tedcui
08-14 15:31
加息也就是挠痒痒,效果不大
[开心]
报道:日本央行最早9月加息,后续加息节奏或提速
华尔街见闻
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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n报道:日本央行最早9月加息,后续加息节奏或提速\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-14 14:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>日本央行正面临2024年退出超宽松政策以来最紧迫的加息压力。</p>\n<p>据路透社8月14日报道,三位熟悉日本央行(BOJ)内部讨论的知情人士透露,该行最早将于9月加息,并正考虑此后加快紧缩节奏,超越目前每年约两次的步伐。</p>\n<p>一位知情人士直言:“提前加息已进入视野。”另一位知情人士则表示:“日本央行也可能加快加息节奏。”</p>\n<p>这一信号意味着,9月17-18日的政策会议将成为关键节点。目前市场已将9月加息概率定价至近80%。</p>\n<h2>从“每年两次”到“每季度一次”</h2>\n<p>自2024年退出长达十年的超宽松刺激政策以来,日本央行的加息节奏约为每年两次。今年6月,该行将利率上调至1%,创31年新高。</p>\n<p>若9月如期加息,路透社援引部分分析师认为,12月再度加息的空间将随之打开。这将使全年加息次数达到三次,市场对“每季度加息一次”的预期也将随之强化。</p>\n<p>日美上月联合干预日元汇率,以及美国财政部长贝森特的施压,进一步将市场目光聚焦于日本央行如何回应日元持续疲软。加息本身也是支撑日元的政策工具之一——利率走高通常会吸引资本回流,对汇率形成支撑。</p>\n<h2>通胀压力从多个方向同时袭来</h2>\n<p>日本央行此番加速紧缩的底层逻辑,是通胀风险正从多个维度同步升温。</p>\n<p><strong>日元贬值。</strong> 日元上月触及40年低点,尽管日美随后罕见联合干预,贬值趋势仍未逆转。日元走弱直接推高进口成本,并向广泛消费品价格传导。</p>\n<p><strong>批发价格高企。</strong> 7月日本年度批发通胀维持在三年高位,意味着企业端的成本压力尚未充分传导至消费端——一旦企业开始转嫁成本,消费者价格将进一步上行。</p>\n<p><strong>通胀预期抬升。</strong> 调查显示,家庭、企业和经济学家的通胀预期均已接近或超过2%。这是央行最为警惕的信号之一——预期一旦脱锚,控制通胀的难度将成倍上升。</p>\n<p><strong>外部冲击叠加。</strong> 中东冲突持续扰动能源和大宗商品价格,全球AI需求旺盛则推高相关设备和能源需求,两者均构成额外的输入性通胀压力。</p>\n<h2>央行内部:不能等太久</h2>\n<p>日本央行7月维持利率不变,但同时发出了迄今最强烈的提前加息信号——警告通胀压力持续累积,可能推动核心通胀突破2%目标。</p>\n<p>7月会议的意见摘要显示,部分委员明确呼吁加快加息节奏,以避免在应对通胀上“落后于曲线”——这是央行政策圈的惯用说法,意指若行动迟缓,事后需要更大幅度的紧缩来补救。</p>\n<p>行长植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)在7月会后记者会上表示,将在主持未来会议时充分考虑委员会对通胀风险日益增长的警惕,并指出若金融条件被认定过于宽松,央行可能加快加息步伐。</p>\n<p>一位第三知情人士的表述更为直接:“鉴于通胀风险上升,日本央行可能不想在加息问题上等待太久。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d4c677f895d35cb5ddef132618414af","relate_stocks":{"NQDXJP":"AlphaDEX日本指数","PRXI":"Praxis Impact International ETF","IDEC":"INNOVATOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED POWER BUFFER ETF - DECEMBER","SCZ":"iShares MSCI EAFE Small Cap Inde","SPDW":"SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF","DFJ":"日本小型股股利指数ETF-WisdomTree","HOLA":"JPMorgan International Hedged Equity Laddered Overlay ETF","TACN":"T. 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