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2021-11-02

Sooner or later have to stop bond buying

Fed's bond-buying timeline: roaring entry, boring exit?<blockquote>美联储债券购买时间表：咆哮入场，无聊退出？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":843451300,"tweetId":"843451300","gmtCreate":1635853123232,"gmtModify":1635853123232,"author":{"id":4087275030265320,"idStr":"4087275030265320","authorId":4087275030265320,"authorIdStr":"4087275030265320","name":"Cyberkien","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cf0950785302dba9fc6bb16c8df76ac","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Sooner or later have to stop bond buying&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Sooner or later have to stop bond buying&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Sooner or later have to stop bond buying","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843451300","repostId":1172727273,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172727273","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635848521,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172727273?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 18:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed's bond-buying timeline: roaring entry, boring exit?<blockquote>美联储债券购买时间表：咆哮入场，无聊退出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172727273","media":"Reuters","summary":"It is hardly a secret by now that the Federal Reserve is going to reduce its support for the U.S. ec","content":"It is hardly a secret by now that the Federal Reserve is going to reduce its support for the U.S. economy soon: starting this month it will likely begin to pare its monthly asset purchases by $15 billion each month until ending them by mid-2022.<blockquote>美联储将很快减少对美国经济的支持，这已经不是什么秘密了：从本月开始，它可能会开始每月削减150亿美元的资产购买，直到2022年中期结束。</blockquote> That, at least, is the roadmap suggested by the Fed's post-meeting statements, minutes of its meetings, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It is expected to be spelled out when this week's policy meeting wraps up Wednesday, although officials may keep options open for speeding or slowing the taper to suit economic needs.<blockquote>至少，这是美联储会后声明、会议纪要以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话所建议的路线图。预计本周的政策会议将在周三结束时详细说明，尽管官员们可能会保留加快或放缓缩减规模以满足经济需求的选择。</blockquote> But overall, the Fed has telegraphed what Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker says will be a \"boring\" exit from what is now $120 billion in monthly bond buys.<blockquote>但总体而言，美联储已经发出了费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克所说的退出目前每月1200亿美元债券购买规模将是“无聊的”。</blockquote> That is despite the fact that the reductions this time will proceed at about twice the pace as the last time the Fed ended a bond-buying program, in 2014.<blockquote>尽管事实上，这次的减码速度将是美联储上次于2014年结束债券购买计划时的两倍左右。</blockquote> It is also a stark contrast to March of 2020, when U.S. authorities were first shutting down parts of the economy to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In response the Fed abruptly cut interest rates to zero, rolled out a raft of emergency lending programs, and began hoovering up trillions in Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds.<blockquote>这也与2020年3月形成鲜明对比，当时美国当局首次关闭部分经济以防止新冠肺炎病毒的传播。作为回应，美联储突然将利率降至零，推出了一系列紧急贷款计划，并开始吸纳数万亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持债券。</blockquote> The bond-buying is credited with helping stabilize the financial system and, later, to bolster demand and foster a faster recovery from the sharpest downturn in decades.<blockquote>债券购买被认为有助于稳定金融体系，并在后来提振需求并促进从几十年来最严重的衰退中更快复苏。</blockquote> More recently some Fed policymakers have questioned its effectiveness and even raised the alarm over its potential harms amid an economy marked by rising inflation and too much demand relative to pandemic-constrained supply. They all agree it should be pared back soon, minutes from the Fed's last meeting show.<blockquote>最近，一些美联储政策制定者质疑其有效性，甚至对其在通胀上升和相对于大流行限制的供应需求过多的经济中的潜在危害发出了警告。美联储上次会议纪要显示，他们都同意应该尽快削减。</blockquote> Here is a look back at the arc of the Fed's pandemic bond-buying program - what policymakers said, what the central bank did, and what's likely to lie ahead.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/068d6c0e281ed2ae076d291ca2359a7c\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">A CRACK, AND THEN THE FLOODGATES<blockquote>以下是对美联储大流行债券购买计划的回顾——政策制定者说了什么，央行做了什么，以及未来可能会发生什么。一道裂缝，然后是闸门</blockquote> Fed Chair Powell issued a terse and unusual statement Feb. 28, 2020, as stock markets plunged amid reports of the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus. The Fed, he said, is \"closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook\" and \"will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.\"<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔于2020年2月28日发表了一份简短而不同寻常的声明，当时有报道称新型冠状病毒迅速蔓延，股市暴跌。他表示，美联储正在“密切关注事态发展及其对经济前景的影响”，并“将使用我们的工具并采取适当行动来支持经济”。</blockquote> Three days later policymakers cut interest rates by half a percentage point. On March 15, they slashed the rate to near-zero, where it has stayed since, and promised to buy \"at least\" $500 billion of Treasuries and $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities in coming months. Eight days later they shifted to an open-ended pledge to continue buying \"in the amounts needed\" to smooth markets and aid in monetary policy transmission.<blockquote>三天后，政策制定者将利率下调了半个百分点。3月15日，他们将利率下调至接近于零的水平，此后一直保持不变，并承诺在未来几个月内购买“至少”5000亿美元的美国国债和2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。八天后，他们转向了一项开放式承诺，继续“按所需数量”购买，以平稳市场并帮助货币政策传导。</blockquote> By the end of April and the two-month recession, the Fed's weekly accountings show they had added $1.4 trillion of Treasuries, and $234 billion of mortgage-backed securities. The central bank's balance sheet stood at $6.7 trillion, up from $4.4 trillion before the pandemic.<blockquote>到4月底和两个月的衰退，美联储的每周账目显示，他们增加了1.4万亿美元的美国国债和2340亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。央行的资产负债表为6.7万亿美元，高于疫情爆发前的4.4万亿美元。</blockquote> THE STEADY STREAM<blockquote>稳定的溪流</blockquote> By June 2020, the Fed's bond-buying had settled into a slower rhythm: $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in housing-backed bonds each month, Powell noted at his regular news conference. In its statement the Fed promised \"over coming months\" to continue to buy bonds \"at least at the current pace\" to sustain smooth markets and help transmit monetary policy. In September it kept that language and added that the purchases would \"help foster accommodative financial conditions\" and keep credit flowing to households and businesses.<blockquote>鲍威尔在例行新闻发布会上指出，到2020年6月，美联储的债券购买节奏已经放缓：每月购买800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的住房支持债券。美联储在声明中承诺“在未来几个月”继续“至少以目前的速度”购买债券，以维持市场平稳并帮助传导货币政策。9月份，它保留了这一措辞，并补充说，购买将“有助于营造宽松的金融环境”，并保持信贷流向家庭和企业。</blockquote> SETTING THE TEST FOR TAPER<blockquote>设置锥度测试</blockquote> In December 2020, with its balance sheet at $7.4 trillion, the Fed started the clock on the end to its bond buying, promising to keep up the $120 billion a month pace \"until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.\"<blockquote>2020年12月，美联储资产负债表规模为7.4万亿美元，开始结束债券购买，承诺保持每月1200亿美元的步伐，“直到在实现委员会最大就业和价格方面取得实质性进一步进展”稳定目标。”</blockquote> This language remained unchanged for the statements issued in January, March, April and June of this year.<blockquote>这一措辞在今年1月、3月、4月和6月发表的声明中保持不变。</blockquote> NEARING THE BAR FOR TAPER<blockquote>接近锥形杆</blockquote> July's statement acknowledged that \"the economy has made progress toward these goals,\" and in August Powell said the bar had been met for inflation, and \"clear progress\" had been made toward maximum employment; it could, he said, be appropriate to start reducing bond buying this year. In its September post-meeting statement the Fed went further: \"if progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.\" Powell went still further in the news conference that followed, saying the employment test is \"all but met\" and \"we could easily move ahead at the next meeting,\" with policymakers supporting a pace of reduction that \"will put us having completed our taper around the middle of next year.\"<blockquote>7月份的声明承认“经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展”，8月份鲍威尔表示通胀已达到门槛，在实现最大就业方面取得了“明显进展”；他表示，今年开始减少债券购买可能是合适的。美联储在9月份的会后声明中更进一步：“如果进展如预期般广泛持续，委员会判断可能很快就有必要放缓资产购买步伐。”鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上更进一步，表示就业测试“几乎满足了”，“我们可以在下次会议上轻松推进”，政策制定者支持削减的步伐，“这将使我们在明年年中左右完成缩减规模。”</blockquote> TAPER TIME<blockquote>锥度时间</blockquote> \"I do think it's time to taper.\" That's how Powell put it on Oct. 22, leaving little doubt for the outcome of this week's meeting. Minutes from the September meeting showed policymakers thought reducing Treasury securities purchases by $10 billion each month and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each month would be \"straightforward and appropriate.\" At that pace, if the taper begins in November, purchases would be phased out completely by June. On Oct. 27 the Fed's balance sheet stood at $8.6 trillion; at the expected tapering pace, it will be just over $9 trillion when the program ends, twice its pre-pandemic size.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63cf407bfdb81b8eaa23baf1d03d068d\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">WHAT'S NEXT?<blockquote>“我确实认为是时候减少开支了。”这是鲍威尔在10月22日的说法，对本周会议的结果几乎没有任何疑问。9月份会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为每月减少100亿美元的国债购买量，每月减少50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券购买量将是“简单而适当的”。按照这个速度，如果taper在11月开始，购买将在6月完全停止。10月27日，美联储的资产负债表为8.6万亿美元；按照预期的缩减速度，该计划结束时将略高于9万亿美元，是大流行前规模的两倍。接下来是什么？</blockquote> At some point the Fed is expected to take the next step back to monetary policy normalcy by raising rates, although policymakers are currently divided on whether that will happen in 2022 or 2023.<blockquote>预计在某个时候，美联储将通过加息采取下一步措施，恢复货币政策常态，尽管政策制定者目前对加息是在2022年还是2023年发生存在分歧。</blockquote> As for the fate of the balance sheet, even less is known. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says the Fed should let its balance sheet shrink over the next few years by letting maturing securities roll off, rather than use the proceeds to buy replacements as it did for years after it ended its post-financial crisis bond-buying program. It's unclear how widely his view is shared at the Fed.<blockquote>至于资产负债表的命运，人们知之甚少。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，美联储应该在未来几年通过让到期证券滚存来缩小资产负债表，而不是像结束金融危机后债券购买计划后的几年那样，用所得资金购买替代品。目前尚不清楚他的观点在美联储得到了多广泛的认同。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's bond-buying timeline: roaring entry, boring exit?<blockquote>美联储债券购买时间表：咆哮入场，无聊退出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's bond-buying timeline: roaring entry, boring exit?<blockquote>美联储债券购买时间表：咆哮入场，无聊退出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nReuters2021-11-02 18:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt is hardly a secret by now that the Federal Reserve is going to reduce its support for the U.S. economy soon: starting this month it will likely begin to pare its monthly asset purchases by $15 billion each month until ending them by mid-2022.<blockquote>美联储将很快减少对美国经济的支持，这已经不是什么秘密了：从本月开始，它可能会开始每月削减150亿美元的资产购买，直到2022年中期结束。</blockquote> That, at least, is the roadmap suggested by the Fed's post-meeting statements, minutes of its meetings, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It is expected to be spelled out when this week's policy meeting wraps up Wednesday, although officials may keep options open for speeding or slowing the taper to suit economic needs.<blockquote>至少，这是美联储会后声明、会议纪要以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话所建议的路线图。预计本周的政策会议将在周三结束时详细说明，尽管官员们可能会保留加快或放缓缩减规模以满足经济需求的选择。</blockquote> But overall, the Fed has telegraphed what Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker says will be a \"boring\" exit from what is now $120 billion in monthly bond buys.<blockquote>但总体而言，美联储已经发出了费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克所说的退出目前每月1200亿美元债券购买规模将是“无聊的”。</blockquote> That is despite the fact that the reductions this time will proceed at about twice the pace as the last time the Fed ended a bond-buying program, in 2014.<blockquote>尽管事实上，这次的减码速度将是美联储上次于2014年结束债券购买计划时的两倍左右。</blockquote> It is also a stark contrast to March of 2020, when U.S. authorities were first shutting down parts of the economy to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In response the Fed abruptly cut interest rates to zero, rolled out a raft of emergency lending programs, and began hoovering up trillions in Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds.<blockquote>这也与2020年3月形成鲜明对比，当时美国当局首次关闭部分经济以防止新冠肺炎病毒的传播。作为回应，美联储突然将利率降至零，推出了一系列紧急贷款计划，并开始吸纳数万亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持债券。</blockquote> The bond-buying is credited with helping stabilize the financial system and, later, to bolster demand and foster a faster recovery from the sharpest downturn in decades.<blockquote>债券购买被认为有助于稳定金融体系，并在后来提振需求并促进从几十年来最严重的衰退中更快复苏。</blockquote> More recently some Fed policymakers have questioned its effectiveness and even raised the alarm over its potential harms amid an economy marked by rising inflation and too much demand relative to pandemic-constrained supply. They all agree it should be pared back soon, minutes from the Fed's last meeting show.<blockquote>最近，一些美联储政策制定者质疑其有效性，甚至对其在通胀上升和相对于大流行限制的供应需求过多的经济中的潜在危害发出了警告。美联储上次会议纪要显示，他们都同意应该尽快削减。</blockquote> Here is a look back at the arc of the Fed's pandemic bond-buying program - what policymakers said, what the central bank did, and what's likely to lie ahead.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/068d6c0e281ed2ae076d291ca2359a7c\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">A CRACK, AND THEN THE FLOODGATES<blockquote>以下是对美联储大流行债券购买计划的回顾——政策制定者说了什么，央行做了什么，以及未来可能会发生什么。一道裂缝，然后是闸门</blockquote> Fed Chair Powell issued a terse and unusual statement Feb. 28, 2020, as stock markets plunged amid reports of the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus. The Fed, he said, is \"closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook\" and \"will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.\"<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔于2020年2月28日发表了一份简短而不同寻常的声明，当时有报道称新型冠状病毒迅速蔓延，股市暴跌。他表示，美联储正在“密切关注事态发展及其对经济前景的影响”，并“将使用我们的工具并采取适当行动来支持经济”。</blockquote> Three days later policymakers cut interest rates by half a percentage point. On March 15, they slashed the rate to near-zero, where it has stayed since, and promised to buy \"at least\" $500 billion of Treasuries and $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities in coming months. Eight days later they shifted to an open-ended pledge to continue buying \"in the amounts needed\" to smooth markets and aid in monetary policy transmission.<blockquote>三天后，政策制定者将利率下调了半个百分点。3月15日，他们将利率下调至接近于零的水平，此后一直保持不变，并承诺在未来几个月内购买“至少”5000亿美元的美国国债和2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。八天后，他们转向了一项开放式承诺，继续“按所需数量”购买，以平稳市场并帮助货币政策传导。</blockquote> By the end of April and the two-month recession, the Fed's weekly accountings show they had added $1.4 trillion of Treasuries, and $234 billion of mortgage-backed securities. The central bank's balance sheet stood at $6.7 trillion, up from $4.4 trillion before the pandemic.<blockquote>到4月底和两个月的衰退，美联储的每周账目显示，他们增加了1.4万亿美元的美国国债和2340亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。央行的资产负债表为6.7万亿美元，高于疫情爆发前的4.4万亿美元。</blockquote> THE STEADY STREAM<blockquote>稳定的溪流</blockquote> By June 2020, the Fed's bond-buying had settled into a slower rhythm: $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in housing-backed bonds each month, Powell noted at his regular news conference. In its statement the Fed promised \"over coming months\" to continue to buy bonds \"at least at the current pace\" to sustain smooth markets and help transmit monetary policy. In September it kept that language and added that the purchases would \"help foster accommodative financial conditions\" and keep credit flowing to households and businesses.<blockquote>鲍威尔在例行新闻发布会上指出，到2020年6月，美联储的债券购买节奏已经放缓：每月购买800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的住房支持债券。美联储在声明中承诺“在未来几个月”继续“至少以目前的速度”购买债券，以维持市场平稳并帮助传导货币政策。9月份，它保留了这一措辞，并补充说，购买将“有助于营造宽松的金融环境”，并保持信贷流向家庭和企业。</blockquote> SETTING THE TEST FOR TAPER<blockquote>设置锥度测试</blockquote> In December 2020, with its balance sheet at $7.4 trillion, the Fed started the clock on the end to its bond buying, promising to keep up the $120 billion a month pace \"until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.\"<blockquote>2020年12月，美联储资产负债表规模为7.4万亿美元，开始结束债券购买，承诺保持每月1200亿美元的步伐，“直到在实现委员会最大就业和价格方面取得实质性进一步进展”稳定目标。”</blockquote> This language remained unchanged for the statements issued in January, March, April and June of this year.<blockquote>这一措辞在今年1月、3月、4月和6月发表的声明中保持不变。</blockquote> NEARING THE BAR FOR TAPER<blockquote>接近锥形杆</blockquote> July's statement acknowledged that \"the economy has made progress toward these goals,\" and in August Powell said the bar had been met for inflation, and \"clear progress\" had been made toward maximum employment; it could, he said, be appropriate to start reducing bond buying this year. In its September post-meeting statement the Fed went further: \"if progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.\" Powell went still further in the news conference that followed, saying the employment test is \"all but met\" and \"we could easily move ahead at the next meeting,\" with policymakers supporting a pace of reduction that \"will put us having completed our taper around the middle of next year.\"<blockquote>7月份的声明承认“经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展”，8月份鲍威尔表示通胀已达到门槛，在实现最大就业方面取得了“明显进展”；他表示，今年开始减少债券购买可能是合适的。美联储在9月份的会后声明中更进一步：“如果进展如预期般广泛持续，委员会判断可能很快就有必要放缓资产购买步伐。”鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上更进一步，表示就业测试“几乎满足了”，“我们可以在下次会议上轻松推进”，政策制定者支持削减的步伐，“这将使我们在明年年中左右完成缩减规模。”</blockquote> TAPER TIME<blockquote>锥度时间</blockquote> \"I do think it's time to taper.\" That's how Powell put it on Oct. 22, leaving little doubt for the outcome of this week's meeting. Minutes from the September meeting showed policymakers thought reducing Treasury securities purchases by $10 billion each month and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each month would be \"straightforward and appropriate.\" At that pace, if the taper begins in November, purchases would be phased out completely by June. On Oct. 27 the Fed's balance sheet stood at $8.6 trillion; at the expected tapering pace, it will be just over $9 trillion when the program ends, twice its pre-pandemic size.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63cf407bfdb81b8eaa23baf1d03d068d\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">WHAT'S NEXT?<blockquote>“我确实认为是时候减少开支了。”这是鲍威尔在10月22日的说法，对本周会议的结果几乎没有任何疑问。9月份会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为每月减少100亿美元的国债购买量，每月减少50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券购买量将是“简单而适当的”。按照这个速度，如果taper在11月开始，购买将在6月完全停止。10月27日，美联储的资产负债表为8.6万亿美元；按照预期的缩减速度，该计划结束时将略高于9万亿美元，是大流行前规模的两倍。接下来是什么？</blockquote> At some point the Fed is expected to take the next step back to monetary policy normalcy by raising rates, although policymakers are currently divided on whether that will happen in 2022 or 2023.<blockquote>预计在某个时候，美联储将通过加息采取下一步措施，恢复货币政策常态，尽管政策制定者目前对加息是在2022年还是2023年发生存在分歧。</blockquote> As for the fate of the balance sheet, even less is known. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says the Fed should let its balance sheet shrink over the next few years by letting maturing securities roll off, rather than use the proceeds to buy replacements as it did for years after it ended its post-financial crisis bond-buying program. It's unclear how widely his view is shared at the Fed.<blockquote>至于资产负债表的命运，人们知之甚少。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，美联储应该在未来几年通过让到期证券滚存来缩小资产负债表，而不是像结束金融危机后债券购买计划后的几年那样，用所得资金购买替代品。目前尚不清楚他的观点在美联储得到了多广泛的认同。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-bond-buying-timeline-roaring-entry-boring-exit-2021-11-02/\">Reuters</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-bond-buying-timeline-roaring-entry-boring-exit-2021-11-02/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172727273","content_text":"It is hardly a secret by now that the Federal Reserve is going to reduce its support for the U.S. economy soon: starting this month it will likely begin to pare its monthly asset purchases by $15 billion each month until ending them by mid-2022.\nThat, at least, is the roadmap suggested by the Fed's post-meeting statements, minutes of its meetings, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It is expected to be spelled out when this week's policy meeting wraps up Wednesday, although officials may keep options open for speeding or slowing the taper to suit economic needs.\nBut overall, the Fed has telegraphed what Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker says will be a \"boring\" exit from what is now $120 billion in monthly bond buys.\nThat is despite the fact that the reductions this time will proceed at about twice the pace as the last time the Fed ended a bond-buying program, in 2014.\nIt is also a stark contrast to March of 2020, when U.S. authorities were first shutting down parts of the economy to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In response the Fed abruptly cut interest rates to zero, rolled out a raft of emergency lending programs, and began hoovering up trillions in Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds.\nThe bond-buying is credited with helping stabilize the financial system and, later, to bolster demand and foster a faster recovery from the sharpest downturn in decades.\nMore recently some Fed policymakers have questioned its effectiveness and even raised the alarm over its potential harms amid an economy marked by rising inflation and too much demand relative to pandemic-constrained supply. They all agree it should be pared back soon, minutes from the Fed's last meeting show.\nHere is a look back at the arc of the Fed's pandemic bond-buying program - what policymakers said, what the central bank did, and what's likely to lie ahead.A CRACK, AND THEN THE FLOODGATES\nFed Chair Powell issued a terse and unusual statement Feb. 28, 2020, as stock markets plunged amid reports of the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus. The Fed, he said, is \"closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook\" and \"will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.\"\nThree days later policymakers cut interest rates by half a percentage point. On March 15, they slashed the rate to near-zero, where it has stayed since, and promised to buy \"at least\" $500 billion of Treasuries and $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities in coming months. Eight days later they shifted to an open-ended pledge to continue buying \"in the amounts needed\" to smooth markets and aid in monetary policy transmission.\nBy the end of April and the two-month recession, the Fed's weekly accountings show they had added $1.4 trillion of Treasuries, and $234 billion of mortgage-backed securities. The central bank's balance sheet stood at $6.7 trillion, up from $4.4 trillion before the pandemic.\nTHE STEADY STREAM\nBy June 2020, the Fed's bond-buying had settled into a slower rhythm: $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in housing-backed bonds each month, Powell noted at his regular news conference. In its statement the Fed promised \"over coming months\" to continue to buy bonds \"at least at the current pace\" to sustain smooth markets and help transmit monetary policy. In September it kept that language and added that the purchases would \"help foster accommodative financial conditions\" and keep credit flowing to households and businesses.\nSETTING THE TEST FOR TAPER\nIn December 2020, with its balance sheet at $7.4 trillion, the Fed started the clock on the end to its bond buying, promising to keep up the $120 billion a month pace \"until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.\"\nThis language remained unchanged for the statements issued in January, March, April and June of this year.\nNEARING THE BAR FOR TAPER\nJuly's statement acknowledged that \"the economy has made progress toward these goals,\" and in August Powell said the bar had been met for inflation, and \"clear progress\" had been made toward maximum employment; it could, he said, be appropriate to start reducing bond buying this year. In its September post-meeting statement the Fed went further: \"if progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.\" Powell went still further in the news conference that followed, saying the employment test is \"all but met\" and \"we could easily move ahead at the next meeting,\" with policymakers supporting a pace of reduction that \"will put us having completed our taper around the middle of next year.\"\nTAPER TIME\n\"I do think it's time to taper.\" That's how Powell put it on Oct. 22, leaving little doubt for the outcome of this week's meeting. Minutes from the September meeting showed policymakers thought reducing Treasury securities purchases by $10 billion each month and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each month would be \"straightforward and appropriate.\" At that pace, if the taper begins in November, purchases would be phased out completely by June. On Oct. 27 the Fed's balance sheet stood at $8.6 trillion; at the expected tapering pace, it will be just over $9 trillion when the program ends, twice its pre-pandemic size.WHAT'S NEXT?\nAt some point the Fed is expected to take the next step back to monetary policy normalcy by raising rates, although policymakers are currently divided on whether that will happen in 2022 or 2023.\nAs for the fate of the balance sheet, even less is known. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says the Fed should let its balance sheet shrink over the next few years by letting maturing securities roll off, rather than use the proceeds to buy replacements as it did for years after it ended its post-financial crisis bond-buying program. It's unclear how widely his view is shared at the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2295,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":33,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/843451300"}