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2021-11-26

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Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，现在“持有”</blockquote>

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In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.<blockquote>在经历了强劲的表现之后，我认为是时候看看高通是否还能为投资者提供价值了，如果高通的股价现在很昂贵。在本文中，我将回顾高通最近的财报和投资者日，并考虑到高通的中期盈利预期，检查其估值是否仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote> Recent Earnings<blockquote>近期收益</blockquote> Qualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.<blockquote>本月初，高通公布了第四季度和2021财年（2021财年-截至2021年9月26日的年度）的积极业绩。该公司公布的第四季度收入比预期高出 5%，而其利润则超出预期近 13%。</blockquote> For the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.<blockquote>对于整个财年，该公司能够超越 2019 年投资者日设定的收入增长和利润率扩张目标，预示着未来的增长良好。</blockquote> In FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).<blockquote>2021 财年，高通的收入达到 335.6 亿美元（同比增长 43%），而经营利润接近 103 亿美元（同比增长 80%）。其净利润同比增长 74%，超过 90 亿美元，净利润率达到 26.9%（2020 财年为 22.1%）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ba047cfae2944b81902cd46d4028cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Qualcomm.<blockquote>资料来源：高通。</blockquote> Qualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.<blockquote>高通的增长引擎是 QCT 部门（技术），收入同比增长 64%，而授权部门（QTL）收入同比增长 26%。在 QTL 领域，高通的增长基础广泛，其中无线电滤波器和物联网领域尤为强劲。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab453c09529203bf11d1d892cf4bb51\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"182\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Qualcomm.<blockquote>资料来源：高通。</blockquote> Despite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.<blockquote>尽管公司采取了多元化战略，但高通仍然大量涉足移动市场（手机），该市场约占其 QTL 收入的 62%。然而，这一权重预计将在未来几年逐渐下降，因为物联网等其他细分市场在中长期内应该会有更高的增长率，因为手机在过去一年中周期性地受益于向5G手机的快速转变。</blockquote> I see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.<blockquote>我认为这些结果相当不错，超出了我自己的预期，该公司能够报告射频、汽车和物联网的年收入总计超过100亿美元，这对高通来说是一个伟大的里程碑，与2019财年相比增长了一倍多。</blockquote> This clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.<blockquote>这清楚地表明，高通的多元化战略进展顺利，执行情况良好，这增强了对未来增长目标的信心。除此之外，目前的芯片短缺也在影响高通的业务，就像业内其他公司一样，这使得高通最近的增长更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote> Regarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.<blockquote>在股东薪酬政策方面，上一财年，高通进行了近34亿美元的股票回购，并派发了30亿美元的股息。因此，其股东总资本回报达64亿美元，占其利润的70%以上。然而，其股息收益率仅为 1.5% 左右，因此我认为高通主要是一家 “成长型 ”公司，而收入还不足以成为购买高通股票的理由。</blockquote> Qualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.<blockquote>高通对下一季度的前景也是乐观的，该公司预计营收将超过 100 亿美元，稀释后每股收益在 2.53-2.73 美元之间。尽管高通的业务有一定的季节性，但第一季度通常是一个更强劲的季度，但这一前景意味着年收入将接近 400 亿美元，比上一财年增长 19%。</blockquote> This is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.<blockquote>这符合华尔街目前的预期，因为目前的共识是 2022 财年的营收为 395 亿美元，这表明高通最近的增长不是暂时的。</blockquote> On the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently thatApple(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.<blockquote>另一方面，正如我在之前的分析中强调的潜在风险，最近又有传言称苹果(AAPL) 将在 2023 年使用自己的 5G 调制解调器芯片，而不是高通的芯片。很难量化高通将因此损失多少收入，但肯定会是重大的，并且是投资者应该意识到的中期收入和盈利增长的潜在阻力。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.<blockquote>尽管如此，该公司最近在投资者日表明，其业务很容易受到一些长期增长趋势的影响，例如物联网或5G驱动的汽车和工业连接。这对其未来几年的增长前景来说是个好兆头，也可以减轻失去苹果部分业务的影响。</blockquote> Investor Day<blockquote>投资者日</blockquote> As I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.<blockquote>正如我之前在高通公司讨论过的那样，考虑到该公司近年来已经很好地调整了产品组合，以适应未来几年移动行业以外对这些无线技术的预期更高需求，该公司完全有能力从 5G 和物联网的长期增长趋势中受益。</blockquote> Its growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.<blockquote>高通的增长战略一直是实现产品多元化，以便为更多行业和不同类型的客户（即汽车或工业领域）提供解决方案和产品，从而增加高通的总目标市场和更高的长期增长前景，而不是过度依赖移动行业。</blockquote> The company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.<blockquote>由于正在进行的数字化转型，该公司拥有几项移动和连接技术，这些技术具有巨大的增长前景，预计未来不会放缓。事实上，在最近的投资者日，高通表示，其总潜在市场预计将在未来十年大幅扩张，从目前的约 1000 亿美元增加到 2030 年的约 7000 亿美元。这是因为预计连接到互联网的设备数量不断增加，会产生大量数据，这将为公司未来的发展提供强劲的推动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9b8a9143bcaf8706b35feb39aac5ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Qualcomm.<blockquote>资料来源：高通。</blockquote> Qualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.<blockquote>高通还再次讨论了其横跨手机以外几个终端市场的技术，在我看来，物联网、汽车或虚拟现实设备对公司来说仍然相对较小，但在未来几年将成为高通业务的重要组成部分。例如，高通的目标是到 2024 财年物联网年收入约为 90 亿美元，而去年为 50 亿美元，而在汽车领域，预计五年内将从去年的 10 亿美元年收入增长到约 35 亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe04cb81f8fa2aba439f6f5309780c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Qualcomm.<blockquote>资料来源：高通。</blockquote> In the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.<blockquote>在移动领域，高通也看到了5G带来的良好长期增长前景，预计到2024财年，5G手机在总出货量中的份额将逐渐增加到85%左右，是去年总出货量的两倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/552a1a716059d719fc6e64b861f09a8d\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Qualcomm.<blockquote>资料来源：高通。</blockquote> Regarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.<blockquote>关于其资本结构和股东薪酬政策，高通打算维持其将大部分自由现金流分配给股东的政策，包括增加股息和机会主义股票回购。由于该公司的财务杠杆很强，从 2021 财年末的净债务与 EBITDA 的比率低于 0.5 倍来看，它不需要保留太多现金，因此我预计高通将在未来几年内将接近 100% 的自由现金流分配给股东。</blockquote> However, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.<blockquote>然而，如果公司寻求收购，特别是如果它进行主要通过债务融资的大型收购，这种情况可能会发生变化。这将增加公司的财务杠杆率，很可能在随后的几年里，公司的战略会转向降低杠杆率，直到再次实现像今天这样强劲的资产负债表。</blockquote> Estimates &amp; Valuation<blockquote>估计及估值</blockquote> Regarding medium-term&nbsp;estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.<blockquote>关于中期预测，高通未来四年的收入预计将以每年 7.3% 左右的速度增长，与 2021 财年相比将大幅放缓。我认为这些都是保守的估计，如果经营势头保持强劲，未来几个月仍有向上修正的潜力。</blockquote> For the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.<blockquote>2025 财年的收入预计约为 440 亿美元，考虑到 2022 财年的收入预计约为 400 亿美元，这个数字似乎太低了。我比目前的共识更乐观，预计到 2025 财年收入将达到 500 亿美元左右，预计 2023 财年至 2025 财年期间的年收入增长率约为 7-8%，我认为这仍然相当保守。</blockquote> Its bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.<blockquote>据我估计，到 2025 财年，该公司的利润预计将增至 140 亿美元以上，略高于共识，因为我预计收入会更高，这意味着到 2025 财年，每股收益将达到 12 美元左右。</blockquote> Regarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.<blockquote>关于估值，我的方法是研究未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股在两到四年的时间范围内是否有上涨潜力。因此，我使用 2025 财年的预测来判断高通的股票在中期内是否有上涨潜力。</blockquote> Based on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.<blockquote>根据高通公司到 2025 财年的每股收益估计为 12 美元，以及过去几年混合远期收益（未来 12 个月）17.3 倍的历史估值倍数，我对高通公司到 2024 年 9 月的目标价为每股 207 美元。</blockquote> This means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.<blockquote>这意味着，根据这些假设，高通未来三年的上涨潜力约为 15%，这并不令人印象深刻，也表明其中期增长的很大一部分已经反映在其股价上。</blockquote> Note that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.<blockquote>请注意，在过去两年中，高通的远期市盈率有些波动，在远期市盈率的 13-22 倍之间波动。当我写上一篇关于高通的文章时，其股价处于该区间的底部，该股显然值得买入，而现在的交易价格接近其历史价值。这意味着中期有更大的上行潜力，因为高通显然处于有利地位，可以从 5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接中受益，因此未来几年有可能将评级重新评级至更高的倍数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb82ba4ac66c3ed8128484453fc4730c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Bloomberg.<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社。</blockquote> Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Qualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.<blockquote>高通的经营势头在最近几个季度有了明显改善，未来几年的增长前景良好，因为该公司的产品多元化战略进展顺利，预计将支持未来几年的增长。</blockquote> However, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.<blockquote>然而，随着公司最近的财报和投资者日的公布，该公司股价的基本面迅速改善，现在的上涨潜力比几个月前更加有限。接触高通的投资者应该 “持有”，并在未来可能出现的回调中买入更多。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，现在“持有”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，现在“持有”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-26 11:26\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Qualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.</li> <li>Its recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.</li> <li>After a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa6af8989c0e13371421d6fed2fac8e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">G0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>高通处于有利地位，可以从 5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的长期增长趋势中受益。</li><li>其近期的经营业绩相当不错，未来几个季度的势头应该会保持强劲，尽管预计中期内增长将放缓。</li><li>在股市强劲反弹之后，上涨空间现在更加有限，投资者应该在潜在的回调期间买入更多。</li></ul>G0d4ather/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> QUALCOMM(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.<blockquote>高通在 5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的支持下，QCOM 在未来几年有着有趣的增长前景，但其股价表现在过去几个月中相当强劲，高通现在被 “持有”。</blockquote> Background<blockquote>背景</blockquote> About two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from&nbsp;MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) modem business.<blockquote>大约两个月前，我推荐高通作为 5G 和物联网 (IoT) 长期增长主题的有趣投资，尽管存在一些中期风险，例如来自联发科（OTCPK：MDTKF）在移动领域以及失败的可能性苹果的（AAPL）调制解调器业务。</blockquote> Since my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.<blockquote>自从我发表文章以来，在过去一周强劲的盈利和乐观的投资者日的支撑下，高通公司的股价一路飙升，在大约两个月内上涨了 39% 以上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b777c551db65315946aa3d0e67786e9\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha.<blockquote>来源：寻求阿尔法。</blockquote> After a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.<blockquote>在经历了强劲的表现之后，我认为是时候看看高通是否还能为投资者提供价值了，如果高通的股价现在很昂贵。在本文中，我将回顾高通最近的财报和投资者日，并考虑到高通的中期盈利预期，检查其估值是否仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote> Recent Earnings<blockquote>近期收益</blockquote> Qualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.<blockquote>本月初，高通公布了第四季度和2021财年（2021财年-截至2021年9月26日的年度）的积极业绩。该公司公布的第四季度收入比预期高出 5%，而其利润则超出预期近 13%。</blockquote> For the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.<blockquote>对于整个财年，该公司能够超越 2019 年投资者日设定的收入增长和利润率扩张目标，预示着未来的增长良好。</blockquote> In FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).<blockquote>2021 财年，高通的收入达到 335.6 亿美元（同比增长 43%），而经营利润接近 103 亿美元（同比增长 80%）。其净利润同比增长 74%，超过 90 亿美元，净利润率达到 26.9%（2020 财年为 22.1%）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ba047cfae2944b81902cd46d4028cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Qualcomm.<blockquote>资料来源：高通。</blockquote> Qualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.<blockquote>高通的增长引擎是 QCT 部门（技术），收入同比增长 64%，而授权部门（QTL）收入同比增长 26%。在 QTL 领域，高通的增长基础广泛，其中无线电滤波器和物联网领域尤为强劲。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab453c09529203bf11d1d892cf4bb51\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"182\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Qualcomm.<blockquote>资料来源：高通。</blockquote> Despite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.<blockquote>尽管公司采取了多元化战略，但高通仍然大量涉足移动市场（手机），该市场约占其 QTL 收入的 62%。然而，这一权重预计将在未来几年逐渐下降，因为物联网等其他细分市场在中长期内应该会有更高的增长率，因为手机在过去一年中周期性地受益于向5G手机的快速转变。</blockquote> I see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.<blockquote>我认为这些结果相当不错，超出了我自己的预期，该公司能够报告射频、汽车和物联网的年收入总计超过100亿美元，这对高通来说是一个伟大的里程碑，与2019财年相比增长了一倍多。</blockquote> This clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.<blockquote>这清楚地表明，高通的多元化战略进展顺利，执行情况良好，这增强了对未来增长目标的信心。除此之外，目前的芯片短缺也在影响高通的业务，就像业内其他公司一样，这使得高通最近的增长更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote> Regarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.<blockquote>在股东薪酬政策方面，上一财年，高通进行了近34亿美元的股票回购，并派发了30亿美元的股息。因此，其股东总资本回报达64亿美元，占其利润的70%以上。然而，其股息收益率仅为 1.5% 左右，因此我认为高通主要是一家 “成长型 ”公司，而收入还不足以成为购买高通股票的理由。</blockquote> Qualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.<blockquote>高通对下一季度的前景也是乐观的，该公司预计营收将超过 100 亿美元，稀释后每股收益在 2.53-2.73 美元之间。尽管高通的业务有一定的季节性，但第一季度通常是一个更强劲的季度，但这一前景意味着年收入将接近 400 亿美元，比上一财年增长 19%。</blockquote> This is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.<blockquote>这符合华尔街目前的预期，因为目前的共识是 2022 财年的营收为 395 亿美元，这表明高通最近的增长不是暂时的。</blockquote> On the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently thatApple(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.<blockquote>另一方面，正如我在之前的分析中强调的潜在风险，最近又有传言称苹果(AAPL) 将在 2023 年使用自己的 5G 调制解调器芯片，而不是高通的芯片。很难量化高通将因此损失多少收入，但肯定会是重大的，并且是投资者应该意识到的中期收入和盈利增长的潜在阻力。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.<blockquote>尽管如此，该公司最近在投资者日表明，其业务很容易受到一些长期增长趋势的影响，例如物联网或5G驱动的汽车和工业连接。这对其未来几年的增长前景来说是个好兆头，也可以减轻失去苹果部分业务的影响。</blockquote> Investor Day<blockquote>投资者日</blockquote> As I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.<blockquote>正如我之前在高通公司讨论过的那样，考虑到该公司近年来已经很好地调整了产品组合，以适应未来几年移动行业以外对这些无线技术的预期更高需求，该公司完全有能力从 5G 和物联网的长期增长趋势中受益。</blockquote> Its growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.<blockquote>高通的增长战略一直是实现产品多元化，以便为更多行业和不同类型的客户（即汽车或工业领域）提供解决方案和产品，从而增加高通的总目标市场和更高的长期增长前景，而不是过度依赖移动行业。</blockquote> The company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.<blockquote>由于正在进行的数字化转型，该公司拥有几项移动和连接技术，这些技术具有巨大的增长前景，预计未来不会放缓。事实上，在最近的投资者日，高通表示，其总潜在市场预计将在未来十年大幅扩张，从目前的约 1000 亿美元增加到 2030 年的约 7000 亿美元。这是因为预计连接到互联网的设备数量不断增加，会产生大量数据，这将为公司未来的发展提供强劲的推动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9b8a9143bcaf8706b35feb39aac5ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Qualcomm.<blockquote>资料来源：高通。</blockquote> Qualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.<blockquote>高通还再次讨论了其横跨手机以外几个终端市场的技术，在我看来，物联网、汽车或虚拟现实设备对公司来说仍然相对较小，但在未来几年将成为高通业务的重要组成部分。例如，高通的目标是到 2024 财年物联网年收入约为 90 亿美元，而去年为 50 亿美元，而在汽车领域，预计五年内将从去年的 10 亿美元年收入增长到约 35 亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe04cb81f8fa2aba439f6f5309780c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Qualcomm.<blockquote>资料来源：高通。</blockquote> In the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.<blockquote>在移动领域，高通也看到了5G带来的良好长期增长前景，预计到2024财年，5G手机在总出货量中的份额将逐渐增加到85%左右，是去年总出货量的两倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/552a1a716059d719fc6e64b861f09a8d\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Qualcomm.<blockquote>资料来源：高通。</blockquote> Regarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.<blockquote>关于其资本结构和股东薪酬政策，高通打算维持其将大部分自由现金流分配给股东的政策，包括增加股息和机会主义股票回购。由于该公司的财务杠杆很强，从 2021 财年末的净债务与 EBITDA 的比率低于 0.5 倍来看，它不需要保留太多现金，因此我预计高通将在未来几年内将接近 100% 的自由现金流分配给股东。</blockquote> However, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.<blockquote>然而，如果公司寻求收购，特别是如果它进行主要通过债务融资的大型收购，这种情况可能会发生变化。这将增加公司的财务杠杆率，很可能在随后的几年里，公司的战略会转向降低杠杆率，直到再次实现像今天这样强劲的资产负债表。</blockquote> Estimates &amp; Valuation<blockquote>估计及估值</blockquote> Regarding medium-term&nbsp;estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.<blockquote>关于中期预测，高通未来四年的收入预计将以每年 7.3% 左右的速度增长，与 2021 财年相比将大幅放缓。我认为这些都是保守的估计，如果经营势头保持强劲，未来几个月仍有向上修正的潜力。</blockquote> For the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.<blockquote>2025 财年的收入预计约为 440 亿美元，考虑到 2022 财年的收入预计约为 400 亿美元，这个数字似乎太低了。我比目前的共识更乐观，预计到 2025 财年收入将达到 500 亿美元左右，预计 2023 财年至 2025 财年期间的年收入增长率约为 7-8%，我认为这仍然相当保守。</blockquote> Its bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.<blockquote>据我估计，到 2025 财年，该公司的利润预计将增至 140 亿美元以上，略高于共识，因为我预计收入会更高，这意味着到 2025 财年，每股收益将达到 12 美元左右。</blockquote> Regarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.<blockquote>关于估值，我的方法是研究未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股在两到四年的时间范围内是否有上涨潜力。因此，我使用 2025 财年的预测来判断高通的股票在中期内是否有上涨潜力。</blockquote> Based on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.<blockquote>根据高通公司到 2025 财年的每股收益估计为 12 美元，以及过去几年混合远期收益（未来 12 个月）17.3 倍的历史估值倍数，我对高通公司到 2024 年 9 月的目标价为每股 207 美元。</blockquote> This means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.<blockquote>这意味着，根据这些假设，高通未来三年的上涨潜力约为 15%，这并不令人印象深刻，也表明其中期增长的很大一部分已经反映在其股价上。</blockquote> Note that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.<blockquote>请注意，在过去两年中，高通的远期市盈率有些波动，在远期市盈率的 13-22 倍之间波动。当我写上一篇关于高通的文章时，其股价处于该区间的底部，该股显然值得买入，而现在的交易价格接近其历史价值。这意味着中期有更大的上行潜力，因为高通显然处于有利地位，可以从 5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接中受益，因此未来几年有可能将评级重新评级至更高的倍数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb82ba4ac66c3ed8128484453fc4730c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Bloomberg.<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社。</blockquote> Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Qualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.<blockquote>高通的经营势头在最近几个季度有了明显改善，未来几年的增长前景良好，因为该公司的产品多元化战略进展顺利，预计将支持未来几年的增长。</blockquote> However, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.<blockquote>然而，随着公司最近的财报和投资者日的公布，该公司股价的基本面迅速改善，现在的上涨潜力比几个月前更加有限。接触高通的投资者应该 “持有”，并在未来可能出现的回调中买入更多。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174337163","content_text":"Summary\n\nQualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.\nIts recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.\nAfter a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.\n\nG0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nQUALCOMM(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.\nBackground\nAbout two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing Apple’s(AAPL) modem business.\nSince my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.\nSource: Seeking Alpha.\nAfter a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.\nRecent Earnings\nQualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.\nFor the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.\nIn FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).\nSource: Qualcomm.\nQualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nDespite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.\nI see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.\nThis clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.\nRegarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.\nQualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.\nThis is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.\nOn the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently thatApple(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.\nNevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.\nInvestor Day\nAs I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.\nIts growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.\nThe company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nQualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nIn the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nRegarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.\nHowever, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.\nEstimates & Valuation\nRegarding medium-term estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.\nFor the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.\nIts bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.\nRegarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.\nBased on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.\nThis means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.\nNote that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.\nSource: Bloomberg.\nBottom Line\nQualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.\nHowever, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4234,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/877117231"}