Ernestgoh0
2021-11-22
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Adobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space<blockquote>Adobe与微软股票：主导软件领域的两家长期领导者</blockquote>
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Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space<blockquote>Adobe与微软股票：主导软件领域的两家长期领导者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159890392","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Microsoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T. It's also making forays into enterprise applications for the metaverse.</li> <li>Adobe continues to be the undisputed leader in the creative software market. Its 2023 TAM of $147B signifies huge opportunities for the company to leverage.</li> <li>We discuss why both companies deserve to be anchor stocks for any growth investor's portfolio.</li> <li>We also discuss whether it's a good time to buy both stocks now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78cf4b56323a37eacd27b73ced593338\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1082\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软继续保持软件之王的地位，其企业价值超过2.5 T美元。它还涉足元宇宙的企业应用。</li><li>Adobe仍然是创意软件市场无可争议的领导者。其2023年TAM为$147B，这意味着该公司可以利用巨大的机会。</li><li>我们讨论为什么这两家公司值得成为任何成长型投资者投资组合的锚定股票。</li><li>我们还讨论了现在是否是购买这两只股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Adobe Inc. (ADBE) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) are two of the most revered software leaders worldwide. Notwithstanding, MSFT is easily the bigger brother here as it boasts an enterprise value (EV) of $2.52T. In contrast, ADBE's EV is only worth $326B, as it trails the King of Software by a wide margin. Despite that, Adobe has been growing rapidly and has an exceptionally wide moat in the creative industries. It has also extended its leadership into both the B2B and B2C channels, as it leverages its huge 2023 TAM worth $147B. Therefore, there's a tremendous amount of potential growth for the creative software leader to tap.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe Inc.(ADBE)和微软公司(MSFT)是全球最受尊敬的两家软件领导者。尽管如此，MSFT无疑是这里的老大哥，因为它拥有2.52 T美元的企业价值(EV)。相比之下，ADBE的EV价值仅为$326B，远远落后于软件之王。尽管如此，Adobe一直在快速增长，并在创意行业拥有异常宽阔的护城河。它还将其领导地位扩展到B2B和B2C渠道，因为它利用了价值147B美元的巨额2023年TAM。因此，创意软件领导者有巨大的潜在增长空间可供挖掘。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, Microsoft has quickly pivoted itself towards Cloud Computing as its biggest growth driver. Under Satya Nadella's capable leadership, MSFT has transformed itself into a leading Cloud hyperscaler. Azure continues to grow its clout rapidly as it leverages MSFT's deep enterprise software applications expertise against the #1 Cloud hyperscaler AWS (AMZN). The company has also telegraphed its plans to spur its next growth phase through enterprise applications in the metaverse.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，微软已迅速将云计算作为其最大的增长动力。在Satya Nadella的干练领导下，MSFT已将自己转变为领先的云超大规模企业。Azure继续快速增长其影响力，因为它利用MSFT深厚的企业软件应用专业知识来对抗排名第一的云超大规模企业AWS(AMZN)。该公司还透露了通过元宇宙企业应用刺激下一个增长阶段的计划。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss these two software behemoths and demonstrate why both companies are very high-quality companies. As a result, we believe that both deserve to be considered anchor stocks for most growth investors' portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论这两家软件巨头，并展示为什么这两家公司都是非常优质的公司。因此，我们认为两者都值得被视为大多数成长型投资者投资组合的锚定股票。</blockquote></p><p> We also discuss whether it's an appropriate time to buy both stocks now.</p><p><blockquote>我们还讨论了现在是否是购买这两只股票的合适时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADBE Vs. MSFT Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ADBE与MSFT股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c95ae8c533f02f2af083ceee62bf9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ADBE Vs. MSFT stock YTD performance (as of 19 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ADBE与MSFT股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月19日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ADBE and MSFT stock have easily outperformed the market this year. MSFT stock is the leader here, with a YTD gain of 54.3%. While ADBE stock struggled initially in March, its upward momentum has recovered remarkably. Its YTD gain of 37.6% is well ahead of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF's (SPY) and Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 25.4% and 28.8%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>ADBE和MSFT股票今年的表现轻松跑赢市场。MSFT股票是其中的领头羊，年初至今上涨了54.3%。尽管ADBE股票在3月份最初表现不佳，但其上涨势头已显着恢复。其年初至今涨幅为37.6%，远高于SPDR标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和景顺QQQ ETF（QQQ）年初至今分别25.4%和28.8%的回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99bfbaccbc2e6a4f815d081612501c82\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ADBE Vs. MSFT stock 3Y performance (as of 19 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ADBE与MSFT股票3年表现（截至21年11月19日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As long-term leaders, we also want to evaluate their performances over a longer timeframe. On a 3Y basis, we can also easily observe their outperformance. MSFT leads with a 3Y total return of 216.8%, at a CAGR of 46.7%. It's a phenomenal return and definitely not an \"old-school\" company that MSFT detractors often point out. The market loves MSFT stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期领导者，我们也希望评估他们在更长时间内的表现。在3年的基础上，我们也可以很容易地观察到他们的优异表现。MSFT以216.8%的3年总回报率领先，复合年增长率为46.7%。这是一个惊人的回报，绝对不是MSFT批评者经常指出的“老派”公司。市场喜欢MSFT股票。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, ADBE stock has also easily beaten the market over the last three years. Its 3Y total return of 188.2%, at a CAGR of 42.1%, is also breathtaking. So both stocks have clearly and easily outperformed the market over the last three years.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，ADBE股票在过去三年中也轻松跑赢了市场。其3年总回报率为188.2%，复合年增长率为42.1%，也令人惊叹。因此，这两只股票在过去三年中的表现明显且轻松地跑赢了市场。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we consider both stocks as solid long-term leaders in any growth investor's portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为这两只股票都是任何成长型投资者投资组合中可靠的长期领导者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Both are Fast-Growing and Tremendously Profitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>两者都增长迅速且利润丰厚</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517349e87627e8e2f390deb448800ef2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软LTM收入和EBITDA利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There's little doubt that Microsoft is the world's foremost enterprise software market leader. Its last-twelve-months (LTM) revenue of $176.3B easily surpassed Adobe's LTM revenue of $15.1B. Microsoft's revenue also grew by a remarkable CAGR of 15.3% over the last three years. Moreover, its LTM EBITDA margin of 48.6% demonstrates clearly the incredible profitability of Microsoft's well-diversified business model. It has also continued to gain operating leverage impressively over the last three years. Back in FQ1'19 (September 18), its EBITDA margin was just 41.4%.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，微软是世界上最重要的企业软件市场领导者。其过去12个月(LTM)收入为$176.3 B，轻松超过Adobe的LTM收入$15.1 B。过去三年，微软的收入复合年增长率也达到了15.3%。此外，其LTM EBITDA利润率为48.6%，清楚地表明了微软多元化商业模式令人难以置信的盈利能力。在过去三年中，它还继续令人印象深刻地获得运营杠杆。早在19年第一季度（9月18日），其EBITDA利润率仅为41.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2fc577d2f36a621eaa5eb693e3bcf7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Adobe LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Adobe LTM收入和EBITDA利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e97ef4419da68ba36792ec4c26245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Computer graphics and photo editing software market share worldwide in 2021. Data source: Enlyft</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年全球计算机图形和照片编辑软件市场份额。数据来源：Enlyft</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For investors not in the creative industries, you might be unfamiliar with Adobe's suite of creative software products. Nonetheless, Adobe is the undisputed market leader in its field. Adobe's digital media segment, which forms most of our internal valuation estimates, is its critical revenue and profit driver. Its creative cloud business within Adobe's digital media segment drove 82.8% of its FQ3'21 revenue. Readers can easily observe from the chart above that the leadership of its creative suite is deeply entrenched. There are simply no close competitors.</p><p><blockquote>对于非创意行业的投资者来说，您可能不熟悉Adobe的创意软件产品套件。尽管如此，Adobe是该领域无可争议的市场领导者。Adobe的数字媒体部门构成了我们内部估值的大部分，是其关键的收入和利润驱动力。Adobe数字媒体部门的creative cloud业务占其21年第三季度收入的82.8%。读者可以很容易地从上图中观察到，其创意套件的领导地位根深蒂固。根本没有势均力敌的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> The company has also grown its revenue impressively over the last three years. Its LTM revenue of $15.1B increased at a 3Y CAGR of 20.8%. In addition, its undisputed leadership has also led to remarkable EBITDA margins. ADBE reported an LTM EBITDA margin of 40.4% in FQ3'21. In contrast, its EBITDA margin was just 36% three years ago. Hence, Adobe has continued to gain impressive operating leverage as it scales. Moreover, the company continues to tap an expanding TAM that's expected to reach $147B by 2023.</p><p><blockquote>过去三年，该公司的收入也大幅增长。其LTM收入为$15.1 B，3年复合年增长率为20.8%。此外，其无可争议的领导地位也带来了显着的EBITDA利润率。ADBE报告21年第三季度LTM EBITDA利润率为40.4%。相比之下，三年前其EBITDA利润率仅为36%。因此，随着规模的扩大，Adobe继续获得令人印象深刻的运营杠杆。此外，该公司继续利用不断扩大的TAM，预计到2023年将达到$147B。</blockquote></p><p> <b>World-Class CEOs Lead Both Companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>世界级首席执行官领导两家公司</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdce70c0fa6ed792e87198796f0d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cloud infrastructure services vendor market share as of Q3'21. Data source: Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>截至21年第三季度的云基础设施服务供应商市场份额。数据来源：Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Two top CEOs lead both companies. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella turned Microsoft back into a growth company when he took over the helm. He saw the importance of Cloud Computing and positioned Azure to compete in the Cloud infrastructure market. As a result, Azure has continued to gain share rapidly. In CQ3'21, Azure's share reached 21%, according to Canalys. Although AWS continues to be the market leader, Azure has the edge over AWS in enterprise applications which is not AWS's core competency. Moreover, Microsoft is also extending its capability into applications for the metaverse. Nadella also has a highly impressive 97% approval rating at Glassdoor.</p><p><blockquote>两位顶级首席执行官领导着两家公司。微软首席执行官纳德拉（Satya Nadella）接手掌舵后，将微软重新变成了一家成长型公司。他看到了云计算的重要性，并将Azure定位为在云基础设施市场竞争。因此，Azure继续快速获得份额。根据Canalys的数据，21年第三季度，Azure的份额达到21%。尽管AWS仍然是市场领导者，但Azure在企业应用程序方面比AWS有优势，这不是AWS的核心竞争力。此外，微软还将其能力扩展到元宇宙的应用中。纳德拉在Glassdoor上的支持率也高达97%，令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is the #2 CEO in Glassdoor's Top CEOs 2021 category. He also has a 98% approval ratings in Glassdoor. Narayen, like his Microsoft counterpart Nadella, also hails from Hyderabad, a city in India. Narayen was also instrumental in having led Adobe to transfer its offerings into the Cloud. However, a massive transformation came with short-term pain early on as the revenue recognition for subscriptions was different from its upfront revenue recognition back then.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen是Glassdoor 2021年顶级首席执行官类别中排名第二的首席执行官。他在Glassdoor中也有98%的支持率。纳拉延和他的微软同行纳德拉一样，也来自印度海得拉巴。Narayen还在带领Adobe将其产品转移到云中方面发挥了重要作用。然而，大规模转型在早期带来了短期痛苦，因为订阅的收入确认与当时的前期收入确认不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0542f034da9bbcde81eddf509fbade46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Adobe Creative & Document Cloud annual recurring revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Adobe Creative&Document Cloud年度经常性收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But, the transformation has proven so successful for Adobe. The company now boasts one of the most massive annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the SaaS business. Adobe reported an ARR of $11.66B in FQ3'21, which increased by a remarkable 3Y CAGR of 22.1%. The company also guided for an FQ4'21 ARR of $12.21B, up 20% YoY. Therefore, Adobe is expected to continue its gangbusters growth momentum.</p><p><blockquote>但是，事实证明，Adobe的转型非常成功。该公司目前拥有SaaS业务中最大的年度经常性收入(ARR)之一。Adobe报告21年第3季度的ARR为$11.66 B，3年复合年增长率显着增长22.1%。该公司还预计21年第4季度ARR为$12.21 B，同比增长20%。因此，Adobe预计将继续其强劲的增长势头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is ADBE and MSFT Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，ADBE和MSFT股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2c34259c409fb5afc7b9770deb419a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Adobe est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>土坯东部。收入和EBITDA意味着共识。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a409f2afdd0fab713f5748be78a261a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软东部。收入和EBITDA意味着共识。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Adobe is expected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 14.7% over the next five years. In addition, its EBITDA is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 15.1% over the same period. Therefore, ADBE is expected to continue growing robustly, even though its topline and profitability will decelerate.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计未来五年收入将以14.7%的复合年增长率增长。此外，其EBITDA预计同期复合年增长率为15.1%。因此，尽管ADBE的营收和盈利能力将放缓，但预计ADBE将继续强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, Microsoft is estimated to increase its revenue at a 4Y CAGR of 13.8%. However, its EBITDA is estimated to grow at a CAGR of just 6.3% over the next four years, signifying a marked slowdown in EBITDA growth. Therefore, there's a valid concern of slowing growth on both software titans, with Microsoft's looking markedly worse off.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，微软预计其收入将以13.8%的4年复合年增长率增长。然而，其EBITDA预计未来四年的复合年增长率仅为6.3%，这表明EBITDA增长明显放缓。因此，人们有理由担心这两家软件巨头的增长放缓，其中微软的情况明显更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570d068f004efa2de56f66ce506c723c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MSFT stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MSFT股票EV/Fwd EBITDA估值趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adae720194f5c03c18c5ac7b6d91e590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ADBE stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ADBE股票EV/Fwd EBITDA估值趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ADBE stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 37.4x, about 29.4% above its 3Y mean of 28.9x. Therefore, there's no question that ADBE is trading at a premium valuation. Notwithstanding, it's expected to continue gaining operating leverage remarkably, although it seems that a considerable amount of growth premium may have been priced in. But, ADBE is a solid long-term stock. I wouldn't bet against Narayen & Co.'s capability to execute immaculately moving forward. However, the current valuation is a concern for new exposure in the short term. The stock has also recovered remarkably well from its recent October bottom. Therefore, we suggest investors wait for a meaningful retracement before adding. Hence, we revise our rating to short-term Neutral but retain our long-term bullish call.</p><p><blockquote>ADBE股票目前的EV/NTM EBITDA为37.4倍，比3年平均水平28.9倍高出约29.4%。因此，毫无疑问，ADBE的交易估值较高。尽管如此，预计它将继续显着提高运营杠杆，尽管相当大的增长溢价似乎已经被定价。但是，ADBE是一只稳健的长期股票。我不会打赌Narayen&Co.有能力完美地向前推进。然而，目前的估值是短期内新敞口的担忧。该股也从最近10月份的底部恢复得非常好。因此，我们建议投资者等待有意义的回撤后再加仓。因此，我们将评级调整为短期中性，但保留长期看涨的看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> MSFT stock is trading at an EV/Fwd EBITDA of 25.1x, against its 3Y mean of 19.2x. Even though MSFT is still expected to grow its topline reasonably fast, its EBITDA growth is expected to decelerate markedly. Therefore, MSFT stock's valuation seems to have priced in a significant amount of growth premium over the next few years. As such, we remain very cautious about adding MSFT stock at this level. Consequently, we retain our Neutral rating on MSFT stock.</p><p><blockquote>MSFT股票的EV/Fwd EBITDA为25.1倍，而3年平均值为19.2倍。尽管MSFT的营收预计仍将相当快地增长，但其EBITDA增长预计将显着减速。因此，MSFT股票的估值似乎已经反映了未来几年的大量增长溢价。因此，我们对在这个水平上增持MSFT股票仍然非常谨慎。因此，我们维持对MSFT股票的中性评级。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we would like to remind investors that both stocks are two of the best anchor growth stocks that investors can continue to hold if you own them. Therefore, if there's a meaningful retracement moving forward, we encourage you to add more exposure to either of them.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们还是想提醒投资者，这两只股票都是投资者可以继续持有的最好的锚定成长股中的两只。因此，如果未来出现有意义的回撤，我们鼓励您增加对其中任何一个的敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space<blockquote>Adobe与微软股票：主导软件领域的两家长期领导者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space<blockquote>Adobe与微软股票：主导软件领域的两家长期领导者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-22 13:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Microsoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T. It's also making forays into enterprise applications for the metaverse.</li> <li>Adobe continues to be the undisputed leader in the creative software market. Its 2023 TAM of $147B signifies huge opportunities for the company to leverage.</li> <li>We discuss why both companies deserve to be anchor stocks for any growth investor's portfolio.</li> <li>We also discuss whether it's a good time to buy both stocks now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78cf4b56323a37eacd27b73ced593338\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1082\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软继续保持软件之王的地位，其企业价值超过2.5 T美元。它还涉足元宇宙的企业应用。</li><li>Adobe仍然是创意软件市场无可争议的领导者。其2023年TAM为$147B，这意味着该公司可以利用巨大的机会。</li><li>我们讨论为什么这两家公司值得成为任何成长型投资者投资组合的锚定股票。</li><li>我们还讨论了现在是否是购买这两只股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Adobe Inc. (ADBE) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) are two of the most revered software leaders worldwide. Notwithstanding, MSFT is easily the bigger brother here as it boasts an enterprise value (EV) of $2.52T. In contrast, ADBE's EV is only worth $326B, as it trails the King of Software by a wide margin. Despite that, Adobe has been growing rapidly and has an exceptionally wide moat in the creative industries. It has also extended its leadership into both the B2B and B2C channels, as it leverages its huge 2023 TAM worth $147B. Therefore, there's a tremendous amount of potential growth for the creative software leader to tap.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe Inc.(ADBE)和微软公司(MSFT)是全球最受尊敬的两家软件领导者。尽管如此，MSFT无疑是这里的老大哥，因为它拥有2.52 T美元的企业价值(EV)。相比之下，ADBE的EV价值仅为$326B，远远落后于软件之王。尽管如此，Adobe一直在快速增长，并在创意行业拥有异常宽阔的护城河。它还将其领导地位扩展到B2B和B2C渠道，因为它利用了价值147B美元的巨额2023年TAM。因此，创意软件领导者有巨大的潜在增长空间可供挖掘。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, Microsoft has quickly pivoted itself towards Cloud Computing as its biggest growth driver. Under Satya Nadella's capable leadership, MSFT has transformed itself into a leading Cloud hyperscaler. Azure continues to grow its clout rapidly as it leverages MSFT's deep enterprise software applications expertise against the #1 Cloud hyperscaler AWS (AMZN). The company has also telegraphed its plans to spur its next growth phase through enterprise applications in the metaverse.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，微软已迅速将云计算作为其最大的增长动力。在Satya Nadella的干练领导下，MSFT已将自己转变为领先的云超大规模企业。Azure继续快速增长其影响力，因为它利用MSFT深厚的企业软件应用专业知识来对抗排名第一的云超大规模企业AWS(AMZN)。该公司还透露了通过元宇宙企业应用刺激下一个增长阶段的计划。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss these two software behemoths and demonstrate why both companies are very high-quality companies. As a result, we believe that both deserve to be considered anchor stocks for most growth investors' portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论这两家软件巨头，并展示为什么这两家公司都是非常优质的公司。因此，我们认为两者都值得被视为大多数成长型投资者投资组合的锚定股票。</blockquote></p><p> We also discuss whether it's an appropriate time to buy both stocks now.</p><p><blockquote>我们还讨论了现在是否是购买这两只股票的合适时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADBE Vs. MSFT Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ADBE与MSFT股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c95ae8c533f02f2af083ceee62bf9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ADBE Vs. MSFT stock YTD performance (as of 19 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ADBE与MSFT股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月19日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ADBE and MSFT stock have easily outperformed the market this year. MSFT stock is the leader here, with a YTD gain of 54.3%. While ADBE stock struggled initially in March, its upward momentum has recovered remarkably. Its YTD gain of 37.6% is well ahead of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF's (SPY) and Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 25.4% and 28.8%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>ADBE和MSFT股票今年的表现轻松跑赢市场。MSFT股票是其中的领头羊，年初至今上涨了54.3%。尽管ADBE股票在3月份最初表现不佳，但其上涨势头已显着恢复。其年初至今涨幅为37.6%，远高于SPDR标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和景顺QQQ ETF（QQQ）年初至今分别25.4%和28.8%的回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99bfbaccbc2e6a4f815d081612501c82\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ADBE Vs. MSFT stock 3Y performance (as of 19 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ADBE与MSFT股票3年表现（截至21年11月19日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As long-term leaders, we also want to evaluate their performances over a longer timeframe. On a 3Y basis, we can also easily observe their outperformance. MSFT leads with a 3Y total return of 216.8%, at a CAGR of 46.7%. It's a phenomenal return and definitely not an \"old-school\" company that MSFT detractors often point out. The market loves MSFT stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期领导者，我们也希望评估他们在更长时间内的表现。在3年的基础上，我们也可以很容易地观察到他们的优异表现。MSFT以216.8%的3年总回报率领先，复合年增长率为46.7%。这是一个惊人的回报，绝对不是MSFT批评者经常指出的“老派”公司。市场喜欢MSFT股票。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, ADBE stock has also easily beaten the market over the last three years. Its 3Y total return of 188.2%, at a CAGR of 42.1%, is also breathtaking. So both stocks have clearly and easily outperformed the market over the last three years.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，ADBE股票在过去三年中也轻松跑赢了市场。其3年总回报率为188.2%，复合年增长率为42.1%，也令人惊叹。因此，这两只股票在过去三年中的表现明显且轻松地跑赢了市场。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we consider both stocks as solid long-term leaders in any growth investor's portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为这两只股票都是任何成长型投资者投资组合中可靠的长期领导者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Both are Fast-Growing and Tremendously Profitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>两者都增长迅速且利润丰厚</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517349e87627e8e2f390deb448800ef2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软LTM收入和EBITDA利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There's little doubt that Microsoft is the world's foremost enterprise software market leader. Its last-twelve-months (LTM) revenue of $176.3B easily surpassed Adobe's LTM revenue of $15.1B. Microsoft's revenue also grew by a remarkable CAGR of 15.3% over the last three years. Moreover, its LTM EBITDA margin of 48.6% demonstrates clearly the incredible profitability of Microsoft's well-diversified business model. It has also continued to gain operating leverage impressively over the last three years. Back in FQ1'19 (September 18), its EBITDA margin was just 41.4%.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，微软是世界上最重要的企业软件市场领导者。其过去12个月(LTM)收入为$176.3 B，轻松超过Adobe的LTM收入$15.1 B。过去三年，微软的收入复合年增长率也达到了15.3%。此外，其LTM EBITDA利润率为48.6%，清楚地表明了微软多元化商业模式令人难以置信的盈利能力。在过去三年中，它还继续令人印象深刻地获得运营杠杆。早在19年第一季度（9月18日），其EBITDA利润率仅为41.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2fc577d2f36a621eaa5eb693e3bcf7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Adobe LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Adobe LTM收入和EBITDA利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e97ef4419da68ba36792ec4c26245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Computer graphics and photo editing software market share worldwide in 2021. Data source: Enlyft</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年全球计算机图形和照片编辑软件市场份额。数据来源：Enlyft</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For investors not in the creative industries, you might be unfamiliar with Adobe's suite of creative software products. Nonetheless, Adobe is the undisputed market leader in its field. Adobe's digital media segment, which forms most of our internal valuation estimates, is its critical revenue and profit driver. Its creative cloud business within Adobe's digital media segment drove 82.8% of its FQ3'21 revenue. Readers can easily observe from the chart above that the leadership of its creative suite is deeply entrenched. There are simply no close competitors.</p><p><blockquote>对于非创意行业的投资者来说，您可能不熟悉Adobe的创意软件产品套件。尽管如此，Adobe是该领域无可争议的市场领导者。Adobe的数字媒体部门构成了我们内部估值的大部分，是其关键的收入和利润驱动力。Adobe数字媒体部门的creative cloud业务占其21年第三季度收入的82.8%。读者可以很容易地从上图中观察到，其创意套件的领导地位根深蒂固。根本没有势均力敌的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> The company has also grown its revenue impressively over the last three years. Its LTM revenue of $15.1B increased at a 3Y CAGR of 20.8%. In addition, its undisputed leadership has also led to remarkable EBITDA margins. ADBE reported an LTM EBITDA margin of 40.4% in FQ3'21. In contrast, its EBITDA margin was just 36% three years ago. Hence, Adobe has continued to gain impressive operating leverage as it scales. Moreover, the company continues to tap an expanding TAM that's expected to reach $147B by 2023.</p><p><blockquote>过去三年，该公司的收入也大幅增长。其LTM收入为$15.1 B，3年复合年增长率为20.8%。此外，其无可争议的领导地位也带来了显着的EBITDA利润率。ADBE报告21年第三季度LTM EBITDA利润率为40.4%。相比之下，三年前其EBITDA利润率仅为36%。因此，随着规模的扩大，Adobe继续获得令人印象深刻的运营杠杆。此外，该公司继续利用不断扩大的TAM，预计到2023年将达到$147B。</blockquote></p><p> <b>World-Class CEOs Lead Both Companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>世界级首席执行官领导两家公司</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdce70c0fa6ed792e87198796f0d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cloud infrastructure services vendor market share as of Q3'21. Data source: Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>截至21年第三季度的云基础设施服务供应商市场份额。数据来源：Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Two top CEOs lead both companies. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella turned Microsoft back into a growth company when he took over the helm. He saw the importance of Cloud Computing and positioned Azure to compete in the Cloud infrastructure market. As a result, Azure has continued to gain share rapidly. In CQ3'21, Azure's share reached 21%, according to Canalys. Although AWS continues to be the market leader, Azure has the edge over AWS in enterprise applications which is not AWS's core competency. Moreover, Microsoft is also extending its capability into applications for the metaverse. Nadella also has a highly impressive 97% approval rating at Glassdoor.</p><p><blockquote>两位顶级首席执行官领导着两家公司。微软首席执行官纳德拉（Satya Nadella）接手掌舵后，将微软重新变成了一家成长型公司。他看到了云计算的重要性，并将Azure定位为在云基础设施市场竞争。因此，Azure继续快速获得份额。根据Canalys的数据，21年第三季度，Azure的份额达到21%。尽管AWS仍然是市场领导者，但Azure在企业应用程序方面比AWS有优势，这不是AWS的核心竞争力。此外，微软还将其能力扩展到元宇宙的应用中。纳德拉在Glassdoor上的支持率也高达97%，令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is the #2 CEO in Glassdoor's Top CEOs 2021 category. He also has a 98% approval ratings in Glassdoor. Narayen, like his Microsoft counterpart Nadella, also hails from Hyderabad, a city in India. Narayen was also instrumental in having led Adobe to transfer its offerings into the Cloud. However, a massive transformation came with short-term pain early on as the revenue recognition for subscriptions was different from its upfront revenue recognition back then.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen是Glassdoor 2021年顶级首席执行官类别中排名第二的首席执行官。他在Glassdoor中也有98%的支持率。纳拉延和他的微软同行纳德拉一样，也来自印度海得拉巴。Narayen还在带领Adobe将其产品转移到云中方面发挥了重要作用。然而，大规模转型在早期带来了短期痛苦，因为订阅的收入确认与当时的前期收入确认不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0542f034da9bbcde81eddf509fbade46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Adobe Creative & Document Cloud annual recurring revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Adobe Creative&Document Cloud年度经常性收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But, the transformation has proven so successful for Adobe. The company now boasts one of the most massive annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the SaaS business. Adobe reported an ARR of $11.66B in FQ3'21, which increased by a remarkable 3Y CAGR of 22.1%. The company also guided for an FQ4'21 ARR of $12.21B, up 20% YoY. Therefore, Adobe is expected to continue its gangbusters growth momentum.</p><p><blockquote>但是，事实证明，Adobe的转型非常成功。该公司目前拥有SaaS业务中最大的年度经常性收入(ARR)之一。Adobe报告21年第3季度的ARR为$11.66 B，3年复合年增长率显着增长22.1%。该公司还预计21年第4季度ARR为$12.21 B，同比增长20%。因此，Adobe预计将继续其强劲的增长势头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is ADBE and MSFT Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，ADBE和MSFT股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2c34259c409fb5afc7b9770deb419a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Adobe est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>土坯东部。收入和EBITDA意味着共识。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a409f2afdd0fab713f5748be78a261a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软东部。收入和EBITDA意味着共识。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Adobe is expected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 14.7% over the next five years. In addition, its EBITDA is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 15.1% over the same period. Therefore, ADBE is expected to continue growing robustly, even though its topline and profitability will decelerate.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计未来五年收入将以14.7%的复合年增长率增长。此外，其EBITDA预计同期复合年增长率为15.1%。因此，尽管ADBE的营收和盈利能力将放缓，但预计ADBE将继续强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, Microsoft is estimated to increase its revenue at a 4Y CAGR of 13.8%. However, its EBITDA is estimated to grow at a CAGR of just 6.3% over the next four years, signifying a marked slowdown in EBITDA growth. Therefore, there's a valid concern of slowing growth on both software titans, with Microsoft's looking markedly worse off.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，微软预计其收入将以13.8%的4年复合年增长率增长。然而，其EBITDA预计未来四年的复合年增长率仅为6.3%，这表明EBITDA增长明显放缓。因此，人们有理由担心这两家软件巨头的增长放缓，其中微软的情况明显更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570d068f004efa2de56f66ce506c723c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MSFT stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MSFT股票EV/Fwd EBITDA估值趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adae720194f5c03c18c5ac7b6d91e590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ADBE stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ADBE股票EV/Fwd EBITDA估值趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ADBE stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 37.4x, about 29.4% above its 3Y mean of 28.9x. Therefore, there's no question that ADBE is trading at a premium valuation. Notwithstanding, it's expected to continue gaining operating leverage remarkably, although it seems that a considerable amount of growth premium may have been priced in. But, ADBE is a solid long-term stock. I wouldn't bet against Narayen & Co.'s capability to execute immaculately moving forward. However, the current valuation is a concern for new exposure in the short term. The stock has also recovered remarkably well from its recent October bottom. Therefore, we suggest investors wait for a meaningful retracement before adding. Hence, we revise our rating to short-term Neutral but retain our long-term bullish call.</p><p><blockquote>ADBE股票目前的EV/NTM EBITDA为37.4倍，比3年平均水平28.9倍高出约29.4%。因此，毫无疑问，ADBE的交易估值较高。尽管如此，预计它将继续显着提高运营杠杆，尽管相当大的增长溢价似乎已经被定价。但是，ADBE是一只稳健的长期股票。我不会打赌Narayen&Co.有能力完美地向前推进。然而，目前的估值是短期内新敞口的担忧。该股也从最近10月份的底部恢复得非常好。因此，我们建议投资者等待有意义的回撤后再加仓。因此，我们将评级调整为短期中性，但保留长期看涨的看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> MSFT stock is trading at an EV/Fwd EBITDA of 25.1x, against its 3Y mean of 19.2x. Even though MSFT is still expected to grow its topline reasonably fast, its EBITDA growth is expected to decelerate markedly. Therefore, MSFT stock's valuation seems to have priced in a significant amount of growth premium over the next few years. As such, we remain very cautious about adding MSFT stock at this level. Consequently, we retain our Neutral rating on MSFT stock.</p><p><blockquote>MSFT股票的EV/Fwd EBITDA为25.1倍，而3年平均值为19.2倍。尽管MSFT的营收预计仍将相当快地增长，但其EBITDA增长预计将显着减速。因此，MSFT股票的估值似乎已经反映了未来几年的大量增长溢价。因此，我们对在这个水平上增持MSFT股票仍然非常谨慎。因此，我们维持对MSFT股票的中性评级。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we would like to remind investors that both stocks are two of the best anchor growth stocks that investors can continue to hold if you own them. Therefore, if there's a meaningful retracement moving forward, we encourage you to add more exposure to either of them.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们还是想提醒投资者，这两只股票都是投资者可以继续持有的最好的锚定成长股中的两只。因此，如果未来出现有意义的回撤，我们鼓励您增加对其中任何一个的敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471088-adobe-vs-microsoft-stock-two-long-term-leaders-to-dominate-the-software-space\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471088-adobe-vs-microsoft-stock-two-long-term-leaders-to-dominate-the-software-space","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159890392","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T. It's also making forays into enterprise applications for the metaverse.\nAdobe continues to be the undisputed leader in the creative software market. Its 2023 TAM of $147B signifies huge opportunities for the company to leverage.\nWe discuss why both companies deserve to be anchor stocks for any growth investor's portfolio.\nWe also discuss whether it's a good time to buy both stocks now.\n\nJean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAdobe Inc. (ADBE) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) are two of the most revered software leaders worldwide. Notwithstanding, MSFT is easily the bigger brother here as it boasts an enterprise value (EV) of $2.52T. In contrast, ADBE's EV is only worth $326B, as it trails the King of Software by a wide margin. Despite that, Adobe has been growing rapidly and has an exceptionally wide moat in the creative industries. It has also extended its leadership into both the B2B and B2C channels, as it leverages its huge 2023 TAM worth $147B. Therefore, there's a tremendous amount of potential growth for the creative software leader to tap.\nOn the other hand, Microsoft has quickly pivoted itself towards Cloud Computing as its biggest growth driver. Under Satya Nadella's capable leadership, MSFT has transformed itself into a leading Cloud hyperscaler. Azure continues to grow its clout rapidly as it leverages MSFT's deep enterprise software applications expertise against the #1 Cloud hyperscaler AWS (AMZN). The company has also telegraphed its plans to spur its next growth phase through enterprise applications in the metaverse.\nWe discuss these two software behemoths and demonstrate why both companies are very high-quality companies. As a result, we believe that both deserve to be considered anchor stocks for most growth investors' portfolios.\nWe also discuss whether it's an appropriate time to buy both stocks now.\nADBE Vs. MSFT Stock YTD Performance\nADBE Vs. MSFT stock YTD performance (as of 19 November 21).\nADBE and MSFT stock have easily outperformed the market this year. MSFT stock is the leader here, with a YTD gain of 54.3%. While ADBE stock struggled initially in March, its upward momentum has recovered remarkably. Its YTD gain of 37.6% is well ahead of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF's (SPY) and Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 25.4% and 28.8%, respectively.\nADBE Vs. MSFT stock 3Y performance (as of 19 November 21).\nAs long-term leaders, we also want to evaluate their performances over a longer timeframe. On a 3Y basis, we can also easily observe their outperformance. MSFT leads with a 3Y total return of 216.8%, at a CAGR of 46.7%. It's a phenomenal return and definitely not an \"old-school\" company that MSFT detractors often point out. The market loves MSFT stock.\nOn the other hand, ADBE stock has also easily beaten the market over the last three years. Its 3Y total return of 188.2%, at a CAGR of 42.1%, is also breathtaking. So both stocks have clearly and easily outperformed the market over the last three years.\nTherefore, we consider both stocks as solid long-term leaders in any growth investor's portfolio.\nBoth are Fast-Growing and Tremendously Profitable\nMicrosoft LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThere's little doubt that Microsoft is the world's foremost enterprise software market leader. Its last-twelve-months (LTM) revenue of $176.3B easily surpassed Adobe's LTM revenue of $15.1B. Microsoft's revenue also grew by a remarkable CAGR of 15.3% over the last three years. Moreover, its LTM EBITDA margin of 48.6% demonstrates clearly the incredible profitability of Microsoft's well-diversified business model. It has also continued to gain operating leverage impressively over the last three years. Back in FQ1'19 (September 18), its EBITDA margin was just 41.4%.\nAdobe LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nComputer graphics and photo editing software market share worldwide in 2021. Data source: Enlyft\nFor investors not in the creative industries, you might be unfamiliar with Adobe's suite of creative software products. Nonetheless, Adobe is the undisputed market leader in its field. Adobe's digital media segment, which forms most of our internal valuation estimates, is its critical revenue and profit driver. Its creative cloud business within Adobe's digital media segment drove 82.8% of its FQ3'21 revenue. Readers can easily observe from the chart above that the leadership of its creative suite is deeply entrenched. There are simply no close competitors.\nThe company has also grown its revenue impressively over the last three years. Its LTM revenue of $15.1B increased at a 3Y CAGR of 20.8%. In addition, its undisputed leadership has also led to remarkable EBITDA margins. ADBE reported an LTM EBITDA margin of 40.4% in FQ3'21. In contrast, its EBITDA margin was just 36% three years ago. Hence, Adobe has continued to gain impressive operating leverage as it scales. Moreover, the company continues to tap an expanding TAM that's expected to reach $147B by 2023.\nWorld-Class CEOs Lead Both Companies\nCloud infrastructure services vendor market share as of Q3'21. Data source: Canalys\nTwo top CEOs lead both companies. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella turned Microsoft back into a growth company when he took over the helm. He saw the importance of Cloud Computing and positioned Azure to compete in the Cloud infrastructure market. As a result, Azure has continued to gain share rapidly. In CQ3'21, Azure's share reached 21%, according to Canalys. Although AWS continues to be the market leader, Azure has the edge over AWS in enterprise applications which is not AWS's core competency. Moreover, Microsoft is also extending its capability into applications for the metaverse. Nadella also has a highly impressive 97% approval rating at Glassdoor.\nAdobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is the #2 CEO in Glassdoor's Top CEOs 2021 category. He also has a 98% approval ratings in Glassdoor. Narayen, like his Microsoft counterpart Nadella, also hails from Hyderabad, a city in India. Narayen was also instrumental in having led Adobe to transfer its offerings into the Cloud. However, a massive transformation came with short-term pain early on as the revenue recognition for subscriptions was different from its upfront revenue recognition back then.\nAdobe Creative & Document Cloud annual recurring revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBut, the transformation has proven so successful for Adobe. The company now boasts one of the most massive annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the SaaS business. Adobe reported an ARR of $11.66B in FQ3'21, which increased by a remarkable 3Y CAGR of 22.1%. The company also guided for an FQ4'21 ARR of $12.21B, up 20% YoY. Therefore, Adobe is expected to continue its gangbusters growth momentum.\nSo, is ADBE and MSFT Stock a Buy Now?\nAdobe est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nMicrosoft est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nAdobe is expected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 14.7% over the next five years. In addition, its EBITDA is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 15.1% over the same period. Therefore, ADBE is expected to continue growing robustly, even though its topline and profitability will decelerate.\nIn contrast, Microsoft is estimated to increase its revenue at a 4Y CAGR of 13.8%. However, its EBITDA is estimated to grow at a CAGR of just 6.3% over the next four years, signifying a marked slowdown in EBITDA growth. Therefore, there's a valid concern of slowing growth on both software titans, with Microsoft's looking markedly worse off.\nMSFT stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nADBE stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nADBE stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 37.4x, about 29.4% above its 3Y mean of 28.9x. Therefore, there's no question that ADBE is trading at a premium valuation. Notwithstanding, it's expected to continue gaining operating leverage remarkably, although it seems that a considerable amount of growth premium may have been priced in. But, ADBE is a solid long-term stock. I wouldn't bet against Narayen & Co.'s capability to execute immaculately moving forward. However, the current valuation is a concern for new exposure in the short term. The stock has also recovered remarkably well from its recent October bottom. Therefore, we suggest investors wait for a meaningful retracement before adding. Hence, we revise our rating to short-term Neutral but retain our long-term bullish call.\nMSFT stock is trading at an EV/Fwd EBITDA of 25.1x, against its 3Y mean of 19.2x. Even though MSFT is still expected to grow its topline reasonably fast, its EBITDA growth is expected to decelerate markedly. Therefore, MSFT stock's valuation seems to have priced in a significant amount of growth premium over the next few years. As such, we remain very cautious about adding MSFT stock at this level. Consequently, we retain our Neutral rating on MSFT stock.\nNevertheless, we would like to remind investors that both stocks are two of the best anchor growth stocks that investors can continue to hold if you own them. Therefore, if there's a meaningful retracement moving forward, we encourage you to add more exposure to either of them.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/872489987"}
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