Dragon77
2021-08-18
G
Nvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?<blockquote>英伟达：下一只“永不出售”的股票？</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":831812099,"tweetId":"831812099","gmtCreate":1629299739611,"gmtModify":1633685849688,"author":{"id":3584790043361762,"idStr":"3584790043361762","authorId":3584790043361762,"authorIdStr":"3584790043361762","name":"Dragon77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9b0b2898d9b2aece5490fa86fd5bd6f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>G</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>G</p></body></html>","text":"G","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831812099","repostId":1130907862,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130907862","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629263879,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130907862?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 13:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?<blockquote>英伟达：下一只“永不出售”的股票？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130907862","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.While the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.That said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!NVIDIA Corp. reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.NVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands in three ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week (8/18) as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.</li> <li>While the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.</li> <li>That said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!</li> <li>Is this the next \"never sell\" stock?</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38542d6cdbd9dec8054c33389caf105c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Daniel Chetroni/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达将于本周三（8/18）公布财报，该股徘徊在历史高点附近。</li><li>虽然该公司的未来看起来肯定是光明的，但股票定价可能会趋于完美。</li><li>也就是说，如果现在有哪只股票值得高市盈率，那就是英伟达！</li><li>这是下一只“永不出售”的股票吗？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Daniel Chetroni/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达公司（NVDA）本周公布了财报，该股的定价似乎非常完美。</blockquote></p><p> That said...there are certain stocks that you just don't sell!</p><p><blockquote>也就是说……有些股票你就是不卖！</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands (and chips) in three of the biggest growth segments in technology: Gaming, cryptocurrency, and 5G (not to mention its importance in auto/self-driving!).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达当然属于这一类。如果说今天有哪家公司值得获得高市盈率，那肯定是英伟达。该公司涉足技术领域三个最大的增长领域：游戏、加密货币和5G（更不用说它在汽车/自动驾驶领域的重要性了！）.</blockquote></p><p> In fact, it's a stock that you should probably ADD to your position on any meaningful pullback.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，这是一只您可能应该在任何有意义的回调时增加头寸的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Which makes it a great stock for a cash-secured put strategy. Get paid to set a downside limit order on a stock that you want to buy (or add to) on any dips!</p><p><blockquote>这使得它成为现金担保看跌策略的绝佳股票。通过对你想在任何下跌时买入（或增持）的股票设置下跌限价单来获得报酬！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> As we head into earnings this week, let's take a look at valuation.</p><p><blockquote>当我们进入本周的财报时，让我们来看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> High-growth technology companies are always tough to value as they tend to trade at really high (current) multiples based on future growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>高增长科技公司总是很难估值，因为根据未来增长预测，它们的交易价格往往非常高（当前）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488bcf7cabe5578f2e798e2b21b60dc0\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yes, 45.8x forward earnings is a healthy multiple, but if any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA (given the importance of its chips in the major growth areas in technology).</p><p><blockquote>是的，45.8倍的预期市盈率是一个健康的市盈率，但如果今天有哪家公司值得拥有高市盈率，那肯定是英伟达（考虑到其芯片在技术主要增长领域的重要性）。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty!</p><p><blockquote>英伟达的历史销售额和EPS增长图表一直是一件美好的事情！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/961a45a675c7ac09b08b5b755c2d096c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $3.95 per share in fiscal 2022 (129% increase over 2021). However, NVDA expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $4.36 per share (10% growth) and $5.04 per share (16% growth), respectively.<i>Note that NVDA's fiscal year-end is January.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管疫情期间一些销售额肯定有所提前，但该公司预计2022财年每股收益为3.95美元（比2021年增长129%）。然而，NVDA预计2023年和2024年的盈利将进一步增长，分别达到每股4.36美元（增长10%）和每股5.04美元（增长16%）。<i>请注意，NVDA的财政年度结束时间是一月份。</i></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $12.7 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a great return on invested capital of 23.6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表也非常强劲，拥有127亿美元的现金/短期投资，管理层的投资资本回报率高达23.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The \"N\" in FAANG?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>FAANG的“N”？</b></blockquote></p><p> One could argue that NVIDIA should actually replace Netflix (NFLX) as the \"N\" in FAANG.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，英伟达实际上应该取代Netflix(NFLX)成为FAANG中的“N”。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA is currently the 9th largest weighting in the S&P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达目前是标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）第九大权重。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9991ce7ada74056e0662b198cf339154\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And the 8th largest weighting in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).</p><p><blockquote>在纳斯达克100指数(QQQ)中权重排名第八。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f835b261cdbc64458bb82196e5134f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Could NVIDIA also be the next addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (replacing International Business Machines (IBM) at some point)??</p><p><blockquote>英伟达也会成为道琼斯工业平均指数的下一个成员吗（在某个时候取代国际商业机器公司（IBM））？？</blockquote></p><p> All the more reason to not sell any time soon...</p><p><blockquote>更有理由不尽快出售...</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy The Dip! (Through Cash-Secured Puts)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逢低买入！（透过现金抵押看跌期权）</b></blockquote></p><p> Cash-secured puts are a great way to add to your long-term position on a stock that you like.</p><p><blockquote>现金担保看跌期权是增加您喜欢的股票长期头寸的好方法。</blockquote></p><p> From a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p><p><blockquote>从短期角度来看（特别是当它与出售现金担保看跌期权相关时），估计一个好的“罢工区”是我们分析的关键。我们的打击区考虑了(1)股票的波动性，(2)近期表现（即它已经从近期高点回落了多少），(3)近期每股收益风险，以及(4)整体市场波动性（即VIX水平）。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the table below, our strike zone for NVIDIA currently is $149.00-$173.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 13.0%.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，我们目前对NVIDIA的打击区为149.00美元至173.00美元，相当于所需的最低安全边际13.0%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e38091bf0ca8f52b16334659004eef4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA has historically been a volatile stock (42% Implied Volatility), as highlighted by its low Volatility/Risk rating of 4. However, the stock is in a very strong uptrend (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 also has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 13.0%).</p><p><blockquote>NVIDIA历来是一只波动性较大的股票（隐含波动率为42%），其波动性/风险评级为4。然而，该股正处于非常强劲的上升趋势（因此其回调指标2也对最低所需安全边际产生负面影响，目前为13.0%）。</blockquote></p><p> NVDA also reports earnings this week, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA本周还公布了收益，因此我们的期权分析需要关注这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have a few good levels of support to watch:</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，该股仍处于非常强劲的上升趋势，其50日移动平均线（蓝线）高于200日移动平均线（红线）。我们现在有一些良好的支持水平值得关注：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>50-day MA (~$193.00)</li> <li>Low from July 2021 (~$181.50)</li> <li>Breakout level from May 2021 (~$161.00)</li> <li>200-day MA (~$152.50)</li> </ol> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28eb9670c7016d91d063e8e7809de17d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>50天均线（~193.00美元）</li><li>2021年7月以来的低点（约181.50美元）</li><li>2021年5月起的突破水平（~161.00美元）</li><li>200日均线（~152.50美元）</li></ol></blockquote></p><p> There appears to be some decent technical support in our strike zone of $149.00-$173.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put around the strike zone if we can.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的执行区149.00美元至173.00美元似乎有一些不错的技术支持，这显然让我们对在执行区周围出售现金担保看跌期权感觉相对较好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</b></blockquote></p><p> We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们主要交易一种收入策略，看涨期权为三重收入轮，首先是对您希望以较低价格持有的优质股票进行现金担保看跌期权。我们不会在这里详细介绍，但下图很好地总结了该策略。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdd16ba25690201bcb1771ec8a557b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，当我们出售现金担保看跌期权并开始三重收入轮流程时，我们的看跌期权处于该股票的“执行区”。我们认为，这增加了我们长期成功的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li> <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for NVIDIA. We're focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看英伟达的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是21年9月17日到期的8月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f301b2bff52960855c087e8208548dbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-) and Conservative (-C-).<i>Please listen to the video above for further details.</i></p><p><blockquote>我们根据各种风险状况强调了三个级别的交易：激进(-A-)、基础(-B-)和保守(-C-)。<i>更多详情请听上面的视频。</i></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，我们希望坚持基本投资组合的目标水平：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li> <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li> <li>Delta < 30</li> </ul> The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option @ ~$1.81 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 12.3%, and a Delta of 13.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>平均月收益率%(AMY%)：1.0%-1.5%</li><li>处于执行区的执行价格（即高于所需最小值的安全边际）</li><li>δ<30</li></ul>NVDA 9月17日175.00美元看跌期权@约1.81美元符合我们的所有标准，AMY%为1.0%，安全边际为12.3%，Delta为13。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($185.00 strike) or more conservative ($170.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>同样，根据您的风险承受能力，您可以选择比基础交易更激进（185.00美元）或更保守（170.00美元）的执行价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Downside Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Assuming we sold the NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 strike put option @ $1.81, we would collect $181.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of NVDA stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $175.00.</p><p><blockquote>假设我们在9月17日以1.81美元的价格出售了NVDA 175.00美元的执行看跌期权，我们将为出售的每份期权合约收取181.00美元的权利金。作为此溢价的回报，我们同意（并且有义务）以175.00美元的执行价格为每份出售的合约购买100股NVDA股票。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock stays above $175.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.81.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票从现在到到期（9/17/21）保持在175.00美元以上，期权到期时一文不值，我们保留1.81美元的权利金。</blockquote></p><p> However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $175.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $175.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $173.19 ($175.00 - $1.81).</p><p><blockquote>然而，<i>如果股票在到期时（9/17/21）收盘价低于175.00美元，则该交易的下行空间就会发挥作用。由于我们有义务以175.00美元的价格购买股票，因此我们将面临潜在的未实现资本损失（取决于股票到期时的收盘价有多低）</i>无论如何，我们都可以保留溢价，因此我们的盈亏平衡成本基础将是173.19美元（175.00美元-1.81美元）。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, I think it's a win-win at this point if you can add to your NVDA position with a cost basis of $173.19.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为如果您能够以173.19美元的成本基础增加您的NVDA头寸，这是一个双赢的局面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on NVIDIA, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested adding to their position (or starting a new position). The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.0% over the next 31 days) with a margin-of-safety of 12.3%.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对英伟达的长期和短期看法，我们认为现金担保看跌策略目前对于有兴趣增加头寸（或建立新头寸）的投资者来说非常有意义。NVDA 9月17日175.00美元看跌期权的平均月收益率为1.0%（或未来31天为1.0%），安全边际为12.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Assuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could manufacture 12%-plus annualized income from NVIDIA over the next 12 months (while you patiently wait to add to your position).</p><p><blockquote>假设您可以继续以类似的风险/回报参数每45-60天滚动该头寸，那么您可以在未来12个月内从NVIDIA获得12%以上的年化收入（同时您耐心等待增加头寸）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?<blockquote>英伟达：下一只“永不出售”的股票？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?<blockquote>英伟达：下一只“永不出售”的股票？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week (8/18) as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.</li> <li>While the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.</li> <li>That said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!</li> <li>Is this the next \"never sell\" stock?</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38542d6cdbd9dec8054c33389caf105c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Daniel Chetroni/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达将于本周三（8/18）公布财报，该股徘徊在历史高点附近。</li><li>虽然该公司的未来看起来肯定是光明的，但股票定价可能会趋于完美。</li><li>也就是说，如果现在有哪只股票值得高市盈率，那就是英伟达！</li><li>这是下一只“永不出售”的股票吗？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Daniel Chetroni/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达公司（NVDA）本周公布了财报，该股的定价似乎非常完美。</blockquote></p><p> That said...there are certain stocks that you just don't sell!</p><p><blockquote>也就是说……有些股票你就是不卖！</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands (and chips) in three of the biggest growth segments in technology: Gaming, cryptocurrency, and 5G (not to mention its importance in auto/self-driving!).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达当然属于这一类。如果说今天有哪家公司值得获得高市盈率，那肯定是英伟达。该公司涉足技术领域三个最大的增长领域：游戏、加密货币和5G（更不用说它在汽车/自动驾驶领域的重要性了！）.</blockquote></p><p> In fact, it's a stock that you should probably ADD to your position on any meaningful pullback.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，这是一只您可能应该在任何有意义的回调时增加头寸的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Which makes it a great stock for a cash-secured put strategy. Get paid to set a downside limit order on a stock that you want to buy (or add to) on any dips!</p><p><blockquote>这使得它成为现金担保看跌策略的绝佳股票。通过对你想在任何下跌时买入（或增持）的股票设置下跌限价单来获得报酬！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> As we head into earnings this week, let's take a look at valuation.</p><p><blockquote>当我们进入本周的财报时，让我们来看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> High-growth technology companies are always tough to value as they tend to trade at really high (current) multiples based on future growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>高增长科技公司总是很难估值，因为根据未来增长预测，它们的交易价格往往非常高（当前）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488bcf7cabe5578f2e798e2b21b60dc0\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yes, 45.8x forward earnings is a healthy multiple, but if any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA (given the importance of its chips in the major growth areas in technology).</p><p><blockquote>是的，45.8倍的预期市盈率是一个健康的市盈率，但如果今天有哪家公司值得拥有高市盈率，那肯定是英伟达（考虑到其芯片在技术主要增长领域的重要性）。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty!</p><p><blockquote>英伟达的历史销售额和EPS增长图表一直是一件美好的事情！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/961a45a675c7ac09b08b5b755c2d096c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $3.95 per share in fiscal 2022 (129% increase over 2021). However, NVDA expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $4.36 per share (10% growth) and $5.04 per share (16% growth), respectively.<i>Note that NVDA's fiscal year-end is January.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管疫情期间一些销售额肯定有所提前，但该公司预计2022财年每股收益为3.95美元（比2021年增长129%）。然而，NVDA预计2023年和2024年的盈利将进一步增长，分别达到每股4.36美元（增长10%）和每股5.04美元（增长16%）。<i>请注意，NVDA的财政年度结束时间是一月份。</i></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $12.7 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a great return on invested capital of 23.6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表也非常强劲，拥有127亿美元的现金/短期投资，管理层的投资资本回报率高达23.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The \"N\" in FAANG?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>FAANG的“N”？</b></blockquote></p><p> One could argue that NVIDIA should actually replace Netflix (NFLX) as the \"N\" in FAANG.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，英伟达实际上应该取代Netflix(NFLX)成为FAANG中的“N”。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA is currently the 9th largest weighting in the S&P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达目前是标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）第九大权重。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9991ce7ada74056e0662b198cf339154\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And the 8th largest weighting in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).</p><p><blockquote>在纳斯达克100指数(QQQ)中权重排名第八。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f835b261cdbc64458bb82196e5134f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Could NVIDIA also be the next addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (replacing International Business Machines (IBM) at some point)??</p><p><blockquote>英伟达也会成为道琼斯工业平均指数的下一个成员吗（在某个时候取代国际商业机器公司（IBM））？？</blockquote></p><p> All the more reason to not sell any time soon...</p><p><blockquote>更有理由不尽快出售...</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy The Dip! (Through Cash-Secured Puts)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逢低买入！（透过现金抵押看跌期权）</b></blockquote></p><p> Cash-secured puts are a great way to add to your long-term position on a stock that you like.</p><p><blockquote>现金担保看跌期权是增加您喜欢的股票长期头寸的好方法。</blockquote></p><p> From a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p><p><blockquote>从短期角度来看（特别是当它与出售现金担保看跌期权相关时），估计一个好的“罢工区”是我们分析的关键。我们的打击区考虑了(1)股票的波动性，(2)近期表现（即它已经从近期高点回落了多少），(3)近期每股收益风险，以及(4)整体市场波动性（即VIX水平）。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the table below, our strike zone for NVIDIA currently is $149.00-$173.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 13.0%.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，我们目前对NVIDIA的打击区为149.00美元至173.00美元，相当于所需的最低安全边际13.0%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e38091bf0ca8f52b16334659004eef4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA has historically been a volatile stock (42% Implied Volatility), as highlighted by its low Volatility/Risk rating of 4. However, the stock is in a very strong uptrend (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 also has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 13.0%).</p><p><blockquote>NVIDIA历来是一只波动性较大的股票（隐含波动率为42%），其波动性/风险评级为4。然而，该股正处于非常强劲的上升趋势（因此其回调指标2也对最低所需安全边际产生负面影响，目前为13.0%）。</blockquote></p><p> NVDA also reports earnings this week, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA本周还公布了收益，因此我们的期权分析需要关注这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have a few good levels of support to watch:</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，该股仍处于非常强劲的上升趋势，其50日移动平均线（蓝线）高于200日移动平均线（红线）。我们现在有一些良好的支持水平值得关注：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>50-day MA (~$193.00)</li> <li>Low from July 2021 (~$181.50)</li> <li>Breakout level from May 2021 (~$161.00)</li> <li>200-day MA (~$152.50)</li> </ol> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28eb9670c7016d91d063e8e7809de17d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>50天均线（~193.00美元）</li><li>2021年7月以来的低点（约181.50美元）</li><li>2021年5月起的突破水平（~161.00美元）</li><li>200日均线（~152.50美元）</li></ol></blockquote></p><p> There appears to be some decent technical support in our strike zone of $149.00-$173.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put around the strike zone if we can.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的执行区149.00美元至173.00美元似乎有一些不错的技术支持，这显然让我们对在执行区周围出售现金担保看跌期权感觉相对较好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</b></blockquote></p><p> We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们主要交易一种收入策略，看涨期权为三重收入轮，首先是对您希望以较低价格持有的优质股票进行现金担保看跌期权。我们不会在这里详细介绍，但下图很好地总结了该策略。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdd16ba25690201bcb1771ec8a557b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，当我们出售现金担保看跌期权并开始三重收入轮流程时，我们的看跌期权处于该股票的“执行区”。我们认为，这增加了我们长期成功的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li> <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for NVIDIA. We're focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看英伟达的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是21年9月17日到期的8月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f301b2bff52960855c087e8208548dbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-) and Conservative (-C-).<i>Please listen to the video above for further details.</i></p><p><blockquote>我们根据各种风险状况强调了三个级别的交易：激进(-A-)、基础(-B-)和保守(-C-)。<i>更多详情请听上面的视频。</i></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，我们希望坚持基本投资组合的目标水平：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li> <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li> <li>Delta < 30</li> </ul> The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option @ ~$1.81 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 12.3%, and a Delta of 13.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>平均月收益率%(AMY%)：1.0%-1.5%</li><li>处于执行区的执行价格（即高于所需最小值的安全边际）</li><li>δ<30</li></ul>NVDA 9月17日175.00美元看跌期权@约1.81美元符合我们的所有标准，AMY%为1.0%，安全边际为12.3%，Delta为13。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($185.00 strike) or more conservative ($170.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>同样，根据您的风险承受能力，您可以选择比基础交易更激进（185.00美元）或更保守（170.00美元）的执行价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Downside Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Assuming we sold the NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 strike put option @ $1.81, we would collect $181.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of NVDA stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $175.00.</p><p><blockquote>假设我们在9月17日以1.81美元的价格出售了NVDA 175.00美元的执行看跌期权，我们将为出售的每份期权合约收取181.00美元的权利金。作为此溢价的回报，我们同意（并且有义务）以175.00美元的执行价格为每份出售的合约购买100股NVDA股票。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock stays above $175.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.81.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票从现在到到期（9/17/21）保持在175.00美元以上，期权到期时一文不值，我们保留1.81美元的权利金。</blockquote></p><p> However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $175.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $175.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $173.19 ($175.00 - $1.81).</p><p><blockquote>然而，<i>如果股票在到期时（9/17/21）收盘价低于175.00美元，则该交易的下行空间就会发挥作用。由于我们有义务以175.00美元的价格购买股票，因此我们将面临潜在的未实现资本损失（取决于股票到期时的收盘价有多低）</i>无论如何，我们都可以保留溢价，因此我们的盈亏平衡成本基础将是173.19美元（175.00美元-1.81美元）。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, I think it's a win-win at this point if you can add to your NVDA position with a cost basis of $173.19.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为如果您能够以173.19美元的成本基础增加您的NVDA头寸，这是一个双赢的局面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on NVIDIA, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested adding to their position (or starting a new position). The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.0% over the next 31 days) with a margin-of-safety of 12.3%.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对英伟达的长期和短期看法，我们认为现金担保看跌策略目前对于有兴趣增加头寸（或建立新头寸）的投资者来说非常有意义。NVDA 9月17日175.00美元看跌期权的平均月收益率为1.0%（或未来31天为1.0%），安全边际为12.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Assuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could manufacture 12%-plus annualized income from NVIDIA over the next 12 months (while you patiently wait to add to your position).</p><p><blockquote>假设您可以继续以类似的风险/回报参数每45-60天滚动该头寸，那么您可以在未来12个月内从NVIDIA获得12%以上的年化收入（同时您耐心等待增加头寸）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450207-nvidia-the-next-never-sell-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450207-nvidia-the-next-never-sell-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130907862","content_text":"Summary\n\nNVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week (8/18) as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.\nWhile the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.\nThat said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!\nIs this the next \"never sell\" stock?\n\nDaniel Chetroni/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nNVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.\nThat said...there are certain stocks that you just don't sell!\nNVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands (and chips) in three of the biggest growth segments in technology: Gaming, cryptocurrency, and 5G (not to mention its importance in auto/self-driving!).\nIn fact, it's a stock that you should probably ADD to your position on any meaningful pullback.\nWhich makes it a great stock for a cash-secured put strategy. Get paid to set a downside limit order on a stock that you want to buy (or add to) on any dips!\nValuation\nAs we head into earnings this week, let's take a look at valuation.\nHigh-growth technology companies are always tough to value as they tend to trade at really high (current) multiples based on future growth projections.\n\nYes, 45.8x forward earnings is a healthy multiple, but if any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA (given the importance of its chips in the major growth areas in technology).\nNVIDIA's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty!\n\nAlthough some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $3.95 per share in fiscal 2022 (129% increase over 2021). However, NVDA expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $4.36 per share (10% growth) and $5.04 per share (16% growth), respectively.Note that NVDA's fiscal year-end is January.\nThe company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $12.7 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a great return on invested capital of 23.6%.\nThe \"N\" in FAANG?\nOne could argue that NVIDIA should actually replace Netflix (NFLX) as the \"N\" in FAANG.\nNVIDIA is currently the 9th largest weighting in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nSource: YCharts\nAnd the 8th largest weighting in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).\nSource: YCharts\nCould NVIDIA also be the next addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (replacing International Business Machines (IBM) at some point)??\nAll the more reason to not sell any time soon...\nBuy The Dip! (Through Cash-Secured Puts)\nCash-secured puts are a great way to add to your long-term position on a stock that you like.\nFrom a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).\nAs shown in the table below, our strike zone for NVIDIA currently is $149.00-$173.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 13.0%.\n(Source: Option income Advisor)\nNVIDIA has historically been a volatile stock (42% Implied Volatility), as highlighted by its low Volatility/Risk rating of 4. However, the stock is in a very strong uptrend (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 also has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 13.0%).\nNVDA also reports earnings this week, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.\nAs shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have a few good levels of support to watch:\n\n50-day MA (~$193.00)\nLow from July 2021 (~$181.50)\nBreakout level from May 2021 (~$161.00)\n200-day MA (~$152.50)\n\n\nThere appears to be some decent technical support in our strike zone of $149.00-$173.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put around the strike zone if we can.\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nWe primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.\n\nIdeally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nNote that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for NVIDIA. We're focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.\n(Source: Option Income Advisor)\nWe have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-) and Conservative (-C-).Please listen to the video above for further details.\nIdeally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:\n\nAverage Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%\nStrike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)\nDelta < 30\n\nThe NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option @ ~$1.81 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 12.3%, and a Delta of 13.\nAgain, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($185.00 strike) or more conservative ($170.00 strike) than the base trade.\nDownside Considerations\nAssuming we sold the NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 strike put option @ $1.81, we would collect $181.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of NVDA stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $175.00.\nIf the stock stays above $175.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.81.\nHowever,the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $175.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $175.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration). We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $173.19 ($175.00 - $1.81).\nAll that said, I think it's a win-win at this point if you can add to your NVDA position with a cost basis of $173.19.\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on NVIDIA, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested adding to their position (or starting a new position). The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.0% over the next 31 days) with a margin-of-safety of 12.3%.\nAssuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could manufacture 12%-plus annualized income from NVIDIA over the next 12 months (while you patiently wait to add to your position).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2339,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/831812099"}
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