9月15日-黄金跌破4300，日线61.8%回调位是关键一战

三大指数周三全线收跌:道指跌0.66%报51179.87点领跌,标普500跌0.22%报7801.77点,纳指跌0.22%报27538.69点,纳指100ETF(QQQ)跌0.25%报757.73美元。压力来自债券端:10年期美债收益率盘中最高到5.366%,30年期到5.728%,双双刷新2002年以来高点。同日美联储9月纪要显示,19名决策者全部支持那次25个基点加息,但这算预防性举措还是转向更紧缩,内部分歧;多数预计年内还会加一次,没说是哪次。多头认为纪要没有比预期更鹰的东西,加息已被反复定价;空头认为长端上行并不全由加息预期推动,财政压力和美债供需失衡尚未化解,推高长债的是期限溢价——即便美联储停手,压在估值上的手也不会松。年内还剩10月和12月两次会议,你觉得加息更可能落在哪一次?

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