走在雨中
2021-11-06
目前公平市场的苹果股价为313美元，这使得股票被低估了52%左右。在适用了33%的安全边际后，该公司的股价为210美元，低估了28%
Apple Shares Are Likely To Consolidate For The Next Couple Of Years<blockquote>苹果股价可能会在未来几年整合</blockquote>
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Clumsypig
2021-11-06
Clumsypig
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(AAPL) generates large revenues and free cash flows and will most certainly continue to do so for the foreseeable future. This, however, could already be priced in the company's stock, which makes it susceptible to a price consolidation or slight correction in the short term. This is even more so due to the post-pandemic hefty 2021 revenue increases, which the company is unlikely to sustain in the next year or two.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone制造商苹果公司(AAPL)创造了大量收入和自由现金流，并且在可预见的未来肯定会继续这样做。然而，这可能已经反映在该公司的股票中，这使得其在短期内容易受到价格盘整或小幅调整的影响。由于大流行后2021年收入大幅增长，情况更是如此，而该公司不太可能在未来一两年内维持这种增长。</blockquote></p><p> I have compiled some data from the company's past annual reports in an attempt to forecast the revenues for the next few years, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the current share price. As usual, I will go quickly through the existing financial situation of the company and then move on to more fun stuff.</p><p><blockquote>我从公司过去的年报中整理了一些数据，试图预测未来几年的收入，最终目标是评估当前的股价。像往常一样，我会快速浏览一下公司现有的财务状况，然后继续讨论更有趣的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b> <b>Revenue and Net Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b> <b>收入和净利润</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple generates revenues from multiple flagship products and services, including iPhone and iPad sales, App Store, Apple Care services, and cloud storage, to name a few. iPhone sales are the major contributor to revenues, but recently the Other Products category, which includes such items as Apple Watch, Home Air Pods, Home accessories and other wearables, has picked up quite nicely. Apple product users are pretty much locked into the iOS ecosystem and unwilling to part with such products anytime soon. Short of the company successively releasing a few subquality devices, it is not likely Apple's loyal customers will abandon the company anytime soon. This, in turn, will ensure Apple's consistent revenue generation for many more years to come.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的收入来自多种旗舰产品和服务，包括iPhone和iPad销售、App Store、苹果护理服务和云存储等。iPhone销售是收入的主要贡献者，但最近其他产品类别（包括苹果手表、家用Air Pods、家用配件和其他可穿戴设备等产品）的增长相当不错。苹果产品用户几乎被锁定在iOS生态系统中，不愿意很快放弃这些产品。除非该公司连续发布一些劣质设备，否则苹果的忠实客户不太可能很快放弃该公司。这反过来将确保苹果在未来许多年持续创收。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/961100741a042cb2c897688aabcd522e\" tg-width=\"1219\" tg-height=\"869\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from financial statements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：财务报表数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The operating margin is good at over 25%, considering the fierce competition in the tech sector, where margins are always being tested in order to gain market share.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到科技行业的激烈竞争，为了获得市场份额，利润率总是受到考验，营业利润率超过25%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8eb9c672e3b45c4d2ec65a02f9589b\" tg-width=\"1243\" tg-height=\"872\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from Morningstar</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自晨星</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Earnings have seen a sharp increase in 2021 after modest gains over the previous years. The earnings will likely pull back a bit, in line with the trend leading up to the pandemic. The dividend yield is relatively low when compared to many other tech giants.</p><p><blockquote>继前几年小幅增长后，2021年盈利大幅增长。盈利可能会略有回落，与大流行前的趋势一致。与许多其他科技巨头相比，股息收益率相对较低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b205ced6e4121d46f6ce97c6e974c9\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"793\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from Morningstar</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自晨星</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on Equity, Return on Invested Capital, and Return on Assets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股本回报率、投资资本回报率和资产回报率</b></blockquote></p><p> The same can be observed with the return on equity, invested capital, and assets. All these three metrics have seen a jump in the last year, with the return in equity being the highest.</p><p><blockquote>股本回报率、投资资本和资产也是如此。所有这三个指标在去年都出现了跃升，其中股本回报率最高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd53e274ebe24caee05dad4f8ce6d30b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"845\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from Morningstar</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自晨星</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The free cash flow per share is illustrated in the chart below. The growth is steady as the company can generate a lot of cash due to the popularity of its products.</p><p><blockquote>每股自由现金流如下图所示。由于其产品的受欢迎程度，该公司可以产生大量现金，因此增长稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff6820e064af46ae08148c4b83d16c5\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"792\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from company's annual report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自公司年报</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Health</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务健康</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's debt to equity ratio is 1.73, which is a bit high. The company will need to make principal payments at an average of $10 billion annually until 2026 and over $64 billion annually after that. The total term debt value is $118 billion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的负债权益比是1.73，这个数字有点高。到2026年，该公司将需要平均每年支付100亿美元的本金，此后每年支付超过640亿美元。定期债务总价值为1180亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18acaab5dba3afe2c680a7646e0c5e3b\" tg-width=\"1235\" tg-height=\"872\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from Morningstar</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自晨星</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The current and quick ratios have been declining in the last two years, correlated with the increase in liabilities. The quick ratio is slightly concerning due to having a value below 1, and the current ratio is not healthy either.</p><p><blockquote>过去两年，流动比率和速动比率一直在下降，与负债的增加相关。速动比率由于值低于1而略有令人担忧，流动比率也不健康。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a997577b95ba5afbeb1115f6f0dde9\" tg-width=\"1210\" tg-height=\"769\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from Morningstar</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自晨星</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Yield</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流收益率</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the relationship between the price and the FCF yield trend. This is another important metric in that it provides a measurement of the stock valuation. The stock price trending upwards while the yields are heading lower indicates an unsustainable trend and a likely correction in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了价格与FCF收益率趋势之间的关系。这是另一个重要指标，因为它提供了股票估值的衡量标准。股价上升而收益率下降表明趋势不可持续，短期内可能会出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4716e4f329559ebc190cad5e15b1b783\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Own calculations using Apple financial statements data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：使用苹果财务报表数据自行计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Share buybacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票回购</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fb36fdd1973c0052a742062dfecbd5\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"268\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple financial statements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果财务报表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Forecasting</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入预测</b></blockquote></p><p> To evaluate Apple shares' intrinsic value, we will need to estimate its future free cash flows, derived by subtracting the capital expenditures from the net cash provided by the operating activities. The latter is a Cash Flow statement item and is calculated starting with the net income and then adding and removing particular cash and non-cash items. In the case of Apple, the net cash from operating is usually about 25% higher than the net income due to the inclusion of the non-cash items that had been previously removed. CAPEX is forecasted by extrapolating the current trend into the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了评估苹果股票的内在价值，我们需要估计其未来的自由现金流，通过从经营活动提供的净现金中减去资本支出来得出。后者是现金流量表项目，从净收入开始计算，然后添加和删除特定的现金和非现金项目。就苹果而言，由于包含了之前删除的非现金项目，运营净现金通常比净利润高出约25%。资本支出是通过将当前趋势外推到未来来预测的。</blockquote></p><p> It is useful to know the percent share each Apple's products or services contribute to the total revenues when forecasting future revenues. This can be pulled directly from Apple's past annual returns, which I have done from 2016 to 2021. The percentages of each product revenue are in table 1 below.</p><p><blockquote>在预测未来收入时，了解每个苹果的产品或服务占总收入的百分比是很有用的。这可以直接从苹果过去的年度回报中得出，我从2016年到2021年都是这样做的。每种产品收入的百分比见下表1。</blockquote></p><p> Table 1</p><p><blockquote>表1</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fe14dec361f187ac3c60b9f83b2fc1e\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"616\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple financial statements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果财务报表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sales trends for each product and service is as follows:</p><p><blockquote>各产品及服务的销售趋势如下：</blockquote></p><p> Table 2</p><p><blockquote>表2</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425b2f0458a0a80a65608fdd62ed3f98\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple financial statements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果财务报表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As seen in the above table, the linear average increase of iPhone sales from 2016-2021 has been around 5% annually, but until 2020, iPhone sales were slowing by roughly 2% annually. We also need to calculate the sales percentages for each product over the last five years based on the percent change from one year to the next. For that, we combine data from tables 1 and 2 to arrive at the table below, which shows each product's share of revenues based on the sales trends.</p><p><blockquote>如上表所示，2016年至2021年iPhone销量的线性平均增长率约为每年5%，但直到2020年，iPhone销量每年放缓约2%。我们还需要根据一年到下一年的百分比变化来计算每种产品在过去五年中的销售百分比。为此，我们将表1和表2中的数据结合起来得出下表，该表根据销售趋势显示了每种产品的收入份额。</blockquote></p><p> Table 3</p><p><blockquote>表3</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26eb739b28820a6b656e1f4d62f6e10a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple financial statements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果财务报表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now that we have enough numbers to work with let's plug them in to forecast revenues for the next ten years. One thing worth noting is that the 2021 sales for each product have increased substantially once the pandemic restrictions began lifting, and such numbers are outliers and not sustainable during the next fiscal period. So we can expect a decrease in revenue growth in 2022, and I have calculated that decrease according to the sales trend before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们有了足够的数据，让我们用它们来预测未来十年的收入。值得注意的一件事是，一旦疫情限制开始解除，每种产品的2021年销售额都会大幅增长，而这些数字是异常值，在下一个财年不可持续。因此，我们可以预计2022年收入增长将会下降，我根据大流行前的销售趋势计算了这一下降。</blockquote></p><p> To forecast the CAPEX, I have applied a 16% YoY increase based on past trends.</p><p><blockquote>为了预测资本支出，我根据过去的趋势应用了16%的同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71de427e45ef49fa3bafb69225c6c1e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Own calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So now that we have all the required numbers, we can plug them into the formula to estimate the FCF up to 2030. Then, we can use the FCF values in the discounted cash flows formula to evaluate the current fair value of Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>因此，现在我们已经有了所有需要的数字，我们可以将它们代入公式来估计到2030年的自由现金流。然后，我们可以使用贴现现金流公式中的自由现金流值来评估苹果股票的当前公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation – Discounted Cash Flows Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值-折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccacf28807caba5b06c9c04a78da4c9c\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"530\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Own calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The discount rate is based on a 12% expected market return on our investment. S&P 500 long-term returns have averaged around 10%, whereas the returns have averaged 13.6% in the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>贴现率基于我们投资的12%预期市场回报率。标普500的长期回报率平均约为10%，而过去十年的平均回报率为13.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Based on these calculations, the current fair market Apple share price is $313, which makes the shares around 52% undervalued. After applying a 33% margin of safety, the share price comes at $210 or 28% undervalued. Keep in mind that this evaluation uses a long-term horizon. I expect revenue growth to lag in the short term, making the shares slightly overvalued for the next 1–2 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据这些计算，苹果目前的公平市场股价为313美元，这使得该股被低估了约52%。应用33%的安全边际后，股价为210美元，即被低估28%。请记住，此评估使用长期视野。我预计短期内收入增长将滞后，使该股在未来1-2年内略有高估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my opinion, this means that, in the short term, Apple shares will dip from the current levels or at least consolidate sideways, but I expect the share price to increase substantially from the current levels in the long term. This, of course, barring any general market correction or the appearance of a bear market. In that case, the revenues and future FCF will need to be revised downwards accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这意味着，短期内，苹果股价将从当前水平下跌或至少横盘整理，但我预计从长期来看，股价将从当前水平大幅上涨。当然，除非出现任何普遍的市场调整或熊市。在这种情况下，收入和未来的自由现金流将需要相应下调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术展望</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe682edd1ec22e01248602eef600c15f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Trading View, Apple's monthly chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Trading View、苹果月度图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The trend is still up, but there has been quite a bit of volatility in 2021. Such chart pattern does not signal a reversal in the trend, but at the same time, it is difficult to see the price trending higher from the current levels. Most likely, there will be a consolidation in the next two years before we begin another climb.</p><p><blockquote>趋势仍在上升，但2021年出现了相当大的波动。这种图表模式并不表明趋势逆转，但同时，很难看到价格从当前水平走高。最有可能的是，在我们开始另一次攀升之前，未来两年将会出现盘整。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think Apple is a great company that will handsomely reward its shareholders in the long run, but it would probably be wise to apply a wait-and-see approach in the short term. Any dip in the range of $125-130 would be a good entry position. If, after a correction, it breaks above $160, that would be my signal to increase my position to take advantage of the next bull run. Until then, I will be on the sidelines waiting patiently.</p><p><blockquote>我认为苹果是一家伟大的公司，从长远来看，它将为股东带来丰厚的回报，但短期内采取观望态度可能是明智的。125-130美元范围内的任何下跌都将是一个很好的入场位置。如果在回调后突破160美元，这将是我增加头寸以利用下一次牛市的信号。在那之前，我会在场边耐心等待。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Shares Are Likely To Consolidate For The Next Couple Of Years<blockquote>苹果股价可能会在未来几年整合</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Shares Are Likely To Consolidate For The Next Couple Of Years<blockquote>苹果股价可能会在未来几年整合</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-05 22:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Consistent growth in revenue, net income, free cash flow, but with high debt levels on the balance sheet.</li> <li>The company is well-diversified in the revenue sources, which include multiple highly-desired products and services.</li> <li>In the next couple of years, sales growth will likely slow compared to the substantial post-pandemic increase in 2021.</li> <li>This makes the shares a bit overvalued in the short term but still relatively undervalued in the long run.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b58c39fd0b9b8655afda5255203cbc1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>prachanart/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入、净利润、自由现金流持续增长，但资产负债表上的债务水平很高。</li><li>该公司的收入来源非常多元化，包括多种备受追捧的产品和服务。</li><li>未来几年，与2021年大流行后的大幅增长相比，销售增长可能会放缓。</li><li>这使得该股在短期内有点被高估，但从长期来看仍然相对被低估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>prachanart/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone maker Apple Inc. (AAPL) generates large revenues and free cash flows and will most certainly continue to do so for the foreseeable future. This, however, could already be priced in the company's stock, which makes it susceptible to a price consolidation or slight correction in the short term. This is even more so due to the post-pandemic hefty 2021 revenue increases, which the company is unlikely to sustain in the next year or two.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone制造商苹果公司(AAPL)创造了大量收入和自由现金流，并且在可预见的未来肯定会继续这样做。然而，这可能已经反映在该公司的股票中，这使得其在短期内容易受到价格盘整或小幅调整的影响。由于大流行后2021年收入大幅增长，情况更是如此，而该公司不太可能在未来一两年内维持这种增长。</blockquote></p><p> I have compiled some data from the company's past annual reports in an attempt to forecast the revenues for the next few years, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the current share price. As usual, I will go quickly through the existing financial situation of the company and then move on to more fun stuff.</p><p><blockquote>我从公司过去的年报中整理了一些数据，试图预测未来几年的收入，最终目标是评估当前的股价。像往常一样，我会快速浏览一下公司现有的财务状况，然后继续讨论更有趣的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b> <b>Revenue and Net Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b> <b>收入和净利润</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple generates revenues from multiple flagship products and services, including iPhone and iPad sales, App Store, Apple Care services, and cloud storage, to name a few. iPhone sales are the major contributor to revenues, but recently the Other Products category, which includes such items as Apple Watch, Home Air Pods, Home accessories and other wearables, has picked up quite nicely. Apple product users are pretty much locked into the iOS ecosystem and unwilling to part with such products anytime soon. Short of the company successively releasing a few subquality devices, it is not likely Apple's loyal customers will abandon the company anytime soon. This, in turn, will ensure Apple's consistent revenue generation for many more years to come.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的收入来自多种旗舰产品和服务，包括iPhone和iPad销售、App Store、苹果护理服务和云存储等。iPhone销售是收入的主要贡献者，但最近其他产品类别（包括苹果手表、家用Air Pods、家用配件和其他可穿戴设备等产品）的增长相当不错。苹果产品用户几乎被锁定在iOS生态系统中，不愿意很快放弃这些产品。除非该公司连续发布一些劣质设备，否则苹果的忠实客户不太可能很快放弃该公司。这反过来将确保苹果在未来许多年持续创收。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/961100741a042cb2c897688aabcd522e\" tg-width=\"1219\" tg-height=\"869\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from financial statements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：财务报表数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The operating margin is good at over 25%, considering the fierce competition in the tech sector, where margins are always being tested in order to gain market share.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到科技行业的激烈竞争，为了获得市场份额，利润率总是受到考验，营业利润率超过25%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8eb9c672e3b45c4d2ec65a02f9589b\" tg-width=\"1243\" tg-height=\"872\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from Morningstar</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自晨星</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Earnings have seen a sharp increase in 2021 after modest gains over the previous years. The earnings will likely pull back a bit, in line with the trend leading up to the pandemic. The dividend yield is relatively low when compared to many other tech giants.</p><p><blockquote>继前几年小幅增长后，2021年盈利大幅增长。盈利可能会略有回落，与大流行前的趋势一致。与许多其他科技巨头相比，股息收益率相对较低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b205ced6e4121d46f6ce97c6e974c9\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"793\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from Morningstar</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自晨星</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on Equity, Return on Invested Capital, and Return on Assets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股本回报率、投资资本回报率和资产回报率</b></blockquote></p><p> The same can be observed with the return on equity, invested capital, and assets. All these three metrics have seen a jump in the last year, with the return in equity being the highest.</p><p><blockquote>股本回报率、投资资本和资产也是如此。所有这三个指标在去年都出现了跃升，其中股本回报率最高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd53e274ebe24caee05dad4f8ce6d30b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"845\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from Morningstar</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自晨星</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The free cash flow per share is illustrated in the chart below. The growth is steady as the company can generate a lot of cash due to the popularity of its products.</p><p><blockquote>每股自由现金流如下图所示。由于其产品的受欢迎程度，该公司可以产生大量现金，因此增长稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff6820e064af46ae08148c4b83d16c5\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"792\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from company's annual report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自公司年报</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Health</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务健康</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's debt to equity ratio is 1.73, which is a bit high. The company will need to make principal payments at an average of $10 billion annually until 2026 and over $64 billion annually after that. The total term debt value is $118 billion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的负债权益比是1.73，这个数字有点高。到2026年，该公司将需要平均每年支付100亿美元的本金，此后每年支付超过640亿美元。定期债务总价值为1180亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18acaab5dba3afe2c680a7646e0c5e3b\" tg-width=\"1235\" tg-height=\"872\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from Morningstar</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自晨星</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The current and quick ratios have been declining in the last two years, correlated with the increase in liabilities. The quick ratio is slightly concerning due to having a value below 1, and the current ratio is not healthy either.</p><p><blockquote>过去两年，流动比率和速动比率一直在下降，与负债的增加相关。速动比率由于值低于1而略有令人担忧，流动比率也不健康。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a997577b95ba5afbeb1115f6f0dde9\" tg-width=\"1210\" tg-height=\"769\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data retrieved from Morningstar</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据取自晨星</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Yield</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流收益率</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the relationship between the price and the FCF yield trend. This is another important metric in that it provides a measurement of the stock valuation. The stock price trending upwards while the yields are heading lower indicates an unsustainable trend and a likely correction in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了价格与FCF收益率趋势之间的关系。这是另一个重要指标，因为它提供了股票估值的衡量标准。股价上升而收益率下降表明趋势不可持续，短期内可能会出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4716e4f329559ebc190cad5e15b1b783\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Own calculations using Apple financial statements data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：使用苹果财务报表数据自行计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Share buybacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票回购</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fb36fdd1973c0052a742062dfecbd5\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"268\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple financial statements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果财务报表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Forecasting</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入预测</b></blockquote></p><p> To evaluate Apple shares' intrinsic value, we will need to estimate its future free cash flows, derived by subtracting the capital expenditures from the net cash provided by the operating activities. The latter is a Cash Flow statement item and is calculated starting with the net income and then adding and removing particular cash and non-cash items. In the case of Apple, the net cash from operating is usually about 25% higher than the net income due to the inclusion of the non-cash items that had been previously removed. CAPEX is forecasted by extrapolating the current trend into the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了评估苹果股票的内在价值，我们需要估计其未来的自由现金流，通过从经营活动提供的净现金中减去资本支出来得出。后者是现金流量表项目，从净收入开始计算，然后添加和删除特定的现金和非现金项目。就苹果而言，由于包含了之前删除的非现金项目，运营净现金通常比净利润高出约25%。资本支出是通过将当前趋势外推到未来来预测的。</blockquote></p><p> It is useful to know the percent share each Apple's products or services contribute to the total revenues when forecasting future revenues. This can be pulled directly from Apple's past annual returns, which I have done from 2016 to 2021. The percentages of each product revenue are in table 1 below.</p><p><blockquote>在预测未来收入时，了解每个苹果的产品或服务占总收入的百分比是很有用的。这可以直接从苹果过去的年度回报中得出，我从2016年到2021年都是这样做的。每种产品收入的百分比见下表1。</blockquote></p><p> Table 1</p><p><blockquote>表1</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fe14dec361f187ac3c60b9f83b2fc1e\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"616\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple financial statements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果财务报表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sales trends for each product and service is as follows:</p><p><blockquote>各产品及服务的销售趋势如下：</blockquote></p><p> Table 2</p><p><blockquote>表2</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425b2f0458a0a80a65608fdd62ed3f98\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple financial statements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果财务报表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As seen in the above table, the linear average increase of iPhone sales from 2016-2021 has been around 5% annually, but until 2020, iPhone sales were slowing by roughly 2% annually. We also need to calculate the sales percentages for each product over the last five years based on the percent change from one year to the next. For that, we combine data from tables 1 and 2 to arrive at the table below, which shows each product's share of revenues based on the sales trends.</p><p><blockquote>如上表所示，2016年至2021年iPhone销量的线性平均增长率约为每年5%，但直到2020年，iPhone销量每年放缓约2%。我们还需要根据一年到下一年的百分比变化来计算每种产品在过去五年中的销售百分比。为此，我们将表1和表2中的数据结合起来得出下表，该表根据销售趋势显示了每种产品的收入份额。</blockquote></p><p> Table 3</p><p><blockquote>表3</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26eb739b28820a6b656e1f4d62f6e10a\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple financial statements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果财务报表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now that we have enough numbers to work with let's plug them in to forecast revenues for the next ten years. One thing worth noting is that the 2021 sales for each product have increased substantially once the pandemic restrictions began lifting, and such numbers are outliers and not sustainable during the next fiscal period. So we can expect a decrease in revenue growth in 2022, and I have calculated that decrease according to the sales trend before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们有了足够的数据，让我们用它们来预测未来十年的收入。值得注意的一件事是，一旦疫情限制开始解除，每种产品的2021年销售额都会大幅增长，而这些数字是异常值，在下一个财年不可持续。因此，我们可以预计2022年收入增长将会下降，我根据大流行前的销售趋势计算了这一下降。</blockquote></p><p> To forecast the CAPEX, I have applied a 16% YoY increase based on past trends.</p><p><blockquote>为了预测资本支出，我根据过去的趋势应用了16%的同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71de427e45ef49fa3bafb69225c6c1e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Own calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So now that we have all the required numbers, we can plug them into the formula to estimate the FCF up to 2030. Then, we can use the FCF values in the discounted cash flows formula to evaluate the current fair value of Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>因此，现在我们已经有了所有需要的数字，我们可以将它们代入公式来估计到2030年的自由现金流。然后，我们可以使用贴现现金流公式中的自由现金流值来评估苹果股票的当前公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation – Discounted Cash Flows Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值-折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccacf28807caba5b06c9c04a78da4c9c\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"530\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Own calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The discount rate is based on a 12% expected market return on our investment. S&P 500 long-term returns have averaged around 10%, whereas the returns have averaged 13.6% in the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>贴现率基于我们投资的12%预期市场回报率。标普500的长期回报率平均约为10%，而过去十年的平均回报率为13.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Based on these calculations, the current fair market Apple share price is $313, which makes the shares around 52% undervalued. After applying a 33% margin of safety, the share price comes at $210 or 28% undervalued. Keep in mind that this evaluation uses a long-term horizon. I expect revenue growth to lag in the short term, making the shares slightly overvalued for the next 1–2 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据这些计算，苹果目前的公平市场股价为313美元，这使得该股被低估了约52%。应用33%的安全边际后，股价为210美元，即被低估28%。请记住，此评估使用长期视野。我预计短期内收入增长将滞后，使该股在未来1-2年内略有高估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my opinion, this means that, in the short term, Apple shares will dip from the current levels or at least consolidate sideways, but I expect the share price to increase substantially from the current levels in the long term. This, of course, barring any general market correction or the appearance of a bear market. In that case, the revenues and future FCF will need to be revised downwards accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这意味着，短期内，苹果股价将从当前水平下跌或至少横盘整理，但我预计从长期来看，股价将从当前水平大幅上涨。当然，除非出现任何普遍的市场调整或熊市。在这种情况下，收入和未来的自由现金流将需要相应下调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术展望</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe682edd1ec22e01248602eef600c15f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Trading View, Apple's monthly chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Trading View、苹果月度图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The trend is still up, but there has been quite a bit of volatility in 2021. Such chart pattern does not signal a reversal in the trend, but at the same time, it is difficult to see the price trending higher from the current levels. Most likely, there will be a consolidation in the next two years before we begin another climb.</p><p><blockquote>趋势仍在上升，但2021年出现了相当大的波动。这种图表模式并不表明趋势逆转，但同时，很难看到价格从当前水平走高。最有可能的是，在我们开始另一次攀升之前，未来两年将会出现盘整。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think Apple is a great company that will handsomely reward its shareholders in the long run, but it would probably be wise to apply a wait-and-see approach in the short term. Any dip in the range of $125-130 would be a good entry position. If, after a correction, it breaks above $160, that would be my signal to increase my position to take advantage of the next bull run. Until then, I will be on the sidelines waiting patiently.</p><p><blockquote>我认为苹果是一家伟大的公司，从长远来看，它将为股东带来丰厚的回报，但短期内采取观望态度可能是明智的。125-130美元范围内的任何下跌都将是一个很好的入场位置。如果在回调后突破160美元，这将是我增加头寸以利用下一次牛市的信号。在那之前，我会在场边耐心等待。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465830-apple-shares-are-likely-to-consolidate-for-the-next-couple-of-years\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465830-apple-shares-are-likely-to-consolidate-for-the-next-couple-of-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152678543","content_text":"Summary\n\nConsistent growth in revenue, net income, free cash flow, but with high debt levels on the balance sheet.\nThe company is well-diversified in the revenue sources, which include multiple highly-desired products and services.\nIn the next couple of years, sales growth will likely slow compared to the substantial post-pandemic increase in 2021.\nThis makes the shares a bit overvalued in the short term but still relatively undervalued in the long run.\n\nprachanart/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe iPhone maker Apple Inc. (AAPL) generates large revenues and free cash flows and will most certainly continue to do so for the foreseeable future. This, however, could already be priced in the company's stock, which makes it susceptible to a price consolidation or slight correction in the short term. This is even more so due to the post-pandemic hefty 2021 revenue increases, which the company is unlikely to sustain in the next year or two.\nI have compiled some data from the company's past annual reports in an attempt to forecast the revenues for the next few years, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the current share price. As usual, I will go quickly through the existing financial situation of the company and then move on to more fun stuff.\nFinancials Revenue and Net Income\nApple generates revenues from multiple flagship products and services, including iPhone and iPad sales, App Store, Apple Care services, and cloud storage, to name a few. iPhone sales are the major contributor to revenues, but recently the Other Products category, which includes such items as Apple Watch, Home Air Pods, Home accessories and other wearables, has picked up quite nicely. Apple product users are pretty much locked into the iOS ecosystem and unwilling to part with such products anytime soon. Short of the company successively releasing a few subquality devices, it is not likely Apple's loyal customers will abandon the company anytime soon. This, in turn, will ensure Apple's consistent revenue generation for many more years to come.\nSource: Data retrieved from financial statements\nThe operating margin is good at over 25%, considering the fierce competition in the tech sector, where margins are always being tested in order to gain market share.\nSource: Data retrieved from Morningstar\nEarnings have seen a sharp increase in 2021 after modest gains over the previous years. The earnings will likely pull back a bit, in line with the trend leading up to the pandemic. The dividend yield is relatively low when compared to many other tech giants.\nSource: Data retrieved from Morningstar\nReturn on Equity, Return on Invested Capital, and Return on Assets\nThe same can be observed with the return on equity, invested capital, and assets. All these three metrics have seen a jump in the last year, with the return in equity being the highest.\nSource: Data retrieved from Morningstar\nThe free cash flow per share is illustrated in the chart below. The growth is steady as the company can generate a lot of cash due to the popularity of its products.\nSource: Data retrieved from company's annual report\nFinancial Health\nApple's debt to equity ratio is 1.73, which is a bit high. The company will need to make principal payments at an average of $10 billion annually until 2026 and over $64 billion annually after that. The total term debt value is $118 billion.\nSource: Data retrieved from Morningstar\nThe current and quick ratios have been declining in the last two years, correlated with the increase in liabilities. The quick ratio is slightly concerning due to having a value below 1, and the current ratio is not healthy either.\nSource: Data retrieved from Morningstar\nFree Cash Flow Yield\nThe chart below shows the relationship between the price and the FCF yield trend. This is another important metric in that it provides a measurement of the stock valuation. The stock price trending upwards while the yields are heading lower indicates an unsustainable trend and a likely correction in the short term.\nSource: Own calculations using Apple financial statements data\nShare buybacks\nSource: Apple financial statements\nRevenue Forecasting\nTo evaluate Apple shares' intrinsic value, we will need to estimate its future free cash flows, derived by subtracting the capital expenditures from the net cash provided by the operating activities. The latter is a Cash Flow statement item and is calculated starting with the net income and then adding and removing particular cash and non-cash items. In the case of Apple, the net cash from operating is usually about 25% higher than the net income due to the inclusion of the non-cash items that had been previously removed. CAPEX is forecasted by extrapolating the current trend into the future.\nIt is useful to know the percent share each Apple's products or services contribute to the total revenues when forecasting future revenues. This can be pulled directly from Apple's past annual returns, which I have done from 2016 to 2021. The percentages of each product revenue are in table 1 below.\nTable 1\nSource: Apple financial statements\nSales trends for each product and service is as follows:\nTable 2\nSource: Apple financial statements\nAs seen in the above table, the linear average increase of iPhone sales from 2016-2021 has been around 5% annually, but until 2020, iPhone sales were slowing by roughly 2% annually. We also need to calculate the sales percentages for each product over the last five years based on the percent change from one year to the next. For that, we combine data from tables 1 and 2 to arrive at the table below, which shows each product's share of revenues based on the sales trends.\nTable 3\nSource: Apple financial statements\nNow that we have enough numbers to work with let's plug them in to forecast revenues for the next ten years. One thing worth noting is that the 2021 sales for each product have increased substantially once the pandemic restrictions began lifting, and such numbers are outliers and not sustainable during the next fiscal period. So we can expect a decrease in revenue growth in 2022, and I have calculated that decrease according to the sales trend before the pandemic.\nTo forecast the CAPEX, I have applied a 16% YoY increase based on past trends.\nSource: Own calculations\nSo now that we have all the required numbers, we can plug them into the formula to estimate the FCF up to 2030. Then, we can use the FCF values in the discounted cash flows formula to evaluate the current fair value of Apple stock.\nValuation – Discounted Cash Flows Model\nSource: Own calculations\nThe discount rate is based on a 12% expected market return on our investment. S&P 500 long-term returns have averaged around 10%, whereas the returns have averaged 13.6% in the last decade.\nBased on these calculations, the current fair market Apple share price is $313, which makes the shares around 52% undervalued. After applying a 33% margin of safety, the share price comes at $210 or 28% undervalued. Keep in mind that this evaluation uses a long-term horizon. I expect revenue growth to lag in the short term, making the shares slightly overvalued for the next 1–2 years.\nIn my opinion, this means that, in the short term, Apple shares will dip from the current levels or at least consolidate sideways, but I expect the share price to increase substantially from the current levels in the long term. This, of course, barring any general market correction or the appearance of a bear market. In that case, the revenues and future FCF will need to be revised downwards accordingly.\nTechnical Outlook\nSource: Trading View, Apple's monthly chart\nThe trend is still up, but there has been quite a bit of volatility in 2021. Such chart pattern does not signal a reversal in the trend, but at the same time, it is difficult to see the price trending higher from the current levels. Most likely, there will be a consolidation in the next two years before we begin another climb.\nConclusion\nI think Apple is a great company that will handsomely reward its shareholders in the long run, but it would probably be wise to apply a wait-and-see approach in the short term. Any dip in the range of $125-130 would be a good entry position. If, after a correction, it breaks above $160, that would be my signal to increase my position to take advantage of the next bull run. Until then, I will be on the sidelines waiting patiently.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2072,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AAPL"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":113,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":6469597,"commentId":"6469597","gmtCreate":1636131532297,"gmtModify":1636131532297,"authorId":3494281781797251,"author":{"id":3494281781797251,"idStr":"3494281781797251","authorId":3494281781797251,"name":"Clumsypig","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b15f83d2e489f283f51b78126066b4e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30fc324d24ff33075e053005564f0df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":842307611,"objectIdStr":"842307611","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"文章说的是未来五年，不是现在","text":"文章说的是未来五年，不是现在","html":"文章说的是未来五年，不是现在","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/842307611"}
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