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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":815091217,"tweetId":"815091217","gmtCreate":1630628504639,"gmtModify":1632469723229,"author":{"id":3581888768537623,"idStr":"3581888768537623","authorId":3581888768537623,"authorIdStr":"3581888768537623","name":"AhGong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c939d5ea654b2b9a3fb6ee4f5e99b4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":15,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>ok</body></html>","text":"ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815091217","repostId":1191815337,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191815337","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630627840,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191815337?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 08:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September<blockquote>期权“尾巴”将继续摇股市的“狗”...直到九月中旬</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191815337","media":"zerohedge","summary":"From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting","content":"From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...<blockquote>从“伽马锤子”到“伽马松开”，今年以来，泵、转储和BTFD的周期一直有增无减，自5月份以来，围绕期权到期的模式变得越来越明显……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7076de5ca2ad0449cc411eb7af1aaf37\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes thatthe (options market) “tail” continues to wag the (cash equities market) “dog,” crunched by “yield enhancement” / “income generating” overwriting flows(that even The FT is starting to pay attention to).<blockquote>野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出（期权市场）“尾巴”继续摇着（现金股票市场）“狗”，受到“收益率增强”/“创收”覆盖流的挤压（就连英国《金融时报》也开始关注这一点）。</blockquote> The surge into these 'overwriting' funds...<blockquote>这些“覆盖”基金的激增...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca90f6652e83b4d50274c525d9d8e0f0\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> ...has stuffed dealers to the gills with gamma and delta exposures at extreme levels...<blockquote>...让毒贩们吃了大量的伽马和德尔塔暴露....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6477f30c8b5147bbb69d941e6aeebfe3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For some context on what this means, the Nomura strategist explains:<blockquote>对于这意味着什么的一些背景，野村证券策略师解释道：</blockquote> The cumulative flows from the “Gamma Hammer” strangle-seller alone (2 clips a day, ~3x’s a week in approximately 2-3 week expiration 20d strangles) has Dealers long ~$3B in Gamma (and at a cost of nearly ~5.0mm / day in decay) - which means that for a generic 100bps selloff, desks would in theory be in the mkt buying ~$2.5B of futures - which in-turn prevents any nascent selloff from developing thanks to said “insulation” Which is obvious when we see there hasn't been a 3bps drawdown since May...<blockquote>仅来自“Gamma Hammer”扼杀卖家的累积流量（每天2个剪辑，每周约3次，大约2-3周到期20d扼杀）就让经销商在Gamma中做多约30亿美元（并且成本接近约5.0毫米/天衰减）-这意味着，对于一般的100个基点的抛售，理论上，柜台将在市场上购买约2.5 B美元的期货——这反过来又由于所说的“绝缘”而防止了任何新生的抛售的发展当我们看到自5月份以来没有出现3个基点的下降时，这一点是显而易见的...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b7bf4799004c692996b8cba846acf4\" tg-width=\"1256\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But, McElligott'sfocus is on the mid-September period as the point where US Equities may locally “peak”:<blockquote>但是McElligott的重点关注9月中旬，美股可能局部“见顶”：</blockquote> ...as the now well-publicized Op-Ex cycle “volatility expansion” phenomenon&nbsp; (VIX 15th, index / ETFs 17th&nbsp;and set-up for another large “Gamma unclench” occurring while then too losing aforementioned Vanna- and Charm- supports into this large serial / qtrly expiration)&nbsp; coinciding with the “buyback blackout”kicking-off for US Financials in that 3rd&nbsp;week of September… and all ahead of the FOMC on the 22nd Specifically, McElligott notes thatThe Fed timing here is particularly meaningful- not because the potential for an “official” announcement of “tapering” is some massive deal to markets (I believe we are well past that now) - but more because the potential for movement in the Committee’s economic projections and thus, the “dots,” which could cause some Rates upheaval after being firmly parked within their own range-trade hellscape for the past two months themselves (UST 10Y yields ~1.10-1.40).<blockquote>...作为现在广为人知的Op-Ex周期“波动扩张”现象（VIX第15位，指数/ETF第17位以及又一次大型“伽马解锁”同时也失去了前面提到的Vanna和Charm支持进入这个大的连续/季度到期） 恰逢“回购大停电”美国金融股将于九月第三周拉开帷幕……和都在22日FOMC之前具体来说，McElligott指出美联储在这里的时机特别有意义-不是因为“官方”宣布“缩减规模”的可能性对市场来说是一件大事（我相信我们现在已经远远超过了这一点）-而是因为委员会的经济预测以及“圆点”可能会发生变动，这可能会在过去两个月牢牢地停留在自己的区间内后引起一些利率剧变——交易地狱般的景象（UST 10年期收益率约为1.10-1.40）。</blockquote> And because of the potential for US Rates volatility around / after the 22nd Fed meeting as the market resets expectations on both the future path of hikes (off the new economic projections) and tapering,I think this “event risk” could then decrease the supply of “short vol” which has been conditioned to step-in the moment that volatility typically expands(i.e. around the Op-Ex cycle, which has finally gone “mainstream” and seemingly now trades like it too….see this past weekend’s write-up from Bloomberg “Options Turn Upheavals Into a Mid-Month Sure Thing for S&amp;P 500”).<blockquote>而且由于随着市场重新设定对未来加息路径（脱离新的经济预测）和缩减购债规模的预期，美国利率在第22次美联储会议前后可能会出现波动，我认为这种“事件风险”可能会减少“空头vol”的供应，空头vol已经习惯于在波动性通常扩大的时刻介入（即围绕Op-Ex周期，它最终成为“主流”，现在似乎也像它一样交易…参见上周末彭博的文章“期权将剧变变成标普500月中的必然事件”）。</blockquote> This could mean a longer period without the support that comes from said “short vol” flows reflexively swooping-in to save the day, which over the past decade + have acted to reset nascent spikes in volatility and stop the bleeding—IF this time we were to see those flows on hold due to the FOMC event risk a week later, their potential absence could allow for the “delta one” flow to hold more sway than usual of late (all that EPIC $Delta from index / ETF options as a source of de-risking flow, as well as Vol Control strategy de-allocation supply into an rVol move higher off of such an absolutely low base).<blockquote>这可能意味着在更长的一段时间内，没有来自所述“空头波动”流的支持，这些“空头波动”流反射性地猛扑来挽救局面，在过去十多年中，这些流已经起到了重置波动性峰值并止血的作用-如果这一次我们在一周后看到这些流量因FOMC事件风险而被搁置，它们的潜在缺席可能会让“delta one”流量最近比平时拥有更大的影响力（所有史诗般的$Delta来自指数/ETF期权作为去风险流量的来源，以及Vol控制策略将供应去分配到rVol中，使其从如此绝对低的基数上走高）。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September<blockquote>期权“尾巴”将继续摇股市的“狗”...直到九月中旬</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September<blockquote>期权“尾巴”将继续摇股市的“狗”...直到九月中旬</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-03 08:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFrom \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...<blockquote>从“伽马锤子”到“伽马松开”，今年以来，泵、转储和BTFD的周期一直有增无减，自5月份以来，围绕期权到期的模式变得越来越明显……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7076de5ca2ad0449cc411eb7af1aaf37\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes thatthe (options market) “tail” continues to wag the (cash equities market) “dog,” crunched by “yield enhancement” / “income generating” overwriting flows(that even The FT is starting to pay attention to).<blockquote>野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出（期权市场）“尾巴”继续摇着（现金股票市场）“狗”，受到“收益率增强”/“创收”覆盖流的挤压（就连英国《金融时报》也开始关注这一点）。</blockquote> The surge into these 'overwriting' funds...<blockquote>这些“覆盖”基金的激增...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca90f6652e83b4d50274c525d9d8e0f0\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> ...has stuffed dealers to the gills with gamma and delta exposures at extreme levels...<blockquote>...让毒贩们吃了大量的伽马和德尔塔暴露....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6477f30c8b5147bbb69d941e6aeebfe3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For some context on what this means, the Nomura strategist explains:<blockquote>对于这意味着什么的一些背景，野村证券策略师解释道：</blockquote> The cumulative flows from the “Gamma Hammer” strangle-seller alone (2 clips a day, ~3x’s a week in approximately 2-3 week expiration 20d strangles) has Dealers long ~$3B in Gamma (and at a cost of nearly ~5.0mm / day in decay) - which means that for a generic 100bps selloff, desks would in theory be in the mkt buying ~$2.5B of futures - which in-turn prevents any nascent selloff from developing thanks to said “insulation” Which is obvious when we see there hasn't been a 3bps drawdown since May...<blockquote>仅来自“Gamma Hammer”扼杀卖家的累积流量（每天2个剪辑，每周约3次，大约2-3周到期20d扼杀）就让经销商在Gamma中做多约30亿美元（并且成本接近约5.0毫米/天衰减）-这意味着，对于一般的100个基点的抛售，理论上，柜台将在市场上购买约2.5 B美元的期货——这反过来又由于所说的“绝缘”而防止了任何新生的抛售的发展当我们看到自5月份以来没有出现3个基点的下降时，这一点是显而易见的...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b7bf4799004c692996b8cba846acf4\" tg-width=\"1256\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But, McElligott'sfocus is on the mid-September period as the point where US Equities may locally “peak”:<blockquote>但是McElligott的重点关注9月中旬，美股可能局部“见顶”：</blockquote> ...as the now well-publicized Op-Ex cycle “volatility expansion” phenomenon&nbsp; (VIX 15th, index / ETFs 17th&nbsp;and set-up for another large “Gamma unclench” occurring while then too losing aforementioned Vanna- and Charm- supports into this large serial / qtrly expiration)&nbsp; coinciding with the “buyback blackout”kicking-off for US Financials in that 3rd&nbsp;week of September… and all ahead of the FOMC on the 22nd Specifically, McElligott notes thatThe Fed timing here is particularly meaningful- not because the potential for an “official” announcement of “tapering” is some massive deal to markets (I believe we are well past that now) - but more because the potential for movement in the Committee’s economic projections and thus, the “dots,” which could cause some Rates upheaval after being firmly parked within their own range-trade hellscape for the past two months themselves (UST 10Y yields ~1.10-1.40).<blockquote>...作为现在广为人知的Op-Ex周期“波动扩张”现象（VIX第15位，指数/ETF第17位以及又一次大型“伽马解锁”同时也失去了前面提到的Vanna和Charm支持进入这个大的连续/季度到期） 恰逢“回购大停电”美国金融股将于九月第三周拉开帷幕……和都在22日FOMC之前具体来说，McElligott指出美联储在这里的时机特别有意义-不是因为“官方”宣布“缩减规模”的可能性对市场来说是一件大事（我相信我们现在已经远远超过了这一点）-而是因为委员会的经济预测以及“圆点”可能会发生变动，这可能会在过去两个月牢牢地停留在自己的区间内后引起一些利率剧变——交易地狱般的景象（UST 10年期收益率约为1.10-1.40）。</blockquote> And because of the potential for US Rates volatility around / after the 22nd Fed meeting as the market resets expectations on both the future path of hikes (off the new economic projections) and tapering,I think this “event risk” could then decrease the supply of “short vol” which has been conditioned to step-in the moment that volatility typically expands(i.e. around the Op-Ex cycle, which has finally gone “mainstream” and seemingly now trades like it too….see this past weekend’s write-up from Bloomberg “Options Turn Upheavals Into a Mid-Month Sure Thing for S&amp;P 500”).<blockquote>而且由于随着市场重新设定对未来加息路径（脱离新的经济预测）和缩减购债规模的预期，美国利率在第22次美联储会议前后可能会出现波动，我认为这种“事件风险”可能会减少“空头vol”的供应，空头vol已经习惯于在波动性通常扩大的时刻介入（即围绕Op-Ex周期，它最终成为“主流”，现在似乎也像它一样交易…参见上周末彭博的文章“期权将剧变变成标普500月中的必然事件”）。</blockquote> This could mean a longer period without the support that comes from said “short vol” flows reflexively swooping-in to save the day, which over the past decade + have acted to reset nascent spikes in volatility and stop the bleeding—IF this time we were to see those flows on hold due to the FOMC event risk a week later, their potential absence could allow for the “delta one” flow to hold more sway than usual of late (all that EPIC $Delta from index / ETF options as a source of de-risking flow, as well as Vol Control strategy de-allocation supply into an rVol move higher off of such an absolutely low base).<blockquote>这可能意味着在更长的一段时间内，没有来自所述“空头波动”流的支持，这些“空头波动”流反射性地猛扑来挽救局面，在过去十多年中，这些流已经起到了重置波动性峰值并止血的作用-如果这一次我们在一周后看到这些流量因FOMC事件风险而被搁置，它们的潜在缺席可能会让“delta one”流量最近比平时拥有更大的影响力（所有史诗般的$Delta来自指数/ETF期权作为去风险流量的来源，以及Vol控制策略将供应去分配到rVol中，使其从如此绝对低的基数上走高）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/options-tail-will-continue-wag-stock-markets-dog-until-mid-september\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/options-tail-will-continue-wag-stock-markets-dog-until-mid-september","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191815337","content_text":"From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...\nNomura's Charlie McElligott notes thatthe (options market) “tail” continues to wag the (cash equities market) “dog,” crunched by “yield enhancement” / “income generating” overwriting flows(that even The FT is starting to pay attention to).\nThe surge into these 'overwriting' funds...\n\n...has stuffed dealers to the gills with gamma and delta exposures at extreme levels...\nFor some context on what this means, the Nomura strategist explains:\n\n The cumulative flows from the “Gamma Hammer” strangle-seller alone (2 clips a day, ~3x’s a week in approximately 2-3 week expiration 20d strangles) has Dealers long ~$3B in Gamma (and at a cost of nearly ~5.0mm / day in decay) -\n which means that for a generic 100bps selloff, desks would in theory be in the mkt buying ~$2.5B of futures - which in-turn prevents any nascent selloff from developing thanks to said “insulation”\n\nWhich is obvious when we see there hasn't been a 3bps drawdown since May...\nBut, McElligott'sfocus is on the mid-September period as the point where US Equities may locally “peak”:\n\n...as the now well-publicized Op-Ex cycle “volatility expansion” phenomenon \n (VIX 15th, index / ETFs 17th and set-up for\nanother large “Gamma unclench”\noccurring while then too losing aforementioned Vanna- and Charm- supports into this large serial / qtrly expiration) \n coinciding with the “buyback blackout”kicking-off for US Financials in that 3rd week of September…\n and\nall ahead of the FOMC on the 22nd\n\nSpecifically, McElligott notes thatThe Fed timing here is particularly meaningful- not because the potential for an “official” announcement of “tapering” is some massive deal to markets (I believe we are well past that now) - but more because the potential for movement in the Committee’s economic projections and thus, the “dots,” which could cause some Rates upheaval after being firmly parked within their own range-trade hellscape for the past two months themselves (UST 10Y yields ~1.10-1.40).\nAnd because of the potential for US Rates volatility around / after the 22nd Fed meeting as the market resets expectations on both the future path of hikes (off the new economic projections) and tapering,I think this “event risk” could then decrease the supply of “short vol” which has been conditioned to step-in the moment that volatility typically expands(i.e. around the Op-Ex cycle, which has finally gone “mainstream” and seemingly now trades like it too….see this past weekend’s write-up from Bloomberg “Options Turn Upheavals Into a Mid-Month Sure Thing for S&P 500”).\nThis could mean a longer period without the support that comes from said “short vol” flows reflexively swooping-in to save the day, which over the past decade + have acted to reset nascent spikes in volatility and stop the bleeding—IF this time we were to see those flows on hold due to the FOMC event risk a week later, their potential absence could allow for the “delta one” flow to hold more sway than usual of late (all that EPIC $Delta from index / ETF options as a source of de-risking flow, as well as Vol Control strategy de-allocation supply into an rVol move higher off of such an absolutely low base).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/815091217"}