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@牛万的投资策略：黄金节点：2022年10月8日-牛万日记

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<p><strong>Fed</strong>目前路径<strong>-</strong>高名义利率，且明显看到通胀数据下来之前，甚至下来一段时间内，都不会转向。因此不能过早押注<strong>fed</strong>转向交易。</p> <p>名义收益率长端：非农数据、经济数据强劲，市场对美国衰退预期正在减弱。</p> <p>名义收益率短端：美债<strong>3</strong>月期<strong>3.3</strong>，长短端利率曲线收敛后再次走廓。</p> <p>预期未来市场将多次在<strong>fed</strong>拳头“紧”和“不那么紧”间押注。利率市场趋于宽幅震荡。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0a6fb01dcd60c4981d97449102ea668\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"668\"></p> <p>通胀：<strong>wti</strong>油价开启反弹，<strong>76</strong>低位本周上攻至<strong>93</strong>美金，预期<strong>100</strong>美金会突破后震荡。等待下次下跌带动的金价下行空间。薪资收入美国9月平均每小时工资年率 5%，预期5.1%，前值5.20%见顶回落。通胀大概率继续下行。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7996d16192d957bdf27f6ac3c1567b11\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"452\"></p> <p><strong>二、技术面&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><strong>Xauusd</strong>低位日线级别反弹<strong>100</strong>美金后，<strong>60</strong>、<strong>43</strong>日压力位回撤，目前日线级别<strong>macd</strong>反拐，成交量放大，但<strong>cci</strong>仍然处于强势。周线级别仍然处于空头<strong>buy</strong>点，但无基本面支撑，继续上行概率较小。（本次反弹以美债、原油、过于悲观的多头情绪引发。）</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fadba068682347d389b5cb7619b025ab\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"305\"></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8902040ce91cc82c112308309ad246e\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"309\"></p> <p><strong>三、情绪面&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>十一后的一周，<strong>dxy</strong>开始走弱，美债、油反弹带动黄金反弹，后美债回撤黄金跟随油继续反弹，且情绪面为下跌后的第三波（多头恐慌），本轮反弹到<strong>9</strong>月<strong>9</strong>日多头情绪起点，动能消失，在<strong>fed</strong>继续加息且不松拳的情况下，通胀出现缓慢见顶下行迹象。市场衰退预期逐渐消退。空头投机仓位加大。继续不利于<strong>xauusd</strong>后续走势。</p> <p>外围利空环境：非美国家加息。</p> <p>故：可能这是最后一次看到<strong>1700</strong>以上的黄金。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22e444e43e3e4c14a84d302c2a87b969\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"258\"></p> <p><strong>下周操作：</strong></p> <p>周线反弹、日线回拐。以空头震荡为主。日内空头布局为主。等待再次下杀。</p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2212(GCmain)$</a>&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>一、基本面&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><strong>Fed</strong>目前路径<strong>-</strong>高名义利率，且明显看到通胀数据下来之前，甚至下来一段时间内，都不会转向。因此不能过早押注<strong>fed</strong>转向交易。</p> <p>名义收益率长端：非农数据、经济数据强劲，市场对美国衰退预期正在减弱。</p> <p>名义收益率短端：美债<strong>3</strong>月期<strong>3.3</strong>，长短端利率曲线收敛后再次走廓。</p> <p>预期未来市场将多次在<strong>fed</strong>拳头“紧”和“不那么紧”间押注。利率市场趋于宽幅震荡。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0a6fb01dcd60c4981d97449102ea668\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"668\"></p> <p>通胀：<strong>wti</strong>油价开启反弹，<strong>76</strong>低位本周上攻至<strong>93</strong>美金，预期<strong>100</strong>美金会突破后震荡。等待下次下跌带动的金价下行空间。薪资收入美国9月平均每小时工资年率 5%，预期5.1%，前值5.20%见顶回落。通胀大概率继续下行。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7996d16192d957bdf27f6ac3c1567b11\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"452\"></p> <p><strong>二、技术面&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><strong>Xauusd</strong>低位日线级别反弹<strong>100</strong>美金后，<strong>60</strong>、<strong>43</strong>日压力位回撤，目前日线级别<strong>macd</strong>反拐，成交量放大，但<strong>cci</strong>仍然处于强势。周线级别仍然处于空头<strong>buy</strong>点，但无基本面支撑，继续上行概率较小。（本次反弹以美债、原油、过于悲观的多头情绪引发。）</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fadba068682347d389b5cb7619b025ab\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"305\"></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8902040ce91cc82c112308309ad246e\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"309\"></p> <p><strong>三、情绪面&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>十一后的一周，<strong>dxy</strong>开始走弱，美债、油反弹带动黄金反弹，后美债回撤黄金跟随油继续反弹，且情绪面为下跌后的第三波（多头恐慌），本轮反弹到<strong>9</strong>月<strong>9</strong>日多头情绪起点，动能消失，在<strong>fed</strong>继续加息且不松拳的情况下，通胀出现缓慢见顶下行迹象。市场衰退预期逐渐消退。空头投机仓位加大。继续不利于<strong>xauusd</strong>后续走势。</p> <p>外围利空环境：非美国家加息。</p> <p>故：可能这是最后一次看到<strong>1700</strong>以上的黄金。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22e444e43e3e4c14a84d302c2a87b969\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"258\"></p> <p><strong>下周操作：</strong></p> <p>周线反弹、日线回拐。以空头震荡为主。日内空头布局为主。等待再次下杀。</p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2212(GCmain)$</a>&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"一、基本面 Fed目前路径-高名义利率，且明显看到通胀数据下来之前，甚至下来一段时间内，都不会转向。因此不能过早押注fed转向交易。 名义收益率长端：非农数据、经济数据强劲，市场对美国衰退预期正在减弱。 名义收益率短端：美债3月期3.3，长短端利率曲线收敛后再次走廓。 预期未来市场将多次在fed拳头“紧”和“不那么紧”间押注。利率市场趋于宽幅震荡。 通胀：wti油价开启反弹，76低位本周上攻至93美金，预期100美金会突破后震荡。等待下次下跌带动的金价下行空间。薪资收入美国9月平均每小时工资年率 5%，预期5.1%，前值5.20%见顶回落。通胀大概率继续下行。 二、技术面 Xauusd低位日线级别反弹100美金后，60、43日压力位回撤，目前日线级别macd反拐，成交量放大，但cci仍然处于强势。周线级别仍然处于空头buy点，但无基本面支撑，继续上行概率较小。（本次反弹以美债、原油、过于悲观的多头情绪引发。） 三、情绪面 十一后的一周，dxy开始走弱，美债、油反弹带动黄金反弹，后美债回撤黄金跟随油继续反弹，且情绪面为下跌后的第三波（多头恐慌），本轮反弹到9月9日多头情绪起点，动能消失，在fed继续加息且不松拳的情况下，通胀出现缓慢见顶下行迹象。市场衰退预期逐渐消退。空头投机仓位加大。继续不利于xauusd后续走势。 外围利空环境：非美国家加息。 故：可能这是最后一次看到1700以上的黄金。 下周操作： 周线反弹、日线回拐。以空头震荡为主。日内空头布局为主。等待再次下杀。 $黄金主连 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