comment_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-11-22

comment

Peloton: A Few Bad Quarters Don't Make It A Bad Investment<blockquote>Peloton：几个糟糕的季度并不意味着它是一项糟糕的投资</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":872467439,"tweetId":"872467439","gmtCreate":1637562517041,"gmtModify":1637562517041,"author":{"id":4089432729587530,"idStr":"4089432729587530","authorId":4089432729587530,"authorIdStr":"4089432729587530","name":"MJ_NEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836cb0b3d682ca6ab11ac6e7ab499b78","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>comment</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>comment</body></html>","text":"comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872467439","repostId":1162603487,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162603487","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637561031,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162603487?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 14:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Peloton: A Few Bad Quarters Don't Make It A Bad Investment<blockquote>Peloton：几个糟糕的季度并不意味着它是一项糟糕的投资</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162603487","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPoor Q1 results and a massive guidance cut shocked investors that sent the stock down 30+%.","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Poor Q1 results and a massive guidance cut shocked investors that sent the stock down 30+%.</li> <li>While bears are celebrating, investors shouldn't be too quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.</li> <li>Management is delaying gratification to build an ecosystem for tomorrow.</li> <li>An insider has been buying Peloton during the meltdown. So am I.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406ba77444ee9b1c168d04c9cf5ec1ea\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">kali9/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>糟糕的第一季度业绩和大幅下调指引令投资者震惊，导致该股下跌30%以上。</li><li>虽然空头正在庆祝，但投资者不应太快忽视Peloton的增长潜力。</li><li>管理层正在推迟满足，以构建明天的生态系统。</li><li>一位内部人士在崩溃期间一直在购买Peloton。我也是。</li></ul>kali9/E+来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Peloton (PTON) reported disappointing back-to-back quarters. The most recent one was accompanied by a huge revenue guidance cut that lost many investors' confidence. Moreover, the reopening of the economy seemed to play a big role in Peloton's slowdown. Despite all these factors, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead and the company should rise from the ashes in the following few quarters. Although quite risky, the recent valuation drop makes Peloton a compelling buy.<blockquote>Peloton(PTON)连续两个季度的业绩令人失望。最近的一次是伴随着收入指引的大幅下调，这让许多投资者失去了信心。此外，经济的重新开放似乎在Peloton的放缓中发挥了重要作用。尽管存在所有这些因素，Peloton仍有很长的增长跑道，该公司应该会在接下来的几个季度内从灰烬中重生。尽管风险很大，但最近的估值下跌使Peloton成为引人注目的买入对象。</blockquote> Two Bad Quarters<blockquote>两个糟糕的季度</blockquote> Let’s cut to the chase. Peloton’s most recent quarter performance was abysmal. Many thought that Q4 2021 results were bad enough and that it wouldn’t get worse but guess what? It did get worse, significantly.<blockquote>让我们切入正题。Peloton最近一个季度的表现非常糟糕。许多人认为2021年第四季度的业绩已经够糟糕了，而且不会变得更糟，但你猜怎么着？情况确实变得更糟了，非常明显。</blockquote> Peloton ended Q1 with revenue of $805 million, just 6% higher from the year-ago quarter and down 14% sequentially, but in line with management’s guidance of $800 million. The slowdown in growth was primarily due to weakness in the Connected Fitness segment, posting a 17% YOY decline to $501 million as a result of fewer Bike deliveries, Bike price cut, and Tread recall. This figure also includes about $60 million of contribution from Precor. So excluding Precor, Connected Fitness revenue would have dropped by about 27%, YOY.<blockquote>Peloton第一季度末营收为8.05亿美元，仅比去年同期增长6%，环比下降14%，但符合管理层8亿美元的指导。增长放缓主要是由于互联健身领域的疲软，由于自行车交付量减少、自行车降价和胎面召回，该领域同比下降17%至5.01亿美元。这一数字还包括Precor约6000万美元的捐款。因此，排除Precor，互联健身收入将同比下降约27%。</blockquote> On the bright side, subscription revenue growth remained strong, growing 94% YOY to $304 million, driven by an 87% increase in Connected Fitness subscriptions to 2.49 million and a 74% increase in digital subscriptions to 887,000, amassing 6.2 million total members globally. However, monthly churn rate ticked up slightly to 0.82% from the prior quarter’s 0.73%, and both total platform workouts and Average Monthly Workouts per Subscription continued their downtrend, signaling a gradual shift from in-home fitness to gyms.<blockquote>好的一面是，订阅收入增长依然强劲，同比增长94%至3.04亿美元，这得益于互联健身订阅增长87%至249万，数字订阅增长74%至887,000，全球会员总数达到620万。然而，每月流失率从上一季度的0.73%小幅上升至0.82%，平台锻炼总量和每次订阅的平均每月锻炼量均继续呈下降趋势，表明人们逐渐从家庭健身转向健身房。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298f1830578fdbceb2f7e0732b94b1d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter<blockquote>资料来源：Peloton 2022年第一季度股东信</blockquote> Seeing Peloton maintain high subscription revenue growth is encouraging as it means that Peloton can rely on stable cash flow while its Connected Fitness segment continues to experience volatility in terms of operating results. Subscription revenue is also the high-margin segment of the Peloton business model. Overall gross margin was 32.6% for Q1 2022. Again, in line with management’s expectations. Product gross margin was 12.0%, as expected given the Bike price reduction, supply chain constraints, and impact from the Tread recall. Subscription gross margin was 66.7%, up 820 basis points.<blockquote>看到Peloton保持高订阅收入增长令人鼓舞，因为这意味着Peloton可以依靠稳定的现金流，而其互联健身部门的经营业绩继续出现波动。订阅收入也是Peloton商业模式的高利润部分。2022年第一季度的整体毛利率为32.6%。再次，符合管理层的预期。考虑到自行车降价、供应链限制以及胎面召回的影响，产品毛利率为12.0%，符合预期。订阅毛利率为66.7%，上升820个基点。</blockquote> Q1 Adjusted EBITDA was $(233.7) million. This was the result of revenue growing at only 6% while operating expenses continued to grow at a triple-digit rate. However, it is important to note that the reported Adjusted EBITDA was way less than the $(285) million guided in Q4 2021. Nonetheless, it’s still a considerable cash burn given the size of the company.<blockquote>第一季度调整后EBITDA为(2.337亿)美元。这是由于收入仅增长6%，而运营费用继续以三位数的速度增长。然而，值得注意的是，报告的调整后EBITDA远低于2021年第四季度指导的2.85亿美元。尽管如此，考虑到公司的规模，这仍然是相当大的现金消耗。</blockquote> Peloton ended Q1 with $924 million in cash and cash equivalents, about $600+ million lower than the prior quarter. You can see why Peloton’s balance sheet health scared investors despite its CFO reassuring any liquidity concerns during the&nbsp;earnings call:<blockquote>Peloton第一季度末的现金和现金等价物为9.24亿美元，比上一季度减少约6亿多美元。您可以理解为什么Peloton的资产负债表健康状况令投资者感到害怕，尽管其首席财务官在收益看涨期权期间安抚了任何流动性担忧：</blockquote> I think just cutting to the chase, we don't see the need for any additional capital raise based on our current outlook.As we mentioned, we're taking significant steps to adjust our expenses across COGS and opex with this revised revenue guidance, then we have a lot of levers to pull. In addition, what we're also going to do is reevaluate the cadence of some of the capital investments that we're making, inclusive of POP. And while we know that POP is a decades-long, right-term strategic move for us, there's definitely ways for us to find ways to make that a more economical spend over the next couple of years. (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call Transcript) (“POP” refers to&nbsp;Peloton Output Park, Peloton’s goal of building its first US factory.)<blockquote>我想开门见山，根据我们目前的前景，我们认为没有必要筹集任何额外的资金。正如我们提到的，我们正在采取重大措施，通过修订后的收入指引来调整销货成本和运营支出，那么我们就有很多杠杆可以利用。此外，我们还将重新评估我们正在进行的一些资本投资的节奏，包括POP。虽然我们知道POP对我们来说是一项长达数十年的正确战略举措，但我们肯定有办法在未来几年内找到更经济的支出。（来源：Peloton 2022年第一季度收益看涨期权成绩单）（“POP”指的是Peloton Output Park，Peloton建立第一家美国工厂的目标。）</blockquote> A few weeks later, Peloton announced an&nbsp;equity offering&nbsp;of 23,913,043 shares of common stock at $46 per share, totaling $1.07 billion. This dilutes shareholders and makes management looks like liars.<blockquote>几周后，Peloton宣布以每股46美元的价格发行23,913,043股普通股，总计10.7亿美元。这稀释了股东，让管理层看起来像骗子。</blockquote> It gets worse from here. Management revised down its prior full-year guidance. The introduction of ranges in its guidance also means that there’s a lack of confidence on management’s part, as well as a great deal of uncertainty for Peloton as the economy reopens.<blockquote>从这里开始变得更糟。管理层下调了之前的全年指引。在其指导中引入范围也意味着管理层缺乏信心，以及随着经济重新开放，Peloton面临很大的不确定性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bc51c3fe742542b143eedeb5b53a160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Peloton Q4 2021 Shareholder Letter, Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter, and Author’s Figure<blockquote>资料来源：Peloton 2021年第四季度股东信、Peloton 2022年第一季度股东信和作者图</blockquote> Despite all the doom and gloom, I believe the worst is behind Peloton - the Tread has been successfully recalled and the updated guidance has been issued. FY 2022 will be a challenging year for Peloton due to tough YOY comps, people returning to the office, and gyms reopening. Peloton should return to growth mode soon as management continued to pile cash on R&amp;D ($97.7 million in Q1) and CapEx ($87.2 million in Q1). I’m not going to sugarcoat, it’s been a terrible few quarters, and there were some head-scratching moments like the Bike price cut as well as its recent equity raise. But a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment.<blockquote>尽管困难重重，但我相信Peloton最糟糕的情况已经过去——胎面已成功召回，更新的指南也已发布。由于同比业绩严峻、人们返回办公室以及健身房重新开放，2022财年对Peloton来说将是充满挑战的一年。随着管理层继续在研发（第一季度为9770万美元）和资本支出（第一季度为8720万美元）上投入现金，Peloton应该很快就会恢复增长模式。我不想粉饰，这几个季度过得很糟糕，也有一些令人挠头的时刻，比如自行车降价以及最近的股权融资。但几个糟糕的季度并不会让Peloton成为一项糟糕的投资。</blockquote> Building An Ecosystem<blockquote>构建生态系统</blockquote> The bear thesis has always been \"the economy is reopening, people are returning to the gym, people want to socialize, working out at home is boring, Peloton is too expensive, Peloton is overhyped” yada, yada, yada. Consequently, negative news and poor results from the prior quarters make the bears sound smart. Furthermore, the stock price tanked to new 52-week lows. As such, sentiment on the company has been nothing but fear written all over, and therefore, it’s so easy for investors to dismiss Peloton’s bull case during these times.<blockquote>空头的论点一直是“经济正在重新开放，人们正在重返健身房，人们想要社交，在家锻炼很无聊，Peloton太贵，Peloton被过度炒作”等等，等等，等等。因此，前几个季度的负面消息和糟糕的业绩让空头听起来很聪明。此外，股价跌至52周新低。因此，人们对该公司的情绪充满了恐惧，因此，投资者在此期间很容易忽视Peloton的牛市。</blockquote> In the next few paragraphs, I’d like to remind readers of Peloton’s bull thesis and why its growth story remains intact, despite short-term road bumps.<blockquote>在接下来的几段中，我想提醒读者Peloton的牛市论点，以及为什么尽管短期道路坎坷，但其增长故事仍然完好无损。</blockquote> The Peloton Cult- Despite revenues only increasing 6% YOY, Connected Fitness subscriptions grew 87% YOY to 2.49 million with only 0.82% monthly churn, despite tough comps. I do not focus so much on revenue now since Peloton’s priority is to land as many members as possible, which is the sole reason why management made the price cut on the Peloton Bike - building a larger cult is what Peloton is striving for. In essence, Peloton is delaying gratification so it can reap the benefits of a network effect moat tomorrow by leveraging the strong brand moat it possesses today.<blockquote>Peloton邪教-尽管收入同比仅增长6%，但互联健身订阅量同比增长87%至249万份，尽管竞争激烈，每月流失率仅为0.82%。我现在不太关注收入，因为Peloton的首要任务是获得尽可能多的会员，这是管理层降低Peloton自行车价格的唯一原因——建立更大的狂热是Peloton正在努力的目标。从本质上讲，Peloton正在推迟满足，以便明天可以通过利用今天拥有的强大品牌护城河来获得网络效应护城河的好处。</blockquote> Operational Expansion- Speaking of network effects, Peloton has yet to establish a strong international market presence. In FY 2021, international revenue only makes up 7% of total revenue. The acquisition of Precor is highly strategic as the legacy manufacturer has a large presence in international markets. Such an acquisition should be beneficial for Peloton to enter into new markets. At the same time, the acquisition of Precor grants Peloton access to Precor's connections with commercial gyms. Management also has desires to expand commercially into hotels, universities, corporate campuses, and apartment buildings. Here's what Peloton President William Lynch said about what it means for Peloton if they expand commercially:<blockquote>运营扩张-说到网络效应，Peloton尚未建立强大的国际市场影响力。2021财年，国际收入仅占总收入的7%。收购Precor具有高度战略意义，因为这家传统制造商在国际市场上拥有大量业务。这样的收购应该有利于Peloton进入新市场。与此同时，收购Precor使Peloton能够利用Precor与商业健身房的联系。管理层还希望将商业扩展到酒店、大学、企业园区和公寓楼。以下是Peloton总裁William Lynch对Peloton商业扩张意味着什么的评价：</blockquote> And then, also, that channel not only is a good business for us as it reemerges, it's also an incredible lead generation channel. Just an example of that is in hospitality, when we have a Peloton bike in a hotel for a year. It sells, on average, seven bikes into the home, and that talks to the quality of the experience that it offers. When a traveler goes into a Westin and gets on their Peloton in the morning and tries it using our trial, we get that lead capture. And we know, given the strength of the experience, they come home, and they buy Peloton. And so, it's not only a business that we think has a lot of, financially, has a lot of upside going forward given the catalog. Not only have they been helpful on the manufacturing side, it's very strategic for our at-home business as a trial channel, certainly in hospitality, but also when you think about universities and other verticals. (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call) New Product Lines- Here's an impressive statistic, Peloton was able to capture 2.49 million Connected Fitness subscribers with only two types of product: Bike and Tread. Imagine how many more members will join the cult when Peloton introduces new products like rowing machines, elliptical machines, or even punching bags. Just recently, Peloton launched the&nbsp;Peloton Guide, an “AI-enabled device easily connects to televisions, providing Members instant access to a suite of expert Instructors and the well-loved Peloton content library.” Among its features is a Movement Tracker, powered by smart camera technology and machine learning. A small step into the Metaverse perhaps? Nevertheless, management has been pouring money into R&amp;D and I expect management to introduce more innovations in the near future.<blockquote>而且，当该渠道重新出现时，它不仅对我们来说是一项好业务，而且也是一项令人难以置信的销售线索生成渠道.这方面的一个例子是在酒店，当我们在酒店里有一辆Peloton自行车一年。它平均向家庭销售七辆自行车，这说明了它提供的体验质量。当一个旅行者走进威斯汀酒店，在早上坐上他们的Peloton，使用我们的试用版进行试用时，我们会得到线索捕获。我们知道，鉴于这种体验的力量，他们回家后会购买Peloton。因此，考虑到目录，我们认为这不仅是一项在财务上有很大进步的业务。它们不仅对制造方面有帮助，而且对于我们的家庭业务来说也非常具有战略意义试用频道当然是在酒店业，但当你想到大学和其他垂直行业时也是如此。（来源：Peloton 2022年第一季度看涨期权收益）新产品线–这是一个令人印象深刻的统计数据，Peloton仅使用两种类型的产品（Bike和Tread）就吸引了249万联网健身订阅者。想象一下，当Peloton推出划船机、椭圆机甚至沙袋等新产品时，会有多少成员加入这个邪教。就在最近，Peloton推出了Peloton Guide，这是一款“支持人工智能的设备，可以轻松连接到电视，为会员提供一套专家讲师和深受喜爱的Peloton内容库。”它的功能之一是一个运动跟踪器，由智能相机技术和机器学习提供支持。也许是进入元宇宙的一小步？尽管如此，管理层一直在向研发投入资金，我预计管理层将在不久的将来推出更多创新。</blockquote> Fitness Streaming Giant- Peloton offers unmatched workout content led by 45+ world-class instructors across 10+ different workout categories, enhanced with interactive music from world-renowned artists. The Peloton app boasts a 4.9 rating with 580,000+, more than twice its biggest competitor, Beachbody (BODY). Peloton is without any doubt, the largest premium fitness streaming platform in the world. Its stellar reputation in content creation opens the doors for collaboration with other streaming giants such as Spotify (SPOT), Apple (AAPL), Roku (ROKU), and Netflix (NFLX). With its valuation cut to about $16 billion at the time of this writing, Peloton may also be an attractive acquisition target for Apple, a complement to Apple Fitness+.<blockquote>健身流媒体巨头-Peloton提供无与伦比的健身内容，由45名以上世界级教练带领，涵盖10多个不同的健身类别，并辅以世界知名艺术家的互动音乐。Peloton应用程序以580,000+的评分为4.9，是其最大竞争对手Beachbody（身体）的两倍多。毫无疑问，Peloton是世界上最大的优质健身流媒体平台。其在内容创作方面的卓越声誉为与Spotify(SPOT)、苹果(AAPL)、Roku(Roku)和Netflix(NFLX)等其他流媒体巨头的合作打开了大门。在撰写本文时，Peloton的估值已降至约160亿美元，对于苹果来说，它也可能是一个有吸引力的收购目标，是苹果健身+的补充。</blockquote> In addition, Peloton’s powerful streaming platform may also be an excellent medium for sports federations to conduct global online events. For example, holding a marathon race using the Tread or an online bicycle race with the Peloton Bikes. This allows people from all over the world to compete with one another in the comfort of their homes.<blockquote>此外，Peloton强大的流媒体平台也可能成为体育联合会开展全球线上赛事的绝佳媒介。例如，使用胎面举行马拉松比赛或使用Peloton自行车举行在线自行车比赛。这使得来自世界各地的人们可以在舒适的家中相互竞争。</blockquote> Selling Ads- Here's another common bear thesis: “Peloton is just an iPad attached to a Bike.” Well, Peloton can one day use those screens to run ads, as a way to diversify its revenue stream. For example, Ads can hover over the screen or be spoken out by the instructors during mid-workout breaks. Another way would be for Peloton to switch to a freemium model where one subscription price includes ads and limited content access, while the other is ad-free with unlimited access.<blockquote>销售广告——这是另一个常见的熊论点：“Peloton只是一个连接在自行车上的iPad。”好吧，Peloton有一天可以使用这些屏幕来投放广告，作为实现收入来源多元化的一种方式。例如，广告可以悬停在屏幕上，或者由教练在锻炼中途休息时说出。另一种方法是Peloton转向免费增值模式，其中一种订阅价格包括广告和有限的内容访问，而另一种是无广告且无限访问。</blockquote> These are just some of the things Peloton can do to continue to grow as a company so claiming that Peloton is dead in the water is clearly false. Again, the past few quarters have been terrible. But Peloton’s first-mover advantage and market leadership give the company the opportunity to grow further as outlined above. Its cult-like following, expanding network of members, innovative products, industry-leading content, and new revenue opportunity are signs of an emerging Peloton ecosystem.<blockquote>这些只是Peloton作为一家公司继续发展所能做的一些事情，因此声称Peloton已经死在水里显然是错误的。再说一次，过去几个季度的情况很糟糕。但Peloton的先发优势和市场领导地位使该公司有机会进一步发展，如上所述。其狂热的追随者、不断扩大的会员网络、创新的产品、行业领先的内容和新的收入机会是新兴Peloton生态系统的标志。</blockquote> Investors shouldn't be so quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.<blockquote>投资者不应该这么快就忽视Peloton的增长潜力。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> In my first Peloton&nbsp;article, I mentioned:<blockquote>在我的第一篇Peloton文章中，我提到：</blockquote> While growth may slow down due to product recalls, negative publicity, and the reopening of the economy, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead. However, despite its bullish growth thesis, valuations and technicals seemed bearish at the moment. Sometimes, it pays to wait a little longer. (Source: Author’s article: Peloton: Growth Story Still Intact, But Valuations And Technicals Do Not Look Good) Wait a little longer I did.<blockquote>尽管由于产品召回、负面宣传和经济重新开放，增长可能会放缓，但Peloton仍有很长的增长跑道。然而，尽管其增长论点看涨，但估值和技术面目前似乎看跌。有时候，多等一会儿是值得的。（来源：作者文章：Peloton：增长故事仍然完好无损，但估值和技术面看起来不太好）再等一会儿我做到了。</blockquote> I argued that the stock was forming a head and shoulder pattern and that it will likely trend downwards to the $70 or $50 level. As we all know, the stock tanked following Q1 earnings, primarily due to the huge guidance cut. It gapped below the $70 support and is now hovering in the $50 support level where I initiated a starter position. The next major support level is $35.<blockquote>我认为该股正在形成头肩形态，并且可能会下跌至70美元或50美元的水平。众所周知，该股在第一季度财报公布后暴跌，主要是由于指引大幅下调。它跌破70美元支撑位，现在徘徊在50美元支撑位，我在那里建仓。下一个主要支撑位是35美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbc1cf30c6af00792eb4d10481a143e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote> At current prices, Peloton is trading at only 4.0x EV / LTM Revenue, close to its historical low of 3.7x. The problem with valuing Peloton is that it is currently unprofitable so we can only use revenue multiples to gauge its relative valuation - operating results are too volatile to make accurate assumptions in the DCF model. In my opinion, a 4.0x revenue multiple provides ample margin of safety for a growth stock (or turnaround stock for that matter).<blockquote>按目前价格计算，Peloton的交易价格仅为EV/LTM收入的4.0倍，接近3.7倍的历史低点。对Peloton进行估值的问题在于，它目前尚未盈利，因此我们只能使用收入倍数来衡量其相对估值——经营业绩波动太大，无法在DCF模型中做出准确的假设。在我看来，4.0倍的收入倍数为成长型股票（或扭亏为盈的股票）提供了充足的安全边际。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0de4fdd41764434a17e4e187765c7eb5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> It also helps to know that TCV bought more shares of PTON at $46 after initiating a position back in May 2021 at around $100. TCV is led by Jay Hoag, who is on the board of directors of Peloton.<blockquote>了解TCV在2021年5月以100美元左右的价格建仓后，以46美元的价格购买了更多PTON股票也很有帮助。TCV由Peloton董事会成员Jay Hoag领导。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1872e9e5e17fd189e431a2d6a25660cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Insider Monkey<blockquote>资料来源：内幕猴子</blockquote> While Peloton looks cheap on a historical basis, Peloton is still a high-risk bet due to headwinds from the reopening of the economy, the return to gyms, supply chain constraints, unprofitability, and unsustainable cash burn rates.<blockquote>虽然从历史角度来看，Peloton看起来很便宜，但由于经济重新开放、健身房回归、供应链限制、无利可图和不可持续的现金消耗率等不利因素，Peloton仍然是一个高风险的赌注。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Depending on which camp you belong to, Peloton may or may not be the most revolutionary company. But we can all agree that Peloton has a strong brand, best-in-class hardware, and industry-leading fitness content. However, a few bad quarters seemed to have spooked investors, especially regarding the company’s unprofitability and the recent guidance cut. The reopening of the economy is also threatening Peloton’s growth prospects.<blockquote>根据你属于哪个阵营，Peloton可能是也可能不是最具革命性的公司。但我们都同意Peloton拥有强大的品牌、一流的硬件和行业领先的健身内容。然而，几个糟糕的季度似乎吓坏了投资者，特别是关于该公司的无利可图和最近的指引下调。经济的重新开放也威胁着Peloton的增长前景。</blockquote> While discouraging, a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment. To me, Peloton’s network is growing day by day and it has the potential to scale further as new products, content, and regions are added. In addition, the recent equity raise also provided Peloton with ample liquidity to cover near-term cash burn. Couple that with cost savings initiatives, Peloton should be able to return to cash-flow-positive by next year. Finally, I believe the selloff is overdone. The stock could go even lower from here but current valuations already provide a decent margin of safety for investors. As such, I am Long PTON.<blockquote>虽然令人沮丧，但几个糟糕的季度并不会让Peloton成为一项糟糕的投资。对我来说，Peloton的网络日益增长，并且随着新产品、内容和地区的添加，它有进一步扩展的潜力。此外，最近的股权融资也为Peloton提供了充足的流动性来弥补近期的现金消耗。再加上成本节约举措，Peloton应该能够在明年恢复正现金流。最后，我认为抛售过度了。该股可能会进一步走低，但目前的估值已经为投资者提供了不错的安全边际。因此，我做多PTON。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Peloton: A Few Bad Quarters Don't Make It A Bad Investment<blockquote>Peloton：几个糟糕的季度并不意味着它是一项糟糕的投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPeloton: A Few Bad Quarters Don't Make It A Bad Investment<blockquote>Peloton：几个糟糕的季度并不意味着它是一项糟糕的投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 14:03\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Poor Q1 results and a massive guidance cut shocked investors that sent the stock down 30+%.</li> <li>While bears are celebrating, investors shouldn't be too quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.</li> <li>Management is delaying gratification to build an ecosystem for tomorrow.</li> <li>An insider has been buying Peloton during the meltdown. So am I.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406ba77444ee9b1c168d04c9cf5ec1ea\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">kali9/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>糟糕的第一季度业绩和大幅下调指引令投资者震惊，导致该股下跌30%以上。</li><li>虽然空头正在庆祝，但投资者不应太快忽视Peloton的增长潜力。</li><li>管理层正在推迟满足，以构建明天的生态系统。</li><li>一位内部人士在崩溃期间一直在购买Peloton。我也是。</li></ul>kali9/E+来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Peloton (PTON) reported disappointing back-to-back quarters. The most recent one was accompanied by a huge revenue guidance cut that lost many investors' confidence. Moreover, the reopening of the economy seemed to play a big role in Peloton's slowdown. Despite all these factors, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead and the company should rise from the ashes in the following few quarters. Although quite risky, the recent valuation drop makes Peloton a compelling buy.<blockquote>Peloton(PTON)连续两个季度的业绩令人失望。最近的一次是伴随着收入指引的大幅下调，这让许多投资者失去了信心。此外，经济的重新开放似乎在Peloton的放缓中发挥了重要作用。尽管存在所有这些因素，Peloton仍有很长的增长跑道，该公司应该会在接下来的几个季度内从灰烬中重生。尽管风险很大，但最近的估值下跌使Peloton成为引人注目的买入对象。</blockquote> Two Bad Quarters<blockquote>两个糟糕的季度</blockquote> Let’s cut to the chase. Peloton’s most recent quarter performance was abysmal. Many thought that Q4 2021 results were bad enough and that it wouldn’t get worse but guess what? It did get worse, significantly.<blockquote>让我们切入正题。Peloton最近一个季度的表现非常糟糕。许多人认为2021年第四季度的业绩已经够糟糕了，而且不会变得更糟，但你猜怎么着？情况确实变得更糟了，非常明显。</blockquote> Peloton ended Q1 with revenue of $805 million, just 6% higher from the year-ago quarter and down 14% sequentially, but in line with management’s guidance of $800 million. The slowdown in growth was primarily due to weakness in the Connected Fitness segment, posting a 17% YOY decline to $501 million as a result of fewer Bike deliveries, Bike price cut, and Tread recall. This figure also includes about $60 million of contribution from Precor. So excluding Precor, Connected Fitness revenue would have dropped by about 27%, YOY.<blockquote>Peloton第一季度末营收为8.05亿美元，仅比去年同期增长6%，环比下降14%，但符合管理层8亿美元的指导。增长放缓主要是由于互联健身领域的疲软，由于自行车交付量减少、自行车降价和胎面召回，该领域同比下降17%至5.01亿美元。这一数字还包括Precor约6000万美元的捐款。因此，排除Precor，互联健身收入将同比下降约27%。</blockquote> On the bright side, subscription revenue growth remained strong, growing 94% YOY to $304 million, driven by an 87% increase in Connected Fitness subscriptions to 2.49 million and a 74% increase in digital subscriptions to 887,000, amassing 6.2 million total members globally. However, monthly churn rate ticked up slightly to 0.82% from the prior quarter’s 0.73%, and both total platform workouts and Average Monthly Workouts per Subscription continued their downtrend, signaling a gradual shift from in-home fitness to gyms.<blockquote>好的一面是，订阅收入增长依然强劲，同比增长94%至3.04亿美元，这得益于互联健身订阅增长87%至249万，数字订阅增长74%至887,000，全球会员总数达到620万。然而，每月流失率从上一季度的0.73%小幅上升至0.82%，平台锻炼总量和每次订阅的平均每月锻炼量均继续呈下降趋势，表明人们逐渐从家庭健身转向健身房。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298f1830578fdbceb2f7e0732b94b1d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter<blockquote>资料来源：Peloton 2022年第一季度股东信</blockquote> Seeing Peloton maintain high subscription revenue growth is encouraging as it means that Peloton can rely on stable cash flow while its Connected Fitness segment continues to experience volatility in terms of operating results. Subscription revenue is also the high-margin segment of the Peloton business model. Overall gross margin was 32.6% for Q1 2022. Again, in line with management’s expectations. Product gross margin was 12.0%, as expected given the Bike price reduction, supply chain constraints, and impact from the Tread recall. Subscription gross margin was 66.7%, up 820 basis points.<blockquote>看到Peloton保持高订阅收入增长令人鼓舞，因为这意味着Peloton可以依靠稳定的现金流，而其互联健身部门的经营业绩继续出现波动。订阅收入也是Peloton商业模式的高利润部分。2022年第一季度的整体毛利率为32.6%。再次，符合管理层的预期。考虑到自行车降价、供应链限制以及胎面召回的影响，产品毛利率为12.0%，符合预期。订阅毛利率为66.7%，上升820个基点。</blockquote> Q1 Adjusted EBITDA was $(233.7) million. This was the result of revenue growing at only 6% while operating expenses continued to grow at a triple-digit rate. However, it is important to note that the reported Adjusted EBITDA was way less than the $(285) million guided in Q4 2021. Nonetheless, it’s still a considerable cash burn given the size of the company.<blockquote>第一季度调整后EBITDA为(2.337亿)美元。这是由于收入仅增长6%，而运营费用继续以三位数的速度增长。然而，值得注意的是，报告的调整后EBITDA远低于2021年第四季度指导的2.85亿美元。尽管如此，考虑到公司的规模，这仍然是相当大的现金消耗。</blockquote> Peloton ended Q1 with $924 million in cash and cash equivalents, about $600+ million lower than the prior quarter. You can see why Peloton’s balance sheet health scared investors despite its CFO reassuring any liquidity concerns during the&nbsp;earnings call:<blockquote>Peloton第一季度末的现金和现金等价物为9.24亿美元，比上一季度减少约6亿多美元。您可以理解为什么Peloton的资产负债表健康状况令投资者感到害怕，尽管其首席财务官在收益看涨期权期间安抚了任何流动性担忧：</blockquote> I think just cutting to the chase, we don't see the need for any additional capital raise based on our current outlook.As we mentioned, we're taking significant steps to adjust our expenses across COGS and opex with this revised revenue guidance, then we have a lot of levers to pull. In addition, what we're also going to do is reevaluate the cadence of some of the capital investments that we're making, inclusive of POP. And while we know that POP is a decades-long, right-term strategic move for us, there's definitely ways for us to find ways to make that a more economical spend over the next couple of years. (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call Transcript) (“POP” refers to&nbsp;Peloton Output Park, Peloton’s goal of building its first US factory.)<blockquote>我想开门见山，根据我们目前的前景，我们认为没有必要筹集任何额外的资金。正如我们提到的，我们正在采取重大措施，通过修订后的收入指引来调整销货成本和运营支出，那么我们就有很多杠杆可以利用。此外，我们还将重新评估我们正在进行的一些资本投资的节奏，包括POP。虽然我们知道POP对我们来说是一项长达数十年的正确战略举措，但我们肯定有办法在未来几年内找到更经济的支出。（来源：Peloton 2022年第一季度收益看涨期权成绩单）（“POP”指的是Peloton Output Park，Peloton建立第一家美国工厂的目标。）</blockquote> A few weeks later, Peloton announced an&nbsp;equity offering&nbsp;of 23,913,043 shares of common stock at $46 per share, totaling $1.07 billion. This dilutes shareholders and makes management looks like liars.<blockquote>几周后，Peloton宣布以每股46美元的价格发行23,913,043股普通股，总计10.7亿美元。这稀释了股东，让管理层看起来像骗子。</blockquote> It gets worse from here. Management revised down its prior full-year guidance. The introduction of ranges in its guidance also means that there’s a lack of confidence on management’s part, as well as a great deal of uncertainty for Peloton as the economy reopens.<blockquote>从这里开始变得更糟。管理层下调了之前的全年指引。在其指导中引入范围也意味着管理层缺乏信心，以及随着经济重新开放，Peloton面临很大的不确定性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bc51c3fe742542b143eedeb5b53a160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Peloton Q4 2021 Shareholder Letter, Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter, and Author’s Figure<blockquote>资料来源：Peloton 2021年第四季度股东信、Peloton 2022年第一季度股东信和作者图</blockquote> Despite all the doom and gloom, I believe the worst is behind Peloton - the Tread has been successfully recalled and the updated guidance has been issued. FY 2022 will be a challenging year for Peloton due to tough YOY comps, people returning to the office, and gyms reopening. Peloton should return to growth mode soon as management continued to pile cash on R&amp;D ($97.7 million in Q1) and CapEx ($87.2 million in Q1). I’m not going to sugarcoat, it’s been a terrible few quarters, and there were some head-scratching moments like the Bike price cut as well as its recent equity raise. But a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment.<blockquote>尽管困难重重，但我相信Peloton最糟糕的情况已经过去——胎面已成功召回，更新的指南也已发布。由于同比业绩严峻、人们返回办公室以及健身房重新开放，2022财年对Peloton来说将是充满挑战的一年。随着管理层继续在研发（第一季度为9770万美元）和资本支出（第一季度为8720万美元）上投入现金，Peloton应该很快就会恢复增长模式。我不想粉饰，这几个季度过得很糟糕，也有一些令人挠头的时刻，比如自行车降价以及最近的股权融资。但几个糟糕的季度并不会让Peloton成为一项糟糕的投资。</blockquote> Building An Ecosystem<blockquote>构建生态系统</blockquote> The bear thesis has always been \"the economy is reopening, people are returning to the gym, people want to socialize, working out at home is boring, Peloton is too expensive, Peloton is overhyped” yada, yada, yada. Consequently, negative news and poor results from the prior quarters make the bears sound smart. Furthermore, the stock price tanked to new 52-week lows. As such, sentiment on the company has been nothing but fear written all over, and therefore, it’s so easy for investors to dismiss Peloton’s bull case during these times.<blockquote>空头的论点一直是“经济正在重新开放，人们正在重返健身房，人们想要社交，在家锻炼很无聊，Peloton太贵，Peloton被过度炒作”等等，等等，等等。因此，前几个季度的负面消息和糟糕的业绩让空头听起来很聪明。此外，股价跌至52周新低。因此，人们对该公司的情绪充满了恐惧，因此，投资者在此期间很容易忽视Peloton的牛市。</blockquote> In the next few paragraphs, I’d like to remind readers of Peloton’s bull thesis and why its growth story remains intact, despite short-term road bumps.<blockquote>在接下来的几段中，我想提醒读者Peloton的牛市论点，以及为什么尽管短期道路坎坷，但其增长故事仍然完好无损。</blockquote> The Peloton Cult- Despite revenues only increasing 6% YOY, Connected Fitness subscriptions grew 87% YOY to 2.49 million with only 0.82% monthly churn, despite tough comps. I do not focus so much on revenue now since Peloton’s priority is to land as many members as possible, which is the sole reason why management made the price cut on the Peloton Bike - building a larger cult is what Peloton is striving for. In essence, Peloton is delaying gratification so it can reap the benefits of a network effect moat tomorrow by leveraging the strong brand moat it possesses today.<blockquote>Peloton邪教-尽管收入同比仅增长6%，但互联健身订阅量同比增长87%至249万份，尽管竞争激烈，每月流失率仅为0.82%。我现在不太关注收入，因为Peloton的首要任务是获得尽可能多的会员，这是管理层降低Peloton自行车价格的唯一原因——建立更大的狂热是Peloton正在努力的目标。从本质上讲，Peloton正在推迟满足，以便明天可以通过利用今天拥有的强大品牌护城河来获得网络效应护城河的好处。</blockquote> Operational Expansion- Speaking of network effects, Peloton has yet to establish a strong international market presence. In FY 2021, international revenue only makes up 7% of total revenue. The acquisition of Precor is highly strategic as the legacy manufacturer has a large presence in international markets. Such an acquisition should be beneficial for Peloton to enter into new markets. At the same time, the acquisition of Precor grants Peloton access to Precor's connections with commercial gyms. Management also has desires to expand commercially into hotels, universities, corporate campuses, and apartment buildings. Here's what Peloton President William Lynch said about what it means for Peloton if they expand commercially:<blockquote>运营扩张-说到网络效应，Peloton尚未建立强大的国际市场影响力。2021财年，国际收入仅占总收入的7%。收购Precor具有高度战略意义，因为这家传统制造商在国际市场上拥有大量业务。这样的收购应该有利于Peloton进入新市场。与此同时，收购Precor使Peloton能够利用Precor与商业健身房的联系。管理层还希望将商业扩展到酒店、大学、企业园区和公寓楼。以下是Peloton总裁William Lynch对Peloton商业扩张意味着什么的评价：</blockquote> And then, also, that channel not only is a good business for us as it reemerges, it's also an incredible lead generation channel. Just an example of that is in hospitality, when we have a Peloton bike in a hotel for a year. It sells, on average, seven bikes into the home, and that talks to the quality of the experience that it offers. When a traveler goes into a Westin and gets on their Peloton in the morning and tries it using our trial, we get that lead capture. And we know, given the strength of the experience, they come home, and they buy Peloton. And so, it's not only a business that we think has a lot of, financially, has a lot of upside going forward given the catalog. Not only have they been helpful on the manufacturing side, it's very strategic for our at-home business as a trial channel, certainly in hospitality, but also when you think about universities and other verticals. (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call) New Product Lines- Here's an impressive statistic, Peloton was able to capture 2.49 million Connected Fitness subscribers with only two types of product: Bike and Tread. Imagine how many more members will join the cult when Peloton introduces new products like rowing machines, elliptical machines, or even punching bags. Just recently, Peloton launched the&nbsp;Peloton Guide, an “AI-enabled device easily connects to televisions, providing Members instant access to a suite of expert Instructors and the well-loved Peloton content library.” Among its features is a Movement Tracker, powered by smart camera technology and machine learning. A small step into the Metaverse perhaps? Nevertheless, management has been pouring money into R&amp;D and I expect management to introduce more innovations in the near future.<blockquote>而且，当该渠道重新出现时，它不仅对我们来说是一项好业务，而且也是一项令人难以置信的销售线索生成渠道.这方面的一个例子是在酒店，当我们在酒店里有一辆Peloton自行车一年。它平均向家庭销售七辆自行车，这说明了它提供的体验质量。当一个旅行者走进威斯汀酒店，在早上坐上他们的Peloton，使用我们的试用版进行试用时，我们会得到线索捕获。我们知道，鉴于这种体验的力量，他们回家后会购买Peloton。因此，考虑到目录，我们认为这不仅是一项在财务上有很大进步的业务。它们不仅对制造方面有帮助，而且对于我们的家庭业务来说也非常具有战略意义试用频道当然是在酒店业，但当你想到大学和其他垂直行业时也是如此。（来源：Peloton 2022年第一季度看涨期权收益）新产品线–这是一个令人印象深刻的统计数据，Peloton仅使用两种类型的产品（Bike和Tread）就吸引了249万联网健身订阅者。想象一下，当Peloton推出划船机、椭圆机甚至沙袋等新产品时，会有多少成员加入这个邪教。就在最近，Peloton推出了Peloton Guide，这是一款“支持人工智能的设备，可以轻松连接到电视，为会员提供一套专家讲师和深受喜爱的Peloton内容库。”它的功能之一是一个运动跟踪器，由智能相机技术和机器学习提供支持。也许是进入元宇宙的一小步？尽管如此，管理层一直在向研发投入资金，我预计管理层将在不久的将来推出更多创新。</blockquote> Fitness Streaming Giant- Peloton offers unmatched workout content led by 45+ world-class instructors across 10+ different workout categories, enhanced with interactive music from world-renowned artists. The Peloton app boasts a 4.9 rating with 580,000+, more than twice its biggest competitor, Beachbody (BODY). Peloton is without any doubt, the largest premium fitness streaming platform in the world. Its stellar reputation in content creation opens the doors for collaboration with other streaming giants such as Spotify (SPOT), Apple (AAPL), Roku (ROKU), and Netflix (NFLX). With its valuation cut to about $16 billion at the time of this writing, Peloton may also be an attractive acquisition target for Apple, a complement to Apple Fitness+.<blockquote>健身流媒体巨头-Peloton提供无与伦比的健身内容，由45名以上世界级教练带领，涵盖10多个不同的健身类别，并辅以世界知名艺术家的互动音乐。Peloton应用程序以580,000+的评分为4.9，是其最大竞争对手Beachbody（身体）的两倍多。毫无疑问，Peloton是世界上最大的优质健身流媒体平台。其在内容创作方面的卓越声誉为与Spotify(SPOT)、苹果(AAPL)、Roku(Roku)和Netflix(NFLX)等其他流媒体巨头的合作打开了大门。在撰写本文时，Peloton的估值已降至约160亿美元，对于苹果来说，它也可能是一个有吸引力的收购目标，是苹果健身+的补充。</blockquote> In addition, Peloton’s powerful streaming platform may also be an excellent medium for sports federations to conduct global online events. For example, holding a marathon race using the Tread or an online bicycle race with the Peloton Bikes. This allows people from all over the world to compete with one another in the comfort of their homes.<blockquote>此外，Peloton强大的流媒体平台也可能成为体育联合会开展全球线上赛事的绝佳媒介。例如，使用胎面举行马拉松比赛或使用Peloton自行车举行在线自行车比赛。这使得来自世界各地的人们可以在舒适的家中相互竞争。</blockquote> Selling Ads- Here's another common bear thesis: “Peloton is just an iPad attached to a Bike.” Well, Peloton can one day use those screens to run ads, as a way to diversify its revenue stream. For example, Ads can hover over the screen or be spoken out by the instructors during mid-workout breaks. Another way would be for Peloton to switch to a freemium model where one subscription price includes ads and limited content access, while the other is ad-free with unlimited access.<blockquote>销售广告——这是另一个常见的熊论点：“Peloton只是一个连接在自行车上的iPad。”好吧，Peloton有一天可以使用这些屏幕来投放广告，作为实现收入来源多元化的一种方式。例如，广告可以悬停在屏幕上，或者由教练在锻炼中途休息时说出。另一种方法是Peloton转向免费增值模式，其中一种订阅价格包括广告和有限的内容访问，而另一种是无广告且无限访问。</blockquote> These are just some of the things Peloton can do to continue to grow as a company so claiming that Peloton is dead in the water is clearly false. Again, the past few quarters have been terrible. But Peloton’s first-mover advantage and market leadership give the company the opportunity to grow further as outlined above. Its cult-like following, expanding network of members, innovative products, industry-leading content, and new revenue opportunity are signs of an emerging Peloton ecosystem.<blockquote>这些只是Peloton作为一家公司继续发展所能做的一些事情，因此声称Peloton已经死在水里显然是错误的。再说一次，过去几个季度的情况很糟糕。但Peloton的先发优势和市场领导地位使该公司有机会进一步发展，如上所述。其狂热的追随者、不断扩大的会员网络、创新的产品、行业领先的内容和新的收入机会是新兴Peloton生态系统的标志。</blockquote> Investors shouldn't be so quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.<blockquote>投资者不应该这么快就忽视Peloton的增长潜力。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> In my first Peloton&nbsp;article, I mentioned:<blockquote>在我的第一篇Peloton文章中，我提到：</blockquote> While growth may slow down due to product recalls, negative publicity, and the reopening of the economy, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead. However, despite its bullish growth thesis, valuations and technicals seemed bearish at the moment. Sometimes, it pays to wait a little longer. (Source: Author’s article: Peloton: Growth Story Still Intact, But Valuations And Technicals Do Not Look Good) Wait a little longer I did.<blockquote>尽管由于产品召回、负面宣传和经济重新开放，增长可能会放缓，但Peloton仍有很长的增长跑道。然而，尽管其增长论点看涨，但估值和技术面目前似乎看跌。有时候，多等一会儿是值得的。（来源：作者文章：Peloton：增长故事仍然完好无损，但估值和技术面看起来不太好）再等一会儿我做到了。</blockquote> I argued that the stock was forming a head and shoulder pattern and that it will likely trend downwards to the $70 or $50 level. As we all know, the stock tanked following Q1 earnings, primarily due to the huge guidance cut. It gapped below the $70 support and is now hovering in the $50 support level where I initiated a starter position. The next major support level is $35.<blockquote>我认为该股正在形成头肩形态，并且可能会下跌至70美元或50美元的水平。众所周知，该股在第一季度财报公布后暴跌，主要是由于指引大幅下调。它跌破70美元支撑位，现在徘徊在50美元支撑位，我在那里建仓。下一个主要支撑位是35美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbc1cf30c6af00792eb4d10481a143e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote> At current prices, Peloton is trading at only 4.0x EV / LTM Revenue, close to its historical low of 3.7x. The problem with valuing Peloton is that it is currently unprofitable so we can only use revenue multiples to gauge its relative valuation - operating results are too volatile to make accurate assumptions in the DCF model. In my opinion, a 4.0x revenue multiple provides ample margin of safety for a growth stock (or turnaround stock for that matter).<blockquote>按目前价格计算，Peloton的交易价格仅为EV/LTM收入的4.0倍，接近3.7倍的历史低点。对Peloton进行估值的问题在于，它目前尚未盈利，因此我们只能使用收入倍数来衡量其相对估值——经营业绩波动太大，无法在DCF模型中做出准确的假设。在我看来，4.0倍的收入倍数为成长型股票（或扭亏为盈的股票）提供了充足的安全边际。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0de4fdd41764434a17e4e187765c7eb5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> It also helps to know that TCV bought more shares of PTON at $46 after initiating a position back in May 2021 at around $100. TCV is led by Jay Hoag, who is on the board of directors of Peloton.<blockquote>了解TCV在2021年5月以100美元左右的价格建仓后，以46美元的价格购买了更多PTON股票也很有帮助。TCV由Peloton董事会成员Jay Hoag领导。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1872e9e5e17fd189e431a2d6a25660cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Insider Monkey<blockquote>资料来源：内幕猴子</blockquote> While Peloton looks cheap on a historical basis, Peloton is still a high-risk bet due to headwinds from the reopening of the economy, the return to gyms, supply chain constraints, unprofitability, and unsustainable cash burn rates.<blockquote>虽然从历史角度来看，Peloton看起来很便宜，但由于经济重新开放、健身房回归、供应链限制、无利可图和不可持续的现金消耗率等不利因素，Peloton仍然是一个高风险的赌注。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Depending on which camp you belong to, Peloton may or may not be the most revolutionary company. But we can all agree that Peloton has a strong brand, best-in-class hardware, and industry-leading fitness content. However, a few bad quarters seemed to have spooked investors, especially regarding the company’s unprofitability and the recent guidance cut. The reopening of the economy is also threatening Peloton’s growth prospects.<blockquote>根据你属于哪个阵营，Peloton可能是也可能不是最具革命性的公司。但我们都同意Peloton拥有强大的品牌、一流的硬件和行业领先的健身内容。然而，几个糟糕的季度似乎吓坏了投资者，特别是关于该公司的无利可图和最近的指引下调。经济的重新开放也威胁着Peloton的增长前景。</blockquote> While discouraging, a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment. To me, Peloton’s network is growing day by day and it has the potential to scale further as new products, content, and regions are added. In addition, the recent equity raise also provided Peloton with ample liquidity to cover near-term cash burn. Couple that with cost savings initiatives, Peloton should be able to return to cash-flow-positive by next year. Finally, I believe the selloff is overdone. The stock could go even lower from here but current valuations already provide a decent margin of safety for investors. As such, I am Long PTON.<blockquote>虽然令人沮丧，但几个糟糕的季度并不会让Peloton成为一项糟糕的投资。对我来说，Peloton的网络日益增长，并且随着新产品、内容和地区的添加，它有进一步扩展的潜力。此外，最近的股权融资也为Peloton提供了充足的流动性来弥补近期的现金消耗。再加上成本节约举措，Peloton应该能够在明年恢复正现金流。最后，我认为抛售过度了。该股可能会进一步走低，但目前的估值已经为投资者提供了不错的安全边际。因此，我做多PTON。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471095-peloton-pton-stock-buy-not-bad-investment\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471095-peloton-pton-stock-buy-not-bad-investment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162603487","content_text":"Summary\n\nPoor Q1 results and a massive guidance cut shocked investors that sent the stock down 30+%.\nWhile bears are celebrating, investors shouldn't be too quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.\nManagement is delaying gratification to build an ecosystem for tomorrow.\nAn insider has been buying Peloton during the meltdown. So am I.\n\nkali9/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nPeloton (PTON) reported disappointing back-to-back quarters. The most recent one was accompanied by a huge revenue guidance cut that lost many investors' confidence. Moreover, the reopening of the economy seemed to play a big role in Peloton's slowdown. Despite all these factors, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead and the company should rise from the ashes in the following few quarters. Although quite risky, the recent valuation drop makes Peloton a compelling buy.\nTwo Bad Quarters\nLet’s cut to the chase. Peloton’s most recent quarter performance was abysmal. Many thought that Q4 2021 results were bad enough and that it wouldn’t get worse but guess what? It did get worse, significantly.\nPeloton ended Q1 with revenue of $805 million, just 6% higher from the year-ago quarter and down 14% sequentially, but in line with management’s guidance of $800 million. The slowdown in growth was primarily due to weakness in the Connected Fitness segment, posting a 17% YOY decline to $501 million as a result of fewer Bike deliveries, Bike price cut, and Tread recall. This figure also includes about $60 million of contribution from Precor. So excluding Precor, Connected Fitness revenue would have dropped by about 27%, YOY.\nOn the bright side, subscription revenue growth remained strong, growing 94% YOY to $304 million, driven by an 87% increase in Connected Fitness subscriptions to 2.49 million and a 74% increase in digital subscriptions to 887,000, amassing 6.2 million total members globally. However, monthly churn rate ticked up slightly to 0.82% from the prior quarter’s 0.73%, and both total platform workouts and Average Monthly Workouts per Subscription continued their downtrend, signaling a gradual shift from in-home fitness to gyms.\nSource: Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter\nSeeing Peloton maintain high subscription revenue growth is encouraging as it means that Peloton can rely on stable cash flow while its Connected Fitness segment continues to experience volatility in terms of operating results. Subscription revenue is also the high-margin segment of the Peloton business model. Overall gross margin was 32.6% for Q1 2022. Again, in line with management’s expectations. Product gross margin was 12.0%, as expected given the Bike price reduction, supply chain constraints, and impact from the Tread recall. Subscription gross margin was 66.7%, up 820 basis points.\nQ1 Adjusted EBITDA was $(233.7) million. This was the result of revenue growing at only 6% while operating expenses continued to grow at a triple-digit rate. However, it is important to note that the reported Adjusted EBITDA was way less than the $(285) million guided in Q4 2021. Nonetheless, it’s still a considerable cash burn given the size of the company.\nPeloton ended Q1 with $924 million in cash and cash equivalents, about $600+ million lower than the prior quarter. You can see why Peloton’s balance sheet health scared investors despite its CFO reassuring any liquidity concerns during the earnings call:\n\n I think just cutting to the chase,\n we don't see the need for any additional capital raise based on our current outlook.As we mentioned, we're taking significant steps to adjust our expenses across COGS and opex with this revised revenue guidance, then we have a lot of levers to pull. In addition, what we're also going to do is reevaluate the cadence of some of the capital investments that we're making, inclusive of POP. And while we know that POP is a decades-long, right-term strategic move for us, there's definitely ways for us to find ways to make that a more economical spend over the next couple of years.\n\n\n (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call Transcript)\n\n(“POP” refers to Peloton Output Park, Peloton’s goal of building its first US factory.)\nA few weeks later, Peloton announced an equity offering of 23,913,043 shares of common stock at $46 per share, totaling $1.07 billion. This dilutes shareholders and makes management looks like liars.\nIt gets worse from here. Management revised down its prior full-year guidance. The introduction of ranges in its guidance also means that there’s a lack of confidence on management’s part, as well as a great deal of uncertainty for Peloton as the economy reopens.\nSource: Peloton Q4 2021 Shareholder Letter, Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter, and Author’s Figure\nDespite all the doom and gloom, I believe the worst is behind Peloton - the Tread has been successfully recalled and the updated guidance has been issued. FY 2022 will be a challenging year for Peloton due to tough YOY comps, people returning to the office, and gyms reopening. Peloton should return to growth mode soon as management continued to pile cash on R&D ($97.7 million in Q1) and CapEx ($87.2 million in Q1). I’m not going to sugarcoat, it’s been a terrible few quarters, and there were some head-scratching moments like the Bike price cut as well as its recent equity raise. But a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment.\nBuilding An Ecosystem\nThe bear thesis has always been \"the economy is reopening, people are returning to the gym, people want to socialize, working out at home is boring, Peloton is too expensive, Peloton is overhyped” yada, yada, yada. Consequently, negative news and poor results from the prior quarters make the bears sound smart. Furthermore, the stock price tanked to new 52-week lows. As such, sentiment on the company has been nothing but fear written all over, and therefore, it’s so easy for investors to dismiss Peloton’s bull case during these times.\nIn the next few paragraphs, I’d like to remind readers of Peloton’s bull thesis and why its growth story remains intact, despite short-term road bumps.\nThe Peloton Cult- Despite revenues only increasing 6% YOY, Connected Fitness subscriptions grew 87% YOY to 2.49 million with only 0.82% monthly churn, despite tough comps. I do not focus so much on revenue now since Peloton’s priority is to land as many members as possible, which is the sole reason why management made the price cut on the Peloton Bike - building a larger cult is what Peloton is striving for. In essence, Peloton is delaying gratification so it can reap the benefits of a network effect moat tomorrow by leveraging the strong brand moat it possesses today.\nOperational Expansion- Speaking of network effects, Peloton has yet to establish a strong international market presence. In FY 2021, international revenue only makes up 7% of total revenue. The acquisition of Precor is highly strategic as the legacy manufacturer has a large presence in international markets. Such an acquisition should be beneficial for Peloton to enter into new markets. At the same time, the acquisition of Precor grants Peloton access to Precor's connections with commercial gyms. Management also has desires to expand commercially into hotels, universities, corporate campuses, and apartment buildings. Here's what Peloton President William Lynch said about what it means for Peloton if they expand commercially:\n\n And then, also, that channel not only is a good business for us as it reemerges, it's also an\n incredible lead generation channel. Just an example of that is in hospitality, when we have a Peloton bike in a hotel for a year. It sells, on average, seven bikes into the home, and that talks to the quality of the experience that it offers.\n\n\n When a traveler goes into a Westin and gets on their Peloton in the morning and tries it using our trial, we get that lead capture. And we know, given the strength of the experience, they come home, and they buy Peloton. And so, it's not only a business that we think has a lot of, financially, has a lot of upside going forward given the catalog. Not only have they been helpful on the manufacturing side, it's very strategic for our at-home business as a\n trial channel, certainly in hospitality, but also when you think about universities and other verticals.\n\n\n (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call)\n\nNew Product Lines- Here's an impressive statistic, Peloton was able to capture 2.49 million Connected Fitness subscribers with only two types of product: Bike and Tread. Imagine how many more members will join the cult when Peloton introduces new products like rowing machines, elliptical machines, or even punching bags. Just recently, Peloton launched the Peloton Guide, an “AI-enabled device easily connects to televisions, providing Members instant access to a suite of expert Instructors and the well-loved Peloton content library.” Among its features is a Movement Tracker, powered by smart camera technology and machine learning. A small step into the Metaverse perhaps? Nevertheless, management has been pouring money into R&D and I expect management to introduce more innovations in the near future.\nFitness Streaming Giant- Peloton offers unmatched workout content led by 45+ world-class instructors across 10+ different workout categories, enhanced with interactive music from world-renowned artists. The Peloton app boasts a 4.9 rating with 580,000+, more than twice its biggest competitor, Beachbody (BODY). Peloton is without any doubt, the largest premium fitness streaming platform in the world. Its stellar reputation in content creation opens the doors for collaboration with other streaming giants such as Spotify (SPOT), Apple (AAPL), Roku (ROKU), and Netflix (NFLX). With its valuation cut to about $16 billion at the time of this writing, Peloton may also be an attractive acquisition target for Apple, a complement to Apple Fitness+.\nIn addition, Peloton’s powerful streaming platform may also be an excellent medium for sports federations to conduct global online events. For example, holding a marathon race using the Tread or an online bicycle race with the Peloton Bikes. This allows people from all over the world to compete with one another in the comfort of their homes.\nSelling Ads- Here's another common bear thesis: “Peloton is just an iPad attached to a Bike.” Well, Peloton can one day use those screens to run ads, as a way to diversify its revenue stream. For example, Ads can hover over the screen or be spoken out by the instructors during mid-workout breaks. Another way would be for Peloton to switch to a freemium model where one subscription price includes ads and limited content access, while the other is ad-free with unlimited access.\nThese are just some of the things Peloton can do to continue to grow as a company so claiming that Peloton is dead in the water is clearly false. Again, the past few quarters have been terrible. But Peloton’s first-mover advantage and market leadership give the company the opportunity to grow further as outlined above. Its cult-like following, expanding network of members, innovative products, industry-leading content, and new revenue opportunity are signs of an emerging Peloton ecosystem.\nInvestors shouldn't be so quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.\nValuation\nIn my first Peloton article, I mentioned:\n\n While growth may slow down due to product recalls, negative publicity, and the reopening of the economy, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead. However, despite its bullish growth thesis, valuations and technicals seemed bearish at the moment.\n\n\n Sometimes, it pays to wait a little longer.\n\n\n (Source: Author’s article: Peloton: Growth Story Still Intact, But Valuations And Technicals Do Not Look Good)\n\nWait a little longer I did.\nI argued that the stock was forming a head and shoulder pattern and that it will likely trend downwards to the $70 or $50 level. As we all know, the stock tanked following Q1 earnings, primarily due to the huge guidance cut. It gapped below the $70 support and is now hovering in the $50 support level where I initiated a starter position. The next major support level is $35.\nSource: TradingView\nAt current prices, Peloton is trading at only 4.0x EV / LTM Revenue, close to its historical low of 3.7x. The problem with valuing Peloton is that it is currently unprofitable so we can only use revenue multiples to gauge its relative valuation - operating results are too volatile to make accurate assumptions in the DCF model. In my opinion, a 4.0x revenue multiple provides ample margin of safety for a growth stock (or turnaround stock for that matter).\nSource: TIKR.com\nIt also helps to know that TCV bought more shares of PTON at $46 after initiating a position back in May 2021 at around $100. TCV is led by Jay Hoag, who is on the board of directors of Peloton.\nSource: Insider Monkey\nWhile Peloton looks cheap on a historical basis, Peloton is still a high-risk bet due to headwinds from the reopening of the economy, the return to gyms, supply chain constraints, unprofitability, and unsustainable cash burn rates.\nConclusion\nDepending on which camp you belong to, Peloton may or may not be the most revolutionary company. But we can all agree that Peloton has a strong brand, best-in-class hardware, and industry-leading fitness content. However, a few bad quarters seemed to have spooked investors, especially regarding the company’s unprofitability and the recent guidance cut. The reopening of the economy is also threatening Peloton’s growth prospects.\nWhile discouraging, a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment. To me, Peloton’s network is growing day by day and it has the potential to scale further as new products, content, and regions are added. In addition, the recent equity raise also provided Peloton with ample liquidity to cover near-term cash burn. Couple that with cost savings initiatives, Peloton should be able to return to cash-flow-positive by next year. Finally, I believe the selloff is overdone. The stock could go even lower from here but current valuations already provide a decent margin of safety for investors. As such, I am Long PTON.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1546,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/872467439"}