Smile0703
09-23
到时别又开看涨期权对冲啊，笑死人😅😅😅
大空头Burry加码做空美光、Nebius，逻辑是“内存供应激增，价格将面临下行压力”
华尔街见闻
紧盯全球金融市场，覆盖股市、外汇、债券、大宗商品等。
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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helpless
09-23
helpless
他有点发狂了 [呆住]
什么也没有了～
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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大空头Burry加码做空美光、Nebius，逻辑是“内存供应激增，价格将面临下行压力”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大空头Burry加码做空美光、Nebius，逻辑是“内存供应激增，价格将面临下行压力”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-23 11:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>因坚信内存市场供需格局正在逆转，Michael Burry大幅扩大了对半导体板块的空头押注。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露，他已进一步加码做空美光科技、AI基础设施公司Nebius、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF以及Palantir，并强调此次操作"规模相当大"。此举的直接导火索，是宏碁CEO陈俊圣公开警告称，<strong>内存库存正在积累，新增供应将逐步冲击市场，并预计价格压力将于2027年底前后显现。</strong></p>\n<p>上述消息并未阻止相关股票短线上涨——美光股价当日盘中涨逾2%，SOXX上涨约1.5%，Nebius和Palantir亦小幅走高。这意味着Burry的空头仓位在短期内承压，但他表示，宏碁CEO的表态"与我所相信的判断相吻合"。</p>\n<h2>做空逻辑：AI拉动HBM需求，但普通内存供给正在反弹</h2>\n<p>Burry的核心论点在于，此前内存市场的短缺并非需求端的结构性繁荣，而是供给端的阶段性错位。他在文中解释称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>和美光等主要厂商为满足AI数据中心对高带宽内存（HBM）的旺盛需求，将大量产能从传统DRAM转向HBM，由此造成普通内存的供应紧张。</p>\n<p><strong>然而，随着厂商逐步将普通内存产能恢复，叠加全球多个地区的新增供应陆续释放，Burry认为，"正常DRAM"的产量正在回升，供需缺口将逐步收窄，并最终对价格形成下行压力。</strong></p>\n<p>宏碁CEO陈俊圣的表态为这一逻辑提供了新的佐证。Chen在接受采访时指出，内存库存已在积累，来自多个地区的供应商正在向市场释放更多产能，这将挑战"当前短缺将持续数年"的主流预期。Burry引用该采访后写道，尽管解读这一消息"充满不确定性"，但其方向与自己的判断一致。</p>\n<h2>空头布局：从英伟达到美光，押注范围持续扩大</h2>\n<p>Burry对半导体板块的看空布局并非一蹴而就。据披露，其旗下Scion Asset Management在2025年第三季度就已建立英伟达（NVDA）和Palantir的大额看跌期权仓位，彼时该基金随后宣告关闭。</p>\n<p><strong>进入2026年，Burry以个人名义延续并扩大了这一交易。</strong>2026年6月下旬，他做空英伟达、应用材料（AMAT）及iShares半导体ETF，并将SOXX看跌期权展期至2027年3月。两天后，他将美光科技纳入做空标的，以约1051美元的价格直接建立空头仓位，并解释称选择直接做空而非买入看跌期权，是因为美光的期权权利金过于昂贵。</p>\n<p>此次加码，是Burry在上述基础上的进一步强化，标志着他对内存周期见顶的判断愈发坚定。</p>\n<h2>散户情绪与Burry判断相左</h2>\n<p>从市场即时反应来看，散户投资者对Burry的看空逻辑并不买账。据Stocktwits数据，美光和SOXX的零售情绪在Burry发文当日均处于"看多"区间，Nebius的零售情绪同样偏多，仅Palantir的散户情绪显示为"看空"。</p>\n<p>这一分歧折射出当前市场对AI相关半导体股票的整体乐观预期，与Burry所押注的供给过剩、价格下行逻辑形成直接对立。对于投资者而言，核心问题在于：半导体行业的产能扩张，究竟何时才会真正追上需求——而这正是Burry整个交易逻辑的关键变量。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d782f3a7e089042d5a3cab51b88bdbfc","relate_stocks":{"FAI":"First Trust Bloomberg Artificial Intelligence ETF","CGGO":"Capital Group Global Growth Equity ETF","METV":"Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF","ROM":"ProShares Ultra Technology","WISE":"THEMES GENERATIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ETF","THMR":"THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic ETF","AMAU":"Leverage Shares 2X Long AMAT Daily ETF","WLDR":"Affinity World Leaders Equity ETF","PTF":"Invesco Dorsey Wright Technology Momentum ETF","TRFK":"PACER DATA AND DIGITAL REVOLUTION ETF","PLYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST PLTR ETF","WUGI":"AXS Esoterica NextG Economy ETF","TEK":"iShares Technology Opportunities Active ETF","HBMX":"Tuttle Capital Concentrated Memory Stack ETF","NULC":"Nuveen ESG Large-Cap ETF","PTIR":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-GraniteShares","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","LEGR":"First Trust Indxx Innovative Transaction & Process ETF","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","ABFL":"ABACUS FCF LEADERS ETF","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","AMAT":"应用材料","CNEQ":"Alger Concentrated Equity ETF","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","MUD":"1倍做空MU ETF-Direxion","RULE":"Adaptive Core ETF","MUG":"Leverage Shares 2X Long MU Daily ETF","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","EGGY":"NESTYIELD DYNAMIC INCOME SHIELD ETF","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","EPAI":"Harbor AI Inflection Strategy ETF","SNPE":"Xtrackers S&P 500 Scored & Screened ETF","AIPI":"REX AI EQUITY PREMIUM INCOME ETF","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","NVDA":"英伟达","AIQ":"Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF","ESLG":"Eventide Large Cap Growth ETF","DRMY":"XFUNDS Memory Income ETF","MU":"美光科技","USXF":"iShares ESG Advanced MSCI USA ETF","BAI":"iShares A.I. 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S&P Global Informa","AMA":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Long AMAT ETF","PLTZ":"2倍做空PLTR ETF-Defiance","EFIV":"SPDR S&P 500 ESG ETF","AIFD":"TCW Artificial Intelligence ETF","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3782343","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2669049171","content_text":"因坚信内存市场供需格局正在逆转，Michael Burry大幅扩大了对半导体板块的空头押注。\n据Burry本人在Substack发文披露，他已进一步加码做空美光科技、AI基础设施公司Nebius、iShares半导体ETF以及Palantir，并强调此次操作\"规模相当大\"。此举的直接导火索，是宏碁CEO陈俊圣公开警告称，内存库存正在积累，新增供应将逐步冲击市场，并预计价格压力将于2027年底前后显现。\n上述消息并未阻止相关股票短线上涨——美光股价当日盘中涨逾2%，SOXX上涨约1.5%，Nebius和Palantir亦小幅走高。这意味着Burry的空头仓位在短期内承压，但他表示，宏碁CEO的表态\"与我所相信的判断相吻合\"。\n做空逻辑：AI拉动HBM需求，但普通内存供给正在反弹\nBurry的核心论点在于，此前内存市场的短缺并非需求端的结构性繁荣，而是供给端的阶段性错位。他在文中解释称，三星、SK海力士和美光等主要厂商为满足AI数据中心对高带宽内存（HBM）的旺盛需求，将大量产能从传统DRAM转向HBM，由此造成普通内存的供应紧张。\n然而，随着厂商逐步将普通内存产能恢复，叠加全球多个地区的新增供应陆续释放，Burry认为，\"正常DRAM\"的产量正在回升，供需缺口将逐步收窄，并最终对价格形成下行压力。\n宏碁CEO陈俊圣的表态为这一逻辑提供了新的佐证。Chen在接受采访时指出，内存库存已在积累，来自多个地区的供应商正在向市场释放更多产能，这将挑战\"当前短缺将持续数年\"的主流预期。Burry引用该采访后写道，尽管解读这一消息\"充满不确定性\"，但其方向与自己的判断一致。\n空头布局：从英伟达到美光，押注范围持续扩大\nBurry对半导体板块的看空布局并非一蹴而就。据披露，其旗下Scion Asset Management在2025年第三季度就已建立英伟达（NVDA）和Palantir的大额看跌期权仓位，彼时该基金随后宣告关闭。\n进入2026年，Burry以个人名义延续并扩大了这一交易。2026年6月下旬，他做空英伟达、应用材料（AMAT）及iShares半导体ETF，并将SOXX看跌期权展期至2027年3月。两天后，他将美光科技纳入做空标的，以约1051美元的价格直接建立空头仓位，并解释称选择直接做空而非买入看跌期权，是因为美光的期权权利金过于昂贵。\n此次加码，是Burry在上述基础上的进一步强化，标志着他对内存周期见顶的判断愈发坚定。\n散户情绪与Burry判断相左\n从市场即时反应来看，散户投资者对Burry的看空逻辑并不买账。据Stocktwits数据，美光和SOXX的零售情绪在Burry发文当日均处于\"看多\"区间，Nebius的零售情绪同样偏多，仅Palantir的散户情绪显示为\"看空\"。\n这一分歧折射出当前市场对AI相关半导体股票的整体乐观预期，与Burry所押注的供给过剩、价格下行逻辑形成直接对立。对于投资者而言，核心问题在于：半导体行业的产能扩张，究竟何时才会真正追上需求——而这正是Burry整个交易逻辑的关键变量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOXL":0.6,"SHLD":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"RDVY":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"09388":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"MU":1.96,"MUG":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"NVDA":1.87,"PLTA":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"EPAI":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"METV":0.6,"AMA":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"PLT":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"SNVDAmain":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"07388":0.6,"PLTR":1.85,"XNTK":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"09788":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"PLTL":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"SOXX":1.88,"MUZ":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"PTF":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"RDVI":0.6,"AMAT":1.81,"MIC":0.6,"PLTD":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"07788":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"SMU00main":0.6,"QQQG":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"SOXS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"USD":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"GUNZ":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"HBMX":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"TINY":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"AMAU":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVC":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"EYES":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"TDV":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"VT":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"APMI":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"SPLTRmain":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"SNPE":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":37,"optionInvolvedFlag":true,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":610921170956720,"commentId":"610921170956720","gmtCreate":1790169870788,"gmtModify":1790169876267,"authorId":3486519042189695,"author":{"id":3486519042189695,"idStr":"3486519042189695","authorId":3486519042189695,"name":"helpless","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/271fd56cdc2cd348b1eeb8259a8bdd7a","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.06","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1001,"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":0}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":610854793024160,"objectIdStr":"610854793024160","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"他有点发狂了 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