BlissNHappy
2021-11-04
Not exactly
Zillow Stops Homebuying: How Will This Impact Their Stock Forecast?<blockquote>Zillow 停止购房：这将如何影响他们的股票预测？</blockquote>
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(Z) is a digital real estate company which operates in three divisions. First, it operates its Internet, Media, and Technology (IMT) segment which produces revenue through Premier Agent or advertising revenues from agents. Second, the mortgage segment makes money by performing loan originations and reselling mortgages. The third segment, and largest segment by revenue, is the Homes segment, commonly known as Zillow Offers. In this segment the company purchases, fixes, and resells residential real estate. Zillow announced it will be winding this segment down completely during their Q3 earnings release. The wind-down includes an asset write-down of over $300M as well.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow Group，Inc.（Z）是一家数字房地产公司，分为三个部门。首先，它运营其互联网、媒体和技术 (IMT) 部门，该部门通过 Premier Agent 或代理商的广告收入产生收入。其次，抵押贷款部门通过发放贷款和转售抵押贷款来赚钱。第三个细分市场，也是收入最大的细分市场，是家庭细分市场，通常称为 Zillow Offers。在这一部门，该公司购买、修复和转售住宅房地产。Zillow 宣布将在第三季度财报发布期间完全缩减该细分市场。此次缩减还包括超过 3 亿美元的资产减记。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, how did we get here?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，我们是怎么到这里的？</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-October, Zillow paused this segment through at least the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>10 月中旬，Zillow 将该细分市场暂停至少到 2021 年底。</blockquote></p><p> We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time...\" Company Spokesman per Seeking Alpha, courtesy Bloomberg. This news had both positive and negative elements. First, on the positive side, it is obvious that the iBuying program is immensely popular. Zillow reported that 1% of homes in Q2 2021 used some type of iBuying program. This may not seem significant at just 1%, however considering the United States home sales market is expected to reach $2.5 <i>trillion</i> in 2021, this is a very big number indeed. I also considered it positive that Zillow recognized that they were becoming overextended and paused, rather than risking serious systemic issues that would hurt customers and damage their reputation.</p><p><blockquote>我们的 Zillow Offers 业务已超出运营能力，目前不会签订额外的购房合同……”Seeking Alpha 公司发言人，由彭博社提供。这个消息既有积极的因素，也有消极的因素。首先，从积极的一面来看，很明显iBuying计划非常受欢迎。Zillow报告称，2021年Q2有1%的家庭使用了某种类型的iBuying计划。仅为1%，这似乎并不重要，但考虑到美国房屋销售市场预计将达到2.5美元<i>万亿</i>在2021年，这确实是一个非常大的数字。我还认为，Zillow认识到他们正在变得过度扩张和暂停，而不是冒着严重的系统性问题的风险，从而伤害客户并损害他们的声誉，这是积极的。</blockquote></p><p> This has clear implications for competitors like Redfin (RDFN) and Opendoor (OPEN) to accumulate market share. The iBuying process is popular, but it must be managed correctly. I have seen no indication that they will cease their programs.</p><p><blockquote>这对于 Redfin (RDFN) 和 Opendoor (OPEN) 等竞争对手积累市场份额具有明显的影响。iBuying流程很受欢迎，但必须正确管理。我没有看到任何迹象表明他们会停止他们的项目。</blockquote></p><p> Further, this could be a reflection that the red-hot market is cooling. Zillow may have many more sellers in line than buyers. While the secular demand trends are expected to be positive, as the country is short millions of homes, the short-term could get bumpy. Two days prior to this announcement, Redfin reported a drop in both homes sales, which dropped 9%, and new listings, which fell 5%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这可能反映出炙手可热的市场正在降温。Zillow 排队的卖家可能比买家多得多。虽然长期需求趋势预计将是积极的，但由于该国缺少数百万套住房，短期内可能会变得坎坷。在此公告发布前两天，Redfin 报告称房屋销售量均下降，下降了 9%，新挂牌量下降了 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Other reasons for the pause, included macroeconomic issues that many businesses are currently facing. These include supply and labor shortages that have extended the process of reselling a home.</p><p><blockquote>暂停的其他原因包括许多企业目前面临的宏观经济问题。其中包括供应和劳动力短缺，这延长了转售房屋的过程。</blockquote></p><p> We're operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces... \"Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory,\" Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow CEO, in a statement. Because of this, higher costs of renovations could significantly tighten margins. In fact, more than half of the homes recently purchased may be under water, as I will discuss below.</p><p><blockquote>在竞争激烈的房地产市场中，我们在劳动力和供应受限的经济中运营，尤其是在建筑、翻新和封闭空间方面……Zillow 首席执行官杰里米·瓦克斯曼 (Jeremy Wacksman) 在一份声明中表示：“暂停新合同将使我们能够专注于已经与我们签订合同的卖家以及我们当前的房屋库存。”正因为如此，更高的装修成本可能会大大收紧利润率。事实上，最近购买的房屋中有一半以上可能被水淹没，我将在下面讨论。</blockquote></p><p> Home prices had been on fire for the first half of this year when Zillow was a buyer. Now that the market is taking a breather, these homes are waiting for buyers and the prices are coming down. This is a serious risk that every iBuying company will face. And the risk is structural. Shown below, prices have inched down ever so slightly from the red-hot summer months. It is worrisome that Zillow has purchased in the summer, while prices were highest, and is now selling in the fall when the kids are back in school and the market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>今年上半年，当 Zillow 还是买家时，房价一直在飙升。现在市场正在喘口气，这些房子正在等待买家，价格正在下降。这是每个iBuying公司都会面临的严重风险。风险是结构性的。如下图所示，与炎热的夏季相比，价格略有下降。令人担忧的是，Zillow在夏季购买，当时价格最高，现在在秋季孩子们回到学校，市场放缓时出售。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e59a7c8a0c8cf3531ea1972a7a8fd3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow 股价</b></blockquote></p><p> This news caused nervous investors to accelerate the downtrend in the stock, fearing a structural difficulty that could linger. The stock fell nearly 10% total in the days around the announcement.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息导致紧张的投资者加速了该股的下跌趋势，担心结构性困难可能会持续存在。在公告发布前后的几天里，该股总共下跌了近 10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a78debfc71d8aac0b2eaeaf304fe5eb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, cooler heads prevailed and the stock recovered somewhat thanks to a bullish hedge fund call which I discuss below. It is still stuck in a persistent downward trend since earlier this year, as shown below in the YTD chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，冷静的头脑占了上风，由于看涨的对冲基金看涨期权，该股有所回升，我将在下面讨论。自今年早些时候以来，它仍陷入持续下降趋势，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab979080dfdee8a0875705807f5c89b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One positive note for the stock is the interest from hedge fund manager Gil Simon of SoMa Equity Partners who recommended the stock and sees a \"compelling\" long-term opportunity. As the stock price has been cut in half since February 2021 it is difficult not to see it as oversold. Especially as certain metrics begin to resemble those from before the pandemic. This bullish call was made after the \"pause\" announcement, but before the \"wind down\" announcement.</p><p><blockquote>该股的一个积极因素是 SoMa Equity Partners 的对冲基金经理吉尔·西蒙 (Gil Simon) 对该股表现出了兴趣，他推荐了该股，并认为这是一个“引人注目”的长期机会。由于股价自 2021 年 2 月以来已减半，因此很难不将其视为超卖。尤其是当某些指标开始类似于疫情之前的指标时。这一看涨看涨期权是在“暂停”公告之后，但在“缩减”公告之前做出的。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, not all analysts were or are bullish. Bank of America cut its price target from $100 to $85 on October 28, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，并非所有分析师都看好或正在看好。美国银行于 2021 年 10 月 28 日将目标价从 100 美元下调至 85 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to start out November on a sour note, a KeyBanc analyst pointed to a study done by the firm that shows well over half the home scurrently listed are selling for<i>less</i>than the purchase price. This led to another selloff of more than 10% to open the month of November, pictured below. This looked to confirm some of the worst fears when the pause was implemented.</p><p><blockquote>然后，11 月份伊始，KeyBanc 的一位分析师指出，该公司进行的一项研究显示，目前上市的房屋中有一半以上的售价为<i>低于</i>比购买价格高。这导致11月份开盘时又出现了超过10%的抛售，如下图所示。这似乎证实了暂停实施时一些最糟糕的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/859acfe9ed5bc2583e62ed965984227f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow 股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 results are almost an afterthought at this point. There are some positives in the release, however. The IMT segment posted impressive revenue and EBITDA figures. The segment has grown revenues at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 15% since 2018, or 52% total. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment has grown at a CAGR over 50% during this time and reached $836M for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This will be the key to success moving forward. Zillow also has the opportunity to focus on profitability moving forward rather than growth at any cost. The IMT segment is generally profitable, while the homebuying segment has been unprofitable historically. Mortgages have profit potential as well, having posted positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2021, albeit only $5M. It remains to be seen exactly how Zillow will move forward, but a focus on becoming cash-flow and EBITDA positive overall and the core business would be wise.</p><p><blockquote>目前第三季度的业绩几乎是事后才想到的。然而，这个版本也有一些积极的方面。IMT部门公布了令人印象深刻的收入和EBITDA数据。自2018年以来，该部门的收入复合年增长率（CAGR）超过15%，总计52%。在此期间，该细分市场的调整后 EBITDA 复合年增长率超过 50%，在截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日的过去 12 个月中达到 8.36 亿美元。这将是成功前进的关键。Zillow 还有机会不惜一切代价专注于未来的盈利能力，而不是增长。IMT 部门通常是盈利的，而购房部门历来是无利可图的。抵押贷款也有利润潜力，2021 年第三季度调整后 EBITDA 为正，尽管只有 500 万美元。Zillow 究竟将如何前进还有待观察，但专注于实现整体现金流和 EBITDA 以及核心业务的正增长将是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Zillow Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow 股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts have a gigantic spread in opinion on Zillow. Some have price targets at $145 while others have cut to just $85. The average target, according to Seeking Alpha's Wall St. Rating center is $98.50. There is much uncertainty after the announcement of the wind-down and we will likely see significant adjustments downward in the next several days.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对 Zillow 的看法差异很大。一些公司的目标价为 145 美元，而另一些则降至 85 美元。根据 Seeking Alpha 华尔街评级中心的数据，平均目标为 98.50 美元。宣布缩减后存在很多不确定性，我们可能会在未来几天看到大幅下调。</blockquote></p><p> This uncertainty may bring about an opportunity to invest while the stock is heavily beaten down, but the best opportunity is likely not today. There is a real danger that there is more bad news to come. The stock will also need to be rerated by analysts and the news digested by Wall Street. At this time Zillow is far too risky to initiate a position.</p><p><blockquote>这种不确定性可能会在股票遭受重创时带来投资机会，但最好的机会可能不是今天。确实有更多坏消息即将到来的危险。该股还需要分析师和华尔街消化的消息进行重新评估。目前，Zillow 启动头寸风险太大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow Stops Homebuying: How Will This Impact Their Stock Forecast?<blockquote>Zillow 停止购房：这将如何影响他们的股票预测？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow Stops Homebuying: How Will This Impact Their Stock Forecast?<blockquote>Zillow 停止购房：这将如何影响他们的股票预测？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Zillow had paused, and now will completely wind down, home buying with the division terminating over the next few quarters.</li> <li>There is evidence of a slowing housing market and Zillow is reportedly offloading homes below cost and will take a significant asset write-down.</li> <li>Zillow's stock has been in a downward cycle since February of this year, and this shows no signs of slowing.</li> <li>The IMT segment posted positive Q3 results, which were obviously overshadowed by the news above.</li> <li>How do these moving parts impact the company's prospects?</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db785603fd1fe96aa3ee17c4196b74dd\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Xacto/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着该部门在未来几个季度内终止，Zillow 已经暂停并将完全停止购房。</li><li>有证据表明房地产市场正在放缓，据报道，Zillow 正在以低于成本的价格出售房屋，并将进行大幅资产减记。</li><li>Zillow的股票自今年2月以来一直处于下行周期，而且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>IMT 部门公布了积极的第三季度业绩，但这显然被上述消息所掩盖。</li><li>这些移动部件如何影响公司的前景？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Xacto/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Did Zillow Stop Home Buying?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么Zillow停止买房？</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) is a digital real estate company which operates in three divisions. First, it operates its Internet, Media, and Technology (IMT) segment which produces revenue through Premier Agent or advertising revenues from agents. Second, the mortgage segment makes money by performing loan originations and reselling mortgages. The third segment, and largest segment by revenue, is the Homes segment, commonly known as Zillow Offers. In this segment the company purchases, fixes, and resells residential real estate. Zillow announced it will be winding this segment down completely during their Q3 earnings release. The wind-down includes an asset write-down of over $300M as well.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow Group，Inc.（Z）是一家数字房地产公司，分为三个部门。首先，它运营其互联网、媒体和技术 (IMT) 部门，该部门通过 Premier Agent 或代理商的广告收入产生收入。其次，抵押贷款部门通过发放贷款和转售抵押贷款来赚钱。第三个细分市场，也是收入最大的细分市场，是家庭细分市场，通常称为 Zillow Offers。在这一部门，该公司购买、修复和转售住宅房地产。Zillow 宣布将在第三季度财报发布期间完全缩减该细分市场。此次缩减还包括超过 3 亿美元的资产减记。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, how did we get here?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，我们是怎么到这里的？</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-October, Zillow paused this segment through at least the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>10 月中旬，Zillow 将该细分市场暂停至少到 2021 年底。</blockquote></p><p> We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time...\" Company Spokesman per Seeking Alpha, courtesy Bloomberg. This news had both positive and negative elements. First, on the positive side, it is obvious that the iBuying program is immensely popular. Zillow reported that 1% of homes in Q2 2021 used some type of iBuying program. This may not seem significant at just 1%, however considering the United States home sales market is expected to reach $2.5 <i>trillion</i> in 2021, this is a very big number indeed. I also considered it positive that Zillow recognized that they were becoming overextended and paused, rather than risking serious systemic issues that would hurt customers and damage their reputation.</p><p><blockquote>我们的 Zillow Offers 业务已超出运营能力，目前不会签订额外的购房合同……”Seeking Alpha 公司发言人，由彭博社提供。这个消息既有积极的因素，也有消极的因素。首先，从积极的一面来看，很明显iBuying计划非常受欢迎。Zillow报告称，2021年Q2有1%的家庭使用了某种类型的iBuying计划。仅为1%，这似乎并不重要，但考虑到美国房屋销售市场预计将达到2.5美元<i>万亿</i>在2021年，这确实是一个非常大的数字。我还认为，Zillow认识到他们正在变得过度扩张和暂停，而不是冒着严重的系统性问题的风险，从而伤害客户并损害他们的声誉，这是积极的。</blockquote></p><p> This has clear implications for competitors like Redfin (RDFN) and Opendoor (OPEN) to accumulate market share. The iBuying process is popular, but it must be managed correctly. I have seen no indication that they will cease their programs.</p><p><blockquote>这对于 Redfin (RDFN) 和 Opendoor (OPEN) 等竞争对手积累市场份额具有明显的影响。iBuying流程很受欢迎，但必须正确管理。我没有看到任何迹象表明他们会停止他们的项目。</blockquote></p><p> Further, this could be a reflection that the red-hot market is cooling. Zillow may have many more sellers in line than buyers. While the secular demand trends are expected to be positive, as the country is short millions of homes, the short-term could get bumpy. Two days prior to this announcement, Redfin reported a drop in both homes sales, which dropped 9%, and new listings, which fell 5%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这可能反映出炙手可热的市场正在降温。Zillow 排队的卖家可能比买家多得多。虽然长期需求趋势预计将是积极的，但由于该国缺少数百万套住房，短期内可能会变得坎坷。在此公告发布前两天，Redfin 报告称房屋销售量均下降，下降了 9%，新挂牌量下降了 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Other reasons for the pause, included macroeconomic issues that many businesses are currently facing. These include supply and labor shortages that have extended the process of reselling a home.</p><p><blockquote>暂停的其他原因包括许多企业目前面临的宏观经济问题。其中包括供应和劳动力短缺，这延长了转售房屋的过程。</blockquote></p><p> We're operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces... \"Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory,\" Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow CEO, in a statement. Because of this, higher costs of renovations could significantly tighten margins. In fact, more than half of the homes recently purchased may be under water, as I will discuss below.</p><p><blockquote>在竞争激烈的房地产市场中，我们在劳动力和供应受限的经济中运营，尤其是在建筑、翻新和封闭空间方面……Zillow 首席执行官杰里米·瓦克斯曼 (Jeremy Wacksman) 在一份声明中表示：“暂停新合同将使我们能够专注于已经与我们签订合同的卖家以及我们当前的房屋库存。”正因为如此，更高的装修成本可能会大大收紧利润率。事实上，最近购买的房屋中有一半以上可能被水淹没，我将在下面讨论。</blockquote></p><p> Home prices had been on fire for the first half of this year when Zillow was a buyer. Now that the market is taking a breather, these homes are waiting for buyers and the prices are coming down. This is a serious risk that every iBuying company will face. And the risk is structural. Shown below, prices have inched down ever so slightly from the red-hot summer months. It is worrisome that Zillow has purchased in the summer, while prices were highest, and is now selling in the fall when the kids are back in school and the market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>今年上半年，当 Zillow 还是买家时，房价一直在飙升。现在市场正在喘口气，这些房子正在等待买家，价格正在下降。这是每个iBuying公司都会面临的严重风险。风险是结构性的。如下图所示，与炎热的夏季相比，价格略有下降。令人担忧的是，Zillow在夏季购买，当时价格最高，现在在秋季孩子们回到学校，市场放缓时出售。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e59a7c8a0c8cf3531ea1972a7a8fd3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow 股价</b></blockquote></p><p> This news caused nervous investors to accelerate the downtrend in the stock, fearing a structural difficulty that could linger. The stock fell nearly 10% total in the days around the announcement.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息导致紧张的投资者加速了该股的下跌趋势，担心结构性困难可能会持续存在。在公告发布前后的几天里，该股总共下跌了近 10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a78debfc71d8aac0b2eaeaf304fe5eb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, cooler heads prevailed and the stock recovered somewhat thanks to a bullish hedge fund call which I discuss below. It is still stuck in a persistent downward trend since earlier this year, as shown below in the YTD chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，冷静的头脑占了上风，由于看涨的对冲基金看涨期权，该股有所回升，我将在下面讨论。自今年早些时候以来，它仍陷入持续下降趋势，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab979080dfdee8a0875705807f5c89b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One positive note for the stock is the interest from hedge fund manager Gil Simon of SoMa Equity Partners who recommended the stock and sees a \"compelling\" long-term opportunity. As the stock price has been cut in half since February 2021 it is difficult not to see it as oversold. Especially as certain metrics begin to resemble those from before the pandemic. This bullish call was made after the \"pause\" announcement, but before the \"wind down\" announcement.</p><p><blockquote>该股的一个积极因素是 SoMa Equity Partners 的对冲基金经理吉尔·西蒙 (Gil Simon) 对该股表现出了兴趣，他推荐了该股，并认为这是一个“引人注目”的长期机会。由于股价自 2021 年 2 月以来已减半，因此很难不将其视为超卖。尤其是当某些指标开始类似于疫情之前的指标时。这一看涨看涨期权是在“暂停”公告之后，但在“缩减”公告之前做出的。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, not all analysts were or are bullish. Bank of America cut its price target from $100 to $85 on October 28, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，并非所有分析师都看好或正在看好。美国银行于 2021 年 10 月 28 日将目标价从 100 美元下调至 85 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to start out November on a sour note, a KeyBanc analyst pointed to a study done by the firm that shows well over half the home scurrently listed are selling for<i>less</i>than the purchase price. This led to another selloff of more than 10% to open the month of November, pictured below. This looked to confirm some of the worst fears when the pause was implemented.</p><p><blockquote>然后，11 月份伊始，KeyBanc 的一位分析师指出，该公司进行的一项研究显示，目前上市的房屋中有一半以上的售价为<i>低于</i>比购买价格高。这导致11月份开盘时又出现了超过10%的抛售，如下图所示。这似乎证实了暂停实施时一些最糟糕的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/859acfe9ed5bc2583e62ed965984227f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow 股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 results are almost an afterthought at this point. There are some positives in the release, however. The IMT segment posted impressive revenue and EBITDA figures. The segment has grown revenues at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 15% since 2018, or 52% total. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment has grown at a CAGR over 50% during this time and reached $836M for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This will be the key to success moving forward. Zillow also has the opportunity to focus on profitability moving forward rather than growth at any cost. The IMT segment is generally profitable, while the homebuying segment has been unprofitable historically. Mortgages have profit potential as well, having posted positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2021, albeit only $5M. It remains to be seen exactly how Zillow will move forward, but a focus on becoming cash-flow and EBITDA positive overall and the core business would be wise.</p><p><blockquote>目前第三季度的业绩几乎是事后才想到的。然而，这个版本也有一些积极的方面。IMT部门公布了令人印象深刻的收入和EBITDA数据。自2018年以来，该部门的收入复合年增长率（CAGR）超过15%，总计52%。在此期间，该细分市场的调整后 EBITDA 复合年增长率超过 50%，在截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日的过去 12 个月中达到 8.36 亿美元。这将是成功前进的关键。Zillow 还有机会不惜一切代价专注于未来的盈利能力，而不是增长。IMT 部门通常是盈利的，而购房部门历来是无利可图的。抵押贷款也有利润潜力，2021 年第三季度调整后 EBITDA 为正，尽管只有 500 万美元。Zillow 究竟将如何前进还有待观察，但专注于实现整体现金流和 EBITDA 以及核心业务的正增长将是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Zillow Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow 股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts have a gigantic spread in opinion on Zillow. Some have price targets at $145 while others have cut to just $85. The average target, according to Seeking Alpha's Wall St. Rating center is $98.50. There is much uncertainty after the announcement of the wind-down and we will likely see significant adjustments downward in the next several days.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对 Zillow 的看法差异很大。一些公司的目标价为 145 美元，而另一些则降至 85 美元。根据 Seeking Alpha 华尔街评级中心的数据，平均目标为 98.50 美元。宣布缩减后存在很多不确定性，我们可能会在未来几天看到大幅下调。</blockquote></p><p> This uncertainty may bring about an opportunity to invest while the stock is heavily beaten down, but the best opportunity is likely not today. There is a real danger that there is more bad news to come. The stock will also need to be rerated by analysts and the news digested by Wall Street. At this time Zillow is far too risky to initiate a position.</p><p><blockquote>这种不确定性可能会在股票遭受重创时带来投资机会，但最好的机会可能不是今天。确实有更多坏消息即将到来的危险。该股还需要分析师和华尔街消化的消息进行重新评估。目前，Zillow 启动头寸风险太大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464868-zilllow-stops-homebuying-stock-forecast\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow","ZG":"Zillow Class A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464868-zilllow-stops-homebuying-stock-forecast","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196366330","content_text":"Summary\n\nZillow had paused, and now will completely wind down, home buying with the division terminating over the next few quarters.\nThere is evidence of a slowing housing market and Zillow is reportedly offloading homes below cost and will take a significant asset write-down.\nZillow's stock has been in a downward cycle since February of this year, and this shows no signs of slowing.\nThe IMT segment posted positive Q3 results, which were obviously overshadowed by the news above.\nHow do these moving parts impact the company's prospects?\n\nXacto/E+ via Getty Images\nWhy Did Zillow Stop Home Buying?\nZillow Group, Inc. (Z) is a digital real estate company which operates in three divisions. First, it operates its Internet, Media, and Technology (IMT) segment which produces revenue through Premier Agent or advertising revenues from agents. Second, the mortgage segment makes money by performing loan originations and reselling mortgages. The third segment, and largest segment by revenue, is the Homes segment, commonly known as Zillow Offers. In this segment the company purchases, fixes, and resells residential real estate. Zillow announced it will be winding this segment down completely during their Q3 earnings release. The wind-down includes an asset write-down of over $300M as well.\nSo, how did we get here?\nIn mid-October, Zillow paused this segment through at least the end of 2021.\n\n We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time...\"\n\n\n Company Spokesman per Seeking Alpha, courtesy Bloomberg.\n\nThis news had both positive and negative elements. First, on the positive side, it is obvious that the iBuying program is immensely popular. Zillow reported that 1% of homes in Q2 2021 used some type of iBuying program. This may not seem significant at just 1%, however considering the United States home sales market is expected to reach $2.5 trillion in 2021, this is a very big number indeed. I also considered it positive that Zillow recognized that they were becoming overextended and paused, rather than risking serious systemic issues that would hurt customers and damage their reputation.\nThis has clear implications for competitors like Redfin (RDFN) and Opendoor (OPEN) to accumulate market share. The iBuying process is popular, but it must be managed correctly. I have seen no indication that they will cease their programs.\nFurther, this could be a reflection that the red-hot market is cooling. Zillow may have many more sellers in line than buyers. While the secular demand trends are expected to be positive, as the country is short millions of homes, the short-term could get bumpy. Two days prior to this announcement, Redfin reported a drop in both homes sales, which dropped 9%, and new listings, which fell 5%.\nOther reasons for the pause, included macroeconomic issues that many businesses are currently facing. These include supply and labor shortages that have extended the process of reselling a home.\n\n We're operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces...\n\n\n \"Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory,\"\n\n\n Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow CEO, in a statement.\n\nBecause of this, higher costs of renovations could significantly tighten margins. In fact, more than half of the homes recently purchased may be under water, as I will discuss below.\nHome prices had been on fire for the first half of this year when Zillow was a buyer. Now that the market is taking a breather, these homes are waiting for buyers and the prices are coming down. This is a serious risk that every iBuying company will face. And the risk is structural. Shown below, prices have inched down ever so slightly from the red-hot summer months. It is worrisome that Zillow has purchased in the summer, while prices were highest, and is now selling in the fall when the kids are back in school and the market has slowed.\nData by YCharts\nZillow Stock Price\nThis news caused nervous investors to accelerate the downtrend in the stock, fearing a structural difficulty that could linger. The stock fell nearly 10% total in the days around the announcement.\nData by YCharts\nHowever, cooler heads prevailed and the stock recovered somewhat thanks to a bullish hedge fund call which I discuss below. It is still stuck in a persistent downward trend since earlier this year, as shown below in the YTD chart.\nData by YCharts\nOne positive note for the stock is the interest from hedge fund manager Gil Simon of SoMa Equity Partners who recommended the stock and sees a \"compelling\" long-term opportunity. As the stock price has been cut in half since February 2021 it is difficult not to see it as oversold. Especially as certain metrics begin to resemble those from before the pandemic. This bullish call was made after the \"pause\" announcement, but before the \"wind down\" announcement.\nAt the same time, not all analysts were or are bullish. Bank of America cut its price target from $100 to $85 on October 28, 2021.\nThen, to start out November on a sour note, a KeyBanc analyst pointed to a study done by the firm that shows well over half the home scurrently listed are selling forlessthan the purchase price. This led to another selloff of more than 10% to open the month of November, pictured below. This looked to confirm some of the worst fears when the pause was implemented.\nData by YCharts\nZillow Stock Forecast\nQ3 results are almost an afterthought at this point. There are some positives in the release, however. The IMT segment posted impressive revenue and EBITDA figures. The segment has grown revenues at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 15% since 2018, or 52% total. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment has grown at a CAGR over 50% during this time and reached $836M for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This will be the key to success moving forward. Zillow also has the opportunity to focus on profitability moving forward rather than growth at any cost. The IMT segment is generally profitable, while the homebuying segment has been unprofitable historically. Mortgages have profit potential as well, having posted positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2021, albeit only $5M. It remains to be seen exactly how Zillow will move forward, but a focus on becoming cash-flow and EBITDA positive overall and the core business would be wise.\nIs Zillow Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?\nAnalysts have a gigantic spread in opinion on Zillow. Some have price targets at $145 while others have cut to just $85. The average target, according to Seeking Alpha's Wall St. Rating center is $98.50. There is much uncertainty after the announcement of the wind-down and we will likely see significant adjustments downward in the next several days.\nThis uncertainty may bring about an opportunity to invest while the stock is heavily beaten down, but the best opportunity is likely not today. There is a real danger that there is more bad news to come. The stock will also need to be rerated by analysts and the news digested by Wall Street. At this time Zillow is far too risky to initiate a position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZG":0.9,"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3138,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/848514751"}
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