yup, totally agree with the ar_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-08-02

yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper

Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":805800938,"tweetId":"805800938","gmtCreate":1627867905624,"gmtModify":1631889238111,"author":{"id":3556014229499035,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorId":3556014229499035,"authorIdStr":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":14,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805800938","repostId":1130492644,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130492644","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627867792,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130492644?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130492644","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.</li> <li>Apple’s current high growth is temporary.</li> <li>Apple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e45c69c559fb64f9cda12fb93f34c0d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment<blockquote><ul><li>股息收益率理论是健康公司股票被高估和被低估的一个很好的指标。</li><li>苹果目前的高增长是暂时的。</li><li>苹果正在成为股息贵族。</li></ul>克里斯托弗·朱/盖蒂图片社娱乐</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Investors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.<blockquote>投资者对待苹果 (AAPL)，就好像它已经找到了第二次增长高峰。事实上，苹果现在是一头成熟的摇钱树，而不是一头崭露头角的小牛。疫情让许多公司比他们希望的更快地过渡到互联网。这对苹果来说是好事，但由于它在大流行之前就已经是一家成熟的企业，因此它将恢复到大流行前的正常增长率。</blockquote> Apple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.<blockquote>苹果 2016 年至 2020 年的 5 年平均股息率为 1.46%，目前苹果的股息率为 0.68%。苹果已经支付股息近 10 年了，平均收益率约为 1.4%。为了让苹果提供这样的收益率，股价必须下跌至 75-85 美元的范围。现在是时候在你的苹果利润恢复到平均水平之前拿走它了。</blockquote> Why Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory<blockquote>为什么苹果被高估，股息收益率理论</blockquote> Dividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.<blockquote>投资质量趋势创始人杰拉尔丁-韦斯（Geraldine Weiss）通过一本名为《股息不要说谎》的书推广了股息收益率理论。股息收益率理论的本质是，优质公司往往具有 “正常 ”的收益率，随着市场对公司的喜爱或失去喜爱，股息收益率会波动，从而创造买卖机会。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a469d363e933b84759428285f957590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alphadividend yield<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法股息收益率</blockquote> Here we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.<blockquote>以下是苹果的股息收益率历史。从平均收益率一栏可以看出，苹果目前的平均收益率是苹果首次开始派息以来的最低水平。这表明苹果是一个尖叫卖家。另一方面，苹果上一次平均收益率超过 2% 是在 2016 年。当时，苹果是一个尖叫的买家。巧合的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）开始购买苹果股票的同一年。</blockquote> The reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.<blockquote>之所以有效，是因为股息收益率是股价的乘积。从上图可以看出，从2016年到2018年，股息收益率有所下降，这表明苹果的股价有所上涨。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991e5d3137bf5ac3c9bc4aaf26c01581\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018<blockquote>资料来源：雅虎财经，2016年1月1日至2018年12月31日苹果股价</blockquote> That is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.<blockquote>事情正是如此。在 2018 年的巅峰时期，苹果的股息收益率为 1.28%。此时，苹果的 5 年期平均收益率为 1.86%。2018 年底，苹果的股息率为 1.97%。正如你现在所看到的，公司的股息收益率可以很好地代表公司的价值。</blockquote> This Time Is not different<blockquote>这次也不例外</blockquote> I know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.<blockquote>我知道你们中的一些人在想，嗯，股息收益率理论很好，但多亏了新冠疫情，这次情况有所不同。我不认为这次对苹果来说会有什么不同，原因是苹果在大流行病之前就已经成熟了。</blockquote> It is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.<blockquote>苹果和许多其他科技公司确实从疫情中受益，但苹果与Shopify、Zoom和Disney Plus有着显著的不同。也就是说，苹果已经在很大程度上渗透了其整个潜在市场。在疫情之前，我们大多数人从未听说过Zoom。我们开始在家工作，需要一个远程通信的解决方案，bam Zoom利用了这一点。在疫情之前，iPhone仍然是被击败的智能手机，拥有数千万用户的智能手机，是远在中国的必备身份象征。2012年我在中国留学了一个学期。在那段时间里，我的教授告诉我们身份象征对中国人有多重要。所有年龄段的学生在父母给他们买 iPhone 之前都不会去上学，因为没有 iPhone，他们就会丢 “面子”。许多人买不起手机套餐，我和我的朋友们目睹了许多人拥有一部iPhone只是为了炫耀。那是在 2012 年，也就是疫情爆发前 8 年。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae87be3f096ac0a13d2e38634b8c34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*<blockquote>资料来源：苹果 2021 年第三季度*涵盖 2021 年 4 月至 6 月*</blockquote> As we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home &amp; Accessories.<blockquote>正如我们所看到的，苹果的大部分收入来自产品。进一步下降的产品被确定为iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、家居和配件。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef98109e802b72a60990d870e23814d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Again the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.<blockquote>iPhone再次占据了大多数。iPhone销量的高增长率也佐证了这样一种理论，即这一轮增长是由于似乎每3年发生一次的苹果超级周期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71f026725256789694ea1ff46574c4a\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha Financials，作者整理</blockquote> The pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.<blockquote>过去10年的模式是1年的强劲增长，随后是2年的缓慢增长。正如您所看到的，这导致 10 年复合年增长率约为 10% - 13%，具体取决于我们在周期中的位置。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62395de39d598a2d5fb553eca56086d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple2017 10-K<blockquote>资料来源：Apple2017 10-K</blockquote> Here we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.<blockquote>在这里，我们看到了2015年的超级周期，随后是2016年和2017年的增长下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e63c1a8fd16ae504ee3794c0eff4198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple2020 10-K<blockquote>资料来源：Apple2020 10-K</blockquote> Again it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.<blockquote>这种情况再次发生在最近的2018年超级周期中，随后是2019年和2020年的增长下降。</blockquote> When we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.<blockquote>当我们查看这些时期按产品划分的收入时，我们可以看到iPhone销量下降，而其他类别无法弥补明年的收入损失。在接下来的一年，即 2017 年和 2020 年，其他收入来源的增长足以推动苹果总收入的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3954b0d588d038dc2dd5e88c39c5ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Patterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.<blockquote>模式可能会重复，直到发生一些事情改变它们。我看不到这样的催化剂，目前 iPhone 的销售再次将苹果的收入推向了创纪录的水平。iPhone的销售似乎卖得很好，因为即将向5G过渡，许多iPhone用户的设备至少有3年的历史。</blockquote> The iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.<blockquote>iPhone 12于2020年10月亮相并发布。这意味着超级周期预计将随着预计在9月或10月发布的iPhone 13而结束。我相信这表明 2022 财年对于苹果股东来说将是艰难的一年。</blockquote> Apple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow<blockquote>苹果的第三幕也是最后一幕--摇钱树</blockquote> Investors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.<blockquote>投资者需要关注苹果作为股息贵族的未来。苹果正在向更多基于服务的收入转型。这是一项利润率较高的业务，但爆炸性创新较少，这意味着增长将会下降。</blockquote> At the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.<blockquote>按照目前的股价，投资者根据一些乐观的假设 “锁定 ”未来 10 年 9% 的目标回报率。</blockquote> <ul> <li>Growth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.</li> <li>An expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%</li> <li>Apple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.</li> </ul> All of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.<blockquote><ul><li>前5年增长19.3%，后5年增长12%。</li><li>预期股息增长率为17.5%</li><li>苹果恢复到21的历史市盈率。</li></ul>所有这些加在一起意味着苹果 10 年后的股价将为 293.47 美元，股息将为每股 4.43 美元，现有股东的收益率为 1.5%，更接近他们目前的 5 年平均收益率。</blockquote> Apple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.<blockquote>苹果目前的股息支付率为 15.86%。德州仪器（TXN）和 Intuit（INTU）等 IT 行业的其他公司的派息率分别为 51% 和 25%，这表明苹果未来几年的股息将更高。预计 2031 年每股收益为 14 美元，51% 的派息意味着股息为 7 美元/sh。</blockquote> Risk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase<blockquote>风险与机遇，股息增加</blockquote> Based on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.<blockquote>根据5年平均股息收益率和当前股息增长率，股息很可能会增加至1.03-1.14美元。为了让苹果在预计的未来股息下保持其历史收益率，苹果股价必须在 80 美元左右交易价格。苹果有可能支付并将股息提高到 1.89 美元。苹果在 2020 年的股息上花费了 140 亿美元，将股息提高到 1.89 美元将使股价增至 310 亿美元。这将把他们的派息率提高到34%，这是摇钱树公司的典型派息率。</blockquote> The expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.<blockquote>我预测的预期股息是基于股息占用的经营现金流百分比。在过去的3年里，这一比例从15%到18%不等。我使用了大约 1001.5 亿美元的运营现金流，按 19% 计算，您可以获得 1.14 美元的股息。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153079186d84770e064411e34a42745e\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法现金流量表</blockquote> Lastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.<blockquote>最后，股息收益率低于1%可能成为苹果的常态。如果目前 2021 年 0.63% 的平均收益率成为新常态，那么根据我预测的股息增长，苹果的股价应升至 163.49 美元至 180.95 美元。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Sell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.<blockquote>卖掉苹果，现在就拿你的利润。超级周期将会结束。稍后回来，在股息收益率较高时以折扣价购买苹果。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-08-02 09:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.</li> <li>Apple’s current high growth is temporary.</li> <li>Apple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e45c69c559fb64f9cda12fb93f34c0d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment<blockquote><ul><li>股息收益率理论是健康公司股票被高估和被低估的一个很好的指标。</li><li>苹果目前的高增长是暂时的。</li><li>苹果正在成为股息贵族。</li></ul>克里斯托弗·朱/盖蒂图片社娱乐</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Investors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.<blockquote>投资者对待苹果 (AAPL)，就好像它已经找到了第二次增长高峰。事实上，苹果现在是一头成熟的摇钱树，而不是一头崭露头角的小牛。疫情让许多公司比他们希望的更快地过渡到互联网。这对苹果来说是好事，但由于它在大流行之前就已经是一家成熟的企业，因此它将恢复到大流行前的正常增长率。</blockquote> Apple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.<blockquote>苹果 2016 年至 2020 年的 5 年平均股息率为 1.46%，目前苹果的股息率为 0.68%。苹果已经支付股息近 10 年了，平均收益率约为 1.4%。为了让苹果提供这样的收益率，股价必须下跌至 75-85 美元的范围。现在是时候在你的苹果利润恢复到平均水平之前拿走它了。</blockquote> Why Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory<blockquote>为什么苹果被高估，股息收益率理论</blockquote> Dividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.<blockquote>投资质量趋势创始人杰拉尔丁-韦斯（Geraldine Weiss）通过一本名为《股息不要说谎》的书推广了股息收益率理论。股息收益率理论的本质是，优质公司往往具有 “正常 ”的收益率，随着市场对公司的喜爱或失去喜爱，股息收益率会波动，从而创造买卖机会。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a469d363e933b84759428285f957590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alphadividend yield<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法股息收益率</blockquote> Here we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.<blockquote>以下是苹果的股息收益率历史。从平均收益率一栏可以看出，苹果目前的平均收益率是苹果首次开始派息以来的最低水平。这表明苹果是一个尖叫卖家。另一方面，苹果上一次平均收益率超过 2% 是在 2016 年。当时，苹果是一个尖叫的买家。巧合的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）开始购买苹果股票的同一年。</blockquote> The reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.<blockquote>之所以有效，是因为股息收益率是股价的乘积。从上图可以看出，从2016年到2018年，股息收益率有所下降，这表明苹果的股价有所上涨。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991e5d3137bf5ac3c9bc4aaf26c01581\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018<blockquote>资料来源：雅虎财经，2016年1月1日至2018年12月31日苹果股价</blockquote> That is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.<blockquote>事情正是如此。在 2018 年的巅峰时期，苹果的股息收益率为 1.28%。此时，苹果的 5 年期平均收益率为 1.86%。2018 年底，苹果的股息率为 1.97%。正如你现在所看到的，公司的股息收益率可以很好地代表公司的价值。</blockquote> This Time Is not different<blockquote>这次也不例外</blockquote> I know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.<blockquote>我知道你们中的一些人在想，嗯，股息收益率理论很好，但多亏了新冠疫情，这次情况有所不同。我不认为这次对苹果来说会有什么不同，原因是苹果在大流行病之前就已经成熟了。</blockquote> It is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.<blockquote>苹果和许多其他科技公司确实从疫情中受益，但苹果与Shopify、Zoom和Disney Plus有着显著的不同。也就是说，苹果已经在很大程度上渗透了其整个潜在市场。在疫情之前，我们大多数人从未听说过Zoom。我们开始在家工作，需要一个远程通信的解决方案，bam Zoom利用了这一点。在疫情之前，iPhone仍然是被击败的智能手机，拥有数千万用户的智能手机，是远在中国的必备身份象征。2012年我在中国留学了一个学期。在那段时间里，我的教授告诉我们身份象征对中国人有多重要。所有年龄段的学生在父母给他们买 iPhone 之前都不会去上学，因为没有 iPhone，他们就会丢 “面子”。许多人买不起手机套餐，我和我的朋友们目睹了许多人拥有一部iPhone只是为了炫耀。那是在 2012 年，也就是疫情爆发前 8 年。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae87be3f096ac0a13d2e38634b8c34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*<blockquote>资料来源：苹果 2021 年第三季度*涵盖 2021 年 4 月至 6 月*</blockquote> As we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home &amp; Accessories.<blockquote>正如我们所看到的，苹果的大部分收入来自产品。进一步下降的产品被确定为iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、家居和配件。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef98109e802b72a60990d870e23814d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Again the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.<blockquote>iPhone再次占据了大多数。iPhone销量的高增长率也佐证了这样一种理论，即这一轮增长是由于似乎每3年发生一次的苹果超级周期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71f026725256789694ea1ff46574c4a\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha Financials，作者整理</blockquote> The pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.<blockquote>过去10年的模式是1年的强劲增长，随后是2年的缓慢增长。正如您所看到的，这导致 10 年复合年增长率约为 10% - 13%，具体取决于我们在周期中的位置。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62395de39d598a2d5fb553eca56086d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple2017 10-K<blockquote>资料来源：Apple2017 10-K</blockquote> Here we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.<blockquote>在这里，我们看到了2015年的超级周期，随后是2016年和2017年的增长下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e63c1a8fd16ae504ee3794c0eff4198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple2020 10-K<blockquote>资料来源：Apple2020 10-K</blockquote> Again it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.<blockquote>这种情况再次发生在最近的2018年超级周期中，随后是2019年和2020年的增长下降。</blockquote> When we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.<blockquote>当我们查看这些时期按产品划分的收入时，我们可以看到iPhone销量下降，而其他类别无法弥补明年的收入损失。在接下来的一年，即 2017 年和 2020 年，其他收入来源的增长足以推动苹果总收入的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3954b0d588d038dc2dd5e88c39c5ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Patterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.<blockquote>模式可能会重复，直到发生一些事情改变它们。我看不到这样的催化剂，目前 iPhone 的销售再次将苹果的收入推向了创纪录的水平。iPhone的销售似乎卖得很好，因为即将向5G过渡，许多iPhone用户的设备至少有3年的历史。</blockquote> The iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.<blockquote>iPhone 12于2020年10月亮相并发布。这意味着超级周期预计将随着预计在9月或10月发布的iPhone 13而结束。我相信这表明 2022 财年对于苹果股东来说将是艰难的一年。</blockquote> Apple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow<blockquote>苹果的第三幕也是最后一幕--摇钱树</blockquote> Investors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.<blockquote>投资者需要关注苹果作为股息贵族的未来。苹果正在向更多基于服务的收入转型。这是一项利润率较高的业务，但爆炸性创新较少，这意味着增长将会下降。</blockquote> At the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.<blockquote>按照目前的股价，投资者根据一些乐观的假设 “锁定 ”未来 10 年 9% 的目标回报率。</blockquote> <ul> <li>Growth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.</li> <li>An expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%</li> <li>Apple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.</li> </ul> All of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.<blockquote><ul><li>前5年增长19.3%，后5年增长12%。</li><li>预期股息增长率为17.5%</li><li>苹果恢复到21的历史市盈率。</li></ul>所有这些加在一起意味着苹果 10 年后的股价将为 293.47 美元，股息将为每股 4.43 美元，现有股东的收益率为 1.5%，更接近他们目前的 5 年平均收益率。</blockquote> Apple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.<blockquote>苹果目前的股息支付率为 15.86%。德州仪器（TXN）和 Intuit（INTU）等 IT 行业的其他公司的派息率分别为 51% 和 25%，这表明苹果未来几年的股息将更高。预计 2031 年每股收益为 14 美元，51% 的派息意味着股息为 7 美元/sh。</blockquote> Risk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase<blockquote>风险与机遇，股息增加</blockquote> Based on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.<blockquote>根据5年平均股息收益率和当前股息增长率，股息很可能会增加至1.03-1.14美元。为了让苹果在预计的未来股息下保持其历史收益率，苹果股价必须在 80 美元左右交易价格。苹果有可能支付并将股息提高到 1.89 美元。苹果在 2020 年的股息上花费了 140 亿美元，将股息提高到 1.89 美元将使股价增至 310 亿美元。这将把他们的派息率提高到34%，这是摇钱树公司的典型派息率。</blockquote> The expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.<blockquote>我预测的预期股息是基于股息占用的经营现金流百分比。在过去的3年里，这一比例从15%到18%不等。我使用了大约 1001.5 亿美元的运营现金流，按 19% 计算，您可以获得 1.14 美元的股息。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153079186d84770e064411e34a42745e\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法现金流量表</blockquote> Lastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.<blockquote>最后，股息收益率低于1%可能成为苹果的常态。如果目前 2021 年 0.63% 的平均收益率成为新常态，那么根据我预测的股息增长，苹果的股价应升至 163.49 美元至 180.95 美元。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Sell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.<blockquote>卖掉苹果，现在就拿你的利润。超级周期将会结束。稍后回来，在股息收益率较高时以折扣价购买苹果。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130492644","content_text":"Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.\nApple’s current high growth is temporary.\nApple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.\n\nChristopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment\nInvestment Thesis\nInvestors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.\nApple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.\nWhy Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory\nDividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.\nSource: Seeking Alphadividend yield\nHere we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.\nThe reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.\nSource: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018\nThat is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.\nThis Time Is not different\nI know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.\nIt is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.\nSource: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*\nAs we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home & Accessories.\n\nAgain the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author\nThe pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.\nSource: Apple2017 10-K\nHere we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.\nSource: Apple2020 10-K\nAgain it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.\nWhen we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.\n\nPatterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.\nThe iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.\nApple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow\nInvestors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.\nAt the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.\n\nGrowth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.\nAn expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%\nApple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.\n\nAll of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.\nApple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.\nRisk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase\nBased on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.\nThe expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.\nSource: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement\nLastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.\nConclusion\nSell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2975,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":77,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/805800938"}