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2021-11-20

Wow

Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：通胀“还有更长的路要走”</blockquote>

2021-11-20

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-13

Wow

Blockchain stocks rose in Tuesday premarket trading<blockquote>区块链股票周二盘前交易上涨</blockquote>

2021-04-06

Wow

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>

2021-04-06

For sure

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23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：通胀“还有更长的路要走”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112678123","media":"Yahoo","summary":"Inflation remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the F","content":"<p>Inflation&nbsp;remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.</p><p><blockquote>通胀仍然令人担忧，因为数据继续与白宫和美联储关于物价上涨将是“暂时的”的说法发生冲突。然而，根据高盛经济研究(GS)11月13日发布的报告，尽管通胀已经达到30年来的新高，但可能仍有更多的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> “The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“美国经济今年基本上遵循了我们预期的快速复苏之路，随着疫情的大部分剩余影响消退，美国经济有望在明年完成复苏。”“但今年也带来了一个重大惊喜：通胀飙升，已经达到30年来的新高，而且还有很长的路要走。”</blockquote></p><p> The report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.</p><p><blockquote>报告表明，通胀超调很大程度上归因于持续的供应链紧缩导致耐用品价格上涨。高盛经济研究还预计，工资和租金增长将带来通胀压力，但这只会使通胀“适度高于2%”，与美联储更新后的框架目标一致。</blockquote></p><p> “The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.</p><p><blockquote>“当前的通胀飙升在好转之前将在今年冬天变得更糟，但随着供应受限类别从暂时的通胀提振转变为暂时的通缩拖累，我们预计核心PCE通胀率将从2021年底的4.4%降至2.3%到2022年底，”报告写道。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.</p><p><blockquote>高盛还预计，未来几个季度经济将重新加速至4%以上的增长率，理由是服务业重新开放、消费者支出被压抑的储蓄以及库存补充。</blockquote></p><p> “These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“这些力量将应对财政支持减少带来的巨大而稳定的阻力，我们预计到2022年底，GDP增长最终将接近潜力。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tapering timeline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逐渐减少的时间表</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.</p><p><blockquote>这些通胀预期的主要影响之一是美联储首次加息的更新时间表。报告指出，高盛将把对美联储首次加息时间的预测提前至2022年7月，即缩减结束后不久。</blockquote></p><p> The FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>FOMC目前计划于2022年6月中旬完成缩减进程。政策制定者将于12月中旬举行下一次会议，届时他们将提交最新的经济预测和预期的政策路径。9月份，大约一半的政策制定者认为，在2023年之前没有必要加息。</blockquote></p><p> “Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“届时通胀将在一段时间内远高于目标，我们认为从缩减到加息的无缝过渡将是阻力最小的路径，第一次加息将在7月进行，第二次加息将在11月进行。”“由于我们预计经济增长和通胀将在年底前稳定下来，无需大幅收紧货币政策，因此我们预计此后每年加息两次的速度会较慢。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：通胀“还有更长的路要走”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：通胀“还有更长的路要走”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation&nbsp;remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.</p><p><blockquote>通胀仍然令人担忧，因为数据继续与白宫和美联储关于物价上涨将是“暂时的”的说法发生冲突。然而，根据高盛经济研究(GS)11月13日发布的报告，尽管通胀已经达到30年来的新高，但可能仍有更多的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> “The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“美国经济今年基本上遵循了我们预期的快速复苏之路，随着疫情的大部分剩余影响消退，美国经济有望在明年完成复苏。”“但今年也带来了一个重大惊喜：通胀飙升，已经达到30年来的新高，而且还有很长的路要走。”</blockquote></p><p> The report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.</p><p><blockquote>报告表明，通胀超调很大程度上归因于持续的供应链紧缩导致耐用品价格上涨。高盛经济研究还预计，工资和租金增长将带来通胀压力，但这只会使通胀“适度高于2%”，与美联储更新后的框架目标一致。</blockquote></p><p> “The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.</p><p><blockquote>“当前的通胀飙升在好转之前将在今年冬天变得更糟，但随着供应受限类别从暂时的通胀提振转变为暂时的通缩拖累，我们预计核心PCE通胀率将从2021年底的4.4%降至2.3%到2022年底，”报告写道。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.</p><p><blockquote>高盛还预计，未来几个季度经济将重新加速至4%以上的增长率，理由是服务业重新开放、消费者支出被压抑的储蓄以及库存补充。</blockquote></p><p> “These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“这些力量将应对财政支持减少带来的巨大而稳定的阻力，我们预计到2022年底，GDP增长最终将接近潜力。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tapering timeline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逐渐减少的时间表</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.</p><p><blockquote>这些通胀预期的主要影响之一是美联储首次加息的更新时间表。报告指出，高盛将把对美联储首次加息时间的预测提前至2022年7月，即缩减结束后不久。</blockquote></p><p> The FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>FOMC目前计划于2022年6月中旬完成缩减进程。政策制定者将于12月中旬举行下一次会议，届时他们将提交最新的经济预测和预期的政策路径。9月份，大约一半的政策制定者认为，在2023年之前没有必要加息。</blockquote></p><p> “Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“届时通胀将在一段时间内远高于目标，我们认为从缩减到加息的无缝过渡将是阻力最小的路径，第一次加息将在7月进行，第二次加息将在11月进行。”“由于我们预计经济增长和通胀将在年底前稳定下来，无需大幅收紧货币政策，因此我们预计此后每年加息两次的速度会较慢。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-at-30-year-high-has-further-to-go-goldman-sachs-150441968.html\">Yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-at-30-year-high-has-further-to-go-goldman-sachs-150441968.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112678123","content_text":"Inflation remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.\n“The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”\nThe report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.\n“The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.\nGoldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.\n“These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.\nTapering timeline\nOne of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.\nThe FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.\n“Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876783035,"gmtCreate":1637364834688,"gmtModify":1637364834750,"author":{"id":"3579561854239066","authorId":"3579561854239066","name":"Mervyn88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2bbaeecee351134d787fc7dcaafd2f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579561854239066","idStr":"3579561854239066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876783035","repostId":"2184842262","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345200878,"gmtCreate":1618314692394,"gmtModify":1634293782683,"author":{"id":"3579561854239066","authorId":"3579561854239066","name":"Mervyn88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2bbaeecee351134d787fc7dcaafd2f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579561854239066","idStr":"3579561854239066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345200878","repostId":"1179249150","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179249150","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618302145,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179249150?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 16:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Blockchain stocks rose in Tuesday premarket trading<blockquote>区块链股票周二盘前交易上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179249150","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 13) Blockchain stocks rose in premarket trading. Bitcoin hit a record of $62,575 on Tuesday, ","content":"<p>(April 13)&nbsp;Blockchain stocks rose in premarket trading.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（4月13日）区块链股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin hit a record of $62,575 on Tuesday, extending its 2021 rally to new heights.</p><p><blockquote>比特币周二触及创纪录的62,575美元，将2021年的涨势延续至新高。</blockquote></p><p>The world's biggest cryptocurrency has more than doubled in price this year amid growing mainstream acceptance as an investment and a means of payment, and as investors seek high-yielding assets amid low interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的主流接受作为一种投资和支付手段，以及投资者在低利率下寻求高收益资产，全球最大的加密货币的价格今年上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p>Major firms including BNY Mellon, Mastercard Inc&nbsp;and Tesla Inc are among those to have embraced or invested in cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>包括纽约梅隆银行、万事达卡公司和特斯拉公司在内的大公司都已经接受或投资了加密货币。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b5d8aeb1b469856de3a11e0ae1e424b\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"430\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c371325120c50fa37d3c3bf9cc0a99ab\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Blockchain stocks rose in Tuesday premarket trading<blockquote>区块链股票周二盘前交易上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlockchain stocks rose in Tuesday premarket trading<blockquote>区块链股票周二盘前交易上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-13 16:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 13)&nbsp;Blockchain stocks rose in premarket trading.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（4月13日）区块链股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin hit a record of $62,575 on Tuesday, extending its 2021 rally to new heights.</p><p><blockquote>比特币周二触及创纪录的62,575美元，将2021年的涨势延续至新高。</blockquote></p><p>The world's biggest cryptocurrency has more than doubled in price this year amid growing mainstream acceptance as an investment and a means of payment, and as investors seek high-yielding assets amid low interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的主流接受作为一种投资和支付手段，以及投资者在低利率下寻求高收益资产，全球最大的加密货币的价格今年上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p>Major firms including BNY Mellon, Mastercard Inc&nbsp;and Tesla Inc are among those to have embraced or invested in cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>包括纽约梅隆银行、万事达卡公司和特斯拉公司在内的大公司都已经接受或投资了加密货币。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b5d8aeb1b469856de3a11e0ae1e424b\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"430\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c371325120c50fa37d3c3bf9cc0a99ab\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MARA":"MARA Holdings","SOS":"SOS Limited","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","CAN":"嘉楠科技","NCTY":"第九城市"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179249150","content_text":"(April 13) Blockchain stocks rose in premarket trading. Bitcoin hit a record of $62,575 on Tuesday, extending its 2021 rally to new heights.The world's biggest cryptocurrency has more than doubled in price this year amid growing mainstream acceptance as an investment and a means of payment, and as investors seek high-yielding assets amid low interest rates.Major firms including BNY Mellon, Mastercard Inc and Tesla Inc are among those to have embraced or invested in cryptocurrencies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MARA":0.9,"NCTY":0.9,"SOS":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"RIOT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343280292,"gmtCreate":1617718726216,"gmtModify":1634296932767,"author":{"id":"3579561854239066","authorId":"3579561854239066","name":"Mervyn88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2bbaeecee351134d787fc7dcaafd2f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579561854239066","idStr":"3579561854239066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343280292","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343215583,"gmtCreate":1617718547242,"gmtModify":1634296934393,"author":{"id":"3579561854239066","authorId":"3579561854239066","name":"Mervyn88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2bbaeecee351134d787fc7dcaafd2f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579561854239066","idStr":"3579561854239066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For sure&nbsp;","listText":"For sure&nbsp;","text":"For sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343215583","repostId":"2125973857","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":876783035,"gmtCreate":1637364834688,"gmtModify":1637364834750,"author":{"id":"3579561854239066","authorId":"3579561854239066","name":"Mervyn88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2bbaeecee351134d787fc7dcaafd2f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579561854239066","idStr":"3579561854239066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876783035","repostId":"2184842262","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343280292,"gmtCreate":1617718726216,"gmtModify":1634296932767,"author":{"id":"3579561854239066","authorId":"3579561854239066","name":"Mervyn88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2bbaeecee351134d787fc7dcaafd2f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579561854239066","idStr":"3579561854239066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343280292","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":876783466,"gmtCreate":1637364873126,"gmtModify":1637364873195,"author":{"id":"3579561854239066","authorId":"3579561854239066","name":"Mervyn88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2bbaeecee351134d787fc7dcaafd2f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579561854239066","idStr":"3579561854239066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876783466","repostId":"1112678123","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112678123","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637334723,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112678123?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：通胀“还有更长的路要走”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112678123","media":"Yahoo","summary":"Inflation remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the F","content":"<p>Inflation&nbsp;remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.</p><p><blockquote>通胀仍然令人担忧，因为数据继续与白宫和美联储关于物价上涨将是“暂时的”的说法发生冲突。然而，根据高盛经济研究(GS)11月13日发布的报告，尽管通胀已经达到30年来的新高，但可能仍有更多的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> “The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“美国经济今年基本上遵循了我们预期的快速复苏之路，随着疫情的大部分剩余影响消退，美国经济有望在明年完成复苏。”“但今年也带来了一个重大惊喜：通胀飙升，已经达到30年来的新高，而且还有很长的路要走。”</blockquote></p><p> The report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.</p><p><blockquote>报告表明，通胀超调很大程度上归因于持续的供应链紧缩导致耐用品价格上涨。高盛经济研究还预计，工资和租金增长将带来通胀压力，但这只会使通胀“适度高于2%”，与美联储更新后的框架目标一致。</blockquote></p><p> “The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.</p><p><blockquote>“当前的通胀飙升在好转之前将在今年冬天变得更糟，但随着供应受限类别从暂时的通胀提振转变为暂时的通缩拖累，我们预计核心PCE通胀率将从2021年底的4.4%降至2.3%到2022年底，”报告写道。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.</p><p><blockquote>高盛还预计，未来几个季度经济将重新加速至4%以上的增长率，理由是服务业重新开放、消费者支出被压抑的储蓄以及库存补充。</blockquote></p><p> “These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“这些力量将应对财政支持减少带来的巨大而稳定的阻力，我们预计到2022年底，GDP增长最终将接近潜力。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tapering timeline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逐渐减少的时间表</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.</p><p><blockquote>这些通胀预期的主要影响之一是美联储首次加息的更新时间表。报告指出，高盛将把对美联储首次加息时间的预测提前至2022年7月，即缩减结束后不久。</blockquote></p><p> The FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>FOMC目前计划于2022年6月中旬完成缩减进程。政策制定者将于12月中旬举行下一次会议，届时他们将提交最新的经济预测和预期的政策路径。9月份，大约一半的政策制定者认为，在2023年之前没有必要加息。</blockquote></p><p> “Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“届时通胀将在一段时间内远高于目标，我们认为从缩减到加息的无缝过渡将是阻力最小的路径，第一次加息将在7月进行，第二次加息将在11月进行。”“由于我们预计经济增长和通胀将在年底前稳定下来，无需大幅收紧货币政策，因此我们预计此后每年加息两次的速度会较慢。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：通胀“还有更长的路要走”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation has ‘further to go:’ Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：通胀“还有更长的路要走”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation&nbsp;remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.</p><p><blockquote>通胀仍然令人担忧，因为数据继续与白宫和美联储关于物价上涨将是“暂时的”的说法发生冲突。然而，根据高盛经济研究(GS)11月13日发布的报告，尽管通胀已经达到30年来的新高，但可能仍有更多的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> “The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“美国经济今年基本上遵循了我们预期的快速复苏之路，随着疫情的大部分剩余影响消退，美国经济有望在明年完成复苏。”“但今年也带来了一个重大惊喜：通胀飙升，已经达到30年来的新高，而且还有很长的路要走。”</blockquote></p><p> The report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.</p><p><blockquote>报告表明，通胀超调很大程度上归因于持续的供应链紧缩导致耐用品价格上涨。高盛经济研究还预计，工资和租金增长将带来通胀压力，但这只会使通胀“适度高于2%”，与美联储更新后的框架目标一致。</blockquote></p><p> “The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.</p><p><blockquote>“当前的通胀飙升在好转之前将在今年冬天变得更糟，但随着供应受限类别从暂时的通胀提振转变为暂时的通缩拖累，我们预计核心PCE通胀率将从2021年底的4.4%降至2.3%到2022年底，”报告写道。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.</p><p><blockquote>高盛还预计，未来几个季度经济将重新加速至4%以上的增长率，理由是服务业重新开放、消费者支出被压抑的储蓄以及库存补充。</blockquote></p><p> “These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“这些力量将应对财政支持减少带来的巨大而稳定的阻力，我们预计到2022年底，GDP增长最终将接近潜力。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tapering timeline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逐渐减少的时间表</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.</p><p><blockquote>这些通胀预期的主要影响之一是美联储首次加息的更新时间表。报告指出，高盛将把对美联储首次加息时间的预测提前至2022年7月，即缩减结束后不久。</blockquote></p><p> The FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>FOMC目前计划于2022年6月中旬完成缩减进程。政策制定者将于12月中旬举行下一次会议，届时他们将提交最新的经济预测和预期的政策路径。9月份，大约一半的政策制定者认为，在2023年之前没有必要加息。</blockquote></p><p> “Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“届时通胀将在一段时间内远高于目标，我们认为从缩减到加息的无缝过渡将是阻力最小的路径，第一次加息将在7月进行，第二次加息将在11月进行。”“由于我们预计经济增长和通胀将在年底前稳定下来，无需大幅收紧货币政策，因此我们预计此后每年加息两次的速度会较慢。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-at-30-year-high-has-further-to-go-goldman-sachs-150441968.html\">Yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-at-30-year-high-has-further-to-go-goldman-sachs-150441968.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112678123","content_text":"Inflation remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.\n“The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”\nThe report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.\n“The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.\nGoldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.\n“These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.\nTapering timeline\nOne of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.\nThe FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.\n“Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343215583,"gmtCreate":1617718547242,"gmtModify":1634296934393,"author":{"id":"3579561854239066","authorId":"3579561854239066","name":"Mervyn88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2bbaeecee351134d787fc7dcaafd2f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579561854239066","idStr":"3579561854239066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For sure&nbsp;","listText":"For sure&nbsp;","text":"For sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343215583","repostId":"2125973857","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345200878,"gmtCreate":1618314692394,"gmtModify":1634293782683,"author":{"id":"3579561854239066","authorId":"3579561854239066","name":"Mervyn88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2bbaeecee351134d787fc7dcaafd2f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579561854239066","idStr":"3579561854239066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345200878","repostId":"1179249150","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179249150","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618302145,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179249150?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 16:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Blockchain stocks rose in Tuesday premarket trading<blockquote>区块链股票周二盘前交易上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179249150","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 13) Blockchain stocks rose in premarket trading. Bitcoin hit a record of $62,575 on Tuesday, ","content":"<p>(April 13)&nbsp;Blockchain stocks rose in premarket trading.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（4月13日）区块链股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin hit a record of $62,575 on Tuesday, extending its 2021 rally to new heights.</p><p><blockquote>比特币周二触及创纪录的62,575美元，将2021年的涨势延续至新高。</blockquote></p><p>The world's biggest cryptocurrency has more than doubled in price this year amid growing mainstream acceptance as an investment and a means of payment, and as investors seek high-yielding assets amid low interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的主流接受作为一种投资和支付手段，以及投资者在低利率下寻求高收益资产，全球最大的加密货币的价格今年上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p>Major firms including BNY Mellon, Mastercard Inc&nbsp;and Tesla Inc are among those to have embraced or invested in cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>包括纽约梅隆银行、万事达卡公司和特斯拉公司在内的大公司都已经接受或投资了加密货币。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b5d8aeb1b469856de3a11e0ae1e424b\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"430\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c371325120c50fa37d3c3bf9cc0a99ab\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlockchain stocks rose in Tuesday premarket trading<blockquote>区块链股票周二盘前交易上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-13 16:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 13)&nbsp;Blockchain stocks rose in premarket trading.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（4月13日）区块链股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin hit a record of $62,575 on Tuesday, extending its 2021 rally to new heights.</p><p><blockquote>比特币周二触及创纪录的62,575美元，将2021年的涨势延续至新高。</blockquote></p><p>The world's biggest cryptocurrency has more than doubled in price this year amid growing mainstream acceptance as an investment and a means of payment, and as investors seek high-yielding assets amid low interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的主流接受作为一种投资和支付手段，以及投资者在低利率下寻求高收益资产，全球最大的加密货币的价格今年上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p>Major firms including BNY Mellon, Mastercard Inc&nbsp;and Tesla Inc are among those to have embraced or invested in cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>包括纽约梅隆银行、万事达卡公司和特斯拉公司在内的大公司都已经接受或投资了加密货币。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b5d8aeb1b469856de3a11e0ae1e424b\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"430\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c371325120c50fa37d3c3bf9cc0a99ab\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MARA":"MARA Holdings","SOS":"SOS Limited","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","CAN":"嘉楠科技","NCTY":"第九城市"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179249150","content_text":"(April 13) Blockchain stocks rose in premarket trading. Bitcoin hit a record of $62,575 on Tuesday, extending its 2021 rally to new heights.The world's biggest cryptocurrency has more than doubled in price this year amid growing mainstream acceptance as an investment and a means of payment, and as investors seek high-yielding assets amid low interest rates.Major firms including BNY Mellon, Mastercard Inc and Tesla Inc are among those to have embraced or invested in cryptocurrencies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MARA":0.9,"NCTY":0.9,"SOS":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"RIOT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}