FireLong
2021-11-02
160目标价就对了
[开心]
AMD: Here's What I Am Doing After Another Blowout Earnings<blockquote>AMD：这是我在再次盈利井喷后正在做的事情</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":843733743,"tweetId":"843733743","gmtCreate":1635857563214,"gmtModify":1635857563393,"author":{"id":3585299936185604,"idStr":"3585299936185604","authorId":3585299936185604,"authorIdStr":"3585299936185604","name":"FireLong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0ad19a4098a906338280ccbe916e5ef","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":25,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>160目标价就对了<span>[开心] </span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>160目标价就对了<span>[开心] </span></p></body></html>","text":"160目标价就对了[开心]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843733743","repostId":1141215557,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1141215557","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635839419,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141215557?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 15:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Here's What I Am Doing After Another Blowout Earnings<blockquote>AMD：这是我在再次盈利井喷后正在做的事情</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141215557","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD is no longer an \"underdog\", and future growth projections do not necessarily justify it","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>AMD is no longer an \"underdog\", and future growth projections do not necessarily justify its current valuation. In this note, we review AMD's Q3 results and guidance.</li> <li>Furthermore, I provide a pro-forma valuation of AMD (+Xilinx). The easy money has been made in AMD over the last six years, and future returns may look very different.</li> <li>AMD is a decent buy at $122, however, potential investors should buy through Xilinx at $185 (a discounted proxy for AMD) (after Dr. Lisa Su's reassurances about the merger).</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55c4f8340ca053f249af481ee9a179\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD不再是“失败者”，未来的增长预测不一定能证明其当前的估值是合理的。在本说明中，我们回顾了 AMD 第三季度的业绩和指引。</li><li>此外，我提供了AMD（+Xilinx）的备考估值。过去六年来，AMD 一直在轻松赚钱，未来的回报可能会大不相同。</li><li>AMD 以 122 美元的价格买入是一个不错的选择，然而，潜在投资者应该通过 Xilinx 以 185 美元（AMD 的折扣价）的价格买入（在 Lisa Su 博士对合并做出保证之后）。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is probably one of the greatest turnaround stories ever, and investors have made incredible returns in this counter over the last six years. Under the leadership of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD has showcased tremendous business execution, and the company delivered yet another blowout quarter on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 可能是有史以来最伟大的扭亏为盈的故事之一，投资者在过去六年中在这个柜台上获得了令人难以置信的回报。在苏丽莎博士的领导下，AMD 展示了出色的业务执行力，该公司周二又实现了一个井喷的季度。</blockquote></p><p> As some of you may already know, I am an \"Intel (INTC) bull\"; however, I am not an \"AMD bear\" like some of the commenters in my recent articles have suggested. Today, I would like to explain my positioning in the semiconductor sector in some greater detail. First of all, we own Intel as a part of our dividend growth portfolio, which also consists of the likes of Broadcom (AVGO). Since AMD offers no dividend, it is unsuitable for BTM's DGI portfolio. On the other hand, AMD's risk/reward is keeping the stock out of our Goldilocks Zone (high growth) portfolio. Within this portfolio, we own Nvidia (NVDA) from a very low cost-basis; however, we are not adding at current valuations.</p><p><blockquote>你们中的一些人可能已经知道，我是一个“英特尔（INTC）多头”；然而，我并不像我最近文章中的一些评论者所说的那样是一个“AMD熊”。今天，我想更详细地解释我在半导体领域的定位。首先，我们拥有英特尔作为我们股息增长投资组合的一部分，该投资组合还包括博通 (AVGO) 等公司。由于 AMD 不提供股息，因此不适合 BTM 的 DGI 投资组合。另一方面，AMD 的风险/回报是将该股排除在我们的金发区（高增长）投资组合之外。在这个投资组合中，我们以非常低的成本持有 Nvidia (NVDA)；但是，我们不会按当前估值进行增加。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa59d7f65a7ba453d2c5e2ac474acb4d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, AMD's market cap stands at ~$150B, and it is quickly closing the gap on Intel, which is now valued at just ~$195B. Now, Intel does ~5x AMD's revenue, commands higher gross margins, and produces ~6x AMD's free cash flow. Considering these numbers, AMD seems expensive; however, growth is on AMD's side due to superior products, product roadmap, and business execution.</p><p><blockquote>如今，AMD 的市值约为 1500 亿美元，它正在迅速缩小与英特尔的差距，英特尔目前的估值仅为 1950 亿美元。现在，英特尔的收入是 AMD 的 5 倍，毛利率更高，自由现金流是 AMD 的 6 倍。考虑到这些数字，AMD似乎很贵；然而，由于卓越的产品、产品路线图和业务执行，增长站在AMD一边。</blockquote></p><p> In this note, we will briefly analyze AMD's Q3 report and formulate its valuation to see if this stock is a good long-term investment. Furthermore, we will explore a merger arbitrage play available in the AMD-Xilinx (XLNX) deal. So, let's get started.</p><p><blockquote>在本说明中，我们将简要分析AMD的第三季度报告，并制定其估值，看看这只股票是否是一个好的长期投资。此外，我们将探讨 AMD-Xilinx (XLNX) 交易中可用的合并套利策略。所以，让我们开始吧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reviewing AMD's Quarter And Forward Guidance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾 AMD 的季度和远期指引</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q3, AMD's revenue blew past analyst estimates to come in at $4.3B (up 54% y/y), and looking at the quarterly sales trend, it is fair to say that AMD's business is gaining momentum. Although the growth rates are decelerating due to tough comps from last year's PC boom, AMD's data center business is on fire and set to deliver greater numbers in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度，AMD 的收入超出了分析师的预期，达到 $4.3B（同比增长 54%），从季度销售趋势来看，可以公平地说 AMD 的业务正在获得动力。尽管由于去年 PC 繁荣带来的艰难竞争，增长率正在放缓，但 AMD 的数据中心业务正在蓬勃发展，并将在 2022 年及以后交付更多数据。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca687596d0fc2b068ae4f2084cc5235f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021 年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here are the highlights from each of AMD's business segments:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 AMD 各业务部门的亮点：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd4c75303205f05cd838394476d23de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa93460dcff118bdbe61dd980f59c07e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021 年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With its Ryzen, Radeon, and EPYC processors, AMD is winning market share across the CPU, GPU, and server (data center) markets. Over the last few years, AMD's products have been far superior to those of Intel's, and with a strong product roadmap, AMD looks good value for a greater chunk of the expanding semiconductor industry.</p><p><blockquote>凭借锐龙、镭龙和EPYC处理器，AMD正在CPU、GPU和服务器（数据中心）市场赢得市场份额。在过去的几年里，AMD 的产品远远优于英特尔的产品，凭借强大的产品路线图，AMD 看起来很有价值，可以在不断扩大的半导体行业中占据更大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> As the industry continues to grapple with supply shortages, AMD has focused its resources on higher-value chips. Naturally, AMD's gross margins have expanded significantly over the last few quarters. In Q3, AMD's gross margins improved by ~450 basis-points y/y to reach 48%. With a sharp rise in margins, AMD is delivering massive operating leverage, as evidenced by the ~111% y/y jump in operating income. As you can see below, AMD's operating margins have risen from 16% (Q3 2020) to 22% (Q3 2021). Overall, AMD's business is firing on all cylinders with rapid sales growth, massive margin expansion, and a big jump in profitability.</p><p><blockquote>随着该行业继续应对供应短缺问题，AMD 已将资源集中在价值更高的芯片上。当然，AMD 的毛利率在过去几个季度显着扩张。第三季度，AMD 的毛利率同比提高约 450 个基点，达到 48%。随着利润率的大幅上升，AMD 正在提供巨大的运营杠杆，经营利润同比增长约 111% 就证明了这一点。如下所示，AMD 的营业利润率已从 16%（2020 年第三季度）上升至 22%（2021 年第三季度）。总体而言，AMD 的业务正在全力以赴，销售快速增长，利润率大幅扩张，盈利能力大幅跃升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cc5504afd47983c25f2774e0570d4f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021 年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As it turns into a cash printing machine, AMD's balance sheet is turning into a fortress. At the end of Q3, AMD had cash balances of ~$3.6B with total debt of just ~0.3B. After teetering near bankruptcy at the start of the 2010s, it is fair to say that AMD has come leaps and bounds. Right now, AMD looks very well-positioned (from a financial and technological perspective) to win a more significant market share in a secular growth industry. With ample cash on its balance sheet, AMD used nearly all of its free cash flow on repurchasing shares as the company bought ~$750M worth of its own stock in Q3. In the future, we can expect these buybacks to become a routine affair.</p><p><blockquote>当它变成一台印钞机时，AMD的资产负债表正在变成一座堡垒。截至第三季度末，AMD 的现金余额约为 $3.6B，总债务仅为 $0.3B。在 2010 年代初濒临破产后，可以公平地说，AMD 已经取得了长足的进步。目前，AMD 看起来处于非常有利的位置（从财务和技术角度来看），可以在长期增长的行业中赢得更大的市场份额。由于资产负债表上现金充足，AMD 几乎将所有自由现金流用于回购股票，该公司在第三季度购买了价值约 7.5 亿美元的自有股票。未来，我们可以预期这些回购将成为例行公事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6e7cde8f920248271cf35fe9a25d17\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021 年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Q4, AMD is guiding for $4.4-4.6B in revenue on higher gross and operating margins of 49.5% and 25%, respectively. Hence, AMD's business momentum is likely to continue in the next quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 预计第四季度收入为 4.4-4.6B 美元，毛利率和营业利润率分别为 49.5% 和 25%。因此，AMD的业务势头可能会在下一季度继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb477f81eb4a7ad61c8bd412c2ec568\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021 年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When answering questions from an analyst on the earnings call, Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, said that the semiconductor shortages might end in 2022, and while competitive pressures are rising, she is confident in AMD's product roadmap. Furthermore, she affirmed that the demand environment is set to remain strong throughout 2022, with data center demand coming in hot, while the PC market is expected to remain flattish.</p><p><blockquote>AMD首席执行官苏丽珊博士在财报看涨期权上回答分析师提问时表示，半导体短缺可能会在2022年结束，虽然竞争压力不断增加，但她对AMD的产品路线图充满信心。此外，她确认，2022年全年需求环境将保持强劲，数据中心需求将火热，而个人电脑市场预计将保持平稳。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD's management stopped short of guiding for 2022, the company is likely to deliver rapid growth next year too (my estimate is ~25% y/y (tough comps)). With a strong leadership team at the helm, AMD is rapidly turning into a dominant semiconductor company. I am not convinced about AMD's ability to maintain its margins in 2022 due to growing expectations of a price war (and more competitive products) from Intel. Regardless, I see AMD as a secular growth stock with massive potential. With all of this information in mind, let us now attempt to find AMD's fair value and expected returns to see if it is a good investment.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 AMD 管理层没有给出 2022 年的指引，但该公司明年也可能实现快速增长（我的估计是同比增长约 25%（艰难的竞争））。在强大的领导团队掌舵下，AMD正在迅速转变为一家占主导地位的半导体公司。由于对英特尔价格战（以及更具竞争力的产品）的预期越来越大，我不相信 AMD 有能力在 2022 年保持利润率。无论如何，我认为 AMD 是一只具有巨大潜力的长期成长型股票。考虑到所有这些信息，让我们现在尝试找出 AMD 的公允价值和预期回报，看看它是否是一项不错的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD Stock's Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD 股票的公允价值和预期回报</b></blockquote></p><p> To determine AMD's fair value (including Xilinx), we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了确定 AMD（包括赛灵思）的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。以下是它需要的内容：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流被我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，该模型考虑了流通股变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们在十年结束时对未来增长前景进行估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和 10 年底的预计股价得出 CAGR。如果这比市场有足够的优势，我们就会投资。如果没有，我们等待更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 4, the model accounts for dividends.</li> </ul> <b>Assumptions:</b></p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤4中，模型考虑了股息。</li><b>假设：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2c8910a9bf6c76df79c4e529c306b4\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are the results:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结果如下：</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43cbdd6bbedd12d97187aee1a41535b3\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"733\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：洛杉矶史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, AMD is worth ~$147.5 per share, i.e., it is undervalued by ~17.24%. Now, let us analyze AMD's expected returns:</p><p><blockquote>如您所见，AMD 每股价值约 147.5 美元，即被低估约 17.24%。现在，让我们分析一下AMD的预期回报：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8289ded704fa9d728a0cc99a52d61d31\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"431\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：洛杉矶史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since AMD's expected return is equivalent to ~15% (our investment hurdle rate), it is only a modest buy at the current price. However, buying AMD via Xilinx could improve future returns, making it a worthy option. We will discuss this merger arbitrage play in just a moment, but before we do so, let's discuss something critical to our valuation.</p><p><blockquote>由于AMD的预期回报率相当于约15%（我们的投资门槛率），所以在当前价格下只是适度买入。然而，通过赛灵思收购 AMD 可以提高未来的回报，使其成为一个值得的选择。我们稍后将讨论这种合并套利游戏，但在此之前，让我们讨论一些对我们的估值至关重要的事情。</blockquote></p><p> The growth assumption of 15% CAGR from a base of $24B implies a 2031 revenue figure of $100B. If AMD fails to win a monopolistic market share (comparable to Intel's past dominance) over the next decade, these revenue growth targets may not be achieved. We must be cognizant of the fact that AMD is up against the likes of Nvidia, Apple (AAPL), Intel, ARM-based chip makers, and all other big-tech companies making their own chips in-house. Now, let's take a look at consensus analyst estimates for AMD's revenue growth rates:</p><p><blockquote>在24B美元的基础上，15%的CAGR增长假设意味着2031年的收入数字为100B美元。如果AMD未能在未来十年赢得垄断性的市场份额（堪比英特尔过去的统治地位），这些收入增长目标可能无法实现。我们必须认识到，AMD 面临的是英伟达、苹果 (AAPL)、英特尔、基于 ARM 的芯片制造商以及所有其他在内部制造自己芯片的大型科技公司。现在，让我们来看看分析师对 AMD 收入增长率的一致估计：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091912e1d573473e9e73c817553a210c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"489\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Earnings Estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha 盈利预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, AMD's growth rate is expected to decelerate significantly over the coming years. Now, I understand that Wall Street analysts are wrong most of the time, and I can envision a world where AMD does $100B in revenue every year. However, I don't think we have an ample margin of safety while investing in AMD due to aggressive growth projections priced into its stock.</p><p><blockquote>如您所见，AMD 的增长率预计将在未来几年大幅放缓。现在，我明白华尔街分析师大多数时候都是错误的，我可以想象一个 AMD 每年创造 100 亿美元收入的世界。然而，我认为我们在投资 AMD 时没有足够的安全边际，因为对其股票进行了激进的增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d673250c3933d2d52a7f602be131820\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD-Xilinx Deal Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD-赛灵思交易演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc077f3de38522b012a98d379e2724f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Investor Presentation August 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示文稿 2021 年 8 月</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the acquisition of Xilinx, AMD is expanding its total addressable market from ~80B to ~$110B. Currently, AMD's product portfolio is not as broad as Intel and Nvidia (AMD project's data center TAM for its products at just $45B, Intel and Nvidia have data center TAM's of ~$230B); however, this should be viewed as an opportunity for growth. With that being said, AMD's 3rd Gen EPYC processors (the fastest x86 server CPUs) are winning market share in the data center (still heavily dominated by Intel), and the company has a strong product roadmap for further enhancing its presence in high-performance computing, AI, and data center markets.</p><p><blockquote>通过收购赛灵思，AMD 正在将其总潜在市场从约 80B 扩展到约 1100 亿美元。目前，AMD的产品组合不如英特尔和英伟达广泛（AMD project的数据中心TAM仅为$45B，英特尔和英伟达的数据中心TAM约为$230B）；然而，这应该被视为增长的机会。话虽如此，AMD的第三代EPYC处理器（最快的x86服务器CPU）正在数据中心（仍由英特尔主导）赢得市场份额，该公司有一个强大的产品路线图，以进一步增强其在高性能计算、人工智能和数据中心市场的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22303a007195cbdaaa9d0c032f808011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f0e27628e9ffe614eeead78482d3ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15f62b8c21b28d66f525b49cf952feb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Investor Presentation August 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示文稿 2021 年 8 月</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the impending 2022 launches of Zen4 powered EPYC CPU processors and CDNA2-powered GPUs, AMD is set to maintain its product leadership over Intel, and capture more market share in the data center in 2022 and beyond. As we know, Intel is struggling with its manufacturing process, and a move to outsource advanced node manufacturing (to TSMC(NYSE:TSM)for Ponte Vecchio and a few other upcoming Intel products) is not enough to stop AMD's higher-performing, less power consuming products from winning market share (at least in the medium term). Hence, AMD can deliver another spectacular year of sales growth in 2022 (far better than what analyst estimates suggest).</p><p><blockquote>随着Zen4驱动的EPYC CPU处理器和CDNA2驱动的GPU即将于2022年推出，AMD将保持其对英特尔的产品领先地位，并在2022年及以后在数据中心占据更多市场份额。众所周知，英特尔的制造工艺正在苦苦挣扎，将先进节点制造外包（将 Ponte Vecchio 和其他一些即将推出的英特尔产品外包给台积电（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TSM））并不足以阻止 AMD 性能更高、功耗更低的产品赢得市场份额（至少在中期内）。因此，AMD 可以在 2022 年实现又一个惊人的销售增长（远远好于分析师的预期）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b572735984f930cb7497ffca7979b78b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Investor Presentation August 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示文稿 2021 年 8 月</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After years of solid execution, AMD has regained customer trust in the data center markets as evidenced by its recent partnerships with some of the largest cloud providers in the world. Under the exemplary leadership of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD can become a true heavyweight in the burgeoning semiconductor industry over the next decade and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>经过多年的稳健执行，AMD 在数据中心市场重新赢得了客户的信任，其最近与一些全球最大的云提供商的合作伙伴关系就证明了这一点。在苏丽莎博士的卓越领导下，AMD有望在未来十年及以后成为蓬勃发展的半导体行业中真正的重量级企业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD-Xilinx: Merger Arbitrage Play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD-赛灵思：合并套利游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, AMD's CEO, Dr. Lisa Su, reiterated the expectation of deal closure on the Xilinx acquisition by the end of this year. As you may know, AMD agreed to buy Xilinx in an all-stock deal, and each Xilinx stock will convert to 1.7234 shares of AMD. Due to market inefficiencies (or expectation of deal failure), investors can buy AMD via Xilinx's stock to avail of a massive discount. Here's how:</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，AMD 首席执行官 Lisa Su 博士重申了对 Xilinx 收购交易的预期。如您所知，AMD 同意以全股票交易的方式收购 Xilinx，每股 Xilinx 股票将转换为 1.7234 股 AMD 股票。由于市场效率低下（或交易失败的预期），投资者可以通过赛灵思的股票购买 AMD，以利用大幅折扣。方法如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dab83736090bcfe6741f8f790530a5a\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hence, investors looking to buy AMD can get a 12% discount by purchasing it via Xilinx. Furthermore, I think this is an excellent opportunity to establish a merger arbitrage trade - \"Buy '1x' Xilinx, Short '1.7234x' AMD\". With this trade, investors can pocket a 12% return in just two months (if the transaction closes as per the timeline provided by AMD's CEO).</p><p><blockquote>因此，希望购买AMD的投资者可以通过Xilinx购买获得12%的折扣。此外，我认为这是建立合并套利交易的绝佳机会——“买入‘1x’赛灵思，做空‘1.7234x’AMD”。通过这笔交易，投资者可以在短短两个月内获得 12% 的回报（如果交易按照 AMD 首席执行官提供的时间表完成）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD is performing exceptionally, and business will remain strong in the near term due to a strong demand persisting in a semiconductor supply crunch. The stock is still undervalued; however, AMD's risk/reward makes it only a modest buy. If you still want to buy AMD, I recommend buying it through Xilinx to avail of a ~12% discount on the purchase.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的表现非常出色，由于半导体供应紧缩期间需求强劲，短期内业务将保持强劲。该股仍被低估；然而，AMD 的风险/回报使其只能适度购买。如果你仍然想购买AMD，我建议通过Xilinx购买，以获得大约12%的购买折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Key Takeaway: I rate AMD a modest buy at $122 and Xilinx a buy at $185.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>要点：我认为 AMD 值得适度买入，价格为 122 美元，Xilinx 值得买入，价格为 185 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Here's What I Am Doing After Another Blowout Earnings<blockquote>AMD：这是我在再次盈利井喷后正在做的事情</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Here's What I Am Doing After Another Blowout Earnings<blockquote>AMD：这是我在再次盈利井喷后正在做的事情</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-02 15:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>AMD is no longer an \"underdog\", and future growth projections do not necessarily justify its current valuation. In this note, we review AMD's Q3 results and guidance.</li> <li>Furthermore, I provide a pro-forma valuation of AMD (+Xilinx). The easy money has been made in AMD over the last six years, and future returns may look very different.</li> <li>AMD is a decent buy at $122, however, potential investors should buy through Xilinx at $185 (a discounted proxy for AMD) (after Dr. Lisa Su's reassurances about the merger).</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55c4f8340ca053f249af481ee9a179\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD不再是“失败者”，未来的增长预测不一定能证明其当前的估值是合理的。在本说明中，我们回顾了 AMD 第三季度的业绩和指引。</li><li>此外，我提供了AMD（+Xilinx）的备考估值。过去六年来，AMD 一直在轻松赚钱，未来的回报可能会大不相同。</li><li>AMD 以 122 美元的价格买入是一个不错的选择，然而，潜在投资者应该通过 Xilinx 以 185 美元（AMD 的折扣价）的价格买入（在 Lisa Su 博士对合并做出保证之后）。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is probably one of the greatest turnaround stories ever, and investors have made incredible returns in this counter over the last six years. Under the leadership of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD has showcased tremendous business execution, and the company delivered yet another blowout quarter on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 可能是有史以来最伟大的扭亏为盈的故事之一，投资者在过去六年中在这个柜台上获得了令人难以置信的回报。在苏丽莎博士的领导下，AMD 展示了出色的业务执行力，该公司周二又实现了一个井喷的季度。</blockquote></p><p> As some of you may already know, I am an \"Intel (INTC) bull\"; however, I am not an \"AMD bear\" like some of the commenters in my recent articles have suggested. Today, I would like to explain my positioning in the semiconductor sector in some greater detail. First of all, we own Intel as a part of our dividend growth portfolio, which also consists of the likes of Broadcom (AVGO). Since AMD offers no dividend, it is unsuitable for BTM's DGI portfolio. On the other hand, AMD's risk/reward is keeping the stock out of our Goldilocks Zone (high growth) portfolio. Within this portfolio, we own Nvidia (NVDA) from a very low cost-basis; however, we are not adding at current valuations.</p><p><blockquote>你们中的一些人可能已经知道，我是一个“英特尔（INTC）多头”；然而，我并不像我最近文章中的一些评论者所说的那样是一个“AMD熊”。今天，我想更详细地解释我在半导体领域的定位。首先，我们拥有英特尔作为我们股息增长投资组合的一部分，该投资组合还包括博通 (AVGO) 等公司。由于 AMD 不提供股息，因此不适合 BTM 的 DGI 投资组合。另一方面，AMD 的风险/回报是将该股排除在我们的金发区（高增长）投资组合之外。在这个投资组合中，我们以非常低的成本持有 Nvidia (NVDA)；但是，我们不会按当前估值进行增加。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa59d7f65a7ba453d2c5e2ac474acb4d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, AMD's market cap stands at ~$150B, and it is quickly closing the gap on Intel, which is now valued at just ~$195B. Now, Intel does ~5x AMD's revenue, commands higher gross margins, and produces ~6x AMD's free cash flow. Considering these numbers, AMD seems expensive; however, growth is on AMD's side due to superior products, product roadmap, and business execution.</p><p><blockquote>如今，AMD 的市值约为 1500 亿美元，它正在迅速缩小与英特尔的差距，英特尔目前的估值仅为 1950 亿美元。现在，英特尔的收入是 AMD 的 5 倍，毛利率更高，自由现金流是 AMD 的 6 倍。考虑到这些数字，AMD似乎很贵；然而，由于卓越的产品、产品路线图和业务执行，增长站在AMD一边。</blockquote></p><p> In this note, we will briefly analyze AMD's Q3 report and formulate its valuation to see if this stock is a good long-term investment. Furthermore, we will explore a merger arbitrage play available in the AMD-Xilinx (XLNX) deal. So, let's get started.</p><p><blockquote>在本说明中，我们将简要分析AMD的第三季度报告，并制定其估值，看看这只股票是否是一个好的长期投资。此外，我们将探讨 AMD-Xilinx (XLNX) 交易中可用的合并套利策略。所以，让我们开始吧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reviewing AMD's Quarter And Forward Guidance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾 AMD 的季度和远期指引</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q3, AMD's revenue blew past analyst estimates to come in at $4.3B (up 54% y/y), and looking at the quarterly sales trend, it is fair to say that AMD's business is gaining momentum. Although the growth rates are decelerating due to tough comps from last year's PC boom, AMD's data center business is on fire and set to deliver greater numbers in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度，AMD 的收入超出了分析师的预期，达到 $4.3B（同比增长 54%），从季度销售趋势来看，可以公平地说 AMD 的业务正在获得动力。尽管由于去年 PC 繁荣带来的艰难竞争，增长率正在放缓，但 AMD 的数据中心业务正在蓬勃发展，并将在 2022 年及以后交付更多数据。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca687596d0fc2b068ae4f2084cc5235f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021 年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here are the highlights from each of AMD's business segments:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 AMD 各业务部门的亮点：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd4c75303205f05cd838394476d23de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa93460dcff118bdbe61dd980f59c07e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021 年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With its Ryzen, Radeon, and EPYC processors, AMD is winning market share across the CPU, GPU, and server (data center) markets. Over the last few years, AMD's products have been far superior to those of Intel's, and with a strong product roadmap, AMD looks good value for a greater chunk of the expanding semiconductor industry.</p><p><blockquote>凭借锐龙、镭龙和EPYC处理器，AMD正在CPU、GPU和服务器（数据中心）市场赢得市场份额。在过去的几年里，AMD 的产品远远优于英特尔的产品，凭借强大的产品路线图，AMD 看起来很有价值，可以在不断扩大的半导体行业中占据更大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> As the industry continues to grapple with supply shortages, AMD has focused its resources on higher-value chips. Naturally, AMD's gross margins have expanded significantly over the last few quarters. In Q3, AMD's gross margins improved by ~450 basis-points y/y to reach 48%. With a sharp rise in margins, AMD is delivering massive operating leverage, as evidenced by the ~111% y/y jump in operating income. As you can see below, AMD's operating margins have risen from 16% (Q3 2020) to 22% (Q3 2021). Overall, AMD's business is firing on all cylinders with rapid sales growth, massive margin expansion, and a big jump in profitability.</p><p><blockquote>随着该行业继续应对供应短缺问题，AMD 已将资源集中在价值更高的芯片上。当然，AMD 的毛利率在过去几个季度显着扩张。第三季度，AMD 的毛利率同比提高约 450 个基点，达到 48%。随着利润率的大幅上升，AMD 正在提供巨大的运营杠杆，经营利润同比增长约 111% 就证明了这一点。如下所示，AMD 的营业利润率已从 16%（2020 年第三季度）上升至 22%（2021 年第三季度）。总体而言，AMD 的业务正在全力以赴，销售快速增长，利润率大幅扩张，盈利能力大幅跃升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cc5504afd47983c25f2774e0570d4f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021 年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As it turns into a cash printing machine, AMD's balance sheet is turning into a fortress. At the end of Q3, AMD had cash balances of ~$3.6B with total debt of just ~0.3B. After teetering near bankruptcy at the start of the 2010s, it is fair to say that AMD has come leaps and bounds. Right now, AMD looks very well-positioned (from a financial and technological perspective) to win a more significant market share in a secular growth industry. With ample cash on its balance sheet, AMD used nearly all of its free cash flow on repurchasing shares as the company bought ~$750M worth of its own stock in Q3. In the future, we can expect these buybacks to become a routine affair.</p><p><blockquote>当它变成一台印钞机时，AMD的资产负债表正在变成一座堡垒。截至第三季度末，AMD 的现金余额约为 $3.6B，总债务仅为 $0.3B。在 2010 年代初濒临破产后，可以公平地说，AMD 已经取得了长足的进步。目前，AMD 看起来处于非常有利的位置（从财务和技术角度来看），可以在长期增长的行业中赢得更大的市场份额。由于资产负债表上现金充足，AMD 几乎将所有自由现金流用于回购股票，该公司在第三季度购买了价值约 7.5 亿美元的自有股票。未来，我们可以预期这些回购将成为例行公事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6e7cde8f920248271cf35fe9a25d17\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021 年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Q4, AMD is guiding for $4.4-4.6B in revenue on higher gross and operating margins of 49.5% and 25%, respectively. Hence, AMD's business momentum is likely to continue in the next quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 预计第四季度收入为 4.4-4.6B 美元，毛利率和营业利润率分别为 49.5% 和 25%。因此，AMD的业务势头可能会在下一季度继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb477f81eb4a7ad61c8bd412c2ec568\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021 年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When answering questions from an analyst on the earnings call, Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, said that the semiconductor shortages might end in 2022, and while competitive pressures are rising, she is confident in AMD's product roadmap. Furthermore, she affirmed that the demand environment is set to remain strong throughout 2022, with data center demand coming in hot, while the PC market is expected to remain flattish.</p><p><blockquote>AMD首席执行官苏丽珊博士在财报看涨期权上回答分析师提问时表示，半导体短缺可能会在2022年结束，虽然竞争压力不断增加，但她对AMD的产品路线图充满信心。此外，她确认，2022年全年需求环境将保持强劲，数据中心需求将火热，而个人电脑市场预计将保持平稳。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD's management stopped short of guiding for 2022, the company is likely to deliver rapid growth next year too (my estimate is ~25% y/y (tough comps)). With a strong leadership team at the helm, AMD is rapidly turning into a dominant semiconductor company. I am not convinced about AMD's ability to maintain its margins in 2022 due to growing expectations of a price war (and more competitive products) from Intel. Regardless, I see AMD as a secular growth stock with massive potential. With all of this information in mind, let us now attempt to find AMD's fair value and expected returns to see if it is a good investment.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 AMD 管理层没有给出 2022 年的指引，但该公司明年也可能实现快速增长（我的估计是同比增长约 25%（艰难的竞争））。在强大的领导团队掌舵下，AMD正在迅速转变为一家占主导地位的半导体公司。由于对英特尔价格战（以及更具竞争力的产品）的预期越来越大，我不相信 AMD 有能力在 2022 年保持利润率。无论如何，我认为 AMD 是一只具有巨大潜力的长期成长型股票。考虑到所有这些信息，让我们现在尝试找出 AMD 的公允价值和预期回报，看看它是否是一项不错的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD Stock's Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD 股票的公允价值和预期回报</b></blockquote></p><p> To determine AMD's fair value (including Xilinx), we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了确定 AMD（包括赛灵思）的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。以下是它需要的内容：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流被我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，该模型考虑了流通股变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们在十年结束时对未来增长前景进行估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和 10 年底的预计股价得出 CAGR。如果这比市场有足够的优势，我们就会投资。如果没有，我们等待更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 4, the model accounts for dividends.</li> </ul> <b>Assumptions:</b></p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤4中，模型考虑了股息。</li><b>假设：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2c8910a9bf6c76df79c4e529c306b4\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are the results:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结果如下：</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43cbdd6bbedd12d97187aee1a41535b3\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"733\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：洛杉矶史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, AMD is worth ~$147.5 per share, i.e., it is undervalued by ~17.24%. Now, let us analyze AMD's expected returns:</p><p><blockquote>如您所见，AMD 每股价值约 147.5 美元，即被低估约 17.24%。现在，让我们分析一下AMD的预期回报：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8289ded704fa9d728a0cc99a52d61d31\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"431\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：洛杉矶史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since AMD's expected return is equivalent to ~15% (our investment hurdle rate), it is only a modest buy at the current price. However, buying AMD via Xilinx could improve future returns, making it a worthy option. We will discuss this merger arbitrage play in just a moment, but before we do so, let's discuss something critical to our valuation.</p><p><blockquote>由于AMD的预期回报率相当于约15%（我们的投资门槛率），所以在当前价格下只是适度买入。然而，通过赛灵思收购 AMD 可以提高未来的回报，使其成为一个值得的选择。我们稍后将讨论这种合并套利游戏，但在此之前，让我们讨论一些对我们的估值至关重要的事情。</blockquote></p><p> The growth assumption of 15% CAGR from a base of $24B implies a 2031 revenue figure of $100B. If AMD fails to win a monopolistic market share (comparable to Intel's past dominance) over the next decade, these revenue growth targets may not be achieved. We must be cognizant of the fact that AMD is up against the likes of Nvidia, Apple (AAPL), Intel, ARM-based chip makers, and all other big-tech companies making their own chips in-house. Now, let's take a look at consensus analyst estimates for AMD's revenue growth rates:</p><p><blockquote>在24B美元的基础上，15%的CAGR增长假设意味着2031年的收入数字为100B美元。如果AMD未能在未来十年赢得垄断性的市场份额（堪比英特尔过去的统治地位），这些收入增长目标可能无法实现。我们必须认识到，AMD 面临的是英伟达、苹果 (AAPL)、英特尔、基于 ARM 的芯片制造商以及所有其他在内部制造自己芯片的大型科技公司。现在，让我们来看看分析师对 AMD 收入增长率的一致估计：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091912e1d573473e9e73c817553a210c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"489\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Earnings Estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha 盈利预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, AMD's growth rate is expected to decelerate significantly over the coming years. Now, I understand that Wall Street analysts are wrong most of the time, and I can envision a world where AMD does $100B in revenue every year. However, I don't think we have an ample margin of safety while investing in AMD due to aggressive growth projections priced into its stock.</p><p><blockquote>如您所见，AMD 的增长率预计将在未来几年大幅放缓。现在，我明白华尔街分析师大多数时候都是错误的，我可以想象一个 AMD 每年创造 100 亿美元收入的世界。然而，我认为我们在投资 AMD 时没有足够的安全边际，因为对其股票进行了激进的增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d673250c3933d2d52a7f602be131820\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD-Xilinx Deal Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD-赛灵思交易演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc077f3de38522b012a98d379e2724f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Investor Presentation August 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示文稿 2021 年 8 月</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the acquisition of Xilinx, AMD is expanding its total addressable market from ~80B to ~$110B. Currently, AMD's product portfolio is not as broad as Intel and Nvidia (AMD project's data center TAM for its products at just $45B, Intel and Nvidia have data center TAM's of ~$230B); however, this should be viewed as an opportunity for growth. With that being said, AMD's 3rd Gen EPYC processors (the fastest x86 server CPUs) are winning market share in the data center (still heavily dominated by Intel), and the company has a strong product roadmap for further enhancing its presence in high-performance computing, AI, and data center markets.</p><p><blockquote>通过收购赛灵思，AMD 正在将其总潜在市场从约 80B 扩展到约 1100 亿美元。目前，AMD的产品组合不如英特尔和英伟达广泛（AMD project的数据中心TAM仅为$45B，英特尔和英伟达的数据中心TAM约为$230B）；然而，这应该被视为增长的机会。话虽如此，AMD的第三代EPYC处理器（最快的x86服务器CPU）正在数据中心（仍由英特尔主导）赢得市场份额，该公司有一个强大的产品路线图，以进一步增强其在高性能计算、人工智能和数据中心市场的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22303a007195cbdaaa9d0c032f808011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f0e27628e9ffe614eeead78482d3ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15f62b8c21b28d66f525b49cf952feb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Investor Presentation August 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示文稿 2021 年 8 月</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the impending 2022 launches of Zen4 powered EPYC CPU processors and CDNA2-powered GPUs, AMD is set to maintain its product leadership over Intel, and capture more market share in the data center in 2022 and beyond. As we know, Intel is struggling with its manufacturing process, and a move to outsource advanced node manufacturing (to TSMC(NYSE:TSM)for Ponte Vecchio and a few other upcoming Intel products) is not enough to stop AMD's higher-performing, less power consuming products from winning market share (at least in the medium term). Hence, AMD can deliver another spectacular year of sales growth in 2022 (far better than what analyst estimates suggest).</p><p><blockquote>随着Zen4驱动的EPYC CPU处理器和CDNA2驱动的GPU即将于2022年推出，AMD将保持其对英特尔的产品领先地位，并在2022年及以后在数据中心占据更多市场份额。众所周知，英特尔的制造工艺正在苦苦挣扎，将先进节点制造外包（将 Ponte Vecchio 和其他一些即将推出的英特尔产品外包给台积电（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TSM））并不足以阻止 AMD 性能更高、功耗更低的产品赢得市场份额（至少在中期内）。因此，AMD 可以在 2022 年实现又一个惊人的销售增长（远远好于分析师的预期）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b572735984f930cb7497ffca7979b78b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Investor Presentation August 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示文稿 2021 年 8 月</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After years of solid execution, AMD has regained customer trust in the data center markets as evidenced by its recent partnerships with some of the largest cloud providers in the world. Under the exemplary leadership of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD can become a true heavyweight in the burgeoning semiconductor industry over the next decade and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>经过多年的稳健执行，AMD 在数据中心市场重新赢得了客户的信任，其最近与一些全球最大的云提供商的合作伙伴关系就证明了这一点。在苏丽莎博士的卓越领导下，AMD有望在未来十年及以后成为蓬勃发展的半导体行业中真正的重量级企业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD-Xilinx: Merger Arbitrage Play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD-赛灵思：合并套利游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, AMD's CEO, Dr. Lisa Su, reiterated the expectation of deal closure on the Xilinx acquisition by the end of this year. As you may know, AMD agreed to buy Xilinx in an all-stock deal, and each Xilinx stock will convert to 1.7234 shares of AMD. Due to market inefficiencies (or expectation of deal failure), investors can buy AMD via Xilinx's stock to avail of a massive discount. Here's how:</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，AMD 首席执行官 Lisa Su 博士重申了对 Xilinx 收购交易的预期。如您所知，AMD 同意以全股票交易的方式收购 Xilinx，每股 Xilinx 股票将转换为 1.7234 股 AMD 股票。由于市场效率低下（或交易失败的预期），投资者可以通过赛灵思的股票购买 AMD，以利用大幅折扣。方法如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dab83736090bcfe6741f8f790530a5a\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hence, investors looking to buy AMD can get a 12% discount by purchasing it via Xilinx. Furthermore, I think this is an excellent opportunity to establish a merger arbitrage trade - \"Buy '1x' Xilinx, Short '1.7234x' AMD\". With this trade, investors can pocket a 12% return in just two months (if the transaction closes as per the timeline provided by AMD's CEO).</p><p><blockquote>因此，希望购买AMD的投资者可以通过Xilinx购买获得12%的折扣。此外，我认为这是建立合并套利交易的绝佳机会——“买入‘1x’赛灵思，做空‘1.7234x’AMD”。通过这笔交易，投资者可以在短短两个月内获得 12% 的回报（如果交易按照 AMD 首席执行官提供的时间表完成）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD is performing exceptionally, and business will remain strong in the near term due to a strong demand persisting in a semiconductor supply crunch. The stock is still undervalued; however, AMD's risk/reward makes it only a modest buy. If you still want to buy AMD, I recommend buying it through Xilinx to avail of a ~12% discount on the purchase.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的表现非常出色，由于半导体供应紧缩期间需求强劲，短期内业务将保持强劲。该股仍被低估；然而，AMD 的风险/回报使其只能适度购买。如果你仍然想购买AMD，我建议通过Xilinx购买，以获得大约12%的购买折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Key Takeaway: I rate AMD a modest buy at $122 and Xilinx a buy at $185.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>要点：我认为 AMD 值得适度买入，价格为 122 美元，Xilinx 值得买入，价格为 185 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463798-amd-stock-after-another-blowout-earnings\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463798-amd-stock-after-another-blowout-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141215557","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD is no longer an \"underdog\", and future growth projections do not necessarily justify its current valuation. In this note, we review AMD's Q3 results and guidance.\nFurthermore, I provide a pro-forma valuation of AMD (+Xilinx). The easy money has been made in AMD over the last six years, and future returns may look very different.\nAMD is a decent buy at $122, however, potential investors should buy through Xilinx at $185 (a discounted proxy for AMD) (after Dr. Lisa Su's reassurances about the merger).\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) is probably one of the greatest turnaround stories ever, and investors have made incredible returns in this counter over the last six years. Under the leadership of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD has showcased tremendous business execution, and the company delivered yet another blowout quarter on Tuesday.\nAs some of you may already know, I am an \"Intel (INTC) bull\"; however, I am not an \"AMD bear\" like some of the commenters in my recent articles have suggested. Today, I would like to explain my positioning in the semiconductor sector in some greater detail. First of all, we own Intel as a part of our dividend growth portfolio, which also consists of the likes of Broadcom (AVGO). Since AMD offers no dividend, it is unsuitable for BTM's DGI portfolio. On the other hand, AMD's risk/reward is keeping the stock out of our Goldilocks Zone (high growth) portfolio. Within this portfolio, we own Nvidia (NVDA) from a very low cost-basis; however, we are not adding at current valuations.\nSource: YCharts\nToday, AMD's market cap stands at ~$150B, and it is quickly closing the gap on Intel, which is now valued at just ~$195B. Now, Intel does ~5x AMD's revenue, commands higher gross margins, and produces ~6x AMD's free cash flow. Considering these numbers, AMD seems expensive; however, growth is on AMD's side due to superior products, product roadmap, and business execution.\nIn this note, we will briefly analyze AMD's Q3 report and formulate its valuation to see if this stock is a good long-term investment. Furthermore, we will explore a merger arbitrage play available in the AMD-Xilinx (XLNX) deal. So, let's get started.\nReviewing AMD's Quarter And Forward Guidance\nIn Q3, AMD's revenue blew past analyst estimates to come in at $4.3B (up 54% y/y), and looking at the quarterly sales trend, it is fair to say that AMD's business is gaining momentum. Although the growth rates are decelerating due to tough comps from last year's PC boom, AMD's data center business is on fire and set to deliver greater numbers in 2022 and beyond.\nSource: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nHere are the highlights from each of AMD's business segments:\n\nSource: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nWith its Ryzen, Radeon, and EPYC processors, AMD is winning market share across the CPU, GPU, and server (data center) markets. Over the last few years, AMD's products have been far superior to those of Intel's, and with a strong product roadmap, AMD looks good value for a greater chunk of the expanding semiconductor industry.\nAs the industry continues to grapple with supply shortages, AMD has focused its resources on higher-value chips. Naturally, AMD's gross margins have expanded significantly over the last few quarters. In Q3, AMD's gross margins improved by ~450 basis-points y/y to reach 48%. With a sharp rise in margins, AMD is delivering massive operating leverage, as evidenced by the ~111% y/y jump in operating income. As you can see below, AMD's operating margins have risen from 16% (Q3 2020) to 22% (Q3 2021). Overall, AMD's business is firing on all cylinders with rapid sales growth, massive margin expansion, and a big jump in profitability.\nSource: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nAs it turns into a cash printing machine, AMD's balance sheet is turning into a fortress. At the end of Q3, AMD had cash balances of ~$3.6B with total debt of just ~0.3B. After teetering near bankruptcy at the start of the 2010s, it is fair to say that AMD has come leaps and bounds. Right now, AMD looks very well-positioned (from a financial and technological perspective) to win a more significant market share in a secular growth industry. With ample cash on its balance sheet, AMD used nearly all of its free cash flow on repurchasing shares as the company bought ~$750M worth of its own stock in Q3. In the future, we can expect these buybacks to become a routine affair.\nSource: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nFor Q4, AMD is guiding for $4.4-4.6B in revenue on higher gross and operating margins of 49.5% and 25%, respectively. Hence, AMD's business momentum is likely to continue in the next quarter.\nSource: AMD Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nWhen answering questions from an analyst on the earnings call, Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, said that the semiconductor shortages might end in 2022, and while competitive pressures are rising, she is confident in AMD's product roadmap. Furthermore, she affirmed that the demand environment is set to remain strong throughout 2022, with data center demand coming in hot, while the PC market is expected to remain flattish.\nAlthough AMD's management stopped short of guiding for 2022, the company is likely to deliver rapid growth next year too (my estimate is ~25% y/y (tough comps)). With a strong leadership team at the helm, AMD is rapidly turning into a dominant semiconductor company. I am not convinced about AMD's ability to maintain its margins in 2022 due to growing expectations of a price war (and more competitive products) from Intel. Regardless, I see AMD as a secular growth stock with massive potential. With all of this information in mind, let us now attempt to find AMD's fair value and expected returns to see if it is a good investment.\nAMD Stock's Fair Value And Expected Returns\nTo determine AMD's fair value (including Xilinx), we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\nIn step 4, the model accounts for dividends.\n\nAssumptions:\n\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs you can see, AMD is worth ~$147.5 per share, i.e., it is undervalued by ~17.24%. Now, let us analyze AMD's expected returns:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nSince AMD's expected return is equivalent to ~15% (our investment hurdle rate), it is only a modest buy at the current price. However, buying AMD via Xilinx could improve future returns, making it a worthy option. We will discuss this merger arbitrage play in just a moment, but before we do so, let's discuss something critical to our valuation.\nThe growth assumption of 15% CAGR from a base of $24B implies a 2031 revenue figure of $100B. If AMD fails to win a monopolistic market share (comparable to Intel's past dominance) over the next decade, these revenue growth targets may not be achieved. We must be cognizant of the fact that AMD is up against the likes of Nvidia, Apple (AAPL), Intel, ARM-based chip makers, and all other big-tech companies making their own chips in-house. Now, let's take a look at consensus analyst estimates for AMD's revenue growth rates:\nSource: Seeking Alpha Earnings Estimates\nAs you can see, AMD's growth rate is expected to decelerate significantly over the coming years. Now, I understand that Wall Street analysts are wrong most of the time, and I can envision a world where AMD does $100B in revenue every year. However, I don't think we have an ample margin of safety while investing in AMD due to aggressive growth projections priced into its stock.\nSource: AMD-Xilinx Deal Presentation\nSource: AMD Investor Presentation August 2021\nWith the acquisition of Xilinx, AMD is expanding its total addressable market from ~80B to ~$110B. Currently, AMD's product portfolio is not as broad as Intel and Nvidia (AMD project's data center TAM for its products at just $45B, Intel and Nvidia have data center TAM's of ~$230B); however, this should be viewed as an opportunity for growth. With that being said, AMD's 3rd Gen EPYC processors (the fastest x86 server CPUs) are winning market share in the data center (still heavily dominated by Intel), and the company has a strong product roadmap for further enhancing its presence in high-performance computing, AI, and data center markets.\n\nSource: AMD Investor Presentation August 2021\nWith the impending 2022 launches of Zen4 powered EPYC CPU processors and CDNA2-powered GPUs, AMD is set to maintain its product leadership over Intel, and capture more market share in the data center in 2022 and beyond. As we know, Intel is struggling with its manufacturing process, and a move to outsource advanced node manufacturing (to TSMC(NYSE:TSM)for Ponte Vecchio and a few other upcoming Intel products) is not enough to stop AMD's higher-performing, less power consuming products from winning market share (at least in the medium term). Hence, AMD can deliver another spectacular year of sales growth in 2022 (far better than what analyst estimates suggest).\nSource: AMD Investor Presentation August 2021\nAfter years of solid execution, AMD has regained customer trust in the data center markets as evidenced by its recent partnerships with some of the largest cloud providers in the world. Under the exemplary leadership of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD can become a true heavyweight in the burgeoning semiconductor industry over the next decade and beyond.\nAMD-Xilinx: Merger Arbitrage Play\nDuring the earnings call, AMD's CEO, Dr. Lisa Su, reiterated the expectation of deal closure on the Xilinx acquisition by the end of this year. As you may know, AMD agreed to buy Xilinx in an all-stock deal, and each Xilinx stock will convert to 1.7234 shares of AMD. Due to market inefficiencies (or expectation of deal failure), investors can buy AMD via Xilinx's stock to avail of a massive discount. Here's how:\nSource: Author\nHence, investors looking to buy AMD can get a 12% discount by purchasing it via Xilinx. Furthermore, I think this is an excellent opportunity to establish a merger arbitrage trade - \"Buy '1x' Xilinx, Short '1.7234x' AMD\". With this trade, investors can pocket a 12% return in just two months (if the transaction closes as per the timeline provided by AMD's CEO).\nConcluding Thoughts\nAMD is performing exceptionally, and business will remain strong in the near term due to a strong demand persisting in a semiconductor supply crunch. The stock is still undervalued; however, AMD's risk/reward makes it only a modest buy. If you still want to buy AMD, I recommend buying it through Xilinx to avail of a ~12% discount on the purchase.\nKey Takeaway: I rate AMD a modest buy at $122 and Xilinx a buy at $185.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1299,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/843733743"}
精彩评论