10月5日-黄金底部横盘后，本周目标位看多少？

下周利率线上有个时间点值得标出来:美联储主席沃什将于北京时间10月16日中午在曼谷IMF年会上讲话,这是10月27日至28日议息会议静默期前官员最后一次发声。市场押注分两步:10月不动概率约80%,12月重启加息也在80%上下,直接压在估值上——周四QQQ收跌1.34%报747.58美元,SPY收跌0.42%报773.93美元。债券走自己的路:10月7日10年期美债收益率盘中最高5.366%,30年期5.728%,双双刷新2002年以来高点。多头认为10月不加息已被充分定价,讲话没推翻就等于搬开压在估值上的石头;空头认为长端上行不全由政策预期驱动,财政压力和美债供需失衡尚未化解,推升长债的是期限溢价,美联储按不按兵都不改变长端逻辑。这条路径对股市是好事吗?

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