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2022-02-21
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PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week<blockquote>PCE通胀、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":638250514,"tweetId":"638250514","gmtCreate":1645400444044,"gmtModify":1645400444517,"author":{"id":3581563210225638,"idStr":"3581563210225638","authorId":3581563210225638,"authorIdStr":"3581563210225638","name":"LibeQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4324ade348ea3ff287da6d5b4d6bd3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":39,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like</p></body></html>","text":"Like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638250514","repostId":2213670409,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213670409","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645399123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2213670409?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-21 07:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week<blockquote>PCE通胀、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213670409","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"After stocks endured a second straight week of selling last week, investors will be looking to a sla","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After stocks endured a second straight week of selling last week, investors will be looking to a slate of fresh economic and earnings data as a catalyst for a potential reprieve.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>在上周股市经历了连续第二周的抛售后，投资者将期待一系列新的经济和盈利数据作为潜在缓解的催化剂。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Presidents Day holiday, so new data releases will be consolidated to the later part of the week. And updates on tensions in Russia and Ukraine will also remain in focus throughout the week after stocks sank to their lowest levels in a month on Friday, amid concerns about the escalating geopolitical conflict.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和债市周一将因总统日假期休市，因此新数据的发布将合并到本周晚些时候。由于对地缘政治冲突升级的担忧，周五股市跌至一个月来的最低水平后，俄罗斯和乌克兰紧张局势的最新消息也将继续成为本周的焦点。</blockquote></p><p>While the emerging threat of military conflict has overshadowed many other worries in the markets, inflation has still remained a central issue for investors. Inflation has implications both in informing the speed at which the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, and the extent to which consumers pull back on spending and slow overall economic activity in response to rising prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管新出现的军事冲突威胁盖过了市场上的许多其他担忧，但通胀仍然是投资者的核心问题。通货膨胀既影响美联储收紧货币政策的速度，也影响消费者因物价上涨而缩减支出和减缓整体经济活动的程度。</blockquote></p><p>"I really think most of the Russia-Ukraine volatility occurred in the energy space, particularly with oil. I think the rest of the volatility in the broader market has to do with the Fed tightening conversation," Frances Stacy, Optimal Capital director of strategy, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. "We're looking at this sort of aggressive tightening against this backdrop of inflation, and I think that that's what's causing the volatility."</p><p><blockquote>Optimal Capital策略总监弗朗西斯·斯泰西(Frances Stacy)表示：“我确实认为俄罗斯-乌克兰的大部分波动发生在能源领域，尤其是石油领域。我认为大盘的其余波动与美联储的紧缩对话有关。”周五告诉雅虎财经直播。“我们正在考虑在通胀背景下采取这种激进的紧缩政策，我认为这就是导致波动的原因。”</blockquote></p><p>On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator, offering a fresh print on the extent of price increases across the recovering economy.</p><p><blockquote>周五，经济分析局将发布月度个人消费支出（PCE）平减指数，提供有关复苏经济中价格上涨程度的最新信息。</blockquote></p><p>Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in January, according to Bloomberg data, accelerating from December's 0.4% increase. This would represent a 14th consecutive monthly increase, and bring the index up by 6.0% on a year-over-year basis. This, in turn, would mark the fastest increase since 1982, and also accelerate from December's 5.8% annual rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据彭博社的数据，经济学家普遍预计1月份PCE将再上涨0.6%，较12月份0.4%的涨幅有所加快。这将是连续第14个月上涨，使该指数同比上涨6.0%。反过来，这将标志着自1982年以来最快的增长，也比12月份5.8%的年增长率有所加速。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b39365db67b4cbe5d9181911de7b8a\" tg-width=\"4421\" tg-height=\"2947\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The core PCE index — the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation stripping out volatile food and energy prices — likely also ramped compared to December's index. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.2% increase in core PCE in January, compared to December's 4.9% rise.</p><p><blockquote>核心PCE指数（美联储首选的衡量潜在通胀的指标，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格）与12月指数相比也可能有所上升。经济学家一致预计1月份核心PCE将增长5.2%，而12月份为4.9%。</blockquote></p><p>Expectations for the latest inflation print suggest the economy has still not yet seen the peak in price increases. And increasingly, central bank officials have come around to the notion that inflation has remained stickier than previously expected, especially as supply chain issues and virus-related disruptions persist.</p><p><blockquote>对最新通胀数据的预期表明，经济尚未看到物价上涨的峰值。央行官员越来越多地接受这样一种观点，即通胀仍然比之前预期的更具粘性，特别是在供应链问题和病毒相关中断持续存在的情况下。</blockquote></p><p>"Since the December meeting, I would say that the inflation situation is about the same but probably slightly worse," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a January press conference. "I’d be inclined to raise my own estimate of 2022 core PCE inflation ... by a few tenths today."</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在1月份的新闻发布会上表示：“自12月会议以来，我想说通胀形势大致相同，但可能稍微糟糕一些。”“我倾向于将自己对2022年核心PCE通胀的估计……今天上调十分之几。”</blockquote></p><p>And the latest print on PCE will likely reaffirm readings from other closely watched inflation prints. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 7.5% year-over-year to represent the largest increase since 1982, accelerating markedly from the 7.0% increase from December. And on the producer side, wholesale prices jumped 9.7% year-on-year in January, ticking down only slightly from December's record increase of 9.8%.</p><p><blockquote>PCE的最新数据可能会重申其他备受关注的通胀数据。1月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨7.5%，创1982年以来最大涨幅，较12月份7.0%的涨幅明显加快。在生产者方面，1月份批发价格同比上涨9.7%，仅略低于12月份创纪录的9.8%涨幅。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Consumer confidence</h2><h2></h2>Despite the mounting inflationary pressures, however, consumers have largely continued to spend. Retail sales rose by a better-than-expected 3.8% in January, marking the biggest jump since March 2021 and exceeding estimates.</p><p><blockquote><h2>消费者信心</h2><h2></h2>然而，尽管通胀压力越来越大，消费者基本上仍在继续消费。1月份零售额增长3.8%，好于预期，创2021年3月以来最大增幅，超出预期。</blockquote></p><p>And this steady consumption has come even as consumers increasingly cited inflation as a key concern for their own personal finances. Average hourly wages have also climbed in recent months, but have still not kept pace with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>尽管消费者越来越多地将通货膨胀视为个人财务的主要担忧，但这种稳定的消费还是出现了。近几个月来，平均时薪也有所攀升，但仍跟不上通货膨胀的步伐。</blockquote></p><p>"The resilience of spending stands in stark contrast to the slump in consumer confidence, with households upping their purchases of big ticket items while simultaneously reporting that now is a particularly bad time to make those purchases," Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note. "The surge in inflation is the root cause of consumer angst. Sentiment should improve as inflation falls back later this year, but the current weakness is a reminder that real consumption growth will be muted this year."</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观首席北美经济学家保罗·阿什沃斯(Paul Ashworth)表示：“支出的弹性与消费者信心的下滑形成鲜明对比，家庭增加了大件商品的购买，同时报告说现在是购买这些商品的特别糟糕的时机。”经济学，在一份说明中写道。“通胀飙升是消费者焦虑的根本原因。随着今年晚些时候通胀回落，市场情绪应该会有所改善，但目前的疲软提醒人们，今年实际消费增长将受到抑制。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will help provide a timely snapshot of consumers' thinking following the latest spike in prices at the beginning of the year. Consensus economists are looking for the index to fall to 110.0 for February, which would mark the lowest level since September 2021, when the Delta variant had weighed on consumers' outlooks. The consumer confidence index had been at 113.8 in January.</p><p><blockquote>世界大型企业联合会将于周二发布的消费者信心指数将有助于及时了解消费者在年初最近一次价格飙升后的想法。经济学家普遍预计2月份该指数将跌至110.0，这将是自2021年9月以来的最低水平，当时德尔塔变异毒株给消费者前景带来压力。1月份消费者信心指数为113.8。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Earnings season rolls on</h2><h2><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2704a78dbeac36d3a78a7c3a7e70f026\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2016\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></h2>Investors will also receive a number of new earnings results this week, with major retailers including Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Macy's (M) and The TJX Cos. (TJX) reporting alongside other closely watched names from Coinbase (COIN) to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a> (W) and Nikola (NKLA).</p><p><blockquote><h2>财报季即将到来</h2><h2></h2>投资者本周还将收到一些新的盈利结果，主要零售商包括家得宝(HD)、劳氏(LOW)、梅西百货(M)和TJX Cos。(TJX)与Coinbase(COIN)等其他备受关注的公司一起报道<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a>（W）和尼古拉（NKLA）。</blockquote></p><p>So far this earnings season, corporate profits have remained robust, albeit while slowing compared to prior quarters. As of Friday, 84% of S&P 500 companies had reported actual fourth-quarter earnings results, according to FactSet. And the estimated earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies in aggregate stood at 30.9%, compared to about 40% from the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>本财报季到目前为止，企业利润仍然强劲，尽管与前几个季度相比有所放缓。FactSet的数据显示，截至周五，84%的标普500公司已公布第四季度实际盈利结果。标普500公司整体盈利增长率预计为30.9%，而第三季度约为40%。</blockquote></p><p>Still, the estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter has trended continuously higher as more companies reported better-than-expected results. On December 31, the estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter had been at just 21.2%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，随着更多公司公布好于预期的业绩，第四季度的预计盈利增长率持续走高。截至12月31日，预计第四季度盈利增长率仅为21.2%。</blockquote></p><p>But while results for many companies have been positive for the final three months of 2021, outlooks have weakened, reflecting lingering supply chain uncertainty, rising prices and other macro concerns. FactSet noted that of companies that held their earnings conference calls between Dec. 15 and Feb. 17, 72% of the corporations mentioned "inflation."</p><p><blockquote>但是，尽管许多公司在2021年最后三个月的业绩都是积极的，但前景已经减弱，反映出挥之不去的供应链不确定性、价格上涨和其他宏观担忧。FactSet指出，在12月15日至2月17日期间在评级举行财报会议的公司中，72%的公司提到了“通货膨胀”。</blockquote></p><p>"In terms of earnings guidance from corporations, 71% of the S&P 500 companies (55 out of 77) that have issued EPS [earnings per share] guidance for Q1 2022 have issued negative guidance," FactSet's John Butters wrote in a note Friday. "This is the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative guidance since Q3 2019 (73%)."</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的John Butters在周五的一份报告中写道：“就企业盈利指引而言，在发布2022年第一季度EPS（每股收益）指引的标普500公司中，71%（77家中的55家）发布了负面指引。”“这是自2019年第三季度（73%）以来发布负面指引的标普500公司比例最高的一次。”</blockquote></p><p>"Thus, the market may be reacting more to the negative earnings guidance and downward estimates revisions for the first quarter of 2022 than the earnings surprises being reported for the fourth-quarter of 2021," Butters added.</p><p><blockquote>巴特斯补充道：“因此，市场对2022年第一季度的负面盈利指引和下调预期的反应可能比对2021年第四季度报告的意外盈利反应更大。”</blockquote></p><p><h2>Economic calendar</h2><ul><li><b>Monday: </b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><h2>经济日历</h2><ul><li><b>星期一：</b><i>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li><li><b>Tuesday: </b>FHFA House Price Index, December (1.1% expected, 1.1% in November); S&P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a> Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, December month-over-month (1.10% expected, 1.18% in November); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, December year-over-year (18.30% expected, 18.29% in November); <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> U.S. Manufacturing PMI, February preliminary (56.0 expected, 55.5 in January); Markit U.S. Services PMI, February preliminary (53.0 expected, 51.2 in January); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, February preliminary (51.1 in January); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, February (110.0 expected, 113.8 in January); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, February (10 expected, 8 in January)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>FHFA房价指数，12月（预期1.1%，11月1.1%）；标准普尔<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">核心逻辑</a>Case-Shiller 20城综合指数，12月环比（预期1.10%，11月1.18%）；S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20城市综合指数，12月同比（预期18.30%，11月18.29%）；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>美国2月制造业PMI初值（预期56.0，1月55.5）；Markit美国服务业PMI，2月初值（预期53.0，1月51.2）；Markit美国2月综合PMI初值（1月为51.1）；世界大型企业联合会2月消费者信心指数（预期110.0，1月113.8）；2月里士满联储制造业指数（预期10，1月8）</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li><b>Wednesday: </b>MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended February 18 (-5.4% during prior week)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>截至2月18日当周的MBA抵押贷款申请（前一周为-5.4%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li><b>Thursday: </b>Chicago Fed National Activity Index, January (-0.15 in December); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q second estimate (7.0% expected, 6.9% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, 4Q second estimate (3.3% expected, 3.3% in prior estimate); Core PCE quarter-over-quarter, 4Q second estimate (4.9% expected, 4.9% in prior estimate); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, February (24 in January)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>芝加哥联储全国活动指数，1月（12月-0.15）；GDP年化、环比、第四季度第二次预估（预期7.0%，之前预估6.9%）；个人消费，第四季度第二次估计（预期3.3%，之前估计3.3%）；核心PCE环比，第四季度第二次预估（预期4.9%，之前预估4.9%）；堪萨斯城联储2月制造业活动（1月24日）</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li><b>Friday: </b>Personal income, January (-0.4%, 0.3% in December); Personal spending, January (1.5% expected, -0.6% in December); Durable Goods Orders, January preliminary (0.9% -0.7% in December); Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation, January preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.6% in December); PCE deflator, January year-over-year (6.0% expected, 5.8% in December); PCE deflator, January month-over-month (0.6% expected, 0.4% in December); PCE core deflator, January year-over-year (5.2% expected, 4.9% in December); PCE core deflator, January month-over-month (0.5% expected, 0.5% in December)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b>个人收入，1月（-0.4%，12月0.3%）；个人支出，1月（预期1.5%，12月-0.6%）；耐用品订单，1月初步（12月0.9%-0.7%）；不包括运输的耐用品订单，1月初步（预期0.3%，12月0.6%）；PCE平减指数，1月同比（预期6.0%，12月5.8%）；PCE平减指数，1月环比（预期0.6%，12月0.4%）；PCE核心平减指数，1月同比（预期5.2%，12月4.9%）；PCE核心平减指数，1月环比（预期0.5%，12月0.5%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li></ul><h2>Earnings calendar</h2><h2></h2><b>Monday</b></p><p><blockquote><h2>盈利日历</h2><h2></h2><b>周一</b></blockquote></p><p><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><i>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</i></blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>周二</b></blockquote></p><p>Before market open: Apache Corp. (APA), Home Depot (HD), Tempur Sealy International (TPX), Macy's (M)</p><p><blockquote>开市前：阿帕奇公司(APA)、家得宝(HD)、泰普尔丝涟国际(TPX)、梅西百货(M)</blockquote></p><p></p><p>After market close: Caesar's Entertainment (CZR), Agilent Technologies (A), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANG\">Diamondback Energy</a> (FANG), The Mosaic Co. (MOS), Toll Brothers (TOL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a> (PANW), Teladoc Health (TDOC)</p><p><blockquote>收盘后：凯撒娱乐（CZR）、安捷伦科技（A）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANG\">响尾蛇能源公司</a>(FANG)、The Mosaic Co.(MOS)、Toll Brothers(TOL)、维珍银河(SPCE)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">帕洛阿尔托网络</a>(PANW)、Teladoc Health(TDOC)</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三</b></blockquote></p><p>Before market open: Lowe's (LOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OSTK\">Overstock.com</a> (OSTK), The TJX Cos. (TJX), Cerner Corp. (CERN)</p><p><blockquote>开盘前：劳氏(LOW)，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OSTK\">Overstock.com</a>（OSTK），TJX公司。(TJX)，塞尔纳公司(CERN)</blockquote></p><p>After market close: Hertz (HTZ), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> (EBAY), Revolve Group Inc. (RVLV), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> (BKNG), FuboTV (FUBO), Allbirds (BIRD), Bath and Body Works (BBWI), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation Entertainment</a> (LYV), The Real Real (REAL), Lemonade (LMND)</p><p><blockquote>收盘后：赫兹（HTZ），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>(EBAY)、Revolve Group Inc.(RVLV)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">预订控股</a>(BKNG)、FuboTV(FUBO)、Allbirds(BIRD)、Bath and Body Works(BBWI)、Chesapeake Energy(CHK)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">现场国家娱乐</a>(LYV)、真实真实(REAL)、柠檬水(LMND)</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四</b></blockquote></p><p>Before market open: Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Newmont Corp. (NEM), SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS), Moderna (MRNA), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Nikola (NKLA), Wayfair (W), Six Flags Entertainment (SIX), Discovery Inc. (DISCA), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY)</p><p><blockquote>开市前：Keurig Dr.Pepper(KDP)、Newmont Corp.(NEM)、SeaWorld Entertainment(SEAS)、Moderna(MRNA)、Planet Fitness(PLNT)、Nikola(NKLA)、Wayfair(W)、六旗娱乐(SIX)、探索公司(DISCA)、挪威邮轮控股(NCLH)、西方石油公司(OXY)</blockquote></p><p>After market close: Intuit (INTU), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Autodesk (ADSK), Coinbase (COIN), Dell Technologies (DELL), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ2.AU\">Block Inc.</a> (SQ), Zscaler (ZS), Rocket Cos. (RKT), VMWare (VMW), Etsy (ETSY), Beyond Meat (BYND), Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST)</p><p><blockquote>收盘后：Intuit(INTU)、Opendoor Technologies(OPEN)、Autodesk(ADSK)、Coinbase(COIN)、戴尔科技(DELL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ2.AU\">布洛克公司。</a>(SQ)、Zscaler(ZS)、Rocket Cos。(RKT)、VMWare(VMW)、Etsy(ETSY)、Beyond Meat(BYND)、Monster Beverage Corp.(MNST)</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五</b></blockquote></p><p><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><i>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</i></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week<blockquote>PCE通胀、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week<blockquote>PCE通胀、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 07:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After stocks endured a second straight week of selling last week, investors will be looking to a slate of fresh economic and earnings data as a catalyst for a potential reprieve.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>在上周股市经历了连续第二周的抛售后，投资者将期待一系列新的经济和盈利数据作为潜在缓解的催化剂。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Presidents Day holiday, so new data releases will be consolidated to the later part of the week. And updates on tensions in Russia and Ukraine will also remain in focus throughout the week after stocks sank to their lowest levels in a month on Friday, amid concerns about the escalating geopolitical conflict.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和债市周一将因总统日假期休市，因此新数据的发布将合并到本周晚些时候。由于对地缘政治冲突升级的担忧，周五股市跌至一个月来的最低水平后，俄罗斯和乌克兰紧张局势的最新消息也将继续成为本周的焦点。</blockquote></p><p>While the emerging threat of military conflict has overshadowed many other worries in the markets, inflation has still remained a central issue for investors. Inflation has implications both in informing the speed at which the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, and the extent to which consumers pull back on spending and slow overall economic activity in response to rising prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管新出现的军事冲突威胁盖过了市场上的许多其他担忧，但通胀仍然是投资者的核心问题。通货膨胀既影响美联储收紧货币政策的速度，也影响消费者因物价上涨而缩减支出和减缓整体经济活动的程度。</blockquote></p><p>"I really think most of the Russia-Ukraine volatility occurred in the energy space, particularly with oil. I think the rest of the volatility in the broader market has to do with the Fed tightening conversation," Frances Stacy, Optimal Capital director of strategy, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. "We're looking at this sort of aggressive tightening against this backdrop of inflation, and I think that that's what's causing the volatility."</p><p><blockquote>Optimal Capital策略总监弗朗西斯·斯泰西(Frances Stacy)表示：“我确实认为俄罗斯-乌克兰的大部分波动发生在能源领域，尤其是石油领域。我认为大盘的其余波动与美联储的紧缩对话有关。”周五告诉雅虎财经直播。“我们正在考虑在通胀背景下采取这种激进的紧缩政策，我认为这就是导致波动的原因。”</blockquote></p><p>On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator, offering a fresh print on the extent of price increases across the recovering economy.</p><p><blockquote>周五，经济分析局将发布月度个人消费支出（PCE）平减指数，提供有关复苏经济中价格上涨程度的最新信息。</blockquote></p><p>Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in January, according to Bloomberg data, accelerating from December's 0.4% increase. This would represent a 14th consecutive monthly increase, and bring the index up by 6.0% on a year-over-year basis. This, in turn, would mark the fastest increase since 1982, and also accelerate from December's 5.8% annual rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据彭博社的数据，经济学家普遍预计1月份PCE将再上涨0.6%，较12月份0.4%的涨幅有所加快。这将是连续第14个月上涨，使该指数同比上涨6.0%。反过来，这将标志着自1982年以来最快的增长，也比12月份5.8%的年增长率有所加速。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b39365db67b4cbe5d9181911de7b8a\" tg-width=\"4421\" tg-height=\"2947\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The core PCE index — the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation stripping out volatile food and energy prices — likely also ramped compared to December's index. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.2% increase in core PCE in January, compared to December's 4.9% rise.</p><p><blockquote>核心PCE指数（美联储首选的衡量潜在通胀的指标，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格）与12月指数相比也可能有所上升。经济学家一致预计1月份核心PCE将增长5.2%，而12月份为4.9%。</blockquote></p><p>Expectations for the latest inflation print suggest the economy has still not yet seen the peak in price increases. And increasingly, central bank officials have come around to the notion that inflation has remained stickier than previously expected, especially as supply chain issues and virus-related disruptions persist.</p><p><blockquote>对最新通胀数据的预期表明，经济尚未看到物价上涨的峰值。央行官员越来越多地接受这样一种观点，即通胀仍然比之前预期的更具粘性，特别是在供应链问题和病毒相关中断持续存在的情况下。</blockquote></p><p>"Since the December meeting, I would say that the inflation situation is about the same but probably slightly worse," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a January press conference. "I’d be inclined to raise my own estimate of 2022 core PCE inflation ... by a few tenths today."</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在1月份的新闻发布会上表示：“自12月会议以来，我想说通胀形势大致相同，但可能稍微糟糕一些。”“我倾向于将自己对2022年核心PCE通胀的估计……今天上调十分之几。”</blockquote></p><p>And the latest print on PCE will likely reaffirm readings from other closely watched inflation prints. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 7.5% year-over-year to represent the largest increase since 1982, accelerating markedly from the 7.0% increase from December. And on the producer side, wholesale prices jumped 9.7% year-on-year in January, ticking down only slightly from December's record increase of 9.8%.</p><p><blockquote>PCE的最新数据可能会重申其他备受关注的通胀数据。1月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨7.5%，创1982年以来最大涨幅，较12月份7.0%的涨幅明显加快。在生产者方面，1月份批发价格同比上涨9.7%，仅略低于12月份创纪录的9.8%涨幅。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Consumer confidence</h2><h2></h2>Despite the mounting inflationary pressures, however, consumers have largely continued to spend. Retail sales rose by a better-than-expected 3.8% in January, marking the biggest jump since March 2021 and exceeding estimates.</p><p><blockquote><h2>消费者信心</h2><h2></h2>然而，尽管通胀压力越来越大，消费者基本上仍在继续消费。1月份零售额增长3.8%，好于预期，创2021年3月以来最大增幅，超出预期。</blockquote></p><p>And this steady consumption has come even as consumers increasingly cited inflation as a key concern for their own personal finances. Average hourly wages have also climbed in recent months, but have still not kept pace with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>尽管消费者越来越多地将通货膨胀视为个人财务的主要担忧，但这种稳定的消费还是出现了。近几个月来，平均时薪也有所攀升，但仍跟不上通货膨胀的步伐。</blockquote></p><p>"The resilience of spending stands in stark contrast to the slump in consumer confidence, with households upping their purchases of big ticket items while simultaneously reporting that now is a particularly bad time to make those purchases," Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note. "The surge in inflation is the root cause of consumer angst. Sentiment should improve as inflation falls back later this year, but the current weakness is a reminder that real consumption growth will be muted this year."</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观首席北美经济学家保罗·阿什沃斯(Paul Ashworth)表示：“支出的弹性与消费者信心的下滑形成鲜明对比，家庭增加了大件商品的购买，同时报告说现在是购买这些商品的特别糟糕的时机。”经济学，在一份说明中写道。“通胀飙升是消费者焦虑的根本原因。随着今年晚些时候通胀回落，市场情绪应该会有所改善，但目前的疲软提醒人们，今年实际消费增长将受到抑制。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will help provide a timely snapshot of consumers' thinking following the latest spike in prices at the beginning of the year. Consensus economists are looking for the index to fall to 110.0 for February, which would mark the lowest level since September 2021, when the Delta variant had weighed on consumers' outlooks. The consumer confidence index had been at 113.8 in January.</p><p><blockquote>世界大型企业联合会将于周二发布的消费者信心指数将有助于及时了解消费者在年初最近一次价格飙升后的想法。经济学家普遍预计2月份该指数将跌至110.0，这将是自2021年9月以来的最低水平，当时德尔塔变异毒株给消费者前景带来压力。1月份消费者信心指数为113.8。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Earnings season rolls on</h2><h2><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2704a78dbeac36d3a78a7c3a7e70f026\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2016\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></h2>Investors will also receive a number of new earnings results this week, with major retailers including Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Macy's (M) and The TJX Cos. (TJX) reporting alongside other closely watched names from Coinbase (COIN) to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a> (W) and Nikola (NKLA).</p><p><blockquote><h2>财报季即将到来</h2><h2></h2>投资者本周还将收到一些新的盈利结果，主要零售商包括家得宝(HD)、劳氏(LOW)、梅西百货(M)和TJX Cos。(TJX)与Coinbase(COIN)等其他备受关注的公司一起报道<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a>（W）和尼古拉（NKLA）。</blockquote></p><p>So far this earnings season, corporate profits have remained robust, albeit while slowing compared to prior quarters. As of Friday, 84% of S&P 500 companies had reported actual fourth-quarter earnings results, according to FactSet. And the estimated earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies in aggregate stood at 30.9%, compared to about 40% from the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>本财报季到目前为止，企业利润仍然强劲，尽管与前几个季度相比有所放缓。FactSet的数据显示，截至周五，84%的标普500公司已公布第四季度实际盈利结果。标普500公司整体盈利增长率预计为30.9%，而第三季度约为40%。</blockquote></p><p>Still, the estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter has trended continuously higher as more companies reported better-than-expected results. On December 31, the estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter had been at just 21.2%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，随着更多公司公布好于预期的业绩，第四季度的预计盈利增长率持续走高。截至12月31日，预计第四季度盈利增长率仅为21.2%。</blockquote></p><p>But while results for many companies have been positive for the final three months of 2021, outlooks have weakened, reflecting lingering supply chain uncertainty, rising prices and other macro concerns. FactSet noted that of companies that held their earnings conference calls between Dec. 15 and Feb. 17, 72% of the corporations mentioned "inflation."</p><p><blockquote>但是，尽管许多公司在2021年最后三个月的业绩都是积极的，但前景已经减弱，反映出挥之不去的供应链不确定性、价格上涨和其他宏观担忧。FactSet指出，在12月15日至2月17日期间在评级举行财报会议的公司中，72%的公司提到了“通货膨胀”。</blockquote></p><p>"In terms of earnings guidance from corporations, 71% of the S&P 500 companies (55 out of 77) that have issued EPS [earnings per share] guidance for Q1 2022 have issued negative guidance," FactSet's John Butters wrote in a note Friday. "This is the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative guidance since Q3 2019 (73%)."</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的John Butters在周五的一份报告中写道：“就企业盈利指引而言，在发布2022年第一季度EPS（每股收益）指引的标普500公司中，71%（77家中的55家）发布了负面指引。”“这是自2019年第三季度（73%）以来发布负面指引的标普500公司比例最高的一次。”</blockquote></p><p>"Thus, the market may be reacting more to the negative earnings guidance and downward estimates revisions for the first quarter of 2022 than the earnings surprises being reported for the fourth-quarter of 2021," Butters added.</p><p><blockquote>巴特斯补充道：“因此，市场对2022年第一季度的负面盈利指引和下调预期的反应可能比对2021年第四季度报告的意外盈利反应更大。”</blockquote></p><p><h2>Economic calendar</h2><ul><li><b>Monday: </b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><h2>经济日历</h2><ul><li><b>星期一：</b><i>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li><li><b>Tuesday: </b>FHFA House Price Index, December (1.1% expected, 1.1% in November); S&P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a> Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, December month-over-month (1.10% expected, 1.18% in November); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, December year-over-year (18.30% expected, 18.29% in November); <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> U.S. Manufacturing PMI, February preliminary (56.0 expected, 55.5 in January); Markit U.S. Services PMI, February preliminary (53.0 expected, 51.2 in January); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, February preliminary (51.1 in January); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, February (110.0 expected, 113.8 in January); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, February (10 expected, 8 in January)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>FHFA房价指数，12月（预期1.1%，11月1.1%）；标准普尔<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">核心逻辑</a>Case-Shiller 20城综合指数，12月环比（预期1.10%，11月1.18%）；S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20城市综合指数，12月同比（预期18.30%，11月18.29%）；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>美国2月制造业PMI初值（预期56.0，1月55.5）；Markit美国服务业PMI，2月初值（预期53.0，1月51.2）；Markit美国2月综合PMI初值（1月为51.1）；世界大型企业联合会2月消费者信心指数（预期110.0，1月113.8）；2月里士满联储制造业指数（预期10，1月8）</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li><b>Wednesday: </b>MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended February 18 (-5.4% during prior week)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>截至2月18日当周的MBA抵押贷款申请（前一周为-5.4%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li><b>Thursday: </b>Chicago Fed National Activity Index, January (-0.15 in December); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q second estimate (7.0% expected, 6.9% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, 4Q second estimate (3.3% expected, 3.3% in prior estimate); Core PCE quarter-over-quarter, 4Q second estimate (4.9% expected, 4.9% in prior estimate); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, February (24 in January)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>芝加哥联储全国活动指数，1月（12月-0.15）；GDP年化、环比、第四季度第二次预估（预期7.0%，之前预估6.9%）；个人消费，第四季度第二次估计（预期3.3%，之前估计3.3%）；核心PCE环比，第四季度第二次预估（预期4.9%，之前预估4.9%）；堪萨斯城联储2月制造业活动（1月24日）</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li><b>Friday: </b>Personal income, January (-0.4%, 0.3% in December); Personal spending, January (1.5% expected, -0.6% in December); Durable Goods Orders, January preliminary (0.9% -0.7% in December); Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation, January preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.6% in December); PCE deflator, January year-over-year (6.0% expected, 5.8% in December); PCE deflator, January month-over-month (0.6% expected, 0.4% in December); PCE core deflator, January year-over-year (5.2% expected, 4.9% in December); PCE core deflator, January month-over-month (0.5% expected, 0.5% in December)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b>个人收入，1月（-0.4%，12月0.3%）；个人支出，1月（预期1.5%，12月-0.6%）；耐用品订单，1月初步（12月0.9%-0.7%）；不包括运输的耐用品订单，1月初步（预期0.3%，12月0.6%）；PCE平减指数，1月同比（预期6.0%，12月5.8%）；PCE平减指数，1月环比（预期0.6%，12月0.4%）；PCE核心平减指数，1月同比（预期5.2%，12月4.9%）；PCE核心平减指数，1月环比（预期0.5%，12月0.5%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li></ul><h2>Earnings calendar</h2><h2></h2><b>Monday</b></p><p><blockquote><h2>盈利日历</h2><h2></h2><b>周一</b></blockquote></p><p><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><i>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</i></blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>周二</b></blockquote></p><p>Before market open: Apache Corp. (APA), Home Depot (HD), Tempur Sealy International (TPX), Macy's (M)</p><p><blockquote>开市前：阿帕奇公司(APA)、家得宝(HD)、泰普尔丝涟国际(TPX)、梅西百货(M)</blockquote></p><p></p><p>After market close: Caesar's Entertainment (CZR), Agilent Technologies (A), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANG\">Diamondback Energy</a> (FANG), The Mosaic Co. (MOS), Toll Brothers (TOL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a> (PANW), Teladoc Health (TDOC)</p><p><blockquote>收盘后：凯撒娱乐（CZR）、安捷伦科技（A）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANG\">响尾蛇能源公司</a>(FANG)、The Mosaic Co.(MOS)、Toll Brothers(TOL)、维珍银河(SPCE)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">帕洛阿尔托网络</a>(PANW)、Teladoc Health(TDOC)</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三</b></blockquote></p><p>Before market open: Lowe's (LOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OSTK\">Overstock.com</a> (OSTK), The TJX Cos. (TJX), Cerner Corp. (CERN)</p><p><blockquote>开盘前：劳氏(LOW)，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OSTK\">Overstock.com</a>（OSTK），TJX公司。(TJX)，塞尔纳公司(CERN)</blockquote></p><p>After market close: Hertz (HTZ), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> (EBAY), Revolve Group Inc. (RVLV), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> (BKNG), FuboTV (FUBO), Allbirds (BIRD), Bath and Body Works (BBWI), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation Entertainment</a> (LYV), The Real Real (REAL), Lemonade (LMND)</p><p><blockquote>收盘后：赫兹（HTZ），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>(EBAY)、Revolve Group Inc.(RVLV)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">预订控股</a>(BKNG)、FuboTV(FUBO)、Allbirds(BIRD)、Bath and Body Works(BBWI)、Chesapeake Energy(CHK)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">现场国家娱乐</a>(LYV)、真实真实(REAL)、柠檬水(LMND)</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四</b></blockquote></p><p>Before market open: Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Newmont Corp. (NEM), SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS), Moderna (MRNA), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Nikola (NKLA), Wayfair (W), Six Flags Entertainment (SIX), Discovery Inc. (DISCA), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY)</p><p><blockquote>开市前：Keurig Dr.Pepper(KDP)、Newmont Corp.(NEM)、SeaWorld Entertainment(SEAS)、Moderna(MRNA)、Planet Fitness(PLNT)、Nikola(NKLA)、Wayfair(W)、六旗娱乐(SIX)、探索公司(DISCA)、挪威邮轮控股(NCLH)、西方石油公司(OXY)</blockquote></p><p>After market close: Intuit (INTU), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Autodesk (ADSK), Coinbase (COIN), Dell Technologies (DELL), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ2.AU\">Block Inc.</a> (SQ), Zscaler (ZS), Rocket Cos. (RKT), VMWare (VMW), Etsy (ETSY), Beyond Meat (BYND), Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST)</p><p><blockquote>收盘后：Intuit(INTU)、Opendoor Technologies(OPEN)、Autodesk(ADSK)、Coinbase(COIN)、戴尔科技(DELL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ2.AU\">布洛克公司。</a>(SQ)、Zscaler(ZS)、Rocket Cos。(RKT)、VMWare(VMW)、Etsy(ETSY)、Beyond Meat(BYND)、Monster Beverage Corp.(MNST)</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五</b></blockquote></p><p><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><i>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</i></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pce-inflation-consumer-confidence-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-164350893.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4139":"生物科技","KDP":"Keurig Dr Pepper Inc","M":"梅西百货","BK4562":"SPAC上市公司","SPCE":"维珍银河","BK4125":"广播","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4121":"生命科学工具和服务","HD":"家得宝","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","PLNT":"Planet Fitness Inc","A":"安捷伦科技","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4177":"软饮料","LOW":"劳氏","HTZ":"赫兹租车","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","FANG":"Diamondback Energy","DISCA":"探索传播","BK4095":"家庭装饰品","BK4517":"邮轮概念","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF","BK4094":"服装零售","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4149":"建筑机械与重型卡车","MOS":"美国美盛","BK4097":"系统软件","APA":"阿帕契","BK4524":"宅经济概念","ZS":"Zscaler Inc.","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4560":"网络安全概念","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","BK4150":"赌场与赌博","BK4022":"陆运",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BBWI":"Bath & Body Works Inc.","OXY":"西方石油","TJX":"The TJX Companies Inc.","BK4107":"财产与意外伤害保险","CZR":"凯撒娱乐","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pce-inflation-consumer-confidence-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-164350893.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213670409","content_text":"After stocks endured a second straight week of selling last week, investors will be looking to a slate of fresh economic and earnings data as a catalyst for a potential reprieve.The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Presidents Day holiday, so new data releases will be consolidated to the later part of the week. And updates on tensions in Russia and Ukraine will also remain in focus throughout the week after stocks sank to their lowest levels in a month on Friday, amid concerns about the escalating geopolitical conflict.While the emerging threat of military conflict has overshadowed many other worries in the markets, inflation has still remained a central issue for investors. Inflation has implications both in informing the speed at which the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, and the extent to which consumers pull back on spending and slow overall economic activity in response to rising prices.\"I really think most of the Russia-Ukraine volatility occurred in the energy space, particularly with oil. I think the rest of the volatility in the broader market has to do with the Fed tightening conversation,\" Frances Stacy, Optimal Capital director of strategy, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We're looking at this sort of aggressive tightening against this backdrop of inflation, and I think that that's what's causing the volatility.\"On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator, offering a fresh print on the extent of price increases across the recovering economy.Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in January, according to Bloomberg data, accelerating from December's 0.4% increase. This would represent a 14th consecutive monthly increase, and bring the index up by 6.0% on a year-over-year basis. This, in turn, would mark the fastest increase since 1982, and also accelerate from December's 5.8% annual rise.The core PCE index — the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation stripping out volatile food and energy prices — likely also ramped compared to December's index. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.2% increase in core PCE in January, compared to December's 4.9% rise.Expectations for the latest inflation print suggest the economy has still not yet seen the peak in price increases. And increasingly, central bank officials have come around to the notion that inflation has remained stickier than previously expected, especially as supply chain issues and virus-related disruptions persist.\"Since the December meeting, I would say that the inflation situation is about the same but probably slightly worse,\" Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a January press conference. \"I’d be inclined to raise my own estimate of 2022 core PCE inflation ... by a few tenths today.\"And the latest print on PCE will likely reaffirm readings from other closely watched inflation prints. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 7.5% year-over-year to represent the largest increase since 1982, accelerating markedly from the 7.0% increase from December. And on the producer side, wholesale prices jumped 9.7% year-on-year in January, ticking down only slightly from December's record increase of 9.8%.Consumer confidenceDespite the mounting inflationary pressures, however, consumers have largely continued to spend. Retail sales rose by a better-than-expected 3.8% in January, marking the biggest jump since March 2021 and exceeding estimates.And this steady consumption has come even as consumers increasingly cited inflation as a key concern for their own personal finances. Average hourly wages have also climbed in recent months, but have still not kept pace with inflation.\"The resilience of spending stands in stark contrast to the slump in consumer confidence, with households upping their purchases of big ticket items while simultaneously reporting that now is a particularly bad time to make those purchases,\" Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note. \"The surge in inflation is the root cause of consumer angst. Sentiment should improve as inflation falls back later this year, but the current weakness is a reminder that real consumption growth will be muted this year.\"The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will help provide a timely snapshot of consumers' thinking following the latest spike in prices at the beginning of the year. Consensus economists are looking for the index to fall to 110.0 for February, which would mark the lowest level since September 2021, when the Delta variant had weighed on consumers' outlooks. The consumer confidence index had been at 113.8 in January.Earnings season rolls onInvestors will also receive a number of new earnings results this week, with major retailers including Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Macy's (M) and The TJX Cos. (TJX) reporting alongside other closely watched names from Coinbase (COIN) to Wayfair (W) and Nikola (NKLA).So far this earnings season, corporate profits have remained robust, albeit while slowing compared to prior quarters. As of Friday, 84% of S&P 500 companies had reported actual fourth-quarter earnings results, according to FactSet. And the estimated earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies in aggregate stood at 30.9%, compared to about 40% from the third quarter.Still, the estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter has trended continuously higher as more companies reported better-than-expected results. On December 31, the estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter had been at just 21.2%.But while results for many companies have been positive for the final three months of 2021, outlooks have weakened, reflecting lingering supply chain uncertainty, rising prices and other macro concerns. FactSet noted that of companies that held their earnings conference calls between Dec. 15 and Feb. 17, 72% of the corporations mentioned \"inflation.\"\"In terms of earnings guidance from corporations, 71% of the S&P 500 companies (55 out of 77) that have issued EPS [earnings per share] guidance for Q1 2022 have issued negative guidance,\" FactSet's John Butters wrote in a note Friday. \"This is the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative guidance since Q3 2019 (73%).\"\"Thus, the market may be reacting more to the negative earnings guidance and downward estimates revisions for the first quarter of 2022 than the earnings surprises being reported for the fourth-quarter of 2021,\" Butters added.Economic calendarMonday: No notable reports scheduled for releaseTuesday: FHFA House Price Index, December (1.1% expected, 1.1% in November); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, December month-over-month (1.10% expected, 1.18% in November); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, December year-over-year (18.30% expected, 18.29% in November); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, February preliminary (56.0 expected, 55.5 in January); Markit U.S. Services PMI, February preliminary (53.0 expected, 51.2 in January); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, February preliminary (51.1 in January); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, February (110.0 expected, 113.8 in January); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, February (10 expected, 8 in January)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended February 18 (-5.4% during prior week)Thursday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, January (-0.15 in December); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q second estimate (7.0% expected, 6.9% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, 4Q second estimate (3.3% expected, 3.3% in prior estimate); Core PCE quarter-over-quarter, 4Q second estimate (4.9% expected, 4.9% in prior estimate); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, February (24 in January)Friday: Personal income, January (-0.4%, 0.3% in December); Personal spending, January (1.5% expected, -0.6% in December); Durable Goods Orders, January preliminary (0.9% -0.7% in December); Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation, January preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.6% in December); PCE deflator, January year-over-year (6.0% expected, 5.8% in December); PCE deflator, January month-over-month (0.6% expected, 0.4% in December); PCE core deflator, January year-over-year (5.2% expected, 4.9% in December); PCE core deflator, January month-over-month (0.5% expected, 0.5% in December)Earnings calendarMondayNo notable reports scheduled for releaseTuesdayBefore market open: Apache Corp. (APA), Home Depot (HD), Tempur Sealy International (TPX), Macy's (M)After market close: Caesar's Entertainment (CZR), Agilent Technologies (A), Diamondback Energy (FANG), The Mosaic Co. (MOS), Toll Brothers (TOL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Teladoc Health (TDOC)WednesdayBefore market open: Lowe's (LOW), Overstock.com (OSTK), The TJX Cos. (TJX), Cerner Corp. (CERN)After market close: Hertz (HTZ), eBay (EBAY), Revolve Group Inc. (RVLV), Booking Holdings (BKNG), FuboTV (FUBO), Allbirds (BIRD), Bath and Body Works (BBWI), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), The Real Real (REAL), Lemonade (LMND)ThursdayBefore market open: Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Newmont Corp. (NEM), SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS), Moderna (MRNA), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Nikola (NKLA), Wayfair (W), Six Flags Entertainment (SIX), Discovery Inc. (DISCA), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY)After market close: Intuit (INTU), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Autodesk (ADSK), Coinbase (COIN), Dell Technologies (DELL), Block Inc. (SQ), Zscaler (ZS), Rocket Cos. (RKT), VMWare (VMW), Etsy (ETSY), Beyond Meat (BYND), Monster Beverage Corp. 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