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2021-12-01
Lets see. In times of uncertainty there are many change of mind!
Hawkish Powell Is a Force Markets Haven’t Faced in Three Years<blockquote>鹰派鲍威尔是市场三年来从未面临过的力量</blockquote>
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In times of uncertainty there are many change of mind!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603050324","repostId":1125420473,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125420473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638343090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125420473?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 15:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hawkish Powell Is a Force Markets Haven’t Faced in Three Years<blockquote>鹰派鲍威尔是市场三年来从未面临过的力量</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125420473","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Fed Chair shows openness to faster tapering amid inflation\nAlmost disregarding how the markets may t","content":"<p><ul> <li>Fed Chair shows openness to faster tapering amid inflation</li> <li>Almost disregarding how the markets may take shift: Gokhman</li> </ul> Jerome Powell’s appetite for a faster tapering of Federal Reserve stimulus is casting him in a role financial markets haven’t seen since 2018: hawk.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储主席对通胀背景下加快缩减规模持开放态度</li><li>几乎不考虑市场可能如何转变：Gokhman</li></ul>杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）对美联储更快缩减刺激措施的兴趣使他扮演了金融市场自2018年以来从未见过的角色：鹰派。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks slid, short-term interest rates rose and measures of equity volatility surged Tuesday after the central bank chairman warned that elevated inflation could justify ending asset purchases sooner than planned. Buffeted also by anxiety around the coronavirus, the S&P 500 just endured its worst stretch of turbulence in more than a year.</p><p><blockquote>周二，在央行主席警告称通胀上升可能证明提前结束资产购买是合理的后，股市下跌，短期利率上升，股市波动性指标飙升。同样受到冠状病毒焦虑的打击，标普500刚刚经历了一年多来最严重的动荡。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d5bd17de914fbbf22bb4ea49cf81a6\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> For investors, an urgent question becomes whether Tuesday’s congressional testimony was a watershed moment for the monetary policies that have helped the S&P 500 effectively to double since Christmas 2018. That’s when Powell’s last big pivot occurred -- the dismantling of interest-rate hikes that made the fourth quarter of that year one of the worst for equities ever.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，一个紧迫的问题是，周二的国会证词是否是货币政策的分水岭，自2018年圣诞节以来，货币政策有效地帮助标普500翻了一番。就在那时，鲍威尔发生了最后一次重大转变——加息的取消，这使得当年第四季度成为股市有史以来最糟糕的季度之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88fc7a181d9339e7ea64f3ed6864ca31\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jerome Powell on Nov. 30.Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杰罗姆·鲍威尔11月30日。摄影师：Al Drago/彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “Not only is he speaking in a more hawkish tone, but he’s dropping major policy implications almost without regard to how the markets may take them,” said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer at AlphaTrAI. “All of the predictability he’s previously tried to cultivate in terms of taper and liftoff scheduling is in question.”</p><p><blockquote>AlphaTrAI首席投资官马克斯·戈克曼(Max Gokhman)表示：“他不仅以更加鹰派的语气发表讲话，而且几乎没有考虑市场可能如何看待这些政策影响。”“他之前试图在缩减和起飞时间安排方面培养的所有可预测性都受到了质疑。”</blockquote></p><p> Missing from Powell’s script Tuesday was the sense of deliberation that has defined his message ever since transforming from hawk to dove at the end of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔周二的剧本中缺少的是自2018年底从鹰派转变为鸽派以来定义他信息的深思熟虑感。</blockquote></p><p> While it remains to be seen how radical a shift is at play now, the change in tone was unmistakable in markets that have heard virtually nothing but encouraging words from the Fed since 2018. Investors now find themselves potentially at the mercy of economic reports that have painted an increasingly bleak picture of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在的转变有多彻底还有待观察，但自2018年以来，市场除了令人鼓舞的言论外，几乎什么也没听到，市场的语气变化是明确无误的。投资者现在发现自己可能会受到经济报告的摆布，这些报告描绘了日益黯淡的通胀前景。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets will be very reactive to the data, probably over-reactive,” said Michael Kantrowitz, head of portfolio strategy at Cornerstone Macro. “There is a lot of fog we need to get through.”</p><p><blockquote>Cornerstone Macro投资组合策略主管Michael Kantrowitz表示：“市场将对数据做出非常反应，可能反应过度。”“我们需要穿过很多雾。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5124bfa00531c3d11bda682f5a37112\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Since the start of his tenure as Fed chair in February 2018, Powell has gone out of his way to redefine the way the central bank looks at both its employment and inflation mandates, letting price increases accelerate past prior targets in the interest of getting more of the population back to work and at higher-paying jobs. At virtually every turn, markets cheered his dovishness, extending the Treasuries bull run and powering heady returns in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>自2018年2月开始担任美联储主席以来，鲍威尔不遗余力地重新定义了央行看待就业和通胀任务的方式，让物价上涨加速超过之前的目标，以让更多人重返工作岗位并从事高薪工作。几乎每一次，市场都为他的鸽派立场欢呼，延长了美国国债的牛市并推动了股市的高回报。</blockquote></p><p> Now, Powell is suggesting the inflation target has been met. If the job recovery continues, he’s effectively prepared to usher in higher interest rates, according to Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro.</p><p><blockquote>现在，鲍威尔暗示通胀目标已经实现。Renaissance Macro美国经济主管尼尔·杜塔(Neil Dutta)表示，如果就业复苏持续，他实际上已经准备好迎接更高的利率。</blockquote></p><p> Powell “is opening the door to an earlier rate hike by signaling a sooner end to taper,” Dutta said. “The risk to markets would be if the Fed started tightening well before the employment goals were achieved. That is not happening right now. Between now and the time the tapering is done, employment will continue accelerating.”</p><p><blockquote>杜塔表示，鲍威尔“通过发出提前结束缩减规模的信号，为提前加息打开了大门”。“市场面临的风险是，如果美联储在就业目标实现之前就开始收紧政策。现在这种情况不会发生。从现在到缩减规模完成，就业将继续加速。”</blockquote></p><p> Not that the Powell Fed has turned overtly hawkish -- yet. Even if asset purchases are wound down, each still represents additional fuel for the economy. And Powell hasn’t yet set a schedule for raising rates, though an earlier taper could bring hikes sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔美联储还没有公开变得鹰派。即使资产购买减少，每一项资产购买仍然为经济提供了额外的燃料。鲍威尔尚未制定加息时间表，尽管提前缩减可能会比预期更早加息。</blockquote></p><p> Higher rates haven’t always snuffed out bull markets. The S&P 500 rose an average 5.3% in the 12 months following the first increase in 17 tightenings since 1946, according to a Ned Davis Research study on market returns and monetary policy. The pace of tightening, however, makes a stark difference: The equity benchmark fell 2.7% on average during faster rate hikes while rising 11% during slow ones.</p><p><blockquote>较高的利率并不总是扼杀牛市。根据Ned Davis对市场回报和货币政策的研究，自1946年以来首次增加17次紧缩政策后，标普500在12个月内平均上涨了5.3%。然而，紧缩的步伐却产生了明显的差异：在快速加息期间，股市基准平均下跌2.7%，而在缓慢加息期间则上涨11%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b680b0eac04bbedb86fd3a24f8dd481\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Credit: Ned Davis Research Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：内德·戴维斯研究来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To some, Powell is simply catching up with the reality that emergency measures are no longer needed amid a booming economy. Critics including former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has urged the Fed to tap the brakes on economic stimulus sooner than planned to avoid inflation getting out of hand.</p><p><blockquote>对一些人来说，鲍威尔只是在赶上一个现实，即在经济蓬勃发展的情况下，不再需要采取紧急措施。包括美国前财政部长拉里·萨默斯在内的批评人士敦促美联储比计划更早地踩下经济刺激的刹车，以避免通胀失控。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are also aware of Powell’s history of giving in to markets when their verdict is severe. In October 2018, he famously said that despite several increases, policy rates remained “a long way” from neutral and that financial conditions were “accommodative.” Three months later, with the S&P 500 points away from a 20% plunge, he reversed course, saying the central bank was flexible and that officials were “listening carefully” to the financial markets. He repeated thedelicate danceagain in the summer of 2019, when comments about a mid-cycle adjustment sent stocks tanking.</p><p><blockquote>投资者也知道鲍威尔在做出严厉裁决时会向市场屈服的历史。2018年10月，他曾说过一句名言，尽管多次加息，但政策利率距离中性仍“还有很长的路要走”，金融状况“宽松”。三个月后，随着标普500距离暴跌20%还远，他改变了方针，称央行很灵活，官员们正在“仔细倾听”金融市场的声音。2019年夏天，他再次重复了这种微妙的舞蹈，当时有关中期周期调整的言论导致股市暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> “The market was spooked and within a few days, he walked it back. He still has that option,” Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management, said by phone. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he does the same thing if the market gets too volatile for him.”</p><p><blockquote>Penn Mutual Asset Management的投资组合经理任志伟在电话中表示：“市场受到了惊吓，几天之内，他就走了回来。他仍然有这个选择。”“如果市场对他来说过于波动，如果他做同样的事情，我不会感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p> Watching Tuesday’s testimony, Gokhman at AlphaTrAI was reminded of the 1980s comedy horror “Gremlins” in which a cute pet morphs into a monster wreaking havoc on a small town.</p><p><blockquote>看着周二的证词，AlphaTrAI的Gokhman想起了20世纪80年代的恐怖喜剧《Gremlins》，其中一只可爱的宠物变成了一个怪物，在一个小镇上肆虐。</blockquote></p><p> “Powell started out as this fuzzy character here to cuddle investors -- but now it looks like somebody fed him after midnight,” he said. “Maybe getting renominated for a Fed chair is like pouring water on the Gremlin,” said Gokhman, referencing a plotline in the movie that allows the Gremlins to replicate out of control.</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔一开始是一个拥抱投资者的模糊角色，但现在看起来有人在午夜后喂了他，”他说。“也许重新获得美联储主席提名就像向小精灵泼水一样，”戈克曼说，他指的是电影中让小精灵失控复制的情节。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHawkish Powell Is a Force Markets Haven’t Faced in Three Years<blockquote>鹰派鲍威尔是市场三年来从未面临过的力量</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-01 15:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul> <li>Fed Chair shows openness to faster tapering amid inflation</li> <li>Almost disregarding how the markets may take shift: Gokhman</li> </ul> Jerome Powell’s appetite for a faster tapering of Federal Reserve stimulus is casting him in a role financial markets haven’t seen since 2018: hawk.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储主席对通胀背景下加快缩减规模持开放态度</li><li>几乎不考虑市场可能如何转变：Gokhman</li></ul>杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）对美联储更快缩减刺激措施的兴趣使他扮演了金融市场自2018年以来从未见过的角色：鹰派。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks slid, short-term interest rates rose and measures of equity volatility surged Tuesday after the central bank chairman warned that elevated inflation could justify ending asset purchases sooner than planned. Buffeted also by anxiety around the coronavirus, the S&P 500 just endured its worst stretch of turbulence in more than a year.</p><p><blockquote>周二，在央行主席警告称通胀上升可能证明提前结束资产购买是合理的后，股市下跌，短期利率上升，股市波动性指标飙升。同样受到冠状病毒焦虑的打击，标普500刚刚经历了一年多来最严重的动荡。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d5bd17de914fbbf22bb4ea49cf81a6\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> For investors, an urgent question becomes whether Tuesday’s congressional testimony was a watershed moment for the monetary policies that have helped the S&P 500 effectively to double since Christmas 2018. That’s when Powell’s last big pivot occurred -- the dismantling of interest-rate hikes that made the fourth quarter of that year one of the worst for equities ever.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，一个紧迫的问题是，周二的国会证词是否是货币政策的分水岭，自2018年圣诞节以来，货币政策有效地帮助标普500翻了一番。就在那时，鲍威尔发生了最后一次重大转变——加息的取消，这使得当年第四季度成为股市有史以来最糟糕的季度之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88fc7a181d9339e7ea64f3ed6864ca31\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jerome Powell on Nov. 30.Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杰罗姆·鲍威尔11月30日。摄影师：Al Drago/彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “Not only is he speaking in a more hawkish tone, but he’s dropping major policy implications almost without regard to how the markets may take them,” said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer at AlphaTrAI. “All of the predictability he’s previously tried to cultivate in terms of taper and liftoff scheduling is in question.”</p><p><blockquote>AlphaTrAI首席投资官马克斯·戈克曼(Max Gokhman)表示：“他不仅以更加鹰派的语气发表讲话，而且几乎没有考虑市场可能如何看待这些政策影响。”“他之前试图在缩减和起飞时间安排方面培养的所有可预测性都受到了质疑。”</blockquote></p><p> Missing from Powell’s script Tuesday was the sense of deliberation that has defined his message ever since transforming from hawk to dove at the end of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔周二的剧本中缺少的是自2018年底从鹰派转变为鸽派以来定义他信息的深思熟虑感。</blockquote></p><p> While it remains to be seen how radical a shift is at play now, the change in tone was unmistakable in markets that have heard virtually nothing but encouraging words from the Fed since 2018. Investors now find themselves potentially at the mercy of economic reports that have painted an increasingly bleak picture of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在的转变有多彻底还有待观察，但自2018年以来，市场除了令人鼓舞的言论外，几乎什么也没听到，市场的语气变化是明确无误的。投资者现在发现自己可能会受到经济报告的摆布，这些报告描绘了日益黯淡的通胀前景。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets will be very reactive to the data, probably over-reactive,” said Michael Kantrowitz, head of portfolio strategy at Cornerstone Macro. “There is a lot of fog we need to get through.”</p><p><blockquote>Cornerstone Macro投资组合策略主管Michael Kantrowitz表示：“市场将对数据做出非常反应，可能反应过度。”“我们需要穿过很多雾。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5124bfa00531c3d11bda682f5a37112\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Since the start of his tenure as Fed chair in February 2018, Powell has gone out of his way to redefine the way the central bank looks at both its employment and inflation mandates, letting price increases accelerate past prior targets in the interest of getting more of the population back to work and at higher-paying jobs. At virtually every turn, markets cheered his dovishness, extending the Treasuries bull run and powering heady returns in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>自2018年2月开始担任美联储主席以来，鲍威尔不遗余力地重新定义了央行看待就业和通胀任务的方式，让物价上涨加速超过之前的目标，以让更多人重返工作岗位并从事高薪工作。几乎每一次，市场都为他的鸽派立场欢呼，延长了美国国债的牛市并推动了股市的高回报。</blockquote></p><p> Now, Powell is suggesting the inflation target has been met. If the job recovery continues, he’s effectively prepared to usher in higher interest rates, according to Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro.</p><p><blockquote>现在，鲍威尔暗示通胀目标已经实现。Renaissance Macro美国经济主管尼尔·杜塔(Neil Dutta)表示，如果就业复苏持续，他实际上已经准备好迎接更高的利率。</blockquote></p><p> Powell “is opening the door to an earlier rate hike by signaling a sooner end to taper,” Dutta said. “The risk to markets would be if the Fed started tightening well before the employment goals were achieved. That is not happening right now. Between now and the time the tapering is done, employment will continue accelerating.”</p><p><blockquote>杜塔表示，鲍威尔“通过发出提前结束缩减规模的信号，为提前加息打开了大门”。“市场面临的风险是，如果美联储在就业目标实现之前就开始收紧政策。现在这种情况不会发生。从现在到缩减规模完成，就业将继续加速。”</blockquote></p><p> Not that the Powell Fed has turned overtly hawkish -- yet. Even if asset purchases are wound down, each still represents additional fuel for the economy. And Powell hasn’t yet set a schedule for raising rates, though an earlier taper could bring hikes sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔美联储还没有公开变得鹰派。即使资产购买减少，每一项资产购买仍然为经济提供了额外的燃料。鲍威尔尚未制定加息时间表，尽管提前缩减可能会比预期更早加息。</blockquote></p><p> Higher rates haven’t always snuffed out bull markets. The S&P 500 rose an average 5.3% in the 12 months following the first increase in 17 tightenings since 1946, according to a Ned Davis Research study on market returns and monetary policy. The pace of tightening, however, makes a stark difference: The equity benchmark fell 2.7% on average during faster rate hikes while rising 11% during slow ones.</p><p><blockquote>较高的利率并不总是扼杀牛市。根据Ned Davis对市场回报和货币政策的研究，自1946年以来首次增加17次紧缩政策后，标普500在12个月内平均上涨了5.3%。然而，紧缩的步伐却产生了明显的差异：在快速加息期间，股市基准平均下跌2.7%，而在缓慢加息期间则上涨11%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b680b0eac04bbedb86fd3a24f8dd481\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Credit: Ned Davis Research Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：内德·戴维斯研究来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To some, Powell is simply catching up with the reality that emergency measures are no longer needed amid a booming economy. Critics including former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has urged the Fed to tap the brakes on economic stimulus sooner than planned to avoid inflation getting out of hand.</p><p><blockquote>对一些人来说，鲍威尔只是在赶上一个现实，即在经济蓬勃发展的情况下，不再需要采取紧急措施。包括美国前财政部长拉里·萨默斯在内的批评人士敦促美联储比计划更早地踩下经济刺激的刹车，以避免通胀失控。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are also aware of Powell’s history of giving in to markets when their verdict is severe. In October 2018, he famously said that despite several increases, policy rates remained “a long way” from neutral and that financial conditions were “accommodative.” Three months later, with the S&P 500 points away from a 20% plunge, he reversed course, saying the central bank was flexible and that officials were “listening carefully” to the financial markets. He repeated thedelicate danceagain in the summer of 2019, when comments about a mid-cycle adjustment sent stocks tanking.</p><p><blockquote>投资者也知道鲍威尔在做出严厉裁决时会向市场屈服的历史。2018年10月，他曾说过一句名言，尽管多次加息，但政策利率距离中性仍“还有很长的路要走”，金融状况“宽松”。三个月后，随着标普500距离暴跌20%还远，他改变了方针，称央行很灵活，官员们正在“仔细倾听”金融市场的声音。2019年夏天，他再次重复了这种微妙的舞蹈，当时有关中期周期调整的言论导致股市暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> “The market was spooked and within a few days, he walked it back. He still has that option,” Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management, said by phone. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he does the same thing if the market gets too volatile for him.”</p><p><blockquote>Penn Mutual Asset Management的投资组合经理任志伟在电话中表示：“市场受到了惊吓，几天之内，他就走了回来。他仍然有这个选择。”“如果市场对他来说过于波动，如果他做同样的事情，我不会感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p> Watching Tuesday’s testimony, Gokhman at AlphaTrAI was reminded of the 1980s comedy horror “Gremlins” in which a cute pet morphs into a monster wreaking havoc on a small town.</p><p><blockquote>看着周二的证词，AlphaTrAI的Gokhman想起了20世纪80年代的恐怖喜剧《Gremlins》，其中一只可爱的宠物变成了一个怪物，在一个小镇上肆虐。</blockquote></p><p> “Powell started out as this fuzzy character here to cuddle investors -- but now it looks like somebody fed him after midnight,” he said. “Maybe getting renominated for a Fed chair is like pouring water on the Gremlin,” said Gokhman, referencing a plotline in the movie that allows the Gremlins to replicate out of control.</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔一开始是一个拥抱投资者的模糊角色，但现在看起来有人在午夜后喂了他，”他说。“也许重新获得美联储主席提名就像向小精灵泼水一样，”戈克曼说，他指的是电影中让小精灵失控复制的情节。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/hawkish-powell-is-a-force-markets-haven-t-faced-in-three-years\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/hawkish-powell-is-a-force-markets-haven-t-faced-in-three-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125420473","content_text":"Fed Chair shows openness to faster tapering amid inflation\nAlmost disregarding how the markets may take shift: Gokhman\n\nJerome Powell’s appetite for a faster tapering of Federal Reserve stimulus is casting him in a role financial markets haven’t seen since 2018: hawk.\nStocks slid, short-term interest rates rose and measures of equity volatility surged Tuesday after the central bank chairman warned that elevated inflation could justify ending asset purchases sooner than planned. Buffeted also by anxiety around the coronavirus, the S&P 500 just endured its worst stretch of turbulence in more than a year.\n\nFor investors, an urgent question becomes whether Tuesday’s congressional testimony was a watershed moment for the monetary policies that have helped the S&P 500 effectively to double since Christmas 2018. That’s when Powell’s last big pivot occurred -- the dismantling of interest-rate hikes that made the fourth quarter of that year one of the worst for equities ever.\nJerome Powell on Nov. 30.Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg\n“Not only is he speaking in a more hawkish tone, but he’s dropping major policy implications almost without regard to how the markets may take them,” said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer at AlphaTrAI. “All of the predictability he’s previously tried to cultivate in terms of taper and liftoff scheduling is in question.”\nMissing from Powell’s script Tuesday was the sense of deliberation that has defined his message ever since transforming from hawk to dove at the end of 2018.\nWhile it remains to be seen how radical a shift is at play now, the change in tone was unmistakable in markets that have heard virtually nothing but encouraging words from the Fed since 2018. Investors now find themselves potentially at the mercy of economic reports that have painted an increasingly bleak picture of inflation.\n“Markets will be very reactive to the data, probably over-reactive,” said Michael Kantrowitz, head of portfolio strategy at Cornerstone Macro. “There is a lot of fog we need to get through.”\n\nSince the start of his tenure as Fed chair in February 2018, Powell has gone out of his way to redefine the way the central bank looks at both its employment and inflation mandates, letting price increases accelerate past prior targets in the interest of getting more of the population back to work and at higher-paying jobs. At virtually every turn, markets cheered his dovishness, extending the Treasuries bull run and powering heady returns in stocks.\nNow, Powell is suggesting the inflation target has been met. If the job recovery continues, he’s effectively prepared to usher in higher interest rates, according to Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro.\nPowell “is opening the door to an earlier rate hike by signaling a sooner end to taper,” Dutta said. “The risk to markets would be if the Fed started tightening well before the employment goals were achieved. That is not happening right now. Between now and the time the tapering is done, employment will continue accelerating.”\nNot that the Powell Fed has turned overtly hawkish -- yet. Even if asset purchases are wound down, each still represents additional fuel for the economy. And Powell hasn’t yet set a schedule for raising rates, though an earlier taper could bring hikes sooner than expected.\nHigher rates haven’t always snuffed out bull markets. The S&P 500 rose an average 5.3% in the 12 months following the first increase in 17 tightenings since 1946, according to a Ned Davis Research study on market returns and monetary policy. The pace of tightening, however, makes a stark difference: The equity benchmark fell 2.7% on average during faster rate hikes while rising 11% during slow ones.\nCredit: Ned Davis Research Source: Bloomberg\nTo some, Powell is simply catching up with the reality that emergency measures are no longer needed amid a booming economy. Critics including former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has urged the Fed to tap the brakes on economic stimulus sooner than planned to avoid inflation getting out of hand.\nInvestors are also aware of Powell’s history of giving in to markets when their verdict is severe. In October 2018, he famously said that despite several increases, policy rates remained “a long way” from neutral and that financial conditions were “accommodative.” Three months later, with the S&P 500 points away from a 20% plunge, he reversed course, saying the central bank was flexible and that officials were “listening carefully” to the financial markets. He repeated thedelicate danceagain in the summer of 2019, when comments about a mid-cycle adjustment sent stocks tanking.\n“The market was spooked and within a few days, he walked it back. He still has that option,” Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management, said by phone. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he does the same thing if the market gets too volatile for him.”\nWatching Tuesday’s testimony, Gokhman at AlphaTrAI was reminded of the 1980s comedy horror “Gremlins” in which a cute pet morphs into a monster wreaking havoc on a small town.\n“Powell started out as this fuzzy character here to cuddle investors -- but now it looks like somebody fed him after midnight,” he said. “Maybe getting renominated for a Fed chair is like pouring water on the Gremlin,” said Gokhman, referencing a plotline in the movie that allows the Gremlins to replicate out of control.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":53,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/603050324"}
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