Gladys80
2021-11-03
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Apple Stock: How Does Transition Away From Intel Chips Impact Business Outlook?<blockquote>苹果股票：放弃英特尔芯片如何影响商业前景？</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":841755008,"tweetId":"841755008","gmtCreate":1635945436397,"gmtModify":1635945436567,"author":{"id":4087907126409640,"idStr":"4087907126409640","authorId":4087907126409640,"authorIdStr":"4087907126409640","name":"Gladys80","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>👍</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>👍</p></body></html>","text":"👍","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841755008","repostId":1125884187,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125884187","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635944999,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125884187?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 21:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How Does Transition Away From Intel Chips Impact Business Outlook?<blockquote>苹果股票：放弃英特尔芯片如何影响商业前景？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125884187","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple's new chips, the M1 Pro and the M1 Max, are very powerful and energy-efficient at the","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple's new chips, the M1 Pro and the M1 Max, are very powerful and energy-efficient at the same time.</li> <li>Getting rid of Intel and taking control of the chips it uses fits well with Apple's strategy, and its products will become more attractive.</li> <li>Overall, Apple still doesn't look like a great buy today, mainly due to a too-high valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03a6d9440c644482577c587ef65ade11\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>David Paul Morris/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果的新芯片M1 Pro和M1 Max非常强大，同时也非常节能。</li><li>摆脱英特尔并控制其使用的芯片，非常符合苹果的战略，其产品将变得更具吸引力。</li><li>总体而言，苹果今天看起来仍然不太值得购买，主要是因为估值过高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大卫·保罗·莫里斯/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)has been increasing its focus on developing and using its own silicon for its laptops. Thanks to strong performance metrics and excellent power/performance ratios, these new chips, such as the M1 Pro and the M1 Max should help improve the value proposition of Apple's MacBooks, which could lead to higher market share. MacBooks aren't Apple's most important product by far, but over the years, moving away from Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)should still be an incremental positive for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）一直越来越关注为其笔记本电脑开发和使用自己的芯片。由于强大的性能指标和出色的功率/性能比，这些新芯片，如M1 Pro和M1 Max，应该有助于提高苹果MacBook的价值主张，这可能会导致更高的市场份额。到目前为止，MacBook 还不是苹果最重要的产品，但多年来，摆脱英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）对苹果来说仍然是一个渐进的积极因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Did Apple Use Intel Chips?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果用的是英特尔芯片吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Macs had been using Intel processors for 15 years, but that has changed with recent new Mac and MacBook releases. In 2020, Apple has showcased laptops and a Mac that use its own chip, the M1, for the first time, ending the partnership with Intel that had been running for well over a decade. Intel's chips had been using the X86 technology, whereas the chips that Apple develops utilize the ARM architecture -- the one that it also had been using for its iPhone and iPad chips for a long period of time. In the past, ARM-based chips had not been powerful enough for the more demanding applications and use cases that play a role for PCs. Apple has now, however, closed that performance gap, which allows them to use its own ARM-based silicon to power its Macs and MacBooks in the future.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的Mac电脑已经使用英特尔处理器15年了，但随着最近新的Mac和MacBook的发布，这种情况发生了变化。2020年，苹果首次展示了使用自己芯片M1的笔记本电脑和Mac，结束了与英特尔长达十多年的合作关系。英特尔的芯片一直使用X86技术，而苹果开发的芯片使用ARM架构——它也在其iPhone和iPad芯片中使用了很长一段时间。在过去，基于ARM的芯片对于在PC中发挥作用的要求更高的应用和用例来说还不够强大。然而，苹果现在已经缩小了这一性能差距，这使得他们能够在未来使用自己的基于ARM的芯片为其Mac和MacBook提供动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Are Apple's Newest Chips?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果最新的芯片有哪些？</b></blockquote></p><p> In the laptop and PC space, Apple's newest chips are the M1 Pro and M1 Max, following up on last year's M1 chip. These new chips are being offered in the MacBook Pro and,presumably, in the 2022 MacBook Pro. These chips do, according to Apple, provide an unprecedented performance relative to the power they consume:</p><p><blockquote>在笔记本电脑和个人电脑领域，苹果最新的芯片是M1 Pro和M1 Max，是去年M1芯片的后续产品。这些新芯片将在MacBook Pro中提供，大概也将在2022年的MacBook Pro中提供。根据苹果的说法，这些芯片确实提供了相对于其消耗的功率而言前所未有的性能：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea5c5be296a3e4ee0ca481937b02087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With up to 10 CPU cores, up to 32 GPU cores, and up to 64 GB of shared RAM, Apple's newest chips offer outstanding performance. As we can see in the above chart, this performance is achieved at considerably lower power consumption relative to current chips by competitors. This is especially important when it comes to Apple's MacBooks, as power consumption is highly important for laptops. Not only does lower power consumption lead to lower operating costs, but the laptop can also be constructed with lower battery capacity, all else equal, which translates into an improved form factor and lower weight. This, in turn, will make the new laptops more user-friendly, which should attract more buyers and help Apple expand its market share.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的最新芯片拥有多达10个CPU核心、多达32个GPU核心和多达64 GB的共享RAM，性能卓越。正如我们在上图中看到的，相对于竞争对手的当前芯片，这种性能是在相当低的功耗下实现的。对于苹果的MacBook来说，这一点尤为重要，因为功耗对于笔记本电脑来说非常重要。更低的功耗不仅导致更低的运营成本，而且在其他条件相同的情况下，笔记本电脑还可以用更低的电池容量来构建，这转化为改进的外形和更低的重量。这反过来将使新笔记本电脑更加用户友好，这应该会吸引更多的买家，并帮助苹果扩大其市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Is Apple Transitioning Away From Intel Chips?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么苹果要放弃英特尔芯片？</b></blockquote></p><p> There are several reasons for Apple's decision to move away from Intel and to develop its own chips for its laptops and PCs. First, this move gives Apple more control over core technologies and makes the company less dependent on suppliers. If Apple wants to make changes to its chips it can easily do that and put the engineering focus where it sees the biggest potential gains or benefits. While Apple was using Intel's chips, it was dependent on smart R&D by Intel, and thus not in control. This fits well with Apple's strategy that is sometimes called the <i>Tim Cook Doctrine</i>. The CEO has explained that Apple has a <i>“long-term strategy of owning and controlling the primary technologies behind the products that we make.”</i>Getting more control over the chips it uses in laptops and PCs is just a relatively logical step for a company that seeks to increase its ownership in key technologies for its products in order to become more dominant and less dependent on suppliers over time.</p><p><blockquote>苹果决定摆脱英特尔，为其笔记本电脑和个人电脑开发自己的芯片有几个原因。首先，此举让苹果对核心技术有了更多的控制权，并使该公司对供应商的依赖减少。如果苹果想对其芯片进行改变，它可以很容易地做到这一点，并将工程重点放在它看到最大潜在收益或好处的地方。虽然苹果使用英特尔的芯片，但它依赖于英特尔的智能研发，因此无法控制。这与苹果的战略非常吻合，有时被称为<i>蒂姆·库克主义</i>首席执行官解释说，苹果有一个<i>“拥有和控制我们所生产产品背后的核心技术的长期战略”。</i>对于一家寻求增加其产品关键技术所有权的公司来说，获得对笔记本电脑和个人电脑中使用的芯片的更多控制权只是一个相对合乎逻辑的步骤，以便随着时间的推移变得更具主导地位，减少对供应商的依赖。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, technological progress has allowed ARM chips to increase their performance relative to X86 chips over the last couple of years. Due to the better efficiency of these chips and the huge benefits this efficiency guarantees in the notebook space, it is logical for Apple to pursue ARM-based chips instead of Intel's X86 architecture as this allows Apple to craft a better overall product.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，技术进步使得ARM芯片在过去几年中相对于X86芯片提高了性能。由于这些芯片的更好效率以及这种效率在笔记本电脑领域保证的巨大好处，苹果追求基于ARM的芯片而不是英特尔的X86架构是合乎逻辑的，因为这使得苹果能够打造更好的整体产品。</blockquote></p><p> In short, there are thus both strategic reasons for Apple to move away from Intel, while there are also technical reasons that make ARM-based chips look favorable relative to what Apple was able to buy from Intel.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，因此苹果放弃英特尔既有战略原因，也有技术原因使得基于ARM的芯片相对于苹果能够从英特尔购买的芯片看起来更有利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> With the introduction of the most recent high-powered and highly efficient chips, Apple should be able to strengthen its position in the higher-end laptop and PC space over the coming year, and likely beyond, as the company will continue to improve its chips going forward.</p><p><blockquote>随着最新高功率和高效率芯片的推出，苹果应该能够在未来一年甚至更长时间内加强其在高端笔记本电脑和个人电脑领域的地位，因为该公司将继续改进其芯片。</blockquote></p><p> The market for PCs has been relatively strong in 2020 and 2021, on the back of more people working from home. On top of that, distance learning, due to school closures, and more demand for home entertainment, due to lockdowns that reduced the availability of out-of-house entertainment choices, have been beneficial for the global PC market over the last one and a half years. Gartner states that PC shipments rose by 1% during the third quarter, on top of a 4% growth rate in 2020, which had been the best year over the preceding decade. Gartner also estimates that Apple was the number four company in global PC market share, with an 8.6% market share:</p><p><blockquote>由于越来越多的人在家工作，个人电脑市场在2020年和2021年相对强劲。最重要的是，由于学校关闭而导致的远程学习，以及由于封锁减少了户外娱乐选择的可用性，对家庭娱乐的更多需求，在过去一年半中有利于全球个人电脑市场。Gartner 表示，第三季度个人电脑出货量增长了 1%，而 2020 年的增长率为 4%，而 2020 年是过去十年中最好的一年。Gartner还估计，苹果是全球PC市场份额第四大公司，市场份额为8.6%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d8d6789d1c411907024a3576277475\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Gartner (linked above)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Gartner（上面链接）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple was able to grow its market share by 50 basis points, which allowed the company to grow its overall sales by 7%, which was well above the overall market growth. Thanks to the introduction of its new and highly capable chips, it would not be a surprise to see Apple gain further market share in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的市场份额增长了 50 个基点，这使得该公司的整体销售额增长了 7%，远高于整体市场增长。由于推出了新的高性能芯片，苹果在未来几年进一步获得市场份额也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> Apple's PC and laptop business is, however, not overly large relative to the company's overall size. This is why solid growth in the PC space will not necessarily lead to huge growth for the company overall. Apple is highly dependent on iPhone sales as those make up the majority of the company's revenue and profits. Apple recently had to announce that it would cut iPhone 13 shipments by 10 million in Q4 due to part shortages, which doesn't bode too well for the company's near-term outlook. Once part shortages have ended, production should expand again, but the iPhone business nevertheless isn't a high-growth franchise.</p><p><blockquote>然而，相对于公司的整体规模，苹果的个人电脑和笔记本电脑业务并不算太大。这就是为什么个人电脑领域的稳健增长不一定会给公司带来巨大的整体增长。苹果高度依赖 iPhone 销售，因为这些销售构成了公司收入和利润的大部分。苹果最近不得不宣布，由于零部件短缺，第四季度将 iPhone 13 出货量削减 1000 万部，这对该公司的近期前景来说不是好兆头。一旦零件短缺结束，生产应该会再次扩大，但iPhone业务仍然不是一个高增长的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> With much of the top line being dependent on the lower-growth iPhone business, it is not too surprising to see that analysts aren't predicting a lot of growth for Apple going forward:</p><p><blockquote>由于大部分营收依赖于增长较低的 iPhone 业务，分析师预测苹果未来不会出现大幅增长也就不足为奇了：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59ba4b8335c70daaec148cbf01c9c24e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the current year, analysts are predicting a 4% revenue increase, with a 5% top-line improvement being expected for the following year. Beyond that, however, growth is forecasted to decelerate. It is, of course, possible that Apple will outperform expectations, but it should be noted that the company actually missed estimates for the most recent quarter, breaking a very solid record of beating estimates. It is thus not guaranteed that Apple's actual performance will be better than the ~3% annual growth that analysts are forecasting today.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计今年收入将增长 4%，明年营收预计将增长 5%。然而，除此之外，预计增长将放缓。当然，苹果的表现有可能超出预期，但应该指出的是，该公司最近一个季度实际上未能达到预期，打破了超出预期的非常坚实的记录。因此，不能保证苹果的实际业绩会好于分析师目前预测的约3%的年增长率。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, Apple has been able to grow its earnings per share way quicker than its revenue, thanks to margin improvements and the impact of buybacks. Buybacks will continue to have a positive impact on Apple's earnings per share growth, but most likely not at a similar magnitude compared to what we have seen in the past. When Apple was trading at 10-15x net profits, its buybacks had a lot more power, and the company was able to lower its share count pretty quickly. Today, with shares trading at 26x forward earnings, its share repurchase program is less impactful, as fewer shares can be bought back. This, in turn, leads to a smaller share count decline, which results in less pronounced earnings per share growth tailwinds. Overall, Apple should still be able to grow its earnings per share relatively reliably in the future, but I do believe that the current valuation could be too high for the growth that one can expect going forward.</p><p><blockquote>过去，由于利润率的提高和回购的影响，苹果的每股收益增长速度远远快于收入增长速度。回购将继续对苹果每股收益增长产生积极影响，但与我们过去看到的情况相比，其影响程度很可能不会类似。当苹果的交易价格为净利润的 10-15 倍时，其回购拥有更大的权力，该公司能够很快减少其股票数量。如今，由于股价远期市盈率为 26 倍，其股票回购计划的影响力较小，因为可以回购的股票越来越少。这反过来又导致股票数量下降幅度较小，从而导致每股收益增长的推动力不太明显。总体而言，苹果未来应该仍然能够相对可靠地增长每股收益，但我确实相信，目前的估值对于未来的增长来说可能太高了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdd3345ac6ca823a3dbc32016209746\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently predicting that Apple will earn $5.70 during the current fiscal year (which ends in September 2022), while earnings per share for the following two years are seen at $6.04 and $6.42. This pencils out to a growth rate of around 6% over these two years, which isn't disastrous at all, but it's also far from excellent. When we consider that Apple trades at 26x forward earnings today, while the median earnings multiple over the last decade is just 16, then Apple does not look like an exciting investment, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测苹果在本财年（截至 2022 年 9 月）的盈利为 5.70 美元，而未来两年的每股收益分别为 6.04 美元和 6.42 美元。这意味着这两年的增长率约为 6%，这根本不是灾难性的，但也远非优秀。当我们考虑到苹果目前的远期市盈率为 26 倍，而过去十年的市盈率中位数仅为 16 倍时，我认为苹果看起来并不是一项令人兴奋的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Apple Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In the very long term, an investment in Apple will in all likelihood generate positive returns. Those could still be at a level that isn't especially attractive, however. With Apple entering a phase of somewhat subdued growth, while shares are historically expensive, I believe that the total return outlook isn't too great with shares trading at $150.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，投资苹果很可能会产生正回报。然而，这些水平可能仍然不是特别有吸引力。随着苹果进入增长有些疲软的阶段，而股价历来昂贵，我相信股价在 150 美元时的总回报前景不会太好。</blockquote></p><p> Apple will likely make gains in the PC space, but this alone will not be enough to move Apple's top line by a large amount, due to the fact that the PC and laptop business is relatively small in comparison to the much larger iPhone business. With some revenue growth and the impact of buybacks, 6%-10% annual earnings per share growth seems achievable, but I don't think that paying more than 25x forward earnings for that growth makes for a great investment proposal. Overall, I think Apple is a<i>Hold</i>at current prices, due to its relatively high valuation.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能会在个人电脑领域取得收益，但仅凭这一点还不足以大幅推动苹果的营收，因为与规模大得多的iPhone业务相比，个人电脑和笔记本电脑业务相对较小。随着一些收入增长和回购的影响，6%-10% 的每股年度收益增长似乎是可以实现的，但我认为为这种增长支付超过 25 倍的远期收益并不是一个很好的投资建议。总的来说，我认为苹果是一个<i>抓住</i>按当前价格计算，由于其估值相对较高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How Does Transition Away From Intel Chips Impact Business Outlook?<blockquote>苹果股票：放弃英特尔芯片如何影响商业前景？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How Does Transition Away From Intel Chips Impact Business Outlook?<blockquote>苹果股票：放弃英特尔芯片如何影响商业前景？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-03 21:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple's new chips, the M1 Pro and the M1 Max, are very powerful and energy-efficient at the same time.</li> <li>Getting rid of Intel and taking control of the chips it uses fits well with Apple's strategy, and its products will become more attractive.</li> <li>Overall, Apple still doesn't look like a great buy today, mainly due to a too-high valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03a6d9440c644482577c587ef65ade11\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>David Paul Morris/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果的新芯片M1 Pro和M1 Max非常强大，同时也非常节能。</li><li>摆脱英特尔并控制其使用的芯片，非常符合苹果的战略，其产品将变得更具吸引力。</li><li>总体而言，苹果今天看起来仍然不太值得购买，主要是因为估值过高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大卫·保罗·莫里斯/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)has been increasing its focus on developing and using its own silicon for its laptops. Thanks to strong performance metrics and excellent power/performance ratios, these new chips, such as the M1 Pro and the M1 Max should help improve the value proposition of Apple's MacBooks, which could lead to higher market share. MacBooks aren't Apple's most important product by far, but over the years, moving away from Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)should still be an incremental positive for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）一直越来越关注为其笔记本电脑开发和使用自己的芯片。由于强大的性能指标和出色的功率/性能比，这些新芯片，如M1 Pro和M1 Max，应该有助于提高苹果MacBook的价值主张，这可能会导致更高的市场份额。到目前为止，MacBook 还不是苹果最重要的产品，但多年来，摆脱英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）对苹果来说仍然是一个渐进的积极因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Did Apple Use Intel Chips?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果用的是英特尔芯片吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Macs had been using Intel processors for 15 years, but that has changed with recent new Mac and MacBook releases. In 2020, Apple has showcased laptops and a Mac that use its own chip, the M1, for the first time, ending the partnership with Intel that had been running for well over a decade. Intel's chips had been using the X86 technology, whereas the chips that Apple develops utilize the ARM architecture -- the one that it also had been using for its iPhone and iPad chips for a long period of time. In the past, ARM-based chips had not been powerful enough for the more demanding applications and use cases that play a role for PCs. Apple has now, however, closed that performance gap, which allows them to use its own ARM-based silicon to power its Macs and MacBooks in the future.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的Mac电脑已经使用英特尔处理器15年了，但随着最近新的Mac和MacBook的发布，这种情况发生了变化。2020年，苹果首次展示了使用自己芯片M1的笔记本电脑和Mac，结束了与英特尔长达十多年的合作关系。英特尔的芯片一直使用X86技术，而苹果开发的芯片使用ARM架构——它也在其iPhone和iPad芯片中使用了很长一段时间。在过去，基于ARM的芯片对于在PC中发挥作用的要求更高的应用和用例来说还不够强大。然而，苹果现在已经缩小了这一性能差距，这使得他们能够在未来使用自己的基于ARM的芯片为其Mac和MacBook提供动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Are Apple's Newest Chips?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果最新的芯片有哪些？</b></blockquote></p><p> In the laptop and PC space, Apple's newest chips are the M1 Pro and M1 Max, following up on last year's M1 chip. These new chips are being offered in the MacBook Pro and,presumably, in the 2022 MacBook Pro. These chips do, according to Apple, provide an unprecedented performance relative to the power they consume:</p><p><blockquote>在笔记本电脑和个人电脑领域，苹果最新的芯片是M1 Pro和M1 Max，是去年M1芯片的后续产品。这些新芯片将在MacBook Pro中提供，大概也将在2022年的MacBook Pro中提供。根据苹果的说法，这些芯片确实提供了相对于其消耗的功率而言前所未有的性能：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea5c5be296a3e4ee0ca481937b02087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With up to 10 CPU cores, up to 32 GPU cores, and up to 64 GB of shared RAM, Apple's newest chips offer outstanding performance. As we can see in the above chart, this performance is achieved at considerably lower power consumption relative to current chips by competitors. This is especially important when it comes to Apple's MacBooks, as power consumption is highly important for laptops. Not only does lower power consumption lead to lower operating costs, but the laptop can also be constructed with lower battery capacity, all else equal, which translates into an improved form factor and lower weight. This, in turn, will make the new laptops more user-friendly, which should attract more buyers and help Apple expand its market share.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的最新芯片拥有多达10个CPU核心、多达32个GPU核心和多达64 GB的共享RAM，性能卓越。正如我们在上图中看到的，相对于竞争对手的当前芯片，这种性能是在相当低的功耗下实现的。对于苹果的MacBook来说，这一点尤为重要，因为功耗对于笔记本电脑来说非常重要。更低的功耗不仅导致更低的运营成本，而且在其他条件相同的情况下，笔记本电脑还可以用更低的电池容量来构建，这转化为改进的外形和更低的重量。这反过来将使新笔记本电脑更加用户友好，这应该会吸引更多的买家，并帮助苹果扩大其市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Is Apple Transitioning Away From Intel Chips?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么苹果要放弃英特尔芯片？</b></blockquote></p><p> There are several reasons for Apple's decision to move away from Intel and to develop its own chips for its laptops and PCs. First, this move gives Apple more control over core technologies and makes the company less dependent on suppliers. If Apple wants to make changes to its chips it can easily do that and put the engineering focus where it sees the biggest potential gains or benefits. While Apple was using Intel's chips, it was dependent on smart R&D by Intel, and thus not in control. This fits well with Apple's strategy that is sometimes called the <i>Tim Cook Doctrine</i>. The CEO has explained that Apple has a <i>“long-term strategy of owning and controlling the primary technologies behind the products that we make.”</i>Getting more control over the chips it uses in laptops and PCs is just a relatively logical step for a company that seeks to increase its ownership in key technologies for its products in order to become more dominant and less dependent on suppliers over time.</p><p><blockquote>苹果决定摆脱英特尔，为其笔记本电脑和个人电脑开发自己的芯片有几个原因。首先，此举让苹果对核心技术有了更多的控制权，并使该公司对供应商的依赖减少。如果苹果想对其芯片进行改变，它可以很容易地做到这一点，并将工程重点放在它看到最大潜在收益或好处的地方。虽然苹果使用英特尔的芯片，但它依赖于英特尔的智能研发，因此无法控制。这与苹果的战略非常吻合，有时被称为<i>蒂姆·库克主义</i>首席执行官解释说，苹果有一个<i>“拥有和控制我们所生产产品背后的核心技术的长期战略”。</i>对于一家寻求增加其产品关键技术所有权的公司来说，获得对笔记本电脑和个人电脑中使用的芯片的更多控制权只是一个相对合乎逻辑的步骤，以便随着时间的推移变得更具主导地位，减少对供应商的依赖。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, technological progress has allowed ARM chips to increase their performance relative to X86 chips over the last couple of years. Due to the better efficiency of these chips and the huge benefits this efficiency guarantees in the notebook space, it is logical for Apple to pursue ARM-based chips instead of Intel's X86 architecture as this allows Apple to craft a better overall product.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，技术进步使得ARM芯片在过去几年中相对于X86芯片提高了性能。由于这些芯片的更好效率以及这种效率在笔记本电脑领域保证的巨大好处，苹果追求基于ARM的芯片而不是英特尔的X86架构是合乎逻辑的，因为这使得苹果能够打造更好的整体产品。</blockquote></p><p> In short, there are thus both strategic reasons for Apple to move away from Intel, while there are also technical reasons that make ARM-based chips look favorable relative to what Apple was able to buy from Intel.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，因此苹果放弃英特尔既有战略原因，也有技术原因使得基于ARM的芯片相对于苹果能够从英特尔购买的芯片看起来更有利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> With the introduction of the most recent high-powered and highly efficient chips, Apple should be able to strengthen its position in the higher-end laptop and PC space over the coming year, and likely beyond, as the company will continue to improve its chips going forward.</p><p><blockquote>随着最新高功率和高效率芯片的推出，苹果应该能够在未来一年甚至更长时间内加强其在高端笔记本电脑和个人电脑领域的地位，因为该公司将继续改进其芯片。</blockquote></p><p> The market for PCs has been relatively strong in 2020 and 2021, on the back of more people working from home. On top of that, distance learning, due to school closures, and more demand for home entertainment, due to lockdowns that reduced the availability of out-of-house entertainment choices, have been beneficial for the global PC market over the last one and a half years. Gartner states that PC shipments rose by 1% during the third quarter, on top of a 4% growth rate in 2020, which had been the best year over the preceding decade. Gartner also estimates that Apple was the number four company in global PC market share, with an 8.6% market share:</p><p><blockquote>由于越来越多的人在家工作，个人电脑市场在2020年和2021年相对强劲。最重要的是，由于学校关闭而导致的远程学习，以及由于封锁减少了户外娱乐选择的可用性，对家庭娱乐的更多需求，在过去一年半中有利于全球个人电脑市场。Gartner 表示，第三季度个人电脑出货量增长了 1%，而 2020 年的增长率为 4%，而 2020 年是过去十年中最好的一年。Gartner还估计，苹果是全球PC市场份额第四大公司，市场份额为8.6%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d8d6789d1c411907024a3576277475\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Gartner (linked above)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Gartner（上面链接）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple was able to grow its market share by 50 basis points, which allowed the company to grow its overall sales by 7%, which was well above the overall market growth. Thanks to the introduction of its new and highly capable chips, it would not be a surprise to see Apple gain further market share in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的市场份额增长了 50 个基点，这使得该公司的整体销售额增长了 7%，远高于整体市场增长。由于推出了新的高性能芯片，苹果在未来几年进一步获得市场份额也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> Apple's PC and laptop business is, however, not overly large relative to the company's overall size. This is why solid growth in the PC space will not necessarily lead to huge growth for the company overall. Apple is highly dependent on iPhone sales as those make up the majority of the company's revenue and profits. Apple recently had to announce that it would cut iPhone 13 shipments by 10 million in Q4 due to part shortages, which doesn't bode too well for the company's near-term outlook. Once part shortages have ended, production should expand again, but the iPhone business nevertheless isn't a high-growth franchise.</p><p><blockquote>然而，相对于公司的整体规模，苹果的个人电脑和笔记本电脑业务并不算太大。这就是为什么个人电脑领域的稳健增长不一定会给公司带来巨大的整体增长。苹果高度依赖 iPhone 销售，因为这些销售构成了公司收入和利润的大部分。苹果最近不得不宣布，由于零部件短缺，第四季度将 iPhone 13 出货量削减 1000 万部，这对该公司的近期前景来说不是好兆头。一旦零件短缺结束，生产应该会再次扩大，但iPhone业务仍然不是一个高增长的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> With much of the top line being dependent on the lower-growth iPhone business, it is not too surprising to see that analysts aren't predicting a lot of growth for Apple going forward:</p><p><blockquote>由于大部分营收依赖于增长较低的 iPhone 业务，分析师预测苹果未来不会出现大幅增长也就不足为奇了：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59ba4b8335c70daaec148cbf01c9c24e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the current year, analysts are predicting a 4% revenue increase, with a 5% top-line improvement being expected for the following year. Beyond that, however, growth is forecasted to decelerate. It is, of course, possible that Apple will outperform expectations, but it should be noted that the company actually missed estimates for the most recent quarter, breaking a very solid record of beating estimates. It is thus not guaranteed that Apple's actual performance will be better than the ~3% annual growth that analysts are forecasting today.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计今年收入将增长 4%，明年营收预计将增长 5%。然而，除此之外，预计增长将放缓。当然，苹果的表现有可能超出预期，但应该指出的是，该公司最近一个季度实际上未能达到预期，打破了超出预期的非常坚实的记录。因此，不能保证苹果的实际业绩会好于分析师目前预测的约3%的年增长率。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, Apple has been able to grow its earnings per share way quicker than its revenue, thanks to margin improvements and the impact of buybacks. Buybacks will continue to have a positive impact on Apple's earnings per share growth, but most likely not at a similar magnitude compared to what we have seen in the past. When Apple was trading at 10-15x net profits, its buybacks had a lot more power, and the company was able to lower its share count pretty quickly. Today, with shares trading at 26x forward earnings, its share repurchase program is less impactful, as fewer shares can be bought back. This, in turn, leads to a smaller share count decline, which results in less pronounced earnings per share growth tailwinds. Overall, Apple should still be able to grow its earnings per share relatively reliably in the future, but I do believe that the current valuation could be too high for the growth that one can expect going forward.</p><p><blockquote>过去，由于利润率的提高和回购的影响，苹果的每股收益增长速度远远快于收入增长速度。回购将继续对苹果每股收益增长产生积极影响，但与我们过去看到的情况相比，其影响程度很可能不会类似。当苹果的交易价格为净利润的 10-15 倍时，其回购拥有更大的权力，该公司能够很快减少其股票数量。如今，由于股价远期市盈率为 26 倍，其股票回购计划的影响力较小，因为可以回购的股票越来越少。这反过来又导致股票数量下降幅度较小，从而导致每股收益增长的推动力不太明显。总体而言，苹果未来应该仍然能够相对可靠地增长每股收益，但我确实相信，目前的估值对于未来的增长来说可能太高了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdd3345ac6ca823a3dbc32016209746\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently predicting that Apple will earn $5.70 during the current fiscal year (which ends in September 2022), while earnings per share for the following two years are seen at $6.04 and $6.42. This pencils out to a growth rate of around 6% over these two years, which isn't disastrous at all, but it's also far from excellent. When we consider that Apple trades at 26x forward earnings today, while the median earnings multiple over the last decade is just 16, then Apple does not look like an exciting investment, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测苹果在本财年（截至 2022 年 9 月）的盈利为 5.70 美元，而未来两年的每股收益分别为 6.04 美元和 6.42 美元。这意味着这两年的增长率约为 6%，这根本不是灾难性的，但也远非优秀。当我们考虑到苹果目前的远期市盈率为 26 倍，而过去十年的市盈率中位数仅为 16 倍时，我认为苹果看起来并不是一项令人兴奋的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Apple Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In the very long term, an investment in Apple will in all likelihood generate positive returns. Those could still be at a level that isn't especially attractive, however. With Apple entering a phase of somewhat subdued growth, while shares are historically expensive, I believe that the total return outlook isn't too great with shares trading at $150.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，投资苹果很可能会产生正回报。然而，这些水平可能仍然不是特别有吸引力。随着苹果进入增长有些疲软的阶段，而股价历来昂贵，我相信股价在 150 美元时的总回报前景不会太好。</blockquote></p><p> Apple will likely make gains in the PC space, but this alone will not be enough to move Apple's top line by a large amount, due to the fact that the PC and laptop business is relatively small in comparison to the much larger iPhone business. With some revenue growth and the impact of buybacks, 6%-10% annual earnings per share growth seems achievable, but I don't think that paying more than 25x forward earnings for that growth makes for a great investment proposal. Overall, I think Apple is a<i>Hold</i>at current prices, due to its relatively high valuation.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能会在个人电脑领域取得收益，但仅凭这一点还不足以大幅推动苹果的营收，因为与规模大得多的iPhone业务相比，个人电脑和笔记本电脑业务相对较小。随着一些收入增长和回购的影响，6%-10% 的每股年度收益增长似乎是可以实现的，但我认为为这种增长支付超过 25 倍的远期收益并不是一个很好的投资建议。总的来说，我认为苹果是一个<i>抓住</i>按当前价格计算，由于其估值相对较高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464531-apple-stock-transition-intel-chips\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464531-apple-stock-transition-intel-chips","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125884187","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's new chips, the M1 Pro and the M1 Max, are very powerful and energy-efficient at the same time.\nGetting rid of Intel and taking control of the chips it uses fits well with Apple's strategy, and its products will become more attractive.\nOverall, Apple still doesn't look like a great buy today, mainly due to a too-high valuation.\n\nDavid Paul Morris/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL)has been increasing its focus on developing and using its own silicon for its laptops. Thanks to strong performance metrics and excellent power/performance ratios, these new chips, such as the M1 Pro and the M1 Max should help improve the value proposition of Apple's MacBooks, which could lead to higher market share. MacBooks aren't Apple's most important product by far, but over the years, moving away from Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)should still be an incremental positive for Apple.\nDid Apple Use Intel Chips?\nApple's Macs had been using Intel processors for 15 years, but that has changed with recent new Mac and MacBook releases. In 2020, Apple has showcased laptops and a Mac that use its own chip, the M1, for the first time, ending the partnership with Intel that had been running for well over a decade. Intel's chips had been using the X86 technology, whereas the chips that Apple develops utilize the ARM architecture -- the one that it also had been using for its iPhone and iPad chips for a long period of time. In the past, ARM-based chips had not been powerful enough for the more demanding applications and use cases that play a role for PCs. Apple has now, however, closed that performance gap, which allows them to use its own ARM-based silicon to power its Macs and MacBooks in the future.\nWhat Are Apple's Newest Chips?\nIn the laptop and PC space, Apple's newest chips are the M1 Pro and M1 Max, following up on last year's M1 chip. These new chips are being offered in the MacBook Pro and,presumably, in the 2022 MacBook Pro. These chips do, according to Apple, provide an unprecedented performance relative to the power they consume:\nSource: Apple\nWith up to 10 CPU cores, up to 32 GPU cores, and up to 64 GB of shared RAM, Apple's newest chips offer outstanding performance. As we can see in the above chart, this performance is achieved at considerably lower power consumption relative to current chips by competitors. This is especially important when it comes to Apple's MacBooks, as power consumption is highly important for laptops. Not only does lower power consumption lead to lower operating costs, but the laptop can also be constructed with lower battery capacity, all else equal, which translates into an improved form factor and lower weight. This, in turn, will make the new laptops more user-friendly, which should attract more buyers and help Apple expand its market share.\nWhy Is Apple Transitioning Away From Intel Chips?\nThere are several reasons for Apple's decision to move away from Intel and to develop its own chips for its laptops and PCs. First, this move gives Apple more control over core technologies and makes the company less dependent on suppliers. If Apple wants to make changes to its chips it can easily do that and put the engineering focus where it sees the biggest potential gains or benefits. While Apple was using Intel's chips, it was dependent on smart R&D by Intel, and thus not in control. This fits well with Apple's strategy that is sometimes called the Tim Cook Doctrine. The CEO has explained that Apple has a “long-term strategy of owning and controlling the primary technologies behind the products that we make.”Getting more control over the chips it uses in laptops and PCs is just a relatively logical step for a company that seeks to increase its ownership in key technologies for its products in order to become more dominant and less dependent on suppliers over time.\nOn top of that, technological progress has allowed ARM chips to increase their performance relative to X86 chips over the last couple of years. Due to the better efficiency of these chips and the huge benefits this efficiency guarantees in the notebook space, it is logical for Apple to pursue ARM-based chips instead of Intel's X86 architecture as this allows Apple to craft a better overall product.\nIn short, there are thus both strategic reasons for Apple to move away from Intel, while there are also technical reasons that make ARM-based chips look favorable relative to what Apple was able to buy from Intel.\nApple Stock Forecast\nWith the introduction of the most recent high-powered and highly efficient chips, Apple should be able to strengthen its position in the higher-end laptop and PC space over the coming year, and likely beyond, as the company will continue to improve its chips going forward.\nThe market for PCs has been relatively strong in 2020 and 2021, on the back of more people working from home. On top of that, distance learning, due to school closures, and more demand for home entertainment, due to lockdowns that reduced the availability of out-of-house entertainment choices, have been beneficial for the global PC market over the last one and a half years. Gartner states that PC shipments rose by 1% during the third quarter, on top of a 4% growth rate in 2020, which had been the best year over the preceding decade. Gartner also estimates that Apple was the number four company in global PC market share, with an 8.6% market share:\nSource: Gartner (linked above)\nApple was able to grow its market share by 50 basis points, which allowed the company to grow its overall sales by 7%, which was well above the overall market growth. Thanks to the introduction of its new and highly capable chips, it would not be a surprise to see Apple gain further market share in the coming years.\nApple's PC and laptop business is, however, not overly large relative to the company's overall size. This is why solid growth in the PC space will not necessarily lead to huge growth for the company overall. Apple is highly dependent on iPhone sales as those make up the majority of the company's revenue and profits. Apple recently had to announce that it would cut iPhone 13 shipments by 10 million in Q4 due to part shortages, which doesn't bode too well for the company's near-term outlook. Once part shortages have ended, production should expand again, but the iPhone business nevertheless isn't a high-growth franchise.\nWith much of the top line being dependent on the lower-growth iPhone business, it is not too surprising to see that analysts aren't predicting a lot of growth for Apple going forward:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nFor the current year, analysts are predicting a 4% revenue increase, with a 5% top-line improvement being expected for the following year. Beyond that, however, growth is forecasted to decelerate. It is, of course, possible that Apple will outperform expectations, but it should be noted that the company actually missed estimates for the most recent quarter, breaking a very solid record of beating estimates. It is thus not guaranteed that Apple's actual performance will be better than the ~3% annual growth that analysts are forecasting today.\nIn the past, Apple has been able to grow its earnings per share way quicker than its revenue, thanks to margin improvements and the impact of buybacks. Buybacks will continue to have a positive impact on Apple's earnings per share growth, but most likely not at a similar magnitude compared to what we have seen in the past. When Apple was trading at 10-15x net profits, its buybacks had a lot more power, and the company was able to lower its share count pretty quickly. Today, with shares trading at 26x forward earnings, its share repurchase program is less impactful, as fewer shares can be bought back. This, in turn, leads to a smaller share count decline, which results in less pronounced earnings per share growth tailwinds. Overall, Apple should still be able to grow its earnings per share relatively reliably in the future, but I do believe that the current valuation could be too high for the growth that one can expect going forward.\nData by YCharts\nAnalysts are currently predicting that Apple will earn $5.70 during the current fiscal year (which ends in September 2022), while earnings per share for the following two years are seen at $6.04 and $6.42. This pencils out to a growth rate of around 6% over these two years, which isn't disastrous at all, but it's also far from excellent. When we consider that Apple trades at 26x forward earnings today, while the median earnings multiple over the last decade is just 16, then Apple does not look like an exciting investment, I believe.\nIs Apple Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nIn the very long term, an investment in Apple will in all likelihood generate positive returns. Those could still be at a level that isn't especially attractive, however. With Apple entering a phase of somewhat subdued growth, while shares are historically expensive, I believe that the total return outlook isn't too great with shares trading at $150.\nApple will likely make gains in the PC space, but this alone will not be enough to move Apple's top line by a large amount, due to the fact that the PC and laptop business is relatively small in comparison to the much larger iPhone business. With some revenue growth and the impact of buybacks, 6%-10% annual earnings per share growth seems achievable, but I don't think that paying more than 25x forward earnings for that growth makes for a great investment proposal. Overall, I think Apple is aHoldat current prices, due to its relatively high valuation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1165,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/841755008"}
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