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BlissNHappy

BlissNHappy

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2021-12-18

yeah

@Buy_Sell:🔥【12月17日】大型科技股全线下挫！今天什么值得买？

2021-12-17

Exactly

5 Stocks To Watch For December 17, 2021<blockquote>2021年12月17日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>

2021-12-17

Yep

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-08

$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$ Should have informed shareholders the adhoc offerings in advance on AGM

2021-12-01

Booming

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2021-11-26

yep

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-04

Like it like

Activision Blizzard Stock Had Its Worst Day Since 2008. Game Delays Caught Wall Street Off Guard.<blockquote>动视暴雪股价经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote>

2021-11-04

Not exactly

Zillow Stops Homebuying: How Will This Impact Their Stock Forecast?<blockquote>Zillow停止购房：这将如何影响他们的股票预测？</blockquote>

2021-10-20

Might tank likely

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2021-10-08

Commodities inflation

A global energy crisis is coming. There's no quick fix<blockquote>全球能源危机即将来临。没有快速解决办法</blockquote>

2021-09-29

Fifa

Electronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity<blockquote>艺电：基本面持续强劲，逢低买入机会</blockquote>

2021-09-14

Worth looking at

Akerna shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading<blockquote>Akerna股价在盘前交易中飙升超过9%</blockquote>

2021-09-14

Oppsie dope

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2021-09-08

Wait and see

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

2021-09-01

Meme ftw

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2021-08-18

Irrational dip

2021-07-22

Oh no

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-22

Yes

US stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数上升后，美国股市周四开盘涨跌不一</blockquote>

2021-06-09

Yep

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-07

LnS

Cathie Wood Loads Up $7.65M In Tesla, Also Adds Google, Trims Netflix<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)在特斯拉斥资765万美元，还增加了谷歌，削减了Netflix</blockquote>

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 跌超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 等皆有跌幅；保险股、乳制品股、光伏股、体育用品股普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06186\">$中国飞鹤(06186)$</a> 大跌近10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">$信义光能(00968)$</a> 跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">$中国平安(02318)$</a> 跌超3%，近期强势的电力股多数低开，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00916\">$龙源电力(00916)$</a> 跌超2%；另一方面，生物技术股再度集体反弹，美国商务部制裁名单不涉及医药公司；医药股走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09688\">$再鼎医药-SB(09688)$</a> 涨近1","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 12月17日讯，港股三大指数低开，恒指跌0.05%，国指跌0.41%，恒生科技指数跌0.8%。 盘面上，隔夜美股科技股重挫，港股大型科技股集体低开，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 、$网易-S(09999)$ 跌超2%，$腾讯控股(00700)$ 跌超1%，$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 、$京东集团-SW(09618)$ 等皆有跌幅；保险股、乳制品股、光伏股、体育用品股普跌，$中国飞鹤(06186)$ 大跌近10%，$信义光能(00968)$ 跌超4%，$中国平安(02318)$ 跌超3%，近期强势的电力股多数低开，$龙源电力(00916)$ 跌超2%；另一方面，生物技术股再度集体反弹，美国商务部制裁名单不涉及医药公司；医药股走高，$再鼎医药-SB(09688)$ 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Darden Restaurants shares slipped 0.8% to $145.99 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>FedEx Corporation</b>&nbsp;reported better-than-expected results for its second quarter and boosted its FY22 earnings guidance. The company also reported a $5 billion buyback, including $1.5 billion accelerated buyback program. FedEx shares climbed 4.9% to $250.30 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting&nbsp;<b>Winnebago Industries, Inc.</b>&nbsp;to have earned $2.25 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the market open. On Thursday, Winnebago’s board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share. Winnebago shares gained 4.6% to $71.00 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Steelcase Inc.</b>&nbsp;reported downbeat results for its third quarter and issued weak sales forecast for the current quarter. Steelcase shares dropped 3.7% to $11.09 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li><b>United States Steel Corporation</b>&nbsp;said it projects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of around $1.65 billion for the fourth quarter, versus analysts’ estimates of $2.13 billion amid a slowdown in orders. United States Steel shares dropped 5.1% to $22.26 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>达顿餐饮公司。</b>开盘前公布季度收益为每股1.44美元，营收为22.3亿美元。达顿餐厅股价在盘后交易中下跌0.8%，至145.99美元。</li><li><b>联邦快递公司</b>公布的第二季度业绩好于预期，并上调了2022财年盈利指引。该公司还报告了50亿美元的回购，其中包括15亿美元的加速回购计划。联邦快递股价在盘后交易时段上涨4.9%至250.30美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>温尼贝戈工业公司。</b>最近一个季度的营收为10.1亿美元，每股收益为2.25美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。周四，温尼贝戈董事会批准了每股0.18美元的季度现金股息。温尼贝戈股价在盘后交易中上涨4.6%，至71.00美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b>斯蒂尔凯斯公司。</b>报告了悲观的第三季度业绩，并发布了疲软的本季度销售预测。Steelcase股价在盘后交易时段下跌3.7%，至11.09美元。</li><li><b>美国钢铁公司</b>该公司表示，由于订单放缓，预计第四季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润约为16.5亿美元，而分析师预期为21.3亿美元。美国钢铁公司股价在盘后交易中下跌5.1%，至22.26美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For December 17, 2021<blockquote>2021年12月17日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For December 17, 2021<blockquote>2021年12月17日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-17 17:28</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects&nbsp;<b>Darden Restaurants, Inc.</b>&nbsp;to report quarterly earnings at $1.44 per share on revenue of $2.23 billion before the opening bell. Darden Restaurants shares slipped 0.8% to $145.99 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>FedEx Corporation</b>&nbsp;reported better-than-expected results for its second quarter and boosted its FY22 earnings guidance. The company also reported a $5 billion buyback, including $1.5 billion accelerated buyback program. FedEx shares climbed 4.9% to $250.30 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting&nbsp;<b>Winnebago Industries, Inc.</b>&nbsp;to have earned $2.25 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the market open. On Thursday, Winnebago’s board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share. Winnebago shares gained 4.6% to $71.00 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Steelcase Inc.</b>&nbsp;reported downbeat results for its third quarter and issued weak sales forecast for the current quarter. Steelcase shares dropped 3.7% to $11.09 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li><b>United States Steel Corporation</b>&nbsp;said it projects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of around $1.65 billion for the fourth quarter, versus analysts’ estimates of $2.13 billion amid a slowdown in orders. United States Steel shares dropped 5.1% to $22.26 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>达顿餐饮公司。</b>开盘前公布季度收益为每股1.44美元，营收为22.3亿美元。达顿餐厅股价在盘后交易中下跌0.8%，至145.99美元。</li><li><b>联邦快递公司</b>公布的第二季度业绩好于预期，并上调了2022财年盈利指引。该公司还报告了50亿美元的回购，其中包括15亿美元的加速回购计划。联邦快递股价在盘后交易时段上涨4.9%至250.30美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>温尼贝戈工业公司。</b>最近一个季度的营收为10.1亿美元，每股收益为2.25美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。周四，温尼贝戈董事会批准了每股0.18美元的季度现金股息。温尼贝戈股价在盘后交易中上涨4.6%，至71.00美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b>斯蒂尔凯斯公司。</b>报告了悲观的第三季度业绩，并发布了疲软的本季度销售预测。Steelcase股价在盘后交易时段下跌3.7%，至11.09美元。</li><li><b>美国钢铁公司</b>该公司表示，由于订单放缓，预计第四季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润约为16.5亿美元，而分析师预期为21.3亿美元。美国钢铁公司股价在盘后交易中下跌5.1%，至22.26美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DRI":"达登饭店","WGO":"温尼巴格实业","SCS":"Steelcase Inc.","FDX":"联邦快递","X":"美国钢铁"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154435289","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects Darden Restaurants, Inc. to report quarterly earnings at $1.44 per share on revenue of $2.23 billion before the opening bell. Darden Restaurants shares slipped 0.8% to $145.99 in after-hours trading.\nFedEx Corporation reported better-than-expected results for its second quarter and boosted its FY22 earnings guidance. The company also reported a $5 billion buyback, including $1.5 billion accelerated buyback program. FedEx shares climbed 4.9% to $250.30 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting Winnebago Industries, Inc. to have earned $2.25 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the market open. On Thursday, Winnebago’s board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share. Winnebago shares gained 4.6% to $71.00 in after-hours trading.\n\n\nSteelcase Inc. reported downbeat results for its third quarter and issued weak sales forecast for the current quarter. Steelcase shares dropped 3.7% to $11.09 in the after-hours trading session.\nUnited States Steel Corporation said it projects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of around $1.65 billion for the fourth quarter, versus analysts’ estimates of $2.13 billion amid a slowdown in orders. United States Steel shares dropped 5.1% to $22.26 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"X":0.9,"WGO":0.9,"SCS":0.9,"FDX":0.9,"DRI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699982955,"gmtCreate":1639735749487,"gmtModify":1639735749628,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yep","listText":"Yep","text":"Yep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699982955","repostId":"1100764747","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602018596,"gmtCreate":1638939040856,"gmtModify":1638939041050,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a> Should have informed shareholders the adhoc offerings in advance on AGM","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a> Should have informed shareholders the adhoc offerings in advance on AGM","text":"$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$ Should have informed shareholders the adhoc offerings in advance on AGM","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602018596","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603198026,"gmtCreate":1638371435847,"gmtModify":1638371436650,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Booming","listText":"Booming","text":"Booming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603198026","repostId":"2188563155","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877934099,"gmtCreate":1637857269344,"gmtModify":1637857269344,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yep","listText":"yep","text":"yep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877934099","repostId":"2186391610","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848517135,"gmtCreate":1636012293745,"gmtModify":1636012293877,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like it like","listText":"Like it like","text":"Like it like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848517135","repostId":"1176588625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176588625","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636010158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176588625?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 15:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Activision Blizzard Stock Had Its Worst Day Since 2008. Game Delays Caught Wall Street Off Guard.<blockquote>动视暴雪股价经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176588625","media":"Barrons","summary":"Activision Blizzard stock had its worst day since November 2008 on Wednesday as Wall Street tempered","content":"<p>Activision Blizzard&nbsp;stock had its worst day since November 2008 on Wednesday as Wall Street tempered expectations for the coming quarters. Delays for games <i>Overwatch 2</i> and <i>Diablo IV</i> caught Wall Street off guard.</p><p><blockquote>由于华尔街降低了对未来几个季度的预期，动视暴雪股价周三创下2008年11月以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟<i>守望先锋2</i>和<i>暗黑破坏神4</i>让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> The company (ticker: ATVI) joined a swath of videogame firms that have pushed back the release of key titles amid the pandemic. Activision Blizzard said it’s not planning for material contributions from <i>Diablo IV</i> and <i>Overwatch 2</i> in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司（股票代码：ATVI）加入了一系列视频游戏公司的行列，在疫情期间推迟了关键游戏的发布。动视暴雪表示，不打算从<i>暗黑破坏神4</i>和<i>守望先锋2</i>2022年。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the videogame firm fell about 14%, to $66.75, on Wednesday, the stock’s worst single-day percentage drop since it fell 15.6% on Nov. 14, 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose 0.6%, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;rose 1% on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>根据道琼斯市场数据，这家视频游戏公司的股价周三下跌约14%，至66.75美元，这是该股自2008年11月14日下跌15.6%以来最大单日百分比跌幅。标普500指数周三上涨0.6%，纳斯达克上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Baird analyst Colin Sebastian titled his Wednesday note “Q3 Recap: Should Have Known Better.”</p><p><blockquote>贝尔德分析师科林·塞巴斯蒂安(Colin Sebastian)将他周三的报告标题为“第三季度回顾：应该更清楚”。</blockquote></p><p> “While shares will trade lower embedding the push-out of revenues and earnings, compounding already frayed management credibility, we’d remind investors that it’s not unusual for Blizzard to delay new releases, and that other competing console/PC titles were pushed out at least a year, reflecting work-from-home issues,” Sebastian wrote.</p><p><blockquote>塞巴斯蒂安写道：“虽然由于收入和盈利的推动，股价将走低，加剧了本已受损的管理层信誉，但我们提醒投资者，暴雪推迟新版本的发布并不罕见，其他竞争对手的游戏机/PC游戏也被推出至少一年，反映了在家工作的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> For Activision Blizzard, Sebastian notes that the company is also experiencing internal disruptions following months of headlines and complaints from employees about the firm’s workplace culture.</p><p><blockquote>对于动视暴雪，塞巴斯蒂安指出，在几个月的头条新闻和员工对公司工作场所文化的抱怨之后，该公司也正在经历内部混乱。</blockquote></p><p> Executives said during the company’s earnings call that Jen Oneal, who became Blizzard’s co-leader in August along with Mike Ybarra, plans to depart at the end of the year. The company cited leadership changes when discussing the delays.</p><p><blockquote>高管们在公司财报看涨期权上表示，8月份与Mike Ybarra一起成为暴雪联席领导者的Jen Oneal计划在今年年底离职。该公司在讨论延误时提到了领导层的变动。</blockquote></p><p> Activision Blizzard is responding to employee concerns that were brought to investors’ attention when the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing filed&nbsp;a civil lawsuit in July. The agency alleged that the company “fostered a pervasive ‘frat boy’ workplace culture.” The firm also disclosed that the Securities and Exchange Commission was looking into disclosures related to workplace issues.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪正在回应员工的担忧，这些担忧在加州公平就业和住房部7月份提起民事诉讼时引起了投资者的注意。该机构声称，该公司“培养了一种普遍的‘兄弟会男孩’工作场所文化”。该公司还透露，美国证券交易委员会正在调查与工作场所问题相关的披露。</blockquote></p><p> Following an employee walkout, CEO Bobby Kotick recently said he’d cut his salary to the minimum allowed under California law. He also pledged that the company would take actions like investing $250 million toward opportunities for people from under-represented groups and increasing the percentage of women and non-binary people in its workforce by 50% within the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>员工罢工后，首席执行官鲍比·科蒂克最近表示，他已将工资削减至加州法律允许的最低水平。他还承诺，公司将采取行动，例如投资2.5亿美元为代表性不足的群体提供机会，并在未来五年内将女性和非二元性别人群在员工队伍中的比例提高50%。</blockquote></p><p> “Activision Blizzard is currently under investigation regarding accusations of workplace harassment,” Sebastian wrote, when discussing environmental, social, and governance considerations for the stock. “Clearly this will cast a shadow on the company’s social and governance efforts at least for the nearterm.”</p><p><blockquote>塞巴斯蒂安在讨论该股的环境、社会和治理考虑因素时写道：“动视暴雪目前正在接受有关工作场所骚扰指控的调查。”“显然，至少在短期内，这将给公司的社会和治理工作蒙上阴影。”</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners analyst Eric Handler cut his rating to Neutral from Buy and his price target to $75 from $108 in a note on Wednesday. He pointed to the delays, ongoing personnel turnover, and his belief that not all the bad news is out of the way.</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners分析师Eric Handler在周三的一份报告中将其评级从买入下调至中性，目标价从108美元下调至75美元。他指出了延误、持续的人员流动，以及他认为并非所有坏消息都已消除。</blockquote></p><p> “With increased uncertainty towards the every-other-year release of a [World of Warcraft] Modern expansion pack and for the various mobile titles currently in development, the 2022 projected growth curve has substantially flattened from our prior view,” Handler wrote.</p><p><blockquote>汉德勒写道：“随着[魔兽世界]现代资料片每隔一年发布一次以及目前正在开发的各种移动游戏的不确定性增加，2022年的预计增长曲线与我们之前的观点相比已基本持平。”</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who cut his price target to $98 from $125 but maintained an Outperform rating, noted that he suspected <i>Overwatch 2</i> could slip into 2023 when the game’s previous director Jeff Kaplan left the company in April.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter将目标价从125美元下调至98美元，但维持跑赢大盘评级，他指出，他怀疑<i>守望先锋2</i>当游戏前任总监杰夫·卡普兰(Jeff Kaplan)于4月份离开公司时，情况可能会滑入2023年。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst added that for the sequel, players will compete on teams of five, rather than the six in the current <i>Overwatch</i> game—a change that necessitated an overhaul of how the game is played. Still, comments from developers about the game’s progress as recently as two months ago seemingly signaled to Pachter that the game was on track for a 2022 release.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师补充说，在续集中，玩家将以五人一组的形式竞争，而不是目前的六人一组<i>守望</i>游戏——一个需要彻底改变游戏玩法的变化。尽管如此，就在两个月前，开发者对游戏进展的评论似乎向帕切特发出了信号，即游戏有望在2022年发布。</blockquote></p><p> “We think that Activision’s multi -channel distribution strategy for its games (premium, mobile, free-to-play and ongoing in-game monetization for premium) will ultimately pay large dividends, but the stock price suggests that investors have tired of waiting,” Pachter wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为动视暴雪对其游戏的多渠道发行策略（高级版、移动版、免费版和持续的高级版游戏内货币化）最终将带来巨额红利，但股价表明投资者已经厌倦了等待，”帕切特写道。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang cut his target to $85 from $100, noting that game delays are among the least challenging issues the company will face in the next year. He points to a leadership vacuum and concerns about talent retention.</p><p><blockquote>Oppenheimer分析师Martin Yang将目标从100美元下调至85美元，并指出游戏延迟是该公司明年面临的最不具挑战性的问题之一。他指出了领导真空和对人才保留的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe Blizzard faces the long-term challenges of repairing its brand and attracting new talent, at a time when demand for talent is greater than ever, and funding/infrastructure supporting experienced developers/artists to start their own studios is abundant,” Yang wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为暴雪面临着修复品牌和吸引新人才的长期挑战，而此时对人才的需求比以往任何时候都大，支持有经验的开发者/艺术家创办自己的工作室的资金/基础设施也很充足，”杨写道。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, Yang says investors still have a company with a strong balance sheet and cash flows, and the durable strength of its <i>Call of Duty</i> franchise and its King mobile games segment.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，杨表示，投资者仍然拥有一家资产负债表和现金流强劲的公司，以及其持久的实力<i>职务看涨期权</i>特许经营及其王者手机游戏细分市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “While Blizzard has major challenges ahead, it is not a lost cause,” Yang wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然暴雪面临重大挑战，但这并不是一个失败的事业，”杨写道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Activision Blizzard Stock Had Its Worst Day Since 2008. Game Delays Caught Wall Street Off Guard.<blockquote>动视暴雪股价经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nActivision Blizzard Stock Had Its Worst Day Since 2008. Game Delays Caught Wall Street Off Guard.<blockquote>动视暴雪股价经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 15:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Activision Blizzard&nbsp;stock had its worst day since November 2008 on Wednesday as Wall Street tempered expectations for the coming quarters. Delays for games <i>Overwatch 2</i> and <i>Diablo IV</i> caught Wall Street off guard.</p><p><blockquote>由于华尔街降低了对未来几个季度的预期，动视暴雪股价周三创下2008年11月以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟<i>守望先锋2</i>和<i>暗黑破坏神4</i>让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> The company (ticker: ATVI) joined a swath of videogame firms that have pushed back the release of key titles amid the pandemic. Activision Blizzard said it’s not planning for material contributions from <i>Diablo IV</i> and <i>Overwatch 2</i> in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司（股票代码：ATVI）加入了一系列视频游戏公司的行列，在疫情期间推迟了关键游戏的发布。动视暴雪表示，不打算从<i>暗黑破坏神4</i>和<i>守望先锋2</i>2022年。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the videogame firm fell about 14%, to $66.75, on Wednesday, the stock’s worst single-day percentage drop since it fell 15.6% on Nov. 14, 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose 0.6%, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;rose 1% on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>根据道琼斯市场数据，这家视频游戏公司的股价周三下跌约14%，至66.75美元，这是该股自2008年11月14日下跌15.6%以来最大单日百分比跌幅。标普500指数周三上涨0.6%，纳斯达克上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Baird analyst Colin Sebastian titled his Wednesday note “Q3 Recap: Should Have Known Better.”</p><p><blockquote>贝尔德分析师科林·塞巴斯蒂安(Colin Sebastian)将他周三的报告标题为“第三季度回顾：应该更清楚”。</blockquote></p><p> “While shares will trade lower embedding the push-out of revenues and earnings, compounding already frayed management credibility, we’d remind investors that it’s not unusual for Blizzard to delay new releases, and that other competing console/PC titles were pushed out at least a year, reflecting work-from-home issues,” Sebastian wrote.</p><p><blockquote>塞巴斯蒂安写道：“虽然由于收入和盈利的推动，股价将走低，加剧了本已受损的管理层信誉，但我们提醒投资者，暴雪推迟新版本的发布并不罕见，其他竞争对手的游戏机/PC游戏也被推出至少一年，反映了在家工作的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> For Activision Blizzard, Sebastian notes that the company is also experiencing internal disruptions following months of headlines and complaints from employees about the firm’s workplace culture.</p><p><blockquote>对于动视暴雪，塞巴斯蒂安指出，在几个月的头条新闻和员工对公司工作场所文化的抱怨之后，该公司也正在经历内部混乱。</blockquote></p><p> Executives said during the company’s earnings call that Jen Oneal, who became Blizzard’s co-leader in August along with Mike Ybarra, plans to depart at the end of the year. The company cited leadership changes when discussing the delays.</p><p><blockquote>高管们在公司财报看涨期权上表示，8月份与Mike Ybarra一起成为暴雪联席领导者的Jen Oneal计划在今年年底离职。该公司在讨论延误时提到了领导层的变动。</blockquote></p><p> Activision Blizzard is responding to employee concerns that were brought to investors’ attention when the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing filed&nbsp;a civil lawsuit in July. The agency alleged that the company “fostered a pervasive ‘frat boy’ workplace culture.” The firm also disclosed that the Securities and Exchange Commission was looking into disclosures related to workplace issues.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪正在回应员工的担忧，这些担忧在加州公平就业和住房部7月份提起民事诉讼时引起了投资者的注意。该机构声称，该公司“培养了一种普遍的‘兄弟会男孩’工作场所文化”。该公司还透露，美国证券交易委员会正在调查与工作场所问题相关的披露。</blockquote></p><p> Following an employee walkout, CEO Bobby Kotick recently said he’d cut his salary to the minimum allowed under California law. He also pledged that the company would take actions like investing $250 million toward opportunities for people from under-represented groups and increasing the percentage of women and non-binary people in its workforce by 50% within the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>员工罢工后，首席执行官鲍比·科蒂克最近表示，他已将工资削减至加州法律允许的最低水平。他还承诺，公司将采取行动，例如投资2.5亿美元为代表性不足的群体提供机会，并在未来五年内将女性和非二元性别人群在员工队伍中的比例提高50%。</blockquote></p><p> “Activision Blizzard is currently under investigation regarding accusations of workplace harassment,” Sebastian wrote, when discussing environmental, social, and governance considerations for the stock. “Clearly this will cast a shadow on the company’s social and governance efforts at least for the nearterm.”</p><p><blockquote>塞巴斯蒂安在讨论该股的环境、社会和治理考虑因素时写道：“动视暴雪目前正在接受有关工作场所骚扰指控的调查。”“显然，至少在短期内，这将给公司的社会和治理工作蒙上阴影。”</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners analyst Eric Handler cut his rating to Neutral from Buy and his price target to $75 from $108 in a note on Wednesday. He pointed to the delays, ongoing personnel turnover, and his belief that not all the bad news is out of the way.</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners分析师Eric Handler在周三的一份报告中将其评级从买入下调至中性，目标价从108美元下调至75美元。他指出了延误、持续的人员流动，以及他认为并非所有坏消息都已消除。</blockquote></p><p> “With increased uncertainty towards the every-other-year release of a [World of Warcraft] Modern expansion pack and for the various mobile titles currently in development, the 2022 projected growth curve has substantially flattened from our prior view,” Handler wrote.</p><p><blockquote>汉德勒写道：“随着[魔兽世界]现代资料片每隔一年发布一次以及目前正在开发的各种移动游戏的不确定性增加，2022年的预计增长曲线与我们之前的观点相比已基本持平。”</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who cut his price target to $98 from $125 but maintained an Outperform rating, noted that he suspected <i>Overwatch 2</i> could slip into 2023 when the game’s previous director Jeff Kaplan left the company in April.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter将目标价从125美元下调至98美元，但维持跑赢大盘评级，他指出，他怀疑<i>守望先锋2</i>当游戏前任总监杰夫·卡普兰(Jeff Kaplan)于4月份离开公司时，情况可能会滑入2023年。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst added that for the sequel, players will compete on teams of five, rather than the six in the current <i>Overwatch</i> game—a change that necessitated an overhaul of how the game is played. Still, comments from developers about the game’s progress as recently as two months ago seemingly signaled to Pachter that the game was on track for a 2022 release.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师补充说，在续集中，玩家将以五人一组的形式竞争，而不是目前的六人一组<i>守望</i>游戏——一个需要彻底改变游戏玩法的变化。尽管如此，就在两个月前，开发者对游戏进展的评论似乎向帕切特发出了信号，即游戏有望在2022年发布。</blockquote></p><p> “We think that Activision’s multi -channel distribution strategy for its games (premium, mobile, free-to-play and ongoing in-game monetization for premium) will ultimately pay large dividends, but the stock price suggests that investors have tired of waiting,” Pachter wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为动视暴雪对其游戏的多渠道发行策略（高级版、移动版、免费版和持续的高级版游戏内货币化）最终将带来巨额红利，但股价表明投资者已经厌倦了等待，”帕切特写道。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang cut his target to $85 from $100, noting that game delays are among the least challenging issues the company will face in the next year. He points to a leadership vacuum and concerns about talent retention.</p><p><blockquote>Oppenheimer分析师Martin Yang将目标从100美元下调至85美元，并指出游戏延迟是该公司明年面临的最不具挑战性的问题之一。他指出了领导真空和对人才保留的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe Blizzard faces the long-term challenges of repairing its brand and attracting new talent, at a time when demand for talent is greater than ever, and funding/infrastructure supporting experienced developers/artists to start their own studios is abundant,” Yang wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为暴雪面临着修复品牌和吸引新人才的长期挑战，而此时对人才的需求比以往任何时候都大，支持有经验的开发者/艺术家创办自己的工作室的资金/基础设施也很充足，”杨写道。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, Yang says investors still have a company with a strong balance sheet and cash flows, and the durable strength of its <i>Call of Duty</i> franchise and its King mobile games segment.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，杨表示，投资者仍然拥有一家资产负债表和现金流强劲的公司，以及其持久的实力<i>职务看涨期权</i>特许经营及其王者手机游戏细分市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “While Blizzard has major challenges ahead, it is not a lost cause,” Yang wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然暴雪面临重大挑战，但这并不是一个失败的事业，”杨写道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/activision-blizzard-stock-worst-day-game-delays-51635971518?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ATVI":"动视暴雪"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/activision-blizzard-stock-worst-day-game-delays-51635971518?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176588625","content_text":"Activision Blizzard stock had its worst day since November 2008 on Wednesday as Wall Street tempered expectations for the coming quarters. Delays for games Overwatch 2 and Diablo IV caught Wall Street off guard.\nThe company (ticker: ATVI) joined a swath of videogame firms that have pushed back the release of key titles amid the pandemic. Activision Blizzard said it’s not planning for material contributions from Diablo IV and Overwatch 2 in 2022.\nShares of the videogame firm fell about 14%, to $66.75, on Wednesday, the stock’s worst single-day percentage drop since it fell 15.6% on Nov. 14, 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 1% on Wednesday.\nBaird analyst Colin Sebastian titled his Wednesday note “Q3 Recap: Should Have Known Better.”\n“While shares will trade lower embedding the push-out of revenues and earnings, compounding already frayed management credibility, we’d remind investors that it’s not unusual for Blizzard to delay new releases, and that other competing console/PC titles were pushed out at least a year, reflecting work-from-home issues,” Sebastian wrote.\nFor Activision Blizzard, Sebastian notes that the company is also experiencing internal disruptions following months of headlines and complaints from employees about the firm’s workplace culture.\nExecutives said during the company’s earnings call that Jen Oneal, who became Blizzard’s co-leader in August along with Mike Ybarra, plans to depart at the end of the year. The company cited leadership changes when discussing the delays.\nActivision Blizzard is responding to employee concerns that were brought to investors’ attention when the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing filed a civil lawsuit in July. The agency alleged that the company “fostered a pervasive ‘frat boy’ workplace culture.” The firm also disclosed that the Securities and Exchange Commission was looking into disclosures related to workplace issues.\nFollowing an employee walkout, CEO Bobby Kotick recently said he’d cut his salary to the minimum allowed under California law. He also pledged that the company would take actions like investing $250 million toward opportunities for people from under-represented groups and increasing the percentage of women and non-binary people in its workforce by 50% within the next five years.\n“Activision Blizzard is currently under investigation regarding accusations of workplace harassment,” Sebastian wrote, when discussing environmental, social, and governance considerations for the stock. “Clearly this will cast a shadow on the company’s social and governance efforts at least for the nearterm.”\nMKM Partners analyst Eric Handler cut his rating to Neutral from Buy and his price target to $75 from $108 in a note on Wednesday. He pointed to the delays, ongoing personnel turnover, and his belief that not all the bad news is out of the way.\n“With increased uncertainty towards the every-other-year release of a [World of Warcraft] Modern expansion pack and for the various mobile titles currently in development, the 2022 projected growth curve has substantially flattened from our prior view,” Handler wrote.\nWedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who cut his price target to $98 from $125 but maintained an Outperform rating, noted that he suspected Overwatch 2 could slip into 2023 when the game’s previous director Jeff Kaplan left the company in April.\nThe analyst added that for the sequel, players will compete on teams of five, rather than the six in the current Overwatch game—a change that necessitated an overhaul of how the game is played. Still, comments from developers about the game’s progress as recently as two months ago seemingly signaled to Pachter that the game was on track for a 2022 release.\n“We think that Activision’s multi -channel distribution strategy for its games (premium, mobile, free-to-play and ongoing in-game monetization for premium) will ultimately pay large dividends, but the stock price suggests that investors have tired of waiting,” Pachter wrote.\nOppenheimer analyst Martin Yang cut his target to $85 from $100, noting that game delays are among the least challenging issues the company will face in the next year. He points to a leadership vacuum and concerns about talent retention.\n“We believe Blizzard faces the long-term challenges of repairing its brand and attracting new talent, at a time when demand for talent is greater than ever, and funding/infrastructure supporting experienced developers/artists to start their own studios is abundant,” Yang wrote.\nIn the meantime, Yang says investors still have a company with a strong balance sheet and cash flows, and the durable strength of its Call of Duty franchise and its King mobile games segment.\n“While Blizzard has major challenges ahead, it is not a lost cause,” Yang wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ATVI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848514751,"gmtCreate":1636012262021,"gmtModify":1636012279057,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not exactly","listText":"Not exactly","text":"Not exactly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848514751","repostId":"1196366330","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196366330","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636011077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196366330?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow Stops Homebuying: How Will This Impact Their Stock Forecast?<blockquote>Zillow停止购房：这将如何影响他们的股票预测？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196366330","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nZillow had paused, and now will completely wind down, home buying with the division termina","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Zillow had paused, and now will completely wind down, home buying with the division terminating over the next few quarters.</li>  <li>There is evidence of a slowing housing market and Zillow is reportedly offloading homes below cost and will take a significant asset write-down.</li>  <li>Zillow's stock has been in a downward cycle since February of this year, and this shows no signs of slowing.</li>  <li>The IMT segment posted positive Q3 results, which were obviously overshadowed by the news above.</li>  <li>How do these moving parts impact the company's prospects?</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db785603fd1fe96aa3ee17c4196b74dd\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Xacto/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Zillow已经暂停，现在将完全停止购房，该部门将在未来几个季度内终止。</li><li>有证据表明房地产市场正在放缓，据报道，Zillow正在以低于成本的价格出售房屋，并将进行大幅资产减记。</li><li>自今年2月以来，Zillow的股价一直处于下行周期，而且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>IMT部门公布了积极的第三季度业绩，这显然被上述消息所掩盖。</li><li>这些活动部件如何影响公司的前景？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Xacto/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Did Zillow Stop Home Buying?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow为什么停止购房？</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) is a digital real estate company which operates in three divisions. First, it operates its Internet, Media, and Technology (IMT) segment which produces revenue through Premier Agent or advertising revenues from agents. Second, the mortgage segment makes money by performing loan originations and reselling mortgages. The third segment, and largest segment by revenue, is the Homes segment, commonly known as Zillow Offers. In this segment the company purchases, fixes, and resells residential real estate. Zillow announced it&nbsp;will be winding this segment down completely&nbsp;during their Q3 earnings release. The wind-down includes an asset write-down of over $300M as well.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow Group，Inc.（Z）是一家数字房地产公司，分为三个部门。首先，它运营互联网、媒体和技术（IMT）部门，该部门通过Premier Agent或代理商的广告收入产生收入。其次，抵押贷款部门通过发放贷款和转售抵押贷款来赚钱。第三个细分市场，也是收入最大的细分市场，是住宅细分市场，通常称为Zillow Offers。在这一部分，该公司购买、修理和转售住宅房地产。Zillow宣布将在第三季度财报发布期间完全关闭该细分市场。此次缩减还包括超过3亿美元的资产减记。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, how did we get here?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，我们是怎么到这里的？</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-October, Zillow paused this segment through at least the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>10月中旬，Zillow暂停了这一细分市场，至少到2021年底。</blockquote></p><p>   We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time...\"    Company Spokesman per Seeking Alpha, courtesy Bloomberg.  This news had both positive and negative elements. First, on the positive side, it is obvious that the iBuying program is immensely popular. Zillow reported&nbsp;that 1% of homes in Q2 2021&nbsp;used some type of iBuying program. This may not seem significant at just 1%, however considering the United States home sales market is&nbsp;expected to reach $2.5&nbsp;<i>trillion</i>&nbsp;in 2021, this is a very big number indeed. I also considered it positive that Zillow recognized that they were becoming overextended and paused, rather than risking serious systemic issues that would hurt customers and damage their reputation.</p><p><blockquote>我们的Zillow Offers业务超出了运营能力，目前不会签订额外的购房合同……”Seeking Alpha的公司发言人，由彭博社提供。这个消息既有积极的因素，也有消极的因素。首先，从积极的一面来看，iBuying计划显然非常受欢迎。Zillow报告称，2021年第二季度有1%的家庭使用某种类型的iBuying计划。这可能看起来并不重要，只有1%，但考虑到美国房屋销售市场预计将达到2.5美元<i>万亿</i>2021年，这确实是一个非常大的数字。我还认为，Zillow认识到他们正在变得过度扩张和暂停，而不是冒着严重的系统性问题的风险，这是积极的，这些问题会伤害客户并损害他们的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> This has clear implications for competitors like Redfin (RDFN) and Opendoor (OPEN) to accumulate market share. The iBuying process is popular, but it must be managed correctly. I have seen no indication that they will cease their programs.</p><p><blockquote>这对于Redfin(RDFN)和Opendoor(OPEN)等竞争对手积累市场份额具有明显的影响。iBuying流程很受欢迎，但必须正确管理。我没有看到他们会停止他们的项目的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Further, this could be a reflection that the red-hot market is cooling. Zillow may have many more sellers in line than buyers. While the secular demand trends are expected to be positive, as&nbsp;the country is short millions of homes, the short-term could get bumpy. Two days prior to this announcement, Redfin&nbsp;reported a drop in both homes sales, which dropped 9%, and new listings, which fell 5%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这可能反映出火热的市场正在降温。Zillow排队的卖家可能比买家多得多。虽然长期需求趋势预计是积极的，但由于该国缺少数百万套住房，短期可能会变得坎坷。在宣布这一消息的两天前，Redfin报告称，房屋销量下降了9%，新挂牌量下降了5%。</blockquote></p><p> Other reasons for the pause, included macroeconomic issues that many businesses are currently facing. These include supply and labor shortages that have extended the process of reselling a home.</p><p><blockquote>暂停的其他原因包括许多企业目前面临的宏观经济问题。其中包括延长转售房屋过程的供应和劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p>   We're operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces...    \"Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory,\"    Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow CEO, in a statement.  Because of this, higher costs of renovations could significantly tighten margins. In fact, more than half of the homes recently purchased may be under water, as I will discuss below.</p><p><blockquote>我们在竞争激烈的房地产市场中，在劳动力和供应受限的经济中运营，尤其是在建筑、翻新和封闭空间方面...Zillow首席执行官杰里米·瓦克斯曼(Jeremy Wacksman)在一份声明中表示：“暂停新合同将使我们能够专注于已与我们签订合同的卖家以及我们当前的房屋库存。”因此，更高的装修成本可能会显着收紧利润。事实上，最近购买的房屋中有一半以上可能被水淹没，我将在下面讨论。</blockquote></p><p> Home prices had been on fire for the first half of this year when Zillow was a buyer. Now that the market is taking a breather, these homes are waiting for buyers and the prices are coming down. This is a serious risk that every iBuying company will face. And the risk is structural. Shown below, prices have inched down ever so slightly from the red-hot summer months. It is worrisome that Zillow has purchased in the summer, while prices were highest, and is now selling in the fall when the kids are back in school and the market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>今年上半年，当Zillow成为买家时，房价一直在飙升。现在市场正在喘口气，这些房子正在等待买家，价格正在下降。这是每个iBuying公司都会面临的严重风险。风险是结构性的。如下图所示，价格比炎热的夏季略有下降。令人担忧的是，Zillow在价格最高的夏季购买了Zillow，现在在秋季孩子们返校、市场放缓时出售。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e59a7c8a0c8cf3531ea1972a7a8fd3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股价</b></blockquote></p><p> This news caused nervous investors to accelerate the downtrend in the stock, fearing a structural difficulty that could linger. The stock fell nearly 10% total in the days around the announcement.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息导致紧张的投资者加速了该股的下跌趋势，担心结构性困难可能会持续存在。公告发布前后几天，该股累计下跌近10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a78debfc71d8aac0b2eaeaf304fe5eb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, cooler heads prevailed and the stock recovered somewhat thanks to a bullish hedge fund call which I discuss below. It is still stuck in a persistent downward trend since earlier this year, as shown below in the YTD chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，冷静的头脑占了上风，由于看涨的对冲基金看涨期权，该股有所回升，我将在下面讨论。自今年早些时候以来，它仍陷入持续下降趋势，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab979080dfdee8a0875705807f5c89b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One positive note for the stock is the interest from hedge fund manager Gil Simon of SoMa Equity Partners who recommended the stock and sees a&nbsp;\"compelling\" long-term opportunity. As the stock price has been cut in half since February 2021 it is difficult not to see it as oversold. Especially as certain metrics begin to resemble those from before the pandemic. This bullish call was made after the \"pause\" announcement, but before the \"wind down\" announcement.</p><p><blockquote>该股的一个积极因素是SoMa Equity Partners对冲基金经理吉尔·西蒙(Gil Simon)的兴趣，他推荐了该股，并看到了“令人信服的”长期机会。由于股价自2021年2月以来已腰斩，很难不将其视为超卖。尤其是当某些指标开始类似于大流行之前的指标时。这个看涨的看涨期权是在“暂停”公告之后，但在“结束”公告之前做出的。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, not all analysts were or are bullish. Bank of America&nbsp;cut its price target&nbsp;from $100 to $85 on October 28, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，并非所有分析师过去或现在都看涨。美国银行于2021年10月28日将其目标价从100美元下调至85美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to start out November on a sour note, a KeyBanc analyst pointed to a&nbsp;study done by the firm that shows well over half the home&nbsp;scurrently listed are selling for<i>less</i>than the purchase price. This led to another selloff of more than 10% to open the month of November, pictured below. This looked to confirm some of the worst fears when the pause was implemented.</p><p><blockquote>然后，KeyBanc的一位分析师指出，该公司进行的一项研究显示，目前上市的房屋中有一半以上的售价为<i>低于</i>比购买价格。这导致11月份开盘再次出现超过10%的抛售，如下图所示。这似乎证实了暂停实施时一些最严重的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/859acfe9ed5bc2583e62ed965984227f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 results are almost an afterthought at this point. There are some positives in the release, however. The IMT segment posted impressive revenue and EBITDA figures. The segment has grown revenues at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 15% since 2018, or 52% total. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment has grown at a CAGR over 50% during this time and reached $836M for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This will be the key to success moving forward. Zillow also has the opportunity to focus on profitability moving forward rather than growth at any cost. The IMT segment is generally profitable, while the homebuying segment has been unprofitable historically. Mortgages have profit potential as well, having posted positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2021, albeit only $5M. It remains to be seen exactly how Zillow will move forward, but a focus on becoming cash-flow and EBITDA positive overall and the core business would be wise.</p><p><blockquote>此时，第三季度的业绩几乎是事后才想到的。然而，这个版本也有一些积极的方面。IMT部门公布了令人印象深刻的收入和EBITDA数据。自2018年以来，该部门的收入复合年增长率(CAGR)超过15%，占总收入的52%。在此期间，该部门的调整后EBITDA复合年增长率超过50%，截至2021年9月30日的过去12个月达到8.36亿美元。这将是成功前进的关键。Zillow还有机会专注于未来的盈利能力，而不是不惜一切代价实现增长。IMT部门总体上是盈利的，而购房部门历来是无利可图的。抵押贷款也有盈利潜力，2021年第三季度调整后EBITDA为正，尽管只有500万美元。Zillow将如何前进还有待观察，但专注于整体现金流和EBITDA以及核心业务将是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Zillow Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts have a gigantic spread in opinion on Zillow. Some have price targets at $145 while others have cut to just $85. The average target, according to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha's Wall St. Rating center&nbsp;is $98.50. There is much uncertainty after the announcement of the wind-down and we will likely see&nbsp;significant adjustments downward&nbsp;in the next several days.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对Zillow的看法存在巨大差异。一些公司的目标价为145美元，而另一些公司则将目标价降至85美元。根据Seeking Alpha华尔街评级中心的数据，平均目标为98.50美元。宣布结束后存在很大的不确定性，我们可能会在未来几天看到大幅向下调整。</blockquote></p><p> This uncertainty may bring about an opportunity to invest while the stock is heavily beaten down, but the best opportunity is likely not today. There is a real danger that there is more bad news to come. The stock will also need to be rerated by analysts and the news digested by Wall Street. At this time Zillow is far too risky to initiate a position.</p><p><blockquote>这种不确定性可能会在该股遭受重创时带来投资机会，但最好的机会可能不是今天。确实存在更多坏消息即将到来的危险。该股还需要由分析师重新评级，华尔街也需要消化这一消息。目前，Zillow的风险太大，无法建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow Stops Homebuying: How Will This Impact Their Stock Forecast?<blockquote>Zillow停止购房：这将如何影响他们的股票预测？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow Stops Homebuying: How Will This Impact Their Stock Forecast?<blockquote>Zillow停止购房：这将如何影响他们的股票预测？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Zillow had paused, and now will completely wind down, home buying with the division terminating over the next few quarters.</li>  <li>There is evidence of a slowing housing market and Zillow is reportedly offloading homes below cost and will take a significant asset write-down.</li>  <li>Zillow's stock has been in a downward cycle since February of this year, and this shows no signs of slowing.</li>  <li>The IMT segment posted positive Q3 results, which were obviously overshadowed by the news above.</li>  <li>How do these moving parts impact the company's prospects?</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db785603fd1fe96aa3ee17c4196b74dd\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Xacto/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Zillow已经暂停，现在将完全停止购房，该部门将在未来几个季度内终止。</li><li>有证据表明房地产市场正在放缓，据报道，Zillow正在以低于成本的价格出售房屋，并将进行大幅资产减记。</li><li>自今年2月以来，Zillow的股价一直处于下行周期，而且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>IMT部门公布了积极的第三季度业绩，这显然被上述消息所掩盖。</li><li>这些活动部件如何影响公司的前景？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Xacto/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Did Zillow Stop Home Buying?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow为什么停止购房？</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) is a digital real estate company which operates in three divisions. First, it operates its Internet, Media, and Technology (IMT) segment which produces revenue through Premier Agent or advertising revenues from agents. Second, the mortgage segment makes money by performing loan originations and reselling mortgages. The third segment, and largest segment by revenue, is the Homes segment, commonly known as Zillow Offers. In this segment the company purchases, fixes, and resells residential real estate. Zillow announced it&nbsp;will be winding this segment down completely&nbsp;during their Q3 earnings release. The wind-down includes an asset write-down of over $300M as well.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow Group，Inc.（Z）是一家数字房地产公司，分为三个部门。首先，它运营互联网、媒体和技术（IMT）部门，该部门通过Premier Agent或代理商的广告收入产生收入。其次，抵押贷款部门通过发放贷款和转售抵押贷款来赚钱。第三个细分市场，也是收入最大的细分市场，是住宅细分市场，通常称为Zillow Offers。在这一部分，该公司购买、修理和转售住宅房地产。Zillow宣布将在第三季度财报发布期间完全关闭该细分市场。此次缩减还包括超过3亿美元的资产减记。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, how did we get here?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，我们是怎么到这里的？</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-October, Zillow paused this segment through at least the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>10月中旬，Zillow暂停了这一细分市场，至少到2021年底。</blockquote></p><p>   We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time...\"    Company Spokesman per Seeking Alpha, courtesy Bloomberg.  This news had both positive and negative elements. First, on the positive side, it is obvious that the iBuying program is immensely popular. Zillow reported&nbsp;that 1% of homes in Q2 2021&nbsp;used some type of iBuying program. This may not seem significant at just 1%, however considering the United States home sales market is&nbsp;expected to reach $2.5&nbsp;<i>trillion</i>&nbsp;in 2021, this is a very big number indeed. I also considered it positive that Zillow recognized that they were becoming overextended and paused, rather than risking serious systemic issues that would hurt customers and damage their reputation.</p><p><blockquote>我们的Zillow Offers业务超出了运营能力，目前不会签订额外的购房合同……”Seeking Alpha的公司发言人，由彭博社提供。这个消息既有积极的因素，也有消极的因素。首先，从积极的一面来看，iBuying计划显然非常受欢迎。Zillow报告称，2021年第二季度有1%的家庭使用某种类型的iBuying计划。这可能看起来并不重要，只有1%，但考虑到美国房屋销售市场预计将达到2.5美元<i>万亿</i>2021年，这确实是一个非常大的数字。我还认为，Zillow认识到他们正在变得过度扩张和暂停，而不是冒着严重的系统性问题的风险，这是积极的，这些问题会伤害客户并损害他们的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> This has clear implications for competitors like Redfin (RDFN) and Opendoor (OPEN) to accumulate market share. The iBuying process is popular, but it must be managed correctly. I have seen no indication that they will cease their programs.</p><p><blockquote>这对于Redfin(RDFN)和Opendoor(OPEN)等竞争对手积累市场份额具有明显的影响。iBuying流程很受欢迎，但必须正确管理。我没有看到他们会停止他们的项目的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Further, this could be a reflection that the red-hot market is cooling. Zillow may have many more sellers in line than buyers. While the secular demand trends are expected to be positive, as&nbsp;the country is short millions of homes, the short-term could get bumpy. Two days prior to this announcement, Redfin&nbsp;reported a drop in both homes sales, which dropped 9%, and new listings, which fell 5%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这可能反映出火热的市场正在降温。Zillow排队的卖家可能比买家多得多。虽然长期需求趋势预计是积极的，但由于该国缺少数百万套住房，短期可能会变得坎坷。在宣布这一消息的两天前，Redfin报告称，房屋销量下降了9%，新挂牌量下降了5%。</blockquote></p><p> Other reasons for the pause, included macroeconomic issues that many businesses are currently facing. These include supply and labor shortages that have extended the process of reselling a home.</p><p><blockquote>暂停的其他原因包括许多企业目前面临的宏观经济问题。其中包括延长转售房屋过程的供应和劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p>   We're operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces...    \"Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory,\"    Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow CEO, in a statement.  Because of this, higher costs of renovations could significantly tighten margins. In fact, more than half of the homes recently purchased may be under water, as I will discuss below.</p><p><blockquote>我们在竞争激烈的房地产市场中，在劳动力和供应受限的经济中运营，尤其是在建筑、翻新和封闭空间方面...Zillow首席执行官杰里米·瓦克斯曼(Jeremy Wacksman)在一份声明中表示：“暂停新合同将使我们能够专注于已与我们签订合同的卖家以及我们当前的房屋库存。”因此，更高的装修成本可能会显着收紧利润。事实上，最近购买的房屋中有一半以上可能被水淹没，我将在下面讨论。</blockquote></p><p> Home prices had been on fire for the first half of this year when Zillow was a buyer. Now that the market is taking a breather, these homes are waiting for buyers and the prices are coming down. This is a serious risk that every iBuying company will face. And the risk is structural. Shown below, prices have inched down ever so slightly from the red-hot summer months. It is worrisome that Zillow has purchased in the summer, while prices were highest, and is now selling in the fall when the kids are back in school and the market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>今年上半年，当Zillow成为买家时，房价一直在飙升。现在市场正在喘口气，这些房子正在等待买家，价格正在下降。这是每个iBuying公司都会面临的严重风险。风险是结构性的。如下图所示，价格比炎热的夏季略有下降。令人担忧的是，Zillow在价格最高的夏季购买了Zillow，现在在秋季孩子们返校、市场放缓时出售。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e59a7c8a0c8cf3531ea1972a7a8fd3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股价</b></blockquote></p><p> This news caused nervous investors to accelerate the downtrend in the stock, fearing a structural difficulty that could linger. The stock fell nearly 10% total in the days around the announcement.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息导致紧张的投资者加速了该股的下跌趋势，担心结构性困难可能会持续存在。公告发布前后几天，该股累计下跌近10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a78debfc71d8aac0b2eaeaf304fe5eb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, cooler heads prevailed and the stock recovered somewhat thanks to a bullish hedge fund call which I discuss below. It is still stuck in a persistent downward trend since earlier this year, as shown below in the YTD chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，冷静的头脑占了上风，由于看涨的对冲基金看涨期权，该股有所回升，我将在下面讨论。自今年早些时候以来，它仍陷入持续下降趋势，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab979080dfdee8a0875705807f5c89b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One positive note for the stock is the interest from hedge fund manager Gil Simon of SoMa Equity Partners who recommended the stock and sees a&nbsp;\"compelling\" long-term opportunity. As the stock price has been cut in half since February 2021 it is difficult not to see it as oversold. Especially as certain metrics begin to resemble those from before the pandemic. This bullish call was made after the \"pause\" announcement, but before the \"wind down\" announcement.</p><p><blockquote>该股的一个积极因素是SoMa Equity Partners对冲基金经理吉尔·西蒙(Gil Simon)的兴趣，他推荐了该股，并看到了“令人信服的”长期机会。由于股价自2021年2月以来已腰斩，很难不将其视为超卖。尤其是当某些指标开始类似于大流行之前的指标时。这个看涨的看涨期权是在“暂停”公告之后，但在“结束”公告之前做出的。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, not all analysts were or are bullish. Bank of America&nbsp;cut its price target&nbsp;from $100 to $85 on October 28, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，并非所有分析师过去或现在都看涨。美国银行于2021年10月28日将其目标价从100美元下调至85美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to start out November on a sour note, a KeyBanc analyst pointed to a&nbsp;study done by the firm that shows well over half the home&nbsp;scurrently listed are selling for<i>less</i>than the purchase price. This led to another selloff of more than 10% to open the month of November, pictured below. This looked to confirm some of the worst fears when the pause was implemented.</p><p><blockquote>然后，KeyBanc的一位分析师指出，该公司进行的一项研究显示，目前上市的房屋中有一半以上的售价为<i>低于</i>比购买价格。这导致11月份开盘再次出现超过10%的抛售，如下图所示。这似乎证实了暂停实施时一些最严重的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/859acfe9ed5bc2583e62ed965984227f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 results are almost an afterthought at this point. There are some positives in the release, however. The IMT segment posted impressive revenue and EBITDA figures. The segment has grown revenues at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 15% since 2018, or 52% total. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment has grown at a CAGR over 50% during this time and reached $836M for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This will be the key to success moving forward. Zillow also has the opportunity to focus on profitability moving forward rather than growth at any cost. The IMT segment is generally profitable, while the homebuying segment has been unprofitable historically. Mortgages have profit potential as well, having posted positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2021, albeit only $5M. It remains to be seen exactly how Zillow will move forward, but a focus on becoming cash-flow and EBITDA positive overall and the core business would be wise.</p><p><blockquote>此时，第三季度的业绩几乎是事后才想到的。然而，这个版本也有一些积极的方面。IMT部门公布了令人印象深刻的收入和EBITDA数据。自2018年以来，该部门的收入复合年增长率(CAGR)超过15%，占总收入的52%。在此期间，该部门的调整后EBITDA复合年增长率超过50%，截至2021年9月30日的过去12个月达到8.36亿美元。这将是成功前进的关键。Zillow还有机会专注于未来的盈利能力，而不是不惜一切代价实现增长。IMT部门总体上是盈利的，而购房部门历来是无利可图的。抵押贷款也有盈利潜力，2021年第三季度调整后EBITDA为正，尽管只有500万美元。Zillow将如何前进还有待观察，但专注于整体现金流和EBITDA以及核心业务将是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Zillow Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts have a gigantic spread in opinion on Zillow. Some have price targets at $145 while others have cut to just $85. The average target, according to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha's Wall St. Rating center&nbsp;is $98.50. There is much uncertainty after the announcement of the wind-down and we will likely see&nbsp;significant adjustments downward&nbsp;in the next several days.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对Zillow的看法存在巨大差异。一些公司的目标价为145美元，而另一些公司则将目标价降至85美元。根据Seeking Alpha华尔街评级中心的数据，平均目标为98.50美元。宣布结束后存在很大的不确定性，我们可能会在未来几天看到大幅向下调整。</blockquote></p><p> This uncertainty may bring about an opportunity to invest while the stock is heavily beaten down, but the best opportunity is likely not today. There is a real danger that there is more bad news to come. The stock will also need to be rerated by analysts and the news digested by Wall Street. At this time Zillow is far too risky to initiate a position.</p><p><blockquote>这种不确定性可能会在该股遭受重创时带来投资机会，但最好的机会可能不是今天。确实存在更多坏消息即将到来的危险。该股还需要由分析师重新评级，华尔街也需要消化这一消息。目前，Zillow的风险太大，无法建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464868-zilllow-stops-homebuying-stock-forecast\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow","ZG":"Zillow Class A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464868-zilllow-stops-homebuying-stock-forecast","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196366330","content_text":"Summary\n\nZillow had paused, and now will completely wind down, home buying with the division terminating over the next few quarters.\nThere is evidence of a slowing housing market and Zillow is reportedly offloading homes below cost and will take a significant asset write-down.\nZillow's stock has been in a downward cycle since February of this year, and this shows no signs of slowing.\nThe IMT segment posted positive Q3 results, which were obviously overshadowed by the news above.\nHow do these moving parts impact the company's prospects?\n\nXacto/E+ via Getty Images\nWhy Did Zillow Stop Home Buying?\nZillow Group, Inc. (Z) is a digital real estate company which operates in three divisions. First, it operates its Internet, Media, and Technology (IMT) segment which produces revenue through Premier Agent or advertising revenues from agents. Second, the mortgage segment makes money by performing loan originations and reselling mortgages. The third segment, and largest segment by revenue, is the Homes segment, commonly known as Zillow Offers. In this segment the company purchases, fixes, and resells residential real estate. Zillow announced it will be winding this segment down completely during their Q3 earnings release. The wind-down includes an asset write-down of over $300M as well.\nSo, how did we get here?\nIn mid-October, Zillow paused this segment through at least the end of 2021.\n\n We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time...\"\n\n\n Company Spokesman per Seeking Alpha, courtesy Bloomberg.\n\nThis news had both positive and negative elements. First, on the positive side, it is obvious that the iBuying program is immensely popular. Zillow reported that 1% of homes in Q2 2021 used some type of iBuying program. This may not seem significant at just 1%, however considering the United States home sales market is expected to reach $2.5 trillion in 2021, this is a very big number indeed. I also considered it positive that Zillow recognized that they were becoming overextended and paused, rather than risking serious systemic issues that would hurt customers and damage their reputation.\nThis has clear implications for competitors like Redfin (RDFN) and Opendoor (OPEN) to accumulate market share. The iBuying process is popular, but it must be managed correctly. I have seen no indication that they will cease their programs.\nFurther, this could be a reflection that the red-hot market is cooling. Zillow may have many more sellers in line than buyers. While the secular demand trends are expected to be positive, as the country is short millions of homes, the short-term could get bumpy. Two days prior to this announcement, Redfin reported a drop in both homes sales, which dropped 9%, and new listings, which fell 5%.\nOther reasons for the pause, included macroeconomic issues that many businesses are currently facing. These include supply and labor shortages that have extended the process of reselling a home.\n\n We're operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces...\n\n\n \"Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory,\"\n\n\n Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow CEO, in a statement.\n\nBecause of this, higher costs of renovations could significantly tighten margins. In fact, more than half of the homes recently purchased may be under water, as I will discuss below.\nHome prices had been on fire for the first half of this year when Zillow was a buyer. Now that the market is taking a breather, these homes are waiting for buyers and the prices are coming down. This is a serious risk that every iBuying company will face. And the risk is structural. Shown below, prices have inched down ever so slightly from the red-hot summer months. It is worrisome that Zillow has purchased in the summer, while prices were highest, and is now selling in the fall when the kids are back in school and the market has slowed.\nData by YCharts\nZillow Stock Price\nThis news caused nervous investors to accelerate the downtrend in the stock, fearing a structural difficulty that could linger. The stock fell nearly 10% total in the days around the announcement.\nData by YCharts\nHowever, cooler heads prevailed and the stock recovered somewhat thanks to a bullish hedge fund call which I discuss below. It is still stuck in a persistent downward trend since earlier this year, as shown below in the YTD chart.\nData by YCharts\nOne positive note for the stock is the interest from hedge fund manager Gil Simon of SoMa Equity Partners who recommended the stock and sees a \"compelling\" long-term opportunity. As the stock price has been cut in half since February 2021 it is difficult not to see it as oversold. Especially as certain metrics begin to resemble those from before the pandemic. This bullish call was made after the \"pause\" announcement, but before the \"wind down\" announcement.\nAt the same time, not all analysts were or are bullish. Bank of America cut its price target from $100 to $85 on October 28, 2021.\nThen, to start out November on a sour note, a KeyBanc analyst pointed to a study done by the firm that shows well over half the home scurrently listed are selling forlessthan the purchase price. This led to another selloff of more than 10% to open the month of November, pictured below. This looked to confirm some of the worst fears when the pause was implemented.\nData by YCharts\nZillow Stock Forecast\nQ3 results are almost an afterthought at this point. There are some positives in the release, however. The IMT segment posted impressive revenue and EBITDA figures. The segment has grown revenues at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 15% since 2018, or 52% total. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment has grown at a CAGR over 50% during this time and reached $836M for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This will be the key to success moving forward. Zillow also has the opportunity to focus on profitability moving forward rather than growth at any cost. The IMT segment is generally profitable, while the homebuying segment has been unprofitable historically. Mortgages have profit potential as well, having posted positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2021, albeit only $5M. It remains to be seen exactly how Zillow will move forward, but a focus on becoming cash-flow and EBITDA positive overall and the core business would be wise.\nIs Zillow Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?\nAnalysts have a gigantic spread in opinion on Zillow. Some have price targets at $145 while others have cut to just $85. The average target, according to Seeking Alpha's Wall St. Rating center is $98.50. There is much uncertainty after the announcement of the wind-down and we will likely see significant adjustments downward in the next several days.\nThis uncertainty may bring about an opportunity to invest while the stock is heavily beaten down, but the best opportunity is likely not today. There is a real danger that there is more bad news to come. The stock will also need to be rerated by analysts and the news digested by Wall Street. At this time Zillow is far too risky to initiate a position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9,"ZG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859193653,"gmtCreate":1634662817384,"gmtModify":1634695410230,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Might tank likely","listText":"Might tank likely","text":"Might tank likely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859193653","repostId":"1159487757","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823216486,"gmtCreate":1633627256484,"gmtModify":1633627256599,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Commodities inflation","listText":"Commodities inflation","text":"Commodities inflation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823216486","repostId":"1145884564","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145884564","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633616637,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145884564?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-07 22:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A global energy crisis is coming. There's no quick fix<blockquote>全球能源危机即将来临。没有快速解决办法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145884564","media":"cnn","summary":"London (CNN Business)Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predicti","content":"<p>London (CNN Business)Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predictions of $100 oil.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（CNN商业）天然气价格的天文数字上涨。煤炭成本飙升。100美元石油的预测。</blockquote></p><p> A global energy crunch caused by weather and a resurgence in demand is getting worse, stirring alarm ahead of the winter, when more energy is needed to light and heat homes. Governments around the world are trying to limit the impact on consumers, but acknowledge they may not be able to prevent bills spiking.</p><p><blockquote>由天气和需求复苏引起的全球能源紧缩正在变得越来越严重，在冬季来临之前敲响了警钟，因为冬季需要更多的能源来照明和取暖。世界各国政府都在努力限制对消费者的影响，但承认他们可能无法阻止账单飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Further complicating the picture is mounting pressure on governments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in November.</p><p><blockquote>随着世界领导人为11月的关键气候峰会做准备，各国政府面临越来越大的压力，要求他们加速向清洁能源的过渡，这让情况变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> In China, rolling blackouts for residents have already begun, while in India power stations are scrambling for coal. Consumer advocates in Europe are calling for a ban on disconnections if customers can't promptly settle what they owe.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，居民轮流停电已经开始，而在印度，发电站正在争夺煤炭。欧洲的消费者权益倡导者呼吁，如果客户不能及时偿还所欠债务，就禁止断网。</blockquote></p><p> \"This price shock is an unexpected crisis at a critical juncture,\" EU energy chief Kadri Simson said Wednesday, confirming the bloc will outline its longer-term policy response next week. \"The immediate priority should be to mitigate social impacts and protect vulnerable households.\"</p><p><blockquote>欧盟能源负责人卡德里·西姆森周三表示：“这次价格冲击是关键时刻的意外危机。”他确认欧盟将在下周概述其长期政策应对措施。“当务之急应该是减轻社会影响并保护弱势家庭。”</blockquote></p><p> In Europe, natural gas is now trading at the equivalent of $230 per barrel, in oil terms — up more than 130% since the beginning of September and more than eight times higher than the same point last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.</p><p><blockquote>根据独立商品情报服务的数据，在欧洲，天然气目前的交易价格相当于每桶230美元，自9月初以来上涨了130%以上，是去年同期的八倍多。</blockquote></p><p> In East Asia, the cost of natural gas is up 85% since the start of September, hitting roughly $204 per barrel in oil terms. Prices remain much lower in the United States, a net exporter of natural gas, but still have shot up to their highest levels in 13 years.</p><p><blockquote>在东亚，天然气成本自9月初以来上涨了85%，以石油计算达到每桶约204美元。天然气净出口国美国的价格仍然低得多，但仍飙升至13年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"A lot of it is feeding off of fear about what the winter's going to look like,\" said Nikos Tsafos, an energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He thinks that anxiety has caused the market to break away from the fundamentals of supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心的能源和地缘政治专家尼科斯·察福斯表示：“很大程度上是因为担心冬天会是什么样子。”他认为焦虑情绪导致市场脱离供需基本面。</blockquote></p><p> The frenzy to secure natural gas is also pushing up the price of coal and oil, which can be used as substitutes in some cases, but are even worse for the climate. India, which remains extremely dependent on coal, said this week that as many as 63 of its 135 coal-fired power plants have two days or less of supplies.</p><p><blockquote>获取天然气的狂热也推高了煤炭和石油的价格，在某些情况下，煤炭和石油可以用作替代品，但对气候的影响更大。仍然极度依赖煤炭的印度本周表示，其135家燃煤电厂中，多达63家的供应不足两天。</blockquote></p><p> The circumstances are causing central banks and investors to worry. Rising energy prices are contributing to inflation, which already was a major concern as the global economy tries to shake off the lingering effects of Covid-19. Dynamics over the winter could make matters worse.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况引起了央行和投资者的担忧。能源价格上涨正在加剧通货膨胀，随着全球经济试图摆脱Covid-19的挥之不去的影响，通货膨胀已经成为一个主要问题。冬季的动态可能会让事情变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No easy solution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>没有简单的解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p> The crisis is rooted in soaring demand for energy as the economic recovery from the pandemic takes hold, and a carefully calibrated system that's easily disrupted by weather events or mechanical problems.</p><p><blockquote>这场危机的根源在于，随着经济从大流行中复苏，能源需求飙升，以及精心校准的系统很容易被天气事件或机械问题破坏。</blockquote></p><p> An unusually long and cold winter earlier this year depleted stocks of natural gas in Europe. Soaring demand for energy has impeded the restocking process, which typically happens over the spring and summer.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候异常漫长而寒冷的冬季耗尽了欧洲的天然气库存。能源需求飙升阻碍了通常发生在春季和夏季的补货过程。</blockquote></p><p> China's growing appetite for liquified natural gas has meant LNG markets can't fill the gap. A decline in Russian gas exports and unusually calm winds have exacerbated the problem.</p><p><blockquote>中国对液化天然气日益增长的需求意味着液化天然气市场无法填补这一缺口。俄罗斯天然气出口的下降和异常平静的风加剧了这一问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The current surge in European energy power prices is truly unique,\" energy analysts at the Société Générale bank told clients this week. \"Never before have power prices risen so far, so fast. And we are only a few days into autumn — temperatures are still mild.\"</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行能源分析师本周对客户表示：“目前欧洲能源电价的飙升确实是独一无二的。”“电价从未上涨过如此之远、如此之快。而且我们才入秋几天——气温仍然温和。”</blockquote></p><p> The dynamics are reverberating globally. In the United States, natural gas prices have risen 47% since the beginning of August. The scramble for coal is also triggering a spike in the price many European companies have to pay for carbon credits so they can burn fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态正在全球范围内引起反响。在美国，天然气价格自8月初以来上涨了47%。对煤炭的争夺也引发了许多欧洲公司为燃烧化石燃料而必须支付的碳信用额价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the energy crunch is supporting oil prices, which hit seven-year highs in the United States this week. Bank of America recently predicted that a cold winter could push the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, past $100 per barrel. Prices haven't been that high since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>此外，能源紧缩正在支撑油价，本周美国油价触及七年高点。美国银行最近预测，寒冷的冬季可能会推动全球基准布伦特原油价格突破每桶100美元。自2014年以来，价格就没有那么高了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bcd17c239a923accbcb947fe0ffa5b5\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Jim Burkhard, who leads IHS Markit's research on crude oil, energy and mobility, said there's \"no immediate relief in sight.\"</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit原油、能源和流动性研究负责人吉姆·伯克哈德(Jim Burkhard)表示，“目前还看不到立即缓解的迹象”。</blockquote></p><p> \"There's no Saudi Arabia for gas,\" he said, referring to a single supplier that can quickly ramp up natural gas production. \"This looks like it's going to endure for the winter in the Northern Hemisphere.\"</p><p><blockquote>“没有沙特阿拉伯的天然气供应，”他说，指的是可以快速提高天然气产量的单一供应商。“这种情况看起来会持续到北半球的冬天。”</blockquote></p><p> Russia could theoretically step up. Société Générale noted that faster approval by German authorities of the politically-sensitive Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would carry gas directly from Russia to Europe, would ease significant stress.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，俄罗斯可以挺身而出。法国兴业银行指出，德国当局更快批准政治敏感的北溪2号管道，该管道将直接从俄国向欧洲输送天然气，将缓解重大压力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Russia could increase its output, saying that state-owned gas giant Gazprom has never \"refused to increase supplies to its consumers if they submit appropriate bids.\"</p><p><blockquote>周三，俄罗斯总统普京暗示俄罗斯可以增加产量，称国有天然气巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司从未“拒绝增加对其消费者的供应，如果他们提交适当的投标。”</blockquote></p><p> But Neil Chapman, senior vice president at ExxonMobil (XOM), emphasized the short-term constraints at an industry conference this week.</p><p><blockquote>但埃克森美孚（XOM）高级副总裁尼尔·查普曼（Neil Chapman）在本周的行业会议上强调了短期限制。</blockquote></p><p> \"Of course there's great concern,\" Chapman said at the virtual Energy Intelligence Forum. \"In our industry, because it's capital intensive, you can't just turn on the supply.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当然，人们非常担心，”查普曼在虚拟能源情报论坛上表示。“在我们这个行业，因为它是资本密集型的，你不能只是打开供应。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crisis with a cost</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有成本的危机</b></blockquote></p><p> The best case scenario, according to Burkhard, is that a winter with average temperatures allows pressure to lift in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Burkhard表示，最好的情况是，平均气温的冬季会让2022年第二季度的压力有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p> But severe weather in the coming months would create huge strain — particularly in countries that rely heavily on natural gas for energy production, like Italy and the United Kingdom. Britain is in a particularly tough spot because it lacks storage capacity, and is dealing with the fallout from a broken power line with France.</p><p><blockquote>但未来几个月的恶劣天气将造成巨大压力——特别是在意大利和英国等严重依赖天然气生产能源的国家。英国的处境尤其艰难，因为它缺乏存储能力，并且正在应对与法国输电线断裂的影响。</blockquote></p><p> \"The UK is arguably at the highest risk of Europe's major economies of a winter supply shortfall,\" Henning Gloystein, director of the energy, climate and resource team at consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a note to clients this week. \"Should this happen, the government would likely demand factories to reduce output and gas consumption in order to ensure household supply.\"</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司欧亚集团能源、气候和资源团队总监亨宁·格洛伊斯坦(Henning Gloystein)本周在给客户的一份报告中表示：“在欧洲主要经济体中，英国冬季供应短缺的风险可以说是最高的。”“如果发生这种情况，政府可能会要求工厂减少产量和天然气消耗，以确保家庭供应。”</blockquote></p><p> The massive jump in energy costs, which shows no signs of abating, is fanning inflation fears, which already had been forcing policymakers to carefully consider their next steps.</p><p><blockquote>能源成本的大幅上涨没有减弱的迹象，正在加剧通胀担忧，这已经迫使政策制定者仔细考虑下一步措施。</blockquote></p><p> Energy prices in developed countries rose 18% in August, the fastest pace since 2008, according to data released Tuesday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. And that was before the situation deteriorated significantly in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>经济合作与发展组织周二公布的数据显示，发达国家8月份能源价格上涨18%，为2008年以来最快涨幅。那是在最近几周局势明显恶化之前。</blockquote></p><p> Higher energy bills could crimp consumer spending on clothing or activities like dining out, hurting the comeback from the pandemic. If businesses are asked to curtail activity to conserve power, that could also hurt the economy.</p><p><blockquote>更高的能源费用可能会抑制消费者在服装或外出就餐等活动上的支出，从而损害疫情的复苏。如果企业被要求减少活动以节约电力，这也可能损害经济。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are concerns that rising gas prices will put Europe's post-pandemic economic recovery at risk,\" Gloystein said.</p><p><blockquote>Gloystein表示：“人们担心天然气价格上涨将使欧洲大流行后的经济复苏面临风险。”</blockquote></p><p> There's also anxiety that price volatility could feed public skepticism about funding for the energy transition, according to Gloystein, should consumers demand more investment in oil and gas to limit future fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>Gloystein表示，人们还担心，如果消费者要求对石油和天然气进行更多投资以限制未来的波动，价格波动可能会加剧公众对能源转型资金的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> Governments that have committed to reducing emissions are preemptively trying to send a firm message: This bolsters, not undermines, the case for investing in a broader mix of energy sources.</p><p><blockquote>承诺减少排放的政府正在先发制人地试图发出一个坚定的信息：这支持而不是削弱投资更广泛的能源组合的理由。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's very clear that with energy in the long term, it is important to invest in renewables,\" European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday. \"That gives us stable prices and more independence, because 90% of the gas is imported to the European Union.\"</p><p><blockquote>欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩周三表示：“很明显，从长远来看，投资可再生能源非常重要。”“这给了我们稳定的价格和更多的独立性，因为90%的天然气是进口到欧盟的。”</blockquote></p><p> — James Frater, Laura He, Katharina Krebs and Diksha Madhok contributed reporting.</p><p><blockquote>–James Frater、Laura He、Katharina Krebs和Diksha Madhok对报道有贡献。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A global energy crisis is coming. There's no quick fix<blockquote>全球能源危机即将来临。没有快速解决办法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA global energy crisis is coming. There's no quick fix<blockquote>全球能源危机即将来临。没有快速解决办法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-07 22:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>London (CNN Business)Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predictions of $100 oil.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（CNN商业）天然气价格的天文数字上涨。煤炭成本飙升。100美元石油的预测。</blockquote></p><p> A global energy crunch caused by weather and a resurgence in demand is getting worse, stirring alarm ahead of the winter, when more energy is needed to light and heat homes. Governments around the world are trying to limit the impact on consumers, but acknowledge they may not be able to prevent bills spiking.</p><p><blockquote>由天气和需求复苏引起的全球能源紧缩正在变得越来越严重，在冬季来临之前敲响了警钟，因为冬季需要更多的能源来照明和取暖。世界各国政府都在努力限制对消费者的影响，但承认他们可能无法阻止账单飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Further complicating the picture is mounting pressure on governments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in November.</p><p><blockquote>随着世界领导人为11月的关键气候峰会做准备，各国政府面临越来越大的压力，要求他们加速向清洁能源的过渡，这让情况变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> In China, rolling blackouts for residents have already begun, while in India power stations are scrambling for coal. Consumer advocates in Europe are calling for a ban on disconnections if customers can't promptly settle what they owe.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，居民轮流停电已经开始，而在印度，发电站正在争夺煤炭。欧洲的消费者权益倡导者呼吁，如果客户不能及时偿还所欠债务，就禁止断网。</blockquote></p><p> \"This price shock is an unexpected crisis at a critical juncture,\" EU energy chief Kadri Simson said Wednesday, confirming the bloc will outline its longer-term policy response next week. \"The immediate priority should be to mitigate social impacts and protect vulnerable households.\"</p><p><blockquote>欧盟能源负责人卡德里·西姆森周三表示：“这次价格冲击是关键时刻的意外危机。”他确认欧盟将在下周概述其长期政策应对措施。“当务之急应该是减轻社会影响并保护弱势家庭。”</blockquote></p><p> In Europe, natural gas is now trading at the equivalent of $230 per barrel, in oil terms — up more than 130% since the beginning of September and more than eight times higher than the same point last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.</p><p><blockquote>根据独立商品情报服务的数据，在欧洲，天然气目前的交易价格相当于每桶230美元，自9月初以来上涨了130%以上，是去年同期的八倍多。</blockquote></p><p> In East Asia, the cost of natural gas is up 85% since the start of September, hitting roughly $204 per barrel in oil terms. Prices remain much lower in the United States, a net exporter of natural gas, but still have shot up to their highest levels in 13 years.</p><p><blockquote>在东亚，天然气成本自9月初以来上涨了85%，以石油计算达到每桶约204美元。天然气净出口国美国的价格仍然低得多，但仍飙升至13年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"A lot of it is feeding off of fear about what the winter's going to look like,\" said Nikos Tsafos, an energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He thinks that anxiety has caused the market to break away from the fundamentals of supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心的能源和地缘政治专家尼科斯·察福斯表示：“很大程度上是因为担心冬天会是什么样子。”他认为焦虑情绪导致市场脱离供需基本面。</blockquote></p><p> The frenzy to secure natural gas is also pushing up the price of coal and oil, which can be used as substitutes in some cases, but are even worse for the climate. India, which remains extremely dependent on coal, said this week that as many as 63 of its 135 coal-fired power plants have two days or less of supplies.</p><p><blockquote>获取天然气的狂热也推高了煤炭和石油的价格，在某些情况下，煤炭和石油可以用作替代品，但对气候的影响更大。仍然极度依赖煤炭的印度本周表示，其135家燃煤电厂中，多达63家的供应不足两天。</blockquote></p><p> The circumstances are causing central banks and investors to worry. Rising energy prices are contributing to inflation, which already was a major concern as the global economy tries to shake off the lingering effects of Covid-19. Dynamics over the winter could make matters worse.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况引起了央行和投资者的担忧。能源价格上涨正在加剧通货膨胀，随着全球经济试图摆脱Covid-19的挥之不去的影响，通货膨胀已经成为一个主要问题。冬季的动态可能会让事情变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No easy solution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>没有简单的解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p> The crisis is rooted in soaring demand for energy as the economic recovery from the pandemic takes hold, and a carefully calibrated system that's easily disrupted by weather events or mechanical problems.</p><p><blockquote>这场危机的根源在于，随着经济从大流行中复苏，能源需求飙升，以及精心校准的系统很容易被天气事件或机械问题破坏。</blockquote></p><p> An unusually long and cold winter earlier this year depleted stocks of natural gas in Europe. Soaring demand for energy has impeded the restocking process, which typically happens over the spring and summer.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候异常漫长而寒冷的冬季耗尽了欧洲的天然气库存。能源需求飙升阻碍了通常发生在春季和夏季的补货过程。</blockquote></p><p> China's growing appetite for liquified natural gas has meant LNG markets can't fill the gap. A decline in Russian gas exports and unusually calm winds have exacerbated the problem.</p><p><blockquote>中国对液化天然气日益增长的需求意味着液化天然气市场无法填补这一缺口。俄罗斯天然气出口的下降和异常平静的风加剧了这一问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The current surge in European energy power prices is truly unique,\" energy analysts at the Société Générale bank told clients this week. \"Never before have power prices risen so far, so fast. And we are only a few days into autumn — temperatures are still mild.\"</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行能源分析师本周对客户表示：“目前欧洲能源电价的飙升确实是独一无二的。”“电价从未上涨过如此之远、如此之快。而且我们才入秋几天——气温仍然温和。”</blockquote></p><p> The dynamics are reverberating globally. In the United States, natural gas prices have risen 47% since the beginning of August. The scramble for coal is also triggering a spike in the price many European companies have to pay for carbon credits so they can burn fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态正在全球范围内引起反响。在美国，天然气价格自8月初以来上涨了47%。对煤炭的争夺也引发了许多欧洲公司为燃烧化石燃料而必须支付的碳信用额价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the energy crunch is supporting oil prices, which hit seven-year highs in the United States this week. Bank of America recently predicted that a cold winter could push the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, past $100 per barrel. Prices haven't been that high since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>此外，能源紧缩正在支撑油价，本周美国油价触及七年高点。美国银行最近预测，寒冷的冬季可能会推动全球基准布伦特原油价格突破每桶100美元。自2014年以来，价格就没有那么高了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bcd17c239a923accbcb947fe0ffa5b5\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Jim Burkhard, who leads IHS Markit's research on crude oil, energy and mobility, said there's \"no immediate relief in sight.\"</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit原油、能源和流动性研究负责人吉姆·伯克哈德(Jim Burkhard)表示，“目前还看不到立即缓解的迹象”。</blockquote></p><p> \"There's no Saudi Arabia for gas,\" he said, referring to a single supplier that can quickly ramp up natural gas production. \"This looks like it's going to endure for the winter in the Northern Hemisphere.\"</p><p><blockquote>“没有沙特阿拉伯的天然气供应，”他说，指的是可以快速提高天然气产量的单一供应商。“这种情况看起来会持续到北半球的冬天。”</blockquote></p><p> Russia could theoretically step up. Société Générale noted that faster approval by German authorities of the politically-sensitive Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would carry gas directly from Russia to Europe, would ease significant stress.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，俄罗斯可以挺身而出。法国兴业银行指出，德国当局更快批准政治敏感的北溪2号管道，该管道将直接从俄国向欧洲输送天然气，将缓解重大压力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Russia could increase its output, saying that state-owned gas giant Gazprom has never \"refused to increase supplies to its consumers if they submit appropriate bids.\"</p><p><blockquote>周三，俄罗斯总统普京暗示俄罗斯可以增加产量，称国有天然气巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司从未“拒绝增加对其消费者的供应，如果他们提交适当的投标。”</blockquote></p><p> But Neil Chapman, senior vice president at ExxonMobil (XOM), emphasized the short-term constraints at an industry conference this week.</p><p><blockquote>但埃克森美孚（XOM）高级副总裁尼尔·查普曼（Neil Chapman）在本周的行业会议上强调了短期限制。</blockquote></p><p> \"Of course there's great concern,\" Chapman said at the virtual Energy Intelligence Forum. \"In our industry, because it's capital intensive, you can't just turn on the supply.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当然，人们非常担心，”查普曼在虚拟能源情报论坛上表示。“在我们这个行业，因为它是资本密集型的，你不能只是打开供应。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crisis with a cost</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有成本的危机</b></blockquote></p><p> The best case scenario, according to Burkhard, is that a winter with average temperatures allows pressure to lift in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Burkhard表示，最好的情况是，平均气温的冬季会让2022年第二季度的压力有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p> But severe weather in the coming months would create huge strain — particularly in countries that rely heavily on natural gas for energy production, like Italy and the United Kingdom. Britain is in a particularly tough spot because it lacks storage capacity, and is dealing with the fallout from a broken power line with France.</p><p><blockquote>但未来几个月的恶劣天气将造成巨大压力——特别是在意大利和英国等严重依赖天然气生产能源的国家。英国的处境尤其艰难，因为它缺乏存储能力，并且正在应对与法国输电线断裂的影响。</blockquote></p><p> \"The UK is arguably at the highest risk of Europe's major economies of a winter supply shortfall,\" Henning Gloystein, director of the energy, climate and resource team at consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a note to clients this week. \"Should this happen, the government would likely demand factories to reduce output and gas consumption in order to ensure household supply.\"</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司欧亚集团能源、气候和资源团队总监亨宁·格洛伊斯坦(Henning Gloystein)本周在给客户的一份报告中表示：“在欧洲主要经济体中，英国冬季供应短缺的风险可以说是最高的。”“如果发生这种情况，政府可能会要求工厂减少产量和天然气消耗，以确保家庭供应。”</blockquote></p><p> The massive jump in energy costs, which shows no signs of abating, is fanning inflation fears, which already had been forcing policymakers to carefully consider their next steps.</p><p><blockquote>能源成本的大幅上涨没有减弱的迹象，正在加剧通胀担忧，这已经迫使政策制定者仔细考虑下一步措施。</blockquote></p><p> Energy prices in developed countries rose 18% in August, the fastest pace since 2008, according to data released Tuesday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. And that was before the situation deteriorated significantly in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>经济合作与发展组织周二公布的数据显示，发达国家8月份能源价格上涨18%，为2008年以来最快涨幅。那是在最近几周局势明显恶化之前。</blockquote></p><p> Higher energy bills could crimp consumer spending on clothing or activities like dining out, hurting the comeback from the pandemic. If businesses are asked to curtail activity to conserve power, that could also hurt the economy.</p><p><blockquote>更高的能源费用可能会抑制消费者在服装或外出就餐等活动上的支出，从而损害疫情的复苏。如果企业被要求减少活动以节约电力，这也可能损害经济。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are concerns that rising gas prices will put Europe's post-pandemic economic recovery at risk,\" Gloystein said.</p><p><blockquote>Gloystein表示：“人们担心天然气价格上涨将使欧洲大流行后的经济复苏面临风险。”</blockquote></p><p> There's also anxiety that price volatility could feed public skepticism about funding for the energy transition, according to Gloystein, should consumers demand more investment in oil and gas to limit future fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>Gloystein表示，人们还担心，如果消费者要求对石油和天然气进行更多投资以限制未来的波动，价格波动可能会加剧公众对能源转型资金的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> Governments that have committed to reducing emissions are preemptively trying to send a firm message: This bolsters, not undermines, the case for investing in a broader mix of energy sources.</p><p><blockquote>承诺减少排放的政府正在先发制人地试图发出一个坚定的信息：这支持而不是削弱投资更广泛的能源组合的理由。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's very clear that with energy in the long term, it is important to invest in renewables,\" European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday. \"That gives us stable prices and more independence, because 90% of the gas is imported to the European Union.\"</p><p><blockquote>欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩周三表示：“很明显，从长远来看，投资可再生能源非常重要。”“这给了我们稳定的价格和更多的独立性，因为90%的天然气是进口到欧盟的。”</blockquote></p><p> — James Frater, Laura He, Katharina Krebs and Diksha Madhok contributed reporting.</p><p><blockquote>–James Frater、Laura He、Katharina Krebs和Diksha Madhok对报道有贡献。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/07/business/global-energy-crisis/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/07/business/global-energy-crisis/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145884564","content_text":"London (CNN Business)Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predictions of $100 oil.\nA global energy crunch caused by weather and a resurgence in demand is getting worse, stirring alarm ahead of the winter, when more energy is needed to light and heat homes. Governments around the world are trying to limit the impact on consumers, but acknowledge they may not be able to prevent bills spiking.\nFurther complicating the picture is mounting pressure on governments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in November.\nIn China, rolling blackouts for residents have already begun, while in India power stations are scrambling for coal. Consumer advocates in Europe are calling for a ban on disconnections if customers can't promptly settle what they owe.\n\"This price shock is an unexpected crisis at a critical juncture,\" EU energy chief Kadri Simson said Wednesday, confirming the bloc will outline its longer-term policy response next week. \"The immediate priority should be to mitigate social impacts and protect vulnerable households.\"\nIn Europe, natural gas is now trading at the equivalent of $230 per barrel, in oil terms — up more than 130% since the beginning of September and more than eight times higher than the same point last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.\nIn East Asia, the cost of natural gas is up 85% since the start of September, hitting roughly $204 per barrel in oil terms. Prices remain much lower in the United States, a net exporter of natural gas, but still have shot up to their highest levels in 13 years.\n\"A lot of it is feeding off of fear about what the winter's going to look like,\" said Nikos Tsafos, an energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He thinks that anxiety has caused the market to break away from the fundamentals of supply and demand.\nThe frenzy to secure natural gas is also pushing up the price of coal and oil, which can be used as substitutes in some cases, but are even worse for the climate. India, which remains extremely dependent on coal, said this week that as many as 63 of its 135 coal-fired power plants have two days or less of supplies.\nThe circumstances are causing central banks and investors to worry. Rising energy prices are contributing to inflation, which already was a major concern as the global economy tries to shake off the lingering effects of Covid-19. Dynamics over the winter could make matters worse.\nNo easy solution\nThe crisis is rooted in soaring demand for energy as the economic recovery from the pandemic takes hold, and a carefully calibrated system that's easily disrupted by weather events or mechanical problems.\nAn unusually long and cold winter earlier this year depleted stocks of natural gas in Europe. Soaring demand for energy has impeded the restocking process, which typically happens over the spring and summer.\nChina's growing appetite for liquified natural gas has meant LNG markets can't fill the gap. A decline in Russian gas exports and unusually calm winds have exacerbated the problem.\n\"The current surge in European energy power prices is truly unique,\" energy analysts at the Société Générale bank told clients this week. \"Never before have power prices risen so far, so fast. And we are only a few days into autumn — temperatures are still mild.\"\nThe dynamics are reverberating globally. In the United States, natural gas prices have risen 47% since the beginning of August. The scramble for coal is also triggering a spike in the price many European companies have to pay for carbon credits so they can burn fossil fuels.\nAdditionally, the energy crunch is supporting oil prices, which hit seven-year highs in the United States this week. Bank of America recently predicted that a cold winter could push the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, past $100 per barrel. Prices haven't been that high since 2014.\n\nJim Burkhard, who leads IHS Markit's research on crude oil, energy and mobility, said there's \"no immediate relief in sight.\"\n\"There's no Saudi Arabia for gas,\" he said, referring to a single supplier that can quickly ramp up natural gas production. \"This looks like it's going to endure for the winter in the Northern Hemisphere.\"\nRussia could theoretically step up. Société Générale noted that faster approval by German authorities of the politically-sensitive Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would carry gas directly from Russia to Europe, would ease significant stress.\nOn Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Russia could increase its output, saying that state-owned gas giant Gazprom has never \"refused to increase supplies to its consumers if they submit appropriate bids.\"\nBut Neil Chapman, senior vice president at ExxonMobil (XOM), emphasized the short-term constraints at an industry conference this week.\n\"Of course there's great concern,\" Chapman said at the virtual Energy Intelligence Forum. \"In our industry, because it's capital intensive, you can't just turn on the supply.\"\nCrisis with a cost\nThe best case scenario, according to Burkhard, is that a winter with average temperatures allows pressure to lift in the second quarter of 2022.\nBut severe weather in the coming months would create huge strain — particularly in countries that rely heavily on natural gas for energy production, like Italy and the United Kingdom. Britain is in a particularly tough spot because it lacks storage capacity, and is dealing with the fallout from a broken power line with France.\n\"The UK is arguably at the highest risk of Europe's major economies of a winter supply shortfall,\" Henning Gloystein, director of the energy, climate and resource team at consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a note to clients this week. \"Should this happen, the government would likely demand factories to reduce output and gas consumption in order to ensure household supply.\"\nThe massive jump in energy costs, which shows no signs of abating, is fanning inflation fears, which already had been forcing policymakers to carefully consider their next steps.\nEnergy prices in developed countries rose 18% in August, the fastest pace since 2008, according to data released Tuesday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. And that was before the situation deteriorated significantly in recent weeks.\nHigher energy bills could crimp consumer spending on clothing or activities like dining out, hurting the comeback from the pandemic. If businesses are asked to curtail activity to conserve power, that could also hurt the economy.\n\"There are concerns that rising gas prices will put Europe's post-pandemic economic recovery at risk,\" Gloystein said.\nThere's also anxiety that price volatility could feed public skepticism about funding for the energy transition, according to Gloystein, should consumers demand more investment in oil and gas to limit future fluctuations.\nGovernments that have committed to reducing emissions are preemptively trying to send a firm message: This bolsters, not undermines, the case for investing in a broader mix of energy sources.\n\"It's very clear that with energy in the long term, it is important to invest in renewables,\" European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday. \"That gives us stable prices and more independence, because 90% of the gas is imported to the European Union.\"\n— James Frater, Laura He, Katharina Krebs and Diksha Madhok contributed reporting.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862125049,"gmtCreate":1632845694662,"gmtModify":1632845694662,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fifa","listText":"Fifa","text":"Fifa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862125049","repostId":"1112583450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112583450","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632842868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112583450?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity<blockquote>艺电：基本面持续强劲，逢低买入机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112583450","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nElectronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.\nEA recently ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Electronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.</li>  <li>EA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.</li>  <li>EA has strengthened its mobile gaming talent over the past year and has a stronger pipeline for mobile revenue than ever.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8344f36d2d49a7e957c065340be2cb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与强劲的2020年相比，艺电第一季度财报业绩稳健。</li><li>艺电最近推迟了秋季发布的《战地2042》，但此举提供了一个强有力的买入机会。</li><li>EA在过去一年中增强了其移动游戏人才，并拥有比以往任何时候都更强大的移动收入渠道。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Electronic Arts (EA) is a household name with great fundamentals. 70%+ long-term margins and stable revenue streams have led to strong shareholder returns over time. The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the&nbsp;delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>电子艺界（EA）是一个家喻户晓的名字，有着良好的基本面。随着时间的推移，70%以上的长期利润率和稳定的收入流为股东带来了强劲的回报。该股自2018年中期以来表现不佳，但现在游戏公司的定价接近价值股水平。由于今年的大型电影《战地2042》推迟到11月19日，他们的股价最近大幅下跌。这为EA股票提供了一个很好的切入点，其中大部分销售仍然能够在稍后的发布日期捕获。EA拥有出色的技术设置，自2018年中期首次达到该水平以来，该股在2021年多次接近148.97美元的历史高点。如下所示，过去一年收入大幅增长至5.7 B，2022年GAAP收入指引为68亿美元，但该股自2018年中期以来仍在盘整。当这些高点被突破时，这就有可能大幅上涨。更高的低点令人鼓舞，这可能是突破历史高点之前最后一次大幅下跌15%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7506972cadc0be0701c77d20ad10d4ff\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Fiscal Q1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>伟大的财政第一季度</b></blockquote></p><p> Electronic Arts had a strong&nbsp;Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.</p><p><blockquote>即使与非常强劲的2020年相比，艺电第一季度的财报也很强劲。净预订量是衡量业务业绩的最准确指标，比上一年增长了3%，达到61.36亿美元。2022年的营业额指导为74亿美元，即增长20.6%。收入跟随账单，因此我们将从最近的强劲业绩中看到明年的收入和盈利流动。Madden、NHL，尤其是FIFA的体育特许经营权继续以稳定的表现引领EA。在过去的一年里，体育特许经营共有1.4亿玩家，其中超过3100万人玩了最新的FIFA 2021版本。体育是可预测且受欢迎的游戏，随着时间的推移，这会增加收入和收益的稳定性。FUT比赛仍在强劲增长，Q1比去年增长了48%。《战地》的延迟可能会损害账单数量，因为部分销售额将流失到动视暴雪(ATVI)的《看涨期权使命先锋》等竞争对手手中。然而，近年来的游戏延迟并没有对这些游戏的销售产生太大负面影响。这些由于严格的截止日期而导致的延迟在业内非常常见，我认为EA股票对一个月延迟的负面反应有些过头了。与此同时，Apex Legends已经看到了复苏，许多玩家回到了游戏中，它被证明是一个比许多人预期的更持久的标题。这款游戏实际上是最近一个赛季拥有最多玩家的游戏，对于一款已经推出几年的游戏来说，这令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63da6c1ee87d6951184b6ba11ea0ab01\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，本财年的账单增长一直不稳定，但总体而言，我预计随着时间的推移，增长将达到高个位数到低两位数。2021财年的增长至少部分是由于冠状病毒，尽管那里的环境仍然非常有利。全球范围内对旅行和其他娱乐的限制仍然是游戏时间的重要推动力。包括微交易和游戏通行证在内的直播服务继续成为EA业务的重要组成部分。国际足联的成功是其中很大一部分，EA宣布战地2042每年有4个赛季可以购买通行证。这应该会在游戏发布后的几年里提供稳定的收入来源。宣布的战场门户允许人们使用旧版本创建新地图，这似乎很好地促进了付费季票的参与。新的危险区模式增加了额外的内容，以及逃离塔尔科夫式的小队生存场景。有一点是清楚的——EA在《战地2042》上投入了更多的努力，并在2年多的时间里保持了它的趣味性，而不是过去的几个系列。艺电证实这将是每隔一年发布一次，像战地门户这样的东西可能会与多个版本一起工作。这些，加上即将推出的新手机战场游戏，让我更加看好未来从《使命看涨期权》中分一杯羹。一些投资者可能会担心游戏延迟后2022财年74亿美元的账单数字，但符合这一标准应该会在未来12个月内给该股带来非常显着的提振。</blockquote></p><p> The company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还有一项重要的股票回购计划，有助于在股价下跌期间支撑股价。EA去年回购了9.76亿股股票，略低于360亿美元总市值的3%。由于《战地2042》的延迟，该股再次下跌，预计未来几周将出现更大规模的回购活动。EA还支付每季度17美分的小额股息。虽然这是0.5%左右的收益率，但随着时间的推移，它可以显着增长，并显示了管理团队对股东的持续承诺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Continued Growth in Mobile</b></p><p><blockquote><b>移动业务持续增长</b></blockquote></p><p> EA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the&nbsp;purchase of Playdemic&nbsp;for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>艺电一直试图在移动领域赶上动视暴雪等竞争对手。艺电已经在今年早些时候收购了Glu Mobile，以扩大他们不断增长的休闲手机游戏。现在，EA最近以14亿美元完成了对《高尔夫冲突》制作方Playdemic的收购。根据Sensor Tower的数据，在强劲的疫情时期，Golf Clash的收入高达1.328亿美元。对于一款拥有非常强大且不断增长的用户群以及背后有一支才华横溢的团队的游戏来说，10倍的销售额是一个合理的价格。艺电正在考虑长远，Playdemic可能会在未来几年开发艺电稳定的其他IP。他们在电话会议上暗示，他们已经获得了全球Madden或FIFA手机游戏的许可——这对投资者来说是一个诱人的想法。EA的移动业务正在增长，2021年将比2019年的水平增长16%，但他们继续在这一领域大力投资。休闲游戏有很长的尾巴，由于与游戏创作相关的运营费用较低，因此是最赚钱的游戏之一。艺电还宣布，他们正在为流行的Apex传奇皇家战役游戏制作一款手机游戏，以及前面提到的战地游戏。这很可能是在看到动视暴雪凭借其移动版《使命看涨期权》游戏取得成功之后，而且事实上他们还没有将许多移动版特许经营权货币化。对于EA来说，这是一个真正将移动业务作为业务一部分发展的机会，去年移动业务仅占预订量的13.5%。然而，移动业务的增长率将在第一财季加速至20%，并可能在未来几年带来巨大推动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不持有任何EA股票的人来说，最近的下跌是一个绝佳的买入机会。该股一直在突破150点附近的历史高位，当突破上行时，应该会出现大幅上涨。它的交易价格为非常便宜的16倍远期市盈率，使其在当前市场上接近价值股票的地位。任何额外的封锁或限制也将利好EA，因为许多年轻人继续在游戏上投入巨资。通过收购和使用现有知识产权，EA专注于他们在移动领域的弱点，为自己的长期发展做好了准备。移动是EA明显落后于主要竞争对手的领域，但2021年采取的举措将在未来几年带来巨大红利——股东可能会受益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Electronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity<blockquote>艺电：基本面持续强劲，逢低买入机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity<blockquote>艺电：基本面持续强劲，逢低买入机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Electronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.</li>  <li>EA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.</li>  <li>EA has strengthened its mobile gaming talent over the past year and has a stronger pipeline for mobile revenue than ever.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8344f36d2d49a7e957c065340be2cb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与强劲的2020年相比，艺电第一季度财报业绩稳健。</li><li>艺电最近推迟了秋季发布的《战地2042》，但此举提供了一个强有力的买入机会。</li><li>EA在过去一年中增强了其移动游戏人才，并拥有比以往任何时候都更强大的移动收入渠道。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Electronic Arts (EA) is a household name with great fundamentals. 70%+ long-term margins and stable revenue streams have led to strong shareholder returns over time. The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the&nbsp;delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>电子艺界（EA）是一个家喻户晓的名字，有着良好的基本面。随着时间的推移，70%以上的长期利润率和稳定的收入流为股东带来了强劲的回报。该股自2018年中期以来表现不佳，但现在游戏公司的定价接近价值股水平。由于今年的大型电影《战地2042》推迟到11月19日，他们的股价最近大幅下跌。这为EA股票提供了一个很好的切入点，其中大部分销售仍然能够在稍后的发布日期捕获。EA拥有出色的技术设置，自2018年中期首次达到该水平以来，该股在2021年多次接近148.97美元的历史高点。如下所示，过去一年收入大幅增长至5.7 B，2022年GAAP收入指引为68亿美元，但该股自2018年中期以来仍在盘整。当这些高点被突破时，这就有可能大幅上涨。更高的低点令人鼓舞，这可能是突破历史高点之前最后一次大幅下跌15%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7506972cadc0be0701c77d20ad10d4ff\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Fiscal Q1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>伟大的财政第一季度</b></blockquote></p><p> Electronic Arts had a strong&nbsp;Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.</p><p><blockquote>即使与非常强劲的2020年相比，艺电第一季度的财报也很强劲。净预订量是衡量业务业绩的最准确指标，比上一年增长了3%，达到61.36亿美元。2022年的营业额指导为74亿美元，即增长20.6%。收入跟随账单，因此我们将从最近的强劲业绩中看到明年的收入和盈利流动。Madden、NHL，尤其是FIFA的体育特许经营权继续以稳定的表现引领EA。在过去的一年里，体育特许经营共有1.4亿玩家，其中超过3100万人玩了最新的FIFA 2021版本。体育是可预测且受欢迎的游戏，随着时间的推移，这会增加收入和收益的稳定性。FUT比赛仍在强劲增长，Q1比去年增长了48%。《战地》的延迟可能会损害账单数量，因为部分销售额将流失到动视暴雪(ATVI)的《看涨期权使命先锋》等竞争对手手中。然而，近年来的游戏延迟并没有对这些游戏的销售产生太大负面影响。这些由于严格的截止日期而导致的延迟在业内非常常见，我认为EA股票对一个月延迟的负面反应有些过头了。与此同时，Apex Legends已经看到了复苏，许多玩家回到了游戏中，它被证明是一个比许多人预期的更持久的标题。这款游戏实际上是最近一个赛季拥有最多玩家的游戏，对于一款已经推出几年的游戏来说，这令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63da6c1ee87d6951184b6ba11ea0ab01\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，本财年的账单增长一直不稳定，但总体而言，我预计随着时间的推移，增长将达到高个位数到低两位数。2021财年的增长至少部分是由于冠状病毒，尽管那里的环境仍然非常有利。全球范围内对旅行和其他娱乐的限制仍然是游戏时间的重要推动力。包括微交易和游戏通行证在内的直播服务继续成为EA业务的重要组成部分。国际足联的成功是其中很大一部分，EA宣布战地2042每年有4个赛季可以购买通行证。这应该会在游戏发布后的几年里提供稳定的收入来源。宣布的战场门户允许人们使用旧版本创建新地图，这似乎很好地促进了付费季票的参与。新的危险区模式增加了额外的内容，以及逃离塔尔科夫式的小队生存场景。有一点是清楚的——EA在《战地2042》上投入了更多的努力，并在2年多的时间里保持了它的趣味性，而不是过去的几个系列。艺电证实这将是每隔一年发布一次，像战地门户这样的东西可能会与多个版本一起工作。这些，加上即将推出的新手机战场游戏，让我更加看好未来从《使命看涨期权》中分一杯羹。一些投资者可能会担心游戏延迟后2022财年74亿美元的账单数字，但符合这一标准应该会在未来12个月内给该股带来非常显着的提振。</blockquote></p><p> The company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还有一项重要的股票回购计划，有助于在股价下跌期间支撑股价。EA去年回购了9.76亿股股票，略低于360亿美元总市值的3%。由于《战地2042》的延迟，该股再次下跌，预计未来几周将出现更大规模的回购活动。EA还支付每季度17美分的小额股息。虽然这是0.5%左右的收益率，但随着时间的推移，它可以显着增长，并显示了管理团队对股东的持续承诺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Continued Growth in Mobile</b></p><p><blockquote><b>移动业务持续增长</b></blockquote></p><p> EA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the&nbsp;purchase of Playdemic&nbsp;for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>艺电一直试图在移动领域赶上动视暴雪等竞争对手。艺电已经在今年早些时候收购了Glu Mobile，以扩大他们不断增长的休闲手机游戏。现在，EA最近以14亿美元完成了对《高尔夫冲突》制作方Playdemic的收购。根据Sensor Tower的数据，在强劲的疫情时期，Golf Clash的收入高达1.328亿美元。对于一款拥有非常强大且不断增长的用户群以及背后有一支才华横溢的团队的游戏来说，10倍的销售额是一个合理的价格。艺电正在考虑长远，Playdemic可能会在未来几年开发艺电稳定的其他IP。他们在电话会议上暗示，他们已经获得了全球Madden或FIFA手机游戏的许可——这对投资者来说是一个诱人的想法。EA的移动业务正在增长，2021年将比2019年的水平增长16%，但他们继续在这一领域大力投资。休闲游戏有很长的尾巴，由于与游戏创作相关的运营费用较低，因此是最赚钱的游戏之一。艺电还宣布，他们正在为流行的Apex传奇皇家战役游戏制作一款手机游戏，以及前面提到的战地游戏。这很可能是在看到动视暴雪凭借其移动版《使命看涨期权》游戏取得成功之后，而且事实上他们还没有将许多移动版特许经营权货币化。对于EA来说，这是一个真正将移动业务作为业务一部分发展的机会，去年移动业务仅占预订量的13.5%。然而，移动业务的增长率将在第一财季加速至20%，并可能在未来几年带来巨大推动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不持有任何EA股票的人来说，最近的下跌是一个绝佳的买入机会。该股一直在突破150点附近的历史高位，当突破上行时，应该会出现大幅上涨。它的交易价格为非常便宜的16倍远期市盈率，使其在当前市场上接近价值股票的地位。任何额外的封锁或限制也将利好EA，因为许多年轻人继续在游戏上投入巨资。通过收购和使用现有知识产权，EA专注于他们在移动领域的弱点，为自己的长期发展做好了准备。移动是EA明显落后于主要竞争对手的领域，但2021年采取的举措将在未来几年带来巨大红利——股东可能会受益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457473-electronic-arts-strong-fundamentals-continue-amid-dip-buying-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EA":"艺电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457473-electronic-arts-strong-fundamentals-continue-amid-dip-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112583450","content_text":"Summary\n\nElectronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.\nEA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.\nEA has strengthened its mobile gaming talent over the past year and has a stronger pipeline for mobile revenue than ever.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nElectronic Arts (EA) is a household name with great fundamentals. 70%+ long-term margins and stable revenue streams have led to strong shareholder returns over time. The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.\nData by YCharts\nGreat Fiscal Q1\nElectronic Arts had a strong Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.\n\nAs you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.\nThe company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.\nContinued Growth in Mobile\nEA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the purchase of Playdemic for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.\nConclusion\nThe recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886482205,"gmtCreate":1631616654407,"gmtModify":1631888693423,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Worth looking at","listText":"Worth looking at","text":"Worth looking at","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886482205","repostId":"1198389893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198389893","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631610686,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198389893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Akerna shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading<blockquote>Akerna股价在盘前交易中飙升超过9%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198389893","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Cannabis industry software provider Akerna shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading on Akerna","content":"<p>Cannabis industry software provider&nbsp;Akerna shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading&nbsp;on&nbsp;Akerna to acquire 365 Cannabis for $17M.</p><p><blockquote>大麻行业软件提供商Akerna股价在Akerna以1700万美元收购365 Cannabis的盘前交易中飙升超过9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92af46135cfe248886d61f0dfe07deb1\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cannabis industry enterprise resource planning software technology provider Akerna&nbsp;will&nbsp;acquire business management software system 365 Cannabis in a $17M deal.</li>  <li>Akerna will pay $4M in cash and $13M in stock, with a potential earn-out of $8M. The transaction is expected to close in Q4.</li>  <li>Akerna has the industry's first seed-to-sale enterprise software technology, MJ Platform,&nbsp;and recently launched Akerna Connect, an ecommerce software suite of digital marketing tools to retailers and dispensaries.</li>  <li>365 Cannabis is built on Microsoft's&nbsp;Dynamics 365 Business Central.</li>  <li>Cannabis 365 clients include&nbsp;Cannabis 365 clients include Pharmacann, Nectar, Revolution, Sundial, ans Kiaro.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>大麻行业企业资源规划软件技术提供商Akerna将以1700万美元收购商业管理软件系统365 Cannabis。</li><li>Akerna将支付400万美元现金和1300万美元股票，潜在收益为800万美元。该交易预计将于第四季度完成。</li><li>Akerna拥有业内第一个从种子到销售的企业软件技术MJ Platform，最近推出了Akerna Connect，这是一个面向零售商和药房的数字营销工具的电子商务软件套件。</li><li>365 Cannabis基于微软的Dynamics 365 Business Central构建。</li><li>大麻365客户包括大麻365客户包括Pharmacann，Nectar，Revolution，Sundial，ans Kiaro。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Akerna shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading<blockquote>Akerna股价在盘前交易中飙升超过9%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAkerna shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading<blockquote>Akerna股价在盘前交易中飙升超过9%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-14 17:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cannabis industry software provider&nbsp;Akerna shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading&nbsp;on&nbsp;Akerna to acquire 365 Cannabis for $17M.</p><p><blockquote>大麻行业软件提供商Akerna股价在Akerna以1700万美元收购365 Cannabis的盘前交易中飙升超过9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92af46135cfe248886d61f0dfe07deb1\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cannabis industry enterprise resource planning software technology provider Akerna&nbsp;will&nbsp;acquire business management software system 365 Cannabis in a $17M deal.</li>  <li>Akerna will pay $4M in cash and $13M in stock, with a potential earn-out of $8M. The transaction is expected to close in Q4.</li>  <li>Akerna has the industry's first seed-to-sale enterprise software technology, MJ Platform,&nbsp;and recently launched Akerna Connect, an ecommerce software suite of digital marketing tools to retailers and dispensaries.</li>  <li>365 Cannabis is built on Microsoft's&nbsp;Dynamics 365 Business Central.</li>  <li>Cannabis 365 clients include&nbsp;Cannabis 365 clients include Pharmacann, Nectar, Revolution, Sundial, ans Kiaro.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>大麻行业企业资源规划软件技术提供商Akerna将以1700万美元收购商业管理软件系统365 Cannabis。</li><li>Akerna将支付400万美元现金和1300万美元股票，潜在收益为800万美元。该交易预计将于第四季度完成。</li><li>Akerna拥有业内第一个从种子到销售的企业软件技术MJ Platform，最近推出了Akerna Connect，这是一个面向零售商和药房的数字营销工具的电子商务软件套件。</li><li>365 Cannabis基于微软的Dynamics 365 Business Central构建。</li><li>大麻365客户包括大麻365客户包括Pharmacann，Nectar，Revolution，Sundial，ans Kiaro。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198389893","content_text":"Cannabis industry software provider Akerna shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading on Akerna to acquire 365 Cannabis for $17M.\n\n\nCannabis industry enterprise resource planning software technology provider Akerna will acquire business management software system 365 Cannabis in a $17M deal.\nAkerna will pay $4M in cash and $13M in stock, with a potential earn-out of $8M. The transaction is expected to close in Q4.\nAkerna has the industry's first seed-to-sale enterprise software technology, MJ Platform, and recently launched Akerna Connect, an ecommerce software suite of digital marketing tools to retailers and dispensaries.\n365 Cannabis is built on Microsoft's Dynamics 365 Business Central.\nCannabis 365 clients include Cannabis 365 clients include Pharmacann, Nectar, Revolution, Sundial, ans Kiaro.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KERN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886482382,"gmtCreate":1631616634646,"gmtModify":1631888693436,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oppsie dope","listText":"Oppsie dope","text":"Oppsie dope","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886482382","repostId":"2167630550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880861716,"gmtCreate":1631033046235,"gmtModify":1631888693450,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wait and see","listText":"Wait and see","text":"Wait and see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880861716","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816551099,"gmtCreate":1630508751411,"gmtModify":1631888693461,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meme ftw","listText":"Meme ftw","text":"Meme ftw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816551099","repostId":"2164281847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831323787,"gmtCreate":1629290270049,"gmtModify":1631888693475,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Irrational dip","listText":"Irrational dip","text":"Irrational dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831323787","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172213906,"gmtCreate":1626962093005,"gmtModify":1631888693488,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172213906","repostId":"1175825882","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172219545,"gmtCreate":1626962079287,"gmtModify":1631888693501,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172219545","repostId":"1199303246","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199303246","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626960676,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199303246?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数上升后，美国股市周四开盘涨跌不一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199303246","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time .FFIE soared over 15% in morning trading. Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell at Nasdaq. LIVE<<. Texas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.","content":"<p>(July 22)&nbsp;US stocks&nbsp;open mixed on Thursday,&nbsp;after rise in jobless claims.</p><p><blockquote>（7月22日）美国股市周四开盘涨跌不一，初请失业金人数上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0d932e254fb8e9566e8d4e3df9c245\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time (well above the prior week's 368k and expectations of a 350k print).</p><p><blockquote>上周首次申请失业救济人数大幅上升，有41.9万美国人首次申请失业救济（远高于前一周的36.8万人和35万人的预期）。</blockquote></p><p> FFIE soared over 15% in morning trading.&nbsp;Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell&nbsp;at&nbsp;Nasdaq.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266938664455%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>LIVE&lt;&lt;</b></a></p><p><blockquote>FFIE早盘飙升逾15%。法拉第未来将在纳斯达克敲响开盘钟声。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266938664455%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>活的&lt;&lt;</b></a></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f435b9d26d1f4f62de59b3704700672e\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Texas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>德州仪器(Texas Instruments)将给科技股带来压力，早盘下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acafdc0c4a9bd231979337ca168df53\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数上升后，美国股市周四开盘涨跌不一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数上升后，美国股市周四开盘涨跌不一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-22 21:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 22)&nbsp;US stocks&nbsp;open mixed on Thursday,&nbsp;after rise in jobless claims.</p><p><blockquote>（7月22日）美国股市周四开盘涨跌不一，初请失业金人数上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0d932e254fb8e9566e8d4e3df9c245\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time (well above the prior week's 368k and expectations of a 350k print).</p><p><blockquote>上周首次申请失业救济人数大幅上升，有41.9万美国人首次申请失业救济（远高于前一周的36.8万人和35万人的预期）。</blockquote></p><p> FFIE soared over 15% in morning trading.&nbsp;Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell&nbsp;at&nbsp;Nasdaq.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266938664455%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>LIVE&lt;&lt;</b></a></p><p><blockquote>FFIE早盘飙升逾15%。法拉第未来将在纳斯达克敲响开盘钟声。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266938664455%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>活的&lt;&lt;</b></a></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f435b9d26d1f4f62de59b3704700672e\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Texas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>德州仪器(Texas Instruments)将给科技股带来压力，早盘下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acafdc0c4a9bd231979337ca168df53\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199303246","content_text":"(July 22) US stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims.\n\nInitial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time (well above the prior week's 368k and expectations of a 350k print).\nFFIE soared over 15% in morning trading. Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell at Nasdaq. LIVE<<\nTexas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180954546,"gmtCreate":1623172039685,"gmtModify":1631888693511,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yep","listText":"Yep","text":"Yep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180954546","repostId":"1136550999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114918896,"gmtCreate":1623041739215,"gmtModify":1631888693529,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LnS","listText":"LnS","text":"LnS","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114918896","repostId":"1167316963","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167316963","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623037414,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167316963?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood Loads Up $7.65M In Tesla, Also Adds Google, Trims Netflix<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)在特斯拉斥资765万美元，还增加了谷歌，削减了Netflix</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167316963","media":"benzinga","summary":"Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Friday snapped up 12,763 shares, estimated to be worth ","content":"<p><div> Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Friday snapped up 12,763 shares, estimated to be worth about $7.65 million, in Tesla Inc after over a two-week pause, during which time, shares of the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)领导的方舟投资管理公司(Ark Investment Management)周五在暂停两周多后抢购了12,763股特斯拉公司股票，估计价值约765万美元。</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood Loads Up $7.65M In Tesla, Also Adds Google, Trims Netflix<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)在特斯拉斥资765万美元，还增加了谷歌，削减了Netflix</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood Loads Up $7.65M In Tesla, Also Adds Google, Trims Netflix<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)在特斯拉斥资765万美元，还增加了谷歌，削减了Netflix</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Friday snapped up 12,763 shares, estimated to be worth about $7.65 million, in Tesla Inc after over a two-week pause, during which time, shares of the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)领导的方舟投资管理公司(Ark Investment Management)周五在暂停两周多后抢购了12,763股特斯拉公司股票，估计价值约765万美元。</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","GOOG":"谷歌","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167316963","content_text":"Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Friday snapped up 12,763 shares, estimated to be worth about $7.65 million, in Tesla Inc after over a two-week pause, during which time, shares of the electric vehicle company have advanced about 6.3%.Tesla shares closed 4.58% higher at $599.05 on Friday. Ark last bought Tesla shares on May 20.The New York-based investment deployed three of its traded funds to buy Tesla shares, namely: the Ark Innovation ETF ,Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF(BATS:ARKQ) and the Ark Next Generation Internet ETF .All three ETFs - ARKK, ARKQ and ARKW- count Tesla as its largest holdings and together hold about 4.83 million shares, worth about $2.77 billion of the electric vehicle company. ARKK holds most of the shares, worth about $1.97 billion.Ark Funds in Marchupdatedits price target on Tesla shares to $3,000 per share, to be reached by 2025.Ark Invest on Friday also bought 2,895 shares, estimated to be worth about $6.93 million, in Google parent Alphabet Inc via itsArk Fintech Innovation ETF .Alphabet Class A shares closed 1.96% higher at $2,393.57 and Class C shares closed 1.96% higher at $2,451.7 on Friday.  ARKFmade a debut inAlphabet last week as it added the shares of the company to a portfolio of 43 other stocks.Ark Invest also holds Alphabet via the Ark Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKX) and ARKQ.The investment firm also sold 11,102 shares, worth about $12.4 million, in video streaming company Netflix Inc via ARKW on Friday.ARKW holds a total of 123,160 shares, worth about $60.28 million, in Netflix. Ark Invest also holds Netflix shares via theArk Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKX).Netflix shares closed 1.08% higher at $494.74 on Friday.Some of the other key Ark Invest sells on Friday included Pluristem Therapeutics Inc and buys includedTeradyne Inc .","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":699982955,"gmtCreate":1639735749487,"gmtModify":1639735749628,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yep","listText":"Yep","text":"Yep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699982955","repostId":"1100764747","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862125049,"gmtCreate":1632845694662,"gmtModify":1632845694662,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fifa","listText":"Fifa","text":"Fifa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862125049","repostId":"1112583450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112583450","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632842868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112583450?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity<blockquote>艺电：基本面持续强劲，逢低买入机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112583450","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nElectronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.\nEA recently ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Electronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.</li>  <li>EA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.</li>  <li>EA has strengthened its mobile gaming talent over the past year and has a stronger pipeline for mobile revenue than ever.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8344f36d2d49a7e957c065340be2cb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与强劲的2020年相比，艺电第一季度财报业绩稳健。</li><li>艺电最近推迟了秋季发布的《战地2042》，但此举提供了一个强有力的买入机会。</li><li>EA在过去一年中增强了其移动游戏人才，并拥有比以往任何时候都更强大的移动收入渠道。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Electronic Arts (EA) is a household name with great fundamentals. 70%+ long-term margins and stable revenue streams have led to strong shareholder returns over time. The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the&nbsp;delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>电子艺界（EA）是一个家喻户晓的名字，有着良好的基本面。随着时间的推移，70%以上的长期利润率和稳定的收入流为股东带来了强劲的回报。该股自2018年中期以来表现不佳，但现在游戏公司的定价接近价值股水平。由于今年的大型电影《战地2042》推迟到11月19日，他们的股价最近大幅下跌。这为EA股票提供了一个很好的切入点，其中大部分销售仍然能够在稍后的发布日期捕获。EA拥有出色的技术设置，自2018年中期首次达到该水平以来，该股在2021年多次接近148.97美元的历史高点。如下所示，过去一年收入大幅增长至5.7 B，2022年GAAP收入指引为68亿美元，但该股自2018年中期以来仍在盘整。当这些高点被突破时，这就有可能大幅上涨。更高的低点令人鼓舞，这可能是突破历史高点之前最后一次大幅下跌15%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7506972cadc0be0701c77d20ad10d4ff\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Fiscal Q1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>伟大的财政第一季度</b></blockquote></p><p> Electronic Arts had a strong&nbsp;Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.</p><p><blockquote>即使与非常强劲的2020年相比，艺电第一季度的财报也很强劲。净预订量是衡量业务业绩的最准确指标，比上一年增长了3%，达到61.36亿美元。2022年的营业额指导为74亿美元，即增长20.6%。收入跟随账单，因此我们将从最近的强劲业绩中看到明年的收入和盈利流动。Madden、NHL，尤其是FIFA的体育特许经营权继续以稳定的表现引领EA。在过去的一年里，体育特许经营共有1.4亿玩家，其中超过3100万人玩了最新的FIFA 2021版本。体育是可预测且受欢迎的游戏，随着时间的推移，这会增加收入和收益的稳定性。FUT比赛仍在强劲增长，Q1比去年增长了48%。《战地》的延迟可能会损害账单数量，因为部分销售额将流失到动视暴雪(ATVI)的《看涨期权使命先锋》等竞争对手手中。然而，近年来的游戏延迟并没有对这些游戏的销售产生太大负面影响。这些由于严格的截止日期而导致的延迟在业内非常常见，我认为EA股票对一个月延迟的负面反应有些过头了。与此同时，Apex Legends已经看到了复苏，许多玩家回到了游戏中，它被证明是一个比许多人预期的更持久的标题。这款游戏实际上是最近一个赛季拥有最多玩家的游戏，对于一款已经推出几年的游戏来说，这令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63da6c1ee87d6951184b6ba11ea0ab01\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，本财年的账单增长一直不稳定，但总体而言，我预计随着时间的推移，增长将达到高个位数到低两位数。2021财年的增长至少部分是由于冠状病毒，尽管那里的环境仍然非常有利。全球范围内对旅行和其他娱乐的限制仍然是游戏时间的重要推动力。包括微交易和游戏通行证在内的直播服务继续成为EA业务的重要组成部分。国际足联的成功是其中很大一部分，EA宣布战地2042每年有4个赛季可以购买通行证。这应该会在游戏发布后的几年里提供稳定的收入来源。宣布的战场门户允许人们使用旧版本创建新地图，这似乎很好地促进了付费季票的参与。新的危险区模式增加了额外的内容，以及逃离塔尔科夫式的小队生存场景。有一点是清楚的——EA在《战地2042》上投入了更多的努力，并在2年多的时间里保持了它的趣味性，而不是过去的几个系列。艺电证实这将是每隔一年发布一次，像战地门户这样的东西可能会与多个版本一起工作。这些，加上即将推出的新手机战场游戏，让我更加看好未来从《使命看涨期权》中分一杯羹。一些投资者可能会担心游戏延迟后2022财年74亿美元的账单数字，但符合这一标准应该会在未来12个月内给该股带来非常显着的提振。</blockquote></p><p> The company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还有一项重要的股票回购计划，有助于在股价下跌期间支撑股价。EA去年回购了9.76亿股股票，略低于360亿美元总市值的3%。由于《战地2042》的延迟，该股再次下跌，预计未来几周将出现更大规模的回购活动。EA还支付每季度17美分的小额股息。虽然这是0.5%左右的收益率，但随着时间的推移，它可以显着增长，并显示了管理团队对股东的持续承诺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Continued Growth in Mobile</b></p><p><blockquote><b>移动业务持续增长</b></blockquote></p><p> EA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the&nbsp;purchase of Playdemic&nbsp;for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>艺电一直试图在移动领域赶上动视暴雪等竞争对手。艺电已经在今年早些时候收购了Glu Mobile，以扩大他们不断增长的休闲手机游戏。现在，EA最近以14亿美元完成了对《高尔夫冲突》制作方Playdemic的收购。根据Sensor Tower的数据，在强劲的疫情时期，Golf Clash的收入高达1.328亿美元。对于一款拥有非常强大且不断增长的用户群以及背后有一支才华横溢的团队的游戏来说，10倍的销售额是一个合理的价格。艺电正在考虑长远，Playdemic可能会在未来几年开发艺电稳定的其他IP。他们在电话会议上暗示，他们已经获得了全球Madden或FIFA手机游戏的许可——这对投资者来说是一个诱人的想法。EA的移动业务正在增长，2021年将比2019年的水平增长16%，但他们继续在这一领域大力投资。休闲游戏有很长的尾巴，由于与游戏创作相关的运营费用较低，因此是最赚钱的游戏之一。艺电还宣布，他们正在为流行的Apex传奇皇家战役游戏制作一款手机游戏，以及前面提到的战地游戏。这很可能是在看到动视暴雪凭借其移动版《使命看涨期权》游戏取得成功之后，而且事实上他们还没有将许多移动版特许经营权货币化。对于EA来说，这是一个真正将移动业务作为业务一部分发展的机会，去年移动业务仅占预订量的13.5%。然而，移动业务的增长率将在第一财季加速至20%，并可能在未来几年带来巨大推动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不持有任何EA股票的人来说，最近的下跌是一个绝佳的买入机会。该股一直在突破150点附近的历史高位，当突破上行时，应该会出现大幅上涨。它的交易价格为非常便宜的16倍远期市盈率，使其在当前市场上接近价值股票的地位。任何额外的封锁或限制也将利好EA，因为许多年轻人继续在游戏上投入巨资。通过收购和使用现有知识产权，EA专注于他们在移动领域的弱点，为自己的长期发展做好了准备。移动是EA明显落后于主要竞争对手的领域，但2021年采取的举措将在未来几年带来巨大红利——股东可能会受益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Electronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity<blockquote>艺电：基本面持续强劲，逢低买入机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity<blockquote>艺电：基本面持续强劲，逢低买入机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Electronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.</li>  <li>EA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.</li>  <li>EA has strengthened its mobile gaming talent over the past year and has a stronger pipeline for mobile revenue than ever.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8344f36d2d49a7e957c065340be2cb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与强劲的2020年相比，艺电第一季度财报业绩稳健。</li><li>艺电最近推迟了秋季发布的《战地2042》，但此举提供了一个强有力的买入机会。</li><li>EA在过去一年中增强了其移动游戏人才，并拥有比以往任何时候都更强大的移动收入渠道。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Electronic Arts (EA) is a household name with great fundamentals. 70%+ long-term margins and stable revenue streams have led to strong shareholder returns over time. The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the&nbsp;delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>电子艺界（EA）是一个家喻户晓的名字，有着良好的基本面。随着时间的推移，70%以上的长期利润率和稳定的收入流为股东带来了强劲的回报。该股自2018年中期以来表现不佳，但现在游戏公司的定价接近价值股水平。由于今年的大型电影《战地2042》推迟到11月19日，他们的股价最近大幅下跌。这为EA股票提供了一个很好的切入点，其中大部分销售仍然能够在稍后的发布日期捕获。EA拥有出色的技术设置，自2018年中期首次达到该水平以来，该股在2021年多次接近148.97美元的历史高点。如下所示，过去一年收入大幅增长至5.7 B，2022年GAAP收入指引为68亿美元，但该股自2018年中期以来仍在盘整。当这些高点被突破时，这就有可能大幅上涨。更高的低点令人鼓舞，这可能是突破历史高点之前最后一次大幅下跌15%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7506972cadc0be0701c77d20ad10d4ff\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Fiscal Q1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>伟大的财政第一季度</b></blockquote></p><p> Electronic Arts had a strong&nbsp;Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.</p><p><blockquote>即使与非常强劲的2020年相比，艺电第一季度的财报也很强劲。净预订量是衡量业务业绩的最准确指标，比上一年增长了3%，达到61.36亿美元。2022年的营业额指导为74亿美元，即增长20.6%。收入跟随账单，因此我们将从最近的强劲业绩中看到明年的收入和盈利流动。Madden、NHL，尤其是FIFA的体育特许经营权继续以稳定的表现引领EA。在过去的一年里，体育特许经营共有1.4亿玩家，其中超过3100万人玩了最新的FIFA 2021版本。体育是可预测且受欢迎的游戏，随着时间的推移，这会增加收入和收益的稳定性。FUT比赛仍在强劲增长，Q1比去年增长了48%。《战地》的延迟可能会损害账单数量，因为部分销售额将流失到动视暴雪(ATVI)的《看涨期权使命先锋》等竞争对手手中。然而，近年来的游戏延迟并没有对这些游戏的销售产生太大负面影响。这些由于严格的截止日期而导致的延迟在业内非常常见，我认为EA股票对一个月延迟的负面反应有些过头了。与此同时，Apex Legends已经看到了复苏，许多玩家回到了游戏中，它被证明是一个比许多人预期的更持久的标题。这款游戏实际上是最近一个赛季拥有最多玩家的游戏，对于一款已经推出几年的游戏来说，这令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63da6c1ee87d6951184b6ba11ea0ab01\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，本财年的账单增长一直不稳定，但总体而言，我预计随着时间的推移，增长将达到高个位数到低两位数。2021财年的增长至少部分是由于冠状病毒，尽管那里的环境仍然非常有利。全球范围内对旅行和其他娱乐的限制仍然是游戏时间的重要推动力。包括微交易和游戏通行证在内的直播服务继续成为EA业务的重要组成部分。国际足联的成功是其中很大一部分，EA宣布战地2042每年有4个赛季可以购买通行证。这应该会在游戏发布后的几年里提供稳定的收入来源。宣布的战场门户允许人们使用旧版本创建新地图，这似乎很好地促进了付费季票的参与。新的危险区模式增加了额外的内容，以及逃离塔尔科夫式的小队生存场景。有一点是清楚的——EA在《战地2042》上投入了更多的努力，并在2年多的时间里保持了它的趣味性，而不是过去的几个系列。艺电证实这将是每隔一年发布一次，像战地门户这样的东西可能会与多个版本一起工作。这些，加上即将推出的新手机战场游戏，让我更加看好未来从《使命看涨期权》中分一杯羹。一些投资者可能会担心游戏延迟后2022财年74亿美元的账单数字，但符合这一标准应该会在未来12个月内给该股带来非常显着的提振。</blockquote></p><p> The company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还有一项重要的股票回购计划，有助于在股价下跌期间支撑股价。EA去年回购了9.76亿股股票，略低于360亿美元总市值的3%。由于《战地2042》的延迟，该股再次下跌，预计未来几周将出现更大规模的回购活动。EA还支付每季度17美分的小额股息。虽然这是0.5%左右的收益率，但随着时间的推移，它可以显着增长，并显示了管理团队对股东的持续承诺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Continued Growth in Mobile</b></p><p><blockquote><b>移动业务持续增长</b></blockquote></p><p> EA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the&nbsp;purchase of Playdemic&nbsp;for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>艺电一直试图在移动领域赶上动视暴雪等竞争对手。艺电已经在今年早些时候收购了Glu Mobile，以扩大他们不断增长的休闲手机游戏。现在，EA最近以14亿美元完成了对《高尔夫冲突》制作方Playdemic的收购。根据Sensor Tower的数据，在强劲的疫情时期，Golf Clash的收入高达1.328亿美元。对于一款拥有非常强大且不断增长的用户群以及背后有一支才华横溢的团队的游戏来说，10倍的销售额是一个合理的价格。艺电正在考虑长远，Playdemic可能会在未来几年开发艺电稳定的其他IP。他们在电话会议上暗示，他们已经获得了全球Madden或FIFA手机游戏的许可——这对投资者来说是一个诱人的想法。EA的移动业务正在增长，2021年将比2019年的水平增长16%，但他们继续在这一领域大力投资。休闲游戏有很长的尾巴，由于与游戏创作相关的运营费用较低，因此是最赚钱的游戏之一。艺电还宣布，他们正在为流行的Apex传奇皇家战役游戏制作一款手机游戏，以及前面提到的战地游戏。这很可能是在看到动视暴雪凭借其移动版《使命看涨期权》游戏取得成功之后，而且事实上他们还没有将许多移动版特许经营权货币化。对于EA来说，这是一个真正将移动业务作为业务一部分发展的机会，去年移动业务仅占预订量的13.5%。然而，移动业务的增长率将在第一财季加速至20%，并可能在未来几年带来巨大推动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不持有任何EA股票的人来说，最近的下跌是一个绝佳的买入机会。该股一直在突破150点附近的历史高位，当突破上行时，应该会出现大幅上涨。它的交易价格为非常便宜的16倍远期市盈率，使其在当前市场上接近价值股票的地位。任何额外的封锁或限制也将利好EA，因为许多年轻人继续在游戏上投入巨资。通过收购和使用现有知识产权，EA专注于他们在移动领域的弱点，为自己的长期发展做好了准备。移动是EA明显落后于主要竞争对手的领域，但2021年采取的举措将在未来几年带来巨大红利——股东可能会受益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457473-electronic-arts-strong-fundamentals-continue-amid-dip-buying-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EA":"艺电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457473-electronic-arts-strong-fundamentals-continue-amid-dip-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112583450","content_text":"Summary\n\nElectronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.\nEA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.\nEA has strengthened its mobile gaming talent over the past year and has a stronger pipeline for mobile revenue than ever.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nElectronic Arts (EA) is a household name with great fundamentals. 70%+ long-term margins and stable revenue streams have led to strong shareholder returns over time. The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.\nData by YCharts\nGreat Fiscal Q1\nElectronic Arts had a strong Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.\n\nAs you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.\nThe company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.\nContinued Growth in Mobile\nEA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the purchase of Playdemic for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.\nConclusion\nThe recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":816551099,"gmtCreate":1630508751411,"gmtModify":1631888693461,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meme ftw","listText":"Meme ftw","text":"Meme ftw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816551099","repostId":"2164281847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118554943,"gmtCreate":1622741135782,"gmtModify":1631891247263,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dipping","listText":"Dipping","text":"Dipping","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118554943","repostId":"2140422463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172213906,"gmtCreate":1626962093005,"gmtModify":1631888693488,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172213906","repostId":"1175825882","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172219545,"gmtCreate":1626962079287,"gmtModify":1631888693501,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172219545","repostId":"1199303246","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199303246","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626960676,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199303246?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数上升后，美国股市周四开盘涨跌不一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199303246","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time .FFIE soared over 15% in morning trading. Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell at Nasdaq. LIVE<<. Texas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.","content":"<p>(July 22)&nbsp;US stocks&nbsp;open mixed on Thursday,&nbsp;after rise in jobless claims.</p><p><blockquote>（7月22日）美国股市周四开盘涨跌不一，初请失业金人数上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0d932e254fb8e9566e8d4e3df9c245\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time (well above the prior week's 368k and expectations of a 350k print).</p><p><blockquote>上周首次申请失业救济人数大幅上升，有41.9万美国人首次申请失业救济（远高于前一周的36.8万人和35万人的预期）。</blockquote></p><p> FFIE soared over 15% in morning trading.&nbsp;Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell&nbsp;at&nbsp;Nasdaq.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266938664455%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>LIVE&lt;&lt;</b></a></p><p><blockquote>FFIE早盘飙升逾15%。法拉第未来将在纳斯达克敲响开盘钟声。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266938664455%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>活的&lt;&lt;</b></a></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f435b9d26d1f4f62de59b3704700672e\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Texas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>德州仪器(Texas Instruments)将给科技股带来压力，早盘下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acafdc0c4a9bd231979337ca168df53\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数上升后，美国股市周四开盘涨跌不一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-22 21:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 22)&nbsp;US stocks&nbsp;open mixed on Thursday,&nbsp;after rise in jobless claims.</p><p><blockquote>（7月22日）美国股市周四开盘涨跌不一，初请失业金人数上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0d932e254fb8e9566e8d4e3df9c245\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time (well above the prior week's 368k and expectations of a 350k print).</p><p><blockquote>上周首次申请失业救济人数大幅上升，有41.9万美国人首次申请失业救济（远高于前一周的36.8万人和35万人的预期）。</blockquote></p><p> FFIE soared over 15% in morning trading.&nbsp;Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell&nbsp;at&nbsp;Nasdaq.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266938664455%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>LIVE&lt;&lt;</b></a></p><p><blockquote>FFIE早盘飙升逾15%。法拉第未来将在纳斯达克敲响开盘钟声。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266938664455%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>活的&lt;&lt;</b></a></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f435b9d26d1f4f62de59b3704700672e\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Texas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>德州仪器(Texas Instruments)将给科技股带来压力，早盘下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acafdc0c4a9bd231979337ca168df53\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199303246","content_text":"(July 22) US stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims.\n\nInitial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time (well above the prior week's 368k and expectations of a 350k print).\nFFIE soared over 15% in morning trading. Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell at Nasdaq. LIVE<<\nTexas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114918896,"gmtCreate":1623041739215,"gmtModify":1631888693529,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LnS","listText":"LnS","text":"LnS","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114918896","repostId":"1167316963","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167316963","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623037414,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167316963?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood Loads Up $7.65M In Tesla, Also Adds Google, Trims Netflix<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)在特斯拉斥资765万美元，还增加了谷歌，削减了Netflix</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167316963","media":"benzinga","summary":"Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Friday snapped up 12,763 shares, estimated to be worth ","content":"<p><div> Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Friday snapped up 12,763 shares, estimated to be worth about $7.65 million, in Tesla Inc after over a two-week pause, during which time, shares of the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)领导的方舟投资管理公司(Ark Investment Management)周五在暂停两周多后抢购了12,763股特斯拉公司股票，估计价值约765万美元。</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood Loads Up $7.65M In Tesla, Also Adds Google, Trims Netflix<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)在特斯拉斥资765万美元，还增加了谷歌，削减了Netflix</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood Loads Up $7.65M In Tesla, Also Adds Google, Trims Netflix<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)在特斯拉斥资765万美元，还增加了谷歌，削减了Netflix</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Friday snapped up 12,763 shares, estimated to be worth about $7.65 million, in Tesla Inc after over a two-week pause, during which time, shares of the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)领导的方舟投资管理公司(Ark Investment Management)周五在暂停两周多后抢购了12,763股特斯拉公司股票，估计价值约765万美元。</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","GOOG":"谷歌","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21444283/cathie-wood-loads-up-7-65m-in-tesla-also-adds-google-trims-netflix","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167316963","content_text":"Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Friday snapped up 12,763 shares, estimated to be worth about $7.65 million, in Tesla Inc after over a two-week pause, during which time, shares of the electric vehicle company have advanced about 6.3%.Tesla shares closed 4.58% higher at $599.05 on Friday. Ark last bought Tesla shares on May 20.The New York-based investment deployed three of its traded funds to buy Tesla shares, namely: the Ark Innovation ETF ,Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF(BATS:ARKQ) and the Ark Next Generation Internet ETF .All three ETFs - ARKK, ARKQ and ARKW- count Tesla as its largest holdings and together hold about 4.83 million shares, worth about $2.77 billion of the electric vehicle company. ARKK holds most of the shares, worth about $1.97 billion.Ark Funds in Marchupdatedits price target on Tesla shares to $3,000 per share, to be reached by 2025.Ark Invest on Friday also bought 2,895 shares, estimated to be worth about $6.93 million, in Google parent Alphabet Inc via itsArk Fintech Innovation ETF .Alphabet Class A shares closed 1.96% higher at $2,393.57 and Class C shares closed 1.96% higher at $2,451.7 on Friday.  ARKFmade a debut inAlphabet last week as it added the shares of the company to a portfolio of 43 other stocks.Ark Invest also holds Alphabet via the Ark Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKX) and ARKQ.The investment firm also sold 11,102 shares, worth about $12.4 million, in video streaming company Netflix Inc via ARKW on Friday.ARKW holds a total of 123,160 shares, worth about $60.28 million, in Netflix. Ark Invest also holds Netflix shares via theArk Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKX).Netflix shares closed 1.08% higher at $494.74 on Friday.Some of the other key Ark Invest sells on Friday included Pluristem Therapeutics Inc and buys includedTeradyne Inc .","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114911919,"gmtCreate":1623041675131,"gmtModify":1631888693536,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LnS","listText":"LnS","text":"LnS","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114911919","repostId":"1170185754","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170185754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623037748,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170185754?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toshiba to buy back 6% of shares, pay special dividend<blockquote>东芝将回购6%股份并支付特别股息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170185754","media":"Reuters","summary":"TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp said on Monday it will buy back up to 6% of its outstanding shares wo","content":"<p>TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp said on Monday it will buy back up to 6% of its outstanding shares worth around 100 billion yen ($913 million), in line with its plans to boost shareholder returns.</p><p><blockquote>东京（路透社）-东芝公司周一表示，将回购最多6%的流通股，价值约1000亿日元（9.13亿美元），以符合其提高股东回报的计划。</blockquote></p><p>The Japanese industrial conglomerate will also allocate about 50 billion yen to pay a special dividend as \"some shareholders, mainly retail shareholders, prefer dividends\", it said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>这家日本工业集团在一份声明中表示，由于“一些股东，主要是散户股东，更喜欢股息”，还将拨款约500亿日元支付特别股息。</blockquote></p><p>Toshiba, which has been under pressure from activist shareholders, last month promised to return to shareholders a surplus of 150 billion yen against the appropriate shareholder equity level.</p><p><blockquote>一直受到激进股东压力的东芝上个月承诺，将向股东返还相对于适当股东权益水平的1500亿日元盈余。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toshiba to buy back 6% of shares, pay special dividend<blockquote>东芝将回购6%股份并支付特别股息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToshiba to buy back 6% of shares, pay special dividend<blockquote>东芝将回购6%股份并支付特别股息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 11:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp said on Monday it will buy back up to 6% of its outstanding shares worth around 100 billion yen ($913 million), in line with its plans to boost shareholder returns.</p><p><blockquote>东京（路透社）-东芝公司周一表示，将回购最多6%的流通股，价值约1000亿日元（9.13亿美元），以符合其提高股东回报的计划。</blockquote></p><p>The Japanese industrial conglomerate will also allocate about 50 billion yen to pay a special dividend as \"some shareholders, mainly retail shareholders, prefer dividends\", it said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>这家日本工业集团在一份声明中表示，由于“一些股东，主要是散户股东，更喜欢股息”，还将拨款约500亿日元支付特别股息。</blockquote></p><p>Toshiba, which has been under pressure from activist shareholders, last month promised to return to shareholders a surplus of 150 billion yen against the appropriate shareholder equity level.</p><p><blockquote>一直受到激进股东压力的东芝上个月承诺，将向股东返还相对于适当股东权益水平的1500亿日元盈余。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toshiba-buy-back-6-shares-033708746.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TOSYY":"东芝"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toshiba-buy-back-6-shares-033708746.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170185754","content_text":"TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp said on Monday it will buy back up to 6% of its outstanding shares worth around 100 billion yen ($913 million), in line with its plans to boost shareholder returns.The Japanese industrial conglomerate will also allocate about 50 billion yen to pay a special dividend as \"some shareholders, mainly retail shareholders, prefer dividends\", it said in a statement.Toshiba, which has been under pressure from activist shareholders, last month promised to return to shareholders a surplus of 150 billion yen against the appropriate shareholder equity level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TOSYY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110235770,"gmtCreate":1622457961690,"gmtModify":1631891247292,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True that&nbsp;","listText":"True that&nbsp;","text":"True that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110235770","repostId":"2139480149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":699984645,"gmtCreate":1639735941496,"gmtModify":1639735941587,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Exactly","listText":"Exactly","text":"Exactly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699984645","repostId":"1154435289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154435289","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1639733312,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154435289?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 17:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For December 17, 2021<blockquote>2021年12月17日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154435289","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects Darden Restaurants, ","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects&nbsp;<b>Darden Restaurants, Inc.</b>&nbsp;to report quarterly earnings at $1.44 per share on revenue of $2.23 billion before the opening bell. Darden Restaurants shares slipped 0.8% to $145.99 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>FedEx Corporation</b>&nbsp;reported better-than-expected results for its second quarter and boosted its FY22 earnings guidance. The company also reported a $5 billion buyback, including $1.5 billion accelerated buyback program. FedEx shares climbed 4.9% to $250.30 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting&nbsp;<b>Winnebago Industries, Inc.</b>&nbsp;to have earned $2.25 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the market open. On Thursday, Winnebago’s board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share. Winnebago shares gained 4.6% to $71.00 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Steelcase Inc.</b>&nbsp;reported downbeat results for its third quarter and issued weak sales forecast for the current quarter. Steelcase shares dropped 3.7% to $11.09 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li><b>United States Steel Corporation</b>&nbsp;said it projects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of around $1.65 billion for the fourth quarter, versus analysts’ estimates of $2.13 billion amid a slowdown in orders. United States Steel shares dropped 5.1% to $22.26 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>达顿餐饮公司。</b>开盘前公布季度收益为每股1.44美元，营收为22.3亿美元。达顿餐厅股价在盘后交易中下跌0.8%，至145.99美元。</li><li><b>联邦快递公司</b>公布的第二季度业绩好于预期，并上调了2022财年盈利指引。该公司还报告了50亿美元的回购，其中包括15亿美元的加速回购计划。联邦快递股价在盘后交易时段上涨4.9%至250.30美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>温尼贝戈工业公司。</b>最近一个季度的营收为10.1亿美元，每股收益为2.25美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。周四，温尼贝戈董事会批准了每股0.18美元的季度现金股息。温尼贝戈股价在盘后交易中上涨4.6%，至71.00美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b>斯蒂尔凯斯公司。</b>报告了悲观的第三季度业绩，并发布了疲软的本季度销售预测。Steelcase股价在盘后交易时段下跌3.7%，至11.09美元。</li><li><b>美国钢铁公司</b>该公司表示，由于订单放缓，预计第四季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润约为16.5亿美元，而分析师预期为21.3亿美元。美国钢铁公司股价在盘后交易中下跌5.1%，至22.26美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For December 17, 2021<blockquote>2021年12月17日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For December 17, 2021<blockquote>2021年12月17日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-17 17:28</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects&nbsp;<b>Darden Restaurants, Inc.</b>&nbsp;to report quarterly earnings at $1.44 per share on revenue of $2.23 billion before the opening bell. Darden Restaurants shares slipped 0.8% to $145.99 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>FedEx Corporation</b>&nbsp;reported better-than-expected results for its second quarter and boosted its FY22 earnings guidance. The company also reported a $5 billion buyback, including $1.5 billion accelerated buyback program. FedEx shares climbed 4.9% to $250.30 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting&nbsp;<b>Winnebago Industries, Inc.</b>&nbsp;to have earned $2.25 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the market open. On Thursday, Winnebago’s board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share. Winnebago shares gained 4.6% to $71.00 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Steelcase Inc.</b>&nbsp;reported downbeat results for its third quarter and issued weak sales forecast for the current quarter. Steelcase shares dropped 3.7% to $11.09 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li><b>United States Steel Corporation</b>&nbsp;said it projects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of around $1.65 billion for the fourth quarter, versus analysts’ estimates of $2.13 billion amid a slowdown in orders. United States Steel shares dropped 5.1% to $22.26 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>达顿餐饮公司。</b>开盘前公布季度收益为每股1.44美元，营收为22.3亿美元。达顿餐厅股价在盘后交易中下跌0.8%，至145.99美元。</li><li><b>联邦快递公司</b>公布的第二季度业绩好于预期，并上调了2022财年盈利指引。该公司还报告了50亿美元的回购，其中包括15亿美元的加速回购计划。联邦快递股价在盘后交易时段上涨4.9%至250.30美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>温尼贝戈工业公司。</b>最近一个季度的营收为10.1亿美元，每股收益为2.25美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。周四，温尼贝戈董事会批准了每股0.18美元的季度现金股息。温尼贝戈股价在盘后交易中上涨4.6%，至71.00美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b>斯蒂尔凯斯公司。</b>报告了悲观的第三季度业绩，并发布了疲软的本季度销售预测。Steelcase股价在盘后交易时段下跌3.7%，至11.09美元。</li><li><b>美国钢铁公司</b>该公司表示，由于订单放缓，预计第四季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润约为16.5亿美元，而分析师预期为21.3亿美元。美国钢铁公司股价在盘后交易中下跌5.1%，至22.26美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DRI":"达登饭店","WGO":"温尼巴格实业","SCS":"Steelcase Inc.","FDX":"联邦快递","X":"美国钢铁"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154435289","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects Darden Restaurants, Inc. to report quarterly earnings at $1.44 per share on revenue of $2.23 billion before the opening bell. Darden Restaurants shares slipped 0.8% to $145.99 in after-hours trading.\nFedEx Corporation reported better-than-expected results for its second quarter and boosted its FY22 earnings guidance. The company also reported a $5 billion buyback, including $1.5 billion accelerated buyback program. FedEx shares climbed 4.9% to $250.30 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting Winnebago Industries, Inc. to have earned $2.25 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the market open. On Thursday, Winnebago’s board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share. Winnebago shares gained 4.6% to $71.00 in after-hours trading.\n\n\nSteelcase Inc. reported downbeat results for its third quarter and issued weak sales forecast for the current quarter. Steelcase shares dropped 3.7% to $11.09 in the after-hours trading session.\nUnited States Steel Corporation said it projects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of around $1.65 billion for the fourth quarter, versus analysts’ estimates of $2.13 billion amid a slowdown in orders. United States Steel shares dropped 5.1% to $22.26 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"X":0.9,"WGO":0.9,"SCS":0.9,"FDX":0.9,"DRI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603198026,"gmtCreate":1638371435847,"gmtModify":1638371436650,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Booming","listText":"Booming","text":"Booming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603198026","repostId":"2188563155","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859193653,"gmtCreate":1634662817384,"gmtModify":1634695410230,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Might tank likely","listText":"Might tank likely","text":"Might tank likely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859193653","repostId":"1159487757","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880861716,"gmtCreate":1631033046235,"gmtModify":1631888693450,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wait and see","listText":"Wait and see","text":"Wait and see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880861716","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118555377,"gmtCreate":1622741053999,"gmtModify":1631891247283,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to know","listText":"Good to know","text":"Good to know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118555377","repostId":"1143150601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":602018596,"gmtCreate":1638939040856,"gmtModify":1638939041050,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a> Should have informed shareholders the adhoc offerings in advance on AGM","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a> Should have informed shareholders the adhoc offerings in advance on AGM","text":"$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$ Should have informed shareholders the adhoc offerings in advance on AGM","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602018596","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823216486,"gmtCreate":1633627256484,"gmtModify":1633627256599,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Commodities inflation","listText":"Commodities inflation","text":"Commodities inflation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823216486","repostId":"1145884564","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145884564","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633616637,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145884564?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-07 22:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A global energy crisis is coming. There's no quick fix<blockquote>全球能源危机即将来临。没有快速解决办法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145884564","media":"cnn","summary":"London (CNN Business)Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predicti","content":"<p>London (CNN Business)Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predictions of $100 oil.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（CNN商业）天然气价格的天文数字上涨。煤炭成本飙升。100美元石油的预测。</blockquote></p><p> A global energy crunch caused by weather and a resurgence in demand is getting worse, stirring alarm ahead of the winter, when more energy is needed to light and heat homes. Governments around the world are trying to limit the impact on consumers, but acknowledge they may not be able to prevent bills spiking.</p><p><blockquote>由天气和需求复苏引起的全球能源紧缩正在变得越来越严重，在冬季来临之前敲响了警钟，因为冬季需要更多的能源来照明和取暖。世界各国政府都在努力限制对消费者的影响，但承认他们可能无法阻止账单飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Further complicating the picture is mounting pressure on governments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in November.</p><p><blockquote>随着世界领导人为11月的关键气候峰会做准备，各国政府面临越来越大的压力，要求他们加速向清洁能源的过渡，这让情况变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> In China, rolling blackouts for residents have already begun, while in India power stations are scrambling for coal. Consumer advocates in Europe are calling for a ban on disconnections if customers can't promptly settle what they owe.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，居民轮流停电已经开始，而在印度，发电站正在争夺煤炭。欧洲的消费者权益倡导者呼吁，如果客户不能及时偿还所欠债务，就禁止断网。</blockquote></p><p> \"This price shock is an unexpected crisis at a critical juncture,\" EU energy chief Kadri Simson said Wednesday, confirming the bloc will outline its longer-term policy response next week. \"The immediate priority should be to mitigate social impacts and protect vulnerable households.\"</p><p><blockquote>欧盟能源负责人卡德里·西姆森周三表示：“这次价格冲击是关键时刻的意外危机。”他确认欧盟将在下周概述其长期政策应对措施。“当务之急应该是减轻社会影响并保护弱势家庭。”</blockquote></p><p> In Europe, natural gas is now trading at the equivalent of $230 per barrel, in oil terms — up more than 130% since the beginning of September and more than eight times higher than the same point last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.</p><p><blockquote>根据独立商品情报服务的数据，在欧洲，天然气目前的交易价格相当于每桶230美元，自9月初以来上涨了130%以上，是去年同期的八倍多。</blockquote></p><p> In East Asia, the cost of natural gas is up 85% since the start of September, hitting roughly $204 per barrel in oil terms. Prices remain much lower in the United States, a net exporter of natural gas, but still have shot up to their highest levels in 13 years.</p><p><blockquote>在东亚，天然气成本自9月初以来上涨了85%，以石油计算达到每桶约204美元。天然气净出口国美国的价格仍然低得多，但仍飙升至13年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"A lot of it is feeding off of fear about what the winter's going to look like,\" said Nikos Tsafos, an energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He thinks that anxiety has caused the market to break away from the fundamentals of supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心的能源和地缘政治专家尼科斯·察福斯表示：“很大程度上是因为担心冬天会是什么样子。”他认为焦虑情绪导致市场脱离供需基本面。</blockquote></p><p> The frenzy to secure natural gas is also pushing up the price of coal and oil, which can be used as substitutes in some cases, but are even worse for the climate. India, which remains extremely dependent on coal, said this week that as many as 63 of its 135 coal-fired power plants have two days or less of supplies.</p><p><blockquote>获取天然气的狂热也推高了煤炭和石油的价格，在某些情况下，煤炭和石油可以用作替代品，但对气候的影响更大。仍然极度依赖煤炭的印度本周表示，其135家燃煤电厂中，多达63家的供应不足两天。</blockquote></p><p> The circumstances are causing central banks and investors to worry. Rising energy prices are contributing to inflation, which already was a major concern as the global economy tries to shake off the lingering effects of Covid-19. Dynamics over the winter could make matters worse.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况引起了央行和投资者的担忧。能源价格上涨正在加剧通货膨胀，随着全球经济试图摆脱Covid-19的挥之不去的影响，通货膨胀已经成为一个主要问题。冬季的动态可能会让事情变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No easy solution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>没有简单的解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p> The crisis is rooted in soaring demand for energy as the economic recovery from the pandemic takes hold, and a carefully calibrated system that's easily disrupted by weather events or mechanical problems.</p><p><blockquote>这场危机的根源在于，随着经济从大流行中复苏，能源需求飙升，以及精心校准的系统很容易被天气事件或机械问题破坏。</blockquote></p><p> An unusually long and cold winter earlier this year depleted stocks of natural gas in Europe. Soaring demand for energy has impeded the restocking process, which typically happens over the spring and summer.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候异常漫长而寒冷的冬季耗尽了欧洲的天然气库存。能源需求飙升阻碍了通常发生在春季和夏季的补货过程。</blockquote></p><p> China's growing appetite for liquified natural gas has meant LNG markets can't fill the gap. A decline in Russian gas exports and unusually calm winds have exacerbated the problem.</p><p><blockquote>中国对液化天然气日益增长的需求意味着液化天然气市场无法填补这一缺口。俄罗斯天然气出口的下降和异常平静的风加剧了这一问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The current surge in European energy power prices is truly unique,\" energy analysts at the Société Générale bank told clients this week. \"Never before have power prices risen so far, so fast. And we are only a few days into autumn — temperatures are still mild.\"</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行能源分析师本周对客户表示：“目前欧洲能源电价的飙升确实是独一无二的。”“电价从未上涨过如此之远、如此之快。而且我们才入秋几天——气温仍然温和。”</blockquote></p><p> The dynamics are reverberating globally. In the United States, natural gas prices have risen 47% since the beginning of August. The scramble for coal is also triggering a spike in the price many European companies have to pay for carbon credits so they can burn fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态正在全球范围内引起反响。在美国，天然气价格自8月初以来上涨了47%。对煤炭的争夺也引发了许多欧洲公司为燃烧化石燃料而必须支付的碳信用额价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the energy crunch is supporting oil prices, which hit seven-year highs in the United States this week. Bank of America recently predicted that a cold winter could push the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, past $100 per barrel. Prices haven't been that high since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>此外，能源紧缩正在支撑油价，本周美国油价触及七年高点。美国银行最近预测，寒冷的冬季可能会推动全球基准布伦特原油价格突破每桶100美元。自2014年以来，价格就没有那么高了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bcd17c239a923accbcb947fe0ffa5b5\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Jim Burkhard, who leads IHS Markit's research on crude oil, energy and mobility, said there's \"no immediate relief in sight.\"</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit原油、能源和流动性研究负责人吉姆·伯克哈德(Jim Burkhard)表示，“目前还看不到立即缓解的迹象”。</blockquote></p><p> \"There's no Saudi Arabia for gas,\" he said, referring to a single supplier that can quickly ramp up natural gas production. \"This looks like it's going to endure for the winter in the Northern Hemisphere.\"</p><p><blockquote>“没有沙特阿拉伯的天然气供应，”他说，指的是可以快速提高天然气产量的单一供应商。“这种情况看起来会持续到北半球的冬天。”</blockquote></p><p> Russia could theoretically step up. Société Générale noted that faster approval by German authorities of the politically-sensitive Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would carry gas directly from Russia to Europe, would ease significant stress.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，俄罗斯可以挺身而出。法国兴业银行指出，德国当局更快批准政治敏感的北溪2号管道，该管道将直接从俄国向欧洲输送天然气，将缓解重大压力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Russia could increase its output, saying that state-owned gas giant Gazprom has never \"refused to increase supplies to its consumers if they submit appropriate bids.\"</p><p><blockquote>周三，俄罗斯总统普京暗示俄罗斯可以增加产量，称国有天然气巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司从未“拒绝增加对其消费者的供应，如果他们提交适当的投标。”</blockquote></p><p> But Neil Chapman, senior vice president at ExxonMobil (XOM), emphasized the short-term constraints at an industry conference this week.</p><p><blockquote>但埃克森美孚（XOM）高级副总裁尼尔·查普曼（Neil Chapman）在本周的行业会议上强调了短期限制。</blockquote></p><p> \"Of course there's great concern,\" Chapman said at the virtual Energy Intelligence Forum. \"In our industry, because it's capital intensive, you can't just turn on the supply.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当然，人们非常担心，”查普曼在虚拟能源情报论坛上表示。“在我们这个行业，因为它是资本密集型的，你不能只是打开供应。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crisis with a cost</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有成本的危机</b></blockquote></p><p> The best case scenario, according to Burkhard, is that a winter with average temperatures allows pressure to lift in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Burkhard表示，最好的情况是，平均气温的冬季会让2022年第二季度的压力有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p> But severe weather in the coming months would create huge strain — particularly in countries that rely heavily on natural gas for energy production, like Italy and the United Kingdom. Britain is in a particularly tough spot because it lacks storage capacity, and is dealing with the fallout from a broken power line with France.</p><p><blockquote>但未来几个月的恶劣天气将造成巨大压力——特别是在意大利和英国等严重依赖天然气生产能源的国家。英国的处境尤其艰难，因为它缺乏存储能力，并且正在应对与法国输电线断裂的影响。</blockquote></p><p> \"The UK is arguably at the highest risk of Europe's major economies of a winter supply shortfall,\" Henning Gloystein, director of the energy, climate and resource team at consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a note to clients this week. \"Should this happen, the government would likely demand factories to reduce output and gas consumption in order to ensure household supply.\"</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司欧亚集团能源、气候和资源团队总监亨宁·格洛伊斯坦(Henning Gloystein)本周在给客户的一份报告中表示：“在欧洲主要经济体中，英国冬季供应短缺的风险可以说是最高的。”“如果发生这种情况，政府可能会要求工厂减少产量和天然气消耗，以确保家庭供应。”</blockquote></p><p> The massive jump in energy costs, which shows no signs of abating, is fanning inflation fears, which already had been forcing policymakers to carefully consider their next steps.</p><p><blockquote>能源成本的大幅上涨没有减弱的迹象，正在加剧通胀担忧，这已经迫使政策制定者仔细考虑下一步措施。</blockquote></p><p> Energy prices in developed countries rose 18% in August, the fastest pace since 2008, according to data released Tuesday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. And that was before the situation deteriorated significantly in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>经济合作与发展组织周二公布的数据显示，发达国家8月份能源价格上涨18%，为2008年以来最快涨幅。那是在最近几周局势明显恶化之前。</blockquote></p><p> Higher energy bills could crimp consumer spending on clothing or activities like dining out, hurting the comeback from the pandemic. If businesses are asked to curtail activity to conserve power, that could also hurt the economy.</p><p><blockquote>更高的能源费用可能会抑制消费者在服装或外出就餐等活动上的支出，从而损害疫情的复苏。如果企业被要求减少活动以节约电力，这也可能损害经济。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are concerns that rising gas prices will put Europe's post-pandemic economic recovery at risk,\" Gloystein said.</p><p><blockquote>Gloystein表示：“人们担心天然气价格上涨将使欧洲大流行后的经济复苏面临风险。”</blockquote></p><p> There's also anxiety that price volatility could feed public skepticism about funding for the energy transition, according to Gloystein, should consumers demand more investment in oil and gas to limit future fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>Gloystein表示，人们还担心，如果消费者要求对石油和天然气进行更多投资以限制未来的波动，价格波动可能会加剧公众对能源转型资金的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> Governments that have committed to reducing emissions are preemptively trying to send a firm message: This bolsters, not undermines, the case for investing in a broader mix of energy sources.</p><p><blockquote>承诺减少排放的政府正在先发制人地试图发出一个坚定的信息：这支持而不是削弱投资更广泛的能源组合的理由。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's very clear that with energy in the long term, it is important to invest in renewables,\" European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday. \"That gives us stable prices and more independence, because 90% of the gas is imported to the European Union.\"</p><p><blockquote>欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩周三表示：“很明显，从长远来看，投资可再生能源非常重要。”“这给了我们稳定的价格和更多的独立性，因为90%的天然气是进口到欧盟的。”</blockquote></p><p> — James Frater, Laura He, Katharina Krebs and Diksha Madhok contributed reporting.</p><p><blockquote>–James Frater、Laura He、Katharina Krebs和Diksha Madhok对报道有贡献。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A global energy crisis is coming. There's no quick fix<blockquote>全球能源危机即将来临。没有快速解决办法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA global energy crisis is coming. There's no quick fix<blockquote>全球能源危机即将来临。没有快速解决办法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-07 22:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>London (CNN Business)Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predictions of $100 oil.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（CNN商业）天然气价格的天文数字上涨。煤炭成本飙升。100美元石油的预测。</blockquote></p><p> A global energy crunch caused by weather and a resurgence in demand is getting worse, stirring alarm ahead of the winter, when more energy is needed to light and heat homes. Governments around the world are trying to limit the impact on consumers, but acknowledge they may not be able to prevent bills spiking.</p><p><blockquote>由天气和需求复苏引起的全球能源紧缩正在变得越来越严重，在冬季来临之前敲响了警钟，因为冬季需要更多的能源来照明和取暖。世界各国政府都在努力限制对消费者的影响，但承认他们可能无法阻止账单飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Further complicating the picture is mounting pressure on governments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in November.</p><p><blockquote>随着世界领导人为11月的关键气候峰会做准备，各国政府面临越来越大的压力，要求他们加速向清洁能源的过渡，这让情况变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> In China, rolling blackouts for residents have already begun, while in India power stations are scrambling for coal. Consumer advocates in Europe are calling for a ban on disconnections if customers can't promptly settle what they owe.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，居民轮流停电已经开始，而在印度，发电站正在争夺煤炭。欧洲的消费者权益倡导者呼吁，如果客户不能及时偿还所欠债务，就禁止断网。</blockquote></p><p> \"This price shock is an unexpected crisis at a critical juncture,\" EU energy chief Kadri Simson said Wednesday, confirming the bloc will outline its longer-term policy response next week. \"The immediate priority should be to mitigate social impacts and protect vulnerable households.\"</p><p><blockquote>欧盟能源负责人卡德里·西姆森周三表示：“这次价格冲击是关键时刻的意外危机。”他确认欧盟将在下周概述其长期政策应对措施。“当务之急应该是减轻社会影响并保护弱势家庭。”</blockquote></p><p> In Europe, natural gas is now trading at the equivalent of $230 per barrel, in oil terms — up more than 130% since the beginning of September and more than eight times higher than the same point last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.</p><p><blockquote>根据独立商品情报服务的数据，在欧洲，天然气目前的交易价格相当于每桶230美元，自9月初以来上涨了130%以上，是去年同期的八倍多。</blockquote></p><p> In East Asia, the cost of natural gas is up 85% since the start of September, hitting roughly $204 per barrel in oil terms. Prices remain much lower in the United States, a net exporter of natural gas, but still have shot up to their highest levels in 13 years.</p><p><blockquote>在东亚，天然气成本自9月初以来上涨了85%，以石油计算达到每桶约204美元。天然气净出口国美国的价格仍然低得多，但仍飙升至13年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"A lot of it is feeding off of fear about what the winter's going to look like,\" said Nikos Tsafos, an energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He thinks that anxiety has caused the market to break away from the fundamentals of supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心的能源和地缘政治专家尼科斯·察福斯表示：“很大程度上是因为担心冬天会是什么样子。”他认为焦虑情绪导致市场脱离供需基本面。</blockquote></p><p> The frenzy to secure natural gas is also pushing up the price of coal and oil, which can be used as substitutes in some cases, but are even worse for the climate. India, which remains extremely dependent on coal, said this week that as many as 63 of its 135 coal-fired power plants have two days or less of supplies.</p><p><blockquote>获取天然气的狂热也推高了煤炭和石油的价格，在某些情况下，煤炭和石油可以用作替代品，但对气候的影响更大。仍然极度依赖煤炭的印度本周表示，其135家燃煤电厂中，多达63家的供应不足两天。</blockquote></p><p> The circumstances are causing central banks and investors to worry. Rising energy prices are contributing to inflation, which already was a major concern as the global economy tries to shake off the lingering effects of Covid-19. Dynamics over the winter could make matters worse.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况引起了央行和投资者的担忧。能源价格上涨正在加剧通货膨胀，随着全球经济试图摆脱Covid-19的挥之不去的影响，通货膨胀已经成为一个主要问题。冬季的动态可能会让事情变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No easy solution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>没有简单的解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p> The crisis is rooted in soaring demand for energy as the economic recovery from the pandemic takes hold, and a carefully calibrated system that's easily disrupted by weather events or mechanical problems.</p><p><blockquote>这场危机的根源在于，随着经济从大流行中复苏，能源需求飙升，以及精心校准的系统很容易被天气事件或机械问题破坏。</blockquote></p><p> An unusually long and cold winter earlier this year depleted stocks of natural gas in Europe. Soaring demand for energy has impeded the restocking process, which typically happens over the spring and summer.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候异常漫长而寒冷的冬季耗尽了欧洲的天然气库存。能源需求飙升阻碍了通常发生在春季和夏季的补货过程。</blockquote></p><p> China's growing appetite for liquified natural gas has meant LNG markets can't fill the gap. A decline in Russian gas exports and unusually calm winds have exacerbated the problem.</p><p><blockquote>中国对液化天然气日益增长的需求意味着液化天然气市场无法填补这一缺口。俄罗斯天然气出口的下降和异常平静的风加剧了这一问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The current surge in European energy power prices is truly unique,\" energy analysts at the Société Générale bank told clients this week. \"Never before have power prices risen so far, so fast. And we are only a few days into autumn — temperatures are still mild.\"</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行能源分析师本周对客户表示：“目前欧洲能源电价的飙升确实是独一无二的。”“电价从未上涨过如此之远、如此之快。而且我们才入秋几天——气温仍然温和。”</blockquote></p><p> The dynamics are reverberating globally. In the United States, natural gas prices have risen 47% since the beginning of August. The scramble for coal is also triggering a spike in the price many European companies have to pay for carbon credits so they can burn fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态正在全球范围内引起反响。在美国，天然气价格自8月初以来上涨了47%。对煤炭的争夺也引发了许多欧洲公司为燃烧化石燃料而必须支付的碳信用额价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the energy crunch is supporting oil prices, which hit seven-year highs in the United States this week. Bank of America recently predicted that a cold winter could push the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, past $100 per barrel. Prices haven't been that high since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>此外，能源紧缩正在支撑油价，本周美国油价触及七年高点。美国银行最近预测，寒冷的冬季可能会推动全球基准布伦特原油价格突破每桶100美元。自2014年以来，价格就没有那么高了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bcd17c239a923accbcb947fe0ffa5b5\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Jim Burkhard, who leads IHS Markit's research on crude oil, energy and mobility, said there's \"no immediate relief in sight.\"</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit原油、能源和流动性研究负责人吉姆·伯克哈德(Jim Burkhard)表示，“目前还看不到立即缓解的迹象”。</blockquote></p><p> \"There's no Saudi Arabia for gas,\" he said, referring to a single supplier that can quickly ramp up natural gas production. \"This looks like it's going to endure for the winter in the Northern Hemisphere.\"</p><p><blockquote>“没有沙特阿拉伯的天然气供应，”他说，指的是可以快速提高天然气产量的单一供应商。“这种情况看起来会持续到北半球的冬天。”</blockquote></p><p> Russia could theoretically step up. Société Générale noted that faster approval by German authorities of the politically-sensitive Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would carry gas directly from Russia to Europe, would ease significant stress.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，俄罗斯可以挺身而出。法国兴业银行指出，德国当局更快批准政治敏感的北溪2号管道，该管道将直接从俄国向欧洲输送天然气，将缓解重大压力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Russia could increase its output, saying that state-owned gas giant Gazprom has never \"refused to increase supplies to its consumers if they submit appropriate bids.\"</p><p><blockquote>周三，俄罗斯总统普京暗示俄罗斯可以增加产量，称国有天然气巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司从未“拒绝增加对其消费者的供应，如果他们提交适当的投标。”</blockquote></p><p> But Neil Chapman, senior vice president at ExxonMobil (XOM), emphasized the short-term constraints at an industry conference this week.</p><p><blockquote>但埃克森美孚（XOM）高级副总裁尼尔·查普曼（Neil Chapman）在本周的行业会议上强调了短期限制。</blockquote></p><p> \"Of course there's great concern,\" Chapman said at the virtual Energy Intelligence Forum. \"In our industry, because it's capital intensive, you can't just turn on the supply.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当然，人们非常担心，”查普曼在虚拟能源情报论坛上表示。“在我们这个行业，因为它是资本密集型的，你不能只是打开供应。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crisis with a cost</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有成本的危机</b></blockquote></p><p> The best case scenario, according to Burkhard, is that a winter with average temperatures allows pressure to lift in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Burkhard表示，最好的情况是，平均气温的冬季会让2022年第二季度的压力有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p> But severe weather in the coming months would create huge strain — particularly in countries that rely heavily on natural gas for energy production, like Italy and the United Kingdom. Britain is in a particularly tough spot because it lacks storage capacity, and is dealing with the fallout from a broken power line with France.</p><p><blockquote>但未来几个月的恶劣天气将造成巨大压力——特别是在意大利和英国等严重依赖天然气生产能源的国家。英国的处境尤其艰难，因为它缺乏存储能力，并且正在应对与法国输电线断裂的影响。</blockquote></p><p> \"The UK is arguably at the highest risk of Europe's major economies of a winter supply shortfall,\" Henning Gloystein, director of the energy, climate and resource team at consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a note to clients this week. \"Should this happen, the government would likely demand factories to reduce output and gas consumption in order to ensure household supply.\"</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司欧亚集团能源、气候和资源团队总监亨宁·格洛伊斯坦(Henning Gloystein)本周在给客户的一份报告中表示：“在欧洲主要经济体中，英国冬季供应短缺的风险可以说是最高的。”“如果发生这种情况，政府可能会要求工厂减少产量和天然气消耗，以确保家庭供应。”</blockquote></p><p> The massive jump in energy costs, which shows no signs of abating, is fanning inflation fears, which already had been forcing policymakers to carefully consider their next steps.</p><p><blockquote>能源成本的大幅上涨没有减弱的迹象，正在加剧通胀担忧，这已经迫使政策制定者仔细考虑下一步措施。</blockquote></p><p> Energy prices in developed countries rose 18% in August, the fastest pace since 2008, according to data released Tuesday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. And that was before the situation deteriorated significantly in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>经济合作与发展组织周二公布的数据显示，发达国家8月份能源价格上涨18%，为2008年以来最快涨幅。那是在最近几周局势明显恶化之前。</blockquote></p><p> Higher energy bills could crimp consumer spending on clothing or activities like dining out, hurting the comeback from the pandemic. If businesses are asked to curtail activity to conserve power, that could also hurt the economy.</p><p><blockquote>更高的能源费用可能会抑制消费者在服装或外出就餐等活动上的支出，从而损害疫情的复苏。如果企业被要求减少活动以节约电力，这也可能损害经济。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are concerns that rising gas prices will put Europe's post-pandemic economic recovery at risk,\" Gloystein said.</p><p><blockquote>Gloystein表示：“人们担心天然气价格上涨将使欧洲大流行后的经济复苏面临风险。”</blockquote></p><p> There's also anxiety that price volatility could feed public skepticism about funding for the energy transition, according to Gloystein, should consumers demand more investment in oil and gas to limit future fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>Gloystein表示，人们还担心，如果消费者要求对石油和天然气进行更多投资以限制未来的波动，价格波动可能会加剧公众对能源转型资金的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> Governments that have committed to reducing emissions are preemptively trying to send a firm message: This bolsters, not undermines, the case for investing in a broader mix of energy sources.</p><p><blockquote>承诺减少排放的政府正在先发制人地试图发出一个坚定的信息：这支持而不是削弱投资更广泛的能源组合的理由。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's very clear that with energy in the long term, it is important to invest in renewables,\" European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday. \"That gives us stable prices and more independence, because 90% of the gas is imported to the European Union.\"</p><p><blockquote>欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩周三表示：“很明显，从长远来看，投资可再生能源非常重要。”“这给了我们稳定的价格和更多的独立性，因为90%的天然气是进口到欧盟的。”</blockquote></p><p> — James Frater, Laura He, Katharina Krebs and Diksha Madhok contributed reporting.</p><p><blockquote>–James Frater、Laura He、Katharina Krebs和Diksha Madhok对报道有贡献。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/07/business/global-energy-crisis/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/07/business/global-energy-crisis/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145884564","content_text":"London (CNN Business)Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predictions of $100 oil.\nA global energy crunch caused by weather and a resurgence in demand is getting worse, stirring alarm ahead of the winter, when more energy is needed to light and heat homes. Governments around the world are trying to limit the impact on consumers, but acknowledge they may not be able to prevent bills spiking.\nFurther complicating the picture is mounting pressure on governments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in November.\nIn China, rolling blackouts for residents have already begun, while in India power stations are scrambling for coal. Consumer advocates in Europe are calling for a ban on disconnections if customers can't promptly settle what they owe.\n\"This price shock is an unexpected crisis at a critical juncture,\" EU energy chief Kadri Simson said Wednesday, confirming the bloc will outline its longer-term policy response next week. \"The immediate priority should be to mitigate social impacts and protect vulnerable households.\"\nIn Europe, natural gas is now trading at the equivalent of $230 per barrel, in oil terms — up more than 130% since the beginning of September and more than eight times higher than the same point last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.\nIn East Asia, the cost of natural gas is up 85% since the start of September, hitting roughly $204 per barrel in oil terms. Prices remain much lower in the United States, a net exporter of natural gas, but still have shot up to their highest levels in 13 years.\n\"A lot of it is feeding off of fear about what the winter's going to look like,\" said Nikos Tsafos, an energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He thinks that anxiety has caused the market to break away from the fundamentals of supply and demand.\nThe frenzy to secure natural gas is also pushing up the price of coal and oil, which can be used as substitutes in some cases, but are even worse for the climate. India, which remains extremely dependent on coal, said this week that as many as 63 of its 135 coal-fired power plants have two days or less of supplies.\nThe circumstances are causing central banks and investors to worry. Rising energy prices are contributing to inflation, which already was a major concern as the global economy tries to shake off the lingering effects of Covid-19. Dynamics over the winter could make matters worse.\nNo easy solution\nThe crisis is rooted in soaring demand for energy as the economic recovery from the pandemic takes hold, and a carefully calibrated system that's easily disrupted by weather events or mechanical problems.\nAn unusually long and cold winter earlier this year depleted stocks of natural gas in Europe. Soaring demand for energy has impeded the restocking process, which typically happens over the spring and summer.\nChina's growing appetite for liquified natural gas has meant LNG markets can't fill the gap. A decline in Russian gas exports and unusually calm winds have exacerbated the problem.\n\"The current surge in European energy power prices is truly unique,\" energy analysts at the Société Générale bank told clients this week. \"Never before have power prices risen so far, so fast. And we are only a few days into autumn — temperatures are still mild.\"\nThe dynamics are reverberating globally. In the United States, natural gas prices have risen 47% since the beginning of August. The scramble for coal is also triggering a spike in the price many European companies have to pay for carbon credits so they can burn fossil fuels.\nAdditionally, the energy crunch is supporting oil prices, which hit seven-year highs in the United States this week. Bank of America recently predicted that a cold winter could push the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, past $100 per barrel. Prices haven't been that high since 2014.\n\nJim Burkhard, who leads IHS Markit's research on crude oil, energy and mobility, said there's \"no immediate relief in sight.\"\n\"There's no Saudi Arabia for gas,\" he said, referring to a single supplier that can quickly ramp up natural gas production. \"This looks like it's going to endure for the winter in the Northern Hemisphere.\"\nRussia could theoretically step up. Société Générale noted that faster approval by German authorities of the politically-sensitive Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would carry gas directly from Russia to Europe, would ease significant stress.\nOn Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Russia could increase its output, saying that state-owned gas giant Gazprom has never \"refused to increase supplies to its consumers if they submit appropriate bids.\"\nBut Neil Chapman, senior vice president at ExxonMobil (XOM), emphasized the short-term constraints at an industry conference this week.\n\"Of course there's great concern,\" Chapman said at the virtual Energy Intelligence Forum. \"In our industry, because it's capital intensive, you can't just turn on the supply.\"\nCrisis with a cost\nThe best case scenario, according to Burkhard, is that a winter with average temperatures allows pressure to lift in the second quarter of 2022.\nBut severe weather in the coming months would create huge strain — particularly in countries that rely heavily on natural gas for energy production, like Italy and the United Kingdom. Britain is in a particularly tough spot because it lacks storage capacity, and is dealing with the fallout from a broken power line with France.\n\"The UK is arguably at the highest risk of Europe's major economies of a winter supply shortfall,\" Henning Gloystein, director of the energy, climate and resource team at consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a note to clients this week. \"Should this happen, the government would likely demand factories to reduce output and gas consumption in order to ensure household supply.\"\nThe massive jump in energy costs, which shows no signs of abating, is fanning inflation fears, which already had been forcing policymakers to carefully consider their next steps.\nEnergy prices in developed countries rose 18% in August, the fastest pace since 2008, according to data released Tuesday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. And that was before the situation deteriorated significantly in recent weeks.\nHigher energy bills could crimp consumer spending on clothing or activities like dining out, hurting the comeback from the pandemic. If businesses are asked to curtail activity to conserve power, that could also hurt the economy.\n\"There are concerns that rising gas prices will put Europe's post-pandemic economic recovery at risk,\" Gloystein said.\nThere's also anxiety that price volatility could feed public skepticism about funding for the energy transition, according to Gloystein, should consumers demand more investment in oil and gas to limit future fluctuations.\nGovernments that have committed to reducing emissions are preemptively trying to send a firm message: This bolsters, not undermines, the case for investing in a broader mix of energy sources.\n\"It's very clear that with energy in the long term, it is important to invest in renewables,\" European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday. \"That gives us stable prices and more independence, because 90% of the gas is imported to the European Union.\"\n— James Frater, Laura He, Katharina Krebs and Diksha Madhok contributed reporting.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377265518,"gmtCreate":1619531200834,"gmtModify":1631891247316,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True that","listText":"True that","text":"True that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377265518","repostId":"2130324098","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2130324098","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1619528400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2130324098?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 21:00","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Arm details new data center chips, says Oracle, Alibaba will use them<blockquote>Arm详细介绍了新的数据中心芯片，甲骨文表示阿里巴巴-SW将使用它们</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2130324098","media":"Reuters","summary":"By Stephen Nellis   April 27 (Reuters) - Arm Ltd, the British chip technology firm being acquired by","content":"<p><html><body>By Stephen Nellis</p><p><blockquote><html><body>斯蒂芬·内利斯</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   April 27 (Reuters) - Arm Ltd, the British chip technology firm being acquired by Nvidia Corp    in a $40 billion deal, on Tuesday gave new details about its next generation of data center technology and said Oracle Corp    and Alibaba Group Holding    will use the chips.</p><p><blockquote>路透4月27日-英伟达公司以400亿美元收购的英国芯片技术公司Arm Ltd周二提供了有关其下一代数据中心技术的新细节，并表示甲骨文公司和阿里巴巴-SW集团控股公司将使用这些芯片。</blockquote></p><p>   Arm creates underlying intellectual property that other firms such as Qualcomm Inc    or Apple Inc    then license to create their own processor chips. Arm's technology powers most mobile phones, but it is making a push into data center processors, where Intel Corp    and Advanced Micro Devices    have long dominated.</p><p><blockquote>Arm创建基础知识产权，然后由高通公司或苹果公司等其他公司授权创建自己的处理器芯片。Arm的技术为大多数手机提供动力，但它正在进军数据中心处理器，英特尔公司和Advanced Micro Devices长期以来一直在该领域占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p>   Analysts view Arm's data center efforts as the key reason that Nvidia, which also competes against Intel, sought to buy the firm. British officials have invoked a national security law to review the deal.   </p><p><blockquote>分析师认为，Arm在数据中心的努力是英伟达寻求收购该公司的关键原因，英伟达也与英特尔竞争。英国官员援引国家安全法审查该交易。</blockquote></p><p>   Arm said on Tuesday that its \"N2\" Neoverse computing cores are expected to be about 40% faster than the previous generation. The company also said that its \"V1\" cores - which are designed to handle a different type of math commonly used for artificial intelligence - are expected to be 50% faster than traditional methods of doing the same tasks.</p><p><blockquote>Arm周二表示，其“N2”Neoverse计算内核预计将比上一代快40%左右。该公司还表示，其“V1”内核——旨在处理人工智能常用的不同类型的数学——预计将比执行相同任务的传统方法快50%。</blockquote></p><p>   Arm said that Marvell Technology Inc    is making a chip using its new technology. It also said that Oracle will use Arm-based chips made by Ampere Computing in its growing cloud computing business, and that Chinese technology giant Alibaba is preparing to offer Arm-based cloud computing services, though the chip vendor was not disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>Arm表示，Marvell Technology Inc正在使用其新技术制造芯片。它还表示，甲骨文将在其不断增长的云计算业务中使用Ampere Computing制造的基于Arm的芯片，中国科技巨头阿里巴巴-SW正准备提供基于Arm的云计算服务，但没有透露芯片供应商。</blockquote></p><p>   The new cloud customers come after Intel for years controlled more than 90% of the market for data center chips.  Chris Bergey, Arm's senior vice president and general manager for its infrastructure line of business, said that Arm's approach has been to license its technology to many different chip companies who are taking different approaches to winning business from cloud customers.</p><p><blockquote>新的云客户是在英特尔多年来控制90%以上的数据中心芯片市场之后出现的。Arm高级副总裁兼基础设施业务线总经理Chris Bergey表示，Arm的做法是将其技术授权给许多不同的芯片公司，这些公司正在采取不同的方法从云客户那里赢得业务。</blockquote></p><p>   \"We're all engineers here - there's different optimization points, there's different views\" Bergey told Reuters in an interview. \"I don't think anyone is saying Arm is not a viable alternative.\"</p><p><blockquote>伯杰在接受路透社采访时表示：“我们都是工程师——有不同的优化点，有不同的观点。”“我认为没有人说Arm不是一个可行的替代方案。”</blockquote></p><p> (Reporting by Stephen Nellis in San Francisco Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)</p><p><blockquote>（斯蒂芬·内利斯旧金山报道Sonya Hepinstall编辑）</blockquote></p><p>((Stephen.Nellis@thomsonreuters.com; (415) 344-4934;))</p><p><blockquote>((Stephen.Nellis@thomsonreuters.com；(415)344-4934；))</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Arm details new data center chips, says Oracle, Alibaba will use them<blockquote>Arm详细介绍了新的数据中心芯片，甲骨文表示阿里巴巴-SW将使用它们</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nArm details new data center chips, says Oracle, Alibaba will use them<blockquote>Arm详细介绍了新的数据中心芯片，甲骨文表示阿里巴巴-SW将使用它们</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-27 21:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>By Stephen Nellis</p><p><blockquote><html><body>斯蒂芬·内利斯</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   April 27 (Reuters) - Arm Ltd, the British chip technology firm being acquired by Nvidia Corp    in a $40 billion deal, on Tuesday gave new details about its next generation of data center technology and said Oracle Corp    and Alibaba Group Holding    will use the chips.</p><p><blockquote>路透4月27日-英伟达公司以400亿美元收购的英国芯片技术公司Arm Ltd周二提供了有关其下一代数据中心技术的新细节，并表示甲骨文公司和阿里巴巴-SW集团控股公司将使用这些芯片。</blockquote></p><p>   Arm creates underlying intellectual property that other firms such as Qualcomm Inc    or Apple Inc    then license to create their own processor chips. Arm's technology powers most mobile phones, but it is making a push into data center processors, where Intel Corp    and Advanced Micro Devices    have long dominated.</p><p><blockquote>Arm创建基础知识产权，然后由高通公司或苹果公司等其他公司授权创建自己的处理器芯片。Arm的技术为大多数手机提供动力，但它正在进军数据中心处理器，英特尔公司和Advanced Micro Devices长期以来一直在该领域占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p>   Analysts view Arm's data center efforts as the key reason that Nvidia, which also competes against Intel, sought to buy the firm. British officials have invoked a national security law to review the deal.   </p><p><blockquote>分析师认为，Arm在数据中心的努力是英伟达寻求收购该公司的关键原因，英伟达也与英特尔竞争。英国官员援引国家安全法审查该交易。</blockquote></p><p>   Arm said on Tuesday that its \"N2\" Neoverse computing cores are expected to be about 40% faster than the previous generation. The company also said that its \"V1\" cores - which are designed to handle a different type of math commonly used for artificial intelligence - are expected to be 50% faster than traditional methods of doing the same tasks.</p><p><blockquote>Arm周二表示，其“N2”Neoverse计算内核预计将比上一代快40%左右。该公司还表示，其“V1”内核——旨在处理人工智能常用的不同类型的数学——预计将比执行相同任务的传统方法快50%。</blockquote></p><p>   Arm said that Marvell Technology Inc    is making a chip using its new technology. It also said that Oracle will use Arm-based chips made by Ampere Computing in its growing cloud computing business, and that Chinese technology giant Alibaba is preparing to offer Arm-based cloud computing services, though the chip vendor was not disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>Arm表示，Marvell Technology Inc正在使用其新技术制造芯片。它还表示，甲骨文将在其不断增长的云计算业务中使用Ampere Computing制造的基于Arm的芯片，中国科技巨头阿里巴巴-SW正准备提供基于Arm的云计算服务，但没有透露芯片供应商。</blockquote></p><p>   The new cloud customers come after Intel for years controlled more than 90% of the market for data center chips.  Chris Bergey, Arm's senior vice president and general manager for its infrastructure line of business, said that Arm's approach has been to license its technology to many different chip companies who are taking different approaches to winning business from cloud customers.</p><p><blockquote>新的云客户是在英特尔多年来控制90%以上的数据中心芯片市场之后出现的。Arm高级副总裁兼基础设施业务线总经理Chris Bergey表示，Arm的做法是将其技术授权给许多不同的芯片公司，这些公司正在采取不同的方法从云客户那里赢得业务。</blockquote></p><p>   \"We're all engineers here - there's different optimization points, there's different views\" Bergey told Reuters in an interview. \"I don't think anyone is saying Arm is not a viable alternative.\"</p><p><blockquote>伯杰在接受路透社采访时表示：“我们都是工程师——有不同的优化点，有不同的观点。”“我认为没有人说Arm不是一个可行的替代方案。”</blockquote></p><p> (Reporting by Stephen Nellis in San Francisco Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)</p><p><blockquote>（斯蒂芬·内利斯旧金山报道Sonya Hepinstall编辑）</blockquote></p><p>((Stephen.Nellis@thomsonreuters.com; (415) 344-4934;))</p><p><blockquote>((Stephen.Nellis@thomsonreuters.com；(415)344-4934；))</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","ORCL":"甲骨文","QCOM":"高通","BABA":"阿里巴巴","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130324098","content_text":"By Stephen Nellis   April 27 (Reuters) - Arm Ltd, the British chip technology firm being acquired by Nvidia Corp    in a $40 billion deal, on Tuesday gave new details about its next generation of data center technology and said Oracle Corp    and Alibaba Group Holding    will use the chips.   Arm creates underlying intellectual property that other firms such as Qualcomm Inc    or Apple Inc    then license to create their own processor chips. Arm's technology powers most mobile phones, but it is making a push into data center processors, where Intel Corp    and Advanced Micro Devices    have long dominated.   Analysts view Arm's data center efforts as the key reason that Nvidia, which also competes against Intel, sought to buy the firm. British officials have invoked a national security law to review the deal.      Arm said on Tuesday that its \"N2\" Neoverse computing cores are expected to be about 40% faster than the previous generation. The company also said that its \"V1\" cores - which are designed to handle a different type of math commonly used for artificial intelligence - are expected to be 50% faster than traditional methods of doing the same tasks.   Arm said that Marvell Technology Inc    is making a chip using its new technology. It also said that Oracle will use Arm-based chips made by Ampere Computing in its growing cloud computing business, and that Chinese technology giant Alibaba is preparing to offer Arm-based cloud computing services, though the chip vendor was not disclosed.   The new cloud customers come after Intel for years controlled more than 90% of the market for data center chips.  Chris Bergey, Arm's senior vice president and general manager for its infrastructure line of business, said that Arm's approach has been to license its technology to many different chip companies who are taking different approaches to winning business from cloud customers.   \"We're all engineers here - there's different optimization points, there's different views\" Bergey told Reuters in an interview. \"I don't think anyone is saying Arm is not a viable alternative.\" (Reporting by Stephen Nellis in San Francisco Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)((Stephen.Nellis@thomsonreuters.com; (415) 344-4934;))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"09988":1,"NVDA":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"BABA":1,"QNETCN":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,"ORCL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":848517135,"gmtCreate":1636012293745,"gmtModify":1636012293877,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like it like","listText":"Like it like","text":"Like it like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848517135","repostId":"1176588625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176588625","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636010158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176588625?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 15:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Activision Blizzard Stock Had Its Worst Day Since 2008. Game Delays Caught Wall Street Off Guard.<blockquote>动视暴雪股价经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176588625","media":"Barrons","summary":"Activision Blizzard stock had its worst day since November 2008 on Wednesday as Wall Street tempered","content":"<p>Activision Blizzard&nbsp;stock had its worst day since November 2008 on Wednesday as Wall Street tempered expectations for the coming quarters. Delays for games <i>Overwatch 2</i> and <i>Diablo IV</i> caught Wall Street off guard.</p><p><blockquote>由于华尔街降低了对未来几个季度的预期，动视暴雪股价周三创下2008年11月以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟<i>守望先锋2</i>和<i>暗黑破坏神4</i>让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> The company (ticker: ATVI) joined a swath of videogame firms that have pushed back the release of key titles amid the pandemic. Activision Blizzard said it’s not planning for material contributions from <i>Diablo IV</i> and <i>Overwatch 2</i> in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司（股票代码：ATVI）加入了一系列视频游戏公司的行列，在疫情期间推迟了关键游戏的发布。动视暴雪表示，不打算从<i>暗黑破坏神4</i>和<i>守望先锋2</i>2022年。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the videogame firm fell about 14%, to $66.75, on Wednesday, the stock’s worst single-day percentage drop since it fell 15.6% on Nov. 14, 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose 0.6%, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;rose 1% on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>根据道琼斯市场数据，这家视频游戏公司的股价周三下跌约14%，至66.75美元，这是该股自2008年11月14日下跌15.6%以来最大单日百分比跌幅。标普500指数周三上涨0.6%，纳斯达克上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Baird analyst Colin Sebastian titled his Wednesday note “Q3 Recap: Should Have Known Better.”</p><p><blockquote>贝尔德分析师科林·塞巴斯蒂安(Colin Sebastian)将他周三的报告标题为“第三季度回顾：应该更清楚”。</blockquote></p><p> “While shares will trade lower embedding the push-out of revenues and earnings, compounding already frayed management credibility, we’d remind investors that it’s not unusual for Blizzard to delay new releases, and that other competing console/PC titles were pushed out at least a year, reflecting work-from-home issues,” Sebastian wrote.</p><p><blockquote>塞巴斯蒂安写道：“虽然由于收入和盈利的推动，股价将走低，加剧了本已受损的管理层信誉，但我们提醒投资者，暴雪推迟新版本的发布并不罕见，其他竞争对手的游戏机/PC游戏也被推出至少一年，反映了在家工作的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> For Activision Blizzard, Sebastian notes that the company is also experiencing internal disruptions following months of headlines and complaints from employees about the firm’s workplace culture.</p><p><blockquote>对于动视暴雪，塞巴斯蒂安指出，在几个月的头条新闻和员工对公司工作场所文化的抱怨之后，该公司也正在经历内部混乱。</blockquote></p><p> Executives said during the company’s earnings call that Jen Oneal, who became Blizzard’s co-leader in August along with Mike Ybarra, plans to depart at the end of the year. The company cited leadership changes when discussing the delays.</p><p><blockquote>高管们在公司财报看涨期权上表示，8月份与Mike Ybarra一起成为暴雪联席领导者的Jen Oneal计划在今年年底离职。该公司在讨论延误时提到了领导层的变动。</blockquote></p><p> Activision Blizzard is responding to employee concerns that were brought to investors’ attention when the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing filed&nbsp;a civil lawsuit in July. The agency alleged that the company “fostered a pervasive ‘frat boy’ workplace culture.” The firm also disclosed that the Securities and Exchange Commission was looking into disclosures related to workplace issues.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪正在回应员工的担忧，这些担忧在加州公平就业和住房部7月份提起民事诉讼时引起了投资者的注意。该机构声称，该公司“培养了一种普遍的‘兄弟会男孩’工作场所文化”。该公司还透露，美国证券交易委员会正在调查与工作场所问题相关的披露。</blockquote></p><p> Following an employee walkout, CEO Bobby Kotick recently said he’d cut his salary to the minimum allowed under California law. He also pledged that the company would take actions like investing $250 million toward opportunities for people from under-represented groups and increasing the percentage of women and non-binary people in its workforce by 50% within the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>员工罢工后，首席执行官鲍比·科蒂克最近表示，他已将工资削减至加州法律允许的最低水平。他还承诺，公司将采取行动，例如投资2.5亿美元为代表性不足的群体提供机会，并在未来五年内将女性和非二元性别人群在员工队伍中的比例提高50%。</blockquote></p><p> “Activision Blizzard is currently under investigation regarding accusations of workplace harassment,” Sebastian wrote, when discussing environmental, social, and governance considerations for the stock. “Clearly this will cast a shadow on the company’s social and governance efforts at least for the nearterm.”</p><p><blockquote>塞巴斯蒂安在讨论该股的环境、社会和治理考虑因素时写道：“动视暴雪目前正在接受有关工作场所骚扰指控的调查。”“显然，至少在短期内，这将给公司的社会和治理工作蒙上阴影。”</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners analyst Eric Handler cut his rating to Neutral from Buy and his price target to $75 from $108 in a note on Wednesday. He pointed to the delays, ongoing personnel turnover, and his belief that not all the bad news is out of the way.</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners分析师Eric Handler在周三的一份报告中将其评级从买入下调至中性，目标价从108美元下调至75美元。他指出了延误、持续的人员流动，以及他认为并非所有坏消息都已消除。</blockquote></p><p> “With increased uncertainty towards the every-other-year release of a [World of Warcraft] Modern expansion pack and for the various mobile titles currently in development, the 2022 projected growth curve has substantially flattened from our prior view,” Handler wrote.</p><p><blockquote>汉德勒写道：“随着[魔兽世界]现代资料片每隔一年发布一次以及目前正在开发的各种移动游戏的不确定性增加，2022年的预计增长曲线与我们之前的观点相比已基本持平。”</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who cut his price target to $98 from $125 but maintained an Outperform rating, noted that he suspected <i>Overwatch 2</i> could slip into 2023 when the game’s previous director Jeff Kaplan left the company in April.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter将目标价从125美元下调至98美元，但维持跑赢大盘评级，他指出，他怀疑<i>守望先锋2</i>当游戏前任总监杰夫·卡普兰(Jeff Kaplan)于4月份离开公司时，情况可能会滑入2023年。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst added that for the sequel, players will compete on teams of five, rather than the six in the current <i>Overwatch</i> game—a change that necessitated an overhaul of how the game is played. Still, comments from developers about the game’s progress as recently as two months ago seemingly signaled to Pachter that the game was on track for a 2022 release.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师补充说，在续集中，玩家将以五人一组的形式竞争，而不是目前的六人一组<i>守望</i>游戏——一个需要彻底改变游戏玩法的变化。尽管如此，就在两个月前，开发者对游戏进展的评论似乎向帕切特发出了信号，即游戏有望在2022年发布。</blockquote></p><p> “We think that Activision’s multi -channel distribution strategy for its games (premium, mobile, free-to-play and ongoing in-game monetization for premium) will ultimately pay large dividends, but the stock price suggests that investors have tired of waiting,” Pachter wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为动视暴雪对其游戏的多渠道发行策略（高级版、移动版、免费版和持续的高级版游戏内货币化）最终将带来巨额红利，但股价表明投资者已经厌倦了等待，”帕切特写道。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang cut his target to $85 from $100, noting that game delays are among the least challenging issues the company will face in the next year. He points to a leadership vacuum and concerns about talent retention.</p><p><blockquote>Oppenheimer分析师Martin Yang将目标从100美元下调至85美元，并指出游戏延迟是该公司明年面临的最不具挑战性的问题之一。他指出了领导真空和对人才保留的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe Blizzard faces the long-term challenges of repairing its brand and attracting new talent, at a time when demand for talent is greater than ever, and funding/infrastructure supporting experienced developers/artists to start their own studios is abundant,” Yang wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为暴雪面临着修复品牌和吸引新人才的长期挑战，而此时对人才的需求比以往任何时候都大，支持有经验的开发者/艺术家创办自己的工作室的资金/基础设施也很充足，”杨写道。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, Yang says investors still have a company with a strong balance sheet and cash flows, and the durable strength of its <i>Call of Duty</i> franchise and its King mobile games segment.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，杨表示，投资者仍然拥有一家资产负债表和现金流强劲的公司，以及其持久的实力<i>职务看涨期权</i>特许经营及其王者手机游戏细分市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “While Blizzard has major challenges ahead, it is not a lost cause,” Yang wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然暴雪面临重大挑战，但这并不是一个失败的事业，”杨写道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Activision Blizzard Stock Had Its Worst Day Since 2008. Game Delays Caught Wall Street Off Guard.<blockquote>动视暴雪股价经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nActivision Blizzard Stock Had Its Worst Day Since 2008. Game Delays Caught Wall Street Off Guard.<blockquote>动视暴雪股价经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 15:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Activision Blizzard&nbsp;stock had its worst day since November 2008 on Wednesday as Wall Street tempered expectations for the coming quarters. Delays for games <i>Overwatch 2</i> and <i>Diablo IV</i> caught Wall Street off guard.</p><p><blockquote>由于华尔街降低了对未来几个季度的预期，动视暴雪股价周三创下2008年11月以来最糟糕的一天。游戏延迟<i>守望先锋2</i>和<i>暗黑破坏神4</i>让华尔街措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> The company (ticker: ATVI) joined a swath of videogame firms that have pushed back the release of key titles amid the pandemic. Activision Blizzard said it’s not planning for material contributions from <i>Diablo IV</i> and <i>Overwatch 2</i> in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司（股票代码：ATVI）加入了一系列视频游戏公司的行列，在疫情期间推迟了关键游戏的发布。动视暴雪表示，不打算从<i>暗黑破坏神4</i>和<i>守望先锋2</i>2022年。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the videogame firm fell about 14%, to $66.75, on Wednesday, the stock’s worst single-day percentage drop since it fell 15.6% on Nov. 14, 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose 0.6%, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;rose 1% on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>根据道琼斯市场数据，这家视频游戏公司的股价周三下跌约14%，至66.75美元，这是该股自2008年11月14日下跌15.6%以来最大单日百分比跌幅。标普500指数周三上涨0.6%，纳斯达克上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Baird analyst Colin Sebastian titled his Wednesday note “Q3 Recap: Should Have Known Better.”</p><p><blockquote>贝尔德分析师科林·塞巴斯蒂安(Colin Sebastian)将他周三的报告标题为“第三季度回顾：应该更清楚”。</blockquote></p><p> “While shares will trade lower embedding the push-out of revenues and earnings, compounding already frayed management credibility, we’d remind investors that it’s not unusual for Blizzard to delay new releases, and that other competing console/PC titles were pushed out at least a year, reflecting work-from-home issues,” Sebastian wrote.</p><p><blockquote>塞巴斯蒂安写道：“虽然由于收入和盈利的推动，股价将走低，加剧了本已受损的管理层信誉，但我们提醒投资者，暴雪推迟新版本的发布并不罕见，其他竞争对手的游戏机/PC游戏也被推出至少一年，反映了在家工作的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> For Activision Blizzard, Sebastian notes that the company is also experiencing internal disruptions following months of headlines and complaints from employees about the firm’s workplace culture.</p><p><blockquote>对于动视暴雪，塞巴斯蒂安指出，在几个月的头条新闻和员工对公司工作场所文化的抱怨之后，该公司也正在经历内部混乱。</blockquote></p><p> Executives said during the company’s earnings call that Jen Oneal, who became Blizzard’s co-leader in August along with Mike Ybarra, plans to depart at the end of the year. The company cited leadership changes when discussing the delays.</p><p><blockquote>高管们在公司财报看涨期权上表示，8月份与Mike Ybarra一起成为暴雪联席领导者的Jen Oneal计划在今年年底离职。该公司在讨论延误时提到了领导层的变动。</blockquote></p><p> Activision Blizzard is responding to employee concerns that were brought to investors’ attention when the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing filed&nbsp;a civil lawsuit in July. The agency alleged that the company “fostered a pervasive ‘frat boy’ workplace culture.” The firm also disclosed that the Securities and Exchange Commission was looking into disclosures related to workplace issues.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪正在回应员工的担忧，这些担忧在加州公平就业和住房部7月份提起民事诉讼时引起了投资者的注意。该机构声称，该公司“培养了一种普遍的‘兄弟会男孩’工作场所文化”。该公司还透露，美国证券交易委员会正在调查与工作场所问题相关的披露。</blockquote></p><p> Following an employee walkout, CEO Bobby Kotick recently said he’d cut his salary to the minimum allowed under California law. He also pledged that the company would take actions like investing $250 million toward opportunities for people from under-represented groups and increasing the percentage of women and non-binary people in its workforce by 50% within the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>员工罢工后，首席执行官鲍比·科蒂克最近表示，他已将工资削减至加州法律允许的最低水平。他还承诺，公司将采取行动，例如投资2.5亿美元为代表性不足的群体提供机会，并在未来五年内将女性和非二元性别人群在员工队伍中的比例提高50%。</blockquote></p><p> “Activision Blizzard is currently under investigation regarding accusations of workplace harassment,” Sebastian wrote, when discussing environmental, social, and governance considerations for the stock. “Clearly this will cast a shadow on the company’s social and governance efforts at least for the nearterm.”</p><p><blockquote>塞巴斯蒂安在讨论该股的环境、社会和治理考虑因素时写道：“动视暴雪目前正在接受有关工作场所骚扰指控的调查。”“显然，至少在短期内，这将给公司的社会和治理工作蒙上阴影。”</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners analyst Eric Handler cut his rating to Neutral from Buy and his price target to $75 from $108 in a note on Wednesday. He pointed to the delays, ongoing personnel turnover, and his belief that not all the bad news is out of the way.</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners分析师Eric Handler在周三的一份报告中将其评级从买入下调至中性，目标价从108美元下调至75美元。他指出了延误、持续的人员流动，以及他认为并非所有坏消息都已消除。</blockquote></p><p> “With increased uncertainty towards the every-other-year release of a [World of Warcraft] Modern expansion pack and for the various mobile titles currently in development, the 2022 projected growth curve has substantially flattened from our prior view,” Handler wrote.</p><p><blockquote>汉德勒写道：“随着[魔兽世界]现代资料片每隔一年发布一次以及目前正在开发的各种移动游戏的不确定性增加，2022年的预计增长曲线与我们之前的观点相比已基本持平。”</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who cut his price target to $98 from $125 but maintained an Outperform rating, noted that he suspected <i>Overwatch 2</i> could slip into 2023 when the game’s previous director Jeff Kaplan left the company in April.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter将目标价从125美元下调至98美元，但维持跑赢大盘评级，他指出，他怀疑<i>守望先锋2</i>当游戏前任总监杰夫·卡普兰(Jeff Kaplan)于4月份离开公司时，情况可能会滑入2023年。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst added that for the sequel, players will compete on teams of five, rather than the six in the current <i>Overwatch</i> game—a change that necessitated an overhaul of how the game is played. Still, comments from developers about the game’s progress as recently as two months ago seemingly signaled to Pachter that the game was on track for a 2022 release.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师补充说，在续集中，玩家将以五人一组的形式竞争，而不是目前的六人一组<i>守望</i>游戏——一个需要彻底改变游戏玩法的变化。尽管如此，就在两个月前，开发者对游戏进展的评论似乎向帕切特发出了信号，即游戏有望在2022年发布。</blockquote></p><p> “We think that Activision’s multi -channel distribution strategy for its games (premium, mobile, free-to-play and ongoing in-game monetization for premium) will ultimately pay large dividends, but the stock price suggests that investors have tired of waiting,” Pachter wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为动视暴雪对其游戏的多渠道发行策略（高级版、移动版、免费版和持续的高级版游戏内货币化）最终将带来巨额红利，但股价表明投资者已经厌倦了等待，”帕切特写道。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang cut his target to $85 from $100, noting that game delays are among the least challenging issues the company will face in the next year. He points to a leadership vacuum and concerns about talent retention.</p><p><blockquote>Oppenheimer分析师Martin Yang将目标从100美元下调至85美元，并指出游戏延迟是该公司明年面临的最不具挑战性的问题之一。他指出了领导真空和对人才保留的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe Blizzard faces the long-term challenges of repairing its brand and attracting new talent, at a time when demand for talent is greater than ever, and funding/infrastructure supporting experienced developers/artists to start their own studios is abundant,” Yang wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为暴雪面临着修复品牌和吸引新人才的长期挑战，而此时对人才的需求比以往任何时候都大，支持有经验的开发者/艺术家创办自己的工作室的资金/基础设施也很充足，”杨写道。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, Yang says investors still have a company with a strong balance sheet and cash flows, and the durable strength of its <i>Call of Duty</i> franchise and its King mobile games segment.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，杨表示，投资者仍然拥有一家资产负债表和现金流强劲的公司，以及其持久的实力<i>职务看涨期权</i>特许经营及其王者手机游戏细分市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “While Blizzard has major challenges ahead, it is not a lost cause,” Yang wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然暴雪面临重大挑战，但这并不是一个失败的事业，”杨写道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/activision-blizzard-stock-worst-day-game-delays-51635971518?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ATVI":"动视暴雪"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/activision-blizzard-stock-worst-day-game-delays-51635971518?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176588625","content_text":"Activision Blizzard stock had its worst day since November 2008 on Wednesday as Wall Street tempered expectations for the coming quarters. Delays for games Overwatch 2 and Diablo IV caught Wall Street off guard.\nThe company (ticker: ATVI) joined a swath of videogame firms that have pushed back the release of key titles amid the pandemic. Activision Blizzard said it’s not planning for material contributions from Diablo IV and Overwatch 2 in 2022.\nShares of the videogame firm fell about 14%, to $66.75, on Wednesday, the stock’s worst single-day percentage drop since it fell 15.6% on Nov. 14, 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 1% on Wednesday.\nBaird analyst Colin Sebastian titled his Wednesday note “Q3 Recap: Should Have Known Better.”\n“While shares will trade lower embedding the push-out of revenues and earnings, compounding already frayed management credibility, we’d remind investors that it’s not unusual for Blizzard to delay new releases, and that other competing console/PC titles were pushed out at least a year, reflecting work-from-home issues,” Sebastian wrote.\nFor Activision Blizzard, Sebastian notes that the company is also experiencing internal disruptions following months of headlines and complaints from employees about the firm’s workplace culture.\nExecutives said during the company’s earnings call that Jen Oneal, who became Blizzard’s co-leader in August along with Mike Ybarra, plans to depart at the end of the year. The company cited leadership changes when discussing the delays.\nActivision Blizzard is responding to employee concerns that were brought to investors’ attention when the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing filed a civil lawsuit in July. The agency alleged that the company “fostered a pervasive ‘frat boy’ workplace culture.” The firm also disclosed that the Securities and Exchange Commission was looking into disclosures related to workplace issues.\nFollowing an employee walkout, CEO Bobby Kotick recently said he’d cut his salary to the minimum allowed under California law. He also pledged that the company would take actions like investing $250 million toward opportunities for people from under-represented groups and increasing the percentage of women and non-binary people in its workforce by 50% within the next five years.\n“Activision Blizzard is currently under investigation regarding accusations of workplace harassment,” Sebastian wrote, when discussing environmental, social, and governance considerations for the stock. “Clearly this will cast a shadow on the company’s social and governance efforts at least for the nearterm.”\nMKM Partners analyst Eric Handler cut his rating to Neutral from Buy and his price target to $75 from $108 in a note on Wednesday. He pointed to the delays, ongoing personnel turnover, and his belief that not all the bad news is out of the way.\n“With increased uncertainty towards the every-other-year release of a [World of Warcraft] Modern expansion pack and for the various mobile titles currently in development, the 2022 projected growth curve has substantially flattened from our prior view,” Handler wrote.\nWedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who cut his price target to $98 from $125 but maintained an Outperform rating, noted that he suspected Overwatch 2 could slip into 2023 when the game’s previous director Jeff Kaplan left the company in April.\nThe analyst added that for the sequel, players will compete on teams of five, rather than the six in the current Overwatch game—a change that necessitated an overhaul of how the game is played. Still, comments from developers about the game’s progress as recently as two months ago seemingly signaled to Pachter that the game was on track for a 2022 release.\n“We think that Activision’s multi -channel distribution strategy for its games (premium, mobile, free-to-play and ongoing in-game monetization for premium) will ultimately pay large dividends, but the stock price suggests that investors have tired of waiting,” Pachter wrote.\nOppenheimer analyst Martin Yang cut his target to $85 from $100, noting that game delays are among the least challenging issues the company will face in the next year. He points to a leadership vacuum and concerns about talent retention.\n“We believe Blizzard faces the long-term challenges of repairing its brand and attracting new talent, at a time when demand for talent is greater than ever, and funding/infrastructure supporting experienced developers/artists to start their own studios is abundant,” Yang wrote.\nIn the meantime, Yang says investors still have a company with a strong balance sheet and cash flows, and the durable strength of its Call of Duty franchise and its King mobile games segment.\n“While Blizzard has major challenges ahead, it is not a lost cause,” Yang wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ATVI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848514751,"gmtCreate":1636012262021,"gmtModify":1636012279057,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not exactly","listText":"Not exactly","text":"Not exactly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848514751","repostId":"1196366330","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196366330","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636011077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196366330?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow Stops Homebuying: How Will This Impact Their Stock Forecast?<blockquote>Zillow停止购房：这将如何影响他们的股票预测？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196366330","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nZillow had paused, and now will completely wind down, home buying with the division termina","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Zillow had paused, and now will completely wind down, home buying with the division terminating over the next few quarters.</li>  <li>There is evidence of a slowing housing market and Zillow is reportedly offloading homes below cost and will take a significant asset write-down.</li>  <li>Zillow's stock has been in a downward cycle since February of this year, and this shows no signs of slowing.</li>  <li>The IMT segment posted positive Q3 results, which were obviously overshadowed by the news above.</li>  <li>How do these moving parts impact the company's prospects?</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db785603fd1fe96aa3ee17c4196b74dd\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Xacto/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Zillow已经暂停，现在将完全停止购房，该部门将在未来几个季度内终止。</li><li>有证据表明房地产市场正在放缓，据报道，Zillow正在以低于成本的价格出售房屋，并将进行大幅资产减记。</li><li>自今年2月以来，Zillow的股价一直处于下行周期，而且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>IMT部门公布了积极的第三季度业绩，这显然被上述消息所掩盖。</li><li>这些活动部件如何影响公司的前景？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Xacto/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Did Zillow Stop Home Buying?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow为什么停止购房？</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) is a digital real estate company which operates in three divisions. First, it operates its Internet, Media, and Technology (IMT) segment which produces revenue through Premier Agent or advertising revenues from agents. Second, the mortgage segment makes money by performing loan originations and reselling mortgages. The third segment, and largest segment by revenue, is the Homes segment, commonly known as Zillow Offers. In this segment the company purchases, fixes, and resells residential real estate. Zillow announced it&nbsp;will be winding this segment down completely&nbsp;during their Q3 earnings release. The wind-down includes an asset write-down of over $300M as well.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow Group，Inc.（Z）是一家数字房地产公司，分为三个部门。首先，它运营互联网、媒体和技术（IMT）部门，该部门通过Premier Agent或代理商的广告收入产生收入。其次，抵押贷款部门通过发放贷款和转售抵押贷款来赚钱。第三个细分市场，也是收入最大的细分市场，是住宅细分市场，通常称为Zillow Offers。在这一部分，该公司购买、修理和转售住宅房地产。Zillow宣布将在第三季度财报发布期间完全关闭该细分市场。此次缩减还包括超过3亿美元的资产减记。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, how did we get here?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，我们是怎么到这里的？</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-October, Zillow paused this segment through at least the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>10月中旬，Zillow暂停了这一细分市场，至少到2021年底。</blockquote></p><p>   We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time...\"    Company Spokesman per Seeking Alpha, courtesy Bloomberg.  This news had both positive and negative elements. First, on the positive side, it is obvious that the iBuying program is immensely popular. Zillow reported&nbsp;that 1% of homes in Q2 2021&nbsp;used some type of iBuying program. This may not seem significant at just 1%, however considering the United States home sales market is&nbsp;expected to reach $2.5&nbsp;<i>trillion</i>&nbsp;in 2021, this is a very big number indeed. I also considered it positive that Zillow recognized that they were becoming overextended and paused, rather than risking serious systemic issues that would hurt customers and damage their reputation.</p><p><blockquote>我们的Zillow Offers业务超出了运营能力，目前不会签订额外的购房合同……”Seeking Alpha的公司发言人，由彭博社提供。这个消息既有积极的因素，也有消极的因素。首先，从积极的一面来看，iBuying计划显然非常受欢迎。Zillow报告称，2021年第二季度有1%的家庭使用某种类型的iBuying计划。这可能看起来并不重要，只有1%，但考虑到美国房屋销售市场预计将达到2.5美元<i>万亿</i>2021年，这确实是一个非常大的数字。我还认为，Zillow认识到他们正在变得过度扩张和暂停，而不是冒着严重的系统性问题的风险，这是积极的，这些问题会伤害客户并损害他们的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> This has clear implications for competitors like Redfin (RDFN) and Opendoor (OPEN) to accumulate market share. The iBuying process is popular, but it must be managed correctly. I have seen no indication that they will cease their programs.</p><p><blockquote>这对于Redfin(RDFN)和Opendoor(OPEN)等竞争对手积累市场份额具有明显的影响。iBuying流程很受欢迎，但必须正确管理。我没有看到他们会停止他们的项目的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Further, this could be a reflection that the red-hot market is cooling. Zillow may have many more sellers in line than buyers. While the secular demand trends are expected to be positive, as&nbsp;the country is short millions of homes, the short-term could get bumpy. Two days prior to this announcement, Redfin&nbsp;reported a drop in both homes sales, which dropped 9%, and new listings, which fell 5%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这可能反映出火热的市场正在降温。Zillow排队的卖家可能比买家多得多。虽然长期需求趋势预计是积极的，但由于该国缺少数百万套住房，短期可能会变得坎坷。在宣布这一消息的两天前，Redfin报告称，房屋销量下降了9%，新挂牌量下降了5%。</blockquote></p><p> Other reasons for the pause, included macroeconomic issues that many businesses are currently facing. These include supply and labor shortages that have extended the process of reselling a home.</p><p><blockquote>暂停的其他原因包括许多企业目前面临的宏观经济问题。其中包括延长转售房屋过程的供应和劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p>   We're operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces...    \"Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory,\"    Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow CEO, in a statement.  Because of this, higher costs of renovations could significantly tighten margins. In fact, more than half of the homes recently purchased may be under water, as I will discuss below.</p><p><blockquote>我们在竞争激烈的房地产市场中，在劳动力和供应受限的经济中运营，尤其是在建筑、翻新和封闭空间方面...Zillow首席执行官杰里米·瓦克斯曼(Jeremy Wacksman)在一份声明中表示：“暂停新合同将使我们能够专注于已与我们签订合同的卖家以及我们当前的房屋库存。”因此，更高的装修成本可能会显着收紧利润。事实上，最近购买的房屋中有一半以上可能被水淹没，我将在下面讨论。</blockquote></p><p> Home prices had been on fire for the first half of this year when Zillow was a buyer. Now that the market is taking a breather, these homes are waiting for buyers and the prices are coming down. This is a serious risk that every iBuying company will face. And the risk is structural. Shown below, prices have inched down ever so slightly from the red-hot summer months. It is worrisome that Zillow has purchased in the summer, while prices were highest, and is now selling in the fall when the kids are back in school and the market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>今年上半年，当Zillow成为买家时，房价一直在飙升。现在市场正在喘口气，这些房子正在等待买家，价格正在下降。这是每个iBuying公司都会面临的严重风险。风险是结构性的。如下图所示，价格比炎热的夏季略有下降。令人担忧的是，Zillow在价格最高的夏季购买了Zillow，现在在秋季孩子们返校、市场放缓时出售。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e59a7c8a0c8cf3531ea1972a7a8fd3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股价</b></blockquote></p><p> This news caused nervous investors to accelerate the downtrend in the stock, fearing a structural difficulty that could linger. The stock fell nearly 10% total in the days around the announcement.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息导致紧张的投资者加速了该股的下跌趋势，担心结构性困难可能会持续存在。公告发布前后几天，该股累计下跌近10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a78debfc71d8aac0b2eaeaf304fe5eb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, cooler heads prevailed and the stock recovered somewhat thanks to a bullish hedge fund call which I discuss below. It is still stuck in a persistent downward trend since earlier this year, as shown below in the YTD chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，冷静的头脑占了上风，由于看涨的对冲基金看涨期权，该股有所回升，我将在下面讨论。自今年早些时候以来，它仍陷入持续下降趋势，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab979080dfdee8a0875705807f5c89b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One positive note for the stock is the interest from hedge fund manager Gil Simon of SoMa Equity Partners who recommended the stock and sees a&nbsp;\"compelling\" long-term opportunity. As the stock price has been cut in half since February 2021 it is difficult not to see it as oversold. Especially as certain metrics begin to resemble those from before the pandemic. This bullish call was made after the \"pause\" announcement, but before the \"wind down\" announcement.</p><p><blockquote>该股的一个积极因素是SoMa Equity Partners对冲基金经理吉尔·西蒙(Gil Simon)的兴趣，他推荐了该股，并看到了“令人信服的”长期机会。由于股价自2021年2月以来已腰斩，很难不将其视为超卖。尤其是当某些指标开始类似于大流行之前的指标时。这个看涨的看涨期权是在“暂停”公告之后，但在“结束”公告之前做出的。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, not all analysts were or are bullish. Bank of America&nbsp;cut its price target&nbsp;from $100 to $85 on October 28, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，并非所有分析师过去或现在都看涨。美国银行于2021年10月28日将其目标价从100美元下调至85美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to start out November on a sour note, a KeyBanc analyst pointed to a&nbsp;study done by the firm that shows well over half the home&nbsp;scurrently listed are selling for<i>less</i>than the purchase price. This led to another selloff of more than 10% to open the month of November, pictured below. This looked to confirm some of the worst fears when the pause was implemented.</p><p><blockquote>然后，KeyBanc的一位分析师指出，该公司进行的一项研究显示，目前上市的房屋中有一半以上的售价为<i>低于</i>比购买价格。这导致11月份开盘再次出现超过10%的抛售，如下图所示。这似乎证实了暂停实施时一些最严重的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/859acfe9ed5bc2583e62ed965984227f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 results are almost an afterthought at this point. There are some positives in the release, however. The IMT segment posted impressive revenue and EBITDA figures. The segment has grown revenues at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 15% since 2018, or 52% total. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment has grown at a CAGR over 50% during this time and reached $836M for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This will be the key to success moving forward. Zillow also has the opportunity to focus on profitability moving forward rather than growth at any cost. The IMT segment is generally profitable, while the homebuying segment has been unprofitable historically. Mortgages have profit potential as well, having posted positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2021, albeit only $5M. It remains to be seen exactly how Zillow will move forward, but a focus on becoming cash-flow and EBITDA positive overall and the core business would be wise.</p><p><blockquote>此时，第三季度的业绩几乎是事后才想到的。然而，这个版本也有一些积极的方面。IMT部门公布了令人印象深刻的收入和EBITDA数据。自2018年以来，该部门的收入复合年增长率(CAGR)超过15%，占总收入的52%。在此期间，该部门的调整后EBITDA复合年增长率超过50%，截至2021年9月30日的过去12个月达到8.36亿美元。这将是成功前进的关键。Zillow还有机会专注于未来的盈利能力，而不是不惜一切代价实现增长。IMT部门总体上是盈利的，而购房部门历来是无利可图的。抵押贷款也有盈利潜力，2021年第三季度调整后EBITDA为正，尽管只有500万美元。Zillow将如何前进还有待观察，但专注于整体现金流和EBITDA以及核心业务将是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Zillow Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts have a gigantic spread in opinion on Zillow. Some have price targets at $145 while others have cut to just $85. The average target, according to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha's Wall St. Rating center&nbsp;is $98.50. There is much uncertainty after the announcement of the wind-down and we will likely see&nbsp;significant adjustments downward&nbsp;in the next several days.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对Zillow的看法存在巨大差异。一些公司的目标价为145美元，而另一些公司则将目标价降至85美元。根据Seeking Alpha华尔街评级中心的数据，平均目标为98.50美元。宣布结束后存在很大的不确定性，我们可能会在未来几天看到大幅向下调整。</blockquote></p><p> This uncertainty may bring about an opportunity to invest while the stock is heavily beaten down, but the best opportunity is likely not today. There is a real danger that there is more bad news to come. The stock will also need to be rerated by analysts and the news digested by Wall Street. At this time Zillow is far too risky to initiate a position.</p><p><blockquote>这种不确定性可能会在该股遭受重创时带来投资机会，但最好的机会可能不是今天。确实存在更多坏消息即将到来的危险。该股还需要由分析师重新评级，华尔街也需要消化这一消息。目前，Zillow的风险太大，无法建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow Stops Homebuying: How Will This Impact Their Stock Forecast?<blockquote>Zillow停止购房：这将如何影响他们的股票预测？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow Stops Homebuying: How Will This Impact Their Stock Forecast?<blockquote>Zillow停止购房：这将如何影响他们的股票预测？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Zillow had paused, and now will completely wind down, home buying with the division terminating over the next few quarters.</li>  <li>There is evidence of a slowing housing market and Zillow is reportedly offloading homes below cost and will take a significant asset write-down.</li>  <li>Zillow's stock has been in a downward cycle since February of this year, and this shows no signs of slowing.</li>  <li>The IMT segment posted positive Q3 results, which were obviously overshadowed by the news above.</li>  <li>How do these moving parts impact the company's prospects?</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db785603fd1fe96aa3ee17c4196b74dd\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Xacto/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Zillow已经暂停，现在将完全停止购房，该部门将在未来几个季度内终止。</li><li>有证据表明房地产市场正在放缓，据报道，Zillow正在以低于成本的价格出售房屋，并将进行大幅资产减记。</li><li>自今年2月以来，Zillow的股价一直处于下行周期，而且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>IMT部门公布了积极的第三季度业绩，这显然被上述消息所掩盖。</li><li>这些活动部件如何影响公司的前景？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Xacto/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Did Zillow Stop Home Buying?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow为什么停止购房？</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) is a digital real estate company which operates in three divisions. First, it operates its Internet, Media, and Technology (IMT) segment which produces revenue through Premier Agent or advertising revenues from agents. Second, the mortgage segment makes money by performing loan originations and reselling mortgages. The third segment, and largest segment by revenue, is the Homes segment, commonly known as Zillow Offers. In this segment the company purchases, fixes, and resells residential real estate. Zillow announced it&nbsp;will be winding this segment down completely&nbsp;during their Q3 earnings release. The wind-down includes an asset write-down of over $300M as well.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow Group，Inc.（Z）是一家数字房地产公司，分为三个部门。首先，它运营互联网、媒体和技术（IMT）部门，该部门通过Premier Agent或代理商的广告收入产生收入。其次，抵押贷款部门通过发放贷款和转售抵押贷款来赚钱。第三个细分市场，也是收入最大的细分市场，是住宅细分市场，通常称为Zillow Offers。在这一部分，该公司购买、修理和转售住宅房地产。Zillow宣布将在第三季度财报发布期间完全关闭该细分市场。此次缩减还包括超过3亿美元的资产减记。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, how did we get here?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，我们是怎么到这里的？</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-October, Zillow paused this segment through at least the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>10月中旬，Zillow暂停了这一细分市场，至少到2021年底。</blockquote></p><p>   We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time...\"    Company Spokesman per Seeking Alpha, courtesy Bloomberg.  This news had both positive and negative elements. First, on the positive side, it is obvious that the iBuying program is immensely popular. Zillow reported&nbsp;that 1% of homes in Q2 2021&nbsp;used some type of iBuying program. This may not seem significant at just 1%, however considering the United States home sales market is&nbsp;expected to reach $2.5&nbsp;<i>trillion</i>&nbsp;in 2021, this is a very big number indeed. I also considered it positive that Zillow recognized that they were becoming overextended and paused, rather than risking serious systemic issues that would hurt customers and damage their reputation.</p><p><blockquote>我们的Zillow Offers业务超出了运营能力，目前不会签订额外的购房合同……”Seeking Alpha的公司发言人，由彭博社提供。这个消息既有积极的因素，也有消极的因素。首先，从积极的一面来看，iBuying计划显然非常受欢迎。Zillow报告称，2021年第二季度有1%的家庭使用某种类型的iBuying计划。这可能看起来并不重要，只有1%，但考虑到美国房屋销售市场预计将达到2.5美元<i>万亿</i>2021年，这确实是一个非常大的数字。我还认为，Zillow认识到他们正在变得过度扩张和暂停，而不是冒着严重的系统性问题的风险，这是积极的，这些问题会伤害客户并损害他们的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> This has clear implications for competitors like Redfin (RDFN) and Opendoor (OPEN) to accumulate market share. The iBuying process is popular, but it must be managed correctly. I have seen no indication that they will cease their programs.</p><p><blockquote>这对于Redfin(RDFN)和Opendoor(OPEN)等竞争对手积累市场份额具有明显的影响。iBuying流程很受欢迎，但必须正确管理。我没有看到他们会停止他们的项目的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Further, this could be a reflection that the red-hot market is cooling. Zillow may have many more sellers in line than buyers. While the secular demand trends are expected to be positive, as&nbsp;the country is short millions of homes, the short-term could get bumpy. Two days prior to this announcement, Redfin&nbsp;reported a drop in both homes sales, which dropped 9%, and new listings, which fell 5%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这可能反映出火热的市场正在降温。Zillow排队的卖家可能比买家多得多。虽然长期需求趋势预计是积极的，但由于该国缺少数百万套住房，短期可能会变得坎坷。在宣布这一消息的两天前，Redfin报告称，房屋销量下降了9%，新挂牌量下降了5%。</blockquote></p><p> Other reasons for the pause, included macroeconomic issues that many businesses are currently facing. These include supply and labor shortages that have extended the process of reselling a home.</p><p><blockquote>暂停的其他原因包括许多企业目前面临的宏观经济问题。其中包括延长转售房屋过程的供应和劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p>   We're operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces...    \"Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory,\"    Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow CEO, in a statement.  Because of this, higher costs of renovations could significantly tighten margins. In fact, more than half of the homes recently purchased may be under water, as I will discuss below.</p><p><blockquote>我们在竞争激烈的房地产市场中，在劳动力和供应受限的经济中运营，尤其是在建筑、翻新和封闭空间方面...Zillow首席执行官杰里米·瓦克斯曼(Jeremy Wacksman)在一份声明中表示：“暂停新合同将使我们能够专注于已与我们签订合同的卖家以及我们当前的房屋库存。”因此，更高的装修成本可能会显着收紧利润。事实上，最近购买的房屋中有一半以上可能被水淹没，我将在下面讨论。</blockquote></p><p> Home prices had been on fire for the first half of this year when Zillow was a buyer. Now that the market is taking a breather, these homes are waiting for buyers and the prices are coming down. This is a serious risk that every iBuying company will face. And the risk is structural. Shown below, prices have inched down ever so slightly from the red-hot summer months. It is worrisome that Zillow has purchased in the summer, while prices were highest, and is now selling in the fall when the kids are back in school and the market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>今年上半年，当Zillow成为买家时，房价一直在飙升。现在市场正在喘口气，这些房子正在等待买家，价格正在下降。这是每个iBuying公司都会面临的严重风险。风险是结构性的。如下图所示，价格比炎热的夏季略有下降。令人担忧的是，Zillow在价格最高的夏季购买了Zillow，现在在秋季孩子们返校、市场放缓时出售。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e59a7c8a0c8cf3531ea1972a7a8fd3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股价</b></blockquote></p><p> This news caused nervous investors to accelerate the downtrend in the stock, fearing a structural difficulty that could linger. The stock fell nearly 10% total in the days around the announcement.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息导致紧张的投资者加速了该股的下跌趋势，担心结构性困难可能会持续存在。公告发布前后几天，该股累计下跌近10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a78debfc71d8aac0b2eaeaf304fe5eb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, cooler heads prevailed and the stock recovered somewhat thanks to a bullish hedge fund call which I discuss below. It is still stuck in a persistent downward trend since earlier this year, as shown below in the YTD chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，冷静的头脑占了上风，由于看涨的对冲基金看涨期权，该股有所回升，我将在下面讨论。自今年早些时候以来，它仍陷入持续下降趋势，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab979080dfdee8a0875705807f5c89b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One positive note for the stock is the interest from hedge fund manager Gil Simon of SoMa Equity Partners who recommended the stock and sees a&nbsp;\"compelling\" long-term opportunity. As the stock price has been cut in half since February 2021 it is difficult not to see it as oversold. Especially as certain metrics begin to resemble those from before the pandemic. This bullish call was made after the \"pause\" announcement, but before the \"wind down\" announcement.</p><p><blockquote>该股的一个积极因素是SoMa Equity Partners对冲基金经理吉尔·西蒙(Gil Simon)的兴趣，他推荐了该股，并看到了“令人信服的”长期机会。由于股价自2021年2月以来已腰斩，很难不将其视为超卖。尤其是当某些指标开始类似于大流行之前的指标时。这个看涨的看涨期权是在“暂停”公告之后，但在“结束”公告之前做出的。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, not all analysts were or are bullish. Bank of America&nbsp;cut its price target&nbsp;from $100 to $85 on October 28, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，并非所有分析师过去或现在都看涨。美国银行于2021年10月28日将其目标价从100美元下调至85美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to start out November on a sour note, a KeyBanc analyst pointed to a&nbsp;study done by the firm that shows well over half the home&nbsp;scurrently listed are selling for<i>less</i>than the purchase price. This led to another selloff of more than 10% to open the month of November, pictured below. This looked to confirm some of the worst fears when the pause was implemented.</p><p><blockquote>然后，KeyBanc的一位分析师指出，该公司进行的一项研究显示，目前上市的房屋中有一半以上的售价为<i>低于</i>比购买价格。这导致11月份开盘再次出现超过10%的抛售，如下图所示。这似乎证实了暂停实施时一些最严重的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/859acfe9ed5bc2583e62ed965984227f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zillow Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 results are almost an afterthought at this point. There are some positives in the release, however. The IMT segment posted impressive revenue and EBITDA figures. The segment has grown revenues at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 15% since 2018, or 52% total. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment has grown at a CAGR over 50% during this time and reached $836M for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This will be the key to success moving forward. Zillow also has the opportunity to focus on profitability moving forward rather than growth at any cost. The IMT segment is generally profitable, while the homebuying segment has been unprofitable historically. Mortgages have profit potential as well, having posted positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2021, albeit only $5M. It remains to be seen exactly how Zillow will move forward, but a focus on becoming cash-flow and EBITDA positive overall and the core business would be wise.</p><p><blockquote>此时，第三季度的业绩几乎是事后才想到的。然而，这个版本也有一些积极的方面。IMT部门公布了令人印象深刻的收入和EBITDA数据。自2018年以来，该部门的收入复合年增长率(CAGR)超过15%，占总收入的52%。在此期间，该部门的调整后EBITDA复合年增长率超过50%，截至2021年9月30日的过去12个月达到8.36亿美元。这将是成功前进的关键。Zillow还有机会专注于未来的盈利能力，而不是不惜一切代价实现增长。IMT部门总体上是盈利的，而购房部门历来是无利可图的。抵押贷款也有盈利潜力，2021年第三季度调整后EBITDA为正，尽管只有500万美元。Zillow将如何前进还有待观察，但专注于整体现金流和EBITDA以及核心业务将是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Zillow Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zillow股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts have a gigantic spread in opinion on Zillow. Some have price targets at $145 while others have cut to just $85. The average target, according to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha's Wall St. Rating center&nbsp;is $98.50. There is much uncertainty after the announcement of the wind-down and we will likely see&nbsp;significant adjustments downward&nbsp;in the next several days.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对Zillow的看法存在巨大差异。一些公司的目标价为145美元，而另一些公司则将目标价降至85美元。根据Seeking Alpha华尔街评级中心的数据，平均目标为98.50美元。宣布结束后存在很大的不确定性，我们可能会在未来几天看到大幅向下调整。</blockquote></p><p> This uncertainty may bring about an opportunity to invest while the stock is heavily beaten down, but the best opportunity is likely not today. There is a real danger that there is more bad news to come. The stock will also need to be rerated by analysts and the news digested by Wall Street. At this time Zillow is far too risky to initiate a position.</p><p><blockquote>这种不确定性可能会在该股遭受重创时带来投资机会，但最好的机会可能不是今天。确实存在更多坏消息即将到来的危险。该股还需要由分析师重新评级，华尔街也需要消化这一消息。目前，Zillow的风险太大，无法建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464868-zilllow-stops-homebuying-stock-forecast\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow","ZG":"Zillow Class A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464868-zilllow-stops-homebuying-stock-forecast","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196366330","content_text":"Summary\n\nZillow had paused, and now will completely wind down, home buying with the division terminating over the next few quarters.\nThere is evidence of a slowing housing market and Zillow is reportedly offloading homes below cost and will take a significant asset write-down.\nZillow's stock has been in a downward cycle since February of this year, and this shows no signs of slowing.\nThe IMT segment posted positive Q3 results, which were obviously overshadowed by the news above.\nHow do these moving parts impact the company's prospects?\n\nXacto/E+ via Getty Images\nWhy Did Zillow Stop Home Buying?\nZillow Group, Inc. (Z) is a digital real estate company which operates in three divisions. First, it operates its Internet, Media, and Technology (IMT) segment which produces revenue through Premier Agent or advertising revenues from agents. Second, the mortgage segment makes money by performing loan originations and reselling mortgages. The third segment, and largest segment by revenue, is the Homes segment, commonly known as Zillow Offers. In this segment the company purchases, fixes, and resells residential real estate. Zillow announced it will be winding this segment down completely during their Q3 earnings release. The wind-down includes an asset write-down of over $300M as well.\nSo, how did we get here?\nIn mid-October, Zillow paused this segment through at least the end of 2021.\n\n We are beyond operational capacity in our Zillow Offers business and are not taking on additional contracts to purchase homes at this time...\"\n\n\n Company Spokesman per Seeking Alpha, courtesy Bloomberg.\n\nThis news had both positive and negative elements. First, on the positive side, it is obvious that the iBuying program is immensely popular. Zillow reported that 1% of homes in Q2 2021 used some type of iBuying program. This may not seem significant at just 1%, however considering the United States home sales market is expected to reach $2.5 trillion in 2021, this is a very big number indeed. I also considered it positive that Zillow recognized that they were becoming overextended and paused, rather than risking serious systemic issues that would hurt customers and damage their reputation.\nThis has clear implications for competitors like Redfin (RDFN) and Opendoor (OPEN) to accumulate market share. The iBuying process is popular, but it must be managed correctly. I have seen no indication that they will cease their programs.\nFurther, this could be a reflection that the red-hot market is cooling. Zillow may have many more sellers in line than buyers. While the secular demand trends are expected to be positive, as the country is short millions of homes, the short-term could get bumpy. Two days prior to this announcement, Redfin reported a drop in both homes sales, which dropped 9%, and new listings, which fell 5%.\nOther reasons for the pause, included macroeconomic issues that many businesses are currently facing. These include supply and labor shortages that have extended the process of reselling a home.\n\n We're operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces...\n\n\n \"Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory,\"\n\n\n Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow CEO, in a statement.\n\nBecause of this, higher costs of renovations could significantly tighten margins. In fact, more than half of the homes recently purchased may be under water, as I will discuss below.\nHome prices had been on fire for the first half of this year when Zillow was a buyer. Now that the market is taking a breather, these homes are waiting for buyers and the prices are coming down. This is a serious risk that every iBuying company will face. And the risk is structural. Shown below, prices have inched down ever so slightly from the red-hot summer months. It is worrisome that Zillow has purchased in the summer, while prices were highest, and is now selling in the fall when the kids are back in school and the market has slowed.\nData by YCharts\nZillow Stock Price\nThis news caused nervous investors to accelerate the downtrend in the stock, fearing a structural difficulty that could linger. The stock fell nearly 10% total in the days around the announcement.\nData by YCharts\nHowever, cooler heads prevailed and the stock recovered somewhat thanks to a bullish hedge fund call which I discuss below. It is still stuck in a persistent downward trend since earlier this year, as shown below in the YTD chart.\nData by YCharts\nOne positive note for the stock is the interest from hedge fund manager Gil Simon of SoMa Equity Partners who recommended the stock and sees a \"compelling\" long-term opportunity. As the stock price has been cut in half since February 2021 it is difficult not to see it as oversold. Especially as certain metrics begin to resemble those from before the pandemic. This bullish call was made after the \"pause\" announcement, but before the \"wind down\" announcement.\nAt the same time, not all analysts were or are bullish. Bank of America cut its price target from $100 to $85 on October 28, 2021.\nThen, to start out November on a sour note, a KeyBanc analyst pointed to a study done by the firm that shows well over half the home scurrently listed are selling forlessthan the purchase price. This led to another selloff of more than 10% to open the month of November, pictured below. This looked to confirm some of the worst fears when the pause was implemented.\nData by YCharts\nZillow Stock Forecast\nQ3 results are almost an afterthought at this point. There are some positives in the release, however. The IMT segment posted impressive revenue and EBITDA figures. The segment has grown revenues at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 15% since 2018, or 52% total. Adjusted EBITDA in this segment has grown at a CAGR over 50% during this time and reached $836M for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This will be the key to success moving forward. Zillow also has the opportunity to focus on profitability moving forward rather than growth at any cost. The IMT segment is generally profitable, while the homebuying segment has been unprofitable historically. Mortgages have profit potential as well, having posted positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2021, albeit only $5M. It remains to be seen exactly how Zillow will move forward, but a focus on becoming cash-flow and EBITDA positive overall and the core business would be wise.\nIs Zillow Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?\nAnalysts have a gigantic spread in opinion on Zillow. Some have price targets at $145 while others have cut to just $85. The average target, according to Seeking Alpha's Wall St. Rating center is $98.50. There is much uncertainty after the announcement of the wind-down and we will likely see significant adjustments downward in the next several days.\nThis uncertainty may bring about an opportunity to invest while the stock is heavily beaten down, but the best opportunity is likely not today. There is a real danger that there is more bad news to come. The stock will also need to be rerated by analysts and the news digested by Wall Street. At this time Zillow is far too risky to initiate a position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9,"ZG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886482382,"gmtCreate":1631616634646,"gmtModify":1631888693436,"author":{"id":"3562581214716129","authorId":"3562581214716129","name":"BlissNHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c8ae1247419aff13ee8033c4ac6c63","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562581214716129","authorIdStr":"3562581214716129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oppsie dope","listText":"Oppsie dope","text":"Oppsie dope","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886482382","repostId":"2167630550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}