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2021-08-17
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The Chip Shortage Could Last Years. It Isn’t All Bad for Auto Stocks.<blockquote>芯片短缺可能会持续数年。这对汽车股来说并不全是坏事。</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":839499051,"tweetId":"839499051","gmtCreate":1629171049273,"gmtModify":1633686839352,"author":{"id":3568948415316733,"idStr":"3568948415316733","authorId":3568948415316733,"authorIdStr":"3568948415316733","name":"Narayanan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c8ad986932bbfda0ed07033a264bd0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":18,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like</p></body></html>","text":"Like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839499051","repostId":1176063500,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176063500","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170268,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176063500?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Chip Shortage Could Last Years. It Isn’t All Bad for Auto Stocks.<blockquote>芯片短缺可能会持续数年。这对汽车股来说并不全是坏事。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176063500","media":"Barrons","summary":"The automotive-semiconductor shortage is constraining global car production, leading to low inventor","content":"<p>The automotive-semiconductor shortage is constraining global car production, leading to low inventories and high prices for new and used vehicles. It could last for years. That isn’t all bad for car stocks, however. Still, it’s better to sell cars when consumers want them, instead of hoping that demand for new vehicles will remain when the chip shortage is eventually resolved.</p><p><blockquote>汽车半导体短缺限制了全球汽车生产，导致新车和二手车库存低、价格高。它可能会持续数年。不过，这对汽车股来说并不全是坏事。尽管如此，最好还是在消费者需要的时候卖车，而不是寄希望于芯片短缺问题最终解决后，对新车的需求依然存在。</blockquote></p><p> The chip shortage is a result of many factors. For starters, car companies stopped ordering supplies at the onset of the pandemic. Cash conservation was of paramount importance as demand dried up. Consumer-electronics companies didn’t react as severely, and when car demand came back stronger than expected, the capacity for chips just wasn’t there.</p><p><blockquote>芯片短缺是多种因素共同作用的结果。首先，汽车公司在疫情爆发时就停止订购物资。随着需求枯竭，现金节约变得至关重要。消费电子公司的反应并不那么激烈，当汽车需求强于预期时，芯片的产能就不存在了。</blockquote></p><p> Acts of God didn’t help either. Afire at a chip plant in Japan limited production. So did the cold weather snap in Texas. Now Covid is hurting production again in Malaysia.</p><p><blockquote>上帝的行为也无济于事。日本一家芯片工厂发生火灾，产量有限。德克萨斯的寒冷天气snap也是如此。现在Covid再次损害了马来西亚的生产。</blockquote></p><p> “Many, if not all, of these factors would appear to be transient,” writes RBC analyst Joe Spak in a Sunday research report. “There could be structural reasons why semi capacity may limit automotive production over the coming years.” Chips might be in short supply for a long time. He cites a couple of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>“加拿大皇家银行分析师乔-斯帕克（Joe Spak）在周日的一份研究报告中写道：”这些因素中的许多（如果不是全部）似乎都是短暂的。“未来几年，半产能可能会限制汽车产量，这可能有结构性原因”。芯片可能会长期供不应求。他列举了几个原因。</blockquote></p><p> First is electric vehicles. EVs require more semiconductor technology, writes Spak. Managing power from batteries along with charging curves are all, essentially, computing problems. Autonomous-driving features increasingly common on cars also require lots of computing power.</p><p><blockquote>首先是电动汽车。Spak 写道，电动汽车需要更多的半导体技术。管理电池的功率以及充电曲线本质上都是计算问题。汽车上越来越普遍的自动驾驶功能也需要大量的计算能力。</blockquote></p><p> Next is what Spak calls “automotive inflexibility.” Automotive chips tend to be older, more-proven technology. The car business prioritizes reliability. But chip companies don’t like investing in older tech.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是评级所说的 “汽车的不灵活性”。汽车芯片往往是更古老、更成熟的技术。汽车行业优先考虑可靠性。但芯片公司不喜欢投资老技术。</blockquote></p><p> Another factor mentioned tangentially by Spak: the consumer-electronics industry isn’t going to shrink. It will demand more and more chips in the future.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 间接提到的另一个因素是： 消费电子行业不会萎缩。未来它将需要越来越多的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> One fix is for car companies to adopt new technology, but that will take time. He says that could benefit Aptiv(ticker: APTV)—a parts supplier that manages electrical architecture in vehicles. He rates the stock at Buy and has a $188 price target.</p><p><blockquote>一个解决办法是汽车公司采用新技术，但这需要时间。他表示，这可能会使安波福（股票代码：APTV）受益，安波福是一家管理车辆电气架构的零部件供应商。他将该股评级为买入，目标价为 188 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Spak says global light-vehicle production could be limited to about 90 million cars a year for the foreseeable future—regardless of what vehicle demand turns out to be. That’s flat with average production from recent, pre-pandemic years. That means new vehicle inventories will be lower for longer. That isn’t all bad for the industry, though. That would mean better pricing for auto makers. Car companies would also build the nicest cars. The chip shortage has been good for vehicle mix.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 表示，在可预见的未来，无论汽车需求如何，全球轻型汽车产量都可能限制在每年约 9000 万辆。这与大流行前近几年的平均产量持平。这意味着新车库存将在更长时间内保持较低水平。不过，这对该行业来说并不全是坏事。这意味着汽车制造商将获得更好的定价。汽车公司也会制造最好的汽车。芯片短缺对车辆组合有利。</blockquote></p><p> Car stocks are still doing well, despite the shortage. The mix and pricing benefits have far outweighed any negatives so far.Ford Motor(F) stock is up 53% year to date, better than the 18% and 16% comparable, respective returns of the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>尽管短缺，汽车股仍然表现良好。迄今为止，这种组合和定价优势远远超过了任何负面影响。福特汽车 (F) 股票今年迄今已上涨 53%，优于标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别 18% 和 16% 的可比回报率。</blockquote></p><p> General Motors(GM) stock is up 27% year to date. Still, GM stock is down almost 9% since the company gave disappointing earnings guidance for the second half of 2021 on its Aug. 4 earnings conference call. There are a few reasons for weaker-than-expected guidance, but the chip shortage is one of them.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车 (GM) 股价今年迄今已上涨 27%。尽管如此，自该公司在 8 月 4 日的财报电话会议上给出令人失望的 2021 年下半年盈利指引以来，通用汽车股价已下跌近 9%。指引弱于预期有几个原因，但芯片短缺是其中之一。</blockquote></p><p> The industry might benefit from low inventories, but investors still have to deal with volatility from the chip situation.</p><p><blockquote>该行业可能会受益于低库存，但投资者仍需应对芯片形势带来的波动。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest risk for the auto industry might be that car demand could dry up before the chip situation is resolved. Then the cars consumers want to buy today might never be sold.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业面临的最大风险可能是，在芯片问题解决之前，汽车需求可能会枯竭。那么消费者今天想买的汽车可能永远卖不出去。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Chip Shortage Could Last Years. It Isn’t All Bad for Auto Stocks.<blockquote>芯片短缺可能会持续数年。这对汽车股来说并不全是坏事。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Chip Shortage Could Last Years. It Isn’t All Bad for Auto Stocks.<blockquote>芯片短缺可能会持续数年。这对汽车股来说并不全是坏事。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The automotive-semiconductor shortage is constraining global car production, leading to low inventories and high prices for new and used vehicles. It could last for years. That isn’t all bad for car stocks, however. Still, it’s better to sell cars when consumers want them, instead of hoping that demand for new vehicles will remain when the chip shortage is eventually resolved.</p><p><blockquote>汽车半导体短缺限制了全球汽车生产，导致新车和二手车库存低、价格高。它可能会持续数年。不过，这对汽车股来说并不全是坏事。尽管如此，最好还是在消费者需要的时候卖车，而不是寄希望于芯片短缺问题最终解决后，对新车的需求依然存在。</blockquote></p><p> The chip shortage is a result of many factors. For starters, car companies stopped ordering supplies at the onset of the pandemic. Cash conservation was of paramount importance as demand dried up. Consumer-electronics companies didn’t react as severely, and when car demand came back stronger than expected, the capacity for chips just wasn’t there.</p><p><blockquote>芯片短缺是多种因素共同作用的结果。首先，汽车公司在疫情爆发时就停止订购物资。随着需求枯竭，现金节约变得至关重要。消费电子公司的反应并不那么激烈，当汽车需求强于预期时，芯片的产能就不存在了。</blockquote></p><p> Acts of God didn’t help either. Afire at a chip plant in Japan limited production. So did the cold weather snap in Texas. Now Covid is hurting production again in Malaysia.</p><p><blockquote>上帝的行为也无济于事。日本一家芯片工厂发生火灾，产量有限。德克萨斯的寒冷天气snap也是如此。现在Covid再次损害了马来西亚的生产。</blockquote></p><p> “Many, if not all, of these factors would appear to be transient,” writes RBC analyst Joe Spak in a Sunday research report. “There could be structural reasons why semi capacity may limit automotive production over the coming years.” Chips might be in short supply for a long time. He cites a couple of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>“加拿大皇家银行分析师乔-斯帕克（Joe Spak）在周日的一份研究报告中写道：”这些因素中的许多（如果不是全部）似乎都是短暂的。“未来几年，半产能可能会限制汽车产量，这可能有结构性原因”。芯片可能会长期供不应求。他列举了几个原因。</blockquote></p><p> First is electric vehicles. EVs require more semiconductor technology, writes Spak. Managing power from batteries along with charging curves are all, essentially, computing problems. Autonomous-driving features increasingly common on cars also require lots of computing power.</p><p><blockquote>首先是电动汽车。Spak 写道，电动汽车需要更多的半导体技术。管理电池的功率以及充电曲线本质上都是计算问题。汽车上越来越普遍的自动驾驶功能也需要大量的计算能力。</blockquote></p><p> Next is what Spak calls “automotive inflexibility.” Automotive chips tend to be older, more-proven technology. The car business prioritizes reliability. But chip companies don’t like investing in older tech.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是评级所说的 “汽车的不灵活性”。汽车芯片往往是更古老、更成熟的技术。汽车行业优先考虑可靠性。但芯片公司不喜欢投资老技术。</blockquote></p><p> Another factor mentioned tangentially by Spak: the consumer-electronics industry isn’t going to shrink. It will demand more and more chips in the future.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 间接提到的另一个因素是： 消费电子行业不会萎缩。未来它将需要越来越多的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> One fix is for car companies to adopt new technology, but that will take time. He says that could benefit Aptiv(ticker: APTV)—a parts supplier that manages electrical architecture in vehicles. He rates the stock at Buy and has a $188 price target.</p><p><blockquote>一个解决办法是汽车公司采用新技术，但这需要时间。他表示，这可能会使安波福（股票代码：APTV）受益，安波福是一家管理车辆电气架构的零部件供应商。他将该股评级为买入，目标价为 188 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Spak says global light-vehicle production could be limited to about 90 million cars a year for the foreseeable future—regardless of what vehicle demand turns out to be. That’s flat with average production from recent, pre-pandemic years. That means new vehicle inventories will be lower for longer. That isn’t all bad for the industry, though. That would mean better pricing for auto makers. Car companies would also build the nicest cars. The chip shortage has been good for vehicle mix.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 表示，在可预见的未来，无论汽车需求如何，全球轻型汽车产量都可能限制在每年约 9000 万辆。这与大流行前近几年的平均产量持平。这意味着新车库存将在更长时间内保持较低水平。不过，这对该行业来说并不全是坏事。这意味着汽车制造商将获得更好的定价。汽车公司也会制造最好的汽车。芯片短缺对车辆组合有利。</blockquote></p><p> Car stocks are still doing well, despite the shortage. The mix and pricing benefits have far outweighed any negatives so far.Ford Motor(F) stock is up 53% year to date, better than the 18% and 16% comparable, respective returns of the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>尽管短缺，汽车股仍然表现良好。迄今为止，这种组合和定价优势远远超过了任何负面影响。福特汽车 (F) 股票今年迄今已上涨 53%，优于标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别 18% 和 16% 的可比回报率。</blockquote></p><p> General Motors(GM) stock is up 27% year to date. Still, GM stock is down almost 9% since the company gave disappointing earnings guidance for the second half of 2021 on its Aug. 4 earnings conference call. There are a few reasons for weaker-than-expected guidance, but the chip shortage is one of them.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车 (GM) 股价今年迄今已上涨 27%。尽管如此，自该公司在 8 月 4 日的财报电话会议上给出令人失望的 2021 年下半年盈利指引以来，通用汽车股价已下跌近 9%。指引弱于预期有几个原因，但芯片短缺是其中之一。</blockquote></p><p> The industry might benefit from low inventories, but investors still have to deal with volatility from the chip situation.</p><p><blockquote>该行业可能会受益于低库存，但投资者仍需应对芯片形势带来的波动。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest risk for the auto industry might be that car demand could dry up before the chip situation is resolved. Then the cars consumers want to buy today might never be sold.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业面临的最大风险可能是，在芯片问题解决之前，汽车需求可能会枯竭。那么消费者今天想买的汽车可能永远卖不出去。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/chip-shortage-auto-stocks-51629133890?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APTV":"Aptiv PLC","F":"福特汽车","GM":"通用汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/chip-shortage-auto-stocks-51629133890?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176063500","content_text":"The automotive-semiconductor shortage is constraining global car production, leading to low inventories and high prices for new and used vehicles. It could last for years. That isn’t all bad for car stocks, however. Still, it’s better to sell cars when consumers want them, instead of hoping that demand for new vehicles will remain when the chip shortage is eventually resolved.\nThe chip shortage is a result of many factors. For starters, car companies stopped ordering supplies at the onset of the pandemic. Cash conservation was of paramount importance as demand dried up. Consumer-electronics companies didn’t react as severely, and when car demand came back stronger than expected, the capacity for chips just wasn’t there.\nActs of God didn’t help either. Afire at a chip plant in Japan limited production. So did the cold weather snap in Texas. Now Covid is hurting production again in Malaysia.\n“Many, if not all, of these factors would appear to be transient,” writes RBC analyst Joe Spak in a Sunday research report. “There could be structural reasons why semi capacity may limit automotive production over the coming years.” Chips might be in short supply for a long time. He cites a couple of reasons.\nFirst is electric vehicles. EVs require more semiconductor technology, writes Spak. Managing power from batteries along with charging curves are all, essentially, computing problems. Autonomous-driving features increasingly common on cars also require lots of computing power.\nNext is what Spak calls “automotive inflexibility.” Automotive chips tend to be older, more-proven technology. The car business prioritizes reliability. But chip companies don’t like investing in older tech.\nAnother factor mentioned tangentially by Spak: the consumer-electronics industry isn’t going to shrink. It will demand more and more chips in the future.\nOne fix is for car companies to adopt new technology, but that will take time. He says that could benefit Aptiv(ticker: APTV)—a parts supplier that manages electrical architecture in vehicles. He rates the stock at Buy and has a $188 price target.\nSpak says global light-vehicle production could be limited to about 90 million cars a year for the foreseeable future—regardless of what vehicle demand turns out to be. That’s flat with average production from recent, pre-pandemic years. That means new vehicle inventories will be lower for longer. That isn’t all bad for the industry, though. That would mean better pricing for auto makers. Car companies would also build the nicest cars. The chip shortage has been good for vehicle mix.\nCar stocks are still doing well, despite the shortage. The mix and pricing benefits have far outweighed any negatives so far.Ford Motor(F) stock is up 53% year to date, better than the 18% and 16% comparable, respective returns of the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nGeneral Motors(GM) stock is up 27% year to date. Still, GM stock is down almost 9% since the company gave disappointing earnings guidance for the second half of 2021 on its Aug. 4 earnings conference call. There are a few reasons for weaker-than-expected guidance, but the chip shortage is one of them.\nThe industry might benefit from low inventories, but investors still have to deal with volatility from the chip situation.\nThe biggest risk for the auto industry might be that car demand could dry up before the chip situation is resolved. Then the cars consumers want to buy today might never be sold.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"GM":0.9,"APTV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1800,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/839499051"}
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