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2021-11-19
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Fastly: Still Remaining On The Sidelines For Now<blockquote>Fastly：目前仍保持观望</blockquote>
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The stock has traded down around 15% since the company's earnings release, though continues to trade at a premium 17x forward revenue multiple.</p><p><blockquote>Fastly(FSLY)公布了良好的第三季度收益，收入超出预期，尽管调整后EBITDA和自由现金流为负继续引发人们对长期盈利能力的质疑。自该公司发布财报以来，该股的交易价格已下跌约15%，但其交易价格仍较预期收入高出17倍。</blockquote></p><p> Management also provided guidance for Q4 which seemed a little soft compared to expectations. On top of that, their $1 billion revenue target by 2025 seems positive at face value and represents a 30% growth CAGR, though they did acknowledge that some growth could come from M&A, meaning organic growth might be lower than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>管理层还提供了第四季度的指引，与预期相比似乎有些疲软。最重要的是，他们到2025年10亿美元的收入目标从表面上看似乎是积极的，代表着30%的复合年增长率，尽管他们确实承认一些增长可能来自并购，这意味着有机增长可能低于30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb02c16fe105dbc0c38553ce010703d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the growth prospects have improved, I still remain on the sidelines and wait for a better entry point. I believe there remains execution risk to the growth story and even though the $1 billion revenue target seems positive, I believe investors will turn their focus towards profitability and the potential need to tap the debt and/or equity markets to fund growth given their negative free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>虽然增长前景有所改善，但我仍然保持观望，等待更好的切入点。我认为增长故事仍然存在执行风险，尽管10亿美元的收入目标似乎是积极的，但我相信投资者将把注意力转向盈利能力，以及鉴于其负自由现金流，利用债务和/或股票市场为增长提供资金的潜在需求。</blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about FSLY in mid-September when the stock was trading around $45 and noted a better entry point would be below $40. Since then, the stock has been quite volatile, yet we are still around the same $45 level.</p><p><blockquote>我上次撰写有关FSLY的文章是在9月中旬，当时该股的交易价格约为45美元，并指出更好的切入点是低于40美元。自那以后，该股波动很大，但我们仍在45美元的水平附近。</blockquote></p><p> Fastly operates a CDN (content delivery network). In other words, that have a network of services and data centers globally distributed that makes it easier for consumers to access faster internet. Through their edge cloud platform, FSLY's infrastructure is closer to the consumer's desired destination, which increases internet response times and can reduce latency.</p><p><blockquote>Fastly运营CDN（内容交付网络）。换句话说，它拥有一个分布在全球的服务和数据中心网络，这使得消费者更容易访问更快的互联网。通过他们的边缘云平台，FSLY的基础设施更接近消费者所需的目的地，这增加了互联网响应时间并减少了延迟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Financial Review</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期财务回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Revenue during Q3 grew 23% to $87 million, which came in just over $3 million above expectations for $83-84 million. Even though revenue had nearly $1 million impact from some write-downs associated with their Signal Sciences acquisition, growth was still pretty strong.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度收入增长23%，达到8700万美元，比预期的83-8400万美元高出300万美元多一点。尽管与收购Signal Sciences相关的一些减记对收入产生了近100万美元的影响，但增长仍然相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company's adjusted EBITDA loss came in around $5.4 million, which was much worse than the profit of $0.8 million last year. It also should be noted that within adjusted EBITDA, the company is adding back a lot of stock compensation, to the tune of $36.6 million during the quarter. On a GAAP basis, the company's net loss was over $56 million.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司调整后的EBITDA亏损约为540万美元，远低于去年80万美元的利润。还应该指出的是，在调整后的EBITDA中，该公司增加了大量股票补偿，本季度达到3660万美元。按公认会计准则计算，该公司的净亏损超过5600万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, investors are still more focused around the company's revenue growth potential, which I will discuss later on, but eventually FSLY will need to demonstrate a path towards consistent profitability.</p><p><blockquote>是的，投资者仍然更关注公司的收入增长潜力，我稍后将讨论这一点，但最终FSLY需要展示一条实现持续盈利的道路。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec467a66d0ab95e9501098d2063b3a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"82\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even when looking at the company's free cash flow metrics, only once in the past 7+ quarters have been positive. The cash burn rate remains quite large and eventually we could see the company tap the debt and/or equity market for additional liquidity.</p><p><blockquote>即使查看该公司的自由现金流指标，在过去7个多季度中也只有一次是正值。现金消耗率仍然相当大，最终我们可能会看到该公司利用债务和/或股票市场来获得额外的流动性。</blockquote></p><p> With almost $1.1 billion of cash and marketable securities combined with over $900 million of long-term debt, the company is sitting on just $200 million of net cash.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有近11亿美元的现金和有价证券，加上超过9亿美元的长期债务，净现金仅为2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the company continues to expand their enterprise customer base, which reached 430 customers during the quarter. Net retention rate was 112%, which improved quite a bit from the 93% reported in the year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的方面来看，该公司继续扩大其企业客户群，本季度客户数量达到430家。净保留率为112%，较去年同期的93%有较大提高。</blockquote></p><p> However, when we look at a dollar-based net expansion rate, this came in at 118% during the quarter, down from 126% last quarter. Yes, this metric remains well above 100%, which signals continued strong growth, but the sequential slowdown may wave a slight caution flag for some investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我们以美元计算的净增长率时，本季度的净增长率为118%，低于上季度的126%。是的，这一指标仍远高于100%，这表明增长持续强劲，但连续放缓可能会给一些投资者带来轻微的谨慎信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/056d4f1c73e976c2174327ad0c8ea5a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Management provided guidance for Q4 which came in a little light of expectations. Revenue is expected to be $90-93 million and was a little below consensus expectations of $94.5 million. Also, non-GAAP operating loss is expected to be $15-18 million.</p><p><blockquote>管理层为第四季度提供了指引，略低于预期。收入预计为90-9300万美元，略低于普遍预期的9450万美元。此外，非GAAP运营亏损预计为15-1800万美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the company talked about their $1 billion revenue goal by 2025. Optically, it sounds great to say the company is going to generate $1 billion of revenue. Looking at little further into this, $1 billion of revenue would represent a growth CAGR of ~30% for the next four years. Yes, this is a very strong growth rate, but the stock's valuation is already pricing in high expectations.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，该公司谈到了到2025年实现10亿美元的收入目标。从视觉上看，说该公司将产生10亿美元的收入听起来很棒。进一步研究一下，10亿美元的收入将意味着未来四年的复合年增长率约为30%。是的，这是一个非常强劲的增长率，但该股的估值已经反映了高预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Recent Updates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他近期更新</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in June, the company went through a widely publicized service outage that resulted in the company issuing credit to customers, the slowdown of existing traffic expansion, and the loss of a top 10 customer. Rumors also surfaced that Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)stopped using Fastly's services after the outage and it seems like the service outage impacts continue to weigh on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>早在6月份，该公司就经历了一次广为人知的服务中断，导致该公司向客户发放信贷，现有流量扩张放缓，并失去了一名前10名客户。还有传言称，亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）在停电后停止使用Fastly的服务，服务停电的影响似乎继续对该股造成压力。</blockquote></p><p> During the conference call,management was asked about the extent to which traffic volumes have started to come back from some of these larger clients.</p><p><blockquote>在电话会议期间，管理层被问及其中一些较大客户的客流量在多大程度上开始恢复。</blockquote></p><p> So I think, as we've said, the top customer didn't return traffic, they returned to traffic. They do continue to ramp. The larger customers, when they come back, typically ramp their traffic back over time. I don't have a specific timeline, but they are back and that will increase over time. So while the traffic continues to ramp, it seems like it could take several quarters for the traffic to fully come back, that is if Amazon (or other larger clients) wants to come back to FSLY.</p><p><blockquote>所以我认为，正如我们所说，顶级客户没有返回流量，他们返回了流量。他们确实在继续上升。当较大的客户回来时，通常会随着时间的推移增加他们的流量。我没有一个具体的时间表，但他们回来了，而且会随着时间的推移而增加。因此，虽然流量继续增加，但如果亚马逊（或其他更大的客户）想要回到FSLY，流量似乎需要几个季度才能完全恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f894336d393079f47e887e7418627c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CDN Traffic Share</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：CDN流量份额</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When looking at CDN Traffic Share, it continues to seem like Fastly has permanently lost a good chunk of their Amazon business. The charts above show the past 30-day CDN usage of Amazon, with the two primary resources being Amazon CloudFront and Akamai(NASDAQ:AKAM). Yes, Fastly is still seeing some traffic flow through their system, but they remain third on the totem pole and may have a long pathway back towards becoming a primary provider.</p><p><blockquote>从CDN流量份额来看，Fastly似乎已经永久失去了很大一部分亚马逊业务。上面的图表显示了亚马逊过去30天的CDN使用情况，两个主要资源是Amazon CloudFront和Akamai（纳斯达克：AKAM）。是的，Fastly仍然看到一些流量通过他们的系统，但他们仍然在图腾柱上排名第三，可能还有很长的路要走才能成为主要提供商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Given the volatile news flow over the past several months, we have seen the stock trade in quite a volatile fashion, with +/- 3% days seemingly becoming the natural stock movement. Since reporting earnings, the stock has been down around 15% and remains well below their previous all-time high around $125.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去几个月不稳定的消息流，我们已经看到股票交易以相当不稳定的方式进行，+/-3%的天数似乎成为股票的自然走势。自公布财报以来，该股已下跌约15%，仍远低于之前125美元左右的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> The volatility does provide some interesting entry points for investors to make short-term money, however, I continue to believe there remains some execution risk to the stock. I have long-term confidence in the company's edge platform, but I believe valuation fully reflects long-term confidence, and investors should approach with caution.</p><p><blockquote>波动性确实为投资者提供了一些有趣的短期赚钱切入点，但是，我仍然认为该股仍然存在一些执行风险。我对公司的边缘平台有长期信心，但我认为估值充分反映了长期信心，投资者应谨慎接近。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e487598a9a605d8dce902692a2f9ceb1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With a current market cap of $5.3 billion and net cash of $200 million, this results in the company having an enterprise value of $5.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>目前市值为53亿美元，净现金为2亿美元，这使得该公司的企业价值为51亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did provide a 2025 revenue target of $1 billion, we can start to view valuation in a few different ways.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司确实提供了2025年10亿美元的收入目标，但我们可以开始以几种不同的方式看待估值。</blockquote></p><p> First, if we assume the stock will trade at a 10x forward revenue multiple at the end of 2024 and by using the company's $1 billion revenue target, this could imply an enterprise value of $10 billion by the end of 2024. Given that we are already near the end of 2021, this would imply enterprise value growing at a ~25% CAGR through 2024.</p><p><blockquote>首先，如果我们假设该股到2024年底的预期收入倍数为10倍，并使用该公司10亿美元的收入目标，这可能意味着到2024年底企业价值将达到100亿美元。鉴于我们已经接近2021年底，这意味着到2024年，企业价值将以约25%的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, this valuation method is a little challenging because in a few years, revenue growth may be below the 30% CAGR that is expected through 2025. Thus, if the company is only growing 20-25% (and assuming profitability has significantly improved), then maybe the multiple is only 8-9x forward revenue, which would imply an enterprise value growth CAGR of ~15-20% for the next few years. That's still a solid return, but at current valuation, it does not leave much room for error.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这种估值方法有点挑战性，因为几年后，收入增长可能会低于预计到2025年的30%复合年增长率。因此，如果公司仅增长20-25%（假设盈利能力显着提高），那么该倍数可能仅为预期收入的8-9倍，这意味着未来企业价值复合年增长率约为15-20%几年。这仍然是一个稳定的回报，但以目前的估值来看，它没有留下太多的误差空间。</blockquote></p><p> Another way to view valuation could be the following. Part of the $1 billion of revenue by 2025 could come from inorganic contributions, thus, the company's valuation multiple should better reflect their organic growth rate. By adding acquisitions to the equation and assuming a lower organic growth, we can still get to the company's ~30% revenue growth CAGR, but maybe the forward revenue multiple pulls back towards 5-8x. In addition, this forward revenue multiple would assume a significant expansion in profitability margins and positive free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>另一种看待估值的方式可能如下。到2025年，10亿美元收入的一部分可能来自无机贡献，因此，该公司的估值倍数应该更好地反映其有机增长率。通过将收购添加到等式中并假设较低的有机增长，我们仍然可以实现该公司约30%的收入增长复合年增长率，但远期收入倍数可能会回落至5-8倍。此外，这一远期收入倍数将假设利润率显着扩大和正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Under this scenario, we could see the stock's enterprise value grow at 10%+ CAGR over the next few years, which does not seem overly attractive considering the current valuation and embedded execution risks.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我们可能会看到该股的企业价值在未来几年以10%以上的复合年增长率增长，考虑到当前的估值和内在的执行风险，这似乎并没有太大的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently trades just under 17x forward revenue as investors have confidence in the long-term trajectory. However, I continue to remain on the sidelines for now and the stock already is pricing in a strong rebound. I think a better entry point would be under $40.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对长期发展轨迹充满信心，该股目前的预期收益略低于17倍。然而，我目前继续保持观望，该股已经预计将强劲反弹。我认为更好的切入点应该在40美元以下。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fastly: Still Remaining On The Sidelines For Now<blockquote>Fastly：目前仍保持观望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFastly: Still Remaining On The Sidelines For Now<blockquote>Fastly：目前仍保持观望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-19 20:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Fastly reported a better-than-expected Q3, though continued adjusted EBITDA losses and negative free cash flow are starting to drain the company's liquidity.</li> <li>Management provided weaker-than-expected Q4 guidance, though the $1 billion revenue target by 2025 optically looks nice.</li> <li>Valuation seems to be pricing in strong growth over the coming years, and at 17x forward revenue, I remain on the sidelines waiting for a better entry point.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/142c5f2c4a4ce915516d1e3e32c7b9d2\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Leon Neal/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Fastly公布的第三季度业绩好于预期，尽管持续的调整后EBITDA亏损和负自由现金流开始耗尽公司的流动性。</li><li>尽管到2025年10亿美元的收入目标看起来不错，但管理层提供的第四季度指引弱于预期。</li><li>估值似乎反映了未来几年的强劲增长，在预期收入17倍的情况下，我仍处于观望状态，等待更好的切入点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>莱昂·尼尔/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Fastly (FSLY) reported a good Q3 earnings with revenue above expectations, though the negative adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow continue to place questions around longer-term profitability. The stock has traded down around 15% since the company's earnings release, though continues to trade at a premium 17x forward revenue multiple.</p><p><blockquote>Fastly(FSLY)公布了良好的第三季度收益，收入超出预期，尽管调整后EBITDA和自由现金流为负继续引发人们对长期盈利能力的质疑。自该公司发布财报以来，该股的交易价格已下跌约15%，但其交易价格仍较预期收入高出17倍。</blockquote></p><p> Management also provided guidance for Q4 which seemed a little soft compared to expectations. On top of that, their $1 billion revenue target by 2025 seems positive at face value and represents a 30% growth CAGR, though they did acknowledge that some growth could come from M&A, meaning organic growth might be lower than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>管理层还提供了第四季度的指引，与预期相比似乎有些疲软。最重要的是，他们到2025年10亿美元的收入目标从表面上看似乎是积极的，代表着30%的复合年增长率，尽管他们确实承认一些增长可能来自并购，这意味着有机增长可能低于30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb02c16fe105dbc0c38553ce010703d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the growth prospects have improved, I still remain on the sidelines and wait for a better entry point. I believe there remains execution risk to the growth story and even though the $1 billion revenue target seems positive, I believe investors will turn their focus towards profitability and the potential need to tap the debt and/or equity markets to fund growth given their negative free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>虽然增长前景有所改善，但我仍然保持观望，等待更好的切入点。我认为增长故事仍然存在执行风险，尽管10亿美元的收入目标似乎是积极的，但我相信投资者将把注意力转向盈利能力，以及鉴于其负自由现金流，利用债务和/或股票市场为增长提供资金的潜在需求。</blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about FSLY in mid-September when the stock was trading around $45 and noted a better entry point would be below $40. Since then, the stock has been quite volatile, yet we are still around the same $45 level.</p><p><blockquote>我上次撰写有关FSLY的文章是在9月中旬，当时该股的交易价格约为45美元，并指出更好的切入点是低于40美元。自那以后，该股波动很大，但我们仍在45美元的水平附近。</blockquote></p><p> Fastly operates a CDN (content delivery network). In other words, that have a network of services and data centers globally distributed that makes it easier for consumers to access faster internet. Through their edge cloud platform, FSLY's infrastructure is closer to the consumer's desired destination, which increases internet response times and can reduce latency.</p><p><blockquote>Fastly运营CDN（内容交付网络）。换句话说，它拥有一个分布在全球的服务和数据中心网络，这使得消费者更容易访问更快的互联网。通过他们的边缘云平台，FSLY的基础设施更接近消费者所需的目的地，这增加了互联网响应时间并减少了延迟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Financial Review</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期财务回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Revenue during Q3 grew 23% to $87 million, which came in just over $3 million above expectations for $83-84 million. Even though revenue had nearly $1 million impact from some write-downs associated with their Signal Sciences acquisition, growth was still pretty strong.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度收入增长23%，达到8700万美元，比预期的83-8400万美元高出300万美元多一点。尽管与收购Signal Sciences相关的一些减记对收入产生了近100万美元的影响，但增长仍然相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company's adjusted EBITDA loss came in around $5.4 million, which was much worse than the profit of $0.8 million last year. It also should be noted that within adjusted EBITDA, the company is adding back a lot of stock compensation, to the tune of $36.6 million during the quarter. On a GAAP basis, the company's net loss was over $56 million.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司调整后的EBITDA亏损约为540万美元，远低于去年80万美元的利润。还应该指出的是，在调整后的EBITDA中，该公司增加了大量股票补偿，本季度达到3660万美元。按公认会计准则计算，该公司的净亏损超过5600万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, investors are still more focused around the company's revenue growth potential, which I will discuss later on, but eventually FSLY will need to demonstrate a path towards consistent profitability.</p><p><blockquote>是的，投资者仍然更关注公司的收入增长潜力，我稍后将讨论这一点，但最终FSLY需要展示一条实现持续盈利的道路。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec467a66d0ab95e9501098d2063b3a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"82\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even when looking at the company's free cash flow metrics, only once in the past 7+ quarters have been positive. The cash burn rate remains quite large and eventually we could see the company tap the debt and/or equity market for additional liquidity.</p><p><blockquote>即使查看该公司的自由现金流指标，在过去7个多季度中也只有一次是正值。现金消耗率仍然相当大，最终我们可能会看到该公司利用债务和/或股票市场来获得额外的流动性。</blockquote></p><p> With almost $1.1 billion of cash and marketable securities combined with over $900 million of long-term debt, the company is sitting on just $200 million of net cash.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有近11亿美元的现金和有价证券，加上超过9亿美元的长期债务，净现金仅为2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the company continues to expand their enterprise customer base, which reached 430 customers during the quarter. Net retention rate was 112%, which improved quite a bit from the 93% reported in the year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的方面来看，该公司继续扩大其企业客户群，本季度客户数量达到430家。净保留率为112%，较去年同期的93%有较大提高。</blockquote></p><p> However, when we look at a dollar-based net expansion rate, this came in at 118% during the quarter, down from 126% last quarter. Yes, this metric remains well above 100%, which signals continued strong growth, but the sequential slowdown may wave a slight caution flag for some investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我们以美元计算的净增长率时，本季度的净增长率为118%，低于上季度的126%。是的，这一指标仍远高于100%，这表明增长持续强劲，但连续放缓可能会给一些投资者带来轻微的谨慎信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/056d4f1c73e976c2174327ad0c8ea5a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Management provided guidance for Q4 which came in a little light of expectations. Revenue is expected to be $90-93 million and was a little below consensus expectations of $94.5 million. Also, non-GAAP operating loss is expected to be $15-18 million.</p><p><blockquote>管理层为第四季度提供了指引，略低于预期。收入预计为90-9300万美元，略低于普遍预期的9450万美元。此外，非GAAP运营亏损预计为15-1800万美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the company talked about their $1 billion revenue goal by 2025. Optically, it sounds great to say the company is going to generate $1 billion of revenue. Looking at little further into this, $1 billion of revenue would represent a growth CAGR of ~30% for the next four years. Yes, this is a very strong growth rate, but the stock's valuation is already pricing in high expectations.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，该公司谈到了到2025年实现10亿美元的收入目标。从视觉上看，说该公司将产生10亿美元的收入听起来很棒。进一步研究一下，10亿美元的收入将意味着未来四年的复合年增长率约为30%。是的，这是一个非常强劲的增长率，但该股的估值已经反映了高预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Recent Updates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他近期更新</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in June, the company went through a widely publicized service outage that resulted in the company issuing credit to customers, the slowdown of existing traffic expansion, and the loss of a top 10 customer. Rumors also surfaced that Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)stopped using Fastly's services after the outage and it seems like the service outage impacts continue to weigh on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>早在6月份，该公司就经历了一次广为人知的服务中断，导致该公司向客户发放信贷，现有流量扩张放缓，并失去了一名前10名客户。还有传言称，亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）在停电后停止使用Fastly的服务，服务停电的影响似乎继续对该股造成压力。</blockquote></p><p> During the conference call,management was asked about the extent to which traffic volumes have started to come back from some of these larger clients.</p><p><blockquote>在电话会议期间，管理层被问及其中一些较大客户的客流量在多大程度上开始恢复。</blockquote></p><p> So I think, as we've said, the top customer didn't return traffic, they returned to traffic. They do continue to ramp. The larger customers, when they come back, typically ramp their traffic back over time. I don't have a specific timeline, but they are back and that will increase over time. So while the traffic continues to ramp, it seems like it could take several quarters for the traffic to fully come back, that is if Amazon (or other larger clients) wants to come back to FSLY.</p><p><blockquote>所以我认为，正如我们所说，顶级客户没有返回流量，他们返回了流量。他们确实在继续上升。当较大的客户回来时，通常会随着时间的推移增加他们的流量。我没有一个具体的时间表，但他们回来了，而且会随着时间的推移而增加。因此，虽然流量继续增加，但如果亚马逊（或其他更大的客户）想要回到FSLY，流量似乎需要几个季度才能完全恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f894336d393079f47e887e7418627c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CDN Traffic Share</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：CDN流量份额</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When looking at CDN Traffic Share, it continues to seem like Fastly has permanently lost a good chunk of their Amazon business. The charts above show the past 30-day CDN usage of Amazon, with the two primary resources being Amazon CloudFront and Akamai(NASDAQ:AKAM). Yes, Fastly is still seeing some traffic flow through their system, but they remain third on the totem pole and may have a long pathway back towards becoming a primary provider.</p><p><blockquote>从CDN流量份额来看，Fastly似乎已经永久失去了很大一部分亚马逊业务。上面的图表显示了亚马逊过去30天的CDN使用情况，两个主要资源是Amazon CloudFront和Akamai（纳斯达克：AKAM）。是的，Fastly仍然看到一些流量通过他们的系统，但他们仍然在图腾柱上排名第三，可能还有很长的路要走才能成为主要提供商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Given the volatile news flow over the past several months, we have seen the stock trade in quite a volatile fashion, with +/- 3% days seemingly becoming the natural stock movement. Since reporting earnings, the stock has been down around 15% and remains well below their previous all-time high around $125.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去几个月不稳定的消息流，我们已经看到股票交易以相当不稳定的方式进行，+/-3%的天数似乎成为股票的自然走势。自公布财报以来，该股已下跌约15%，仍远低于之前125美元左右的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> The volatility does provide some interesting entry points for investors to make short-term money, however, I continue to believe there remains some execution risk to the stock. I have long-term confidence in the company's edge platform, but I believe valuation fully reflects long-term confidence, and investors should approach with caution.</p><p><blockquote>波动性确实为投资者提供了一些有趣的短期赚钱切入点，但是，我仍然认为该股仍然存在一些执行风险。我对公司的边缘平台有长期信心，但我认为估值充分反映了长期信心，投资者应谨慎接近。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e487598a9a605d8dce902692a2f9ceb1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With a current market cap of $5.3 billion and net cash of $200 million, this results in the company having an enterprise value of $5.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>目前市值为53亿美元，净现金为2亿美元，这使得该公司的企业价值为51亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did provide a 2025 revenue target of $1 billion, we can start to view valuation in a few different ways.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司确实提供了2025年10亿美元的收入目标，但我们可以开始以几种不同的方式看待估值。</blockquote></p><p> First, if we assume the stock will trade at a 10x forward revenue multiple at the end of 2024 and by using the company's $1 billion revenue target, this could imply an enterprise value of $10 billion by the end of 2024. Given that we are already near the end of 2021, this would imply enterprise value growing at a ~25% CAGR through 2024.</p><p><blockquote>首先，如果我们假设该股到2024年底的预期收入倍数为10倍，并使用该公司10亿美元的收入目标，这可能意味着到2024年底企业价值将达到100亿美元。鉴于我们已经接近2021年底，这意味着到2024年，企业价值将以约25%的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, this valuation method is a little challenging because in a few years, revenue growth may be below the 30% CAGR that is expected through 2025. Thus, if the company is only growing 20-25% (and assuming profitability has significantly improved), then maybe the multiple is only 8-9x forward revenue, which would imply an enterprise value growth CAGR of ~15-20% for the next few years. That's still a solid return, but at current valuation, it does not leave much room for error.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这种估值方法有点挑战性，因为几年后，收入增长可能会低于预计到2025年的30%复合年增长率。因此，如果公司仅增长20-25%（假设盈利能力显着提高），那么该倍数可能仅为预期收入的8-9倍，这意味着未来企业价值复合年增长率约为15-20%几年。这仍然是一个稳定的回报，但以目前的估值来看，它没有留下太多的误差空间。</blockquote></p><p> Another way to view valuation could be the following. Part of the $1 billion of revenue by 2025 could come from inorganic contributions, thus, the company's valuation multiple should better reflect their organic growth rate. By adding acquisitions to the equation and assuming a lower organic growth, we can still get to the company's ~30% revenue growth CAGR, but maybe the forward revenue multiple pulls back towards 5-8x. In addition, this forward revenue multiple would assume a significant expansion in profitability margins and positive free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>另一种看待估值的方式可能如下。到2025年，10亿美元收入的一部分可能来自无机贡献，因此，该公司的估值倍数应该更好地反映其有机增长率。通过将收购添加到等式中并假设较低的有机增长，我们仍然可以实现该公司约30%的收入增长复合年增长率，但远期收入倍数可能会回落至5-8倍。此外，这一远期收入倍数将假设利润率显着扩大和正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Under this scenario, we could see the stock's enterprise value grow at 10%+ CAGR over the next few years, which does not seem overly attractive considering the current valuation and embedded execution risks.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我们可能会看到该股的企业价值在未来几年以10%以上的复合年增长率增长，考虑到当前的估值和内在的执行风险，这似乎并没有太大的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently trades just under 17x forward revenue as investors have confidence in the long-term trajectory. However, I continue to remain on the sidelines for now and the stock already is pricing in a strong rebound. I think a better entry point would be under $40.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对长期发展轨迹充满信心，该股目前的预期收益略低于17倍。然而，我目前继续保持观望，该股已经预计将强劲反弹。我认为更好的切入点应该在40美元以下。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470745-fastly-fsly-stock-on-the-sidelines-for-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSLY":"Fastly, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470745-fastly-fsly-stock-on-the-sidelines-for-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150650904","content_text":"Summary\n\nFastly reported a better-than-expected Q3, though continued adjusted EBITDA losses and negative free cash flow are starting to drain the company's liquidity.\nManagement provided weaker-than-expected Q4 guidance, though the $1 billion revenue target by 2025 optically looks nice.\nValuation seems to be pricing in strong growth over the coming years, and at 17x forward revenue, I remain on the sidelines waiting for a better entry point.\n\nLeon Neal/Getty Images News\nFastly (FSLY) reported a good Q3 earnings with revenue above expectations, though the negative adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow continue to place questions around longer-term profitability. The stock has traded down around 15% since the company's earnings release, though continues to trade at a premium 17x forward revenue multiple.\nManagement also provided guidance for Q4 which seemed a little soft compared to expectations. On top of that, their $1 billion revenue target by 2025 seems positive at face value and represents a 30% growth CAGR, though they did acknowledge that some growth could come from M&A, meaning organic growth might be lower than 30%.\nData by YCharts\nWhile the growth prospects have improved, I still remain on the sidelines and wait for a better entry point. I believe there remains execution risk to the growth story and even though the $1 billion revenue target seems positive, I believe investors will turn their focus towards profitability and the potential need to tap the debt and/or equity markets to fund growth given their negative free cash flows.\nI last wrote about FSLY in mid-September when the stock was trading around $45 and noted a better entry point would be below $40. Since then, the stock has been quite volatile, yet we are still around the same $45 level.\nFastly operates a CDN (content delivery network). In other words, that have a network of services and data centers globally distributed that makes it easier for consumers to access faster internet. Through their edge cloud platform, FSLY's infrastructure is closer to the consumer's desired destination, which increases internet response times and can reduce latency.\nRecent Financial Review\nRevenue during Q3 grew 23% to $87 million, which came in just over $3 million above expectations for $83-84 million. Even though revenue had nearly $1 million impact from some write-downs associated with their Signal Sciences acquisition, growth was still pretty strong.\nHowever, the company's adjusted EBITDA loss came in around $5.4 million, which was much worse than the profit of $0.8 million last year. It also should be noted that within adjusted EBITDA, the company is adding back a lot of stock compensation, to the tune of $36.6 million during the quarter. On a GAAP basis, the company's net loss was over $56 million.\nYes, investors are still more focused around the company's revenue growth potential, which I will discuss later on, but eventually FSLY will need to demonstrate a path towards consistent profitability.\nSource: Company Presentation\nEven when looking at the company's free cash flow metrics, only once in the past 7+ quarters have been positive. The cash burn rate remains quite large and eventually we could see the company tap the debt and/or equity market for additional liquidity.\nWith almost $1.1 billion of cash and marketable securities combined with over $900 million of long-term debt, the company is sitting on just $200 million of net cash.\nOn a positive note, the company continues to expand their enterprise customer base, which reached 430 customers during the quarter. Net retention rate was 112%, which improved quite a bit from the 93% reported in the year-ago period.\nHowever, when we look at a dollar-based net expansion rate, this came in at 118% during the quarter, down from 126% last quarter. Yes, this metric remains well above 100%, which signals continued strong growth, but the sequential slowdown may wave a slight caution flag for some investors.\nSource: Company Presentation\nManagement provided guidance for Q4 which came in a little light of expectations. Revenue is expected to be $90-93 million and was a little below consensus expectations of $94.5 million. Also, non-GAAP operating loss is expected to be $15-18 million.\nOn top of that, the company talked about their $1 billion revenue goal by 2025. Optically, it sounds great to say the company is going to generate $1 billion of revenue. Looking at little further into this, $1 billion of revenue would represent a growth CAGR of ~30% for the next four years. Yes, this is a very strong growth rate, but the stock's valuation is already pricing in high expectations.\nOther Recent Updates\nBack in June, the company went through a widely publicized service outage that resulted in the company issuing credit to customers, the slowdown of existing traffic expansion, and the loss of a top 10 customer. Rumors also surfaced that Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)stopped using Fastly's services after the outage and it seems like the service outage impacts continue to weigh on the stock.\nDuring the conference call,management was asked about the extent to which traffic volumes have started to come back from some of these larger clients.\n\n So I think, as we've said, the top customer didn't return traffic, they returned to traffic. They do continue to ramp. The larger customers, when they come back, typically ramp their traffic back over time. I don't have a specific timeline, but they are back and that will increase over time.\n\nSo while the traffic continues to ramp, it seems like it could take several quarters for the traffic to fully come back, that is if Amazon (or other larger clients) wants to come back to FSLY.\nSource: CDN Traffic Share\nWhen looking at CDN Traffic Share, it continues to seem like Fastly has permanently lost a good chunk of their Amazon business. The charts above show the past 30-day CDN usage of Amazon, with the two primary resources being Amazon CloudFront and Akamai(NASDAQ:AKAM). Yes, Fastly is still seeing some traffic flow through their system, but they remain third on the totem pole and may have a long pathway back towards becoming a primary provider.\nValuation\nGiven the volatile news flow over the past several months, we have seen the stock trade in quite a volatile fashion, with +/- 3% days seemingly becoming the natural stock movement. Since reporting earnings, the stock has been down around 15% and remains well below their previous all-time high around $125.\nThe volatility does provide some interesting entry points for investors to make short-term money, however, I continue to believe there remains some execution risk to the stock. I have long-term confidence in the company's edge platform, but I believe valuation fully reflects long-term confidence, and investors should approach with caution.\nData by YCharts\nWith a current market cap of $5.3 billion and net cash of $200 million, this results in the company having an enterprise value of $5.1 billion.\nWhile the company did provide a 2025 revenue target of $1 billion, we can start to view valuation in a few different ways.\nFirst, if we assume the stock will trade at a 10x forward revenue multiple at the end of 2024 and by using the company's $1 billion revenue target, this could imply an enterprise value of $10 billion by the end of 2024. Given that we are already near the end of 2021, this would imply enterprise value growing at a ~25% CAGR through 2024.\nHowever, this valuation method is a little challenging because in a few years, revenue growth may be below the 30% CAGR that is expected through 2025. Thus, if the company is only growing 20-25% (and assuming profitability has significantly improved), then maybe the multiple is only 8-9x forward revenue, which would imply an enterprise value growth CAGR of ~15-20% for the next few years. That's still a solid return, but at current valuation, it does not leave much room for error.\nAnother way to view valuation could be the following. Part of the $1 billion of revenue by 2025 could come from inorganic contributions, thus, the company's valuation multiple should better reflect their organic growth rate. By adding acquisitions to the equation and assuming a lower organic growth, we can still get to the company's ~30% revenue growth CAGR, but maybe the forward revenue multiple pulls back towards 5-8x. In addition, this forward revenue multiple would assume a significant expansion in profitability margins and positive free cash flow.\nUnder this scenario, we could see the stock's enterprise value grow at 10%+ CAGR over the next few years, which does not seem overly attractive considering the current valuation and embedded execution risks.\nThe stock currently trades just under 17x forward revenue as investors have confidence in the long-term trajectory. However, I continue to remain on the sidelines for now and the stock already is pricing in a strong rebound. I think a better entry point would be under $40.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSLY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/876252464"}
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