Watching o_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2022-01-19

Watching oil price at this stage. With economies slowly why is oil price still going up?

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

EricVaughan
2022-01-23
EricVaughan
Because oil prices are determined by international relations. Only when oil prices are stable will the world economy be stable.
EvelynHoover
2022-01-23
EvelynHoover
由于石油价格是由市场供求关系决定的，不是轻易就能改变的。
ElsieDewey
2022-01-23
ElsieDewey
Because oil prices are crucial to the stability of the global economy.
PagRobinson
2022-01-23
PagRobinson
因为各国印了太多的钱，造成了通货膨胀。

发表看法

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原油的近期逻辑主要围绕“供给缺口”展开的，这就注定了利好油价的方向。OPEC在过去一个月两次预测奥密克戎影响有限，而多个OPEC+产油国的实际产量未能达到计划产出，进一步加剧了市场“油不够”的担心。 从价格行为来看，周线和月线图上原油多头都保持了不错的势头，下一个主要的目标会指向90附近的趋势线压制，如果能够突破则势必会测试100整数水平。当然目前的日线图时间周期暗示在前高附近可能会存在一些反复和争夺，但前期77突破口完好的情况下，趋势并不会轻易发生改变。65/66则是中长期趋势的转折点，此前一度受到考验，但最终挺过来了。短期交易如果有机会可以围绕77/78进行一些低吸的尝试。 与油价相对应的美股指近一段时间走势相对一般，关于加息的话题困扰了上行的节奏。但一如之前所说的那样，标普为参考，维持在4493上方交投的情况下，慢牛就还在，目标依然指向4900/5000水平。考虑到这个目标位置并不太远，因此此处就不建议多美股指空原油的策略了。当然这两者长期来看肯定是正相关性的关系。 另外一个值得关注并且支持市场积极的信号来自于美元和黄金。在去年末的直播中，我们曾经聊过逻辑关系：美元&黄金负相关性的情况下，市场大概率risk-on，两者正向运行的情况下， 风险资产面临压力。 过去数周黄金基本处于一个范围内的震荡，波动率进一步下行。美元则在欧元反弹的环境下，上周出现短期破位情况，市场有较大的概率重新回到93.5/94区间的前期双底颈线突破口进行回踩。这个位置是可以考虑低吸或者关注市场行为的。另外需要说的是，黄金的三角形区间随着时间推演正在变得越来越窄，未来数周或许就能看到方向性的选择。如果不像预期的那样向上突破的话，我们会考虑是否需要平多头或者转向，这个到时候再看。 整体来看，从现在到农历新年的一段时间内，市场大概率维持积极正面的情绪。风险资产有望取得进一步的震荡上行，目前还没有看到明显的趋势改变的迹象。在车上的投资者朋友继续安心持有，下车的朋友也不要轻易尝试抄顶。等待市场消息面或者基本面出现显著的转变，再做调整也来得及。 $微黄金主连 2202(MGCmain)$ $黄金主连 2202(GCmain)$ $NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ $WTI原油主连 2202(CLmain)$ $A50指数主连 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