美股纳指调整主要还是节奏因素，港股弱势可见趋势的力量

中环杰哥投资探秘

美股，三大指数涨跌互现。背后原因很多，但没必要细究。从根本上看，就是大盘突破后的回落下探寻支撑，另外，就是波段节奏的诉求。因此，关注大盘在前高支撑和20日线支撑之间何时企稳。港股，继续弱势，很简单，市场好才做，不好就不碰(这策略贯穿了大半年了)。

其实，现在看，国债收益率趋缓明显，甚至都开始拐头下跌，这是很好的现象，油价，大家已经近乎脱敏，所以，关注整体大势和节奏，会看得更清楚。

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $台积电(TSM)$

静默期前最后一次发声,沃什会说什么?

下周利率线上有个时间点值得标出来:美联储主席沃什将于北京时间10月16日中午在曼谷IMF年会上讲话,这是10月27日至28日议息会议静默期前官员最后一次发声。市场押注分两步:10月不动概率约80%,12月重启加息也在80%上下,直接压在估值上——周四QQQ收跌1.34%报747.58美元,SPY收跌0.42%报773.93美元。债券走自己的路:10月7日10年期美债收益率盘中最高5.366%,30年期5.728%,双双刷新2002年以来高点。多头认为10月不加息已被充分定价,讲话没推翻就等于搬开压在估值上的石头;空头认为长端上行不全由政策预期驱动,财政压力和美债供需失衡尚未化解,推升长债的是期限溢价,美联储按不按兵都不改变长端逻辑。这条路径对股市是好事吗?

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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