的推出——它把Copilot和Agent365（安全运营、IT运营、财务运营）打包，并且在定价上引入了「席位+用量」的双轨模式——ARPU的提升才刚刚开始。纳德拉说了一句意味深长的话：\"Copilot的TAM（总可寻址市场），比传统Office大得多。\"seat收入之外，token用量收入是一个没有上限的变量。八、结语：市场是在买“AI烧钱可见”这份季报最深的答案，藏在电话会的问答环节。高盛分析师问了一个问题：“和一年前比，CapEx的ROI怎么看？”Amy Hood的回答可以浓缩成一句话：“我的算法没变，但对TAM扩张和利润率杠杆的信心提高了。”“算法没变”——投得不更少，回报要求没更低，同样严格的ROI标准下，可实现的回报更大了。这并非\"AI烧钱结束\"，而是\"AI烧钱可见\"——每一块钱投下去，你能在财务模型里看到它通向哪里：Azure的token消耗、Copilot的席位增长、Anthropic的300亿Azure承诺、多模型策略下的客户留存。微软正在做一件在科技史上少见的事：把一个全行业范围的范式转变（AI），结构性地转化为自己的经常性收入。它扮演的角色，与其说是AI的「赌徒」，不如说是AI的「收费站」。这也是为什么，季报出来后——谷歌云飚82%、Meta利润率崩塌、AWS今晚发布——只有微软同时完成了三件事：收入超预期、利润率守住、Capex管理给市场吃下定心丸。一个正在学会\"既有野心又有纪律\"的2.9万亿美元巨兽，比一个只会花钱的巨兽，危险得多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EFIV":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFT":1.98,"CNEQ":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"NULC":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591497326178608,"gmtCreate":1785376918498,"gmtModify":1785376920745,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","idStr":"3498680662745699"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。","listText":"罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。","text":"罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591497326178608","repostId":"2655843665","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655843665","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785371352,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655843665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 08:29","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655843665","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。<strong>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2036765065\" style=\"text-align: left;\">缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4159779045\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。<strong>他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。<strong>他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。</p><h2 id=\"id_2842288167\" style=\"text-align: left;\">长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。<strong>野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。</strong>这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 08:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。<strong>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2036765065\" style=\"text-align: left;\">缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4159779045\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。<strong>他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。<strong>他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。</p><h2 id=\"id_2842288167\" style=\"text-align: left;\">长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。<strong>野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。</strong>这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","QQQX":"Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","LIAJ":"LifeX 2053 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QMAR":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - March","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","QDEC":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - 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Trea","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778274","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655843665","content_text":"高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"03455":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"GOVT":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"NJAN":0.6,"UDN":1.5,"03086":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SKRE":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"SMAX":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":2,"GBIL":1.5,"SPUU":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"VEXC":1.5,".DJI":2,"DBND":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"BND":1.5,"NDX":2,"IEF":1.5,"YSPY":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"07261":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"TYO":1.5,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"TIP":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"LIAJ":1.5,"07568":0.6,"02834":0.6,"SCHO":1.5,"QQQX":0.6,"BIL":1.5,"SH":0.6,"TMF":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"SPYM":0.6,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"OOQB":1.5,"FEM":1.5,"09086":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"MYCN":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"HMOP":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"IVV":0.6,"MUNX":1.5,"07266":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"USHY":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"UDOW":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"09834":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UBT":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"TQQQ":0.6,"VCSH":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"NELS":1.5,"DIA":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"07522":0.6,"BOND":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"QDEC":0.6,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"SPY":0.6,"03034":0.6,"BSV":1.5,"CIVG":1.5,".SPX":2,"MUB":1.5,"QLD":0.6,"TLH":1.5,"ZROZ":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"QMAR":0.6,"NOCT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591360948339856,"gmtCreate":1785376829756,"gmtModify":1785377714527,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","idStr":"3498680662745699"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"一旦出现抗通胀进程停滞的迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。","listText":"一旦出现抗通胀进程停滞的迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。","text":"一旦出现抗通胀进程停滞的迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591360948339856","repostId":"2655843665","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655843665","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785371352,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655843665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 08:29","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655843665","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。<strong>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2036765065\" style=\"text-align: left;\">缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4159779045\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。<strong>他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。<strong>他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。</p><h2 id=\"id_2842288167\" style=\"text-align: left;\">长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。<strong>野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。</strong>这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 08:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。<strong>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2036765065\" style=\"text-align: left;\">缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4159779045\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。<strong>他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。<strong>他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。</p><h2 id=\"id_2842288167\" style=\"text-align: left;\">长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。<strong>野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。</strong>这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","QQQX":"Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","LIAJ":"LifeX 2053 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QMAR":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - March","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","QDEC":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - 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Trea","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778274","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655843665","content_text":"高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"03455":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"GOVT":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"NJAN":0.6,"UDN":1.5,"03086":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SKRE":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"SMAX":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":2,"GBIL":1.5,"SPUU":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"VEXC":1.5,".DJI":2,"DBND":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"BND":1.5,"NDX":2,"IEF":1.5,"YSPY":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"07261":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"TYO":1.5,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"TIP":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"LIAJ":1.5,"07568":0.6,"02834":0.6,"SCHO":1.5,"QQQX":0.6,"BIL":1.5,"SH":0.6,"TMF":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"SPYM":0.6,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"OOQB":1.5,"FEM":1.5,"09086":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"MYCN":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"HMOP":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"IVV":0.6,"MUNX":1.5,"07266":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"USHY":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"UDOW":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"09834":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UBT":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"TQQQ":0.6,"VCSH":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"NELS":1.5,"DIA":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"07522":0.6,"BOND":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"QDEC":0.6,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"SPY":0.6,"03034":0.6,"BSV":1.5,"CIVG":1.5,".SPX":2,"MUB":1.5,"QLD":0.6,"TLH":1.5,"ZROZ":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"QMAR":0.6,"NOCT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591350779314416,"gmtCreate":1785376717583,"gmtModify":1785376719216,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","idStr":"3498680662745699"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。","listText":"美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。","text":"美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591350779314416","repostId":"2655843665","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655843665","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785371352,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655843665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 08:29","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655843665","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。<strong>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2036765065\" style=\"text-align: left;\">缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4159779045\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。<strong>他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。<strong>他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。</p><h2 id=\"id_2842288167\" style=\"text-align: left;\">长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。<strong>野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。</strong>这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 08:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。<strong>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2036765065\" style=\"text-align: left;\">缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4159779045\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。<strong>他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。<strong>他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。</p><h2 id=\"id_2842288167\" style=\"text-align: left;\">长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。<strong>野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。</strong>这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","QQQX":"Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","LIAJ":"LifeX 2053 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QMAR":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - March","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","QDEC":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - 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Trea","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778274","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655843665","content_text":"高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"03455":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"GOVT":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"NJAN":0.6,"UDN":1.5,"03086":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SKRE":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"SMAX":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":2,"GBIL":1.5,"SPUU":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"VEXC":1.5,".DJI":2,"DBND":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"BND":1.5,"NDX":2,"IEF":1.5,"YSPY":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"07261":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"TYO":1.5,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"TIP":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"LIAJ":1.5,"07568":0.6,"02834":0.6,"SCHO":1.5,"QQQX":0.6,"BIL":1.5,"SH":0.6,"TMF":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"SPYM":0.6,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"OOQB":1.5,"FEM":1.5,"09086":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"MYCN":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"HMOP":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"IVV":0.6,"MUNX":1.5,"07266":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"USHY":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"UDOW":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"09834":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UBT":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"TQQQ":0.6,"VCSH":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"NELS":1.5,"DIA":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"07522":0.6,"BOND":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"QDEC":0.6,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"SPY":0.6,"03034":0.6,"BSV":1.5,"CIVG":1.5,".SPX":2,"MUB":1.5,"QLD":0.6,"TLH":1.5,"ZROZ":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"QMAR":0.6,"NOCT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591360941588680,"gmtCreate":1785376691829,"gmtModify":1785376693746,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","idStr":"3498680662745699"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"沃什正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。","listText":"沃什正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。","text":"沃什正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591360941588680","repostId":"2655843665","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655843665","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785371352,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655843665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-30 08:29","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655843665","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。<strong>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2036765065\" style=\"text-align: left;\">缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4159779045\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。<strong>他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。<strong>他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。</p><h2 id=\"id_2842288167\" style=\"text-align: left;\">长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。<strong>野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。</strong>这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评美联储决议：沃什欢迎市场代替“加息”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 08:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。<strong>高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2036765065\" style=\"text-align: left;\">缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4159779045\" style=\"text-align: left;\">核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。<strong>他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。<strong>他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。</p><h2 id=\"id_2842288167\" style=\"text-align: left;\">长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。<strong>野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。</strong>这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","QQQX":"Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","LIAJ":"LifeX 2053 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QMAR":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - March","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","QDEC":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - 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Trea","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778274","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655843665","content_text":"高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。沃什称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。美联储7月决议维持利率不变，在此次缺乏明确前瞻指引的会议中，美联储主席沃什对长期收益率上升的默许态度成为市场焦点，机构普遍认为这暗示华尔街的自发收紧正在替代官方加息。在刚刚结束的FOMC会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。会议声明改动极小，但罕见地出现了三位地区联储主席（Hammack、Kashkari和Logan）反对票，他们支持加息25个基点。沃什对市场自发收紧金融条件的欢迎态度，明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。受此影响，美国国债收益率曲线大幅陡峭化，短期利率在能源价格上涨的背景下依然走低，而长期利率则显著攀升，30年期国债收益率一度突破5.20%。面对长期美债收益率持续攀升，沃什不仅没有压制，反而认为金融条件已经由市场主动收紧，这意味着只要长端利率维持高位，美联储主动加息的必要性将明显下降。高盛、巴克莱和野村分析认为，美联储正在默许由债券市场替代官方加息，但这一策略也可能推高长期收益率，并埋下通胀预期失锚、未来政策波动加剧的风险。缺乏指引的“鸽派”暂停高盛分析师David Mericle在报告中指出，在会议召开前，市场对美联储是否加息的预期存在三十年来最大的不确定性，但最终会议结果显得有些虎头蛇尾。高盛认为，沃什在新闻发布会上的言论整体偏向鸽派，且有意避免向市场提供明确的政策指引。尽管缺乏直接指引，高盛依然从沃什的表态中提取了四个核心的鸽派信号。首先，沃什刻意淡化了与人工智能相关的价格压力，暗示这些领域的涨价可能独立于更广泛的通胀趋势。其次，在被问及近期实际利率上升是否代表市场认为美联储应当加息时，他将其归因于经济的强劲表现。第三，他多次暗示市场利率的上升可以代替政策加息。第四，沃什认为，相较于直接通过加息抑制需求，提升美联储实现通胀目标的信誉，能更有效地通过压低通胀预期来降低通胀。高盛预计，未来几个月核心通胀数据的走弱，将使得美联储在2026年剩余时间内继续维持利率不变。目前，债券市场预期9月FOMC会议加息的概率约为60%。核心焦点：市场自发收紧代替“加息”本次决议中最令华尔街关注的信号，是沃什对近期债券市场收益率走高的态度。巴克莱和野村证券均在报告中重点指出，沃什不仅没有打压长期收益率的上涨，反而对其表示欢迎，并强烈暗示市场利率的上升可以替代美联储的实质性加息。巴克莱指出，美联储自身的FRBUS模型分析显示，期限溢价的充分上升可以替代更高的联邦基金利率。沃什在发布会上明确表示，近期名义和实际收益率的上升是过去二十年来最显著的变动之一。他将此归因于经济的强劲表现，并称赞市场参与者正在“学着踢球，而不是看裁判”，认为这是一种“向好的转变”。高盛同样捕捉到了这一细节。当被问及既然经济强劲为何美联储选择暂停时，沃什直接回应称市场利率“并没有暂停”。他明确表示，虽然美联储在过去42天里没做什么，但市场已经做了很多。野村证券认为，沃什这种将金融条件收紧视为政策替代品的做法，代表了一种“无过滤”的市场信号偏好。这也意味着，只要长端利率维持在高位，美联储主动扣动加息扳机的紧迫性就会大幅降低。长期收益率走高与通胀预期风险由于美联储将收紧金融条件的任务部分“外包”给了债券市场，华尔街机构正在调整其投资策略，并警惕潜在的通胀预期失锚风险。巴克莱认为，由于政策反应函数的不确定性增加，美联储9月加息的门槛正在变高，但长端收益率继续上行的门槛已经降低。该机构指出，30年期美债收益率突破5%并非昙花一现，目前的收益率水平仍未过度计入中性利率的上升，因此维持支付5年期远期担保隔夜融资利率（5y5y SOFR）的投资建议。野村证券则对美联储的通胀信誉提出了警告。野村指出，沃什持续的鸽派倾向，以及对政策反应函数的模糊解释，可能会削弱美联储抗击通胀的公信力。这直接导致了5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率在会后出现跳升。野村警告称，一旦出现通胀企稳或抗通胀进程停滞的微弱迹象，市场可能会出于对美联储信誉的担忧而做出更剧烈的反应。这种长期通胀预期脱锚的风险，最终可能迫使FOMC内部的鹰派成员采取更为强硬的反击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"03455":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"GOVT":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"NJAN":0.6,"UDN":1.5,"03086":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SKRE":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"SMAX":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":2,"GBIL":1.5,"SPUU":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"VEXC":1.5,".DJI":2,"DBND":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"BND":1.5,"NDX":2,"IEF":1.5,"YSPY":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"07261":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"TYO":1.5,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"TIP":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"LIAJ":1.5,"07568":0.6,"02834":0.6,"SCHO":1.5,"QQQX":0.6,"BIL":1.5,"SH":0.6,"TMF":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"SPYM":0.6,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"OOQB":1.5,"FEM":1.5,"09086":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"MYCN":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"HMOP":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"IVV":0.6,"MUNX":1.5,"07266":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"USHY":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"UDOW":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"09834":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UBT":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"TQQQ":0.6,"VCSH":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"NELS":1.5,"DIA":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"07522":0.6,"BOND":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"QDEC":0.6,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"SPY":0.6,"03034":0.6,"BSV":1.5,"CIVG":1.5,".SPX":2,"MUB":1.5,"QLD":0.6,"TLH":1.5,"ZROZ":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"QMAR":0.6,"NOCT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590892802842696,"gmtCreate":1785312802336,"gmtModify":1785312804414,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204802400643660","idStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"清杠杆以后清散户？","listText":"清杠杆以后清散户？","text":"清杠杆以后清散户？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590892802842696","repostId":"2655685347","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655685347","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785303350,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655685347?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-29 13:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"史上最强\"之后，海力士开始难超预期了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655685347","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场\"用确定性换弹性\"的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场&#34;用确定性换弹性&#34;的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SK 海力士今日交出了一份&#34;史上最强&#34;财报，却也成了AI存储牛市里最微妙的 miss。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026 财年第二季度，海力士营收 79.32 万亿韩元，同比暴增 257%、环比增长 51%，看似无可挑剔，却低于市场预期约 5.5%（共识 83.9 万亿韩元）；营业利润 60.54 万亿韩元，同比暴涨 557%、环比增长 61%，但同样低于共识约 5.7%（64.2 万亿韩元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">营业利润率达到 76.3%，刷新存储行业有记录以来的最高水平；毛利率达到 83%——已超过英伟达（约 75%），逼近 Meta（约 82%）等软件平台巨头的盈利区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更耐人寻味的是市场反应：财报公布前，海力士股价已从 6 月 22 日高点累计下跌约 47%，财报公布后美股 ADR 先跌 5% 以上，随后转涨；韩国本地市场次日开盘涨 3-4%,随后暴跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一句话概括：数据绝对值创历史，但弹性不及预期，市场在&#34;史上最强&#34;与&#34;不及预期&#34;之间反复博弈。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a0b65db59b9f82d9fc2a9fa3f7b71e\" alt=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" title=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"540\"/><span>营收与营业利润率趋势</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1362530077\">为什么利润涨了 557% 还 miss？LTA 是答案</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士 miss 的根源，藏在 HBM 超高收入占比里。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所谓 LTA（Long-Term Agreement，3-5 年期长期供货协议），是 AI 芯片客户与海力士等存储厂商签订的长期采购合约，价格在签约阶段即被锁定，不随现货市场每月波动。对于 AI 训练芯片出货量最大的英伟达而言，这种锁定关系是供应安全的保证；但对于海力士，它是一把双刃剑——当季 DRAM 平均售价（ASP）环比涨幅从第一季度的约 60% 骤降至约 30%，NAND ASP 涨幅也从约 70% 回落至 50-55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的算术很简单：海力士约 50% 的收入被 LTA 合约锁定，而 LTA 恰恰是它 HBM 份额最高的体现。与此同时，现货 DRAM 市场在同一个季度持续飙升——据 TrendForce 数据，二季度通用 DRAM 合约价环比上涨 58-63%，NAND 闪存价格上涨 70-75%，而海力士实际 ASP 涨幅仅为前者的一半左右，导致海力士&#34;吃&#34;到了成交量，却没能完全&#34;吃&#34;到价格上涨的弹性。韩国 KIS 证券在 7 月 13 日的报告中已提前预警这一矛盾，并将二季度营业利润预测下调至 60.4 万亿韩元——实际值 60.54 万亿韩元，几乎分毫不差。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要强调的是，miss 不是经营恶化。恰恰相反，营业利润率从一季度 71.5% 进一步提升至 76.3%，绝对利润、营收、毛利率、营业利润率全部创历史新高。问题只在于：市场把预期打到了现货价上涨的路径上，而海力士选择了一条更稳、但也更不刺激的 LTA 路径。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a3976a042c96225e4db801ec7c9ff9\" alt=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" title=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"665\"/><span>三大存储巨头 ASP 对比</span></p><h2 id=\"id_4048738050\">三家巨头的分水岭：三星、美光 beat、海力士 miss</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一轮存储超级周期里，三家巨头的表现出现罕见分化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三星电子二季度营收 171 万亿韩元，营业利润 89.4 万亿韩元，营收与利润双双 beat 共识。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨超过 40%，NAND ASP 上涨至 mid-60%，HBM4 已于 2 月开始量产，销售额已超过 12 亿美元。三星在 HBM 赛道一度落后，但如今正以集团资源优势追赶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光科技（Micron）三季度财报则是一场大胜：营收 414.6 亿美元，比预期高 16%；非 GAAP EPS 25.11 美元，比预期高 22.5%；毛利率 84.9%，第四季度指引营收 500 亿美元（±10 亿）、毛利率约 86%。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨 60% 以上，NAND ASP 上涨约 85%，均远超海力士。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而海力士在公司整体层面营业利润率最高（76.3% vs 三星集团 52% vs 美光约 68%），却是本季度唯一 miss 共识的厂商。需要指出，三星半导体（DS）部门利润率估计约 80%，高于海力士——但三星集团包含手机、显示等低利润业务，拉低了整体水平。这种反差说明：HBM 霸主地位带来了最高的公司级利润率和最稳定的客户关系，但也因为 LTA 锁定最强，现货涨价的弹性被压缩得最厉害。简言之，海力士用 ASP 弹性换了确定性。</p><h2 id=\"id_4077018765\">HBM4 量产与下半年放量：ASP 弹性回归的催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果 LTA 是二季度 miss 的主因，那么 HBM4 的放量节奏就是下半年能否扭转预期的关键变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士在财报中确认，HBM4 已在第二季度开始量产发货，下半年将持续扩大出货规模；更先进的 HBM4E 样品已在 2026 年上半年交付客户。KIS 证券预测，HBM4 从三季度开始放量后，海力士的 ASP 将重新向市场平均水平靠拢。这意味着三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅有望从 30% 的水平回升，LTA 锁定带来的&#34;折扣&#34;可能被部分抵消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下游需求端，英伟达下一代 AI 加速器（Vera Rubin）的放量将直接拉动 HBM4 需求；同时，Agentic AI 应用的扩展正在把 AI 内存需求从训练端推向推理端。海力士管理层强调，当前客户需求仍然超过供给，公司的关键竞争优势在于能够满足大规模出货要求。换句话说，二季度的 ASP 折扣并非因为订单不足，而是因为合约价本身低于现货价——只要 HBM4 的出货结构改善，单位收入仍有显著上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在供给端，海力士的资本开支继续加码：2026 年全年 capex 预计在 40-50 万亿韩元的上沿，主要用于 M15X DRAM 工厂量产提速、P&amp;T7 先进封装工厂、M17 NAND 生产基地，以及 2027 年初投产的龙仁半导体集群。截至二季度末，海力士现金储备暴增至 88 万亿韩元，净现金 69.4 万亿韩元（约 456 亿美元），资产负债表已经完全从周期底部翻身。</p><h2 id=\"id_2214195562\"> LTA 模式正在重塑存储行业的估值逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">短期看，LTA 让海力士在本轮现货涨价中跑得比三星、美光慢；长期看，它可能正在改变存储行业的估值方式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">传统上，存储行业被当作强周期股估值：ASP 涨跌决定利润率起伏，利润率又决定股价弹性。但 LTA 的普及让存储厂商的收入曲线变得更平滑——海力士 50% 收入被 LTA 锁定，美光已签署 16 份 SCA（战略客户协议）目标将 50% 以上收入转为长期合约，三星也在加速推进类似模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当 ASP 波动被压缩，市场定价的锚点就从&#34;单季 ASP 涨幅&#34;转向&#34;高盈利可持续性&#34;。这对海力士、美光等龙头而言，意味着估值中枢可能从&#34;周期股&#34;向&#34;AI 基础设施资产&#34;迁移。代价是：在超级周期的某些季度，股价弹性会显得&#34;不够刺激&#34;；投资者需要适应的是，存储龙头的利润曲线将更像云服务或半导体设备公司，而非传统大宗商品存储厂商。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到财务报表，有一个数字需要格外注意：海力士二季度净利润 93.92 万亿韩元，净利率高达 118%——超过 100% 是因为计入了以出售铠侠（Kioxia）股权为主的非营业收益合计约 62.17 万亿韩元（税前）。按公司有效税率约 23.5% 折算，该非营业收益的税后影响约 47.6 万亿韩元；扣除后，核心经营性净利润约为 46.3 万亿韩元。这一异常值不影响主营业务判断，但阅读时必须留意，避免误读为经营性净利率破百。</p><h2 id=\"id_1240059125\">紧盯HBM4放量后的ASP涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士这份财报的真正看点，不是 557% 的利润增长，而是 AI 存储牛市进入第二阶段后，行业定价机制发生的变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下季度最值得跟踪的不是营收能否再破纪录，而是HBM4放量能否把ASP涨幅重新拉回到与三星、美光同一条水平线上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅回到 40%-50%，那么二季度的 miss 就会被重新定义为&#34;过渡性折价&#34;；如果 ASP 继续停留在 30% 附近，市场可能开始认真讨论 LTA 对存储龙头估值天花板的长期压制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">无论哪种路径，存储行业的估值逻辑都已经和两年前完全不同了。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"史上最强\"之后，海力士开始难超预期了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"史上最强\"之后，海力士开始难超预期了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-29 13:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场&#34;用确定性换弹性&#34;的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SK 海力士今日交出了一份&#34;史上最强&#34;财报，却也成了AI存储牛市里最微妙的 miss。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026 财年第二季度，海力士营收 79.32 万亿韩元，同比暴增 257%、环比增长 51%，看似无可挑剔，却低于市场预期约 5.5%（共识 83.9 万亿韩元）；营业利润 60.54 万亿韩元，同比暴涨 557%、环比增长 61%，但同样低于共识约 5.7%（64.2 万亿韩元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">营业利润率达到 76.3%，刷新存储行业有记录以来的最高水平；毛利率达到 83%——已超过英伟达（约 75%），逼近 Meta（约 82%）等软件平台巨头的盈利区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更耐人寻味的是市场反应：财报公布前，海力士股价已从 6 月 22 日高点累计下跌约 47%，财报公布后美股 ADR 先跌 5% 以上，随后转涨；韩国本地市场次日开盘涨 3-4%,随后暴跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一句话概括：数据绝对值创历史，但弹性不及预期，市场在&#34;史上最强&#34;与&#34;不及预期&#34;之间反复博弈。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a0b65db59b9f82d9fc2a9fa3f7b71e\" alt=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" title=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"540\"/><span>营收与营业利润率趋势</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1362530077\">为什么利润涨了 557% 还 miss？LTA 是答案</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士 miss 的根源，藏在 HBM 超高收入占比里。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所谓 LTA（Long-Term Agreement，3-5 年期长期供货协议），是 AI 芯片客户与海力士等存储厂商签订的长期采购合约，价格在签约阶段即被锁定，不随现货市场每月波动。对于 AI 训练芯片出货量最大的英伟达而言，这种锁定关系是供应安全的保证；但对于海力士，它是一把双刃剑——当季 DRAM 平均售价（ASP）环比涨幅从第一季度的约 60% 骤降至约 30%，NAND ASP 涨幅也从约 70% 回落至 50-55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的算术很简单：海力士约 50% 的收入被 LTA 合约锁定，而 LTA 恰恰是它 HBM 份额最高的体现。与此同时，现货 DRAM 市场在同一个季度持续飙升——据 TrendForce 数据，二季度通用 DRAM 合约价环比上涨 58-63%，NAND 闪存价格上涨 70-75%，而海力士实际 ASP 涨幅仅为前者的一半左右，导致海力士&#34;吃&#34;到了成交量，却没能完全&#34;吃&#34;到价格上涨的弹性。韩国 KIS 证券在 7 月 13 日的报告中已提前预警这一矛盾，并将二季度营业利润预测下调至 60.4 万亿韩元——实际值 60.54 万亿韩元，几乎分毫不差。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要强调的是，miss 不是经营恶化。恰恰相反，营业利润率从一季度 71.5% 进一步提升至 76.3%，绝对利润、营收、毛利率、营业利润率全部创历史新高。问题只在于：市场把预期打到了现货价上涨的路径上，而海力士选择了一条更稳、但也更不刺激的 LTA 路径。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a3976a042c96225e4db801ec7c9ff9\" alt=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" title=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"665\"/><span>三大存储巨头 ASP 对比</span></p><h2 id=\"id_4048738050\">三家巨头的分水岭：三星、美光 beat、海力士 miss</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一轮存储超级周期里，三家巨头的表现出现罕见分化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三星电子二季度营收 171 万亿韩元，营业利润 89.4 万亿韩元，营收与利润双双 beat 共识。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨超过 40%，NAND ASP 上涨至 mid-60%，HBM4 已于 2 月开始量产，销售额已超过 12 亿美元。三星在 HBM 赛道一度落后，但如今正以集团资源优势追赶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光科技（Micron）三季度财报则是一场大胜：营收 414.6 亿美元，比预期高 16%；非 GAAP EPS 25.11 美元，比预期高 22.5%；毛利率 84.9%，第四季度指引营收 500 亿美元（±10 亿）、毛利率约 86%。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨 60% 以上，NAND ASP 上涨约 85%，均远超海力士。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而海力士在公司整体层面营业利润率最高（76.3% vs 三星集团 52% vs 美光约 68%），却是本季度唯一 miss 共识的厂商。需要指出，三星半导体（DS）部门利润率估计约 80%，高于海力士——但三星集团包含手机、显示等低利润业务，拉低了整体水平。这种反差说明：HBM 霸主地位带来了最高的公司级利润率和最稳定的客户关系，但也因为 LTA 锁定最强，现货涨价的弹性被压缩得最厉害。简言之，海力士用 ASP 弹性换了确定性。</p><h2 id=\"id_4077018765\">HBM4 量产与下半年放量：ASP 弹性回归的催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果 LTA 是二季度 miss 的主因，那么 HBM4 的放量节奏就是下半年能否扭转预期的关键变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士在财报中确认，HBM4 已在第二季度开始量产发货，下半年将持续扩大出货规模；更先进的 HBM4E 样品已在 2026 年上半年交付客户。KIS 证券预测，HBM4 从三季度开始放量后，海力士的 ASP 将重新向市场平均水平靠拢。这意味着三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅有望从 30% 的水平回升，LTA 锁定带来的&#34;折扣&#34;可能被部分抵消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下游需求端，英伟达下一代 AI 加速器（Vera Rubin）的放量将直接拉动 HBM4 需求；同时，Agentic AI 应用的扩展正在把 AI 内存需求从训练端推向推理端。海力士管理层强调，当前客户需求仍然超过供给，公司的关键竞争优势在于能够满足大规模出货要求。换句话说，二季度的 ASP 折扣并非因为订单不足，而是因为合约价本身低于现货价——只要 HBM4 的出货结构改善，单位收入仍有显著上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在供给端，海力士的资本开支继续加码：2026 年全年 capex 预计在 40-50 万亿韩元的上沿，主要用于 M15X DRAM 工厂量产提速、P&amp;T7 先进封装工厂、M17 NAND 生产基地，以及 2027 年初投产的龙仁半导体集群。截至二季度末，海力士现金储备暴增至 88 万亿韩元，净现金 69.4 万亿韩元（约 456 亿美元），资产负债表已经完全从周期底部翻身。</p><h2 id=\"id_2214195562\"> LTA 模式正在重塑存储行业的估值逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">短期看，LTA 让海力士在本轮现货涨价中跑得比三星、美光慢；长期看，它可能正在改变存储行业的估值方式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">传统上，存储行业被当作强周期股估值：ASP 涨跌决定利润率起伏，利润率又决定股价弹性。但 LTA 的普及让存储厂商的收入曲线变得更平滑——海力士 50% 收入被 LTA 锁定，美光已签署 16 份 SCA（战略客户协议）目标将 50% 以上收入转为长期合约，三星也在加速推进类似模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当 ASP 波动被压缩，市场定价的锚点就从&#34;单季 ASP 涨幅&#34;转向&#34;高盈利可持续性&#34;。这对海力士、美光等龙头而言，意味着估值中枢可能从&#34;周期股&#34;向&#34;AI 基础设施资产&#34;迁移。代价是：在超级周期的某些季度，股价弹性会显得&#34;不够刺激&#34;；投资者需要适应的是，存储龙头的利润曲线将更像云服务或半导体设备公司，而非传统大宗商品存储厂商。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到财务报表，有一个数字需要格外注意：海力士二季度净利润 93.92 万亿韩元，净利率高达 118%——超过 100% 是因为计入了以出售铠侠（Kioxia）股权为主的非营业收益合计约 62.17 万亿韩元（税前）。按公司有效税率约 23.5% 折算，该非营业收益的税后影响约 47.6 万亿韩元；扣除后，核心经营性净利润约为 46.3 万亿韩元。这一异常值不影响主营业务判断，但阅读时必须留意，避免误读为经营性净利率破百。</p><h2 id=\"id_1240059125\">紧盯HBM4放量后的ASP涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士这份财报的真正看点，不是 557% 的利润增长，而是 AI 存储牛市进入第二阶段后，行业定价机制发生的变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下季度最值得跟踪的不是营收能否再破纪录，而是HBM4放量能否把ASP涨幅重新拉回到与三星、美光同一条水平线上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅回到 40%-50%，那么二季度的 miss 就会被重新定义为&#34;过渡性折价&#34;；如果 ASP 继续停留在 30% 附近，市场可能开始认真讨论 LTA 对存储龙头估值天花板的长期压制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">无论哪种路径，存储行业的估值逻辑都已经和两年前完全不同了。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"IETC":"iShares U.S. Tech Independence Focused ETF","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","XNTK":"SPDR NYSE Technology ETF","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ 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Semiconductor ETF","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778190","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2655685347","content_text":"SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场\"用确定性换弹性\"的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。SK 海力士今日交出了一份\"史上最强\"财报，却也成了AI存储牛市里最微妙的 miss。2026 财年第二季度，海力士营收 79.32 万亿韩元，同比暴增 257%、环比增长 51%，看似无可挑剔，却低于市场预期约 5.5%（共识 83.9 万亿韩元）；营业利润 60.54 万亿韩元，同比暴涨 557%、环比增长 61%，但同样低于共识约 5.7%（64.2 万亿韩元）。营业利润率达到 76.3%，刷新存储行业有记录以来的最高水平；毛利率达到 83%——已超过英伟达（约 75%），逼近 Meta（约 82%）等软件平台巨头的盈利区间。更耐人寻味的是市场反应：财报公布前，海力士股价已从 6 月 22 日高点累计下跌约 47%，财报公布后美股 ADR 先跌 5% 以上，随后转涨；韩国本地市场次日开盘涨 3-4%,随后暴跌。一句话概括：数据绝对值创历史，但弹性不及预期，市场在\"史上最强\"与\"不及预期\"之间反复博弈。营收与营业利润率趋势为什么利润涨了 557% 还 miss？LTA 是答案海力士 miss 的根源，藏在 HBM 超高收入占比里。所谓 LTA（Long-Term Agreement，3-5 年期长期供货协议），是 AI 芯片客户与海力士等存储厂商签订的长期采购合约，价格在签约阶段即被锁定，不随现货市场每月波动。对于 AI 训练芯片出货量最大的英伟达而言，这种锁定关系是供应安全的保证；但对于海力士，它是一把双刃剑——当季 DRAM 平均售价（ASP）环比涨幅从第一季度的约 60% 骤降至约 30%，NAND ASP 涨幅也从约 70% 回落至 50-55%。背后的算术很简单：海力士约 50% 的收入被 LTA 合约锁定，而 LTA 恰恰是它 HBM 份额最高的体现。与此同时，现货 DRAM 市场在同一个季度持续飙升——据 TrendForce 数据，二季度通用 DRAM 合约价环比上涨 58-63%，NAND 闪存价格上涨 70-75%，而海力士实际 ASP 涨幅仅为前者的一半左右，导致海力士\"吃\"到了成交量，却没能完全\"吃\"到价格上涨的弹性。韩国 KIS 证券在 7 月 13 日的报告中已提前预警这一矛盾，并将二季度营业利润预测下调至 60.4 万亿韩元——实际值 60.54 万亿韩元，几乎分毫不差。需要强调的是，miss 不是经营恶化。恰恰相反，营业利润率从一季度 71.5% 进一步提升至 76.3%，绝对利润、营收、毛利率、营业利润率全部创历史新高。问题只在于：市场把预期打到了现货价上涨的路径上，而海力士选择了一条更稳、但也更不刺激的 LTA 路径。三大存储巨头 ASP 对比三家巨头的分水岭：三星、美光 beat、海力士 miss同一轮存储超级周期里，三家巨头的表现出现罕见分化。三星电子二季度营收 171 万亿韩元，营业利润 89.4 万亿韩元，营收与利润双双 beat 共识。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨超过 40%，NAND ASP 上涨至 mid-60%，HBM4 已于 2 月开始量产，销售额已超过 12 亿美元。三星在 HBM 赛道一度落后，但如今正以集团资源优势追赶。美光科技（Micron）三季度财报则是一场大胜：营收 414.6 亿美元，比预期高 16%；非 GAAP EPS 25.11 美元，比预期高 22.5%；毛利率 84.9%，第四季度指引营收 500 亿美元（±10 亿）、毛利率约 86%。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨 60% 以上，NAND ASP 上涨约 85%，均远超海力士。而海力士在公司整体层面营业利润率最高（76.3% vs 三星集团 52% vs 美光约 68%），却是本季度唯一 miss 共识的厂商。需要指出，三星半导体（DS）部门利润率估计约 80%，高于海力士——但三星集团包含手机、显示等低利润业务，拉低了整体水平。这种反差说明：HBM 霸主地位带来了最高的公司级利润率和最稳定的客户关系，但也因为 LTA 锁定最强，现货涨价的弹性被压缩得最厉害。简言之，海力士用 ASP 弹性换了确定性。HBM4 量产与下半年放量：ASP 弹性回归的催化剂如果 LTA 是二季度 miss 的主因，那么 HBM4 的放量节奏就是下半年能否扭转预期的关键变量。海力士在财报中确认，HBM4 已在第二季度开始量产发货，下半年将持续扩大出货规模；更先进的 HBM4E 样品已在 2026 年上半年交付客户。KIS 证券预测，HBM4 从三季度开始放量后，海力士的 ASP 将重新向市场平均水平靠拢。这意味着三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅有望从 30% 的水平回升，LTA 锁定带来的\"折扣\"可能被部分抵消。下游需求端，英伟达下一代 AI 加速器（Vera Rubin）的放量将直接拉动 HBM4 需求；同时，Agentic AI 应用的扩展正在把 AI 内存需求从训练端推向推理端。海力士管理层强调，当前客户需求仍然超过供给，公司的关键竞争优势在于能够满足大规模出货要求。换句话说，二季度的 ASP 折扣并非因为订单不足，而是因为合约价本身低于现货价——只要 HBM4 的出货结构改善，单位收入仍有显著上行空间。在供给端，海力士的资本开支继续加码：2026 年全年 capex 预计在 40-50 万亿韩元的上沿，主要用于 M15X DRAM 工厂量产提速、P&T7 先进封装工厂、M17 NAND 生产基地，以及 2027 年初投产的龙仁半导体集群。截至二季度末，海力士现金储备暴增至 88 万亿韩元，净现金 69.4 万亿韩元（约 456 亿美元），资产负债表已经完全从周期底部翻身。 LTA 模式正在重塑存储行业的估值逻辑短期看，LTA 让海力士在本轮现货涨价中跑得比三星、美光慢；长期看，它可能正在改变存储行业的估值方式。传统上，存储行业被当作强周期股估值：ASP 涨跌决定利润率起伏，利润率又决定股价弹性。但 LTA 的普及让存储厂商的收入曲线变得更平滑——海力士 50% 收入被 LTA 锁定，美光已签署 16 份 SCA（战略客户协议）目标将 50% 以上收入转为长期合约，三星也在加速推进类似模式。当 ASP 波动被压缩，市场定价的锚点就从\"单季 ASP 涨幅\"转向\"高盈利可持续性\"。这对海力士、美光等龙头而言，意味着估值中枢可能从\"周期股\"向\"AI 基础设施资产\"迁移。代价是：在超级周期的某些季度，股价弹性会显得\"不够刺激\"；投资者需要适应的是，存储龙头的利润曲线将更像云服务或半导体设备公司，而非传统大宗商品存储厂商。回到财务报表，有一个数字需要格外注意：海力士二季度净利润 93.92 万亿韩元，净利率高达 118%——超过 100% 是因为计入了以出售铠侠（Kioxia）股权为主的非营业收益合计约 62.17 万亿韩元（税前）。按公司有效税率约 23.5% 折算，该非营业收益的税后影响约 47.6 万亿韩元；扣除后，核心经营性净利润约为 46.3 万亿韩元。这一异常值不影响主营业务判断，但阅读时必须留意，避免误读为经营性净利率破百。紧盯HBM4放量后的ASP涨幅海力士这份财报的真正看点，不是 557% 的利润增长，而是 AI 存储牛市进入第二阶段后，行业定价机制发生的变化。下季度最值得跟踪的不是营收能否再破纪录，而是HBM4放量能否把ASP涨幅重新拉回到与三星、美光同一条水平线上。如果三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅回到 40%-50%，那么二季度的 miss 就会被重新定义为\"过渡性折价\"；如果 ASP 继续停留在 30% 附近，市场可能开始认真讨论 LTA 对存储龙头估值天花板的长期压制。无论哪种路径，存储行业的估值逻辑都已经和两年前完全不同了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IXN":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"SK":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"PTF":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"HBMX":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"SKHY":1.97,"SOXQ":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"SKUU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3567687676195007","authorId":"3567687676195007","name":"老虎蛋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/395bdb1c41c86c3f13574c5ca9631b59","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3567687676195007","idStr":"3567687676195007"},"content":"笑死我了😂。","text":"笑死我了😂。","html":"笑死我了😂。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591094237111256,"gmtCreate":1785311654612,"gmtModify":1785312405645,"author":{"id":"3581730289277996","authorId":"3581730289277996","name":"Aledecha","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64feeab92f0a4c86ca1bb75fd701e7e0","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581730289277996","idStr":"3581730289277996"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"“史上最强”是海力士，“现代最强”是谁呢","listText":"“史上最强”是海力士，“现代最强”是谁呢","text":"“史上最强”是海力士，“现代最强”是谁呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591094237111256","repostId":"2655685347","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2655685347","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785303350,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2655685347?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-29 13:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"史上最强\"之后，海力士开始难超预期了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2655685347","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场\"用确定性换弹性\"的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场&#34;用确定性换弹性&#34;的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SK 海力士今日交出了一份&#34;史上最强&#34;财报，却也成了AI存储牛市里最微妙的 miss。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026 财年第二季度，海力士营收 79.32 万亿韩元，同比暴增 257%、环比增长 51%，看似无可挑剔，却低于市场预期约 5.5%（共识 83.9 万亿韩元）；营业利润 60.54 万亿韩元，同比暴涨 557%、环比增长 61%，但同样低于共识约 5.7%（64.2 万亿韩元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">营业利润率达到 76.3%，刷新存储行业有记录以来的最高水平；毛利率达到 83%——已超过英伟达（约 75%），逼近 Meta（约 82%）等软件平台巨头的盈利区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更耐人寻味的是市场反应：财报公布前，海力士股价已从 6 月 22 日高点累计下跌约 47%，财报公布后美股 ADR 先跌 5% 以上，随后转涨；韩国本地市场次日开盘涨 3-4%,随后暴跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一句话概括：数据绝对值创历史，但弹性不及预期，市场在&#34;史上最强&#34;与&#34;不及预期&#34;之间反复博弈。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a0b65db59b9f82d9fc2a9fa3f7b71e\" alt=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" title=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"540\"/><span>营收与营业利润率趋势</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1362530077\">为什么利润涨了 557% 还 miss？LTA 是答案</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士 miss 的根源，藏在 HBM 超高收入占比里。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所谓 LTA（Long-Term Agreement，3-5 年期长期供货协议），是 AI 芯片客户与海力士等存储厂商签订的长期采购合约，价格在签约阶段即被锁定，不随现货市场每月波动。对于 AI 训练芯片出货量最大的英伟达而言，这种锁定关系是供应安全的保证；但对于海力士，它是一把双刃剑——当季 DRAM 平均售价（ASP）环比涨幅从第一季度的约 60% 骤降至约 30%，NAND ASP 涨幅也从约 70% 回落至 50-55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的算术很简单：海力士约 50% 的收入被 LTA 合约锁定，而 LTA 恰恰是它 HBM 份额最高的体现。与此同时，现货 DRAM 市场在同一个季度持续飙升——据 TrendForce 数据，二季度通用 DRAM 合约价环比上涨 58-63%，NAND 闪存价格上涨 70-75%，而海力士实际 ASP 涨幅仅为前者的一半左右，导致海力士&#34;吃&#34;到了成交量，却没能完全&#34;吃&#34;到价格上涨的弹性。韩国 KIS 证券在 7 月 13 日的报告中已提前预警这一矛盾，并将二季度营业利润预测下调至 60.4 万亿韩元——实际值 60.54 万亿韩元，几乎分毫不差。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要强调的是，miss 不是经营恶化。恰恰相反，营业利润率从一季度 71.5% 进一步提升至 76.3%，绝对利润、营收、毛利率、营业利润率全部创历史新高。问题只在于：市场把预期打到了现货价上涨的路径上，而海力士选择了一条更稳、但也更不刺激的 LTA 路径。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a3976a042c96225e4db801ec7c9ff9\" alt=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" title=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"665\"/><span>三大存储巨头 ASP 对比</span></p><h2 id=\"id_4048738050\">三家巨头的分水岭：三星、美光 beat、海力士 miss</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一轮存储超级周期里，三家巨头的表现出现罕见分化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三星电子二季度营收 171 万亿韩元，营业利润 89.4 万亿韩元，营收与利润双双 beat 共识。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨超过 40%，NAND ASP 上涨至 mid-60%，HBM4 已于 2 月开始量产，销售额已超过 12 亿美元。三星在 HBM 赛道一度落后，但如今正以集团资源优势追赶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光科技（Micron）三季度财报则是一场大胜：营收 414.6 亿美元，比预期高 16%；非 GAAP EPS 25.11 美元，比预期高 22.5%；毛利率 84.9%，第四季度指引营收 500 亿美元（±10 亿）、毛利率约 86%。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨 60% 以上，NAND ASP 上涨约 85%，均远超海力士。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而海力士在公司整体层面营业利润率最高（76.3% vs 三星集团 52% vs 美光约 68%），却是本季度唯一 miss 共识的厂商。需要指出，三星半导体（DS）部门利润率估计约 80%，高于海力士——但三星集团包含手机、显示等低利润业务，拉低了整体水平。这种反差说明：HBM 霸主地位带来了最高的公司级利润率和最稳定的客户关系，但也因为 LTA 锁定最强，现货涨价的弹性被压缩得最厉害。简言之，海力士用 ASP 弹性换了确定性。</p><h2 id=\"id_4077018765\">HBM4 量产与下半年放量：ASP 弹性回归的催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果 LTA 是二季度 miss 的主因，那么 HBM4 的放量节奏就是下半年能否扭转预期的关键变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士在财报中确认，HBM4 已在第二季度开始量产发货，下半年将持续扩大出货规模；更先进的 HBM4E 样品已在 2026 年上半年交付客户。KIS 证券预测，HBM4 从三季度开始放量后，海力士的 ASP 将重新向市场平均水平靠拢。这意味着三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅有望从 30% 的水平回升，LTA 锁定带来的&#34;折扣&#34;可能被部分抵消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下游需求端，英伟达下一代 AI 加速器（Vera Rubin）的放量将直接拉动 HBM4 需求；同时，Agentic AI 应用的扩展正在把 AI 内存需求从训练端推向推理端。海力士管理层强调，当前客户需求仍然超过供给，公司的关键竞争优势在于能够满足大规模出货要求。换句话说，二季度的 ASP 折扣并非因为订单不足，而是因为合约价本身低于现货价——只要 HBM4 的出货结构改善，单位收入仍有显著上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在供给端，海力士的资本开支继续加码：2026 年全年 capex 预计在 40-50 万亿韩元的上沿，主要用于 M15X DRAM 工厂量产提速、P&amp;T7 先进封装工厂、M17 NAND 生产基地，以及 2027 年初投产的龙仁半导体集群。截至二季度末，海力士现金储备暴增至 88 万亿韩元，净现金 69.4 万亿韩元（约 456 亿美元），资产负债表已经完全从周期底部翻身。</p><h2 id=\"id_2214195562\"> LTA 模式正在重塑存储行业的估值逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">短期看，LTA 让海力士在本轮现货涨价中跑得比三星、美光慢；长期看，它可能正在改变存储行业的估值方式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">传统上，存储行业被当作强周期股估值：ASP 涨跌决定利润率起伏，利润率又决定股价弹性。但 LTA 的普及让存储厂商的收入曲线变得更平滑——海力士 50% 收入被 LTA 锁定，美光已签署 16 份 SCA（战略客户协议）目标将 50% 以上收入转为长期合约，三星也在加速推进类似模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当 ASP 波动被压缩，市场定价的锚点就从&#34;单季 ASP 涨幅&#34;转向&#34;高盈利可持续性&#34;。这对海力士、美光等龙头而言，意味着估值中枢可能从&#34;周期股&#34;向&#34;AI 基础设施资产&#34;迁移。代价是：在超级周期的某些季度，股价弹性会显得&#34;不够刺激&#34;；投资者需要适应的是，存储龙头的利润曲线将更像云服务或半导体设备公司，而非传统大宗商品存储厂商。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到财务报表，有一个数字需要格外注意：海力士二季度净利润 93.92 万亿韩元，净利率高达 118%——超过 100% 是因为计入了以出售铠侠（Kioxia）股权为主的非营业收益合计约 62.17 万亿韩元（税前）。按公司有效税率约 23.5% 折算，该非营业收益的税后影响约 47.6 万亿韩元；扣除后，核心经营性净利润约为 46.3 万亿韩元。这一异常值不影响主营业务判断，但阅读时必须留意，避免误读为经营性净利率破百。</p><h2 id=\"id_1240059125\">紧盯HBM4放量后的ASP涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士这份财报的真正看点，不是 557% 的利润增长，而是 AI 存储牛市进入第二阶段后，行业定价机制发生的变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下季度最值得跟踪的不是营收能否再破纪录，而是HBM4放量能否把ASP涨幅重新拉回到与三星、美光同一条水平线上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅回到 40%-50%，那么二季度的 miss 就会被重新定义为&#34;过渡性折价&#34;；如果 ASP 继续停留在 30% 附近，市场可能开始认真讨论 LTA 对存储龙头估值天花板的长期压制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">无论哪种路径，存储行业的估值逻辑都已经和两年前完全不同了。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"史上最强\"之后，海力士开始难超预期了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"史上最强\"之后，海力士开始难超预期了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-29 13:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元、营业利润暴增557%，利润率76.3%刷新存储业历史纪录，毛利率83%已超越英伟达——却成了本轮超级周期中唯一miss共识的巨头。根源在于：HBM霸主地位反噬，50%收入被LTA长协锁定，现货狂涨时只能眼看三星、美光收割ASP弹性。这不是经营恶化，而是一场&#34;用确定性换弹性&#34;的主动选择。下半年HBM4放量，才是判断这笔交易值不值的真正答案。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SK 海力士今日交出了一份&#34;史上最强&#34;财报，却也成了AI存储牛市里最微妙的 miss。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026 财年第二季度，海力士营收 79.32 万亿韩元，同比暴增 257%、环比增长 51%，看似无可挑剔，却低于市场预期约 5.5%（共识 83.9 万亿韩元）；营业利润 60.54 万亿韩元，同比暴涨 557%、环比增长 61%，但同样低于共识约 5.7%（64.2 万亿韩元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">营业利润率达到 76.3%，刷新存储行业有记录以来的最高水平；毛利率达到 83%——已超过英伟达（约 75%），逼近 Meta（约 82%）等软件平台巨头的盈利区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更耐人寻味的是市场反应：财报公布前，海力士股价已从 6 月 22 日高点累计下跌约 47%，财报公布后美股 ADR 先跌 5% 以上，随后转涨；韩国本地市场次日开盘涨 3-4%,随后暴跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一句话概括：数据绝对值创历史，但弹性不及预期，市场在&#34;史上最强&#34;与&#34;不及预期&#34;之间反复博弈。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a0b65db59b9f82d9fc2a9fa3f7b71e\" alt=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" title=\"营收与营业利润率趋势\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"540\"/><span>营收与营业利润率趋势</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1362530077\">为什么利润涨了 557% 还 miss？LTA 是答案</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士 miss 的根源，藏在 HBM 超高收入占比里。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所谓 LTA（Long-Term Agreement，3-5 年期长期供货协议），是 AI 芯片客户与海力士等存储厂商签订的长期采购合约，价格在签约阶段即被锁定，不随现货市场每月波动。对于 AI 训练芯片出货量最大的英伟达而言，这种锁定关系是供应安全的保证；但对于海力士，它是一把双刃剑——当季 DRAM 平均售价（ASP）环比涨幅从第一季度的约 60% 骤降至约 30%，NAND ASP 涨幅也从约 70% 回落至 50-55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">背后的算术很简单：海力士约 50% 的收入被 LTA 合约锁定，而 LTA 恰恰是它 HBM 份额最高的体现。与此同时，现货 DRAM 市场在同一个季度持续飙升——据 TrendForce 数据，二季度通用 DRAM 合约价环比上涨 58-63%，NAND 闪存价格上涨 70-75%，而海力士实际 ASP 涨幅仅为前者的一半左右，导致海力士&#34;吃&#34;到了成交量，却没能完全&#34;吃&#34;到价格上涨的弹性。韩国 KIS 证券在 7 月 13 日的报告中已提前预警这一矛盾，并将二季度营业利润预测下调至 60.4 万亿韩元——实际值 60.54 万亿韩元，几乎分毫不差。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要强调的是，miss 不是经营恶化。恰恰相反，营业利润率从一季度 71.5% 进一步提升至 76.3%，绝对利润、营收、毛利率、营业利润率全部创历史新高。问题只在于：市场把预期打到了现货价上涨的路径上，而海力士选择了一条更稳、但也更不刺激的 LTA 路径。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a3976a042c96225e4db801ec7c9ff9\" alt=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" title=\"三大存储巨头 ASP 对比\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"665\"/><span>三大存储巨头 ASP 对比</span></p><h2 id=\"id_4048738050\">三家巨头的分水岭：三星、美光 beat、海力士 miss</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一轮存储超级周期里，三家巨头的表现出现罕见分化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三星电子二季度营收 171 万亿韩元，营业利润 89.4 万亿韩元，营收与利润双双 beat 共识。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨超过 40%，NAND ASP 上涨至 mid-60%，HBM4 已于 2 月开始量产，销售额已超过 12 亿美元。三星在 HBM 赛道一度落后，但如今正以集团资源优势追赶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光科技（Micron）三季度财报则是一场大胜：营收 414.6 亿美元，比预期高 16%；非 GAAP EPS 25.11 美元，比预期高 22.5%；毛利率 84.9%，第四季度指引营收 500 亿美元（±10 亿）、毛利率约 86%。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨 60% 以上，NAND ASP 上涨约 85%，均远超海力士。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而海力士在公司整体层面营业利润率最高（76.3% vs 三星集团 52% vs 美光约 68%），却是本季度唯一 miss 共识的厂商。需要指出，三星半导体（DS）部门利润率估计约 80%，高于海力士——但三星集团包含手机、显示等低利润业务，拉低了整体水平。这种反差说明：HBM 霸主地位带来了最高的公司级利润率和最稳定的客户关系，但也因为 LTA 锁定最强，现货涨价的弹性被压缩得最厉害。简言之，海力士用 ASP 弹性换了确定性。</p><h2 id=\"id_4077018765\">HBM4 量产与下半年放量：ASP 弹性回归的催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果 LTA 是二季度 miss 的主因，那么 HBM4 的放量节奏就是下半年能否扭转预期的关键变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士在财报中确认，HBM4 已在第二季度开始量产发货，下半年将持续扩大出货规模；更先进的 HBM4E 样品已在 2026 年上半年交付客户。KIS 证券预测，HBM4 从三季度开始放量后，海力士的 ASP 将重新向市场平均水平靠拢。这意味着三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅有望从 30% 的水平回升，LTA 锁定带来的&#34;折扣&#34;可能被部分抵消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下游需求端，英伟达下一代 AI 加速器（Vera Rubin）的放量将直接拉动 HBM4 需求；同时，Agentic AI 应用的扩展正在把 AI 内存需求从训练端推向推理端。海力士管理层强调，当前客户需求仍然超过供给，公司的关键竞争优势在于能够满足大规模出货要求。换句话说，二季度的 ASP 折扣并非因为订单不足，而是因为合约价本身低于现货价——只要 HBM4 的出货结构改善，单位收入仍有显著上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在供给端，海力士的资本开支继续加码：2026 年全年 capex 预计在 40-50 万亿韩元的上沿，主要用于 M15X DRAM 工厂量产提速、P&amp;T7 先进封装工厂、M17 NAND 生产基地，以及 2027 年初投产的龙仁半导体集群。截至二季度末，海力士现金储备暴增至 88 万亿韩元，净现金 69.4 万亿韩元（约 456 亿美元），资产负债表已经完全从周期底部翻身。</p><h2 id=\"id_2214195562\"> LTA 模式正在重塑存储行业的估值逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">短期看，LTA 让海力士在本轮现货涨价中跑得比三星、美光慢；长期看，它可能正在改变存储行业的估值方式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">传统上，存储行业被当作强周期股估值：ASP 涨跌决定利润率起伏，利润率又决定股价弹性。但 LTA 的普及让存储厂商的收入曲线变得更平滑——海力士 50% 收入被 LTA 锁定，美光已签署 16 份 SCA（战略客户协议）目标将 50% 以上收入转为长期合约，三星也在加速推进类似模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当 ASP 波动被压缩，市场定价的锚点就从&#34;单季 ASP 涨幅&#34;转向&#34;高盈利可持续性&#34;。这对海力士、美光等龙头而言，意味着估值中枢可能从&#34;周期股&#34;向&#34;AI 基础设施资产&#34;迁移。代价是：在超级周期的某些季度，股价弹性会显得&#34;不够刺激&#34;；投资者需要适应的是，存储龙头的利润曲线将更像云服务或半导体设备公司，而非传统大宗商品存储厂商。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到财务报表，有一个数字需要格外注意：海力士二季度净利润 93.92 万亿韩元，净利率高达 118%——超过 100% 是因为计入了以出售铠侠（Kioxia）股权为主的非营业收益合计约 62.17 万亿韩元（税前）。按公司有效税率约 23.5% 折算，该非营业收益的税后影响约 47.6 万亿韩元；扣除后，核心经营性净利润约为 46.3 万亿韩元。这一异常值不影响主营业务判断，但阅读时必须留意，避免误读为经营性净利率破百。</p><h2 id=\"id_1240059125\">紧盯HBM4放量后的ASP涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海力士这份财报的真正看点，不是 557% 的利润增长，而是 AI 存储牛市进入第二阶段后，行业定价机制发生的变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下季度最值得跟踪的不是营收能否再破纪录，而是HBM4放量能否把ASP涨幅重新拉回到与三星、美光同一条水平线上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅回到 40%-50%，那么二季度的 miss 就会被重新定义为&#34;过渡性折价&#34;；如果 ASP 继续停留在 30% 附近，市场可能开始认真讨论 LTA 对存储龙头估值天花板的长期压制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">无论哪种路径，存储行业的估值逻辑都已经和两年前完全不同了。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"IETC":"iShares U.S. Tech Independence Focused ETF","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","XNTK":"SPDR NYSE Technology ETF","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ 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年期长期供货协议），是 AI 芯片客户与海力士等存储厂商签订的长期采购合约，价格在签约阶段即被锁定，不随现货市场每月波动。对于 AI 训练芯片出货量最大的英伟达而言，这种锁定关系是供应安全的保证；但对于海力士，它是一把双刃剑——当季 DRAM 平均售价（ASP）环比涨幅从第一季度的约 60% 骤降至约 30%，NAND ASP 涨幅也从约 70% 回落至 50-55%。背后的算术很简单：海力士约 50% 的收入被 LTA 合约锁定，而 LTA 恰恰是它 HBM 份额最高的体现。与此同时，现货 DRAM 市场在同一个季度持续飙升——据 TrendForce 数据，二季度通用 DRAM 合约价环比上涨 58-63%，NAND 闪存价格上涨 70-75%，而海力士实际 ASP 涨幅仅为前者的一半左右，导致海力士\"吃\"到了成交量，却没能完全\"吃\"到价格上涨的弹性。韩国 KIS 证券在 7 月 13 日的报告中已提前预警这一矛盾，并将二季度营业利润预测下调至 60.4 万亿韩元——实际值 60.54 万亿韩元，几乎分毫不差。需要强调的是，miss 不是经营恶化。恰恰相反，营业利润率从一季度 71.5% 进一步提升至 76.3%，绝对利润、营收、毛利率、营业利润率全部创历史新高。问题只在于：市场把预期打到了现货价上涨的路径上，而海力士选择了一条更稳、但也更不刺激的 LTA 路径。三大存储巨头 ASP 对比三家巨头的分水岭：三星、美光 beat、海力士 miss同一轮存储超级周期里，三家巨头的表现出现罕见分化。三星电子二季度营收 171 万亿韩元，营业利润 89.4 万亿韩元，营收与利润双双 beat 共识。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨超过 40%，NAND ASP 上涨至 mid-60%，HBM4 已于 2 月开始量产，销售额已超过 12 亿美元。三星在 HBM 赛道一度落后，但如今正以集团资源优势追赶。美光科技（Micron）三季度财报则是一场大胜：营收 414.6 亿美元，比预期高 16%；非 GAAP EPS 25.11 美元，比预期高 22.5%；毛利率 84.9%，第四季度指引营收 500 亿美元（±10 亿）、毛利率约 86%。其 DRAM ASP 环比上涨 60% 以上，NAND ASP 上涨约 85%，均远超海力士。而海力士在公司整体层面营业利润率最高（76.3% vs 三星集团 52% vs 美光约 68%），却是本季度唯一 miss 共识的厂商。需要指出，三星半导体（DS）部门利润率估计约 80%，高于海力士——但三星集团包含手机、显示等低利润业务，拉低了整体水平。这种反差说明：HBM 霸主地位带来了最高的公司级利润率和最稳定的客户关系，但也因为 LTA 锁定最强，现货涨价的弹性被压缩得最厉害。简言之，海力士用 ASP 弹性换了确定性。HBM4 量产与下半年放量：ASP 弹性回归的催化剂如果 LTA 是二季度 miss 的主因，那么 HBM4 的放量节奏就是下半年能否扭转预期的关键变量。海力士在财报中确认，HBM4 已在第二季度开始量产发货，下半年将持续扩大出货规模；更先进的 HBM4E 样品已在 2026 年上半年交付客户。KIS 证券预测，HBM4 从三季度开始放量后，海力士的 ASP 将重新向市场平均水平靠拢。这意味着三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅有望从 30% 的水平回升，LTA 锁定带来的\"折扣\"可能被部分抵消。下游需求端，英伟达下一代 AI 加速器（Vera Rubin）的放量将直接拉动 HBM4 需求；同时，Agentic AI 应用的扩展正在把 AI 内存需求从训练端推向推理端。海力士管理层强调，当前客户需求仍然超过供给，公司的关键竞争优势在于能够满足大规模出货要求。换句话说，二季度的 ASP 折扣并非因为订单不足，而是因为合约价本身低于现货价——只要 HBM4 的出货结构改善，单位收入仍有显著上行空间。在供给端，海力士的资本开支继续加码：2026 年全年 capex 预计在 40-50 万亿韩元的上沿，主要用于 M15X DRAM 工厂量产提速、P&T7 先进封装工厂、M17 NAND 生产基地，以及 2027 年初投产的龙仁半导体集群。截至二季度末，海力士现金储备暴增至 88 万亿韩元，净现金 69.4 万亿韩元（约 456 亿美元），资产负债表已经完全从周期底部翻身。 LTA 模式正在重塑存储行业的估值逻辑短期看，LTA 让海力士在本轮现货涨价中跑得比三星、美光慢；长期看，它可能正在改变存储行业的估值方式。传统上，存储行业被当作强周期股估值：ASP 涨跌决定利润率起伏，利润率又决定股价弹性。但 LTA 的普及让存储厂商的收入曲线变得更平滑——海力士 50% 收入被 LTA 锁定，美光已签署 16 份 SCA（战略客户协议）目标将 50% 以上收入转为长期合约，三星也在加速推进类似模式。当 ASP 波动被压缩，市场定价的锚点就从\"单季 ASP 涨幅\"转向\"高盈利可持续性\"。这对海力士、美光等龙头而言，意味着估值中枢可能从\"周期股\"向\"AI 基础设施资产\"迁移。代价是：在超级周期的某些季度，股价弹性会显得\"不够刺激\"；投资者需要适应的是，存储龙头的利润曲线将更像云服务或半导体设备公司，而非传统大宗商品存储厂商。回到财务报表，有一个数字需要格外注意：海力士二季度净利润 93.92 万亿韩元，净利率高达 118%——超过 100% 是因为计入了以出售铠侠（Kioxia）股权为主的非营业收益合计约 62.17 万亿韩元（税前）。按公司有效税率约 23.5% 折算，该非营业收益的税后影响约 47.6 万亿韩元；扣除后，核心经营性净利润约为 46.3 万亿韩元。这一异常值不影响主营业务判断，但阅读时必须留意，避免误读为经营性净利率破百。紧盯HBM4放量后的ASP涨幅海力士这份财报的真正看点，不是 557% 的利润增长，而是 AI 存储牛市进入第二阶段后，行业定价机制发生的变化。下季度最值得跟踪的不是营收能否再破纪录，而是HBM4放量能否把ASP涨幅重新拉回到与三星、美光同一条水平线上。如果三季度 DRAM ASP 环比涨幅回到 40%-50%，那么二季度的 miss 就会被重新定义为\"过渡性折价\"；如果 ASP 继续停留在 30% 附近，市场可能开始认真讨论 LTA 对存储龙头估值天花板的长期压制。无论哪种路径，存储行业的估值逻辑都已经和两年前完全不同了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IXN":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"SK":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"PTF":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"HBMX":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"SKHY":1.97,"SOXQ":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"SKUU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590646366011440,"gmtCreate":1785252100788,"gmtModify":1785252798109,"author":{"id":"4175766326455102","authorId":"4175766326455102","name":"杨过爱上黄蓉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab63b91b31f0b9dd1f60a219a52e73b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4175766326455102","idStr":"4175766326455102"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"特朗普能不能直接干脆一点，再光说不干，就没人吧他当回事了","listText":"特朗普能不能直接干脆一点，再光说不干，就没人吧他当回事了","text":"特朗普能不能直接干脆一点，再光说不干，就没人吧他当回事了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590646366011440","repostId":"2654267883","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2654267883","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785251273,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2654267883?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"冲突继续暂停，特朗普威胁若无协议将摧毁镐山，阿曼推进海峡管理计划","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2654267883","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美伊进入脆弱停火期，外交与军事博弈并行。特朗普称，美国目前在伊朗问题上处于非常强势的地位，如果没能与伊朗达成协议，美军将摧毁“镐山”。同时，阿曼向伊朗提出了一项联合管理霍尔木兹海峡航运的地区机制，通行海峡的船只可基于自愿原则捐款，当前谈判前景仍不明朗。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美伊军事冲突进入脆弱停火阶段，外交斡旋与军事威胁并行推进，局势走向仍高度不确定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CCTV国际时讯，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时表示，“伊朗明白他们永远不会拥有核武器，并已公开表示双方正在进行对话。伊朗位于纳坦兹以南的‘镐山’地下设施并非大问题——<strong>但如果没能与伊朗达成协议，美军将摧毁‘镐山’。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，阿曼提出联合管理霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>新机制，为局势提供了潜在的外交出口。据央视新闻，<strong>一名海湾地区消息人士28日披露，阿曼向伊朗提出了一项联合管理霍尔木兹海峡航运的地区机制，通行海峡的船只可基于自愿原则捐款。</strong>目前，阿曼和伊朗官方均未证实这一消息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，以防长证实以境内美军机持续参与对伊打击行动。据央视新闻，当地时间28日，以色列国防部长卡茨在接受采访时披露，美军战机和加油机一直从以色列境内的军事基地起飞，用于对伊朗实施军事打击。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普强硬表态，谈判窗口仍存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CCTV国际时讯，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时表示，<strong>美国目前在伊朗问题上处于非常强势的地位。</strong>特朗普称，希望能避免攻击伊朗的发电厂和桥梁，但也“不能再容忍伊朗破坏协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，据新华社，美国总统特朗普27日称，<strong>他有足够的耐心和时间与伊朗达成协议，但如果达不成新的停火协议，美国将恢复对伊朗军事打击。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普当天在总统专机“空军一号”上对媒体表示，目前美伊谈判“进行良好”，“我认为很可能会发生什么事。如果发生了，那很好；如果没有发生，我们就恢复到两天前的状态”。他还称，美军目前弹药库存充足，有大量不同类型的弹药。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在谈到即将于28日同到访的以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会谈时，特朗普说，<strong>两人在伊朗问题上立场“有一些分歧，但总体来说非常接近”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据央视新闻，内塔尼亚胡当地时间27日抵达美国，预计28日在白宫与特朗普举行会谈。白宫发布的消息显示，他将与特朗普讨论伊朗战事、有关以色列与阿拉伯国家关系正常化的“亚伯拉罕协议”，以及美以和黎巴嫩先前达成的三方框架协议进展。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">阿曼提出霍尔木兹联合管理方案</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在军事威慑持续之际，阿曼正试图推动外交突破。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据央视新闻援引消息人士，阿曼已向伊朗提出建立霍尔木兹海峡联合管理机制。<strong>新机制参考马六甲海峡的管理办法，使用方自愿向维护航道的相关基金捐款，用于环境保护和搜救工作等。阿曼的最新提议得到了一些地区国家支持。暂不清楚伊朗会如何回应这一提议。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据援引美国官员及多名参与调解人士报道，伊朗与阿曼仍在多个关键问题上存在明显分歧，<strong>其中最核心的问题之一是是否应向过境船舶收取费用。</strong>不过，各方均表示谈判取得一定进展，当前谈判前景仍不明朗。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另据新华社援引伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台28日报道，伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人说，<strong>接受美国使用伊朗资产进行所谓赔偿的任何国家或公司，其所属船只将不被允许通过霍尔木兹海峡。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>冲突继续暂停，特朗普威胁若无协议将摧毁镐山，阿曼推进海峡管理计划</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n冲突继续暂停，特朗普威胁若无协议将摧毁镐山，阿曼推进海峡管理计划\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-28 23:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美伊军事冲突进入脆弱停火阶段，外交斡旋与军事威胁并行推进，局势走向仍高度不确定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CCTV国际时讯，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时表示，“伊朗明白他们永远不会拥有核武器，并已公开表示双方正在进行对话。伊朗位于纳坦兹以南的‘镐山’地下设施并非大问题——<strong>但如果没能与伊朗达成协议，美军将摧毁‘镐山’。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，阿曼提出联合管理霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>新机制，为局势提供了潜在的外交出口。据央视新闻，<strong>一名海湾地区消息人士28日披露，阿曼向伊朗提出了一项联合管理霍尔木兹海峡航运的地区机制，通行海峡的船只可基于自愿原则捐款。</strong>目前，阿曼和伊朗官方均未证实这一消息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，以防长证实以境内美军机持续参与对伊打击行动。据央视新闻，当地时间28日，以色列国防部长卡茨在接受采访时披露，美军战机和加油机一直从以色列境内的军事基地起飞，用于对伊朗实施军事打击。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普强硬表态，谈判窗口仍存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CCTV国际时讯，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时表示，<strong>美国目前在伊朗问题上处于非常强势的地位。</strong>特朗普称，希望能避免攻击伊朗的发电厂和桥梁，但也“不能再容忍伊朗破坏协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，据新华社，美国总统特朗普27日称，<strong>他有足够的耐心和时间与伊朗达成协议，但如果达不成新的停火协议，美国将恢复对伊朗军事打击。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普当天在总统专机“空军一号”上对媒体表示，目前美伊谈判“进行良好”，“我认为很可能会发生什么事。如果发生了，那很好；如果没有发生，我们就恢复到两天前的状态”。他还称，美军目前弹药库存充足，有大量不同类型的弹药。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在谈到即将于28日同到访的以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会谈时，特朗普说，<strong>两人在伊朗问题上立场“有一些分歧，但总体来说非常接近”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据央视新闻，内塔尼亚胡当地时间27日抵达美国，预计28日在白宫与特朗普举行会谈。白宫发布的消息显示，他将与特朗普讨论伊朗战事、有关以色列与阿拉伯国家关系正常化的“亚伯拉罕协议”，以及美以和黎巴嫩先前达成的三方框架协议进展。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">阿曼提出霍尔木兹联合管理方案</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在军事威慑持续之际，阿曼正试图推动外交突破。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据央视新闻援引消息人士，阿曼已向伊朗提出建立霍尔木兹海峡联合管理机制。<strong>新机制参考马六甲海峡的管理办法，使用方自愿向维护航道的相关基金捐款，用于环境保护和搜救工作等。阿曼的最新提议得到了一些地区国家支持。暂不清楚伊朗会如何回应这一提议。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据援引美国官员及多名参与调解人士报道，伊朗与阿曼仍在多个关键问题上存在明显分歧，<strong>其中最核心的问题之一是是否应向过境船舶收取费用。</strong>不过，各方均表示谈判取得一定进展，当前谈判前景仍不明朗。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另据新华社援引伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台28日报道，伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人说，<strong>接受美国使用伊朗资产进行所谓赔偿的任何国家或公司，其所属船只将不被允许通过霍尔木兹海峡。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ea096813068f44d0055ab9705f74e54","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778143","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2654267883","content_text":"美伊军事冲突进入脆弱停火阶段，外交斡旋与军事威胁并行推进，局势走向仍高度不确定。据CCTV国际时讯，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时表示，“伊朗明白他们永远不会拥有核武器，并已公开表示双方正在进行对话。伊朗位于纳坦兹以南的‘镐山’地下设施并非大问题——但如果没能与伊朗达成协议，美军将摧毁‘镐山’。与此同时，阿曼提出联合管理霍尔木兹海峡新机制，为局势提供了潜在的外交出口。据央视新闻，一名海湾地区消息人士28日披露，阿曼向伊朗提出了一项联合管理霍尔木兹海峡航运的地区机制，通行海峡的船只可基于自愿原则捐款。目前，阿曼和伊朗官方均未证实这一消息。此外，以防长证实以境内美军机持续参与对伊打击行动。据央视新闻，当地时间28日，以色列国防部长卡茨在接受采访时披露，美军战机和加油机一直从以色列境内的军事基地起飞，用于对伊朗实施军事打击。特朗普强硬表态，谈判窗口仍存据CCTV国际时讯，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时表示，美国目前在伊朗问题上处于非常强势的地位。特朗普称，希望能避免攻击伊朗的发电厂和桥梁，但也“不能再容忍伊朗破坏协议”。此前，据新华社，美国总统特朗普27日称，他有足够的耐心和时间与伊朗达成协议，但如果达不成新的停火协议，美国将恢复对伊朗军事打击。特朗普当天在总统专机“空军一号”上对媒体表示，目前美伊谈判“进行良好”，“我认为很可能会发生什么事。如果发生了，那很好；如果没有发生，我们就恢复到两天前的状态”。他还称，美军目前弹药库存充足，有大量不同类型的弹药。在谈到即将于28日同到访的以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会谈时，特朗普说，两人在伊朗问题上立场“有一些分歧，但总体来说非常接近”。据央视新闻，内塔尼亚胡当地时间27日抵达美国，预计28日在白宫与特朗普举行会谈。白宫发布的消息显示，他将与特朗普讨论伊朗战事、有关以色列与阿拉伯国家关系正常化的“亚伯拉罕协议”，以及美以和黎巴嫩先前达成的三方框架协议进展。阿曼提出霍尔木兹联合管理方案在军事威慑持续之际，阿曼正试图推动外交突破。据央视新闻援引消息人士，阿曼已向伊朗提出建立霍尔木兹海峡联合管理机制。新机制参考马六甲海峡的管理办法，使用方自愿向维护航道的相关基金捐款，用于环境保护和搜救工作等。阿曼的最新提议得到了一些地区国家支持。暂不清楚伊朗会如何回应这一提议。据援引美国官员及多名参与调解人士报道，伊朗与阿曼仍在多个关键问题上存在明显分歧，其中最核心的问题之一是是否应向过境船舶收取费用。不过，各方均表示谈判取得一定进展，当前谈判前景仍不明朗。另据新华社援引伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台28日报道，伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人说，接受美国使用伊朗资产进行所谓赔偿的任何国家或公司，其所属船只将不被允许通过霍尔木兹海峡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590820227134504,"gmtCreate":1785244770339,"gmtModify":1785244772193,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"股价涨了几倍，这财报顶多50分。。。","listText":"股价涨了几倍，这财报顶多50分。。。","text":"股价涨了几倍，这财报顶多50分。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590820227134504","repostId":"1156991492","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156991492","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785242510,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156991492?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-28 20:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"康宁交了一份\"满分\"财报，市场却想给它打负分","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156991492","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场真正的分歧在于：康宁到底应该被当作一家周期性的材料公司，还是一家结构性的AI成长公司？如果是前者，44倍PE就是泡沫。如果是后者，在当前AI Capex还在加速上量的背景下，或许还撑得住。但现在的市场定价在告诉所有人一件事——投资者没有被完全说服。\n","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLW\">康宁</a>周二盘前交出了2026年第二季度财报：核心营收47.4亿美元，同比增长17%；核心每股收益0.78美元，同比增长30%。两项数据均超出市场预期。但盘前交易中股价一度下跌18%——市场用脚投票的速度，比财报本身来得更直接。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份财报最强的部分在光通信：<strong>部门Q2卖了20.7亿美元，同比增长32%。其中企业网络业务长了65%——而生成式AI相关产品的增速，按公司自己的说法，&#34;显著更快&#34;。康宁没有给出具体数字，但你大致可以想象那是一条什么样的曲线。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本季度康宁还锁定了两个足以让它在AI叙事里坐稳位置的大单。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>亚马逊签署了一份多年期、价值数十亿美元的协议，由康宁为它在美国全境扩张的数据中心供应光纤、光缆和全套连接方案。英伟达也跟康宁建立了长期合作，康宁承诺把美国光连接制造产能扩张十倍、光纤产能提升超过50%，来匹配AI工厂的建设速度。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这两份协议放在一起，意味着康宁和AI基础设施之间的关系已经不只是&#34;供应商&#34;这个层面了——它正在变成一种战略共生。这种稀缺性，是市场愿意给它从传统制造业估值向科技股估值迁移的底层逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">问题在于，当你已经把叙事吃到了这个程度，市场要看的就不再是你做到了什么，而是你有没有超过所有人已经替你算好的账。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">康宁给出的Q3指引：核心营收49到50亿美元，核心每股收益0.85到0.89美元。EPS没什么可挑的——中值0.87美元对应约28%的同比增长，略高于卖方预期的0.85美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但营收这边就微妙了。分析师对Q3的一致预期大概是50亿美元，康宁给的上限刚好碰到这个数字，中值49.5亿实际上略低于市场心理价位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在一个已经把全年EPS预期打到3.18美元、远期市盈率超过44倍的定价框架里，中值略低于预期就已经构成了一个问题。这不是业绩差——这是定价太高。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">康宁的估值膨胀有它自己的故事逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月投资者日上，管理层把Springboard计划大幅上修：到今年底年化营收200亿美元，2028年底300亿，2030年底400亿；从2026年Q4到2030年Q4的营收年化复合增速目标19%，利润增速还要快于营收。配合亚马逊和英伟达接连落地的合作协议，<strong>市场迅速把康宁从&#34;特殊玻璃制造商&#34;重新定价成了&#34;AI基础设施核心供应商&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个重新定价的烈度，股价走势已经交代得很清楚了。从年初大约87美元起步，六个多月冲到6月底的历史高点271.78美元。即便最近一个多月从高点回落了将近一半，周一收在143美元，年内涨幅仍然超过六成。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c1a00efbe4a8fd7de94a832146ccbef5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"605\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着什么？<strong>意味着康宁的财报已经不是在跟&#34;去年同期的自己&#34;比赛了，而是在跟一个已经把AI Capex超级周期充分折现的估值框架比赛。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">光通信32%的增长够不够？对一家40倍PE的传统材料公司来说，简直奢侈。但对一家市场已经按照AI成长股来定价、共识目标价还在215美元以上的公司来说，这份财报说到底只是&#34;对得起预期&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这恰恰是市场现在最纠结的地方。华尔街目前有16位分析师覆盖康宁，9个给买入、7个给持有，共识目标价大约215美元。即便从当前价位看还有超过50%的理论上行空间，市场显然没有在买这笔账——买入评级占比也从年初的七成六慢慢滑到了七成。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场真正的分歧在于一个绕不过去的问题：<strong>康宁到底应该被当作一家周期性的材料公司，还是一家结构性的AI成长公司？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>如果是前者，44倍PE就是泡沫。如果是后者，在当前AI Capex还在加速上量的背景下，或许还撑得住。但现在的市场定价在告诉所有人一件事——投资者没有被完全说服。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报里不是没有让人安心的东西。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利润率那边的数据其实相当不错。核心毛利率39.6%，同比扩大了120个基点。核心运营利润率20.9%，同比扩大了190个基点，延续了连续九个季度的同比较快增长。核心ROIC达到14.9%，同比提升了180个基点。调整后自由现金流14.2亿美元。这种持续性的增长本身就在替你回答很多关于&#34;周期股还是成长股&#34;的问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">太阳能业务则更像一张还在印刷中的期票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q2营收同比增长了90%，但因为本季度硅片工厂进行了延长检修停机和设备升级——包括切换到永久性供电系统——利润端还有拖累。管理层承诺Q3太阳能业务的盈利将改善，并且最终目标是年营收超过30亿美元，&#34;具有强劲的利润和现金流&#34;。但在真正看到利润率改善之前，这块业务在估值模型里扮演的角色更像是一个看涨期权，而不是已经兑现的价值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到核心矛盾。康宁的AI叙事是真实的，光通信的客户结构和订单质量都站得住脚，利润率改善的速度证明经营杠杆确实在释放。但当前市场的博弈已经不在&#34;故事真不真&#34;这个层面了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当一只股票半年涨了两倍，任何不能在数字上碾压预期的财报——哪怕它本身已经非常漂亮——都可能在短期遭遇定价的重新校准。康宁周二交出的这份成绩单，最终没能做到那件事。它不是一份坏财报，它只是没有好到能让所有人忘记它有多贵。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>康宁交了一份\"满分\"财报，市场却想给它打负分</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n康宁交了一份\"满分\"财报，市场却想给它打负分\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-28 20:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLW\">康宁</a>周二盘前交出了2026年第二季度财报：核心营收47.4亿美元，同比增长17%；核心每股收益0.78美元，同比增长30%。两项数据均超出市场预期。但盘前交易中股价一度下跌18%——市场用脚投票的速度，比财报本身来得更直接。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份财报最强的部分在光通信：<strong>部门Q2卖了20.7亿美元，同比增长32%。其中企业网络业务长了65%——而生成式AI相关产品的增速，按公司自己的说法，&#34;显著更快&#34;。康宁没有给出具体数字，但你大致可以想象那是一条什么样的曲线。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本季度康宁还锁定了两个足以让它在AI叙事里坐稳位置的大单。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>亚马逊签署了一份多年期、价值数十亿美元的协议，由康宁为它在美国全境扩张的数据中心供应光纤、光缆和全套连接方案。英伟达也跟康宁建立了长期合作，康宁承诺把美国光连接制造产能扩张十倍、光纤产能提升超过50%，来匹配AI工厂的建设速度。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这两份协议放在一起，意味着康宁和AI基础设施之间的关系已经不只是&#34;供应商&#34;这个层面了——它正在变成一种战略共生。这种稀缺性，是市场愿意给它从传统制造业估值向科技股估值迁移的底层逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">问题在于，当你已经把叙事吃到了这个程度，市场要看的就不再是你做到了什么，而是你有没有超过所有人已经替你算好的账。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">康宁给出的Q3指引：核心营收49到50亿美元，核心每股收益0.85到0.89美元。EPS没什么可挑的——中值0.87美元对应约28%的同比增长，略高于卖方预期的0.85美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但营收这边就微妙了。分析师对Q3的一致预期大概是50亿美元，康宁给的上限刚好碰到这个数字，中值49.5亿实际上略低于市场心理价位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在一个已经把全年EPS预期打到3.18美元、远期市盈率超过44倍的定价框架里，中值略低于预期就已经构成了一个问题。这不是业绩差——这是定价太高。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">康宁的估值膨胀有它自己的故事逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月投资者日上，管理层把Springboard计划大幅上修：到今年底年化营收200亿美元，2028年底300亿，2030年底400亿；从2026年Q4到2030年Q4的营收年化复合增速目标19%，利润增速还要快于营收。配合亚马逊和英伟达接连落地的合作协议，<strong>市场迅速把康宁从&#34;特殊玻璃制造商&#34;重新定价成了&#34;AI基础设施核心供应商&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个重新定价的烈度，股价走势已经交代得很清楚了。从年初大约87美元起步，六个多月冲到6月底的历史高点271.78美元。即便最近一个多月从高点回落了将近一半，周一收在143美元，年内涨幅仍然超过六成。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c1a00efbe4a8fd7de94a832146ccbef5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"605\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着什么？<strong>意味着康宁的财报已经不是在跟&#34;去年同期的自己&#34;比赛了，而是在跟一个已经把AI Capex超级周期充分折现的估值框架比赛。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">光通信32%的增长够不够？对一家40倍PE的传统材料公司来说，简直奢侈。但对一家市场已经按照AI成长股来定价、共识目标价还在215美元以上的公司来说，这份财报说到底只是&#34;对得起预期&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这恰恰是市场现在最纠结的地方。华尔街目前有16位分析师覆盖康宁，9个给买入、7个给持有，共识目标价大约215美元。即便从当前价位看还有超过50%的理论上行空间，市场显然没有在买这笔账——买入评级占比也从年初的七成六慢慢滑到了七成。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场真正的分歧在于一个绕不过去的问题：<strong>康宁到底应该被当作一家周期性的材料公司，还是一家结构性的AI成长公司？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>如果是前者，44倍PE就是泡沫。如果是后者，在当前AI Capex还在加速上量的背景下，或许还撑得住。但现在的市场定价在告诉所有人一件事——投资者没有被完全说服。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报里不是没有让人安心的东西。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利润率那边的数据其实相当不错。核心毛利率39.6%，同比扩大了120个基点。核心运营利润率20.9%，同比扩大了190个基点，延续了连续九个季度的同比较快增长。核心ROIC达到14.9%，同比提升了180个基点。调整后自由现金流14.2亿美元。这种持续性的增长本身就在替你回答很多关于&#34;周期股还是成长股&#34;的问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">太阳能业务则更像一张还在印刷中的期票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q2营收同比增长了90%，但因为本季度硅片工厂进行了延长检修停机和设备升级——包括切换到永久性供电系统——利润端还有拖累。管理层承诺Q3太阳能业务的盈利将改善，并且最终目标是年营收超过30亿美元，&#34;具有强劲的利润和现金流&#34;。但在真正看到利润率改善之前，这块业务在估值模型里扮演的角色更像是一个看涨期权，而不是已经兑现的价值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到核心矛盾。康宁的AI叙事是真实的，光通信的客户结构和订单质量都站得住脚，利润率改善的速度证明经营杠杆确实在释放。但当前市场的博弈已经不在&#34;故事真不真&#34;这个层面了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当一只股票半年涨了两倍，任何不能在数字上碾压预期的财报——哪怕它本身已经非常漂亮——都可能在短期遭遇定价的重新校准。康宁周二交出的这份成绩单，最终没能做到那件事。它不是一份坏财报，它只是没有好到能让所有人忘记它有多贵。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b765e25c9aa849340271dbae850c005d","relate_stocks":{"GLW":"康宁","GLWG":"Leverage Shares 2X Long GLW Daily ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156991492","content_text":"康宁周二盘前交出了2026年第二季度财报：核心营收47.4亿美元，同比增长17%；核心每股收益0.78美元，同比增长30%。两项数据均超出市场预期。但盘前交易中股价一度下跌18%——市场用脚投票的速度，比财报本身来得更直接。这份财报最强的部分在光通信：部门Q2卖了20.7亿美元，同比增长32%。其中企业网络业务长了65%——而生成式AI相关产品的增速，按公司自己的说法，\"显著更快\"。康宁没有给出具体数字，但你大致可以想象那是一条什么样的曲线。本季度康宁还锁定了两个足以让它在AI叙事里坐稳位置的大单。亚马逊签署了一份多年期、价值数十亿美元的协议，由康宁为它在美国全境扩张的数据中心供应光纤、光缆和全套连接方案。英伟达也跟康宁建立了长期合作，康宁承诺把美国光连接制造产能扩张十倍、光纤产能提升超过50%，来匹配AI工厂的建设速度。这两份协议放在一起，意味着康宁和AI基础设施之间的关系已经不只是\"供应商\"这个层面了——它正在变成一种战略共生。这种稀缺性，是市场愿意给它从传统制造业估值向科技股估值迁移的底层逻辑。问题在于，当你已经把叙事吃到了这个程度，市场要看的就不再是你做到了什么，而是你有没有超过所有人已经替你算好的账。康宁给出的Q3指引：核心营收49到50亿美元，核心每股收益0.85到0.89美元。EPS没什么可挑的——中值0.87美元对应约28%的同比增长，略高于卖方预期的0.85美元。但营收这边就微妙了。分析师对Q3的一致预期大概是50亿美元，康宁给的上限刚好碰到这个数字，中值49.5亿实际上略低于市场心理价位。在一个已经把全年EPS预期打到3.18美元、远期市盈率超过44倍的定价框架里，中值略低于预期就已经构成了一个问题。这不是业绩差——这是定价太高。康宁的估值膨胀有它自己的故事逻辑。5月投资者日上，管理层把Springboard计划大幅上修：到今年底年化营收200亿美元，2028年底300亿，2030年底400亿；从2026年Q4到2030年Q4的营收年化复合增速目标19%，利润增速还要快于营收。配合亚马逊和英伟达接连落地的合作协议，市场迅速把康宁从\"特殊玻璃制造商\"重新定价成了\"AI基础设施核心供应商\"。这个重新定价的烈度，股价走势已经交代得很清楚了。从年初大约87美元起步，六个多月冲到6月底的历史高点271.78美元。即便最近一个多月从高点回落了将近一半，周一收在143美元，年内涨幅仍然超过六成。这意味着什么？意味着康宁的财报已经不是在跟\"去年同期的自己\"比赛了，而是在跟一个已经把AI Capex超级周期充分折现的估值框架比赛。光通信32%的增长够不够？对一家40倍PE的传统材料公司来说，简直奢侈。但对一家市场已经按照AI成长股来定价、共识目标价还在215美元以上的公司来说，这份财报说到底只是\"对得起预期\"。这恰恰是市场现在最纠结的地方。华尔街目前有16位分析师覆盖康宁，9个给买入、7个给持有，共识目标价大约215美元。即便从当前价位看还有超过50%的理论上行空间，市场显然没有在买这笔账——买入评级占比也从年初的七成六慢慢滑到了七成。市场真正的分歧在于一个绕不过去的问题：康宁到底应该被当作一家周期性的材料公司，还是一家结构性的AI成长公司？如果是前者，44倍PE就是泡沫。如果是后者，在当前AI Capex还在加速上量的背景下，或许还撑得住。但现在的市场定价在告诉所有人一件事——投资者没有被完全说服。财报里不是没有让人安心的东西。利润率那边的数据其实相当不错。核心毛利率39.6%，同比扩大了120个基点。核心运营利润率20.9%，同比扩大了190个基点，延续了连续九个季度的同比较快增长。核心ROIC达到14.9%，同比提升了180个基点。调整后自由现金流14.2亿美元。这种持续性的增长本身就在替你回答很多关于\"周期股还是成长股\"的问题。太阳能业务则更像一张还在印刷中的期票。Q2营收同比增长了90%，但因为本季度硅片工厂进行了延长检修停机和设备升级——包括切换到永久性供电系统——利润端还有拖累。管理层承诺Q3太阳能业务的盈利将改善，并且最终目标是年营收超过30亿美元，\"具有强劲的利润和现金流\"。但在真正看到利润率改善之前，这块业务在估值模型里扮演的角色更像是一个看涨期权，而不是已经兑现的价值。回到核心矛盾。康宁的AI叙事是真实的，光通信的客户结构和订单质量都站得住脚，利润率改善的速度证明经营杠杆确实在释放。但当前市场的博弈已经不在\"故事真不真\"这个层面了。当一只股票半年涨了两倍，任何不能在数字上碾压预期的财报——哪怕它本身已经非常漂亮——都可能在短期遭遇定价的重新校准。康宁周二交出的这份成绩单，最终没能做到那件事。它不是一份坏财报，它只是没有好到能让所有人忘记它有多贵。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GLWG":0.6,"GLW":2.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590809669936264,"gmtCreate":1785242232079,"gmtModify":1785242233879,"author":{"id":"3507987828530315","authorId":"3507987828530315","name":"发财喽","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3507987828530315","idStr":"3507987828530315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590809669936264","repostId":"1187931355","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187931355","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785197923,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187931355?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-28 08:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中国DRAM巨头搅动全球格局，美股存储芯片跳水，SK海力士破发，闪迪一个月接近腰斩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187931355","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21ac8ecb5c5dcf5cc5f94e612e8c0127\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/857babbd27fd7e1470bfb614f1eac087\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac643d36cc83251efa77003eda7b4b1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。</p><h2 id=\"id_1280442175\">中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。</p><h2 id=\"id_1213106346\">长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。</p><h2 id=\"id_1542057506\">AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-28 08:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21ac8ecb5c5dcf5cc5f94e612e8c0127\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/857babbd27fd7e1470bfb614f1eac087\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac643d36cc83251efa77003eda7b4b1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。</p><h2 id=\"id_1280442175\">中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。</p><h2 id=\"id_1213106346\">长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。</p><h2 id=\"id_1542057506\">AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","SKHU":"2倍做多海力士-ProShares","AMDG":"2倍做多AMD ETF- Leverage Shares","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","SKHX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","AMDL":"2倍做多AMD ETF-GraniteShares","SKHY":"SK海力士","ASMU":"Direxion Daily ASML Bull 2X ETF","SKHZ":"1倍做空海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","MUU":"2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion","MU":"美光科技","HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX","SNDC":"Corgi SNDK 2x Daily ETF","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF","NVDB":"ProShares Ultra NVDA ETF","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","MUYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOSTMU ETF","DAMD":"2倍做空AMD ETF-Defiance","SNDG":"Leverage Shares 2X Long SNDK Daily ETF","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","AMDU":"Defiance Leveraged Long + Income AMD ETF","MUD":"1倍做空MU ETF-Direxion","MUZ":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MU ETF","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","SNDQ":"Tradr 2X Short SNDK Daily ETF","NVDG":"2倍做多NVDA ETF- Leverage Shares","AMUU":"2倍做多AMD ETF-Direxion","SNDK":"闪迪","AMDW":"Roundhill AMD WeeklyPay ETF","WDCX":"Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF","SKDD":"2倍做空海力士ETF-GraniteShares","SNDU":"T-Rex 2X Long SNDK Daily Target ETF","07709":"XL二南方海力士","NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","SNXX":"Tradr 2X Long SNDK Daily ETF","SKUU":"2倍做多海力士ETF-GraniteShares","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","AMDY":"AMD期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","MIC":"2倍做多MU ETF-Corgi","NVDQ":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-T-Rex","ASML":"阿斯麦","AMYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST AMD ETF","NVDO":"2倍上限加速NVDA ETF-Leverage Shares","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","WDC":"西部数据","07388":"南方两倍做空英伟达","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","STX":"希捷科技","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","ASMG":"2倍做多ASML ETF- Leverage Shares","AMDD":"1倍做空AMD ETF-Direxion","DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187931355","content_text":"周一盘中，闪迪跌超10%、市值一个月蒸发1700亿美元，SK海力士ADR曾跌10%，美光一度跌超7%。多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。有分析师认为，存储芯片股回调提供了新的布局机会。国存储芯片龙头长鑫科技登陆A股首日的火爆表现，正在成为全球存储芯片板块的新变量。周一美股盘中，存储芯片股重挫，成为大盘最大拖累。闪迪（SNDK）盘中跌超10%、早盘刷新日低时跌约14.6%，较6月22日创下的历史高点累跌47%，过去一个月内市值蒸发约1700亿美元；SK海力士ADR（SKHY）盘中曾跌约10%，西部数据（WDC）和希捷科技（STX）盘中曾分别跌超9%和8%，美光科技（MU）一度跌超7%。到收盘，闪迪、SK海力士ADR、西部数据、希捷科技和美光分别跌约11%、7.5%、4.2%、4.1%和2.3%。SK海力士自7月10日赴美上市以来首次收盘跌破IPO发行价，收盘较发行价低4%。早盘刷新日低时，追踪芯片股总体表现的费城半导体指数跌约5%，表现远逊三大美股指，最终收跌2.2%。标普500指数和纳指刷新日低时分别跌约0.4%和0.8%，道指全天保持涨势。市场普遍将矛头指向当天在上交所科创板上市的长鑫科技（CXMT）。这家中国最大的DRAM厂商上市首日股价暴涨超460%，市值突破3万亿元人民币，成为新的A股市值一哥，也令全球投资者重新评估未来几年DRAM行业的竞争格局。中国DRAM龙头上市，引发全球存储板块重估对于本周一美股存储芯片股大跌，多家外媒认为，市场担忧的并非长鑫科技短期业绩，而是全球DRAM供给格局未来可能发生变化。分析认为，长鑫科技完成亚洲今年规模最大的IPO后，意味着公司获得更加充裕的资本支持，其未来扩产、技术研发以及向HBM等AI高端存储领域迈进的能力都有望增强。对于此前已经大幅上涨的全球存储芯片龙头而言，这意味着长期竞争压力正在上升。有评论指出，市场担心随着长鑫科技融资完成，未来DRAM新增供给可能加快释放，从而削弱当前市场对于存储价格持续上涨的乐观预期。与此同时，此前美光、SK海力士、闪迪等存储股经历了大幅上涨，在高估值背景下，任何竞争格局变化都容易触发获利回吐。还有评论认为，本轮回调更多体现为市场重新定价。虽然AI推动的HBM需求依旧强劲，但投资者开始重新思考：如果中国厂商持续提升产能和技术实力，未来传统DRAM业务是否会提前进入竞争加剧阶段，进而影响行业利润率。不过，不少分析师认为，市场反应可能存在一定程度的过度解读。目前长鑫科技产品仍主要集中在DDR4、DDR5等传统DRAM领域，而美光、SK海力士和三星当前利润增长最快的业务来自HBM等AI存储产品。受美国出口限制影响，长鑫科技短期内进入HBM高端市场仍面临较高技术门槛，因此全球AI存储市场格局短期内难以发生根本改变。长鑫科技首日暴涨，资本市场押注“中国存储”长鑫科技此次IPO本身就备受全球关注。公司此次募集资金约579亿元人民币（约86亿美元），创今年亚洲IPO募资规模新高。上市首日、本周一，公司股价收盘较发行价涨465.82%，总市值达3.28万亿，超越工商银行、成为A股总市值之首，市值相当于两个贵州茅台。周一全天，长鑫科技成交额超1400亿元，成为A股史上首只单日成交额突破千亿元的个股。公开资料显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大的DRAM芯片制造商，也是中国实现DRAM自主研发和量产的重要代表企业。目前公司产品覆盖消费电子、PC、服务器、汽车电子等多个领域，并持续推进DDR5等新产品研发。国内媒体普遍认为，长鑫科技上市不仅意味着中国半导体产业迎来新的里程碑，也意味着资本市场正在给予国产高端制造和“硬科技”更高估值溢价。市场期待募集资金将进一步支持先进制程研发、扩大产能以及完善国产存储产业链。AI时代，真正决定胜负的仍是HBM不过，从全球竞争格局来看，多数机构仍认为，美光、SK海力士和三星在AI存储领域的领先优势短期难以撼动。当前AI服务器需求爆发，使HBM成为全球最紧缺的半导体产品之一。美光和SK海力士几乎包揽了英伟达等AI芯片厂商的HBM供应，相关业务也是推动两家公司盈利快速增长的核心动力。因此，不少分析人士认为，周一存储股的大跌更像是一次情绪驱动的估值调整，而非行业基本面出现拐点。随着AI基础设施建设持续推进，高端存储需求仍有望保持高速增长。Bernstein分析师Mark Li甚至认为，当天板块回调反而提供了新的布局机会。他预计，到2027年至2028年，全球存储芯片市场收入仍有望突破1.3万亿美元，AI时代的数据中心建设将持续支撑DRAM和HBM需求增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDO":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"AMD":2,"MU":2,"AMDG":0.6,"SK":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"WDC":2,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"ASML":2,"NVDA":2,"SKUU":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"07388":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"WDCX":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"SNDK":2,"NVDB":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"ASMU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"07709":0.6,"SNDG":0.6,"STX":2,"NVYY":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"ASMG":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"SKHY":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590790912238728,"gmtCreate":1785237652563,"gmtModify":1785237979714,"author":{"id":"3436790964678141","authorId":"3436790964678141","name":"shyicarus","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3436790964678141","idStr":"3436790964678141"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这**的只会做空，再让他爆仓几次","listText":"这**的只会做空，再让他爆仓几次","text":"这**的只会做空，再让他爆仓几次","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/590790912238728","repostId":"2654842068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2654842068","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785047083,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2654842068?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-26 14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“大空头”继续狙击AI！Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位，维持做空特斯拉、Palantir","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2654842068","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Burry发文披露最新持仓动向，扩大对美光、英伟达及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位，同时新增做空卡特彼勒，并维持做空特斯拉、Palantir及持有纳斯达克100看跌期权。他认为英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户，而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;大空头&#34;Michael Burry再度加码做空美光等AI相关股票，并维持对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>的空头押注，其对半导体板块的看空逻辑正受到市场越来越多的关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry于当地时间7月25日在Substack发文披露最新持仓动向，显示他<strong>进一步扩大了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位，同时新增做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88feab16c1c637e5f7c39eb4fb752f9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"368\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他明确表示，<strong>英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户，而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动，并援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告加以佐证。</strong>与此同时，他<strong>对特斯拉和Palantir的空头仓位保持不变，并继续持有纳斯达克100 ETF的看跌期权。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次披露正值半导体板块承压之际。华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry此前曾表示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>公布的韩国半导体资本支出计划，是半导体行业景气周期&#34;由盛转衰的开始&#34;，并预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，认为AI基础设施相关公司估值已严重偏高。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">扩大半导体空头：美光、英伟达、SOXX齐齐加码</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在Substack文章中披露，他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技，以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位，并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。他表示，<strong>SOXX空头仓位与其持有的看跌期权合并计算，已构成其投资组合中的一个大型仓位。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在英伟达的做空逻辑上，Burry措辞直接。他表示，<strong>目前英伟达大量需求并非由真实终端客户驱动，相关需求的融资安排游离于资产负债表之外且未予披露，未来收入&#34;大部分通过循环安排融资&#34;</strong>。他援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告作为支撑依据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，这并非Burry首次出手做空美光。华尔街见闻文章写道，Burry此前曾在1051.87美元的价位做空美光，并表示&#34;对这类情形的最终结局有相当清晰的了解&#34;，同时还增加了另外五个做空仓位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Burry对AI相关板块的看空，建立在对行业需求真实性的质疑之上。</strong>他认为，当前AI基础设施投资热潮中，大量资本开支并未对应真实的终端需求，而是通过不透明的融资结构自我循环，存在系统性高估风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，并将三星和SK海力士的资本支出扩张计划视为行业景气周期&#34;由盛转衰的开始&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另外，在维持原有空头仓位方面，Burry表示<strong>尚未平仓特斯拉空头，并以轻描淡写的口吻称该仓位&#34;自己在慢慢缩小&#34;</strong>——暗示特斯拉股价下跌已令其空头仓位的名义规模自然收缩。他同时维持对Palantir的做空，并继续持有QQQ看跌期权，表明其对整体科技板块的看空立场未有松动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从今年以来的股价表现来看，Burry的部分空头押注面临一定压力。美光年内累计涨幅接近200%，英伟达上涨约10%。不过，Palantir、特斯拉和DraftKings年内均已下跌逾三成，分别录得约34%、33%和34%的跌幅，与Burry的看空方向基本吻合。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839c9c1dcef2800f837df02e079a4f9c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1212\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在做空AI的同时，Burry也在积极布局多头仓位，且方向集中于体育博彩领域。他以100.72美元买入&#34;相当数量&#34;的Flutter Entertainment，并以23.07美元买入DraftKings。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在文章中写道：&#34;将FLUT和DKNG合并来看，作为对预测市场的一次押注，两者合计构成我较大的仓位之一。&#34;此外，他还增持了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOH\">Molina Healthcare</a>，买入价格为197.02美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一多头布局与其空头逻辑形成鲜明对比——在看空AI基础设施泡沫的同时，Burry将资金转向与科技热潮相关性较低的消费及医疗领域，折射出其对当前市场结构的整体判断。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“大空头”继续狙击AI！Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位，维持做空特斯拉、Palantir</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大空头”继续狙击AI！Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位，维持做空特斯拉、Palantir\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-26 14:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;大空头&#34;Michael Burry再度加码做空美光等AI相关股票，并维持对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>的空头押注，其对半导体板块的看空逻辑正受到市场越来越多的关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry于当地时间7月25日在Substack发文披露最新持仓动向，显示他<strong>进一步扩大了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位，同时新增做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88feab16c1c637e5f7c39eb4fb752f9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"368\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他明确表示，<strong>英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户，而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动，并援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告加以佐证。</strong>与此同时，他<strong>对特斯拉和Palantir的空头仓位保持不变，并继续持有纳斯达克100 ETF的看跌期权。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次披露正值半导体板块承压之际。华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry此前曾表示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>公布的韩国半导体资本支出计划，是半导体行业景气周期&#34;由盛转衰的开始&#34;，并预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，认为AI基础设施相关公司估值已严重偏高。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">扩大半导体空头：美光、英伟达、SOXX齐齐加码</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在Substack文章中披露，他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技，以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位，并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。他表示，<strong>SOXX空头仓位与其持有的看跌期权合并计算，已构成其投资组合中的一个大型仓位。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在英伟达的做空逻辑上，Burry措辞直接。他表示，<strong>目前英伟达大量需求并非由真实终端客户驱动，相关需求的融资安排游离于资产负债表之外且未予披露，未来收入&#34;大部分通过循环安排融资&#34;</strong>。他援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告作为支撑依据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，这并非Burry首次出手做空美光。华尔街见闻文章写道，Burry此前曾在1051.87美元的价位做空美光，并表示&#34;对这类情形的最终结局有相当清晰的了解&#34;，同时还增加了另外五个做空仓位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Burry对AI相关板块的看空，建立在对行业需求真实性的质疑之上。</strong>他认为，当前AI基础设施投资热潮中，大量资本开支并未对应真实的终端需求，而是通过不透明的融资结构自我循环，存在系统性高估风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，并将三星和SK海力士的资本支出扩张计划视为行业景气周期&#34;由盛转衰的开始&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另外，在维持原有空头仓位方面，Burry表示<strong>尚未平仓特斯拉空头，并以轻描淡写的口吻称该仓位&#34;自己在慢慢缩小&#34;</strong>——暗示特斯拉股价下跌已令其空头仓位的名义规模自然收缩。他同时维持对Palantir的做空，并继续持有QQQ看跌期权，表明其对整体科技板块的看空立场未有松动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从今年以来的股价表现来看，Burry的部分空头押注面临一定压力。美光年内累计涨幅接近200%，英伟达上涨约10%。不过，Palantir、特斯拉和DraftKings年内均已下跌逾三成，分别录得约34%、33%和34%的跌幅，与Burry的看空方向基本吻合。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839c9c1dcef2800f837df02e079a4f9c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1212\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在做空AI的同时，Burry也在积极布局多头仓位，且方向集中于体育博彩领域。他以100.72美元买入&#34;相当数量&#34;的Flutter Entertainment，并以23.07美元买入DraftKings。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在文章中写道：&#34;将FLUT和DKNG合并来看，作为对预测市场的一次押注，两者合计构成我较大的仓位之一。&#34;此外，他还增持了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOH\">Molina Healthcare</a>，买入价格为197.02美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一多头布局与其空头逻辑形成鲜明对比——在看空AI基础设施泡沫的同时，Burry将资金转向与科技热潮相关性较低的消费及医疗领域，折射出其对当前市场结构的整体判断。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623fa826a3925ac5d5f18b0f16bb748d","relate_stocks":{"IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU2463028550.USD":"AB SICAV I AMERICAN MULTI-ASSET PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ81514606.USD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc USD","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","PLT":"Defiance Leveraged Long Plus Income PLTR ETF","PLTA":"ProShares Ultra PLTR ETF","PLTD":"1倍做空PLTR ETF-Direxion","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","PLTG":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","EFIV":"SPDR S&P 500 ESG ETF","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2247934214.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) 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ETF的看跌期权。此次披露正值半导体板块承压之际。华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry此前曾表示，三星和SK海力士公布的韩国半导体资本支出计划，是半导体行业景气周期\"由盛转衰的开始\"，并预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，认为AI基础设施相关公司估值已严重偏高。扩大半导体空头：美光、英伟达、SOXX齐齐加码Burry在Substack文章中披露，他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技，以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位，并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。他表示，SOXX空头仓位与其持有的看跌期权合并计算，已构成其投资组合中的一个大型仓位。在英伟达的做空逻辑上，Burry措辞直接。他表示，目前英伟达大量需求并非由真实终端客户驱动，相关需求的融资安排游离于资产负债表之外且未予披露，未来收入\"大部分通过循环安排融资\"。他援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告作为支撑依据。值得注意的是，这并非Burry首次出手做空美光。华尔街见闻文章写道，Burry此前曾在1051.87美元的价位做空美光，并表示\"对这类情形的最终结局有相当清晰的了解\"，同时还增加了另外五个做空仓位。Burry对AI相关板块的看空，建立在对行业需求真实性的质疑之上。他认为，当前AI基础设施投资热潮中，大量资本开支并未对应真实的终端需求，而是通过不透明的融资结构自我循环，存在系统性高估风险。华尔街见闻文章此前写道，Burry预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调，并将三星和SK海力士的资本支出扩张计划视为行业景气周期\"由盛转衰的开始\"。另外，在维持原有空头仓位方面，Burry表示尚未平仓特斯拉空头，并以轻描淡写的口吻称该仓位\"自己在慢慢缩小\"——暗示特斯拉股价下跌已令其空头仓位的名义规模自然收缩。他同时维持对Palantir的做空，并继续持有QQQ看跌期权，表明其对整体科技板块的看空立场未有松动。从今年以来的股价表现来看，Burry的部分空头押注面临一定压力。美光年内累计涨幅接近200%，英伟达上涨约10%。不过，Palantir、特斯拉和DraftKings年内均已下跌逾三成，分别录得约34%、33%和34%的跌幅，与Burry的看空方向基本吻合。在做空AI的同时，Burry也在积极布局多头仓位，且方向集中于体育博彩领域。他以100.72美元买入\"相当数量\"的Flutter Entertainment，并以23.07美元买入DraftKings。Burry在文章中写道：\"将FLUT和DKNG合并来看，作为对预测市场的一次押注，两者合计构成我较大的仓位之一。\"此外，他还增持了Molina Healthcare，买入价格为197.02美元。这一多头布局与其空头逻辑形成鲜明对比——在看空AI基础设施泡沫的同时，Burry将资金转向与科技热潮相关性较低的消费及医疗领域，折射出其对当前市场结构的整体判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDB":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"EYES":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"DRAY":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"FDRV":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"09766":0.6,"PLTR":1.87,"TSLY":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"SMOG":0.6,"PLTD":0.6,"07788":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"USD":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"WANT":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"MU":1.94,"BETZ":0.6,"09366":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"SHLD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"DKNG":1.84,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"LIT":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"TSLA":1.89,"HBMX":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"07388":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"METV":0.6,"IDRV":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"DKUP":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"VT":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"ODDS":0.6,"DKNX":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"07366":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"GUNZ":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"NVDA":1.95,"ANV":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"PLT":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"WATS":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"SMH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582981917244930","authorId":"3582981917244930","name":"月蚀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868da45e20d09bfaa326a775f43a6a7f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582981917244930","idStr":"3582981917244930"},"content":"可怜虫，ai的新生一定会踩着这些硬件股的尸体","text":"可怜虫，ai的新生一定会踩着这些硬件股的尸体","html":"可怜虫，ai的新生一定会踩着这些硬件股的尸体"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590703071089824,"gmtCreate":1785216221998,"gmtModify":1785216223953,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"邓文 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05:31","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"英伟达循环融资引发忧虑：CDS价差创纪录飙升，股价大跌5%，苹果重夺市值第一","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2654025997","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"$英伟达$深陷逾7500亿美元AI基础设施交易谈判的消息，在信用衍生品市场引发强烈震动，其违约保护成本单日涨幅创下历史纪录。与此同时，$苹果$因克制的资本支出策略获得市场青睐，市值重夺全球上市公司第一宝座。受此影响，英伟达股价周一收跌5%。苹果股价今年上涨24%，周一收涨1.2%，市值约达4.93万亿美元，超越英伟达的4.78万亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达卷入7500亿美元AI基础设施投资，其信用违约互换价差单日飙升14个基点创历史纪录。受此影响，英伟达股价周一收跌5%。苹果凭借克制的资本支出在当下的市场环境中股价表现良好，年内累计上涨24%，周一收涨1.2%，市值约达4.93万亿美元，超越英伟达的4.78万亿美元。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达深陷逾7500亿美元AI基础设施交易谈判的消息，在信用衍生品市场引发强烈震动，其违约保护成本单日涨幅创下历史纪录。与此同时，苹果因克制的资本支出策略获得市场青睐，市值重夺全球上市公司第一宝座。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据ICE Data Services数据，<strong>英伟达五年期信用违约互换（CDS）价差单日最高飙升14个基点至82个基点</strong>，为该合约自去年11月活跃交易以来最大盘中涨幅。受此影响，英伟达股价周一收跌5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9438c3e479f8becdb2c617279f5975\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果股价今年上涨24%，周一收涨1.2%，市值约达4.93万亿美元，超越英伟达的4.78万亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8737c539ad5bade5b1f3d2d65ec16d\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这两家公司的分化折射出市场对AI资本支出路径的深层分歧——重押AI基础设施的大手笔投入究竟是护城河，还是潜在的信用隐患，投资者正重新审视。</p><h2 id=\"52c76cb6\">巨额担保交易触发信用市场警觉</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达与韩国SK集团于上周五晚间宣布达成一项逾5000亿美元的AI合作协议，同时正与OpenAI就一笔规模高达2500亿美元的担保协议展开谈判，以协助后者租用由软银旗下子公司在俄亥俄州开发的数据中心项目。消息一经披露，引发市场广泛关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上述交易规模之大，令债务市场承压。Coherence Credit Strategies首席投资官Sal Naro表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;构建AI基础设施所需的资本开支规模庞大，债务市场正遭到供给冲击。市场担忧的是，不透明的财务结构、表外交易和关联公司之间的复杂关系可能催生&#39;金融炼金术&#39;，最终导致信用评级下调。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此类大规模融资通常需要投资级信用评级作为支撑，而OpenAI、Anthropic PBC等AI企业目前正处于大规模烧钱扩张阶段，难以独立获得此类评级。这意味着英伟达等大型科技公司的背书将成为相关债务获得高评级的关键。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">苹果&#34;轻资产&#34;AI路径获市场重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果年初至今股价累计上涨逾22%，在&#34;科技七巨头&#34;中领跑。自由资本市场首席市场策略师Jay Woods指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;苹果曾因AI投入不足而遭受批评，但现在来看，它成功规避了资本支出陷阱。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果资本支出在过去三个季度持续下降，与同行形成鲜明对比。Alphabet上周上调全年资本支出指引以支持AI基础设施建设，特斯拉亦增加支出以推进Robotaxi和机器人业务，两家公司股价均在财报发布后下跌——Alphabet年初至今累计涨幅约3%，特斯拉则重挫近30%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场目前正等待微软、亚马逊和Meta本周相继披露财报，三家公司均预计将宣布进一步加大AI相关支出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果将于周四美股收盘后发布业绩，投资者将重点关注其&#34;Apple Intelligence&#34;功能的落地进展，以及在不显著增加资本支出或压缩运营利润率的前提下实现AI规模化的可行性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得关注的是，周四还将是苹果CEO蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）卸任前的最后一次财报电话会议。他将于9月1日正式卸任，转任执行董事长，由苹果硬件工程老将John Ternus接任CEO一职。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达循环融资引发忧虑：CDS价差创纪录飙升，股价大跌5%，苹果重夺市值第一\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-28 05:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达卷入7500亿美元AI基础设施投资，其信用违约互换价差单日飙升14个基点创历史纪录。受此影响，英伟达股价周一收跌5%。苹果凭借克制的资本支出在当下的市场环境中股价表现良好，年内累计上涨24%，周一收涨1.2%，市值约达4.93万亿美元，超越英伟达的4.78万亿美元。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达深陷逾7500亿美元AI基础设施交易谈判的消息，在信用衍生品市场引发强烈震动，其违约保护成本单日涨幅创下历史纪录。与此同时，苹果因克制的资本支出策略获得市场青睐，市值重夺全球上市公司第一宝座。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据ICE Data Services数据，<strong>英伟达五年期信用违约互换（CDS）价差单日最高飙升14个基点至82个基点</strong>，为该合约自去年11月活跃交易以来最大盘中涨幅。受此影响，英伟达股价周一收跌5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9438c3e479f8becdb2c617279f5975\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果股价今年上涨24%，周一收涨1.2%，市值约达4.93万亿美元，超越英伟达的4.78万亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8737c539ad5bade5b1f3d2d65ec16d\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这两家公司的分化折射出市场对AI资本支出路径的深层分歧——重押AI基础设施的大手笔投入究竟是护城河，还是潜在的信用隐患，投资者正重新审视。</p><h2 id=\"52c76cb6\">巨额担保交易触发信用市场警觉</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达与韩国SK集团于上周五晚间宣布达成一项逾5000亿美元的AI合作协议，同时正与OpenAI就一笔规模高达2500亿美元的担保协议展开谈判，以协助后者租用由软银旗下子公司在俄亥俄州开发的数据中心项目。消息一经披露，引发市场广泛关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上述交易规模之大，令债务市场承压。Coherence Credit Strategies首席投资官Sal Naro表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;构建AI基础设施所需的资本开支规模庞大，债务市场正遭到供给冲击。市场担忧的是，不透明的财务结构、表外交易和关联公司之间的复杂关系可能催生&#39;金融炼金术&#39;，最终导致信用评级下调。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此类大规模融资通常需要投资级信用评级作为支撑，而OpenAI、Anthropic PBC等AI企业目前正处于大规模烧钱扩张阶段，难以独立获得此类评级。这意味着英伟达等大型科技公司的背书将成为相关债务获得高评级的关键。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">苹果&#34;轻资产&#34;AI路径获市场重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果年初至今股价累计上涨逾22%，在&#34;科技七巨头&#34;中领跑。自由资本市场首席市场策略师Jay Woods指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;苹果曾因AI投入不足而遭受批评，但现在来看，它成功规避了资本支出陷阱。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果资本支出在过去三个季度持续下降，与同行形成鲜明对比。Alphabet上周上调全年资本支出指引以支持AI基础设施建设，特斯拉亦增加支出以推进Robotaxi和机器人业务，两家公司股价均在财报发布后下跌——Alphabet年初至今累计涨幅约3%，特斯拉则重挫近30%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场目前正等待微软、亚马逊和Meta本周相继披露财报，三家公司均预计将宣布进一步加大AI相关支出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果将于周四美股收盘后发布业绩，投资者将重点关注其&#34;Apple Intelligence&#34;功能的落地进展，以及在不显著增加资本支出或压缩运营利润率的前提下实现AI规模化的可行性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得关注的是，周四还将是苹果CEO蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）卸任前的最后一次财报电话会议。他将于9月1日正式卸任，转任执行董事长，由苹果硬件工程老将John Ternus接任CEO一职。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042bf15c0077d603424f111d4bf49f8c","relate_stocks":{"IBHA":"iShares iBonds 2021 Term High Yield and Income ETF","APCB":"ACTIVEPASSIVE CORE BOND 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Infrastructure ETF","BRHY":"iShares High Yield Active ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778066","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2654025997","content_text":"英伟达卷入7500亿美元AI基础设施投资，其信用违约互换价差单日飙升14个基点创历史纪录。受此影响，英伟达股价周一收跌5%。苹果凭借克制的资本支出在当下的市场环境中股价表现良好，年内累计上涨24%，周一收涨1.2%，市值约达4.93万亿美元，超越英伟达的4.78万亿美元。英伟达深陷逾7500亿美元AI基础设施交易谈判的消息，在信用衍生品市场引发强烈震动，其违约保护成本单日涨幅创下历史纪录。与此同时，苹果因克制的资本支出策略获得市场青睐，市值重夺全球上市公司第一宝座。据ICE Data Services数据，英伟达五年期信用违约互换（CDS）价差单日最高飙升14个基点至82个基点，为该合约自去年11月活跃交易以来最大盘中涨幅。受此影响，英伟达股价周一收跌5%。苹果股价今年上涨24%，周一收涨1.2%，市值约达4.93万亿美元，超越英伟达的4.78万亿美元。这两家公司的分化折射出市场对AI资本支出路径的深层分歧——重押AI基础设施的大手笔投入究竟是护城河，还是潜在的信用隐患，投资者正重新审视。巨额担保交易触发信用市场警觉英伟达与韩国SK集团于上周五晚间宣布达成一项逾5000亿美元的AI合作协议，同时正与OpenAI就一笔规模高达2500亿美元的担保协议展开谈判，以协助后者租用由软银旗下子公司在俄亥俄州开发的数据中心项目。消息一经披露，引发市场广泛关注。上述交易规模之大，令债务市场承压。Coherence Credit Strategies首席投资官Sal Naro表示：\"构建AI基础设施所需的资本开支规模庞大，债务市场正遭到供给冲击。市场担忧的是，不透明的财务结构、表外交易和关联公司之间的复杂关系可能催生'金融炼金术'，最终导致信用评级下调。\"此类大规模融资通常需要投资级信用评级作为支撑，而OpenAI、Anthropic PBC等AI企业目前正处于大规模烧钱扩张阶段，难以独立获得此类评级。这意味着英伟达等大型科技公司的背书将成为相关债务获得高评级的关键。苹果\"轻资产\"AI路径获市场重估苹果年初至今股价累计上涨逾22%，在\"科技七巨头\"中领跑。自由资本市场首席市场策略师Jay Woods指出：\"苹果曾因AI投入不足而遭受批评，但现在来看，它成功规避了资本支出陷阱。\"苹果资本支出在过去三个季度持续下降，与同行形成鲜明对比。Alphabet上周上调全年资本支出指引以支持AI基础设施建设，特斯拉亦增加支出以推进Robotaxi和机器人业务，两家公司股价均在财报发布后下跌——Alphabet年初至今累计涨幅约3%，特斯拉则重挫近30%。市场目前正等待微软、亚马逊和Meta本周相继披露财报，三家公司均预计将宣布进一步加大AI相关支出。苹果将于周四美股收盘后发布业绩，投资者将重点关注其\"Apple Intelligence\"功能的落地进展，以及在不显著增加资本支出或压缩运营利润率的前提下实现AI规模化的可行性。值得关注的是，周四还将是苹果CEO蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）卸任前的最后一次财报电话会议。他将于9月1日正式卸任，转任执行董事长，由苹果硬件工程老将John 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