ngckkk
2021-07-31
Intel need alot of catchup to do
Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote>
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But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115580649","media":"Barron's","summary":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and recl","content":"<p>Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官表示，该公司将获得下一代全球最令人垂涎的芯片制造机器的使用权，并在 2025 年前夺回其技术领先地位。他认为公司的价值可以 “翻三倍、翻四倍”。我五分好奇，四分之一信服。</blockquote></p><p> This past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”</p><p><blockquote>上周，自二月份以来一直担任英特尔（股票代码：INTC）负责人的帕特-基尔辛格（Pat Gelsinger）接受了挑战，向一个认为医生有时会挤出来的人解释他的 “节点 ”四年计划。原来，他们也是芯片制造一代，基辛格计划与他们中的许多人竞争。“他告诉我：”英特尔太傲慢了。“我们正在迅速分解这一点”。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>投资银行雷蒙德·詹姆斯预测，今年，英特尔将出售 85% 的所谓客户端计算芯片，包括笔记本电脑等。这将在两年内下降 7 个百分点，而竞争对手 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 的涨幅也一样快。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.</p><p><blockquote>服务器的趋势也类似。评论网站 Tom's Hardware 和 AnandTech 称，英特尔最新的服务器芯片有了很大的进步，但 AMD 在性能方面仍然领先。大型组织和数据中心的买家规避风险，重视支持和长期经验，不仅仅是性价比，但这不会永远减缓英特尔的份额损失。与此同时，个人电脑领域的下滑被 Covid-19 家庭办公室购买量的激增所抵消，但这种情况可能会改变。</blockquote></p><p> How did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔是如何落后的？它进行了全有或全无的技术赌注，导致了死胡同，而竞争对手则进行了频繁的、渐进式的改进。它采用了一种称为极紫外光刻（EUV）的新制造技术，该技术比传统光刻技术在硅中塞入了更多的电路。</blockquote></p><p> And it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>它对权力转向台积电（TSM）等代工厂的反应可能很慢。台积电不仅仅是接受命令。其营业利润率是 AMD 的两倍。所以，英特尔一直在设计和制造两线作战。</blockquote></p><p> There have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.</p><p><blockquote>还有其他更长的轮班。计算能力已经迁移到云端，所以我们可以用更长时间的个人机器。像人工智能这样的高级应用有利于高度并行处理，就像视频游戏一样；英伟达（NVDA）将其长期的成功转化为数据中心的财富。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.</p><p><blockquote>股市的判断是严峻的。十年前，英特尔的市值为 1180 亿美元，比台积电、英伟达和 AMD 的总和高出 400 亿美元。现在，英特尔的市值接近2200亿美元，但其他公司加起来只有1.1万亿美元。经过股票回购和股息后，英特尔投资者在此期间的收益超过 220%。但他们的标准普尔 500 指数本可以上涨近 100 点，或者 PHLX 半导体指数本可以上涨 700 点。</blockquote></p><p> A positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.</p><p><blockquote>一个积极的迹象是，近年来离开英特尔的顶级工程师正在回归。“盖尔辛格说：”他们感受到了魔力的回归。但这需要的不仅仅是魔法。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官表示，目前他将部分依赖外部代工厂，同时建立一个为其他芯片制造商提供服务的代工厂。亚利桑那州的两家新工厂正在建设中，耗资 200 亿美元，这还不包括设备。据报道，该公司还就以 300 亿美元收购 GlobalFoundries 进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，基尔辛格说：“随着时间的推移，会有整合，我们将成为整合者”。</blockquote></p><p> Now, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.</p><p><blockquote>现在来说说这些节点： 英特尔一直使用不断缩小的长度来命名它们，比如 “10 纳米”。这些数字用于指特定的晶体管部件，但在现代架构中，芯片制造商一直在随意抛出测量值。所以，从现在开始，这只是数字： 今年晚些时候的英特尔 7，然后是 4，然后是 3。然后是英特尔 20A 和 18A，让人想起 “埃时代”。埃是纳米的十分之一，那么这些名字会基于测量结果吗？不：它们只是为了营销。为了清晰起见，我给新的命名方案打了4分，从橙色到圆周率。</blockquote></p><p> The new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.</p><p><blockquote>然而，新的节点映射不仅仅是一个重命名。提议的芯片改进将是快速和稳定的。英特尔将从明年的批次开始采用 EUV。2024 年，该公司将进行十多年来的首次重大架构变革，并表示将在性能上赶上竞争对手。第二年，它将通过竞争，转向 EUV 的继任者 high-NA EUV。NA代表数值孔径，但它可以代表牛轧糖和杏仁，只要性能增益像承诺的那样大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.<i>Barron’s</i>has been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.</p><p><blockquote>多头和空头都认为该计划是激进的。看空者说，这将花费太多，结果要几年才能知道，而且从现在到那时，英特尔将继续失去市场份额。看涨者表示，英特尔将稳定其份额，而风险反映在其股价是今年预计收益的 11 倍，约为大盘价格的一半。<i>巴伦</i>一直在推动英特尔的重塑工作。犹豫不决的投资者可能希望等到11月，届时英特尔将召开分析师会议，并可能为其计划定价。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.</p><p><blockquote>大量资金将用于设备。EUV 机器由 ASML Holding (ASML) 制造，该公司现在拥有巨大的实力。“看好英特尔的 Needham 分析师奎因-博尔顿（Quinn Bolton）说：”如果 ASML 想要决定代工领域的市场份额，那么它将这些制造位置分配给谁将产生相当大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”</p><p><blockquote>基辛格说他现在有他需要的EUV机器。关于 high-NA 以及他与 ASML 的合同关系，他说：“我们将成为这些工具的首批生产用户”。</blockquote></p><p> ASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>正如你所想象的那样，ASML 的股价距离天堂还差一埃，是今年盈利预测的 48 倍。EUV 机器的买家也需要其他公司的齿轮。博尔顿最喜欢的股票投资者是应用材料公司（AMAT）。多年来，它的价格已经翻了五倍，但市盈率仍然是普通的 20 倍左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 07:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官表示，该公司将获得下一代全球最令人垂涎的芯片制造机器的使用权，并在 2025 年前夺回其技术领先地位。他认为公司的价值可以 “翻三倍、翻四倍”。我五分好奇，四分之一信服。</blockquote></p><p> This past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”</p><p><blockquote>上周，自二月份以来一直担任英特尔（股票代码：INTC）负责人的帕特-基尔辛格（Pat Gelsinger）接受了挑战，向一个认为医生有时会挤出来的人解释他的 “节点 ”四年计划。原来，他们也是芯片制造一代，基辛格计划与他们中的许多人竞争。“他告诉我：”英特尔太傲慢了。“我们正在迅速分解这一点”。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>投资银行雷蒙德·詹姆斯预测，今年，英特尔将出售 85% 的所谓客户端计算芯片，包括笔记本电脑等。这将在两年内下降 7 个百分点，而竞争对手 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 的涨幅也一样快。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.</p><p><blockquote>服务器的趋势也类似。评论网站 Tom's Hardware 和 AnandTech 称，英特尔最新的服务器芯片有了很大的进步，但 AMD 在性能方面仍然领先。大型组织和数据中心的买家规避风险，重视支持和长期经验，不仅仅是性价比，但这不会永远减缓英特尔的份额损失。与此同时，个人电脑领域的下滑被 Covid-19 家庭办公室购买量的激增所抵消，但这种情况可能会改变。</blockquote></p><p> How did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔是如何落后的？它进行了全有或全无的技术赌注，导致了死胡同，而竞争对手则进行了频繁的、渐进式的改进。它采用了一种称为极紫外光刻（EUV）的新制造技术，该技术比传统光刻技术在硅中塞入了更多的电路。</blockquote></p><p> And it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>它对权力转向台积电（TSM）等代工厂的反应可能很慢。台积电不仅仅是接受命令。其营业利润率是 AMD 的两倍。所以，英特尔一直在设计和制造两线作战。</blockquote></p><p> There have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.</p><p><blockquote>还有其他更长的轮班。计算能力已经迁移到云端，所以我们可以用更长时间的个人机器。像人工智能这样的高级应用有利于高度并行处理，就像视频游戏一样；英伟达（NVDA）将其长期的成功转化为数据中心的财富。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.</p><p><blockquote>股市的判断是严峻的。十年前，英特尔的市值为 1180 亿美元，比台积电、英伟达和 AMD 的总和高出 400 亿美元。现在，英特尔的市值接近2200亿美元，但其他公司加起来只有1.1万亿美元。经过股票回购和股息后，英特尔投资者在此期间的收益超过 220%。但他们的标准普尔 500 指数本可以上涨近 100 点，或者 PHLX 半导体指数本可以上涨 700 点。</blockquote></p><p> A positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.</p><p><blockquote>一个积极的迹象是，近年来离开英特尔的顶级工程师正在回归。“盖尔辛格说：”他们感受到了魔力的回归。但这需要的不仅仅是魔法。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官表示，目前他将部分依赖外部代工厂，同时建立一个为其他芯片制造商提供服务的代工厂。亚利桑那州的两家新工厂正在建设中，耗资 200 亿美元，这还不包括设备。据报道，该公司还就以 300 亿美元收购 GlobalFoundries 进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，基尔辛格说：“随着时间的推移，会有整合，我们将成为整合者”。</blockquote></p><p> Now, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.</p><p><blockquote>现在来说说这些节点： 英特尔一直使用不断缩小的长度来命名它们，比如 “10 纳米”。这些数字用于指特定的晶体管部件，但在现代架构中，芯片制造商一直在随意抛出测量值。所以，从现在开始，这只是数字： 今年晚些时候的英特尔 7，然后是 4，然后是 3。然后是英特尔 20A 和 18A，让人想起 “埃时代”。埃是纳米的十分之一，那么这些名字会基于测量结果吗？不：它们只是为了营销。为了清晰起见，我给新的命名方案打了4分，从橙色到圆周率。</blockquote></p><p> The new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.</p><p><blockquote>然而，新的节点映射不仅仅是一个重命名。提议的芯片改进将是快速和稳定的。英特尔将从明年的批次开始采用 EUV。2024 年，该公司将进行十多年来的首次重大架构变革，并表示将在性能上赶上竞争对手。第二年，它将通过竞争，转向 EUV 的继任者 high-NA EUV。NA代表数值孔径，但它可以代表牛轧糖和杏仁，只要性能增益像承诺的那样大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.<i>Barron’s</i>has been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.</p><p><blockquote>多头和空头都认为该计划是激进的。看空者说，这将花费太多，结果要几年才能知道，而且从现在到那时，英特尔将继续失去市场份额。看涨者表示，英特尔将稳定其份额，而风险反映在其股价是今年预计收益的 11 倍，约为大盘价格的一半。<i>巴伦</i>一直在推动英特尔的重塑工作。犹豫不决的投资者可能希望等到11月，届时英特尔将召开分析师会议，并可能为其计划定价。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.</p><p><blockquote>大量资金将用于设备。EUV 机器由 ASML Holding (ASML) 制造，该公司现在拥有巨大的实力。“看好英特尔的 Needham 分析师奎因-博尔顿（Quinn Bolton）说：”如果 ASML 想要决定代工领域的市场份额，那么它将这些制造位置分配给谁将产生相当大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”</p><p><blockquote>基辛格说他现在有他需要的EUV机器。关于 high-NA 以及他与 ASML 的合同关系，他说：“我们将成为这些工具的首批生产用户”。</blockquote></p><p> ASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>正如你所想象的那样，ASML 的股价距离天堂还差一埃，是今年盈利预测的 48 倍。EUV 机器的买家也需要其他公司的齿轮。博尔顿最喜欢的股票投资者是应用材料公司（AMAT）。多年来，它的价格已经翻了五倍，但市盈率仍然是普通的 20 倍左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/intel-new-ceo-wait-to-buy-stock-51627685968?mod=mw_latestnews&tesla=y\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/intel-new-ceo-wait-to-buy-stock-51627685968?mod=mw_latestnews&tesla=y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115580649","content_text":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.\nThis past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”\nThis year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.\nThe trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.\nHow did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.\nAnd it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.\nThere have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.\nThe stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.\nA positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.\nThe CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.\nSpeaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”\nNow, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.\nThe new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.\nBulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.Barron’shas been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.\nPlenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.\nGelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”\nASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3330,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["INTC"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/802018716"}
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