SilentWarrio
2021-10-08
Scary...
Warren Buffett’s folksy investing advice is just what you need in this unfriendly stock market<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的民间投资建议正是你在这个不友好的股市中所需要的</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
7
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":823266119,"tweetId":"823266119","gmtCreate":1633639391769,"gmtModify":1633639392115,"author":{"id":3580689210488653,"idStr":"3580689210488653","authorId":3580689210488653,"authorIdStr":"3580689210488653","name":"SilentWarrio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c904a9b7d64fe6eb5230d2a57a74ffee","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":51,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Scary...</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Scary...</p></body></html>","text":"Scary...","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823266119","repostId":1194460907,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194460907","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633610916,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1194460907?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-07 20:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett’s folksy investing advice is just what you need in this unfriendly stock market<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的民间投资建议正是你在这个不友好的股市中所需要的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194460907","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Fundamentals apply, no matter what financial fads are capturing stock investors’ attention.\n\nIndivid","content":"<p> <b>Fundamentals apply, no matter what financial fads are capturing stock investors’ attention.</b> Individual investors are back. Throughout 2021, they directly invested billions of dollars in U.S. stocks and real estate. But these assets are now priced at troublingly high levels, and fears of a correction are feeding volatility. Rising U.S. inflation, taxes, and government debt present systemic challenges. Political and social discord prevail. And there’s COVID.</p><p><blockquote><b>无论什么样的金融时尚吸引了股票投资者的注意力，基本面都适用。</b>个人投资者回来了。整个2021年，他们直接投资了数十亿美元的美股和房地产。但这些资产目前的定价高得令人不安，对调整的担忧加剧了波动性。美国不断上升的通货膨胀、税收和政府债务带来了系统性挑战。政治和社会不和盛行。还有科维德。</blockquote></p><p> Facing such turmoil, individual investors are eager for guidance. There are few better sources than Berkshire Hathaway’sBRK.A,+0.80%BRK.B,+0.78%Warren Buffett, renowned for a matchless investment record across six volatile decades as well as for his savvy, accessible advice for investors. On point is this gem from 1994:</p><p><blockquote>面对这样的风波，个人投资者渴望得到指导。伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）的sBRK.A,+0.80%BRK.B,+0.78%沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）以其在动荡的六十年中无与伦比的投资记录以及为投资者提供的精明、通俗易懂的建议而闻名。这是1994年的宝石：</blockquote></p><p> “Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. But, surprise — none of these blockbuster events made the slightest dent in [fundamental] investment principles.”</p><p><blockquote>“30 年前，没有人能预料到越南战争的巨大扩大、工资和物价控制、两次石油危机、总统辞职、苏联解体、道琼斯指数单日下跌 508 点，或者国库券收益率在 2.8% 到 17.4% 之间波动。但是，令人惊讶的是，这些重大事件都没有对（基本）投资原则造成丝毫影响。”</blockquote></p><p> As unprecedented as these times may seem, from angst to innovation, another Buffett gem reminds us that we’ve been here before. In 2018, Buffett wrote again of how the fundamentals of investing are timeless:</p><p><blockquote>从焦虑到创新，这个时代看似前所未有，但巴菲特的另一颗宝石提醒我们，我们以前来过这里。2018年，巴菲特再次写道，投资基本面是永恒的：</blockquote></p><p> “Since 1942… the country contended at various times with a long period of viral inflation, a 21% prime rate, several controversial and costly wars, the resignation of a president, a pervasive collapse in home values, a paralyzing financial panic and a host of other problems.”</p><p><blockquote>“自 1942 年以来.美国在不同时期与长期的病毒性通货膨胀、21% 的最优惠利率、几场有争议且代价高昂的战争、总统辞职、房屋价值普遍崩溃、瘫痪性的金融恐慌以及一系列其他问题作斗争”。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett has always believed that the fundamentals of investing remain intact even in the face of financial fads or innovations, from the tech bubble of the late 1990s to today’s meme stocks or social investing funds.</p><p><blockquote>从 20 世纪 90 年代末的科技泡沫到今天的备忘录股票或社会投资基金，巴菲特一直认为，即使面对金融时尚或创新，投资的基本面也不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> The fundamentals of investing are collated in homespun and humorous essays Buffett has been writing for the shareholders of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, for six decades. Since 1996, with Buffett’s support, I have published a collection of the best of these, representing a comprehensive, non-repetitive and compact mini-course useful to any individual investor.</p><p><blockquote>六十年来，巴菲特一直在为其公司伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的股东撰写的朴实无华、幽默幽默的文章中梳理投资基础知识。自 1996 年以来，在巴菲特的支持下，我出版了一本精选集，是一本全面、非重复、简洁的迷你课程，对任何个人投资者都很有用。</blockquote></p><p> In this year’s essay, Buffett warned about the perils of investing by individuals, particularly now in a period brimming with “promoters” telling “stories” that create “illusions” for the gullible. Springing to mind are SPACs, ETFs, ESG funds, and other fashionable offerings. Buffett cautions against “speculators” peddling “enticing ideas” and “calls for action” that “never stop.”</p><p><blockquote>在今年的文章中，巴菲特警告了个人投资的危险，尤其是在现在这个充斥着 “推广者 ”讲述 “故事 ”的时代，这些故事给容易受骗的人制造了 “幻觉 ”。浮现在脑海中的是 SPAC、ETF、ESG 基金和其他时尚产品。巴菲特警告 “投机者 ”不要兜售 “诱人的想法 ”和 “永不停歇的评级行动 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett advises avoiding such lures. In contrast, he uses two examples from his own investing experience to highlight the appeal for investing of common sense, simplicity and business focus. The examples are his investments in an Omaha farm (in 1986) and a New York City apartment building (in 1993) in which he earned outsized returns by adhering to just a few fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特建议避免此类诱惑。相比之下，他用自己投资经历中的两个例子来强调常识、简单性和商业焦点对投资的吸引力。例如，他在奥马哈的一个农场（1986年）和纽约市的一栋公寓楼（1993年）的投资，在这些投资中，他仅仅通过坚持几个基本原则就获得了巨额回报。</blockquote></p><p> First, Buffett has long said the three most important words in investing are “margin of safety.” He refers to the phrase coined by his mentor, Benjamin Graham, who stressed that investment opportunities arise when priced below value. Buffett purchased the farm from a failed banker, and the building from a government receiver. They were eager sellers offering low prices given market conditions. Hunting for such safety is especially important in current highly-priced markets.</p><p><blockquote>首先，巴菲特早就说过，投资中最重要的三个词是 “安全边际”。他引用了他的导师本杰明·格雷厄姆创造的一句话，格雷厄姆强调，当价格低于价值时，投资机会就会出现。巴菲特从一个倒闭的银行家手中买下了农场，从一个政府接管人手中买下了大楼。考虑到市场条件，他们是急切的卖家，出价很低。在当前高价市场中，寻找这种安全尤为重要。</blockquote></p><p> Second, Buffett says “keep it simple” and “don’t swing for the fences.” He isn’t an expert in farming or real estate. But he understood enough to estimate revenues and expenses on these assets over a decade-long holding period. Buffett estimated a 10% return, which he judged reasonable for the moderate risk. In fact, both of these investments saw earnings triple estimates and their value quintuple. If you keep it simple, meaning invest in things you understand, you only need basic competence to comfortably make economic estimates.</p><p><blockquote>其次，巴菲特说 “保持简单 ”和 “不要为栅栏摇摆”。他不是农业或房地产方面的专家。但他有足够的了解来估算这些资产在十年持有期内的收入和支出。巴菲特估计回报率为 10%，他认为对于中等风险来说这是合理的。事实上，这两项投资的盈利预期增加了两倍，价值增加了五倍。如果你保持简单，即投资于你理解的事情，你只需要基本的能力就可以轻松地做出经济估计。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, Buffett advises to “focus on the playing field, not the scoreboard.” By this he means to study the asset and related business prospects rather than any market price. In stocks, for example, focus on the value of the expected cash flows over the next 10 years, not on today’s closing price; for an office building, focus on the value of the expected rent rolls, not on the sales price of the building down the block.</p><p><blockquote>最后，巴菲特建议 “关注比赛场地，而不是记分牌”。他的意思是研究资产和相关业务前景，而不是任何市场价格。例如，在股票方面，要关注未来 10 年的预期现金流价值，而不是今天的收盘价；对于办公楼，关注预期租金的价值，而不是街区内大楼的销售价格。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors know that investing is not easy and that choppy waters can make things uncomfortable. Following the fundamentals helps, as does the perspective that history provides.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者知道投资并不容易，波涛汹涌会让事情变得不舒服。遵循基本面是有帮助的，历史提供的视角也是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Lawrence A. Cunningham is a professor at George Washington University, founder of the Quality Shareholders Group, and publisher, since 1997, of “The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America.” Cunningham owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>劳伦斯-A-坎宁安（Lawrence A. Cunningham）是乔治华盛顿大学教授，也是优质股东组织（Quality Shareholders Group）的创始人，自 1997 年以来出版了《沃伦-巴菲特随笔： 美国企业的教训》。坎宁安拥有伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的股份。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett’s folksy investing advice is just what you need in this unfriendly stock market<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的民间投资建议正是你在这个不友好的股市中所需要的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett’s folksy investing advice is just what you need in this unfriendly stock market<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的民间投资建议正是你在这个不友好的股市中所需要的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-07 20:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Fundamentals apply, no matter what financial fads are capturing stock investors’ attention.</b> Individual investors are back. Throughout 2021, they directly invested billions of dollars in U.S. stocks and real estate. But these assets are now priced at troublingly high levels, and fears of a correction are feeding volatility. Rising U.S. inflation, taxes, and government debt present systemic challenges. Political and social discord prevail. And there’s COVID.</p><p><blockquote><b>无论什么样的金融时尚吸引了股票投资者的注意力，基本面都适用。</b>个人投资者回来了。整个2021年，他们直接投资了数十亿美元的美股和房地产。但这些资产目前的定价高得令人不安，对调整的担忧加剧了波动性。美国不断上升的通货膨胀、税收和政府债务带来了系统性挑战。政治和社会不和盛行。还有科维德。</blockquote></p><p> Facing such turmoil, individual investors are eager for guidance. There are few better sources than Berkshire Hathaway’sBRK.A,+0.80%BRK.B,+0.78%Warren Buffett, renowned for a matchless investment record across six volatile decades as well as for his savvy, accessible advice for investors. On point is this gem from 1994:</p><p><blockquote>面对这样的风波，个人投资者渴望得到指导。伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）的sBRK.A,+0.80%BRK.B,+0.78%沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）以其在动荡的六十年中无与伦比的投资记录以及为投资者提供的精明、通俗易懂的建议而闻名。这是1994年的宝石：</blockquote></p><p> “Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. But, surprise — none of these blockbuster events made the slightest dent in [fundamental] investment principles.”</p><p><blockquote>“30 年前，没有人能预料到越南战争的巨大扩大、工资和物价控制、两次石油危机、总统辞职、苏联解体、道琼斯指数单日下跌 508 点，或者国库券收益率在 2.8% 到 17.4% 之间波动。但是，令人惊讶的是，这些重大事件都没有对（基本）投资原则造成丝毫影响。”</blockquote></p><p> As unprecedented as these times may seem, from angst to innovation, another Buffett gem reminds us that we’ve been here before. In 2018, Buffett wrote again of how the fundamentals of investing are timeless:</p><p><blockquote>从焦虑到创新，这个时代看似前所未有，但巴菲特的另一颗宝石提醒我们，我们以前来过这里。2018年，巴菲特再次写道，投资基本面是永恒的：</blockquote></p><p> “Since 1942… the country contended at various times with a long period of viral inflation, a 21% prime rate, several controversial and costly wars, the resignation of a president, a pervasive collapse in home values, a paralyzing financial panic and a host of other problems.”</p><p><blockquote>“自 1942 年以来.美国在不同时期与长期的病毒性通货膨胀、21% 的最优惠利率、几场有争议且代价高昂的战争、总统辞职、房屋价值普遍崩溃、瘫痪性的金融恐慌以及一系列其他问题作斗争”。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett has always believed that the fundamentals of investing remain intact even in the face of financial fads or innovations, from the tech bubble of the late 1990s to today’s meme stocks or social investing funds.</p><p><blockquote>从 20 世纪 90 年代末的科技泡沫到今天的备忘录股票或社会投资基金，巴菲特一直认为，即使面对金融时尚或创新，投资的基本面也不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> The fundamentals of investing are collated in homespun and humorous essays Buffett has been writing for the shareholders of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, for six decades. Since 1996, with Buffett’s support, I have published a collection of the best of these, representing a comprehensive, non-repetitive and compact mini-course useful to any individual investor.</p><p><blockquote>六十年来，巴菲特一直在为其公司伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的股东撰写的朴实无华、幽默幽默的文章中梳理投资基础知识。自 1996 年以来，在巴菲特的支持下，我出版了一本精选集，是一本全面、非重复、简洁的迷你课程，对任何个人投资者都很有用。</blockquote></p><p> In this year’s essay, Buffett warned about the perils of investing by individuals, particularly now in a period brimming with “promoters” telling “stories” that create “illusions” for the gullible. Springing to mind are SPACs, ETFs, ESG funds, and other fashionable offerings. Buffett cautions against “speculators” peddling “enticing ideas” and “calls for action” that “never stop.”</p><p><blockquote>在今年的文章中，巴菲特警告了个人投资的危险，尤其是在现在这个充斥着 “推广者 ”讲述 “故事 ”的时代，这些故事给容易受骗的人制造了 “幻觉 ”。浮现在脑海中的是 SPAC、ETF、ESG 基金和其他时尚产品。巴菲特警告 “投机者 ”不要兜售 “诱人的想法 ”和 “永不停歇的评级行动 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett advises avoiding such lures. In contrast, he uses two examples from his own investing experience to highlight the appeal for investing of common sense, simplicity and business focus. The examples are his investments in an Omaha farm (in 1986) and a New York City apartment building (in 1993) in which he earned outsized returns by adhering to just a few fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特建议避免此类诱惑。相比之下，他用自己投资经历中的两个例子来强调常识、简单性和商业焦点对投资的吸引力。例如，他在奥马哈的一个农场（1986年）和纽约市的一栋公寓楼（1993年）的投资，在这些投资中，他仅仅通过坚持几个基本原则就获得了巨额回报。</blockquote></p><p> First, Buffett has long said the three most important words in investing are “margin of safety.” He refers to the phrase coined by his mentor, Benjamin Graham, who stressed that investment opportunities arise when priced below value. Buffett purchased the farm from a failed banker, and the building from a government receiver. They were eager sellers offering low prices given market conditions. Hunting for such safety is especially important in current highly-priced markets.</p><p><blockquote>首先，巴菲特早就说过，投资中最重要的三个词是 “安全边际”。他引用了他的导师本杰明·格雷厄姆创造的一句话，格雷厄姆强调，当价格低于价值时，投资机会就会出现。巴菲特从一个倒闭的银行家手中买下了农场，从一个政府接管人手中买下了大楼。考虑到市场条件，他们是急切的卖家，出价很低。在当前高价市场中，寻找这种安全尤为重要。</blockquote></p><p> Second, Buffett says “keep it simple” and “don’t swing for the fences.” He isn’t an expert in farming or real estate. But he understood enough to estimate revenues and expenses on these assets over a decade-long holding period. Buffett estimated a 10% return, which he judged reasonable for the moderate risk. In fact, both of these investments saw earnings triple estimates and their value quintuple. If you keep it simple, meaning invest in things you understand, you only need basic competence to comfortably make economic estimates.</p><p><blockquote>其次，巴菲特说 “保持简单 ”和 “不要为栅栏摇摆”。他不是农业或房地产方面的专家。但他有足够的了解来估算这些资产在十年持有期内的收入和支出。巴菲特估计回报率为 10%，他认为对于中等风险来说这是合理的。事实上，这两项投资的盈利预期增加了两倍，价值增加了五倍。如果你保持简单，即投资于你理解的事情，你只需要基本的能力就可以轻松地做出经济估计。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, Buffett advises to “focus on the playing field, not the scoreboard.” By this he means to study the asset and related business prospects rather than any market price. In stocks, for example, focus on the value of the expected cash flows over the next 10 years, not on today’s closing price; for an office building, focus on the value of the expected rent rolls, not on the sales price of the building down the block.</p><p><blockquote>最后，巴菲特建议 “关注比赛场地，而不是记分牌”。他的意思是研究资产和相关业务前景，而不是任何市场价格。例如，在股票方面，要关注未来 10 年的预期现金流价值，而不是今天的收盘价；对于办公楼，关注预期租金的价值，而不是街区内大楼的销售价格。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors know that investing is not easy and that choppy waters can make things uncomfortable. Following the fundamentals helps, as does the perspective that history provides.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者知道投资并不容易，波涛汹涌会让事情变得不舒服。遵循基本面是有帮助的，历史提供的视角也是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Lawrence A. Cunningham is a professor at George Washington University, founder of the Quality Shareholders Group, and publisher, since 1997, of “The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America.” Cunningham owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>劳伦斯-A-坎宁安（Lawrence A. Cunningham）是乔治华盛顿大学教授，也是优质股东组织（Quality Shareholders Group）的创始人，自 1997 年以来出版了《沃伦-巴菲特随笔： 美国企业的教训》。坎宁安拥有伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的股份。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-folksy-investing-advice-is-just-what-you-need-in-this-unfriendly-stock-market-11633589615?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-folksy-investing-advice-is-just-what-you-need-in-this-unfriendly-stock-market-11633589615?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1194460907","content_text":"Fundamentals apply, no matter what financial fads are capturing stock investors’ attention.\n\nIndividual investors are back. Throughout 2021, they directly invested billions of dollars in U.S. stocks and real estate. But these assets are now priced at troublingly high levels, and fears of a correction are feeding volatility. Rising U.S. inflation, taxes, and government debt present systemic challenges. Political and social discord prevail. And there’s COVID.\nFacing such turmoil, individual investors are eager for guidance. There are few better sources than Berkshire Hathaway’sBRK.A,+0.80%BRK.B,+0.78%Warren Buffett, renowned for a matchless investment record across six volatile decades as well as for his savvy, accessible advice for investors. On point is this gem from 1994:\n“Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. But, surprise — none of these blockbuster events made the slightest dent in [fundamental] investment principles.”\nAs unprecedented as these times may seem, from angst to innovation, another Buffett gem reminds us that we’ve been here before. In 2018, Buffett wrote again of how the fundamentals of investing are timeless:\n“Since 1942… the country contended at various times with a long period of viral inflation, a 21% prime rate, several controversial and costly wars, the resignation of a president, a pervasive collapse in home values, a paralyzing financial panic and a host of other problems.”\nBuffett has always believed that the fundamentals of investing remain intact even in the face of financial fads or innovations, from the tech bubble of the late 1990s to today’s meme stocks or social investing funds.\nThe fundamentals of investing are collated in homespun and humorous essays Buffett has been writing for the shareholders of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, for six decades. Since 1996, with Buffett’s support, I have published a collection of the best of these, representing a comprehensive, non-repetitive and compact mini-course useful to any individual investor.\nIn this year’s essay, Buffett warned about the perils of investing by individuals, particularly now in a period brimming with “promoters” telling “stories” that create “illusions” for the gullible. Springing to mind are SPACs, ETFs, ESG funds, and other fashionable offerings. Buffett cautions against “speculators” peddling “enticing ideas” and “calls for action” that “never stop.”\nBuffett advises avoiding such lures. In contrast, he uses two examples from his own investing experience to highlight the appeal for investing of common sense, simplicity and business focus. The examples are his investments in an Omaha farm (in 1986) and a New York City apartment building (in 1993) in which he earned outsized returns by adhering to just a few fundamentals.\nFirst, Buffett has long said the three most important words in investing are “margin of safety.” He refers to the phrase coined by his mentor, Benjamin Graham, who stressed that investment opportunities arise when priced below value. Buffett purchased the farm from a failed banker, and the building from a government receiver. They were eager sellers offering low prices given market conditions. Hunting for such safety is especially important in current highly-priced markets.\nSecond, Buffett says “keep it simple” and “don’t swing for the fences.” He isn’t an expert in farming or real estate. But he understood enough to estimate revenues and expenses on these assets over a decade-long holding period. Buffett estimated a 10% return, which he judged reasonable for the moderate risk. In fact, both of these investments saw earnings triple estimates and their value quintuple. If you keep it simple, meaning invest in things you understand, you only need basic competence to comfortably make economic estimates.\nFinally, Buffett advises to “focus on the playing field, not the scoreboard.” By this he means to study the asset and related business prospects rather than any market price. In stocks, for example, focus on the value of the expected cash flows over the next 10 years, not on today’s closing price; for an office building, focus on the value of the expected rent rolls, not on the sales price of the building down the block.\nIndividual investors know that investing is not easy and that choppy waters can make things uncomfortable. Following the fundamentals helps, as does the perspective that history provides.\nLawrence A. Cunningham is a professor at George Washington University, founder of the Quality Shareholders Group, and publisher, since 1997, of “The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America.” Cunningham owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/823266119"}
精彩评论