EDWINHLC
2021-09-07
Ok
3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
4
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":817283065,"tweetId":"817283065","gmtCreate":1630969446157,"gmtModify":1631889436115,"author":{"id":3582422606150116,"idStr":"3582422606150116","authorId":3582422606150116,"authorIdStr":"3582422606150116","name":"EDWINHLC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1713fcfede7d5ef4d896338f3a585a14","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":92,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817283065","repostId":1186375251,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186375251","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630909435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186375251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 14:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186375251","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correcti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li> <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li> <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li> <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周都在继续创下历史新高，并且在200多个交易日中没有出现明显的回调。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而在历史高点做出投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在今天的市场上你应该注意什么？您应该以这些高估的价格卖出，还是今天买入仍然可以获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在像今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）今年迄今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上行区间内交易，已经208个交易日没有出现5%的回调。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是异常现象，但事实确实如此。这两个事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个非常时期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天彻底思考你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策是加倍重要的。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在Covid-19崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者就知道了。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报的重要性，这就是为什么我选择写下我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？您应该在这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生巨大的回报？本文将提供这些价值百万美元的问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪所困</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，普通投资者的年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显落后于大盘，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情绪化的人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价走势和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们达到了一个极其看涨的股市环境。上一个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长94.5%，86.1%的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨的环境，分析师大幅上调了对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到2022年底，每股收益将大幅升至217.96美元，较大流行前157.12美元的高点大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中花了7-12年才实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度的盈利真的会继续这种非常强劲的复苏吗？还是分析师可能对他们的假设过于贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下行周期也存在。他们将2000年之后五年的年度每股收益增长指引提高到惊人的15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的倍数是合理的，许多投资者被骗了。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>之后发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003年的盈利比分析师2000年的预测低了近50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑可能的低迷，标普500崩溃并花了7年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天...标普500的市盈率目前为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为收入将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到2022年底，该比率将降至可接受的20.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问你自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机的纸快用完了。联邦债务水平正在触及上限。过去几个季度，被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，仅仅是也许，分析师对他们的假设过于贪婪？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，并将降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测的（红线）更有可能？如果是这样的话，市场的2022年预期市盈率为23.6倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人知道。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎一模一样。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在FOMO大举买入，因为股市“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在2021年最后几个月升至接近20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全押风险资产的冲动。然而，在此阶段变得贪婪可能会对您的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为接下来可能会出现重大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类行为使得不被市场情绪分心变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将大大有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，规则1说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所引导，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不是真的...你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样的话：</blockquote></p><p> <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b> I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场的前景来买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何他们都不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，史上估值最高的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）不断买入优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网泡沫达到顶峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000(IWM)是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估的资产类别的人也获得了非常稳健的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最伟大的小盘股的人比那些被骗进过度炒作的科技股的人要快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。当Covid-19的干扰（刺激、被压抑的需求等）消失后，将它们的估值与3年后的收益进行权衡。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司（AAPL）就是一个很好的例子，它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其财务状况非常强劲（上季度收入增长36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中增长了一倍多，达到30倍。重要的是要明白，它最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要将所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像2000年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小盘股）目前的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。到了紧要关头，很难否认自己的情绪，也很难在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是第三点发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将面临的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循一个可以依赖的预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用了一个在过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很好。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的策略在未来几年将非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内幕交易。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上的任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价与业务基本面脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过SEC文件或openinsider.com等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内幕交易。我们根据过去十年的100多万个数据点创建了三种算法，从所有内幕购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金精选”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回溯测试显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了47.2%的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。只有在2011年，它的表现略逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股市为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、经过验证的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当达到历史高点时，大多数股市投资者都固步自封。最重要的是，在这样一个牛市中，什么都不会出错，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场是周期性发展的，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将会受到长期回报疲软的打击。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol> <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li> <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li> <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪心。</b>由于情绪行为，当市场上涨时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远专注于基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境下总有很大的机会。如今，它们大多出现在不为人知的小盘股中。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始南移的时候。采用严格的、经过验证的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 14:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li> <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li> <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li> <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周都在继续创下历史新高，并且在200多个交易日中没有出现明显的回调。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而在历史高点做出投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在今天的市场上你应该注意什么？您应该以这些高估的价格卖出，还是今天买入仍然可以获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在像今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）今年迄今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上行区间内交易，已经208个交易日没有出现5%的回调。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是异常现象，但事实确实如此。这两个事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个非常时期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天彻底思考你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策是加倍重要的。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在Covid-19崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者就知道了。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报的重要性，这就是为什么我选择写下我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？您应该在这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生巨大的回报？本文将提供这些价值百万美元的问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪所困</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，普通投资者的年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显落后于大盘，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情绪化的人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价走势和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们达到了一个极其看涨的股市环境。上一个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长94.5%，86.1%的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨的环境，分析师大幅上调了对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到2022年底，每股收益将大幅升至217.96美元，较大流行前157.12美元的高点大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中花了7-12年才实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度的盈利真的会继续这种非常强劲的复苏吗？还是分析师可能对他们的假设过于贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下行周期也存在。他们将2000年之后五年的年度每股收益增长指引提高到惊人的15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的倍数是合理的，许多投资者被骗了。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>之后发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003年的盈利比分析师2000年的预测低了近50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑可能的低迷，标普500崩溃并花了7年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天...标普500的市盈率目前为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为收入将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到2022年底，该比率将降至可接受的20.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问你自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机的纸快用完了。联邦债务水平正在触及上限。过去几个季度，被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，仅仅是也许，分析师对他们的假设过于贪婪？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，并将降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测的（红线）更有可能？如果是这样的话，市场的2022年预期市盈率为23.6倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人知道。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎一模一样。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在FOMO大举买入，因为股市“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在2021年最后几个月升至接近20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全押风险资产的冲动。然而，在此阶段变得贪婪可能会对您的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为接下来可能会出现重大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类行为使得不被市场情绪分心变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将大大有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，规则1说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所引导，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不是真的...你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样的话：</blockquote></p><p> <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b> I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场的前景来买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何他们都不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，史上估值最高的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）不断买入优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网泡沫达到顶峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000(IWM)是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估的资产类别的人也获得了非常稳健的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最伟大的小盘股的人比那些被骗进过度炒作的科技股的人要快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。当Covid-19的干扰（刺激、被压抑的需求等）消失后，将它们的估值与3年后的收益进行权衡。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司（AAPL）就是一个很好的例子，它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其财务状况非常强劲（上季度收入增长36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中增长了一倍多，达到30倍。重要的是要明白，它最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要将所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像2000年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小盘股）目前的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。到了紧要关头，很难否认自己的情绪，也很难在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是第三点发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将面临的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循一个可以依赖的预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用了一个在过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很好。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的策略在未来几年将非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内幕交易。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上的任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价与业务基本面脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过SEC文件或openinsider.com等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内幕交易。我们根据过去十年的100多万个数据点创建了三种算法，从所有内幕购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金精选”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回溯测试显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了47.2%的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。只有在2011年，它的表现略逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股市为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、经过验证的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当达到历史高点时，大多数股市投资者都固步自封。最重要的是，在这样一个牛市中，什么都不会出错，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场是周期性发展的，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将会受到长期回报疲软的打击。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol> <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li> <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li> <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪心。</b>由于情绪行为，当市场上涨时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远专注于基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境下总有很大的机会。如今，它们大多出现在不为人知的小盘股中。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始南移的时候。采用严格的、经过验证的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186375251","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.\nAs markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.\nWhat should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?\nIn this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.\n\nphive2015/iStock via Getty Images\nThe stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nEach day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.\nHowever, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.\nThe importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.\n1. Don't get caught by greediness\nLet's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.\nAccording to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.\nThe single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.\nThe average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.\nToday, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.\nAs a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used\nWill earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?\nIt wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.\nWhat happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.\nAs markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nLet's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.\nNow ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.\nInterest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.\nMaybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.\nI'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nThis greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.\nInterestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.\nAs a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nHuman behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.\n2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities\nIn short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?\nNot really... You know, a wise man once said the following:\n\nIt's a market of stocks, not a stock market.\n\nI'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.\nWhat does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.\nThat's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.\nIn a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.\nThe Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.\nData by YCharts\nSo what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.\nA great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.\nDon't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.\nSource: Yardeni\n3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks\nRule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.\nThat's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.\nWith the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.\nThere are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.\nTo find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.\nWe don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".\nIt worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities\n\nWe firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.\nConclusion: Do this at all-time highs\nMost stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?\nNo, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.\nHow should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:\n\nDon't get greedy.As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.\nKeep being invested.Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.\nAdopt a proven strategy.Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/817283065"}
精彩评论