ChoongHwee
2021-08-02
Nice
Amazon's 'Disappointing' Quarterly Results Are A Gift<blockquote>亚马逊“令人失望”的季度业绩是一份礼物</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":805191146,"tweetId":"805191146","gmtCreate":1627864192885,"gmtModify":1633755880494,"author":{"id":3561932898161790,"idStr":"3561932898161790","authorId":3561932898161790,"authorIdStr":"3561932898161790","name":"ChoongHwee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice</p></body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805191146","repostId":1159609817,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159609817","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627864062,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159609817?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon's 'Disappointing' Quarterly Results Are A Gift<blockquote>亚马逊“令人失望”的季度业绩是一份礼物</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159609817","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDespite what some have characterized as a disappointing quarter, Amazon remains one of the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Despite what some have characterized as a disappointing quarter, Amazon remains one of the highest quality stocks in the market with a long runway still ahead.</li> <li>After previous pandemic-fueled results and this year's reopening excitement, the results were bound to retreat at the margin leaving the new CEO with some upcoming heavy lifting.</li> <li>Despair not! This is an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate shares incrementally as the stock retreats.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90647e71b9768638673a9e4cdebe9fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1050\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管有些人认为这个季度令人失望，但亚马逊仍然是市场上质量最高的股票之一，而且还有很长的路要走。</li><li>在经历了之前大流行推动的业绩和今年重新开放的兴奋之后，业绩注定会小幅回落，让新任首席执行官面临一些即将到来的繁重工作。</li><li>不要绝望！对于长期投资者来说，这是一个随着股票下跌而逐步积累股票的机会。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文：</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon (AMZN) (also, \"the Company\" hereafter) reported results that disappointed some who may not have anticipated a retreat from the pandemic-fueled growth rates seen previously. As an investor who is still accumulating chips, I see this as more opportunity than setback and see the stock's retreat as missing the forest for the trees - a market hallmark. The metrics are stronger than many reports indicate and this pullback also acts to keep the stock from going euphoric and decoupling from underlying metrics. Accumulating incrementally during the likely brief downtrend may be the best course of action.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊（AMZN）（以下简称“公司”）公布的业绩令一些人感到失望，他们可能没有预料到之前大流行推动的增长率会回落。作为一名仍在积累筹码的投资者，我认为这更多的是机会而不是挫折，并认为该股的下跌是只见树木不见森林——这是市场的标志。这些指标比许多报告显示的要强，这种回调也有助于防止该股情绪高涨并与基础指标脱钩。在可能的短暂下跌趋势中逐步积累可能是最好的行动方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>By The Numbers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>按数字</b></blockquote></p><p> Q2 2021 top-line revenue came in at $113B compared to Q1 2021 $108.5B, a 4% quarterly increase. Revenue was up 27% compared to Q2 2020. EBITDA for Q2 2021 was up a whopping 36% over the same period in 2020, however was down 14% from Q1 2021. However, due to the cyclical nature of retail, I prefer to analyze the data using the trailing twelve months (TTMs) by quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度的营收为$113B，而2021年第一季度为$1085亿B，季度增长4%。与2020年第二季度相比，收入增长了27%。Q2 2021的EBITDA比2020年同期增长了36%，但比Q1 2021下降了14%。然而，由于零售业的周期性，我更喜欢按季度使用过去12个月(TTM)来分析数据。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1ed6c9704fb13ff3e6023f99bbfef6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据创建的图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the TTMs Amazon generated $443B in revenues and an impressive $59B in EBITDA. While growth certainly slowed from Q1 2021 savvy investors understand that data does not exist in a vacuum and must be put in proper context. Covid created immense growth that was known to be inorganic as many who would typically frequent brick-and-mortar stores shopped from home. Many of these folks will continue to frequent Amazon, while some will return to previous habits. Still, others likely returned to retail upon lifting of restrictions just to leave the house and feel normal and will utilize online retail more once the novelty wears off. The same logic applies to Amazon's digital offerings. For these reasons, Q2 2021 growth was destined to slow from the breakneck pace of the prior periods, however, the Company still managed to grow revenue nearly 6% over the prior TTMs and, as stated above, 4% over Q1 2021 - no small feat. The Delta variant and likely return to restrictions and caution from shoppers will again change the game for the final 2 months of Q3 and likely for Q4 2021. Frankly, and amazingly, I believe we are about to be caught flat-footed against this variant which will be bad for many, but possibly positive for Amazon's sales in Q3 and Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在TTMs期间，亚马逊创造了4430亿美元的收入和令人印象深刻的590亿美元的EBITDA。尽管增长肯定比2021年第一季度有所放缓，但精明的投资者明白，数据并不存在于真空中，必须放在适当的背景下。Covid创造了巨大的增长，众所周知，这种增长是无机的，因为许多通常经常去实体店购物的人会在家购物。这些人中的许多人将继续经常光顾亚马逊，而一些人将恢复以前的习惯。尽管如此，其他人可能会在限制解除后重返零售业，只是为了离开家，感觉正常，一旦新鲜感消失，他们会更多地利用在线零售。同样的逻辑也适用于亚马逊的数字产品。由于这些原因，Q2 2021的增长注定会比之前时期的极快速度放缓，然而，该公司的收入仍然比之前的TTM增长了近6%，如上所述，比Q1 2021增长了4%——这不是一个小壮举。德尔塔变异毒株以及购物者可能回归的限制和谨慎将再次改变第三季度最后两个月以及2021年第四季度的游戏规则。坦率地说，令人惊讶的是，我相信我们即将对这种变体措手不及，这对许多人来说是不利的，但可能对亚马逊2021年第三季度和第四季度的销售是积极的。</blockquote></p><p> The data on a per share basis tells much the same story as above.</p><p><blockquote>每股数据讲述了与上述大致相同的故事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2579a946b7ba2fabbba19737ce423223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据创建的图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue growth per share is solid while EBITDA and cash from operations per share have stalled. Many have expressed concern with the decrease in cash flow from operations, however, I prefer to use levered free cash flow (LFCF) as I believe it is a better metric to determine true cash available to shareholders. Cash flow from operations (CFO) is impacted by temporary changes in accounts receivable and accounts payable (changes in working capital), and does not account for capital expenditures (CAPEX) or debt payments. LFCF is a better measure of the cash available once all obligations have been met.</p><p><blockquote>每股收入增长稳健，而EBITDA和每股运营现金却停滞不前。许多人对运营现金流的减少表示担忧，但是，我更喜欢使用杠杆自由现金流（LFCF），因为我相信它是确定股东可用真实现金的更好指标。运营现金流（CFO）受到应收账款和应付账款临时变化（营运资金变化）的影响，不考虑资本支出（CAPEX）或债务支付。LFCF是衡量履行所有义务后可用现金的更好指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1bd80529fd7e9ffd40dd4bc8e8eeb1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据创建的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Company's LFCF is down from the Covid holiday boom, but still rose significantly from 2019 results and was still up on a quarterly basis.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的LFCF较新冠疫情假期热潮有所下降，但仍较2019年业绩大幅上升，并且仍按季度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Further, when measuring results, the quality of the earnings can be brought to light by measuring LFCF as a percentage of either net income or EBITDA. I compared Amazon's LFCF/EBITDA to some of the most successful companies, including a lesser-known name, Intuitive Surgical, Inc (ISRG) that, if you are unfamiliar with this company, I encourage you to explore this juggernauthereandhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在衡量业绩时，可以通过衡量LFCF占净利润或EBITDA的百分比来揭示收益的质量。我将亚马逊的LFCF/EBITDA与一些最成功的公司进行了比较，包括一个鲜为人知的名字，Intuitive Surgical，Inc(ISRG)，如果您不熟悉这家公司，我鼓励您在这里和这里探索这家巨头。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/663cb272a8fcfb13d7585052057e80d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha *Stocks with different fiscal years are as of the closest period*</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表由作者根据Seeking Alpha*不同财政年度的股票截至最近的时期*</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As shown, Amazon has come back to earth a bit from the pandemic heights, however still produces better LFCF/EBITDA consistently more than retail competitor Walmart (WMT), and also Microsoft (MSFT) and NVIDIA (NVDA), while lagging Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and Apple (AAPL) which generally spend much less on CAPEX. It is also clear why I am so bullish on Intuitive Surgical. For Amazon, it is apparent that the pandemic boost lost steam in Q2 2021, however, the results were still quite positive.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，亚马逊已经从大流行的高度恢复了一些，但亚马逊的LFCF/EBITDA仍然比零售竞争对手沃尔玛(WMT)、微软(MSFT)和英伟达(NVDA)更好，同时落后于Visa(V)、万事达卡(MA)和苹果(AAPL)的资本支出通常要少得多。我如此看好直觉外科的原因也很清楚。对于亚马逊来说，很明显，疫情的提振在2021年第二季度失去了动力，然而，结果仍然相当积极。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation & Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与机会</b></blockquote></p><p> While Amazon's quarter was impressive by most standards, it disappointed many who decided to take profits last week.</p><p><blockquote>尽管以大多数标准来看，亚马逊的季度业绩令人印象深刻，但它让许多上周决定获利了结的人感到失望。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4294120fff82efc817695d0fd339b97d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For long-term investors, this is not necessarily a negative. If one is still adding money to investment accounts or looking to take profits in other holdings and reallocate funds, the drawback represents an opportunity. I prefer to accumulate incrementally during a downturn rather than trying to call a bottom. How long it continues and how low the stock falls is unknown, however, I believe the downtrend will be short-lived. Another reason not to be rattled by the sell-off last week is that the stock has avoided the dreaded euphoria that likely would have caused the valuation to decouple from results leaving long-term investors in a poor place to add shares. The pullback will allow the fundamentals to catch up to the valuation a bit. Below I have compared Amazon's valuation to some of the outstanding companies above and also added digital rival Netflix (NFLX), Seeking Alpha fan-favorite Palantir (PLTR), and the ever-polarizing Tesla (TSLA) for additional context.</p><p><blockquote>对于长期投资者来说，这不一定是负面的。如果一个人仍在向投资账户添加资金，或者希望在其他持股中获利并重新分配资金，那么缺点就代表着一个机会。我更喜欢在经济低迷时期逐步积累，而不是试图看涨期权触底。持续多久以及股价跌到多低尚不得而知，不过，我相信下跌趋势将是短暂的。没有被上周的抛售惊慌失措的另一个原因是，该股避免了可怕的兴奋情绪，这种情绪可能会导致估值与业绩脱钩，使长期投资者难以增持股票。回调将使基本面稍微赶上估值。下面我将Amazon的估值与上述一些杰出公司进行了比较，并添加了数字竞争对手Netflix(NFLX)、Seeking Alpha粉丝最喜欢的Palantir(PLTR)和日益两极分化的特斯拉(TSLA)以获取更多背景信息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731887f1f1ce0523e160d6d84ab6926d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from Y-charts. FWD revenue growth from Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者用Y形图中的数据创建的图表。Seeking Alpha带来的FWD收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that forward revenue growth estimates (YOY) are listed for consideration.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，列出了前瞻性收入增长预测（同比）以供考虑。</blockquote></p><p> I have also seen concern expressed for the enterprise value to cash from operations (EV/CFO), however, this does not convince me that there is long-term trouble in this area, especially in light of the increase in LFCF.</p><p><blockquote>我也看到了对企业运营现金价值（EV/CFO）的担忧，但是，这并不能让我相信这一领域存在长期问题，特别是考虑到LFCF的增加。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aae66565cdd74d312dd57dc4427046f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the short interest can be a useful tool to determine when the stock has become overvalued. Amazon is again running less than 1% of the float short, which is an indication that the downswing may be short and shallow.</p><p><blockquote>最后，空头利息可以成为确定股票何时被高估的有用工具。亚马逊的流通量再次不足1%，这表明下跌可能是短暂而浅的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f017302a7066ca29108962726a968d48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The short interest is near historic lows, pandemic notwithstanding, and after a brief rise as shares touched $3,700 is again falling. The short interest at this level tells me that while some grumble about the Company's value, few are willing to put their money where their mouth is at this point. I have included the short interest of other stocks discussed below for comparison.</p><p><blockquote>尽管发生了大流行，空头兴趣仍接近历史低点，并且在股价触及3,700美元后短暂上涨后再次下跌。这个水平的空头兴趣告诉我，虽然有些人抱怨公司的价值，但很少有人愿意在这一点上把钱花在他们的嘴上。我已经包括了下面讨论的其他股票的空头利息以进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bad5c8a348a24ddbc7043e6299aa254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from TD Ameritrade.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者用TD Ameritrade的数据创建的图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>CEO Transition & Obstacles Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首席执行官过渡和未来的障碍</b></blockquote></p><p> Jeff Bezos is an extremely savvy executive and likely could see that, post-pandemic, the heavy lifting would begin in earnest. He chose to enjoy his billions and take a rocket into space while on top. I certainly don't blame him. Meanwhile, new CEO Andy Jassy assumes command after 24 years with the Company. While some may see Bezos stepping down as a negative, it can also allow an opportunity for the new CEO with a fresh voice and something to prove. Apple has thrived after the transition from Steve Jobs to Tim Cook and hopefully, this will also be the case at Amazon. His job won't be easy as congress seeks increased regulations on large tech and the labor force presents challenges on multiple fronts. Jassy is largely credited for growing the highly profitable AWS arm of the Company which shows from where management believes much of the future growth is likely to come.</p><p><blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯是一位非常精明的高管，他可能会看到，在大流行之后，繁重的工作将正式开始。他选择享受他的数十亿美元，并在顶端乘坐火箭进入太空。我当然不怪他。与此同时，新任首席执行官安迪·贾西(Andy Jassy)在公司工作了24年后上任。虽然有些人可能认为贝佐斯的辞职是一个负面消息，但这也可以为新任首席执行官提供一个拥有新鲜声音和证明的机会。苹果在从史蒂夫·乔布斯到蒂姆·库克的转变之后蓬勃发展，希望亚马逊也能如此。他的工作并不容易，因为国会寻求加强对大型科技公司的监管，而劳动力在多个方面面临挑战。Jassy在很大程度上因发展了该公司高利润的AWS部门而受到赞誉，这表明管理层认为未来的大部分增长可能来自哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Uncertainties</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险及不明朗因素</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As mentioned above, congressional leaders from both parties have expressed concerns with the power of large tech companies and pledged to reign them in. This could negatively affect results and there is the possibility that some large tech companies would be forced to spin-off segments. Spin-offs would not necessarily be detrimental to current shareholders, however, the market despises uncertainty and this could cause the share price to further retreat. On the other hand, congress is full of tough talk and weak action so I am skeptical.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，两党的国会领导人都对大型科技公司的力量表示担忧，并承诺控制它们。这可能会对业绩产生负面影响，一些大型科技公司可能会被迫分拆细分市场。分拆不一定对现有股东不利，但市场鄙视不确定性，这可能会导致股价进一步回落。另一方面，国会充满了强硬的言论和软弱的行动，所以我持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> Also mentioned above are the labor issues. The workforce becoming unionized could affect profit margins. More generally, the entire labor market is tight at the moment causing shortages of workers and rising wages. Rising wages across the economy will also serve to increase the spending power of consumers which has potential benefits for a company like Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>上面还提到了劳工问题。劳动力加入工会可能会影响利润率。更一般地说，目前整个劳动力市场紧张，导致工人短缺和工资上涨。整个经济中工资的上涨也将有助于提高消费者的消费能力，这对亚马逊这样的公司来说有潜在的好处。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasnot impressedby Q2 2021 earnings and the stock took a substantial hit. This downtrend may continue while investors exercise caution post-Bezos and post-retail reopening, which is why I recommend incremental buying.</p><p><blockquote>市场对2021年第二季度的盈利并不满意，该股遭受了重大打击。这种下跌趋势可能会持续下去，而投资者在贝佐斯和零售重新开放后保持谨慎，这就是为什么我建议增量买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> When I see a headline on Seeking Alpha that \"Department store stocks rally, while online retailers sell off\", I see an opportunity. This development is remarkably short-sighted and unlikely to last.</p><p><blockquote>当我在Seeking Alpha上看到“百货公司股票上涨，而在线零售商抛售”的标题时，我看到了一个机会。这种发展非常短视，不太可能持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's Q2 2021 results have caused many investors to take profits and some to claim that the Company's stellar run is over. The numbers, while tempered from the pandemic highs, are still impressive and a growth runway remains in the Company's most profitable segments. The new CEO will face the coming challenges with heaps of LFCF and the stock's valuation has become more favorable to long-term investors. This is not the first time the stock has pulled back from a seemingly weak quarter and in every instance, the correct move for long-term investors is crystal clear.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊2021年第二季度的业绩导致许多投资者获利了结，一些投资者声称该公司的辉煌业绩已经结束。这些数字虽然较大流行的高点有所缓和，但仍然令人印象深刻，该公司最赚钱的部门仍有增长跑道。新任首席执行官将面临大量LFCF的挑战，而且该股的估值对长期投资者来说变得更加有利。这并不是该股第一次从看似疲软的季度中回调，在每种情况下，长期投资者的正确举动都是非常明确的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon's 'Disappointing' Quarterly Results Are A Gift<blockquote>亚马逊“令人失望”的季度业绩是一份礼物</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon's 'Disappointing' Quarterly Results Are A Gift<blockquote>亚马逊“令人失望”的季度业绩是一份礼物</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 08:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Despite what some have characterized as a disappointing quarter, Amazon remains one of the highest quality stocks in the market with a long runway still ahead.</li> <li>After previous pandemic-fueled results and this year's reopening excitement, the results were bound to retreat at the margin leaving the new CEO with some upcoming heavy lifting.</li> <li>Despair not! This is an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate shares incrementally as the stock retreats.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90647e71b9768638673a9e4cdebe9fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1050\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管有些人认为这个季度令人失望，但亚马逊仍然是市场上质量最高的股票之一，而且还有很长的路要走。</li><li>在经历了之前大流行推动的业绩和今年重新开放的兴奋之后，业绩注定会小幅回落，让新任首席执行官面临一些即将到来的繁重工作。</li><li>不要绝望！对于长期投资者来说，这是一个随着股票下跌而逐步积累股票的机会。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文：</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon (AMZN) (also, \"the Company\" hereafter) reported results that disappointed some who may not have anticipated a retreat from the pandemic-fueled growth rates seen previously. As an investor who is still accumulating chips, I see this as more opportunity than setback and see the stock's retreat as missing the forest for the trees - a market hallmark. The metrics are stronger than many reports indicate and this pullback also acts to keep the stock from going euphoric and decoupling from underlying metrics. Accumulating incrementally during the likely brief downtrend may be the best course of action.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊（AMZN）（以下简称“公司”）公布的业绩令一些人感到失望，他们可能没有预料到之前大流行推动的增长率会回落。作为一名仍在积累筹码的投资者，我认为这更多的是机会而不是挫折，并认为该股的下跌是只见树木不见森林——这是市场的标志。这些指标比许多报告显示的要强，这种回调也有助于防止该股情绪高涨并与基础指标脱钩。在可能的短暂下跌趋势中逐步积累可能是最好的行动方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>By The Numbers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>按数字</b></blockquote></p><p> Q2 2021 top-line revenue came in at $113B compared to Q1 2021 $108.5B, a 4% quarterly increase. Revenue was up 27% compared to Q2 2020. EBITDA for Q2 2021 was up a whopping 36% over the same period in 2020, however was down 14% from Q1 2021. However, due to the cyclical nature of retail, I prefer to analyze the data using the trailing twelve months (TTMs) by quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度的营收为$113B，而2021年第一季度为$1085亿B，季度增长4%。与2020年第二季度相比，收入增长了27%。Q2 2021的EBITDA比2020年同期增长了36%，但比Q1 2021下降了14%。然而，由于零售业的周期性，我更喜欢按季度使用过去12个月(TTM)来分析数据。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1ed6c9704fb13ff3e6023f99bbfef6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据创建的图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the TTMs Amazon generated $443B in revenues and an impressive $59B in EBITDA. While growth certainly slowed from Q1 2021 savvy investors understand that data does not exist in a vacuum and must be put in proper context. Covid created immense growth that was known to be inorganic as many who would typically frequent brick-and-mortar stores shopped from home. Many of these folks will continue to frequent Amazon, while some will return to previous habits. Still, others likely returned to retail upon lifting of restrictions just to leave the house and feel normal and will utilize online retail more once the novelty wears off. The same logic applies to Amazon's digital offerings. For these reasons, Q2 2021 growth was destined to slow from the breakneck pace of the prior periods, however, the Company still managed to grow revenue nearly 6% over the prior TTMs and, as stated above, 4% over Q1 2021 - no small feat. The Delta variant and likely return to restrictions and caution from shoppers will again change the game for the final 2 months of Q3 and likely for Q4 2021. Frankly, and amazingly, I believe we are about to be caught flat-footed against this variant which will be bad for many, but possibly positive for Amazon's sales in Q3 and Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在TTMs期间，亚马逊创造了4430亿美元的收入和令人印象深刻的590亿美元的EBITDA。尽管增长肯定比2021年第一季度有所放缓，但精明的投资者明白，数据并不存在于真空中，必须放在适当的背景下。Covid创造了巨大的增长，众所周知，这种增长是无机的，因为许多通常经常去实体店购物的人会在家购物。这些人中的许多人将继续经常光顾亚马逊，而一些人将恢复以前的习惯。尽管如此，其他人可能会在限制解除后重返零售业，只是为了离开家，感觉正常，一旦新鲜感消失，他们会更多地利用在线零售。同样的逻辑也适用于亚马逊的数字产品。由于这些原因，Q2 2021的增长注定会比之前时期的极快速度放缓，然而，该公司的收入仍然比之前的TTM增长了近6%，如上所述，比Q1 2021增长了4%——这不是一个小壮举。德尔塔变异毒株以及购物者可能回归的限制和谨慎将再次改变第三季度最后两个月以及2021年第四季度的游戏规则。坦率地说，令人惊讶的是，我相信我们即将对这种变体措手不及，这对许多人来说是不利的，但可能对亚马逊2021年第三季度和第四季度的销售是积极的。</blockquote></p><p> The data on a per share basis tells much the same story as above.</p><p><blockquote>每股数据讲述了与上述大致相同的故事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2579a946b7ba2fabbba19737ce423223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据创建的图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue growth per share is solid while EBITDA and cash from operations per share have stalled. Many have expressed concern with the decrease in cash flow from operations, however, I prefer to use levered free cash flow (LFCF) as I believe it is a better metric to determine true cash available to shareholders. Cash flow from operations (CFO) is impacted by temporary changes in accounts receivable and accounts payable (changes in working capital), and does not account for capital expenditures (CAPEX) or debt payments. LFCF is a better measure of the cash available once all obligations have been met.</p><p><blockquote>每股收入增长稳健，而EBITDA和每股运营现金却停滞不前。许多人对运营现金流的减少表示担忧，但是，我更喜欢使用杠杆自由现金流（LFCF），因为我相信它是确定股东可用真实现金的更好指标。运营现金流（CFO）受到应收账款和应付账款临时变化（营运资金变化）的影响，不考虑资本支出（CAPEX）或债务支付。LFCF是衡量履行所有义务后可用现金的更好指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1bd80529fd7e9ffd40dd4bc8e8eeb1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据创建的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Company's LFCF is down from the Covid holiday boom, but still rose significantly from 2019 results and was still up on a quarterly basis.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的LFCF较新冠疫情假期热潮有所下降，但仍较2019年业绩大幅上升，并且仍按季度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Further, when measuring results, the quality of the earnings can be brought to light by measuring LFCF as a percentage of either net income or EBITDA. I compared Amazon's LFCF/EBITDA to some of the most successful companies, including a lesser-known name, Intuitive Surgical, Inc (ISRG) that, if you are unfamiliar with this company, I encourage you to explore this juggernauthereandhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在衡量业绩时，可以通过衡量LFCF占净利润或EBITDA的百分比来揭示收益的质量。我将亚马逊的LFCF/EBITDA与一些最成功的公司进行了比较，包括一个鲜为人知的名字，Intuitive Surgical，Inc(ISRG)，如果您不熟悉这家公司，我鼓励您在这里和这里探索这家巨头。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/663cb272a8fcfb13d7585052057e80d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha *Stocks with different fiscal years are as of the closest period*</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表由作者根据Seeking Alpha*不同财政年度的股票截至最近的时期*</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As shown, Amazon has come back to earth a bit from the pandemic heights, however still produces better LFCF/EBITDA consistently more than retail competitor Walmart (WMT), and also Microsoft (MSFT) and NVIDIA (NVDA), while lagging Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and Apple (AAPL) which generally spend much less on CAPEX. It is also clear why I am so bullish on Intuitive Surgical. For Amazon, it is apparent that the pandemic boost lost steam in Q2 2021, however, the results were still quite positive.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，亚马逊已经从大流行的高度恢复了一些，但亚马逊的LFCF/EBITDA仍然比零售竞争对手沃尔玛(WMT)、微软(MSFT)和英伟达(NVDA)更好，同时落后于Visa(V)、万事达卡(MA)和苹果(AAPL)的资本支出通常要少得多。我如此看好直觉外科的原因也很清楚。对于亚马逊来说，很明显，疫情的提振在2021年第二季度失去了动力，然而，结果仍然相当积极。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation & Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与机会</b></blockquote></p><p> While Amazon's quarter was impressive by most standards, it disappointed many who decided to take profits last week.</p><p><blockquote>尽管以大多数标准来看，亚马逊的季度业绩令人印象深刻，但它让许多上周决定获利了结的人感到失望。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4294120fff82efc817695d0fd339b97d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For long-term investors, this is not necessarily a negative. If one is still adding money to investment accounts or looking to take profits in other holdings and reallocate funds, the drawback represents an opportunity. I prefer to accumulate incrementally during a downturn rather than trying to call a bottom. How long it continues and how low the stock falls is unknown, however, I believe the downtrend will be short-lived. Another reason not to be rattled by the sell-off last week is that the stock has avoided the dreaded euphoria that likely would have caused the valuation to decouple from results leaving long-term investors in a poor place to add shares. The pullback will allow the fundamentals to catch up to the valuation a bit. Below I have compared Amazon's valuation to some of the outstanding companies above and also added digital rival Netflix (NFLX), Seeking Alpha fan-favorite Palantir (PLTR), and the ever-polarizing Tesla (TSLA) for additional context.</p><p><blockquote>对于长期投资者来说，这不一定是负面的。如果一个人仍在向投资账户添加资金，或者希望在其他持股中获利并重新分配资金，那么缺点就代表着一个机会。我更喜欢在经济低迷时期逐步积累，而不是试图看涨期权触底。持续多久以及股价跌到多低尚不得而知，不过，我相信下跌趋势将是短暂的。没有被上周的抛售惊慌失措的另一个原因是，该股避免了可怕的兴奋情绪，这种情绪可能会导致估值与业绩脱钩，使长期投资者难以增持股票。回调将使基本面稍微赶上估值。下面我将Amazon的估值与上述一些杰出公司进行了比较，并添加了数字竞争对手Netflix(NFLX)、Seeking Alpha粉丝最喜欢的Palantir(PLTR)和日益两极分化的特斯拉(TSLA)以获取更多背景信息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731887f1f1ce0523e160d6d84ab6926d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from Y-charts. FWD revenue growth from Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者用Y形图中的数据创建的图表。Seeking Alpha带来的FWD收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that forward revenue growth estimates (YOY) are listed for consideration.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，列出了前瞻性收入增长预测（同比）以供考虑。</blockquote></p><p> I have also seen concern expressed for the enterprise value to cash from operations (EV/CFO), however, this does not convince me that there is long-term trouble in this area, especially in light of the increase in LFCF.</p><p><blockquote>我也看到了对企业运营现金价值（EV/CFO）的担忧，但是，这并不能让我相信这一领域存在长期问题，特别是考虑到LFCF的增加。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aae66565cdd74d312dd57dc4427046f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the short interest can be a useful tool to determine when the stock has become overvalued. Amazon is again running less than 1% of the float short, which is an indication that the downswing may be short and shallow.</p><p><blockquote>最后，空头利息可以成为确定股票何时被高估的有用工具。亚马逊的流通量再次不足1%，这表明下跌可能是短暂而浅的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f017302a7066ca29108962726a968d48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The short interest is near historic lows, pandemic notwithstanding, and after a brief rise as shares touched $3,700 is again falling. The short interest at this level tells me that while some grumble about the Company's value, few are willing to put their money where their mouth is at this point. I have included the short interest of other stocks discussed below for comparison.</p><p><blockquote>尽管发生了大流行，空头兴趣仍接近历史低点，并且在股价触及3,700美元后短暂上涨后再次下跌。这个水平的空头兴趣告诉我，虽然有些人抱怨公司的价值，但很少有人愿意在这一点上把钱花在他们的嘴上。我已经包括了下面讨论的其他股票的空头利息以进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bad5c8a348a24ddbc7043e6299aa254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart created by author with data from TD Ameritrade.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者用TD Ameritrade的数据创建的图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>CEO Transition & Obstacles Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首席执行官过渡和未来的障碍</b></blockquote></p><p> Jeff Bezos is an extremely savvy executive and likely could see that, post-pandemic, the heavy lifting would begin in earnest. He chose to enjoy his billions and take a rocket into space while on top. I certainly don't blame him. Meanwhile, new CEO Andy Jassy assumes command after 24 years with the Company. While some may see Bezos stepping down as a negative, it can also allow an opportunity for the new CEO with a fresh voice and something to prove. Apple has thrived after the transition from Steve Jobs to Tim Cook and hopefully, this will also be the case at Amazon. His job won't be easy as congress seeks increased regulations on large tech and the labor force presents challenges on multiple fronts. Jassy is largely credited for growing the highly profitable AWS arm of the Company which shows from where management believes much of the future growth is likely to come.</p><p><blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯是一位非常精明的高管，他可能会看到，在大流行之后，繁重的工作将正式开始。他选择享受他的数十亿美元，并在顶端乘坐火箭进入太空。我当然不怪他。与此同时，新任首席执行官安迪·贾西(Andy Jassy)在公司工作了24年后上任。虽然有些人可能认为贝佐斯的辞职是一个负面消息，但这也可以为新任首席执行官提供一个拥有新鲜声音和证明的机会。苹果在从史蒂夫·乔布斯到蒂姆·库克的转变之后蓬勃发展，希望亚马逊也能如此。他的工作并不容易，因为国会寻求加强对大型科技公司的监管，而劳动力在多个方面面临挑战。Jassy在很大程度上因发展了该公司高利润的AWS部门而受到赞誉，这表明管理层认为未来的大部分增长可能来自哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Uncertainties</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险及不明朗因素</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As mentioned above, congressional leaders from both parties have expressed concerns with the power of large tech companies and pledged to reign them in. This could negatively affect results and there is the possibility that some large tech companies would be forced to spin-off segments. Spin-offs would not necessarily be detrimental to current shareholders, however, the market despises uncertainty and this could cause the share price to further retreat. On the other hand, congress is full of tough talk and weak action so I am skeptical.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，两党的国会领导人都对大型科技公司的力量表示担忧，并承诺控制它们。这可能会对业绩产生负面影响，一些大型科技公司可能会被迫分拆细分市场。分拆不一定对现有股东不利，但市场鄙视不确定性，这可能会导致股价进一步回落。另一方面，国会充满了强硬的言论和软弱的行动，所以我持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> Also mentioned above are the labor issues. The workforce becoming unionized could affect profit margins. More generally, the entire labor market is tight at the moment causing shortages of workers and rising wages. Rising wages across the economy will also serve to increase the spending power of consumers which has potential benefits for a company like Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>上面还提到了劳工问题。劳动力加入工会可能会影响利润率。更一般地说，目前整个劳动力市场紧张，导致工人短缺和工资上涨。整个经济中工资的上涨也将有助于提高消费者的消费能力，这对亚马逊这样的公司来说有潜在的好处。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasnot impressedby Q2 2021 earnings and the stock took a substantial hit. This downtrend may continue while investors exercise caution post-Bezos and post-retail reopening, which is why I recommend incremental buying.</p><p><blockquote>市场对2021年第二季度的盈利并不满意，该股遭受了重大打击。这种下跌趋势可能会持续下去，而投资者在贝佐斯和零售重新开放后保持谨慎，这就是为什么我建议增量买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> When I see a headline on Seeking Alpha that \"Department store stocks rally, while online retailers sell off\", I see an opportunity. This development is remarkably short-sighted and unlikely to last.</p><p><blockquote>当我在Seeking Alpha上看到“百货公司股票上涨，而在线零售商抛售”的标题时，我看到了一个机会。这种发展非常短视，不太可能持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's Q2 2021 results have caused many investors to take profits and some to claim that the Company's stellar run is over. The numbers, while tempered from the pandemic highs, are still impressive and a growth runway remains in the Company's most profitable segments. The new CEO will face the coming challenges with heaps of LFCF and the stock's valuation has become more favorable to long-term investors. This is not the first time the stock has pulled back from a seemingly weak quarter and in every instance, the correct move for long-term investors is crystal clear.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊2021年第二季度的业绩导致许多投资者获利了结，一些投资者声称该公司的辉煌业绩已经结束。这些数字虽然较大流行的高点有所缓和，但仍然令人印象深刻，该公司最赚钱的部门仍有增长跑道。新任首席执行官将面临大量LFCF的挑战，而且该股的估值对长期投资者来说变得更加有利。这并不是该股第一次从看似疲软的季度中回调，在每种情况下，长期投资者的正确举动都是非常明确的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443869-amazons-disappointing-quarterly-results-are-a-gift\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443869-amazons-disappointing-quarterly-results-are-a-gift","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159609817","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite what some have characterized as a disappointing quarter, Amazon remains one of the highest quality stocks in the market with a long runway still ahead.\nAfter previous pandemic-fueled results and this year's reopening excitement, the results were bound to retreat at the margin leaving the new CEO with some upcoming heavy lifting.\nDespair not! This is an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate shares incrementally as the stock retreats.\n\nSpencer Platt/Getty Images News\nInvestment Thesis:\nAmazon (AMZN) (also, \"the Company\" hereafter) reported results that disappointed some who may not have anticipated a retreat from the pandemic-fueled growth rates seen previously. As an investor who is still accumulating chips, I see this as more opportunity than setback and see the stock's retreat as missing the forest for the trees - a market hallmark. The metrics are stronger than many reports indicate and this pullback also acts to keep the stock from going euphoric and decoupling from underlying metrics. Accumulating incrementally during the likely brief downtrend may be the best course of action.\nBy The Numbers\nQ2 2021 top-line revenue came in at $113B compared to Q1 2021 $108.5B, a 4% quarterly increase. Revenue was up 27% compared to Q2 2020. EBITDA for Q2 2021 was up a whopping 36% over the same period in 2020, however was down 14% from Q1 2021. However, due to the cyclical nature of retail, I prefer to analyze the data using the trailing twelve months (TTMs) by quarter.\nChart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha.\nOver the TTMs Amazon generated $443B in revenues and an impressive $59B in EBITDA. While growth certainly slowed from Q1 2021 savvy investors understand that data does not exist in a vacuum and must be put in proper context. Covid created immense growth that was known to be inorganic as many who would typically frequent brick-and-mortar stores shopped from home. Many of these folks will continue to frequent Amazon, while some will return to previous habits. Still, others likely returned to retail upon lifting of restrictions just to leave the house and feel normal and will utilize online retail more once the novelty wears off. The same logic applies to Amazon's digital offerings. For these reasons, Q2 2021 growth was destined to slow from the breakneck pace of the prior periods, however, the Company still managed to grow revenue nearly 6% over the prior TTMs and, as stated above, 4% over Q1 2021 - no small feat. The Delta variant and likely return to restrictions and caution from shoppers will again change the game for the final 2 months of Q3 and likely for Q4 2021. Frankly, and amazingly, I believe we are about to be caught flat-footed against this variant which will be bad for many, but possibly positive for Amazon's sales in Q3 and Q4 2021.\nThe data on a per share basis tells much the same story as above.\nChart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha.\nRevenue growth per share is solid while EBITDA and cash from operations per share have stalled. Many have expressed concern with the decrease in cash flow from operations, however, I prefer to use levered free cash flow (LFCF) as I believe it is a better metric to determine true cash available to shareholders. Cash flow from operations (CFO) is impacted by temporary changes in accounts receivable and accounts payable (changes in working capital), and does not account for capital expenditures (CAPEX) or debt payments. LFCF is a better measure of the cash available once all obligations have been met.\nChart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha\nThe Company's LFCF is down from the Covid holiday boom, but still rose significantly from 2019 results and was still up on a quarterly basis.\nFurther, when measuring results, the quality of the earnings can be brought to light by measuring LFCF as a percentage of either net income or EBITDA. I compared Amazon's LFCF/EBITDA to some of the most successful companies, including a lesser-known name, Intuitive Surgical, Inc (ISRG) that, if you are unfamiliar with this company, I encourage you to explore this juggernauthereandhere.\nChart created by author with data from Seeking Alpha *Stocks with different fiscal years are as of the closest period*\nAs shown, Amazon has come back to earth a bit from the pandemic heights, however still produces better LFCF/EBITDA consistently more than retail competitor Walmart (WMT), and also Microsoft (MSFT) and NVIDIA (NVDA), while lagging Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and Apple (AAPL) which generally spend much less on CAPEX. It is also clear why I am so bullish on Intuitive Surgical. For Amazon, it is apparent that the pandemic boost lost steam in Q2 2021, however, the results were still quite positive.\nValuation & Opportunity\nWhile Amazon's quarter was impressive by most standards, it disappointed many who decided to take profits last week.\nData by YCharts\nFor long-term investors, this is not necessarily a negative. If one is still adding money to investment accounts or looking to take profits in other holdings and reallocate funds, the drawback represents an opportunity. I prefer to accumulate incrementally during a downturn rather than trying to call a bottom. How long it continues and how low the stock falls is unknown, however, I believe the downtrend will be short-lived. Another reason not to be rattled by the sell-off last week is that the stock has avoided the dreaded euphoria that likely would have caused the valuation to decouple from results leaving long-term investors in a poor place to add shares. The pullback will allow the fundamentals to catch up to the valuation a bit. Below I have compared Amazon's valuation to some of the outstanding companies above and also added digital rival Netflix (NFLX), Seeking Alpha fan-favorite Palantir (PLTR), and the ever-polarizing Tesla (TSLA) for additional context.\nChart created by author with data from Y-charts. FWD revenue growth from Seeking Alpha.\nNote that forward revenue growth estimates (YOY) are listed for consideration.\nI have also seen concern expressed for the enterprise value to cash from operations (EV/CFO), however, this does not convince me that there is long-term trouble in this area, especially in light of the increase in LFCF.\nData by YCharts\nFinally, the short interest can be a useful tool to determine when the stock has become overvalued. Amazon is again running less than 1% of the float short, which is an indication that the downswing may be short and shallow.\nData by YCharts\nThe short interest is near historic lows, pandemic notwithstanding, and after a brief rise as shares touched $3,700 is again falling. The short interest at this level tells me that while some grumble about the Company's value, few are willing to put their money where their mouth is at this point. I have included the short interest of other stocks discussed below for comparison.\nChart created by author with data from TD Ameritrade.\nCEO Transition & Obstacles Ahead\nJeff Bezos is an extremely savvy executive and likely could see that, post-pandemic, the heavy lifting would begin in earnest. He chose to enjoy his billions and take a rocket into space while on top. I certainly don't blame him. Meanwhile, new CEO Andy Jassy assumes command after 24 years with the Company. While some may see Bezos stepping down as a negative, it can also allow an opportunity for the new CEO with a fresh voice and something to prove. Apple has thrived after the transition from Steve Jobs to Tim Cook and hopefully, this will also be the case at Amazon. His job won't be easy as congress seeks increased regulations on large tech and the labor force presents challenges on multiple fronts. Jassy is largely credited for growing the highly profitable AWS arm of the Company which shows from where management believes much of the future growth is likely to come.\nRisks and Uncertainties\nAs mentioned above, congressional leaders from both parties have expressed concerns with the power of large tech companies and pledged to reign them in. This could negatively affect results and there is the possibility that some large tech companies would be forced to spin-off segments. Spin-offs would not necessarily be detrimental to current shareholders, however, the market despises uncertainty and this could cause the share price to further retreat. On the other hand, congress is full of tough talk and weak action so I am skeptical.\nAlso mentioned above are the labor issues. The workforce becoming unionized could affect profit margins. More generally, the entire labor market is tight at the moment causing shortages of workers and rising wages. Rising wages across the economy will also serve to increase the spending power of consumers which has potential benefits for a company like Amazon.\nThe market wasnot impressedby Q2 2021 earnings and the stock took a substantial hit. This downtrend may continue while investors exercise caution post-Bezos and post-retail reopening, which is why I recommend incremental buying.\nConclusion\nWhen I see a headline on Seeking Alpha that \"Department store stocks rally, while online retailers sell off\", I see an opportunity. This development is remarkably short-sighted and unlikely to last.\nAmazon's Q2 2021 results have caused many investors to take profits and some to claim that the Company's stellar run is over. The numbers, while tempered from the pandemic highs, are still impressive and a growth runway remains in the Company's most profitable segments. The new CEO will face the coming challenges with heaps of LFCF and the stock's valuation has become more favorable to long-term investors. This is not the first time the stock has pulled back from a seemingly weak quarter and in every instance, the correct move for long-term investors is crystal clear.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/805191146"}
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