OngOng
2021-11-17
Tesla again!
It Isn’t Just Tesla’s Stock That Needs to Slow Down<blockquote>需要放缓的不仅仅是特斯拉的股票</blockquote>
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Now they are valued at more than $2 trillion. Tesla has jumped from third place to an enormous lead, and this month electric-vehicle makers Rivian and Lucid replacedHondaand Ferrari in the ranking. Rivian’s stock has more than doubled since itsinitial public offering last Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，中国以外市值排名前 10 的汽车制造商总价值约为 6800 亿美元。现在它们的价值超过2万亿美元。特斯拉已从第三名跃升至巨大领先位置，本月电动汽车制造商Rivian和 Lucid 取代了本田和法拉利。自上周三首次公开募股以来，Rivian的股价已经上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> This extraordinary surge in market value, which the changes in the pecking order suggest is mainly related to EVs, is almost impossible to rationalize. The earnings potential of a mature industry can’t have tripled. It is possible that EVs will eventually be more profitable than gas-powered ones—Tesla’s 14.6% operating margin in the third quarter showed the potential—but three times more is a wild stretch.</p><p><blockquote>这种市值的非凡飙升，从品级顺序的变化来看主要与电动汽车有关，几乎不可能合理化。一个成熟行业的盈利潜力不可能增加两倍。电动汽车最终有可能比汽油动力汽车更有利可图--特斯拉第三季度 14.6% 的营业利润率显示了这种潜力--但三倍的利润率是一个疯狂的过程。</blockquote></p><p> The more difficult question, one that generates more heat among investors than perhaps any other right now, is which companies are more overvalued. Is it Tesla, Rivian and Lucid, which will have to grow exponentially to live up to valuations that have nothing to do with their current sales? Or is it incumbent giants like Volkswagen and Toyota,which are in different ways struggling to come to terms with EVs?</p><p><blockquote>更困难的问题是哪些公司被高估了，这个问题可能比目前任何其他问题都更能引起投资者的关注。特斯拉、Rivian和 Lucid 是否必须呈指数级增长才能达到与其当前销售额无关的估值？或者是像大众和丰田这样的现有巨头，它们以不同的方式努力与电动汽车达成协议？</blockquote></p><p> Like simple market-value comparisons—Tesla is now worth four Toyotas!—conventional valuation multiples flag the EV specialists as overvalued. Tesla stock trades at 127 times forward earnings compared with less than 10 for most traditional car makers. Having just started commercial production, Rivian and Lucid don’t even have meaningful financial numbers to compare their $100 billion-plus market values to—just business plans.</p><p><blockquote>就像简单的市值比较一样——特斯拉现在值四辆丰田汽车!—传统估值倍数将电动汽车专家标记为估值过高。特斯拉股票的预期市盈率为 127 倍，而大多数传统汽车制造商的预期市盈率不到 10 倍。Rivian和 Lucid 刚刚开始商业生产，他们甚至没有有意义的财务数据来将其 1000 多亿美元的市值与商业计划进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> But looking further into the future, as today’s record-lowreal yieldson safe assets encourage, it is also easy to see old-school manufacturers as overvalued. The likes ofGeneral MotorsandFordhaveannounced eye-catching EV investmentsfunded by their conventional-car profits, and investors have rewarded their boldness. Both stocks are close to decade highs. But they have yet to talk about the challenge of winding down their vast combustion-engine operations. As EVs take market share, a reckoning will begin that may make clearer to investors the costs associated with this technological transition for a heavily unionized industry.</p><p><blockquote>但进一步展望未来，正如当今创纪录的实际收益率所鼓舞的那样，老派制造商也很容易被高估。通用汽车和福特等公司宣布了引人注目的电动汽车投资，资金来自传统汽车利润，投资者对他们的大胆行为给予了奖励。两只股票均接近十年高点。但他们还没有谈论关闭庞大的内燃机业务的挑战。随着电动汽车占据市场份额，一场清算将开始，这可能会让投资者更清楚地了解工会化严重的行业与这种技术转型相关的成本。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s valuation only really adds up if it hits its target production capacity of 20 million vehicles a year by 2030, and at very healthy margins.Elon Musk’s ambition is hubristic given the problems car makers have faced historically when they have approached even the 10 million mark—think of VW’s diesel scandal, Toyota’s unintended acceleration, the unraveling of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的估值只有在到 2030 年达到每年 2000 万辆汽车的目标产能，而且利润率非常健康的情况下，才会真正增加。考虑到汽车制造商历史上在接近 1000 万辆大关时所面临的问题--想想大众的柴油丑闻、丰田的意外加速、雷诺-日产-三菱联盟的瓦解，埃隆-马斯克的野心是傲慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Yet it isn’t unprecedented for a disrupter to take a disproportionate share of industry profits for a surprisingly long period, says Philippe Houchois, an analyst at Jefferies who rates Tesla a buy. Ford did so in the 1910s and Toyota in the 1970s. Both companies brought a new simplicity to making cars, as Tesla also wants to. Toyota’s edge in traditional mass-market auto manufacturing persists to this day in the form of industry-leading margins.</p><p><blockquote>然而，杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师菲利普-胡舒瓦（Philippe Houchois）将特斯拉评级为买入，他说，颠覆者在出人意料的长时间内攫取不成比例的行业利润份额并非史无前例。福特在20世纪10年代这样做，丰田在20世纪70年代这样做。正如特斯拉所希望的那样，两家公司都为汽车制造带来了新的简单性。丰田在传统大众市场汽车制造领域的优势一直延续至今，其利润率处于行业领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> Passions run high in this debate, which time will settle only slowly. The one thing that seems clear now is that investors overall are far from adequately discounting the unusual level of uncertainty about what the car industry will look like in 2030. When the fog gets thick, speeding up with excitement isn’t the best response.</p><p><blockquote>这场辩论充满了激情，时间只会慢慢沉淀下来。现在看来很清楚的一件事是，投资者总体上还远未充分考虑到 2030 年汽车行业前景的异常不确定性。当雾变得浓重时，兴奋地加速并不是最好的应对方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It Isn’t Just Tesla’s Stock That Needs to Slow Down<blockquote>需要放缓的不仅仅是特斯拉的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt Isn’t Just Tesla’s Stock That Needs to Slow Down<blockquote>需要放缓的不仅仅是特斯拉的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-17 19:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Whatever your view on Tesla, pulling money out of the car industry right now makes sense.</p><p><blockquote>无论你对特斯拉有何看法，现在从汽车行业撤资都是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, the world’s top 10 auto makers by market value outside China were together worth about $680 billion. Now they are valued at more than $2 trillion. Tesla has jumped from third place to an enormous lead, and this month electric-vehicle makers Rivian and Lucid replacedHondaand Ferrari in the ranking. Rivian’s stock has more than doubled since itsinitial public offering last Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，中国以外市值排名前 10 的汽车制造商总价值约为 6800 亿美元。现在它们的价值超过2万亿美元。特斯拉已从第三名跃升至巨大领先位置，本月电动汽车制造商Rivian和 Lucid 取代了本田和法拉利。自上周三首次公开募股以来，Rivian的股价已经上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> This extraordinary surge in market value, which the changes in the pecking order suggest is mainly related to EVs, is almost impossible to rationalize. The earnings potential of a mature industry can’t have tripled. It is possible that EVs will eventually be more profitable than gas-powered ones—Tesla’s 14.6% operating margin in the third quarter showed the potential—but three times more is a wild stretch.</p><p><blockquote>这种市值的非凡飙升，从品级顺序的变化来看主要与电动汽车有关，几乎不可能合理化。一个成熟行业的盈利潜力不可能增加两倍。电动汽车最终有可能比汽油动力汽车更有利可图--特斯拉第三季度 14.6% 的营业利润率显示了这种潜力--但三倍的利润率是一个疯狂的过程。</blockquote></p><p> The more difficult question, one that generates more heat among investors than perhaps any other right now, is which companies are more overvalued. Is it Tesla, Rivian and Lucid, which will have to grow exponentially to live up to valuations that have nothing to do with their current sales? Or is it incumbent giants like Volkswagen and Toyota,which are in different ways struggling to come to terms with EVs?</p><p><blockquote>更困难的问题是哪些公司被高估了，这个问题可能比目前任何其他问题都更能引起投资者的关注。特斯拉、Rivian和 Lucid 是否必须呈指数级增长才能达到与其当前销售额无关的估值？或者是像大众和丰田这样的现有巨头，它们以不同的方式努力与电动汽车达成协议？</blockquote></p><p> Like simple market-value comparisons—Tesla is now worth four Toyotas!—conventional valuation multiples flag the EV specialists as overvalued. Tesla stock trades at 127 times forward earnings compared with less than 10 for most traditional car makers. Having just started commercial production, Rivian and Lucid don’t even have meaningful financial numbers to compare their $100 billion-plus market values to—just business plans.</p><p><blockquote>就像简单的市值比较一样——特斯拉现在值四辆丰田汽车!—传统估值倍数将电动汽车专家标记为估值过高。特斯拉股票的预期市盈率为 127 倍，而大多数传统汽车制造商的预期市盈率不到 10 倍。Rivian和 Lucid 刚刚开始商业生产，他们甚至没有有意义的财务数据来将其 1000 多亿美元的市值与商业计划进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> But looking further into the future, as today’s record-lowreal yieldson safe assets encourage, it is also easy to see old-school manufacturers as overvalued. The likes ofGeneral MotorsandFordhaveannounced eye-catching EV investmentsfunded by their conventional-car profits, and investors have rewarded their boldness. Both stocks are close to decade highs. But they have yet to talk about the challenge of winding down their vast combustion-engine operations. As EVs take market share, a reckoning will begin that may make clearer to investors the costs associated with this technological transition for a heavily unionized industry.</p><p><blockquote>但进一步展望未来，正如当今创纪录的实际收益率所鼓舞的那样，老派制造商也很容易被高估。通用汽车和福特等公司宣布了引人注目的电动汽车投资，资金来自传统汽车利润，投资者对他们的大胆行为给予了奖励。两只股票均接近十年高点。但他们还没有谈论关闭庞大的内燃机业务的挑战。随着电动汽车占据市场份额，一场清算将开始，这可能会让投资者更清楚地了解工会化严重的行业与这种技术转型相关的成本。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s valuation only really adds up if it hits its target production capacity of 20 million vehicles a year by 2030, and at very healthy margins.Elon Musk’s ambition is hubristic given the problems car makers have faced historically when they have approached even the 10 million mark—think of VW’s diesel scandal, Toyota’s unintended acceleration, the unraveling of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的估值只有在到 2030 年达到每年 2000 万辆汽车的目标产能，而且利润率非常健康的情况下，才会真正增加。考虑到汽车制造商历史上在接近 1000 万辆大关时所面临的问题--想想大众的柴油丑闻、丰田的意外加速、雷诺-日产-三菱联盟的瓦解，埃隆-马斯克的野心是傲慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Yet it isn’t unprecedented for a disrupter to take a disproportionate share of industry profits for a surprisingly long period, says Philippe Houchois, an analyst at Jefferies who rates Tesla a buy. Ford did so in the 1910s and Toyota in the 1970s. Both companies brought a new simplicity to making cars, as Tesla also wants to. Toyota’s edge in traditional mass-market auto manufacturing persists to this day in the form of industry-leading margins.</p><p><blockquote>然而，杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师菲利普-胡舒瓦（Philippe Houchois）将特斯拉评级为买入，他说，颠覆者在出人意料的长时间内攫取不成比例的行业利润份额并非史无前例。福特在20世纪10年代这样做，丰田在20世纪70年代这样做。正如特斯拉所希望的那样，两家公司都为汽车制造带来了新的简单性。丰田在传统大众市场汽车制造领域的优势一直延续至今，其利润率处于行业领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> Passions run high in this debate, which time will settle only slowly. The one thing that seems clear now is that investors overall are far from adequately discounting the unusual level of uncertainty about what the car industry will look like in 2030. When the fog gets thick, speeding up with excitement isn’t the best response.</p><p><blockquote>这场辩论充满了激情，时间只会慢慢沉淀下来。现在看来很清楚的一件事是，投资者总体上还远未充分考虑到 2030 年汽车行业前景的异常不确定性。当雾变得浓重时，兴奋地加速并不是最好的应对方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/it-isnt-just-teslas-stock-that-needs-to-slow-down-11637144983?siteid=yhoof2\">Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/it-isnt-just-teslas-stock-that-needs-to-slow-down-11637144983?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175308158","content_text":"Whatever your view on Tesla, pulling money out of the car industry right now makes sense.\nTwo years ago, the world’s top 10 auto makers by market value outside China were together worth about $680 billion. Now they are valued at more than $2 trillion. Tesla has jumped from third place to an enormous lead, and this month electric-vehicle makers Rivian and Lucid replacedHondaand Ferrari in the ranking. Rivian’s stock has more than doubled since itsinitial public offering last Wednesday.\nThis extraordinary surge in market value, which the changes in the pecking order suggest is mainly related to EVs, is almost impossible to rationalize. The earnings potential of a mature industry can’t have tripled. It is possible that EVs will eventually be more profitable than gas-powered ones—Tesla’s 14.6% operating margin in the third quarter showed the potential—but three times more is a wild stretch.\nThe more difficult question, one that generates more heat among investors than perhaps any other right now, is which companies are more overvalued. Is it Tesla, Rivian and Lucid, which will have to grow exponentially to live up to valuations that have nothing to do with their current sales? Or is it incumbent giants like Volkswagen and Toyota,which are in different ways struggling to come to terms with EVs?\nLike simple market-value comparisons—Tesla is now worth four Toyotas!—conventional valuation multiples flag the EV specialists as overvalued. Tesla stock trades at 127 times forward earnings compared with less than 10 for most traditional car makers. Having just started commercial production, Rivian and Lucid don’t even have meaningful financial numbers to compare their $100 billion-plus market values to—just business plans.\nBut looking further into the future, as today’s record-lowreal yieldson safe assets encourage, it is also easy to see old-school manufacturers as overvalued. The likes ofGeneral MotorsandFordhaveannounced eye-catching EV investmentsfunded by their conventional-car profits, and investors have rewarded their boldness. Both stocks are close to decade highs. But they have yet to talk about the challenge of winding down their vast combustion-engine operations. As EVs take market share, a reckoning will begin that may make clearer to investors the costs associated with this technological transition for a heavily unionized industry.\nTesla’s valuation only really adds up if it hits its target production capacity of 20 million vehicles a year by 2030, and at very healthy margins.Elon Musk’s ambition is hubristic given the problems car makers have faced historically when they have approached even the 10 million mark—think of VW’s diesel scandal, Toyota’s unintended acceleration, the unraveling of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance.\nYet it isn’t unprecedented for a disrupter to take a disproportionate share of industry profits for a surprisingly long period, says Philippe Houchois, an analyst at Jefferies who rates Tesla a buy. Ford did so in the 1910s and Toyota in the 1970s. Both companies brought a new simplicity to making cars, as Tesla also wants to. Toyota’s edge in traditional mass-market auto manufacturing persists to this day in the form of industry-leading margins.\nPassions run high in this debate, which time will settle only slowly. The one thing that seems clear now is that investors overall are far from adequately discounting the unusual level of uncertainty about what the car industry will look like in 2030. 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