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2021-10-07

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Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面转变可能导致股市走低</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":823343355,"tweetId":"823343355","gmtCreate":1633590123688,"gmtModify":1633590241419,"author":{"id":3582016577975526,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorId":3582016577975526,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[微笑]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[微笑]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[微笑]","highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823343355","repostId":1149738417,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149738417","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633588946,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149738417?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-07 14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面转变可能导致股市走低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149738417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nConsensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</li> <li>There is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.</li> <li>The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</li> </ul> This story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.<blockquote><ul><li>普遍的盈利预期现已下调，更令人担忧的是，目前盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</li><li>现在，未来的盈利预测存在越来越多的不确定性。</li><li>市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是一个重要的支撑位。</li></ul>这个故事最初是在10月2日为南非市场服务Reading The Markets的成员发表的。截至10月6日已更新。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.<blockquote>标普500刚刚经历了一段时间以来最糟糕的一个月，该指数在9月份下跌了约4.8%。这是自2020年3月新冠疫情开始以来的最大跌幅。到目前为止，这一下滑似乎与不断变化的经济环境有关，经济环境的中心是全球增长放缓，根据亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型，美国第三季度GDP增长率为1.3%。这与许多经济学家和分析师在本季度开始时最初预测的 7% 的预测相去甚远。</blockquote> Exhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.<blockquote>图表1：GDPNow预测美国第三季度经济增长率仅为1.3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b7001a14874f54871970ba975bb04c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> As highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.<blockquote>正如多次强调的那样，有明显迹象表明国内生产总值增长正在放缓。现在人们普遍认为第三季度GDP增长将远低于预期，我们相信GDP增长放缓最终会影响盈利预期。如前所述，我们开始看到模型中的盈利预期下降，而共识预期开始停滞不前。这些普遍的盈利预期现已下调，更令人担忧的是，目前盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</blockquote> Worse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&amp;P 500 drawdowns.<blockquote>更糟糕的是，未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。根据历史趋势，盈利预测的不确定性增加似乎与 VIX 指数的飙升和标普500的下跌高度相关。</blockquote> Downward Revisions<blockquote>向下修订</blockquote> Consensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&amp;P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&amp;P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.<blockquote>本周，未来 12 个月 (NTM) 的普遍盈利预期从 212.92 美元降至 212.75 美元。截至 10 月 6 日，这些估计值目前为 211.97 美元，略有下降，但这是自 2020 年 10 月以来估计值首次大幅下降。但更重要的是，过去一周，标普500下调盈利的公司数量增至 209 家；这是自疫情开始以来的最高读数。与此同时，上调评级的股票数量降至 225 只，使差价（价差）仅为 16 只。利差的变化也可能与标普500指数本身的同比变化高度相关。盈利修正利差的下降与2018年初的恶化相似。</blockquote> Exhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.<blockquote>图表 2：盈利下调幅度迅速上升，而盈利上调幅度则在下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2606205081a33afb3a743659b4604f60\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Also, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.<blockquote>此外，也许更重要的是，分析师似乎对盈利预测的未来路径越来越不确定，正如这些预测的标准差所表明的那样。展望未来 18 个月盈利预测的标准差稳步上升。目前为15.1%，高于2月份12.9%的低点。值得注意的是，新冠疫情爆发后的盈利标准差比新冠疫情爆发前高得多。正如 VIX 指数所指出的那样，盈利预测不确定性的上升似乎与股市波动性的上升有关。</blockquote> Increasing Uncertainty<blockquote>不确定性增加</blockquote> Starting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.<blockquote>从 2010 年开始，标准差下降与 VIX 指数下降有关，而标准差增加则导致该指数飙升。</blockquote> Exhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index<blockquote>图表 3：盈利预测的不确定性似乎与 VIX 指数高度相关</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11acbc64c5f8a3ff60ca13892f1cd90\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> This current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.<blockquote>当前时期似乎再次类似于 2018 年，VIX 和盈利不确定性在 2018 年 1 月双双飙升，但更重要的是，在 2018 年 5 月出现分歧，VIX 下降并保持低位，而盈利不确定性则上升。直到2018年10月，VIX才开始飙升。目前，盈利不确定性和VIX一直在下降，直到2021年2月盈利不确定性上升，VIX继续走低。然而，有迹象表明，随着我们进入财报季，VIX 现在开始在 10 月份再次走高。</blockquote> Exhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.<blockquote>图表 4：随着 VIX 指数下跌，盈利不确定性正在上升。上一次发生这种情况是在 2018 年，VIX 最终赶上了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99852382b26fc00adfaee8fb79a97694\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Multiple Contraction<blockquote>多次收缩</blockquote> Additionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&amp;P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.<blockquote>此外，本周标普500的市盈率短暂跌破20.5的关键水平。市盈率（NTM）一直在稳步下降，但始终设法在20.5处找到支撑。本周，它跌破了该水平，并以该水平结束了本周。这可能是市场的一个转折点，表明未来几周比率将进一步收缩。这是有道理的，特别是如果盈利下调和不确定性加剧的话。</blockquote> Exhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.<blockquote>图表5：市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是一个重要的支撑位。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69b122c9e13e4026df2fd5b5af52b52\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&amp;P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.<blockquote>这一切确实开始变得有意义了，为什么我们开始看到标普500指数的波动性上升。由于几个不断变化的基本面因素，包括美联储在货币政策上不断变化的立场，这可能不会对股市有利。再加上盈利预期的真正根本性转变，这可能是市场自 2020 年春季以来的第一次真正考验。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面转变可能导致股市走低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面转变可能导致股市走低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-07 14:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</li> <li>There is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.</li> <li>The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</li> </ul> This story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.<blockquote><ul><li>普遍的盈利预期现已下调，更令人担忧的是，目前盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</li><li>现在，未来的盈利预测存在越来越多的不确定性。</li><li>市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是一个重要的支撑位。</li></ul>这个故事最初是在10月2日为南非市场服务Reading The Markets的成员发表的。截至10月6日已更新。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.<blockquote>标普500刚刚经历了一段时间以来最糟糕的一个月，该指数在9月份下跌了约4.8%。这是自2020年3月新冠疫情开始以来的最大跌幅。到目前为止，这一下滑似乎与不断变化的经济环境有关，经济环境的中心是全球增长放缓，根据亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型，美国第三季度GDP增长率为1.3%。这与许多经济学家和分析师在本季度开始时最初预测的 7% 的预测相去甚远。</blockquote> Exhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.<blockquote>图表1：GDPNow预测美国第三季度经济增长率仅为1.3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b7001a14874f54871970ba975bb04c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> As highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.<blockquote>正如多次强调的那样，有明显迹象表明国内生产总值增长正在放缓。现在人们普遍认为第三季度GDP增长将远低于预期，我们相信GDP增长放缓最终会影响盈利预期。如前所述，我们开始看到模型中的盈利预期下降，而共识预期开始停滞不前。这些普遍的盈利预期现已下调，更令人担忧的是，目前盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</blockquote> Worse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&amp;P 500 drawdowns.<blockquote>更糟糕的是，未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。根据历史趋势，盈利预测的不确定性增加似乎与 VIX 指数的飙升和标普500的下跌高度相关。</blockquote> Downward Revisions<blockquote>向下修订</blockquote> Consensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&amp;P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&amp;P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.<blockquote>本周，未来 12 个月 (NTM) 的普遍盈利预期从 212.92 美元降至 212.75 美元。截至 10 月 6 日，这些估计值目前为 211.97 美元，略有下降，但这是自 2020 年 10 月以来估计值首次大幅下降。但更重要的是，过去一周，标普500下调盈利的公司数量增至 209 家；这是自疫情开始以来的最高读数。与此同时，上调评级的股票数量降至 225 只，使差价（价差）仅为 16 只。利差的变化也可能与标普500指数本身的同比变化高度相关。盈利修正利差的下降与2018年初的恶化相似。</blockquote> Exhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.<blockquote>图表 2：盈利下调幅度迅速上升，而盈利上调幅度则在下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2606205081a33afb3a743659b4604f60\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Also, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.<blockquote>此外，也许更重要的是，分析师似乎对盈利预测的未来路径越来越不确定，正如这些预测的标准差所表明的那样。展望未来 18 个月盈利预测的标准差稳步上升。目前为15.1%，高于2月份12.9%的低点。值得注意的是，新冠疫情爆发后的盈利标准差比新冠疫情爆发前高得多。正如 VIX 指数所指出的那样，盈利预测不确定性的上升似乎与股市波动性的上升有关。</blockquote> Increasing Uncertainty<blockquote>不确定性增加</blockquote> Starting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.<blockquote>从 2010 年开始，标准差下降与 VIX 指数下降有关，而标准差增加则导致该指数飙升。</blockquote> Exhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index<blockquote>图表 3：盈利预测的不确定性似乎与 VIX 指数高度相关</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11acbc64c5f8a3ff60ca13892f1cd90\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> This current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.<blockquote>当前时期似乎再次类似于 2018 年，VIX 和盈利不确定性在 2018 年 1 月双双飙升，但更重要的是，在 2018 年 5 月出现分歧，VIX 下降并保持低位，而盈利不确定性则上升。直到2018年10月，VIX才开始飙升。目前，盈利不确定性和VIX一直在下降，直到2021年2月盈利不确定性上升，VIX继续走低。然而，有迹象表明，随着我们进入财报季，VIX 现在开始在 10 月份再次走高。</blockquote> Exhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.<blockquote>图表 4：随着 VIX 指数下跌，盈利不确定性正在上升。上一次发生这种情况是在 2018 年，VIX 最终赶上了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99852382b26fc00adfaee8fb79a97694\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Multiple Contraction<blockquote>多次收缩</blockquote> Additionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&amp;P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.<blockquote>此外，本周标普500的市盈率短暂跌破20.5的关键水平。市盈率（NTM）一直在稳步下降，但始终设法在20.5处找到支撑。本周，它跌破了该水平，并以该水平结束了本周。这可能是市场的一个转折点，表明未来几周比率将进一步收缩。这是有道理的，特别是如果盈利下调和不确定性加剧的话。</blockquote> Exhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.<blockquote>图表5：市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是一个重要的支撑位。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69b122c9e13e4026df2fd5b5af52b52\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&amp;P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.<blockquote>这一切确实开始变得有意义了，为什么我们开始看到标普500指数的波动性上升。由于几个不断变化的基本面因素，包括美联储在货币政策上不断变化的立场，这可能不会对股市有利。再加上盈利预期的真正根本性转变，这可能是市场自 2020 年春季以来的第一次真正考验。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458687-tactical-update-fundamental-shifts-may-send-the-stock-market-even-lower\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458687-tactical-update-fundamental-shifts-may-send-the-stock-market-even-lower","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149738417","content_text":"Summary\n\nConsensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.\nThere is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.\nThe PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.\n\nThis story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.\nThe S&P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.\nExhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.\n\nAs highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.\nWorse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&P 500 drawdowns.\nDownward Revisions\nConsensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.\nExhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.\n\nAlso, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.\nIncreasing Uncertainty\nStarting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.\nExhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index\n\nThis current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.\nExhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.\n\nMultiple Contraction\nAdditionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.\nExhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.\n\nIt really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1562,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/823343355"}