阿柱哥在杭州
09-30
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股价反弹40%后， 美光今夜迎财报大考：净利预期暴增超1000%，市场紧盯明年AI资本开支
华尔街见闻
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美光今夜迎财报大考：净利预期暴增超1000%，市场紧盯明年AI资本开支","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2671201013","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场预计美光第四财季净利同比暴增超1000%、营收增长逾350%，但股价自7月低点已反弹超40%，业绩利好部分已被市场消化。相比当季业绩，投资者更关注管理层对2027年超大规模云厂商AI资本开支的判断，以及内存价格上涨能否延续，这将成为美光后续估值重估的关键。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美光科技将于周三美股收盘后公布财报，市场焦点已从业绩本身转向管理层对超大规模云计算客户明年AI资本开支前景的表态。这一表态将直接决定股价自7月低点反弹40%的行情能否延续。</p>\n<p>在AI基础设施需求持续旺盛的背景下，美光股价已从7月29日低点累计反弹逾40%，市值增加约3700亿美元。Synovus Trust高级投资组合经理Daniel Morgan表示，<strong>若管理层在财报电话会上明确表示"不预期超大规模客户明年大幅削减资本开支预算，并预计支出将持续"，将对股价形成强劲催化。</strong></p>\n<p>然而，尽管近期基本面强劲，美光股价仍以约7倍远期市盈率交易，远低于过去两年约10倍的均值，也大幅落后于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的19倍。市场对2027至2028财年增速大幅放缓的预期，以及内存行业固有的周期性风险，持续压制估值。</p>\n<h2>盈利有望上修，但幅度收窄</h2>\n<p>分析师普遍预计美光本季度业绩将创历史新高，但上修空间较前几个季度有所收窄。</p>\n<p>据彭博汇编的分析师平均预期，<strong>美光截至8月底的2026财年第四财季净利润预计达360亿美元，营收约515亿美元，分别较上年同期增长逾1000%和350%。</strong>毛利率预计达86%，较2025财年第四季度的46%大幅提升。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore领衔的团队预测，该季度营收为500.24亿美元，环比增长20.7%，同比增长342.1%，略低于市场一致预期。其毛利率预测为86.4%，高于市场一致预期的85.3%；每股收益预测为31.20美元，略低于市场一致预期的31.49美元。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利在9月28日的研报中指出，预计本季度盈利将出现上修，但幅度低于前几个季度。该团队认为，当前DRAM和NAND市场需求强劲、价格上涨，但部分长期协议设有价格上限，且本季度为14周季度，可能带来一定的技术性阻力。</p>\n<h2>下季度展望：定价动能延续，营收有望超预期</h2>\n<p>对于截至11月底的下一财季，摩根士丹利预测营收为575.60亿美元，环比增长15.1%，同比增长321.9%，高于市场一致预期的566.44亿美元。其中，DRAM价格环比预计上涨12%，NAND价格环比上涨10%。毛利率预测为88.1%，高于市场一致预期的85.3%；每股收益预测为35.57美元，亦高于市场一致预期的35.07美元。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为，当前DRAM市场定价上行已成市场共识，NAND市场亦在Trendforce大幅上调预测后逐步形成共识。该团队估计，进入第四日历季度，内存价格的起点已较上季度上涨15%至20%，部分品类涨幅更高。</p>\n<p>就需求结构而言，摩根士丹利指出，尽管消费市场存在一定不确定性，供给已持续向企业级市场倾斜，且其渠道调研显示，企业采购的内存均被即时部署，库存积压风险有限。</p>\n<h2>核心争议：周期持续性，而非景气高度</h2>\n<p>市场对美光的核心争议已从"景气能有多好"转向"好景能持续多久"，这一转变对股价的重新定价意义深远。</p>\n<p>据彭博数据，<strong>美光营收增速预计将从2026财年的247%大幅放缓至2027财年的96%，并进一步收窄至2028财年的12%。</strong>这一增速曲线的急剧下滑，是当前7倍远期市盈率估值折价的核心逻辑所在。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">Janus Henderson</a>高级股票分析师Shaon Baqui表示，<strong>若内存行业能够维持80%以上的毛利率并保持持续现金流，最终有望推动股票估值重新定价至更高的市盈率倍数。</strong></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利则列出投资者对本轮上行周期持续性的三大担忧：一是AI服务器降配（de-specking）风险；二是中国内存供给扩张；三是资本开支驱动的整体供给增加。对此，该团队逐一回应称，AI算力部署对内存需求的价格敏感性较低，中国供给扩张在当前环境下难以超越西方厂商，而其行业调研显示，2027年和2028年供需将比当前更为紧张。摩根士丹利维持美光增持评级及1200美元目标价。</p>\n<h2>股价反弹持续性：估值折价与催化剂赛跑</h2>\n<p>美光股价自7月低点反弹逾40%，年内累计涨幅达273%，为标普500指数第四大涨幅股。然而，股价距6月25日历史高点仍有约12%的差距，估值修复之路尚未完成。</p>\n<p>近期，半导体板块情绪经历了明显波动。费城半导体指数9月14日单日重挫近6%，导火索是Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei呼吁放缓前沿AI模型开发以加强安全保障。此后，Meta旗下Muse AI助手的走红重燃市场对消费级AI落地的信心，推动半导体指数反弹逾13%。</p>\n<p>此外，摩根士丹利提示，美光的股票回购进展亦值得关注。受《芯片法案》相关限制，美光在本轮周期中现金回报受限，预计12月后回购空间将有所扩大，但该团队建议投资者对此保持审慎预期。</p>\n<p>综合来看，本次财报电话会上管理层对超大规模客户2027年AI资本开支的具体表态，将成为决定美光股价能否突破前高、完成估值重新定价的关键变量。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股价反弹40%后， 美光今夜迎财报大考：净利预期暴增超1000%，市场紧盯明年AI资本开支</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股价反弹40%后， 美光今夜迎财报大考：净利预期暴增超1000%，市场紧盯明年AI资本开支\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-30 21:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美光科技将于周三美股收盘后公布财报，市场焦点已从业绩本身转向管理层对超大规模云计算客户明年AI资本开支前景的表态。这一表态将直接决定股价自7月低点反弹40%的行情能否延续。</p>\n<p>在AI基础设施需求持续旺盛的背景下，美光股价已从7月29日低点累计反弹逾40%，市值增加约3700亿美元。Synovus Trust高级投资组合经理Daniel Morgan表示，<strong>若管理层在财报电话会上明确表示"不预期超大规模客户明年大幅削减资本开支预算，并预计支出将持续"，将对股价形成强劲催化。</strong></p>\n<p>然而，尽管近期基本面强劲，美光股价仍以约7倍远期市盈率交易，远低于过去两年约10倍的均值，也大幅落后于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的19倍。市场对2027至2028财年增速大幅放缓的预期，以及内存行业固有的周期性风险，持续压制估值。</p>\n<h2>盈利有望上修，但幅度收窄</h2>\n<p>分析师普遍预计美光本季度业绩将创历史新高，但上修空间较前几个季度有所收窄。</p>\n<p>据彭博汇编的分析师平均预期，<strong>美光截至8月底的2026财年第四财季净利润预计达360亿美元，营收约515亿美元，分别较上年同期增长逾1000%和350%。</strong>毛利率预计达86%，较2025财年第四季度的46%大幅提升。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore领衔的团队预测，该季度营收为500.24亿美元，环比增长20.7%，同比增长342.1%，略低于市场一致预期。其毛利率预测为86.4%，高于市场一致预期的85.3%；每股收益预测为31.20美元，略低于市场一致预期的31.49美元。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利在9月28日的研报中指出，预计本季度盈利将出现上修，但幅度低于前几个季度。该团队认为，当前DRAM和NAND市场需求强劲、价格上涨，但部分长期协议设有价格上限，且本季度为14周季度，可能带来一定的技术性阻力。</p>\n<h2>下季度展望：定价动能延续，营收有望超预期</h2>\n<p>对于截至11月底的下一财季，摩根士丹利预测营收为575.60亿美元，环比增长15.1%，同比增长321.9%，高于市场一致预期的566.44亿美元。其中，DRAM价格环比预计上涨12%，NAND价格环比上涨10%。毛利率预测为88.1%，高于市场一致预期的85.3%；每股收益预测为35.57美元，亦高于市场一致预期的35.07美元。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为，当前DRAM市场定价上行已成市场共识，NAND市场亦在Trendforce大幅上调预测后逐步形成共识。该团队估计，进入第四日历季度，内存价格的起点已较上季度上涨15%至20%，部分品类涨幅更高。</p>\n<p>就需求结构而言，摩根士丹利指出，尽管消费市场存在一定不确定性，供给已持续向企业级市场倾斜，且其渠道调研显示，企业采购的内存均被即时部署，库存积压风险有限。</p>\n<h2>核心争议：周期持续性，而非景气高度</h2>\n<p>市场对美光的核心争议已从"景气能有多好"转向"好景能持续多久"，这一转变对股价的重新定价意义深远。</p>\n<p>据彭博数据，<strong>美光营收增速预计将从2026财年的247%大幅放缓至2027财年的96%，并进一步收窄至2028财年的12%。</strong>这一增速曲线的急剧下滑，是当前7倍远期市盈率估值折价的核心逻辑所在。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">Janus Henderson</a>高级股票分析师Shaon Baqui表示，<strong>若内存行业能够维持80%以上的毛利率并保持持续现金流，最终有望推动股票估值重新定价至更高的市盈率倍数。</strong></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利则列出投资者对本轮上行周期持续性的三大担忧：一是AI服务器降配（de-specking）风险；二是中国内存供给扩张；三是资本开支驱动的整体供给增加。对此，该团队逐一回应称，AI算力部署对内存需求的价格敏感性较低，中国供给扩张在当前环境下难以超越西方厂商，而其行业调研显示，2027年和2028年供需将比当前更为紧张。摩根士丹利维持美光增持评级及1200美元目标价。</p>\n<h2>股价反弹持续性：估值折价与催化剂赛跑</h2>\n<p>美光股价自7月低点反弹逾40%，年内累计涨幅达273%，为标普500指数第四大涨幅股。然而，股价距6月25日历史高点仍有约12%的差距，估值修复之路尚未完成。</p>\n<p>近期，半导体板块情绪经历了明显波动。费城半导体指数9月14日单日重挫近6%，导火索是Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei呼吁放缓前沿AI模型开发以加强安全保障。此后，Meta旗下Muse AI助手的走红重燃市场对消费级AI落地的信心，推动半导体指数反弹逾13%。</p>\n<p>此外，摩根士丹利提示，美光的股票回购进展亦值得关注。受《芯片法案》相关限制，美光在本轮周期中现金回报受限，预计12月后回购空间将有所扩大，但该团队建议投资者对此保持审慎预期。</p>\n<p>综合来看，本次财报电话会上管理层对超大规模客户2027年AI资本开支的具体表态，将成为决定美光股价能否突破前高、完成估值重新定价的关键变量。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL 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TREND \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU2102340556.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - RISK PARITY FACTOR \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3782836","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2671201013","content_text":"美光科技将于周三美股收盘后公布财报，市场焦点已从业绩本身转向管理层对超大规模云计算客户明年AI资本开支前景的表态。这一表态将直接决定股价自7月低点反弹40%的行情能否延续。\n在AI基础设施需求持续旺盛的背景下，美光股价已从7月29日低点累计反弹逾40%，市值增加约3700亿美元。Synovus Trust高级投资组合经理Daniel Morgan表示，若管理层在财报电话会上明确表示\"不预期超大规模客户明年大幅削减资本开支预算，并预计支出将持续\"，将对股价形成强劲催化。\n然而，尽管近期基本面强劲，美光股价仍以约7倍远期市盈率交易，远低于过去两年约10倍的均值，也大幅落后于标普500指数的19倍。市场对2027至2028财年增速大幅放缓的预期，以及内存行业固有的周期性风险，持续压制估值。\n盈利有望上修，但幅度收窄\n分析师普遍预计美光本季度业绩将创历史新高，但上修空间较前几个季度有所收窄。\n据彭博汇编的分析师平均预期，美光截至8月底的2026财年第四财季净利润预计达360亿美元，营收约515亿美元，分别较上年同期增长逾1000%和350%。毛利率预计达86%，较2025财年第四季度的46%大幅提升。\n摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore领衔的团队预测，该季度营收为500.24亿美元，环比增长20.7%，同比增长342.1%，略低于市场一致预期。其毛利率预测为86.4%，高于市场一致预期的85.3%；每股收益预测为31.20美元，略低于市场一致预期的31.49美元。\n摩根士丹利在9月28日的研报中指出，预计本季度盈利将出现上修，但幅度低于前几个季度。该团队认为，当前DRAM和NAND市场需求强劲、价格上涨，但部分长期协议设有价格上限，且本季度为14周季度，可能带来一定的技术性阻力。\n下季度展望：定价动能延续，营收有望超预期\n对于截至11月底的下一财季，摩根士丹利预测营收为575.60亿美元，环比增长15.1%，同比增长321.9%，高于市场一致预期的566.44亿美元。其中，DRAM价格环比预计上涨12%，NAND价格环比上涨10%。毛利率预测为88.1%，高于市场一致预期的85.3%；每股收益预测为35.57美元，亦高于市场一致预期的35.07美元。\n摩根士丹利认为，当前DRAM市场定价上行已成市场共识，NAND市场亦在Trendforce大幅上调预测后逐步形成共识。该团队估计，进入第四日历季度，内存价格的起点已较上季度上涨15%至20%，部分品类涨幅更高。\n就需求结构而言，摩根士丹利指出，尽管消费市场存在一定不确定性，供给已持续向企业级市场倾斜，且其渠道调研显示，企业采购的内存均被即时部署，库存积压风险有限。\n核心争议：周期持续性，而非景气高度\n市场对美光的核心争议已从\"景气能有多好\"转向\"好景能持续多久\"，这一转变对股价的重新定价意义深远。\n据彭博数据，美光营收增速预计将从2026财年的247%大幅放缓至2027财年的96%，并进一步收窄至2028财年的12%。这一增速曲线的急剧下滑，是当前7倍远期市盈率估值折价的核心逻辑所在。\nJanus Henderson高级股票分析师Shaon Baqui表示，若内存行业能够维持80%以上的毛利率并保持持续现金流，最终有望推动股票估值重新定价至更高的市盈率倍数。\n摩根士丹利则列出投资者对本轮上行周期持续性的三大担忧：一是AI服务器降配（de-specking）风险；二是中国内存供给扩张；三是资本开支驱动的整体供给增加。对此，该团队逐一回应称，AI算力部署对内存需求的价格敏感性较低，中国供给扩张在当前环境下难以超越西方厂商，而其行业调研显示，2027年和2028年供需将比当前更为紧张。摩根士丹利维持美光增持评级及1200美元目标价。\n股价反弹持续性：估值折价与催化剂赛跑\n美光股价自7月低点反弹逾40%，年内累计涨幅达273%，为标普500指数第四大涨幅股。然而，股价距6月25日历史高点仍有约12%的差距，估值修复之路尚未完成。\n近期，半导体板块情绪经历了明显波动。费城半导体指数9月14日单日重挫近6%，导火索是Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei呼吁放缓前沿AI模型开发以加强安全保障。此后，Meta旗下Muse AI助手的走红重燃市场对消费级AI落地的信心，推动半导体指数反弹逾13%。\n此外，摩根士丹利提示，美光的股票回购进展亦值得关注。受《芯片法案》相关限制，美光在本轮周期中现金回报受限，预计12月后回购空间将有所扩大，但该团队建议投资者对此保持审慎预期。\n综合来看，本次财报电话会上管理层对超大规模客户2027年AI资本开支的具体表态，将成为决定美光股价能否突破前高、完成估值重新定价的关键变量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AIFD":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"MU":1.98,"MUU":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"HBMX":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"PTF":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"MUG":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"MULL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/613410317324640"}
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