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2021-11-20

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Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：通胀“还有更长的路要走”</blockquote>

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Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.<blockquote>报告表明，通胀超调很大程度上归因于持续的供应链紧缩导致耐用品价格上涨。高盛经济研究还预计，工资和租金增长将带来通胀压力，但这只会使通胀“适度高于2%”，与美联储更新后的框架目标一致。</blockquote> “The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.<blockquote>“当前的通胀飙升在好转之前将在今年冬天变得更糟，但随着供应受限类别从暂时的通胀提振转变为暂时的通缩拖累，我们预计核心PCE通胀率将从2021年底的4.4%降至2.3%到2022年底，”报告写道。</blockquote> Goldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.<blockquote>高盛还预计，未来几个季度经济将重新加速至4%以上的增长率，理由是服务业重新开放、消费者支出被压抑的储蓄以及库存补充。</blockquote> “These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.<blockquote>报告称：“这些力量将应对财政支持减少带来的巨大而稳定的阻力，我们预计到2022年底，GDP增长最终将接近潜力。”</blockquote> Tapering timeline<blockquote>逐渐减少的时间表</blockquote> One of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.<blockquote>这些通胀预期的主要影响之一是美联储首次加息的更新时间表。报告指出，高盛将把对美联储首次加息时间的预测提前至2022年7月，即缩减结束后不久。</blockquote> The FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.<blockquote>FOMC目前计划于2022年6月中旬完成缩减进程。政策制定者将于12月中旬举行下一次会议，届时他们将提交最新的经济预测和预期的政策路径。9月份，大约一半的政策制定者认为，在2023年之前没有必要加息。</blockquote> “Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”<blockquote>报告称：“届时通胀将在一段时间内远高于目标，我们认为从缩减到加息的无缝过渡将是阻力最小的路径，第一次加息将在7月进行，第二次加息将在11月进行。”“由于我们预计经济增长和通胀将在年底前稳定下来，无需大幅收紧货币政策，因此我们预计此后每年加息两次的速度会较慢。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：通胀“还有更长的路要走”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：通胀“还有更长的路要走”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nYahoo2021-11-19 23:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInflation&nbsp;remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.<blockquote>通胀仍然令人担忧，因为数据继续与白宫和美联储关于物价上涨将是“暂时的”的说法发生冲突。然而，根据高盛经济研究(GS)11月13日发布的报告，尽管通胀已经达到30年来的新高，但可能仍有更多的上涨空间。</blockquote> “The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”<blockquote>报告称：“美国经济今年基本上遵循了我们预期的快速复苏之路，随着疫情的大部分剩余影响消退，美国经济有望在明年完成复苏。”“但今年也带来了一个重大惊喜：通胀飙升，已经达到30年来的新高，而且还有很长的路要走。”</blockquote> The report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.<blockquote>报告表明，通胀超调很大程度上归因于持续的供应链紧缩导致耐用品价格上涨。高盛经济研究还预计，工资和租金增长将带来通胀压力，但这只会使通胀“适度高于2%”，与美联储更新后的框架目标一致。</blockquote> “The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.<blockquote>“当前的通胀飙升在好转之前将在今年冬天变得更糟，但随着供应受限类别从暂时的通胀提振转变为暂时的通缩拖累，我们预计核心PCE通胀率将从2021年底的4.4%降至2.3%到2022年底，”报告写道。</blockquote> Goldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.<blockquote>高盛还预计，未来几个季度经济将重新加速至4%以上的增长率，理由是服务业重新开放、消费者支出被压抑的储蓄以及库存补充。</blockquote> “These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.<blockquote>报告称：“这些力量将应对财政支持减少带来的巨大而稳定的阻力，我们预计到2022年底，GDP增长最终将接近潜力。”</blockquote> Tapering timeline<blockquote>逐渐减少的时间表</blockquote> One of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.<blockquote>这些通胀预期的主要影响之一是美联储首次加息的更新时间表。报告指出，高盛将把对美联储首次加息时间的预测提前至2022年7月，即缩减结束后不久。</blockquote> The FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.<blockquote>FOMC目前计划于2022年6月中旬完成缩减进程。政策制定者将于12月中旬举行下一次会议，届时他们将提交最新的经济预测和预期的政策路径。9月份，大约一半的政策制定者认为，在2023年之前没有必要加息。</blockquote> “Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”<blockquote>报告称：“届时通胀将在一段时间内远高于目标，我们认为从缩减到加息的无缝过渡将是阻力最小的路径，第一次加息将在7月进行，第二次加息将在11月进行。”“由于我们预计经济增长和通胀将在年底前稳定下来，无需大幅收紧货币政策，因此我们预计此后每年加息两次的速度会较慢。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-at-30-year-high-has-further-to-go-goldman-sachs-150441968.html\">Yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-at-30-year-high-has-further-to-go-goldman-sachs-150441968.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112678123","content_text":"Inflation remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.\n“The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”\nThe report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.\n“The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.\nGoldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.\n“These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.\nTapering timeline\nOne of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.\nThe FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.\n“Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2196,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/876783466"}