ngckkk的个人主页 - 老虎社区

ngckkk

ngckkk

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

3关注

14粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-08-22

expecting a dip in the market

Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔仍然不买账。以下是它的售价。</blockquote>

2021-08-18

buy both!!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-10

Adobe good buy!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-09

alphabet is a no brainer buy!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-07

reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-06

definitely! it's worth at least double the current price!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-02

yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper

Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote>

2021-08-01

Are we gonna see another cathie?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-01

hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-31

Intel need alot of catchup to do

Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote>

2021-07-30

might be due to the saga of meme stocks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-30

amazon will still continue to grow, but maybe at a slower rate.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-28

Nice! go go gme!

GameStop to join S&P MidCap 400 index next week<blockquote>游戏驿站将于下周加入标准普尔中型股 400 指数</blockquote>

2021-07-28

It's a good time to buy convicted chinese stocks! Be greedy when others are fearful

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-25

Both are good stocks to invest in! Just buy both!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-25

Coupang price looks attractive now

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-24

nio seems like a better buy than tsla at the moment

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-24

seems like they're all pretty good buys

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-23

oh dearrr

EV Startup Lucid Risks SPAC Deal Collapse on No-Show Holders<blockquote>电动汽车初创公司 Lucid 因持有人缺席而面临 SPAC 交易失败的风险</blockquote>

2021-07-21

meme stocks are back!! to the moooooon!

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3556014229499035","uuid":"3556014229499035","gmtCreate":1592930740113,"gmtModify":1626749989907,"name":"ngckkk","pinyin":"ngckkk","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":14,"headSize":3,"tweetSize":69,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":3,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.95%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.58%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":832698325,"gmtCreate":1629615278167,"gmtModify":1631889238098,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"expecting a dip in the market&nbsp;","listText":"expecting a dip in the market&nbsp;","text":"expecting a dip in the market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832698325","repostId":"1176431153","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176431153","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629604617,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176431153?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-22 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔仍然不买账。以下是它的售价。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176431153","media":"Barron's","summary":"If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and ","content":"<p>If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and equivalents on an acquisition, you’ll have to wait a little longer—maybe a lot longer. Not only did Berkshire fail to make a significant purchase in the second quarter, but CEO Warren Buffett and his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were net sellers of about $1 billion of stocks in the period, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing.</p><p><blockquote>如果你一直在等待伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司（forBerkshire Hathaway）将其 1440 亿美元现金及等价物中的一大部分用于收购，那么你就得再等一会儿了，也许还要等很久。根据该公司最新的 10-Q 文件，伯克希尔不仅没有在第二季度进行重大收购，而且首席执行官沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）和他的投资副手托德-库姆斯（Todd Combs）和特德-韦施勒（Ted Weschler）在此期间净卖出了约 10 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire pared its stakes in three drug stocks—AbbVie,Bristol-Myers Squibb, andMerck—all acquired in 2020. The company also sold seven millionGeneral Motorsshares in the quarter, cutting its holding to 60 million shares, now worth $3.2 billion. Berkshire trimmed itsChevronposition slightly, and added to its stake in grocerKroger.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔减持了 2020 年收购的艾伯维、百时美施贵宝和默克三只制药股的股份。该公司还在本季度出售了 700 万股通用汽车股票，将其持有量减少至 6000 万股，目前价值 32 亿美元。伯克希尔小幅削减了雪佛龙的持仓，并增持了 grocerKroger 的股份。</blockquote></p><p> There were no changes in its two largest holdings. The company’sApplestake held steady at 887 million shares, now worth $134 billion, andBank of Americastood at 1.01 billion shares, worth $41 billion. Berkshire’s total equity holdings topped $300 billion as of June 30.</p><p><blockquote>其两大持股没有变化。该公司持有的苹果股份稳定在 8.87 亿股，目前价值 1340 亿美元，美国银行持有 10.1 亿股，价值 410 亿美元。截至 6 月 30 日，伯克希尔的总股本持有量超过 3000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> As for its own shares, Berkshire was a buyer, scooping up about $6 billion of stock in each of the past two quarters, or about 1% of the shares outstanding in each period.</p><p><blockquote>至于自己的股票，伯克希尔是买家，在过去两个季度中每个季度都买入了约 60 亿美元的股票，约占每个时期流通股的 1%。</blockquote></p><p> And it wasn’t the only buyer; both share classes are up about 25% this year, ahead of theS&amp;P 500index’s total return of about 20%.</p><p><blockquote>而且它并不是唯一的买家；这两类股票今年都上涨了约 25%，领先于标准普尔 500 指数约 20% 的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Last WeekPre-Tantrum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上周发脾气前</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock indexes finished the week in the red, with the bulk of the week’s selling coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. The S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq Composite,andDow Jones Industrial Averageeach sank close to 2% over those days. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee’s latest meeting, released on Wednesday, showed an active debate among officials about when to begin withdrawing the emergency stimulus in place since March 2020. The Fed could begin reducing its U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases—currently running at a combined $120 billion a month—this fall. The Dow finished the week down 1.1%, at 35,120.08; the S&amp;P lost 0.6%, to 4441.67; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, to 14,714.66.</p><p><blockquote>股指本周收红，本周大部分抛售发生在周二和周三。标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数在那些日子里均下跌了近 2%。美联储货币政策委员会周三公布的最新会议纪要显示，官员们正在就何时开始撤回自2020年3月以来实施的紧急刺激措施展开激烈辩论。美联储可能会在今年秋天开始减少美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买——目前每月总计1200亿美元。道琼斯指数本周收盘下跌 1.1%，至 35,120.08 点；标准普尔指数下跌0.6%，至4441.67点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.7%，至 14,714.66 点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shop Till They Drop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购物直到它们掉落</b></blockquote></p><p> Retailers reported their results for the May-to-July period, their second quarter. The overall picture is of consumers armed with pandemic savings and federal stimulus cash—and eager to spend it.Walmart,Target,Home Depot,Macy’s,and more topped Wall Street’s forecasts for sales and profits in the quarter. (See“Shoppers Are Crowding Malls and Bricks-and-Mortar Stores Again.”)</p><p><blockquote>零售商公布了 5 月至 7 月第二季度的业绩。总体情况是，消费者手持大流行病储蓄和联邦刺激现金，并渴望花掉这些钱.沃尔玛、塔吉特、家得宝、梅西百货等本季度的销售额和利润都超过了华尔街的预测。（参见“购物者再次涌入商场和实体店”。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calling All Hackers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>呼叫所有黑客</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares ofT-Mobile UScame under pressure after reports in the online publication Motherboard that customer data claiming to be from the wireless network operator’s servers was for sale online. T-Mobile later confirmed that there had been unauthorized access to some of the company’s data, including records for roughly 54 million people.</p><p><blockquote>在线出版物 Motherboard 报道称，声称来自无线网络运营商服务器的客户数据正在网上出售，这给 ofT-Mobile UScame 带来了压力。T-Mobile 随后证实，有人未经授权访问了该公司的一些数据，其中包括大约 5400 万人的记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Passing the Baton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>传递接力棒</b></blockquote></p><p> Johnson &amp; Johnsonannounced a surprise CEO transition. Its current chief executive, Alex Gorsky, will hand the reins to Joaquin Duato in January after nine years in charge and three decades at the company, which has a market value of nearly $500 billion. Duato, 59, is currently the vice chairman of J&amp;J’s executive committee. Gorsky, 61, will assume the post of executive chairman, a newly created role, next year.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司宣布出人意料地更换首席执行官。其现任首席执行官亚历克斯·戈尔斯基 (Alex Gorsky) 将于 1 月份将权力移交给华金·杜阿托 (Joaquin Duato)，此前他已掌管这家市值近 5000 亿美元的公司长达 9 年，并在该公司工作了 30 年。现年 59 岁的杜阿托现任强生执行委员会副主席。61岁的戈尔斯基将于明年担任新设立的执行主席一职。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Annals of Deal Making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易年鉴</b></blockquote></p><p> Gene-sequencing firmIlluminaclosed a $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail, which works on early cancer detection. A legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission continues…German logistics firm Deutsche Post will acquire ocean freight-forwarding company J.F. Hillebrand Group for about 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in cash…ToolmakerStanley Black &amp; Deckeragreed to pay $1.6 billion in cash for the 80% of MTD Holdings that it doesn’t already own. MTD makes lawn mowers and other outdoor power tools under the Cub Cadet and Troy-Bilt brands…BHP Groupwill merge its oil-and-gas unit withWoodside Petroleumin an all-stock deal, with its shareholders owning 48%. The miner will also shift its primary stock market listing from London to Sydney.</p><p><blockquote>基因测序公司 Firmillumina 完成了对 Grail 的 71 亿美元收购，该公司致力于早期癌症检测。与联邦贸易委员会的法律战仍在继续……德国物流公司德国邮政将收购海运代理公司J.F。Hillebrand Group 以约 15 亿欧元（18 亿美元）现金收购.工具制造商 Stanley Black &amp; Decker 同意以 16 亿美元现金收购其尚未拥有的 MTD 80% 的股份。MTD 以 Cub Cadet 和 Troy-Bilt 品牌生产割草机和其他户外电动工具……必和必拓集团将以全股票交易的形式将其石油和天然气部门与伍德赛德石油公司合并，其股东持有 48% 的股份。该矿商还将把其主要股票市场上市从伦敦转移到悉尼。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔仍然不买账。以下是它的售价。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔仍然不买账。以下是它的售价。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and equivalents on an acquisition, you’ll have to wait a little longer—maybe a lot longer. Not only did Berkshire fail to make a significant purchase in the second quarter, but CEO Warren Buffett and his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were net sellers of about $1 billion of stocks in the period, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing.</p><p><blockquote>如果你一直在等待伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司（forBerkshire Hathaway）将其 1440 亿美元现金及等价物中的一大部分用于收购，那么你就得再等一会儿了，也许还要等很久。根据该公司最新的 10-Q 文件，伯克希尔不仅没有在第二季度进行重大收购，而且首席执行官沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）和他的投资副手托德-库姆斯（Todd Combs）和特德-韦施勒（Ted Weschler）在此期间净卖出了约 10 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire pared its stakes in three drug stocks—AbbVie,Bristol-Myers Squibb, andMerck—all acquired in 2020. The company also sold seven millionGeneral Motorsshares in the quarter, cutting its holding to 60 million shares, now worth $3.2 billion. Berkshire trimmed itsChevronposition slightly, and added to its stake in grocerKroger.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔减持了 2020 年收购的艾伯维、百时美施贵宝和默克三只制药股的股份。该公司还在本季度出售了 700 万股通用汽车股票，将其持有量减少至 6000 万股，目前价值 32 亿美元。伯克希尔小幅削减了雪佛龙的持仓，并增持了 grocerKroger 的股份。</blockquote></p><p> There were no changes in its two largest holdings. The company’sApplestake held steady at 887 million shares, now worth $134 billion, andBank of Americastood at 1.01 billion shares, worth $41 billion. Berkshire’s total equity holdings topped $300 billion as of June 30.</p><p><blockquote>其两大持股没有变化。该公司持有的苹果股份稳定在 8.87 亿股，目前价值 1340 亿美元，美国银行持有 10.1 亿股，价值 410 亿美元。截至 6 月 30 日，伯克希尔的总股本持有量超过 3000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> As for its own shares, Berkshire was a buyer, scooping up about $6 billion of stock in each of the past two quarters, or about 1% of the shares outstanding in each period.</p><p><blockquote>至于自己的股票，伯克希尔是买家，在过去两个季度中每个季度都买入了约 60 亿美元的股票，约占每个时期流通股的 1%。</blockquote></p><p> And it wasn’t the only buyer; both share classes are up about 25% this year, ahead of theS&amp;P 500index’s total return of about 20%.</p><p><blockquote>而且它并不是唯一的买家；这两类股票今年都上涨了约 25%，领先于标准普尔 500 指数约 20% 的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Last WeekPre-Tantrum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上周发脾气前</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock indexes finished the week in the red, with the bulk of the week’s selling coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. The S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq Composite,andDow Jones Industrial Averageeach sank close to 2% over those days. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee’s latest meeting, released on Wednesday, showed an active debate among officials about when to begin withdrawing the emergency stimulus in place since March 2020. The Fed could begin reducing its U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases—currently running at a combined $120 billion a month—this fall. The Dow finished the week down 1.1%, at 35,120.08; the S&amp;P lost 0.6%, to 4441.67; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, to 14,714.66.</p><p><blockquote>股指本周收红，本周大部分抛售发生在周二和周三。标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数在那些日子里均下跌了近 2%。美联储货币政策委员会周三公布的最新会议纪要显示，官员们正在就何时开始撤回自2020年3月以来实施的紧急刺激措施展开激烈辩论。美联储可能会在今年秋天开始减少美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买——目前每月总计1200亿美元。道琼斯指数本周收盘下跌 1.1%，至 35,120.08 点；标准普尔指数下跌0.6%，至4441.67点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.7%，至 14,714.66 点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shop Till They Drop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购物直到它们掉落</b></blockquote></p><p> Retailers reported their results for the May-to-July period, their second quarter. The overall picture is of consumers armed with pandemic savings and federal stimulus cash—and eager to spend it.Walmart,Target,Home Depot,Macy’s,and more topped Wall Street’s forecasts for sales and profits in the quarter. (See“Shoppers Are Crowding Malls and Bricks-and-Mortar Stores Again.”)</p><p><blockquote>零售商公布了 5 月至 7 月第二季度的业绩。总体情况是，消费者手持大流行病储蓄和联邦刺激现金，并渴望花掉这些钱.沃尔玛、塔吉特、家得宝、梅西百货等本季度的销售额和利润都超过了华尔街的预测。（参见“购物者再次涌入商场和实体店”。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calling All Hackers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>呼叫所有黑客</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares ofT-Mobile UScame under pressure after reports in the online publication Motherboard that customer data claiming to be from the wireless network operator’s servers was for sale online. T-Mobile later confirmed that there had been unauthorized access to some of the company’s data, including records for roughly 54 million people.</p><p><blockquote>在线出版物 Motherboard 报道称，声称来自无线网络运营商服务器的客户数据正在网上出售，这给 ofT-Mobile UScame 带来了压力。T-Mobile 随后证实，有人未经授权访问了该公司的一些数据，其中包括大约 5400 万人的记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Passing the Baton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>传递接力棒</b></blockquote></p><p> Johnson &amp; Johnsonannounced a surprise CEO transition. Its current chief executive, Alex Gorsky, will hand the reins to Joaquin Duato in January after nine years in charge and three decades at the company, which has a market value of nearly $500 billion. Duato, 59, is currently the vice chairman of J&amp;J’s executive committee. Gorsky, 61, will assume the post of executive chairman, a newly created role, next year.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司宣布出人意料地更换首席执行官。其现任首席执行官亚历克斯·戈尔斯基 (Alex Gorsky) 将于 1 月份将权力移交给华金·杜阿托 (Joaquin Duato)，此前他已掌管这家市值近 5000 亿美元的公司长达 9 年，并在该公司工作了 30 年。现年 59 岁的杜阿托现任强生执行委员会副主席。61岁的戈尔斯基将于明年担任新设立的执行主席一职。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Annals of Deal Making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易年鉴</b></blockquote></p><p> Gene-sequencing firmIlluminaclosed a $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail, which works on early cancer detection. A legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission continues…German logistics firm Deutsche Post will acquire ocean freight-forwarding company J.F. Hillebrand Group for about 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in cash…ToolmakerStanley Black &amp; Deckeragreed to pay $1.6 billion in cash for the 80% of MTD Holdings that it doesn’t already own. MTD makes lawn mowers and other outdoor power tools under the Cub Cadet and Troy-Bilt brands…BHP Groupwill merge its oil-and-gas unit withWoodside Petroleumin an all-stock deal, with its shareholders owning 48%. The miner will also shift its primary stock market listing from London to Sydney.</p><p><blockquote>基因测序公司 Firmillumina 完成了对 Grail 的 71 亿美元收购，该公司致力于早期癌症检测。与联邦贸易委员会的法律战仍在继续……德国物流公司德国邮政将收购海运代理公司J.F。Hillebrand Group 以约 15 亿欧元（18 亿美元）现金收购.工具制造商 Stanley Black &amp; Decker 同意以 16 亿美元现金收购其尚未拥有的 MTD 80% 的股份。MTD 以 Cub Cadet 和 Troy-Bilt 品牌生产割草机和其他户外电动工具……必和必拓集团将以全股票交易的形式将其石油和天然气部门与伍德赛德石油公司合并，其股东持有 48% 的股份。该矿商还将把其主要股票市场上市从伦敦转移到悉尼。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-holdings-news-51629509250?siteid=yhoof2&tesla=y\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-holdings-news-51629509250?siteid=yhoof2&tesla=y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176431153","content_text":"If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and equivalents on an acquisition, you’ll have to wait a little longer—maybe a lot longer. Not only did Berkshire fail to make a significant purchase in the second quarter, but CEO Warren Buffett and his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were net sellers of about $1 billion of stocks in the period, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing.\nBerkshire pared its stakes in three drug stocks—AbbVie,Bristol-Myers Squibb, andMerck—all acquired in 2020. The company also sold seven millionGeneral Motorsshares in the quarter, cutting its holding to 60 million shares, now worth $3.2 billion. Berkshire trimmed itsChevronposition slightly, and added to its stake in grocerKroger.\nThere were no changes in its two largest holdings. The company’sApplestake held steady at 887 million shares, now worth $134 billion, andBank of Americastood at 1.01 billion shares, worth $41 billion. Berkshire’s total equity holdings topped $300 billion as of June 30.\nAs for its own shares, Berkshire was a buyer, scooping up about $6 billion of stock in each of the past two quarters, or about 1% of the shares outstanding in each period.\nAnd it wasn’t the only buyer; both share classes are up about 25% this year, ahead of theS&P 500index’s total return of about 20%.\nLast WeekPre-Tantrum\nStock indexes finished the week in the red, with the bulk of the week’s selling coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. The S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite,andDow Jones Industrial Averageeach sank close to 2% over those days. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee’s latest meeting, released on Wednesday, showed an active debate among officials about when to begin withdrawing the emergency stimulus in place since March 2020. The Fed could begin reducing its U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases—currently running at a combined $120 billion a month—this fall. The Dow finished the week down 1.1%, at 35,120.08; the S&P lost 0.6%, to 4441.67; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, to 14,714.66.\nShop Till They Drop\nRetailers reported their results for the May-to-July period, their second quarter. The overall picture is of consumers armed with pandemic savings and federal stimulus cash—and eager to spend it.Walmart,Target,Home Depot,Macy’s,and more topped Wall Street’s forecasts for sales and profits in the quarter. (See“Shoppers Are Crowding Malls and Bricks-and-Mortar Stores Again.”)\nCalling All Hackers\nShares ofT-Mobile UScame under pressure after reports in the online publication Motherboard that customer data claiming to be from the wireless network operator’s servers was for sale online. T-Mobile later confirmed that there had been unauthorized access to some of the company’s data, including records for roughly 54 million people.\nPassing the Baton\nJohnson & Johnsonannounced a surprise CEO transition. Its current chief executive, Alex Gorsky, will hand the reins to Joaquin Duato in January after nine years in charge and three decades at the company, which has a market value of nearly $500 billion. Duato, 59, is currently the vice chairman of J&J’s executive committee. Gorsky, 61, will assume the post of executive chairman, a newly created role, next year.\nAnnals of Deal Making\nGene-sequencing firmIlluminaclosed a $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail, which works on early cancer detection. A legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission continues…German logistics firm Deutsche Post will acquire ocean freight-forwarding company J.F. Hillebrand Group for about 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in cash…ToolmakerStanley Black & Deckeragreed to pay $1.6 billion in cash for the 80% of MTD Holdings that it doesn’t already own. MTD makes lawn mowers and other outdoor power tools under the Cub Cadet and Troy-Bilt brands…BHP Groupwill merge its oil-and-gas unit withWoodside Petroleumin an all-stock deal, with its shareholders owning 48%. The miner will also shift its primary stock market listing from London to Sydney.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833523247,"gmtCreate":1629250871889,"gmtModify":1631889238099,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"buy both!!&nbsp;","listText":"buy both!!&nbsp;","text":"buy both!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833523247","repostId":"1141614406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896873601,"gmtCreate":1628572671203,"gmtModify":1631888035655,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Adobe good buy!&nbsp;","listText":"Adobe good buy!&nbsp;","text":"Adobe good buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896873601","repostId":"2155377091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3034,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898864450,"gmtCreate":1628485426970,"gmtModify":1631889238108,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"alphabet is a no brainer buy!&nbsp;","listText":"alphabet is a no brainer buy!&nbsp;","text":"alphabet is a no brainer buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898864450","repostId":"2157418003","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891013813,"gmtCreate":1628306413432,"gmtModify":1631889238109,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt&nbsp;","listText":"reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt&nbsp;","text":"reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891013813","repostId":"1174322042","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893002499,"gmtCreate":1628218537811,"gmtModify":1631889238109,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current&nbsp;price!&nbsp;","listText":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current&nbsp;price!&nbsp;","text":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current price!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893002499","repostId":"1150788850","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805800938,"gmtCreate":1627867905624,"gmtModify":1631889238111,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper&nbsp;","listText":"yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper&nbsp;","text":"yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805800938","repostId":"1130492644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130492644","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627867792,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130492644?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130492644","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.</li>  <li>Apple’s current high growth is temporary.</li>  <li>Apple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e45c69c559fb64f9cda12fb93f34c0d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股息收益率理论是健康公司股票被高估和被低估的一个很好的指标。</li><li>苹果目前的高增长是暂时的。</li><li>苹果正在成为股息贵族。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>克里斯托弗·朱/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对待苹果 (AAPL)，就好像它已经找到了第二次增长高峰。事实上，苹果现在是一头成熟的摇钱树，而不是一头崭露头角的小牛。疫情让许多公司比他们希望的更快地过渡到互联网。这对苹果来说是好事，但由于它在大流行之前就已经是一家成熟的企业，因此它将恢复到大流行前的正常增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 2016 年至 2020 年的 5 年平均股息率为 1.46%，目前苹果的股息率为 0.68%。苹果已经支付股息近 10 年了，平均收益率约为 1.4%。为了让苹果提供这样的收益率，股价必须下跌至 75-85 美元的范围。现在是时候在你的苹果利润恢复到平均水平之前拿走它了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么苹果被高估，股息收益率理论</b></blockquote></p><p> Dividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>投资质量趋势创始人杰拉尔丁-韦斯（Geraldine Weiss）通过一本名为《股息不要说谎》的书推广了股息收益率理论。股息收益率理论的本质是，优质公司往往具有 “正常 ”的收益率，随着市场对公司的喜爱或失去喜爱，股息收益率会波动，从而创造买卖机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a469d363e933b84759428285f957590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alphadividend yield</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法股息收益率</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果的股息收益率历史。从平均收益率一栏可以看出，苹果目前的平均收益率是苹果首次开始派息以来的最低水平。这表明苹果是一个尖叫卖家。另一方面，苹果上一次平均收益率超过 2% 是在 2016 年。当时，苹果是一个尖叫的买家。巧合的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）开始购买苹果股票的同一年。</blockquote></p><p> The reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.</p><p><blockquote>之所以有效，是因为股息收益率是股价的乘积。从上图可以看出，从2016年到2018年，股息收益率有所下降，这表明苹果的股价有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991e5d3137bf5ac3c9bc4aaf26c01581\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：雅虎财经，2016年1月1日至2018年12月31日苹果股价</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.</p><p><blockquote>事情正是如此。在 2018 年的巅峰时期，苹果的股息收益率为 1.28%。此时，苹果的 5 年期平均收益率为 1.86%。2018 年底，苹果的股息率为 1.97%。正如你现在所看到的，公司的股息收益率可以很好地代表公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Time Is not different</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这次也不例外</b></blockquote></p><p> I know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>我知道你们中的一些人在想，嗯，股息收益率理论很好，但多亏了新冠疫情，这次情况有所不同。我不认为这次对苹果来说会有什么不同，原因是苹果在大流行病之前就已经成熟了。</blockquote></p><p> It is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和许多其他科技公司确实从疫情中受益，但苹果与Shopify、Zoom和Disney Plus有着显著的不同。也就是说，苹果已经在很大程度上渗透了其整个潜在市场。在疫情之前，我们大多数人从未听说过Zoom。我们开始在家工作，需要一个远程通信的解决方案，bam Zoom利用了这一点。在疫情之前，iPhone仍然是被击败的智能手机，拥有数千万用户的智能手机，是远在中国的必备身份象征。2012年我在中国留学了一个学期。在那段时间里，我的教授告诉我们身份象征对中国人有多重要。所有年龄段的学生在父母给他们买 iPhone 之前都不会去上学，因为没有 iPhone，他们就会丢 “面子”。许多人买不起手机套餐，我和我的朋友们目睹了许多人拥有一部iPhone只是为了炫耀。那是在 2012 年，也就是疫情爆发前 8 年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae87be3f096ac0a13d2e38634b8c34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果 2021 年第三季度*涵盖 2021 年 4 月至 6 月*</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home &amp; Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，苹果的大部分收入来自产品。进一步下降的产品被确定为iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、家居和配件。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef98109e802b72a60990d870e23814d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Again the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone再次占据了大多数。iPhone销量的高增长率也佐证了这样一种理论，即这一轮增长是由于似乎每3年发生一次的苹果超级周期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71f026725256789694ea1ff46574c4a\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha Financials，作者整理</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.</p><p><blockquote>过去10年的模式是1年的强劲增长，随后是2年的缓慢增长。正如您所看到的，这导致 10 年复合年增长率约为 10% - 13%，具体取决于我们在周期中的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62395de39d598a2d5fb553eca56086d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2017 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2017 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们看到了2015年的超级周期，随后是2016年和2017年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e63c1a8fd16ae504ee3794c0eff4198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况再次发生在最近的2018年超级周期中，随后是2019年和2020年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> When we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.</p><p><blockquote>当我们查看这些时期按产品划分的收入时，我们可以看到iPhone销量下降，而其他类别无法弥补明年的收入损失。在接下来的一年，即 2017 年和 2020 年，其他收入来源的增长足以推动苹果总收入的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3954b0d588d038dc2dd5e88c39c5ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Patterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.</p><p><blockquote>模式可能会重复，直到发生一些事情改变它们。我看不到这样的催化剂，目前 iPhone 的销售再次将苹果的收入推向了创纪录的水平。iPhone的销售似乎卖得很好，因为即将向5G过渡，许多iPhone用户的设备至少有3年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12于2020年10月亮相并发布。这意味着超级周期预计将随着预计在9月或10月发布的iPhone 13而结束。我相信这表明 2022 财年对于苹果股东来说将是艰难的一年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的第三幕也是最后一幕--摇钱树</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要关注苹果作为股息贵族的未来。苹果正在向更多基于服务的收入转型。这是一项利润率较高的业务，但爆炸性创新较少，这意味着增长将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> At the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>按照目前的股价，投资者根据一些乐观的假设 “锁定 ”未来 10 年 9% 的目标回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Growth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.</li>  <li>An expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%</li>  <li>Apple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.</li> </ul> All of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>前5年增长19.3%，后5年增长12%。</li><li>预期股息增长率为17.5%</li><li>苹果恢复到21的历史市盈率。</li></ul>所有这些加在一起意味着苹果 10 年后的股价将为 293.47 美元，股息将为每股 4.43 美元，现有股东的收益率为 1.5%，更接近他们目前的 5 年平均收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的股息支付率为 15.86%。德州仪器（TXN）和 Intuit（INTU）等 IT 行业的其他公司的派息率分别为 51% 和 25%，这表明苹果未来几年的股息将更高。预计 2031 年每股收益为 14 美元，51% 的派息意味着股息为 7 美元/sh。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与机遇，股息增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.</p><p><blockquote>根据5年平均股息收益率和当前股息增长率，股息很可能会增加至1.03-1.14美元。为了让苹果在预计的未来股息下保持其历史收益率，苹果股价必须在 80 美元左右交易价格。苹果有可能支付并将股息提高到 1.89 美元。苹果在 2020 年的股息上花费了 140 亿美元，将股息提高到 1.89 美元将使股价增至 310 亿美元。这将把他们的派息率提高到34%，这是摇钱树公司的典型派息率。</blockquote></p><p> The expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我预测的预期股息是基于股息占用的经营现金流百分比。在过去的3年里，这一比例从15%到18%不等。我使用了大约 1001.5 亿美元的运营现金流，按 19% 计算，您可以获得 1.14 美元的股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153079186d84770e064411e34a42745e\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法现金流量表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.</p><p><blockquote>最后，股息收益率低于1%可能成为苹果的常态。如果目前 2021 年 0.63% 的平均收益率成为新常态，那么根据我预测的股息增长，苹果的股价应升至 163.49 美元至 180.95 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.</p><p><blockquote>卖掉苹果，现在就拿你的利润。超级周期将会结束。稍后回来，在股息收益率较高时以折扣价购买苹果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.</li>  <li>Apple’s current high growth is temporary.</li>  <li>Apple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e45c69c559fb64f9cda12fb93f34c0d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股息收益率理论是健康公司股票被高估和被低估的一个很好的指标。</li><li>苹果目前的高增长是暂时的。</li><li>苹果正在成为股息贵族。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>克里斯托弗·朱/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对待苹果 (AAPL)，就好像它已经找到了第二次增长高峰。事实上，苹果现在是一头成熟的摇钱树，而不是一头崭露头角的小牛。疫情让许多公司比他们希望的更快地过渡到互联网。这对苹果来说是好事，但由于它在大流行之前就已经是一家成熟的企业，因此它将恢复到大流行前的正常增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 2016 年至 2020 年的 5 年平均股息率为 1.46%，目前苹果的股息率为 0.68%。苹果已经支付股息近 10 年了，平均收益率约为 1.4%。为了让苹果提供这样的收益率，股价必须下跌至 75-85 美元的范围。现在是时候在你的苹果利润恢复到平均水平之前拿走它了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么苹果被高估，股息收益率理论</b></blockquote></p><p> Dividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>投资质量趋势创始人杰拉尔丁-韦斯（Geraldine Weiss）通过一本名为《股息不要说谎》的书推广了股息收益率理论。股息收益率理论的本质是，优质公司往往具有 “正常 ”的收益率，随着市场对公司的喜爱或失去喜爱，股息收益率会波动，从而创造买卖机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a469d363e933b84759428285f957590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alphadividend yield</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法股息收益率</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果的股息收益率历史。从平均收益率一栏可以看出，苹果目前的平均收益率是苹果首次开始派息以来的最低水平。这表明苹果是一个尖叫卖家。另一方面，苹果上一次平均收益率超过 2% 是在 2016 年。当时，苹果是一个尖叫的买家。巧合的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）开始购买苹果股票的同一年。</blockquote></p><p> The reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.</p><p><blockquote>之所以有效，是因为股息收益率是股价的乘积。从上图可以看出，从2016年到2018年，股息收益率有所下降，这表明苹果的股价有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991e5d3137bf5ac3c9bc4aaf26c01581\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：雅虎财经，2016年1月1日至2018年12月31日苹果股价</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.</p><p><blockquote>事情正是如此。在 2018 年的巅峰时期，苹果的股息收益率为 1.28%。此时，苹果的 5 年期平均收益率为 1.86%。2018 年底，苹果的股息率为 1.97%。正如你现在所看到的，公司的股息收益率可以很好地代表公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Time Is not different</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这次也不例外</b></blockquote></p><p> I know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>我知道你们中的一些人在想，嗯，股息收益率理论很好，但多亏了新冠疫情，这次情况有所不同。我不认为这次对苹果来说会有什么不同，原因是苹果在大流行病之前就已经成熟了。</blockquote></p><p> It is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和许多其他科技公司确实从疫情中受益，但苹果与Shopify、Zoom和Disney Plus有着显著的不同。也就是说，苹果已经在很大程度上渗透了其整个潜在市场。在疫情之前，我们大多数人从未听说过Zoom。我们开始在家工作，需要一个远程通信的解决方案，bam Zoom利用了这一点。在疫情之前，iPhone仍然是被击败的智能手机，拥有数千万用户的智能手机，是远在中国的必备身份象征。2012年我在中国留学了一个学期。在那段时间里，我的教授告诉我们身份象征对中国人有多重要。所有年龄段的学生在父母给他们买 iPhone 之前都不会去上学，因为没有 iPhone，他们就会丢 “面子”。许多人买不起手机套餐，我和我的朋友们目睹了许多人拥有一部iPhone只是为了炫耀。那是在 2012 年，也就是疫情爆发前 8 年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae87be3f096ac0a13d2e38634b8c34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果 2021 年第三季度*涵盖 2021 年 4 月至 6 月*</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home &amp; Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，苹果的大部分收入来自产品。进一步下降的产品被确定为iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、家居和配件。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef98109e802b72a60990d870e23814d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Again the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone再次占据了大多数。iPhone销量的高增长率也佐证了这样一种理论，即这一轮增长是由于似乎每3年发生一次的苹果超级周期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71f026725256789694ea1ff46574c4a\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha Financials，作者整理</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.</p><p><blockquote>过去10年的模式是1年的强劲增长，随后是2年的缓慢增长。正如您所看到的，这导致 10 年复合年增长率约为 10% - 13%，具体取决于我们在周期中的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62395de39d598a2d5fb553eca56086d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2017 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2017 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们看到了2015年的超级周期，随后是2016年和2017年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e63c1a8fd16ae504ee3794c0eff4198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况再次发生在最近的2018年超级周期中，随后是2019年和2020年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> When we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.</p><p><blockquote>当我们查看这些时期按产品划分的收入时，我们可以看到iPhone销量下降，而其他类别无法弥补明年的收入损失。在接下来的一年，即 2017 年和 2020 年，其他收入来源的增长足以推动苹果总收入的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3954b0d588d038dc2dd5e88c39c5ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Patterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.</p><p><blockquote>模式可能会重复，直到发生一些事情改变它们。我看不到这样的催化剂，目前 iPhone 的销售再次将苹果的收入推向了创纪录的水平。iPhone的销售似乎卖得很好，因为即将向5G过渡，许多iPhone用户的设备至少有3年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12于2020年10月亮相并发布。这意味着超级周期预计将随着预计在9月或10月发布的iPhone 13而结束。我相信这表明 2022 财年对于苹果股东来说将是艰难的一年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的第三幕也是最后一幕--摇钱树</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要关注苹果作为股息贵族的未来。苹果正在向更多基于服务的收入转型。这是一项利润率较高的业务，但爆炸性创新较少，这意味着增长将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> At the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>按照目前的股价，投资者根据一些乐观的假设 “锁定 ”未来 10 年 9% 的目标回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Growth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.</li>  <li>An expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%</li>  <li>Apple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.</li> </ul> All of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>前5年增长19.3%，后5年增长12%。</li><li>预期股息增长率为17.5%</li><li>苹果恢复到21的历史市盈率。</li></ul>所有这些加在一起意味着苹果 10 年后的股价将为 293.47 美元，股息将为每股 4.43 美元，现有股东的收益率为 1.5%，更接近他们目前的 5 年平均收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的股息支付率为 15.86%。德州仪器（TXN）和 Intuit（INTU）等 IT 行业的其他公司的派息率分别为 51% 和 25%，这表明苹果未来几年的股息将更高。预计 2031 年每股收益为 14 美元，51% 的派息意味着股息为 7 美元/sh。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与机遇，股息增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.</p><p><blockquote>根据5年平均股息收益率和当前股息增长率，股息很可能会增加至1.03-1.14美元。为了让苹果在预计的未来股息下保持其历史收益率，苹果股价必须在 80 美元左右交易价格。苹果有可能支付并将股息提高到 1.89 美元。苹果在 2020 年的股息上花费了 140 亿美元，将股息提高到 1.89 美元将使股价增至 310 亿美元。这将把他们的派息率提高到34%，这是摇钱树公司的典型派息率。</blockquote></p><p> The expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我预测的预期股息是基于股息占用的经营现金流百分比。在过去的3年里，这一比例从15%到18%不等。我使用了大约 1001.5 亿美元的运营现金流，按 19% 计算，您可以获得 1.14 美元的股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153079186d84770e064411e34a42745e\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法现金流量表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.</p><p><blockquote>最后，股息收益率低于1%可能成为苹果的常态。如果目前 2021 年 0.63% 的平均收益率成为新常态，那么根据我预测的股息增长，苹果的股价应升至 163.49 美元至 180.95 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.</p><p><blockquote>卖掉苹果，现在就拿你的利润。超级周期将会结束。稍后回来，在股息收益率较高时以折扣价购买苹果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130492644","content_text":"Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.\nApple’s current high growth is temporary.\nApple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.\n\nChristopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment\nInvestment Thesis\nInvestors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.\nApple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.\nWhy Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory\nDividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.\nSource: Seeking Alphadividend yield\nHere we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.\nThe reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.\nSource: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018\nThat is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.\nThis Time Is not different\nI know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.\nIt is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.\nSource: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*\nAs we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home & Accessories.\n\nAgain the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author\nThe pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.\nSource: Apple2017 10-K\nHere we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.\nSource: Apple2020 10-K\nAgain it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.\nWhen we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.\n\nPatterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.\nThe iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.\nApple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow\nInvestors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.\nAt the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.\n\nGrowth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.\nAn expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%\nApple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.\n\nAll of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.\nApple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.\nRisk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase\nBased on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.\nThe expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.\nSource: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement\nLastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.\nConclusion\nSell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802257145,"gmtCreate":1627784260487,"gmtModify":1631889238116,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Are we gonna see another cathie?&nbsp;","listText":"Are we gonna see another cathie?&nbsp;","text":"Are we gonna see another cathie?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802257145","repostId":"1141267906","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802254983,"gmtCreate":1627784189542,"gmtModify":1631889238116,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential!&nbsp;","listText":"hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential!&nbsp;","text":"hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802254983","repostId":"1146192957","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802018716,"gmtCreate":1627698663935,"gmtModify":1631885479234,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Intel need alot of catchup to do&nbsp;","listText":"Intel need alot of catchup to do&nbsp;","text":"Intel need alot of catchup to do","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802018716","repostId":"1115580649","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115580649","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627687297,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115580649?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 07:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115580649","media":"Barron's","summary":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and recl","content":"<p>Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官表示，该公司将获得下一代全球最令人垂涎的芯片制造机器的使用权，并在 2025 年前夺回其技术领先地位。他认为公司的价值可以 “翻三倍、翻四倍”。我五分好奇，四分之一信服。</blockquote></p><p> This past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”</p><p><blockquote>上周，自二月份以来一直担任英特尔（股票代码：INTC）负责人的帕特-基尔辛格（Pat Gelsinger）接受了挑战，向一个认为医生有时会挤出来的人解释他的 “节点 ”四年计划。原来，他们也是芯片制造一代，基辛格计划与他们中的许多人竞争。“他告诉我：”英特尔太傲慢了。“我们正在迅速分解这一点”。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>投资银行雷蒙德·詹姆斯预测，今年，英特尔将出售 85% 的所谓客户端计算芯片，包括笔记本电脑等。这将在两年内下降 7 个百分点，而竞争对手 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 的涨幅也一样快。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.</p><p><blockquote>服务器的趋势也类似。评论网站 Tom's Hardware 和 AnandTech 称，英特尔最新的服务器芯片有了很大的进步，但 AMD 在性能方面仍然领先。大型组织和数据中心的买家规避风险，重视支持和长期经验，不仅仅是性价比，但这不会永远减缓英特尔的份额损失。与此同时，个人电脑领域的下滑被 Covid-19 家庭办公室购买量的激增所抵消，但这种情况可能会改变。</blockquote></p><p> How did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔是如何落后的？它进行了全有或全无的技术赌注，导致了死胡同，而竞争对手则进行了频繁的、渐进式的改进。它采用了一种称为极紫外光刻（EUV）的新制造技术，该技术比传统光刻技术在硅中塞入了更多的电路。</blockquote></p><p> And it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>它对权力转向台积电（TSM）等代工厂的反应可能很慢。台积电不仅仅是接受命令。其营业利润率是 AMD 的两倍。所以，英特尔一直在设计和制造两线作战。</blockquote></p><p> There have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.</p><p><blockquote>还有其他更长的轮班。计算能力已经迁移到云端，所以我们可以用更长时间的个人机器。像人工智能这样的高级应用有利于高度并行处理，就像视频游戏一样；英伟达（NVDA）将其长期的成功转化为数据中心的财富。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&amp;P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.</p><p><blockquote>股市的判断是严峻的。十年前，英特尔的市值为 1180 亿美元，比台积电、英伟达和 AMD 的总和高出 400 亿美元。现在，英特尔的市值接近2200亿美元，但其他公司加起来只有1.1万亿美元。经过股票回购和股息后，英特尔投资者在此期间的收益超过 220%。但他们的标准普尔 500 指数本可以上涨近 100 点，或者 PHLX 半导体指数本可以上涨 700 点。</blockquote></p><p> A positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.</p><p><blockquote>一个积极的迹象是，近年来离开英特尔的顶级工程师正在回归。“盖尔辛格说：”他们感受到了魔力的回归。但这需要的不仅仅是魔法。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官表示，目前他将部分依赖外部代工厂，同时建立一个为其他芯片制造商提供服务的代工厂。亚利桑那州的两家新工厂正在建设中，耗资 200 亿美元，这还不包括设备。据报道，该公司还就以 300 亿美元收购 GlobalFoundries 进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，基尔辛格说：“随着时间的推移，会有整合，我们将成为整合者”。</blockquote></p><p> Now, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.</p><p><blockquote>现在来说说这些节点： 英特尔一直使用不断缩小的长度来命名它们，比如 “10 纳米”。这些数字用于指特定的晶体管部件，但在现代架构中，芯片制造商一直在随意抛出测量值。所以，从现在开始，这只是数字： 今年晚些时候的英特尔 7，然后是 4，然后是 3。然后是英特尔 20A 和 18A，让人想起 “埃时代”。埃是纳米的十分之一，那么这些名字会基于测量结果吗？不：它们只是为了营销。为了清晰起见，我给新的命名方案打了4分，从橙色到圆周率。</blockquote></p><p> The new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.</p><p><blockquote>然而，新的节点映射不仅仅是一个重命名。提议的芯片改进将是快速和稳定的。英特尔将从明年的批次开始采用 EUV。2024 年，该公司将进行十多年来的首次重大架构变革，并表示将在性能上赶上竞争对手。第二年，它将通过竞争，转向 EUV 的继任者 high-NA EUV。NA代表数值孔径，但它可以代表牛轧糖和杏仁，只要性能增益像承诺的那样大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.<i>Barron’s</i>has been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.</p><p><blockquote>多头和空头都认为该计划是激进的。看空者说，这将花费太多，结果要几年才能知道，而且从现在到那时，英特尔将继续失去市场份额。看涨者表示，英特尔将稳定其份额，而风险反映在其股价是今年预计收益的 11 倍，约为大盘价格的一半。<i>巴伦</i>一直在推动英特尔的重塑工作。犹豫不决的投资者可能希望等到11月，届时英特尔将召开分析师会议，并可能为其计划定价。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.</p><p><blockquote>大量资金将用于设备。EUV 机器由 ASML Holding (ASML) 制造，该公司现在拥有巨大的实力。“看好英特尔的 Needham 分析师奎因-博尔顿（Quinn Bolton）说：”如果 ASML 想要决定代工领域的市场份额，那么它将这些制造位置分配给谁将产生相当大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”</p><p><blockquote>基辛格说他现在有他需要的EUV机器。关于 high-NA 以及他与 ASML 的合同关系，他说：“我们将成为这些工具的首批生产用户”。</blockquote></p><p> ASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>正如你所想象的那样，ASML 的股价距离天堂还差一埃，是今年盈利预测的 48 倍。EUV 机器的买家也需要其他公司的齿轮。博尔顿最喜欢的股票投资者是应用材料公司（AMAT）。多年来，它的价格已经翻了五倍，但市盈率仍然是普通的 20 倍左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 07:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官表示，该公司将获得下一代全球最令人垂涎的芯片制造机器的使用权，并在 2025 年前夺回其技术领先地位。他认为公司的价值可以 “翻三倍、翻四倍”。我五分好奇，四分之一信服。</blockquote></p><p> This past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”</p><p><blockquote>上周，自二月份以来一直担任英特尔（股票代码：INTC）负责人的帕特-基尔辛格（Pat Gelsinger）接受了挑战，向一个认为医生有时会挤出来的人解释他的 “节点 ”四年计划。原来，他们也是芯片制造一代，基辛格计划与他们中的许多人竞争。“他告诉我：”英特尔太傲慢了。“我们正在迅速分解这一点”。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>投资银行雷蒙德·詹姆斯预测，今年，英特尔将出售 85% 的所谓客户端计算芯片，包括笔记本电脑等。这将在两年内下降 7 个百分点，而竞争对手 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 的涨幅也一样快。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.</p><p><blockquote>服务器的趋势也类似。评论网站 Tom's Hardware 和 AnandTech 称，英特尔最新的服务器芯片有了很大的进步，但 AMD 在性能方面仍然领先。大型组织和数据中心的买家规避风险，重视支持和长期经验，不仅仅是性价比，但这不会永远减缓英特尔的份额损失。与此同时，个人电脑领域的下滑被 Covid-19 家庭办公室购买量的激增所抵消，但这种情况可能会改变。</blockquote></p><p> How did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔是如何落后的？它进行了全有或全无的技术赌注，导致了死胡同，而竞争对手则进行了频繁的、渐进式的改进。它采用了一种称为极紫外光刻（EUV）的新制造技术，该技术比传统光刻技术在硅中塞入了更多的电路。</blockquote></p><p> And it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>它对权力转向台积电（TSM）等代工厂的反应可能很慢。台积电不仅仅是接受命令。其营业利润率是 AMD 的两倍。所以，英特尔一直在设计和制造两线作战。</blockquote></p><p> There have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.</p><p><blockquote>还有其他更长的轮班。计算能力已经迁移到云端，所以我们可以用更长时间的个人机器。像人工智能这样的高级应用有利于高度并行处理，就像视频游戏一样；英伟达（NVDA）将其长期的成功转化为数据中心的财富。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&amp;P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.</p><p><blockquote>股市的判断是严峻的。十年前，英特尔的市值为 1180 亿美元，比台积电、英伟达和 AMD 的总和高出 400 亿美元。现在，英特尔的市值接近2200亿美元，但其他公司加起来只有1.1万亿美元。经过股票回购和股息后，英特尔投资者在此期间的收益超过 220%。但他们的标准普尔 500 指数本可以上涨近 100 点，或者 PHLX 半导体指数本可以上涨 700 点。</blockquote></p><p> A positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.</p><p><blockquote>一个积极的迹象是，近年来离开英特尔的顶级工程师正在回归。“盖尔辛格说：”他们感受到了魔力的回归。但这需要的不仅仅是魔法。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官表示，目前他将部分依赖外部代工厂，同时建立一个为其他芯片制造商提供服务的代工厂。亚利桑那州的两家新工厂正在建设中，耗资 200 亿美元，这还不包括设备。据报道，该公司还就以 300 亿美元收购 GlobalFoundries 进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，基尔辛格说：“随着时间的推移，会有整合，我们将成为整合者”。</blockquote></p><p> Now, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.</p><p><blockquote>现在来说说这些节点： 英特尔一直使用不断缩小的长度来命名它们，比如 “10 纳米”。这些数字用于指特定的晶体管部件，但在现代架构中，芯片制造商一直在随意抛出测量值。所以，从现在开始，这只是数字： 今年晚些时候的英特尔 7，然后是 4，然后是 3。然后是英特尔 20A 和 18A，让人想起 “埃时代”。埃是纳米的十分之一，那么这些名字会基于测量结果吗？不：它们只是为了营销。为了清晰起见，我给新的命名方案打了4分，从橙色到圆周率。</blockquote></p><p> The new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.</p><p><blockquote>然而，新的节点映射不仅仅是一个重命名。提议的芯片改进将是快速和稳定的。英特尔将从明年的批次开始采用 EUV。2024 年，该公司将进行十多年来的首次重大架构变革，并表示将在性能上赶上竞争对手。第二年，它将通过竞争，转向 EUV 的继任者 high-NA EUV。NA代表数值孔径，但它可以代表牛轧糖和杏仁，只要性能增益像承诺的那样大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.<i>Barron’s</i>has been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.</p><p><blockquote>多头和空头都认为该计划是激进的。看空者说，这将花费太多，结果要几年才能知道，而且从现在到那时，英特尔将继续失去市场份额。看涨者表示，英特尔将稳定其份额，而风险反映在其股价是今年预计收益的 11 倍，约为大盘价格的一半。<i>巴伦</i>一直在推动英特尔的重塑工作。犹豫不决的投资者可能希望等到11月，届时英特尔将召开分析师会议，并可能为其计划定价。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.</p><p><blockquote>大量资金将用于设备。EUV 机器由 ASML Holding (ASML) 制造，该公司现在拥有巨大的实力。“看好英特尔的 Needham 分析师奎因-博尔顿（Quinn Bolton）说：”如果 ASML 想要决定代工领域的市场份额，那么它将这些制造位置分配给谁将产生相当大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”</p><p><blockquote>基辛格说他现在有他需要的EUV机器。关于 high-NA 以及他与 ASML 的合同关系，他说：“我们将成为这些工具的首批生产用户”。</blockquote></p><p> ASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>正如你所想象的那样，ASML 的股价距离天堂还差一埃，是今年盈利预测的 48 倍。EUV 机器的买家也需要其他公司的齿轮。博尔顿最喜欢的股票投资者是应用材料公司（AMAT）。多年来，它的价格已经翻了五倍，但市盈率仍然是普通的 20 倍左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/intel-new-ceo-wait-to-buy-stock-51627685968?mod=mw_latestnews&tesla=y\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/intel-new-ceo-wait-to-buy-stock-51627685968?mod=mw_latestnews&tesla=y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115580649","content_text":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.\nThis past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”\nThis year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.\nThe trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.\nHow did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.\nAnd it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.\nThere have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.\nThe stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.\nA positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.\nThe CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.\nSpeaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”\nNow, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.\nThe new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.\nBulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.Barron’shas been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.\nPlenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.\nGelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”\nASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808760363,"gmtCreate":1627610874552,"gmtModify":1631889238123,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"might be due to the saga of meme stocks","listText":"might be due to the saga of meme stocks","text":"might be due to the saga of meme stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808760363","repostId":"1124605540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808784826,"gmtCreate":1627610773365,"gmtModify":1631889238130,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"amazon will still continue to grow, but maybe at a slower rate.&nbsp;","listText":"amazon will still continue to grow, but maybe at a slower rate.&nbsp;","text":"amazon will still continue to grow, but maybe at a slower rate.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808784826","repostId":"1105519179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803661193,"gmtCreate":1627436639512,"gmtModify":1633765005725,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice! go go gme!&nbsp;","listText":"Nice! go go gme!&nbsp;","text":"Nice! go go gme!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803661193","repostId":"1144879794","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144879794","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627433268,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1144879794?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop to join S&P MidCap 400 index next week<blockquote>游戏驿站将于下周加入标准普尔中型股 400 指数</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144879794","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 27 (Reuters) - S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Tuesday GameStop, one of the hottest and most visi","content":"<p>July 27 (Reuters) - S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices said on Tuesday GameStop, one of the hottest and most visible ‘meme stocks’, will join the S&amp;P MidCap 400 index next week.</p><p><blockquote>7 月 27 日（路透社）--标准普尔道琼斯指数周二表示，最热门、最引人注目的 “备忘录股票 ”之一游戏驿站将于下周加入标准普尔中型股 400 指数。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop’s shares have surged more than nine fold this year, helped by a social media hype and was the spark in January for a battle casting hedge fund short-sellers against a pack of small-time investors organizing online.</p><p><blockquote>在社交媒体炒作的帮助下，游戏驿站的股价今年已经飙升了九倍多，并在 1 月份引发了一场对冲基金卖空者与一群在网上组织的小投资者之间的较量。</blockquote></p><p> The company, currently a part of S&amp;P SmallCap 600, will replace Weingarten Realty Investors in the S&amp;P MidCap 400. Lakeland Financial Corp will take GameStop’s place in the S&amp;P SmallCap 600.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前是标准普尔小型股 600 指数的一部分，将取代 Weingarten Realty Investors 进入标准普尔中型股 400 指数。莱克兰金融公司（Lakeland Financial Corp）将取代游戏驿站在标准普尔小型股 600 指数中的位置。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop, like others meme stocks that have lit up Wall Street since January, has sold millions of dollars in new stock.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和其他自一月份以来点亮华尔街的模因股票一样，已经出售了数百万美元的新股。</blockquote></p><p> The company is trying to pivot to e-commerce and recently hired a former Amazon official as its new chief executive officer to steer it through the transition.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正试图转向电子商务，最近聘请了一名前亚马逊官员担任其新任首席执行官，以指导其完成转型。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop to join S&P MidCap 400 index next week<blockquote>游戏驿站将于下周加入标准普尔中型股 400 指数</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop to join S&P MidCap 400 index next week<blockquote>游戏驿站将于下周加入标准普尔中型股 400 指数</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 27 (Reuters) - S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices said on Tuesday GameStop, one of the hottest and most visible ‘meme stocks’, will join the S&amp;P MidCap 400 index next week.</p><p><blockquote>7 月 27 日（路透社）--标准普尔道琼斯指数周二表示，最热门、最引人注目的 “备忘录股票 ”之一游戏驿站将于下周加入标准普尔中型股 400 指数。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop’s shares have surged more than nine fold this year, helped by a social media hype and was the spark in January for a battle casting hedge fund short-sellers against a pack of small-time investors organizing online.</p><p><blockquote>在社交媒体炒作的帮助下，游戏驿站的股价今年已经飙升了九倍多，并在 1 月份引发了一场对冲基金卖空者与一群在网上组织的小投资者之间的较量。</blockquote></p><p> The company, currently a part of S&amp;P SmallCap 600, will replace Weingarten Realty Investors in the S&amp;P MidCap 400. Lakeland Financial Corp will take GameStop’s place in the S&amp;P SmallCap 600.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前是标准普尔小型股 600 指数的一部分，将取代 Weingarten Realty Investors 进入标准普尔中型股 400 指数。莱克兰金融公司（Lakeland Financial Corp）将取代游戏驿站在标准普尔小型股 600 指数中的位置。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop, like others meme stocks that have lit up Wall Street since January, has sold millions of dollars in new stock.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和其他自一月份以来点亮华尔街的模因股票一样，已经出售了数百万美元的新股。</blockquote></p><p> The company is trying to pivot to e-commerce and recently hired a former Amazon official as its new chief executive officer to steer it through the transition.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正试图转向电子商务，最近聘请了一名前亚马逊官员担任其新任首席执行官，以指导其完成转型。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/gamestop-sp/gamestop-to-join-sp-midcap-400-index-next-week-idUSL4N2P349N\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/gamestop-sp/gamestop-to-join-sp-midcap-400-index-next-week-idUSL4N2P349N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144879794","content_text":"July 27 (Reuters) - S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Tuesday GameStop, one of the hottest and most visible ‘meme stocks’, will join the S&P MidCap 400 index next week.\nGameStop’s shares have surged more than nine fold this year, helped by a social media hype and was the spark in January for a battle casting hedge fund short-sellers against a pack of small-time investors organizing online.\nThe company, currently a part of S&P SmallCap 600, will replace Weingarten Realty Investors in the S&P MidCap 400. Lakeland Financial Corp will take GameStop’s place in the S&P SmallCap 600.\nGameStop, like others meme stocks that have lit up Wall Street since January, has sold millions of dollars in new stock.\nThe company is trying to pivot to e-commerce and recently hired a former Amazon official as its new chief executive officer to steer it through the transition.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803663200,"gmtCreate":1627436607900,"gmtModify":1633765006544,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's a good time to buy convicted chinese stocks! Be greedy when others are fearful","listText":"It's a good time to buy convicted chinese stocks! Be greedy when others are fearful","text":"It's a good time to buy convicted chinese stocks! Be greedy when others are fearful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803663200","repostId":"2154912879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177322737,"gmtCreate":1627182060229,"gmtModify":1631883986620,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Both are good stocks to invest in! Just buy both!&nbsp;","listText":"Both are good stocks to invest in! Just buy both!&nbsp;","text":"Both are good stocks to invest in! Just buy both!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177322737","repostId":"2153936352","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177322357,"gmtCreate":1627181988479,"gmtModify":1631883689828,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Coupang price looks attractive now&nbsp;","listText":"Coupang price looks attractive now&nbsp;","text":"Coupang price looks attractive now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177322357","repostId":"2153878189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174613253,"gmtCreate":1627094433572,"gmtModify":1633768028584,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nio seems like a better buy than tsla at the moment&nbsp;","listText":"nio seems like a better buy than tsla at the moment&nbsp;","text":"nio seems like a better buy than tsla at the moment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174613253","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174619092,"gmtCreate":1627094334816,"gmtModify":1633768030093,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"seems like they're all pretty good buys&nbsp;","listText":"seems like they're all pretty good buys&nbsp;","text":"seems like they're all pretty good buys","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174619092","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175388644,"gmtCreate":1627007190488,"gmtModify":1633768829732,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oh dearrr","listText":"oh dearrr","text":"oh dearrr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175388644","repostId":"1117826249","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117826249","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627004492,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117826249?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Startup Lucid Risks SPAC Deal Collapse on No-Show Holders<blockquote>电动汽车初创公司 Lucid 因持有人缺席而面临 SPAC 交易失败的风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117826249","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The blank-check company seeking to buy electric-car startup Lucid Motors Inc. made a ","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- The blank-check company seeking to buy electric-car startup Lucid Motors Inc. made a last-minute appeal for retail shareholders to vote for the deal amid signs that it’s struggling to ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--寻求收购电动汽车初创公司 Lucid Motors Inc. 有迹象表明，该公司正在努力...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-startup-lucid-risks-collapse-152705029.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-startup-lucid-risks-collapse-152705029.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Startup Lucid Risks SPAC Deal Collapse on No-Show Holders<blockquote>电动汽车初创公司 Lucid 因持有人缺席而面临 SPAC 交易失败的风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Startup Lucid Risks SPAC Deal Collapse on No-Show Holders<blockquote>电动汽车初创公司 Lucid 因持有人缺席而面临 SPAC 交易失败的风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 09:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- The blank-check company seeking to buy electric-car startup Lucid Motors Inc. made a last-minute appeal for retail shareholders to vote for the deal amid signs that it’s struggling to ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--寻求收购电动汽车初创公司 Lucid Motors Inc. 有迹象表明，该公司正在努力...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-startup-lucid-risks-collapse-152705029.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-startup-lucid-risks-collapse-152705029.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-startup-lucid-risks-collapse-152705029.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-startup-lucid-risks-collapse-152705029.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117826249","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The blank-check company seeking to buy electric-car startup Lucid Motors Inc. made a last-minute appeal for retail shareholders to vote for the deal amid signs that it’s struggling to win their approval.\nChurchill Capital Corp. IV, the special purpose acquisition company started by investment banker Michael Klein, adjourned its Thursday shareholder meeting that was to determine the fate of the merger, pushing the decision back to the following day. It also appealed again in a new statement for shareholders to sign off on the deal. Churchill’s shares fell as much as 4.8% before retracing about half the loss.\n“The company still needs additional votes to obtain approval for that proposal by a majority of its outstanding shares,” according to the statement. “As a result, the meeting has been adjourned to obtain the required votes.”\nThe two companies are trying to woo the very investors who pushed Churchill’s shares up more than 130% this year, including individual holders who are new to investing and who may not bother to vote their relatively small stakes. To an extent, it’s another case of Wall Street having to adjust to disruptions caused by novice traders, whose influx has fueled and sometimes collided with the boom in SPAC deals.\nIn an investor update shortly after the meeting was adjourned, Klein addressed investors who may have picked up shares in Churchill via trading platforms such as Robinhood.\n“We welcome all of the new shareholders,” Klein said. “However, we need you to participate in the election process. In particular, if you are participating from the new trading platforms, the new apps that may not necessarily be directing you clearly to a voting service, we need your vote,” Klein said. He added that the process “literally takes one minute.”\nMultiple notices have been sent to shareholders, with Lucid Chief Executive Officer Peter Rawlinson singling out Robinhood users “with those diamond hands” in a video posted to social media earlier this week. The voting deadline was extended Thursday morning just hours before the meeting was set to take place. Churchill also asked investors who were holders of record to vote even if they’ve already sold their shares.\nBiggest SPAC\nChurchill’s announced merger with Lucid in February was then the largest proposed SPAC deal ever. The stock surged more than 500% at one point, bid up amid enthusiasm for the green revolution and the waning of the internal combustion engine.\nBut Lucid delayed the start of production more than once over the course of the pandemic as it faced industry-wide supply-chain issues and quality-control concerns. Rawlinson has said Lucid is on track to start production for customer deliveries in the second half of 2021.\nRawlinson, who spoke after Klein from a factory in Arizona, said the team was “energized about going into full production mode” later this year and reiterated Klein’s plea to shareholders.\nThe last proposal that needs approval will complete a business combination that “provides me with that crucial financing that I need to grow and propel this great company,” Rawlinson said. “I want to be super clear about this, I need you to vote.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9,"CCIV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178453442,"gmtCreate":1626833396386,"gmtModify":1633770562440,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"meme stocks are back!! to the moooooon!&nbsp;","listText":"meme stocks are back!! to the moooooon!&nbsp;","text":"meme stocks are back!! to the moooooon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178453442","repostId":"2153697466","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":177322357,"gmtCreate":1627181988479,"gmtModify":1631883689828,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Coupang price looks attractive now&nbsp;","listText":"Coupang price looks attractive now&nbsp;","text":"Coupang price looks attractive now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177322357","repostId":"2153878189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177322737,"gmtCreate":1627182060229,"gmtModify":1631883986620,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Both are good stocks to invest in! Just buy both!&nbsp;","listText":"Both are good stocks to invest in! Just buy both!&nbsp;","text":"Both are good stocks to invest in! Just buy both!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177322737","repostId":"2153936352","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179768586,"gmtCreate":1626578229045,"gmtModify":1633925727615,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Intrigued by this article! Can't wait to see who's this MB","listText":"Intrigued by this article! Can't wait to see who's this MB","text":"Intrigued by this article! Can't wait to see who's this MB","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179768586","repostId":"1123523681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156927859,"gmtCreate":1625191634471,"gmtModify":1633942700796,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good time to buy MU stock tonight&nbsp;","listText":"good time to buy MU stock tonight&nbsp;","text":"good time to buy MU stock tonight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156927859","repostId":"1174610224","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174610224","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625188786,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1174610224?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron and Chip Stocks Drop but Nvidia Climbs<blockquote>美光和芯片股下跌，但英伟达上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174610224","media":"thestreet","summary":"Micron Technology (MU) -Get Report and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia (NVDA) wa","content":"<p>Micron Technology&nbsp;(<b>MU</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;was bucking the trend.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技（<b>穆</b>) -Get 报告和其他芯片股周四下跌，但 Nvidia (<b>NVDA</b>）逆势而上。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;(<b>SOXX</b>) &nbsp;was down 1.4% at closing. Micron,&nbsp;the biggest decliner in the benchmark chip index, fell 5.7% to $80.11.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX 半导体 ETF（<b>索克斯</b>）收盘时下跌 1.4%。基准芯片指数跌幅最大的美光科技下跌 5.7%，至 80.11 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other semiconductor industry companies losing ground Thursday included Applied Materials&nbsp;(<b>AMAT</b>), down 3.1%; Lam Research&nbsp;(<b>LRCX</b>) -Get Report, off 2.7%, and Texas Instruments&nbsp;(<b>TXN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;was off nearly 1%.</p><p><blockquote>周四下跌的其他半导体行业公司包括应用材料公司（<b>非常</b>)，下降3.1%；林研究（<b>LRCX</b>) -Get Report，折扣 2.7%，以及德州仪器 (<b>TXN</b>) -Get Report 折扣近 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Video Preview: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech - VanEckWatch this exclusive conversation, The Evolution of Blockchain: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech. A free webinar with premiere experts, sponsored by VanEck.Volume 90%</p><p><blockquote>视频预览：加密货币的基础如何改变金融科技 - VanEckWatch 这次独家对话，区块链的演变：加密货币的基础如何改变金融科技。由VanEck赞助的premiere专家免费网络研讨会。体积90%</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Nvidia, however, were up 1.1%, afterBMO Capital Marketsanalyst Ambrish Srivastava raised his price target on the chip titan to $1,000 from $75 and affirmed an outperform rating.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在 BMO 资本市场分析师 Ambrish Srivastava 将这家芯片巨头的目标价从 75 美元上调至 1,000 美元并确认跑赢大盘评级后，英伟达股价上涨 1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The target on the Santa Clara, Calif., company is the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，这家位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司的目标是华尔街最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology shares fell even after the&nbsp;company reportedfiscal-third-quarternet income per share more than doubled on 36% higher revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美光科技公布第三财季每股净利润增加了一倍多，收入增长了 36%，但该公司股价仍下跌。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter ended June 3, Micron earned $1.74 billion, or $1.52 a share, compared with $803 million, or 71 cents, in the year-earlier quarter. The latest adjusted earnings were $1.88 a share.&nbsp;Revenue reached $7.42 billion from $5.44 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 6 月 3 日的季度，美光科技盈利 17.4 亿美元，即每股收益 1.52 美元，而去年同期为 8.03 亿美元，即 71 美分。最新调整后每股收益为 1.88 美元。收入从 54.4 亿美元达到 74.2 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Several analysts raised their price targets for Micron, but UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered the firm's price target to $110 from $120, while keeping a buy rating, according to the Fly.</p><p><blockquote>据 the Fly 报道，几位分析师提高了美光的目标价，但瑞银分析师蒂莫西·阿库里 (Timothy Arcuri) 将该公司的目标价从 120 美元下调至 110 美元，同时维持买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the company's cycle commentary should address investors' concerns regarding sustainability, but the management's outlook on cost and capital expenditures \"take a bite\" out of 2022 free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该公司的周期评论应该会解决投资者对可持续性的担忧，但管理层对成本和资本支出的展望“影响”了 2022 年的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet FounderJim Cramer said\"there's a lot of people saying 'PCs peaked,' and that's bad for Micron.\"</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet 创始人吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 表示：“很多人说‘个人电脑达到顶峰’，这对美光来说不利。”</blockquote></p><p> Cramer added that CEO Sanjay Mehrotra \"did not say what I wanted to hear, which is, 'look&nbsp;everything is on allocation.'\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默补充说，首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉“没有说出我想听到的话，那就是，‘看，一切都在分配中。’”</blockquote></p><p> \"And because he didn’t do that,\" Cramer said, \"people are saying 'you know what, it’s time to focus on other semis, and go up the food chain, not down.' And that would be Nvidia.\"</p><p><blockquote>“因为他没有这样做，”克莱默说，“人们在说'你知道吗，是时候把注意力放在其他半导体上了，向食物链的上游而不是下游发展了'。那就是英伟达”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron and Chip Stocks Drop but Nvidia Climbs<blockquote>美光和芯片股下跌，但英伟达上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron and Chip Stocks Drop but Nvidia Climbs<blockquote>美光和芯片股下跌，但英伟达上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 09:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Micron Technology&nbsp;(<b>MU</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;was bucking the trend.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技（<b>穆</b>) -Get 报告和其他芯片股周四下跌，但 Nvidia (<b>NVDA</b>）逆势而上。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;(<b>SOXX</b>) &nbsp;was down 1.4% at closing. Micron,&nbsp;the biggest decliner in the benchmark chip index, fell 5.7% to $80.11.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX 半导体 ETF（<b>索克斯</b>）收盘时下跌 1.4%。基准芯片指数跌幅最大的美光科技下跌 5.7%，至 80.11 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other semiconductor industry companies losing ground Thursday included Applied Materials&nbsp;(<b>AMAT</b>), down 3.1%; Lam Research&nbsp;(<b>LRCX</b>) -Get Report, off 2.7%, and Texas Instruments&nbsp;(<b>TXN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;was off nearly 1%.</p><p><blockquote>周四下跌的其他半导体行业公司包括应用材料公司（<b>非常</b>)，下降3.1%；林研究（<b>LRCX</b>) -Get Report，折扣 2.7%，以及德州仪器 (<b>TXN</b>) -Get Report 折扣近 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Video Preview: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech - VanEckWatch this exclusive conversation, The Evolution of Blockchain: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech. A free webinar with premiere experts, sponsored by VanEck.Volume 90%</p><p><blockquote>视频预览：加密货币的基础如何改变金融科技 - VanEckWatch 这次独家对话，区块链的演变：加密货币的基础如何改变金融科技。由VanEck赞助的premiere专家免费网络研讨会。体积90%</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Nvidia, however, were up 1.1%, afterBMO Capital Marketsanalyst Ambrish Srivastava raised his price target on the chip titan to $1,000 from $75 and affirmed an outperform rating.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在 BMO 资本市场分析师 Ambrish Srivastava 将这家芯片巨头的目标价从 75 美元上调至 1,000 美元并确认跑赢大盘评级后，英伟达股价上涨 1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The target on the Santa Clara, Calif., company is the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，这家位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司的目标是华尔街最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology shares fell even after the&nbsp;company reportedfiscal-third-quarternet income per share more than doubled on 36% higher revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美光科技公布第三财季每股净利润增加了一倍多，收入增长了 36%，但该公司股价仍下跌。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter ended June 3, Micron earned $1.74 billion, or $1.52 a share, compared with $803 million, or 71 cents, in the year-earlier quarter. The latest adjusted earnings were $1.88 a share.&nbsp;Revenue reached $7.42 billion from $5.44 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 6 月 3 日的季度，美光科技盈利 17.4 亿美元，即每股收益 1.52 美元，而去年同期为 8.03 亿美元，即 71 美分。最新调整后每股收益为 1.88 美元。收入从 54.4 亿美元达到 74.2 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Several analysts raised their price targets for Micron, but UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered the firm's price target to $110 from $120, while keeping a buy rating, according to the Fly.</p><p><blockquote>据 the Fly 报道，几位分析师提高了美光的目标价，但瑞银分析师蒂莫西·阿库里 (Timothy Arcuri) 将该公司的目标价从 120 美元下调至 110 美元，同时维持买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the company's cycle commentary should address investors' concerns regarding sustainability, but the management's outlook on cost and capital expenditures \"take a bite\" out of 2022 free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该公司的周期评论应该会解决投资者对可持续性的担忧，但管理层对成本和资本支出的展望“影响”了 2022 年的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet FounderJim Cramer said\"there's a lot of people saying 'PCs peaked,' and that's bad for Micron.\"</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet 创始人吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 表示：“很多人说‘个人电脑达到顶峰’，这对美光来说不利。”</blockquote></p><p> Cramer added that CEO Sanjay Mehrotra \"did not say what I wanted to hear, which is, 'look&nbsp;everything is on allocation.'\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默补充说，首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉“没有说出我想听到的话，那就是，‘看，一切都在分配中。’”</blockquote></p><p> \"And because he didn’t do that,\" Cramer said, \"people are saying 'you know what, it’s time to focus on other semis, and go up the food chain, not down.' And that would be Nvidia.\"</p><p><blockquote>“因为他没有这样做，”克莱默说，“人们在说'你知道吗，是时候把注意力放在其他半导体上了，向食物链的上游而不是下游发展了'。那就是英伟达”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-sinks-most-chip-stocks-but-nvidia-climbs?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","MU":"美光科技","TXN":"德州仪器","LRCX":"拉姆研究","AMAT":"应用材料"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-sinks-most-chip-stocks-but-nvidia-climbs?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174610224","content_text":"Micron Technology (MU) -Get Report and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia (NVDA) was bucking the trend.\nThe iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)  was down 1.4% at closing. Micron, the biggest decliner in the benchmark chip index, fell 5.7% to $80.11.\nOther semiconductor industry companies losing ground Thursday included Applied Materials (AMAT), down 3.1%; Lam Research (LRCX) -Get Report, off 2.7%, and Texas Instruments (TXN) -Get Report was off nearly 1%.\nVideo Preview: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech - VanEckWatch this exclusive conversation, The Evolution of Blockchain: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech. A free webinar with premiere experts, sponsored by VanEck.Volume 90%\nShares of Nvidia, however, were up 1.1%, afterBMO Capital Marketsanalyst Ambrish Srivastava raised his price target on the chip titan to $1,000 from $75 and affirmed an outperform rating.\nThe target on the Santa Clara, Calif., company is the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.\nMicron Technology shares fell even after the company reportedfiscal-third-quarternet income per share more than doubled on 36% higher revenue.\nFor the quarter ended June 3, Micron earned $1.74 billion, or $1.52 a share, compared with $803 million, or 71 cents, in the year-earlier quarter. The latest adjusted earnings were $1.88 a share. Revenue reached $7.42 billion from $5.44 billion.\nSeveral analysts raised their price targets for Micron, but UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered the firm's price target to $110 from $120, while keeping a buy rating, according to the Fly.\nHe noted that the company's cycle commentary should address investors' concerns regarding sustainability, but the management's outlook on cost and capital expenditures \"take a bite\" out of 2022 free cash flows.\nTheStreet FounderJim Cramer said\"there's a lot of people saying 'PCs peaked,' and that's bad for Micron.\"\nCramer added that CEO Sanjay Mehrotra \"did not say what I wanted to hear, which is, 'look everything is on allocation.'\"\n\"And because he didn’t do that,\" Cramer said, \"people are saying 'you know what, it’s time to focus on other semis, and go up the food chain, not down.' And that would be Nvidia.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LRCX":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"TXN":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893002499,"gmtCreate":1628218537811,"gmtModify":1631889238109,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current&nbsp;price!&nbsp;","listText":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current&nbsp;price!&nbsp;","text":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current price!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893002499","repostId":"1150788850","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128187926,"gmtCreate":1624506276365,"gmtModify":1634005107608,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"CVX is good dividend buy!&nbsp;","listText":"CVX is good dividend buy!&nbsp;","text":"CVX is good dividend buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128187926","repostId":"1182818110","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833523247,"gmtCreate":1629250871889,"gmtModify":1631889238099,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"buy both!!&nbsp;","listText":"buy both!!&nbsp;","text":"buy both!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833523247","repostId":"1141614406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171263935,"gmtCreate":1626746566327,"gmtModify":1633771447413,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"correction is healthy for the market and is due sooner or later","listText":"correction is healthy for the market and is due sooner or later","text":"correction is healthy for the market and is due sooner or later","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171263935","repostId":"1128021964","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128021964","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626744033,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1128021964?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 09:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'We Are More Than Due For Some Turbulence': Experts React To Stock Market's Worst Day In Months<blockquote>“我们理应出现一些动荡”：专家对股市几个月来最糟糕的一天做出反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128021964","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust bounced off its early Monday lows but still closed down 1.4%, while the D","content":"<p><div> The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust bounced off its early Monday lows but still closed down 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 725 points for its worst day of 2021. The primary catalyst ...</p><p><blockquote><div>SPDR标普500 ETF信托从周一早些时候的低点反弹，但收盘仍下跌1.4%，而道琼斯工业平均指数下跌725点，创下2021年最糟糕的一天。主要催化剂……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22044985/we-are-more-than-due-for-some-turbulence-experts-react-to-stock-markets-worst-day-i\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22044985/we-are-more-than-due-for-some-turbulence-experts-react-to-stock-markets-worst-day-i\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'We Are More Than Due For Some Turbulence': Experts React To Stock Market's Worst Day In Months<blockquote>“我们理应出现一些动荡”：专家对股市几个月来最糟糕的一天做出反应</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'We Are More Than Due For Some Turbulence': Experts React To Stock Market's Worst Day In Months<blockquote>“我们理应出现一些动荡”：专家对股市几个月来最糟糕的一天做出反应</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 09:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust bounced off its early Monday lows but still closed down 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 725 points for its worst day of 2021. The primary catalyst ...</p><p><blockquote><div>SPDR标普500 ETF信托从周一早些时候的低点反弹，但收盘仍下跌1.4%，而道琼斯工业平均指数下跌725点，创下2021年最糟糕的一天。主要催化剂……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22044985/we-are-more-than-due-for-some-turbulence-experts-react-to-stock-markets-worst-day-i\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22044985/we-are-more-than-due-for-some-turbulence-experts-react-to-stock-markets-worst-day-i\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22044985/we-are-more-than-due-for-some-turbulence-experts-react-to-stock-markets-worst-day-i\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22044985/we-are-more-than-due-for-some-turbulence-experts-react-to-stock-markets-worst-day-i","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128021964","content_text":"The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust bounced off its early Monday lows but still closed down 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 725 points for its worst day of 2021.\nThe primary catalyst driving the market lower appears to be a rise in COVID-19 cases (specifically in regards to the Delta variant) and the potential for another wave of infections to derail the global economic recovery.\nLast week, the U.S. averaged 30,000 new COVID cases over a seven-day stretch, up sharply from the 11,000 cases it was averaging a month ago. At the same time, oil prices dropped after OPEC and its global allies agreed to start phasing out production cuts starting in August. The new plan calls for 5.8 million barrels per day of oil production to return completely by September 2022.\nCramer’s Take:CNBC's Jim Cramer said COVID-19 numbers and oil prices are a devastating one-two punch for stock prices.\n“Market liked covid down and oil up..not getting what it wants,”Cramer tweeted.\nHowever, Cramer urged long-term investors to look beyond the recent spike in COVID cases.\n“I just think that where we are there’s just so much fear in the market, and I just think that the asymptomatic [COVID] is not as dangerous, the deaths are not going up that much. So I’m not buying that this is the end of the bull market,”Cramer said.\nKeeping Perspective:Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist for LPL Financial, said investors should remember to keep the market sell-off in perspective.\n“Fears over peak economic data and a resurgence in COVID cases has the market on edge today. Of course, don't forget that the S&P 500 hasn't had a 5% correction since October, so you could say we are more than due for some turbulence,” Detrick said.\nPeter Essele, Head of Investment Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, said the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to near their lowest levels of the year on Monday was indicative of the market’s collective flight to safety.\n“Fear of stagflation will be a major concern for investors if a resurgence in COVID infections causes economies to slow while consumer prices continue an upward trajectory. The strong performance of inflation-linked bonds as of late may be an indication that those fears are setting in, with the bus already having left the station,” Essele said.\nBenzinga’s Take:It certainly feels scary when the market drops 1.4% in a single day. But the current COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to be extremely effective against all variants of the virus, and theWorld Health Organizationhas said most vaccinated people who test positive for the delta strain of COVID are asymptomatic.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148650663,"gmtCreate":1625973256052,"gmtModify":1633931212014,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"xpev is better than nio imo","listText":"xpev is better than nio imo","text":"xpev is better than nio imo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148650663","repostId":"1184476863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184476863","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625967744,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184476863?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电气化的领导者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184476863","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li>  <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li>  <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的强劲增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在未来几个季度继续提高其营收业绩，并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健的成长型公司，如果您是一家动量型投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robert Way/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的强劲增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在未来几个季度继续提高其营收业绩，并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在未来几年成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健的增长公司，如果您是一位动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest&nbsp;article&nbsp;about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，该公司生产一款名为 G3 的 SUV 和一款名为 P7 的轿车。此外，该公司计划在 9 月份发布一款名为 G3i 的 SUV 升级版，并在年底前发布一款新型家庭友好型轿车 P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间里它的表现都优于标普500指数，自我们 6 月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是，它成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在改善交付方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在 6 月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的 6,565 辆汽车，同比增长 617%。此外，第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，上半年交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到疫情的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超过了 15,500 - 16,000 辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这一势头很可能至少会持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势在于其在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将制造或销售外包给其他国家，因为它有巨大的当地市场可以销售回国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为它目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同出资的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉完成其第三个制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，特斯拉（TSLA）2020年仅在华售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，如此大量的产能增加表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争，并在未来增加其在内地的牵引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&amp;D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要的事实是，小鹏在国内比特斯拉等技术更先进。其近一半的研发人员致力于自动驾驶软件，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在未来几年内成为首批达到 5 级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果该软件的最新版本记得车辆的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库里。车辆停放之前。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了几个。首先，小鹏贸易的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值来看，可以被认为是很有价值的。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合暴露于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，中美潜在贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会被退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所进行了另一次IPO，采用双重主要上市结构，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者有能力通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务对外部市场的敞口不大，潜在贸易战的影响将微乎其微。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年内大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以有把握地假设，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的增长空间，考虑到其在Q2的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测显示，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从 2020 财年的 90 万美元增长 364%，增至 2022 财年的 41.8 亿美元，而其每股收益亏损预计也将从 2021 财年第二季度的 -0.33 美元降至第三季度和第四季度的 -0.06 美元。最重要的是，该公司在第一季度末拥有 51.2 亿美元现金，长期债务仅为 4.97 亿美元，而且由于最近香港发行，其流动性头寸已经约为 70 亿美元。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能被要求筹集新债务或通过发行新股来为其扩张提供资金来稀释股东。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长型股票，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为未来几个月即将推出的 P5 轿车可能会增加交付量和产能，这可能会将其股价推向更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划在短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的好仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电气化的领导者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电气化的领导者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li>  <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li>  <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的强劲增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在未来几个季度继续提高其营收业绩，并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健的成长型公司，如果您是一家动量型投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robert Way/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的强劲增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在未来几个季度继续提高其营收业绩，并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在未来几年成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健的增长公司，如果您是一位动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest&nbsp;article&nbsp;about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，该公司生产一款名为 G3 的 SUV 和一款名为 P7 的轿车。此外，该公司计划在 9 月份发布一款名为 G3i 的 SUV 升级版，并在年底前发布一款新型家庭友好型轿车 P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间里它的表现都优于标普500指数，自我们 6 月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是，它成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在改善交付方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在 6 月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的 6,565 辆汽车，同比增长 617%。此外，第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，上半年交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到疫情的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超过了 15,500 - 16,000 辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这一势头很可能至少会持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势在于其在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将制造或销售外包给其他国家，因为它有巨大的当地市场可以销售回国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为它目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同出资的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉完成其第三个制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，特斯拉（TSLA）2020年仅在华售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，如此大量的产能增加表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争，并在未来增加其在内地的牵引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&amp;D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要的事实是，小鹏在国内比特斯拉等技术更先进。其近一半的研发人员致力于自动驾驶软件，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在未来几年内成为首批达到 5 级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果该软件的最新版本记得车辆的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库里。车辆停放之前。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了几个。首先，小鹏贸易的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值来看，可以被认为是很有价值的。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合暴露于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，中美潜在贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会被退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所进行了另一次IPO，采用双重主要上市结构，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者有能力通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务对外部市场的敞口不大，潜在贸易战的影响将微乎其微。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年内大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以有把握地假设，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的增长空间，考虑到其在Q2的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测显示，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从 2020 财年的 90 万美元增长 364%，增至 2022 财年的 41.8 亿美元，而其每股收益亏损预计也将从 2021 财年第二季度的 -0.33 美元降至第三季度和第四季度的 -0.06 美元。最重要的是，该公司在第一季度末拥有 51.2 亿美元现金，长期债务仅为 4.97 亿美元，而且由于最近香港发行，其流动性头寸已经约为 70 亿美元。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能被要求筹集新债务或通过发行新股来为其扩张提供资金来稀释股东。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长型股票，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为未来几个月即将推出的 P5 轿车可能会增加交付量和产能，这可能会将其股价推向更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划在短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的好仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏集团-W","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184476863","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.\nBy being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.\nWe continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\n\nRobert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\nFiring On All Cylinders\nXPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest article about its business was published in June.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nOne of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.\nSource:InsideEVs\nThe biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.\nAnother important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.\nRisks\nAs for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.\nIn addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.\nTakeaway\nDespite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.\nThe latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.\nWith all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148627542,"gmtCreate":1625973211086,"gmtModify":1633931212907,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"RBLX is definitely a good buy. buy now!!&nbsp;","listText":"RBLX is definitely a good buy. buy now!!&nbsp;","text":"RBLX is definitely a good buy. buy now!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148627542","repostId":"2150463301","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}