June_C
2021-11-19
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Nvidia: Keep Your Money<blockquote>英伟达：保留你的钱</blockquote>
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The stock has truly been a winner. However, it is our recommendation that after this most recent earnings report and the huge run in the last month, that you take some off the table. If you have doubled or tripled here, we recommend you take out your initial investment plus 50% profit, and let the rest run with the house's money forever.</p><p><blockquote>Nvidia Corporation(NVDA)是我们向会员推荐的几只因2021年芯片短缺而具有上涨空间的半导体股票之一。该股确实是赢家。然而，我们的建议是，在最近的收益报告和上个月的大幅上涨之后，您应该取消一些考虑。如果你在这里翻了一倍或三倍，我们建议你拿出你的初始投资加上50%的利润，剩下的让房子的钱永远跑。</blockquote></p><p> This is a winning strategy. You will be entitled to all future dividends, spinoffs, splits, etc. This is how you grow generational wealth and is a key tenet of our teachings. We do believe however that it is prudent to take off exposure after this monster run. While the stock was expensive before, it is dangerously valued right now. Keep your money.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个制胜策略。你将有权获得所有未来的股息、分拆、分割等。这就是你如何增加代际财富，也是我们教义的一个关键原则。然而，我们确实认为，在这次怪物般的奔跑之后，停止曝光是谨慎的。虽然该股以前很贵，但现在的估值却很危险。留着你的钱。</blockquote></p><p> The company is still firing on all cylinders. The stock has garnered a lot of attention from traders, investors, and meme stock chasers alike. Fundamentally, even with Nvidia's chips being used in technologies that are in our everyday lives, and the demand has never been higher, the shortages will eventually balance out. You want to be ahead of that folks. No one ever gets hurt taking a profit. The way we structure our trades and handle our big wins by keeping house money exposed, you can sleep well at night. We have run this play on countless stocks. But make no mistake, at a price well north of $300 per share, even with demand where it is, we have to be calculated. It is ok to lock in profit here. While the company is demonstrating growth, a significant pullback is likely based on the high valuation, moderate growth, and the fact that the supply issues will resolve.</p><p><blockquote>该公司仍在全力以赴。该股引起了交易员、投资者和迷因股票追逐者的广泛关注。从根本上说，即使英伟达的芯片被用于我们日常生活中的技术，而且需求从未如此之高，但短缺最终会得到平衡。你想领先于那些人。没有人会因为获利而受到伤害。我们通过保持房子的钱暴露来组织我们的交易和处理我们的大胜利的方式，你可以睡个好觉。我们已经在无数股票上运行过这种策略。但毫无疑问，在远高于每股300美元的价格下，即使有需求，我们也必须进行计算。在这里锁定利润是可以的。虽然该公司表现出增长，但基于高估值、温和增长以及供应问题将得到解决的事实，可能会出现大幅回调。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia has been around a long time. We have been trading this one for a long time. In fact, it was first highlighted by our service as one that was a must own back during the heights of the COVID crisis in 2020:</p><p><blockquote>英伟达已经存在很长时间了。我们已经交易这个很长时间了。事实上，在2020年新冠危机最严重的时候，我们的服务首先强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7305cb0bdcee4e4444b237f2a109dfd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BAD BEAT Investing main chat room</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BAD BEAT Investing主聊天室</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We feel it is important to bring this to your attention as we have not publicly covered the stock yet, but have been following the company for some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为提请您注意这一点很重要，因为我们尚未公开报道该股票，但已经关注该公司一段时间了。</blockquote></p><p> Many of you may (or may not recall) other big run ups like we have seen now. In fact in 2002, 2007-08, and 2018, we saw massive corrections of better than 50% in some cases. Just because the stock is up does not mean it will fall, but we want you to keep your money, and let the house's money go to work for you. Nvidia is the most overvalued it has ever been looking at the metrics of interest for tech and even other chipmakers.</p><p><blockquote>你们中的许多人可能（也可能不记得）像我们现在看到的其他大的上涨。事实上，在2002年、2007-08年和2018年，我们在某些情况下看到了超过50%的大规模修正。股票上涨并不意味着它会下跌，但我们希望你保留你的钱，让房子的钱为你工作。从科技甚至其他芯片制造商的兴趣指标来看，英伟达是有史以来估值最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bec88cfdd740a0c631d39baac1dda0dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Every valuation metric is stretched. Even with the growth the company is seeing, it does not justify where we are now. We are Nvidia bulls, but we are also prudent traders. While there is growth on display, it is not enough to grow into this valuation. Not by a longshot.</p><p><blockquote>每个估值指标都被拉伸了。即使公司取得了增长，也不能证明我们现在的处境是合理的。我们是英伟达多头，但我们也是谨慎的交易者。虽然有增长，但不足以增长到这个估值。差远了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00ff58e7a877ebe000cb935fe07f4dff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The growth is impressive, but catching up to that valuation even with 50% EPS growth and 40% sales growth is out of reach. And, like every chip cycle, eventually, supply will normalize, pricing will stabilize, and the stock will retrace. It is all but guaranteed, and that comes even with Nvidia's tech being used in many facets of our technological lives.</p><p><blockquote>增长令人印象深刻，但即使每股收益增长50%，销售额增长40%，要赶上这一估值也是遥不可及的。而且，就像每个芯片周期一样，最终，供应将正常化，定价将稳定，库存将回调。这几乎是可以保证的，即使Nvidia的技术被用于我们技术生活的许多方面。</blockquote></p><p> Make no mistake, this is NOT a bubble. We are not saying this is a bubble. It is just super expensive and upside now is limited. New money will get a chance to buy much lower. For now, we celebrate the gains. The company brought in revenue of $7.10 billion, up 50% from a year earlier and up 9% from the sequential quarter.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，这不是泡沫。我们并不是说这是一个泡沫。它非常昂贵，而且现在的上涨空间有限。新资金将有机会以更低的价格买入。现在，我们庆祝这些收获。该公司实现营收71亿美元，同比增长50%，环比增长9%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Folks, they set again new record revenue in Gaming, Data Center and Professional Visualization market platforms. That is some winning! One of the biggest drivers of the stock and the company's growth has been the AI tech. Demand for Nvidia AI is surging each month and it is driven by being scaled to the cloud as well as much more mainstream adoption with over 25,000 companies on board. The results are impressive:</p><p><blockquote>伙计们，他们在游戏、数据中心和专业可视化市场平台上再次创下了新的收入纪录。这是一些胜利！该股和公司增长的最大驱动力之一是人工智能技术。对Nvidia AI的需求每个月都在激增，这是由扩展到云以及超过25,000家公司的更主流采用推动的。结果令人印象深刻：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcdb0c66d2e33a922697fd206ba347be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: NVIDIA Q3 Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达第三季度新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The best part of all of this expansion and record setting sales is that gross margin is expanding. Gross margin came in at 67.0%, and was up 30 basis points from the sequential quarter and up 150 basis points from a year ago. The company is doing a solid job with controlling the growth of operating expenses relative to revenue growth. You see a 50% revenue growth coupled with an increase in gross margin and a 25% growth in operating expenses was a recipe for operating income and net income expansion. Net income was up 13% from Q2 and up 62% from a year ago, with EPS rising to $1.17.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些扩张和创纪录销售的最大好处是毛利率正在扩大。毛利率为67.0%，环比增长30个基点，同比增长150个基点。公司在控制营业费用相对于收入增长的增长方面做得很好。你会看到50%的收入增长，加上毛利率的增长和25%的运营费用的增长，是运营收入和净利润扩张的秘诀。净利润较第二季度增长13%，较去年同期增长62%，每股收益升至1.17美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the growth is significant, and traditional valuation metrics cannot capture the possible expansion in AI software, networking, omniverse, or in robotics, cars, or healthcare, we are looking at a stock that is around 70X FWD EPS. Still, the growth is expected to stall, and that has to be a concern of all investors and traders who want to protect their money.</p><p><blockquote>虽然增长显着，而且传统估值指标无法捕捉人工智能软件、网络、omniverse或机器人、汽车或医疗保健领域可能的扩张，但我们正在关注一只约为70倍FWD EPS的股票。尽管如此，增长预计将陷入停滞，这必须成为所有想要保护资金的投资者和交易者的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae5a5f3316feef1854bed5eb76b93627\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"127\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Analyst Estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求Alpha分析师估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The forward look for Q4 and early 2022 is strong, but we suspect we see normalization to a degree in the overall sector and space as we move through 2022. Let us not forget the tons of competition in this space. There are lots of chipmakers, and while they all have unique approaches and specialties, this is a real concern.</p><p><blockquote>对第四季度和2022年初的展望是强劲的，但我们怀疑，随着我们进入2022年，整个行业和领域将在一定程度上正常化。让我们不要忘记这个领域的激烈竞争。有很多芯片制造商，虽然他们都有独特的方法和专长，但这是一个真正的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of keeping your money, we think Nvidia should keep its paltry dividend to itself. The whopping $0.04 quarterly dividend really does not do much for investors (ok it is not zero) but no one is \"looking forward\" to that sizable payout. We believe the company should keep that money and reinvest it in its business lines to help fuel company growth and help it catch up with the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>说到保留你的钱，我们认为英伟达应该保留其微不足道的股息。高达0.04美元的季度股息对投资者来说确实没有多大作用（好吧，它不是零），但没有人“期待”如此可观的派息。我们认为，公司应该保留这笔钱并将其再投资于其业务线，以帮助推动公司增长并帮助其赶上估值。</blockquote></p><p> As we move forward, there will be sizable growth for the next couple of quarters but we do expect a slowdown. The acquisition of ARM Holdings if approved will be transformational, but this is a $40 billion dollar shot. The company is committed to the transaction. We don't know if it can get through U.S., U.K, and Chinese regulators however. It remains unknown at this point. For more on this, please see one of the several dozen prior articleson this topic.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们的前进，未来几个季度将会有可观的增长，但我们确实预计会放缓。如果获得批准，收购ARM Holdings将是变革性的，但这是一笔400亿美元的投资。公司致力于此次交易。然而，我们不知道它是否能通过美国、英国和中国的监管机构。目前还不得而知。有关这方面的更多信息，请参阅之前关于该主题的几十篇文章中的一篇。</blockquote></p><p> Make no mistake, those who bought this stock have done very well. Many have locked in profit, but for those who have not, we think that you sell your original investment plus 50% profit and let the rest run. By doing this, you are locking in with shares near highs, while having exposure to any and all future gains, dividends, spinoffs, etc. That said, new money should definitely not be buying here. Let it pull back.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，购买这只股票的人都做得很好。许多人已经锁定了利润，但对于那些没有锁定的人，我们认为你卖掉你的原始投资加上50%的利润，让剩下的运行。通过这样做，您可以锁定接近高点的股票，同时获得任何及所有未来收益、股息、分拆等。也就是说，新资金绝对不应该在这里购买。让它拉回来。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Keep Your Money<blockquote>英伟达：保留你的钱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Keep Your Money<blockquote>英伟达：保留你的钱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-19 15:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>We have been in the stock since spring of 2020.</li> <li>Record performance in all business lines.</li> <li>The valuation is simply ridiculous, even with explosive growth.</li> <li>The growth is likely to normalize in late 2022 and that has us concerned, even with the incredible expansion the company has seen into new markets and customers.</li> <li>The dividend is a joke, the company should keep that money and reinvest it into growth of the business lines.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f0d217100f82ddae3cfb3e50178504\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1017\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Antonio Bordunovi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们从2020年春天就开始进货了。</li><li>记录所有业务线的绩效。</li><li>即使有爆炸性增长，估值也是荒谬的。</li><li>增长可能会在2022年底恢复正常，这让我们感到担忧，尽管该公司已经向新市场和客户进行了令人难以置信的扩张。</li><li>股息是一个笑话，公司应该保留这笔钱并将其再投资于业务线的增长。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Antonio Bordunovi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is one of several semiconductor stocks we have recommended as having upside with the chip shortage of 2021 to our members. The stock has truly been a winner. However, it is our recommendation that after this most recent earnings report and the huge run in the last month, that you take some off the table. If you have doubled or tripled here, we recommend you take out your initial investment plus 50% profit, and let the rest run with the house's money forever.</p><p><blockquote>Nvidia Corporation(NVDA)是我们向会员推荐的几只因2021年芯片短缺而具有上涨空间的半导体股票之一。该股确实是赢家。然而，我们的建议是，在最近的收益报告和上个月的大幅上涨之后，您应该取消一些考虑。如果你在这里翻了一倍或三倍，我们建议你拿出你的初始投资加上50%的利润，剩下的让房子的钱永远跑。</blockquote></p><p> This is a winning strategy. You will be entitled to all future dividends, spinoffs, splits, etc. This is how you grow generational wealth and is a key tenet of our teachings. We do believe however that it is prudent to take off exposure after this monster run. While the stock was expensive before, it is dangerously valued right now. Keep your money.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个制胜策略。你将有权获得所有未来的股息、分拆、分割等。这就是你如何增加代际财富，也是我们教义的一个关键原则。然而，我们确实认为，在这次怪物般的奔跑之后，停止曝光是谨慎的。虽然该股以前很贵，但现在的估值却很危险。留着你的钱。</blockquote></p><p> The company is still firing on all cylinders. The stock has garnered a lot of attention from traders, investors, and meme stock chasers alike. Fundamentally, even with Nvidia's chips being used in technologies that are in our everyday lives, and the demand has never been higher, the shortages will eventually balance out. You want to be ahead of that folks. No one ever gets hurt taking a profit. The way we structure our trades and handle our big wins by keeping house money exposed, you can sleep well at night. We have run this play on countless stocks. But make no mistake, at a price well north of $300 per share, even with demand where it is, we have to be calculated. It is ok to lock in profit here. While the company is demonstrating growth, a significant pullback is likely based on the high valuation, moderate growth, and the fact that the supply issues will resolve.</p><p><blockquote>该公司仍在全力以赴。该股引起了交易员、投资者和迷因股票追逐者的广泛关注。从根本上说，即使英伟达的芯片被用于我们日常生活中的技术，而且需求从未如此之高，但短缺最终会得到平衡。你想领先于那些人。没有人会因为获利而受到伤害。我们通过保持房子的钱暴露来组织我们的交易和处理我们的大胜利的方式，你可以睡个好觉。我们已经在无数股票上运行过这种策略。但毫无疑问，在远高于每股300美元的价格下，即使有需求，我们也必须进行计算。在这里锁定利润是可以的。虽然该公司表现出增长，但基于高估值、温和增长以及供应问题将得到解决的事实，可能会出现大幅回调。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia has been around a long time. We have been trading this one for a long time. In fact, it was first highlighted by our service as one that was a must own back during the heights of the COVID crisis in 2020:</p><p><blockquote>英伟达已经存在很长时间了。我们已经交易这个很长时间了。事实上，在2020年新冠危机最严重的时候，我们的服务首先强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7305cb0bdcee4e4444b237f2a109dfd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BAD BEAT Investing main chat room</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BAD BEAT Investing主聊天室</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We feel it is important to bring this to your attention as we have not publicly covered the stock yet, but have been following the company for some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为提请您注意这一点很重要，因为我们尚未公开报道该股票，但已经关注该公司一段时间了。</blockquote></p><p> Many of you may (or may not recall) other big run ups like we have seen now. In fact in 2002, 2007-08, and 2018, we saw massive corrections of better than 50% in some cases. Just because the stock is up does not mean it will fall, but we want you to keep your money, and let the house's money go to work for you. Nvidia is the most overvalued it has ever been looking at the metrics of interest for tech and even other chipmakers.</p><p><blockquote>你们中的许多人可能（也可能不记得）像我们现在看到的其他大的上涨。事实上，在2002年、2007-08年和2018年，我们在某些情况下看到了超过50%的大规模修正。股票上涨并不意味着它会下跌，但我们希望你保留你的钱，让房子的钱为你工作。从科技甚至其他芯片制造商的兴趣指标来看，英伟达是有史以来估值最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bec88cfdd740a0c631d39baac1dda0dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Every valuation metric is stretched. Even with the growth the company is seeing, it does not justify where we are now. We are Nvidia bulls, but we are also prudent traders. While there is growth on display, it is not enough to grow into this valuation. Not by a longshot.</p><p><blockquote>每个估值指标都被拉伸了。即使公司取得了增长，也不能证明我们现在的处境是合理的。我们是英伟达多头，但我们也是谨慎的交易者。虽然有增长，但不足以增长到这个估值。差远了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00ff58e7a877ebe000cb935fe07f4dff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The growth is impressive, but catching up to that valuation even with 50% EPS growth and 40% sales growth is out of reach. And, like every chip cycle, eventually, supply will normalize, pricing will stabilize, and the stock will retrace. It is all but guaranteed, and that comes even with Nvidia's tech being used in many facets of our technological lives.</p><p><blockquote>增长令人印象深刻，但即使每股收益增长50%，销售额增长40%，要赶上这一估值也是遥不可及的。而且，就像每个芯片周期一样，最终，供应将正常化，定价将稳定，库存将回调。这几乎是可以保证的，即使Nvidia的技术被用于我们技术生活的许多方面。</blockquote></p><p> Make no mistake, this is NOT a bubble. We are not saying this is a bubble. It is just super expensive and upside now is limited. New money will get a chance to buy much lower. For now, we celebrate the gains. The company brought in revenue of $7.10 billion, up 50% from a year earlier and up 9% from the sequential quarter.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，这不是泡沫。我们并不是说这是一个泡沫。它非常昂贵，而且现在的上涨空间有限。新资金将有机会以更低的价格买入。现在，我们庆祝这些收获。该公司实现营收71亿美元，同比增长50%，环比增长9%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Folks, they set again new record revenue in Gaming, Data Center and Professional Visualization market platforms. That is some winning! One of the biggest drivers of the stock and the company's growth has been the AI tech. Demand for Nvidia AI is surging each month and it is driven by being scaled to the cloud as well as much more mainstream adoption with over 25,000 companies on board. The results are impressive:</p><p><blockquote>伙计们，他们在游戏、数据中心和专业可视化市场平台上再次创下了新的收入纪录。这是一些胜利！该股和公司增长的最大驱动力之一是人工智能技术。对Nvidia AI的需求每个月都在激增，这是由扩展到云以及超过25,000家公司的更主流采用推动的。结果令人印象深刻：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcdb0c66d2e33a922697fd206ba347be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: NVIDIA Q3 Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达第三季度新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The best part of all of this expansion and record setting sales is that gross margin is expanding. Gross margin came in at 67.0%, and was up 30 basis points from the sequential quarter and up 150 basis points from a year ago. The company is doing a solid job with controlling the growth of operating expenses relative to revenue growth. You see a 50% revenue growth coupled with an increase in gross margin and a 25% growth in operating expenses was a recipe for operating income and net income expansion. Net income was up 13% from Q2 and up 62% from a year ago, with EPS rising to $1.17.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些扩张和创纪录销售的最大好处是毛利率正在扩大。毛利率为67.0%，环比增长30个基点，同比增长150个基点。公司在控制营业费用相对于收入增长的增长方面做得很好。你会看到50%的收入增长，加上毛利率的增长和25%的运营费用的增长，是运营收入和净利润扩张的秘诀。净利润较第二季度增长13%，较去年同期增长62%，每股收益升至1.17美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the growth is significant, and traditional valuation metrics cannot capture the possible expansion in AI software, networking, omniverse, or in robotics, cars, or healthcare, we are looking at a stock that is around 70X FWD EPS. Still, the growth is expected to stall, and that has to be a concern of all investors and traders who want to protect their money.</p><p><blockquote>虽然增长显着，而且传统估值指标无法捕捉人工智能软件、网络、omniverse或机器人、汽车或医疗保健领域可能的扩张，但我们正在关注一只约为70倍FWD EPS的股票。尽管如此，增长预计将陷入停滞，这必须成为所有想要保护资金的投资者和交易者的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae5a5f3316feef1854bed5eb76b93627\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"127\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Analyst Estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求Alpha分析师估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The forward look for Q4 and early 2022 is strong, but we suspect we see normalization to a degree in the overall sector and space as we move through 2022. Let us not forget the tons of competition in this space. There are lots of chipmakers, and while they all have unique approaches and specialties, this is a real concern.</p><p><blockquote>对第四季度和2022年初的展望是强劲的，但我们怀疑，随着我们进入2022年，整个行业和领域将在一定程度上正常化。让我们不要忘记这个领域的激烈竞争。有很多芯片制造商，虽然他们都有独特的方法和专长，但这是一个真正的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of keeping your money, we think Nvidia should keep its paltry dividend to itself. The whopping $0.04 quarterly dividend really does not do much for investors (ok it is not zero) but no one is \"looking forward\" to that sizable payout. We believe the company should keep that money and reinvest it in its business lines to help fuel company growth and help it catch up with the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>说到保留你的钱，我们认为英伟达应该保留其微不足道的股息。高达0.04美元的季度股息对投资者来说确实没有多大作用（好吧，它不是零），但没有人“期待”如此可观的派息。我们认为，公司应该保留这笔钱并将其再投资于其业务线，以帮助推动公司增长并帮助其赶上估值。</blockquote></p><p> As we move forward, there will be sizable growth for the next couple of quarters but we do expect a slowdown. The acquisition of ARM Holdings if approved will be transformational, but this is a $40 billion dollar shot. The company is committed to the transaction. We don't know if it can get through U.S., U.K, and Chinese regulators however. It remains unknown at this point. For more on this, please see one of the several dozen prior articleson this topic.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们的前进，未来几个季度将会有可观的增长，但我们确实预计会放缓。如果获得批准，收购ARM Holdings将是变革性的，但这是一笔400亿美元的投资。公司致力于此次交易。然而，我们不知道它是否能通过美国、英国和中国的监管机构。目前还不得而知。有关这方面的更多信息，请参阅之前关于该主题的几十篇文章中的一篇。</blockquote></p><p> Make no mistake, those who bought this stock have done very well. Many have locked in profit, but for those who have not, we think that you sell your original investment plus 50% profit and let the rest run. By doing this, you are locking in with shares near highs, while having exposure to any and all future gains, dividends, spinoffs, etc. That said, new money should definitely not be buying here. Let it pull back.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，购买这只股票的人都做得很好。许多人已经锁定了利润，但对于那些没有锁定的人，我们认为你卖掉你的原始投资加上50%的利润，让剩下的运行。通过这样做，您可以锁定接近高点的股票，同时获得任何及所有未来收益、股息、分拆等。也就是说，新资金绝对不应该在这里购买。让它拉回来。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470549-nvidia-keep-your-money\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470549-nvidia-keep-your-money","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108862336","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe have been in the stock since spring of 2020.\nRecord performance in all business lines.\nThe valuation is simply ridiculous, even with explosive growth.\nThe growth is likely to normalize in late 2022 and that has us concerned, even with the incredible expansion the company has seen into new markets and customers.\nThe dividend is a joke, the company should keep that money and reinvest it into growth of the business lines.\n\nAntonio Bordunovi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nNvidia Corporation (NVDA) is one of several semiconductor stocks we have recommended as having upside with the chip shortage of 2021 to our members. The stock has truly been a winner. However, it is our recommendation that after this most recent earnings report and the huge run in the last month, that you take some off the table. If you have doubled or tripled here, we recommend you take out your initial investment plus 50% profit, and let the rest run with the house's money forever.\nThis is a winning strategy. You will be entitled to all future dividends, spinoffs, splits, etc. This is how you grow generational wealth and is a key tenet of our teachings. We do believe however that it is prudent to take off exposure after this monster run. While the stock was expensive before, it is dangerously valued right now. Keep your money.\nThe company is still firing on all cylinders. The stock has garnered a lot of attention from traders, investors, and meme stock chasers alike. Fundamentally, even with Nvidia's chips being used in technologies that are in our everyday lives, and the demand has never been higher, the shortages will eventually balance out. You want to be ahead of that folks. No one ever gets hurt taking a profit. The way we structure our trades and handle our big wins by keeping house money exposed, you can sleep well at night. We have run this play on countless stocks. But make no mistake, at a price well north of $300 per share, even with demand where it is, we have to be calculated. It is ok to lock in profit here. While the company is demonstrating growth, a significant pullback is likely based on the high valuation, moderate growth, and the fact that the supply issues will resolve.\nNvidia has been around a long time. We have been trading this one for a long time. In fact, it was first highlighted by our service as one that was a must own back during the heights of the COVID crisis in 2020:\nSource: BAD BEAT Investing main chat room\nWe feel it is important to bring this to your attention as we have not publicly covered the stock yet, but have been following the company for some time.\nMany of you may (or may not recall) other big run ups like we have seen now. In fact in 2002, 2007-08, and 2018, we saw massive corrections of better than 50% in some cases. Just because the stock is up does not mean it will fall, but we want you to keep your money, and let the house's money go to work for you. Nvidia is the most overvalued it has ever been looking at the metrics of interest for tech and even other chipmakers.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nEvery valuation metric is stretched. Even with the growth the company is seeing, it does not justify where we are now. We are Nvidia bulls, but we are also prudent traders. While there is growth on display, it is not enough to grow into this valuation. Not by a longshot.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThe growth is impressive, but catching up to that valuation even with 50% EPS growth and 40% sales growth is out of reach. And, like every chip cycle, eventually, supply will normalize, pricing will stabilize, and the stock will retrace. It is all but guaranteed, and that comes even with Nvidia's tech being used in many facets of our technological lives.\nMake no mistake, this is NOT a bubble. We are not saying this is a bubble. It is just super expensive and upside now is limited. New money will get a chance to buy much lower. For now, we celebrate the gains. The company brought in revenue of $7.10 billion, up 50% from a year earlier and up 9% from the sequential quarter.\nFolks, they set again new record revenue in Gaming, Data Center and Professional Visualization market platforms. That is some winning! One of the biggest drivers of the stock and the company's growth has been the AI tech. Demand for Nvidia AI is surging each month and it is driven by being scaled to the cloud as well as much more mainstream adoption with over 25,000 companies on board. The results are impressive:\nSource: NVIDIA Q3 Press Release\nThe best part of all of this expansion and record setting sales is that gross margin is expanding. Gross margin came in at 67.0%, and was up 30 basis points from the sequential quarter and up 150 basis points from a year ago. The company is doing a solid job with controlling the growth of operating expenses relative to revenue growth. You see a 50% revenue growth coupled with an increase in gross margin and a 25% growth in operating expenses was a recipe for operating income and net income expansion. Net income was up 13% from Q2 and up 62% from a year ago, with EPS rising to $1.17.\nWhile the growth is significant, and traditional valuation metrics cannot capture the possible expansion in AI software, networking, omniverse, or in robotics, cars, or healthcare, we are looking at a stock that is around 70X FWD EPS. Still, the growth is expected to stall, and that has to be a concern of all investors and traders who want to protect their money.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Analyst Estimates\nThe forward look for Q4 and early 2022 is strong, but we suspect we see normalization to a degree in the overall sector and space as we move through 2022. Let us not forget the tons of competition in this space. There are lots of chipmakers, and while they all have unique approaches and specialties, this is a real concern.\nSpeaking of keeping your money, we think Nvidia should keep its paltry dividend to itself. The whopping $0.04 quarterly dividend really does not do much for investors (ok it is not zero) but no one is \"looking forward\" to that sizable payout. We believe the company should keep that money and reinvest it in its business lines to help fuel company growth and help it catch up with the valuation.\nAs we move forward, there will be sizable growth for the next couple of quarters but we do expect a slowdown. The acquisition of ARM Holdings if approved will be transformational, but this is a $40 billion dollar shot. The company is committed to the transaction. We don't know if it can get through U.S., U.K, and Chinese regulators however. It remains unknown at this point. For more on this, please see one of the several dozen prior articleson this topic.\nMake no mistake, those who bought this stock have done very well. Many have locked in profit, but for those who have not, we think that you sell your original investment plus 50% profit and let the rest run. By doing this, you are locking in with shares near highs, while having exposure to any and all future gains, dividends, spinoffs, etc. That said, new money should definitely not be buying here. Let it pull back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/876626372"}
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