WanEH
2021-09-17
Good
Buy Micron Before It's Too Late<blockquote>在为时已晚之前购买美光科技</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
3
6
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":884169199,"tweetId":"884169199","gmtCreate":1631868080311,"gmtModify":1632805693085,"author":{"id":4089383496572850,"idStr":"4089383496572850","authorId":4089383496572850,"authorIdStr":"4089383496572850","name":"WanEH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f13510c4daf7c6eff3a61591fdca817","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":27,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884169199","repostId":1179511931,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179511931","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631867750,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179511931?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 16:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy Micron Before It's Too Late<blockquote>在为时已晚之前购买美光科技</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179511931","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Micron just fell into negative territory for the year.\nBut, Micron’s revenues and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Micron just fell into negative territory for the year.</li> <li>But, Micron’s revenues and gross margins are still in a period of expansion.</li> <li>ASP growth in DRAM and NAND and increased bit shipments could push Micron’s margin closer to 50% in the fourth quarter.</li> <li>Micron’s growth is cheap.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6943b055b8a3f717a6e1f6c038c065\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美光科技的股价今年刚刚跌至负值。</li><li>但是，美光的收入和毛利率仍处于扩张期。</li><li>DRAM和NAND的平均售价增长以及位出货量的增加可能会推动美光第四季度的利润率接近50%。</li><li>美光的增长很便宜。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Micron Technology's (MU) commercial performance is excellent, the firm’s shares have trended downwards since April. But with Micron set to open its books for the fourth quarter at the end of September, the memory company could initiate a new upleg.<b>Micron’s growth has a discount valuation</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管美光科技(MU)的商业业绩非常出色，但该公司的股价自4月份以来一直呈下跌趋势。但随着美光科技将于9月底公布第四季度账目，这家内存公司可能会启动新的上涨。<b>美光科技的增长估值有折扣</b></blockquote></p><p> There is a big disconnect between Micron’s business and stock performance. Although the memory firm has enjoyed strengthening revenue growth in its main DRAM business and higher gross margins in FY 2021, shares of Micron have not performed nearly as well. Micron now posts a negative return of 1.8% year to date, but the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings card, set to be put on the table on September 28, 2021, could re-energize the shares.</p><p><blockquote>美光的业务与股票表现之间存在很大脱节。尽管这家内存公司在2021财年的主要DRAM业务收入增长强劲，毛利率也较高，但美光科技的股价表现却差强人意。美光科技今年迄今的负回报率为1.8%，但该公司将于2021年9月28日公布的第四季度收益卡可能会重振股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c829571acfd54e941f1e37db53c201\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based off of Micron’s commercial scorecard for the third quarter, the memory firm is in its best shape in years. Micron’s third-quarter revenues soared 36% year over year to $7.4B. The big driver of Micron’s revenue growth this year has been the DRAM business which benefits from strong demand from end markets and increasing average selling prices/ASPs. Micron’s DRAM business generated revenues of $5.4B in the third quarter, showing an increase of 52% year over year and a 23% top line improvement over the prior quarter. DRAM revenues generated 73% of all revenues for the firm and while bit shipments increased only slightly in FQ3’21, average DRAM selling prices jumped 20% quarter over quarter, strongly supporting Micron’s revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据美光科技第三季度的商业记分卡，这家内存公司正处于多年来最好的状态。美光科技第三季度收入同比飙升36%至$7.4 B。美光科技今年收入增长的主要驱动力是DRAM业务，该业务受益于终端市场的强劲需求和不断上涨的平均售价/ASP。美光科技的DRAM业务第三季度收入为$5.4 B，同比增长52%，营收较上一季度增长23%。DRAM收入占该公司总收入的73%，虽然21年第三季度位出货量仅略有增长，但DRAM平均售价环比上涨20%，有力支持了美光的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s second business, the NAND segment, saw relatively moderate revenue growth of 9% year over year to $1.8B in the third quarter and it is not nearly as important as the DRAM business regarding revenue contribution. The NAND segment represents just 24% of Micron’s total revenues, but the percentage is set to increase going forward as the firm accelerates the roll-out of its new 176-layer NAND node which promises better performance and higher read/write speeds compared to previous gen technology.</p><p><blockquote>美光的第二项业务NAND业务第三季度收入同比增长9%至$1.8 B，相对温和，就收入贡献而言，其重要性远不如DRAM业务。NAND部门仅占美光总收入的24%，但随着该公司加速推出新的176层NAND节点，这一比例将会增加，与上一代相比，该节点有望提供更好的性能和更高的读/写速度技术。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s earnings card for the fourth quarter is just three weeks away, which makes this a good time to discuss what we can expect from Micron’s last fiscal quarter of the year.</p><p><blockquote>距离美光科技第四季度财报仅三周时间，这是讨论我们对美光科技今年最后一个财季的预期的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Based off of Micron’s guidance, the firm expects sustained business momentum in the fourth-quarter, with revenues expected to shoot up to $8.2B +/- $200 million and gross margins to grow to 47.0% +/- 1%. If Micron hits the base-case forecast, the memory firm is set to increase its revenues 10% quarter over quarter and expand its gross margin by 4.1 PP. In the high case, Micron could generate $8.4B in fourth-quarter revenues (13% quarter over quarter growth) and gross margins of 48.0%, signaling an increase of 5.1 PP, quarter over quarter.</p><p><blockquote>根据美光科技的指引，该公司预计第四季度业务势头将持续，收入预计将飙升至82亿美元+/-2亿美元，毛利率将增长至47.0%+/-1%。如果美光科技达到基本预测，这家内存公司的收入将环比增长10%，毛利率将提高4.1个百分点。在最高情况下，美光第四季度的收入可能为$8.4 B（环比增长13%），毛利率为48.0%，环比增长5.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d89b8802b7996741e4b60b54a54845\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"546\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Micron</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：美光</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is likely that end markets remained strong in Micron’s fourth quarter - Samsung and SK Hynix forecasted strong memory chip demand for the second half of the year (Source 1 and Source 2) - and, because of this, that both DRAM and NAND ASPs continued to see quarter over quarter growth. Samsung is the world's largest DRAM memory chip manufacturer by sales and market share, followed by SK Hynix and then Micron. All three companies saw a boost to their earnings in FY 2021 due to strong market conditions in memory chip markets.</p><p><blockquote>美光第四季度终端市场可能依然强劲——三星和SK海力士预测下半年存储芯片需求强劲（来源1和来源2）——正因为如此，DRAM和NAND的平均售价都继续增长。季度环比增长。按销售额和市场份额计算，三星是全球最大的DRAM存储芯片制造商，其次是SK海力士，然后是美光。由于存储芯片市场强劲的市场状况，这三家公司在2021财年的盈利都有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e283b9bc8c553794392443dd078baf1f\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TrendForce, Pulsenews</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TrendForce、Pulsenews</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The DRAM market is still in a severe supply shortage which is why Micron's average selling prices surged 20% in the last quarter. Micron has said that it expects the chip supply crunch is going to drag into 2022. The supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic and resulted when a quicker than expected rebound in chip demand from the auto industry coincided with surging demand for consumer electronics. By some estimates, the supply shortage could last until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>DRAM市场仍处于严重的供应短缺状态，这也是美光上季度平均售价飙升20%的原因。美光科技表示，预计芯片供应紧缩将持续到2022年。供应短缺的根源在于COVID-19大流行，是由于汽车行业芯片需求反弹快于预期，而消费电子产品需求激增。据估计，供应短缺可能会持续到2023年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I don’t expect strengthening DRAM ASP growth for the fourth quarter, but Micron could still see mid-single digit ASP growth in its core DRAM market. For that reason, I estimate that Micron will see an increase in the percentage of revenues generated from DRAM product sales. In FQ3’21, Micron generated 73% of sales from DRAM shipments and this percentage is poised to rise even higher in FQ4’21. Depending on how resilient DRAM product pricing was in Micron’s fourth quarter, the firm could move closer to a 50% gross margin and issue a new, strong forecast for FQ1’22.</p><p><blockquote>我预计第四季度DRAM ASP增长不会加强，但美光在其核心DRAM市场的ASP仍可能实现中个位数增长。因此，我估计美光来自DRAM产品销售的收入比例将会增加。在21年第3季度，美光73%的销售额来自DRAM出货量，这一比例在21年第4季度将进一步上升。根据美光第四季度DRAM产品定价的弹性，该公司的毛利率可能会接近50%，并对22年第一季度发布新的强劲预测。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes will likely have seen higher shipment volumes in the fourth quarter. Longer term, I expect Micron’s NAND business to see stronger growth and Micron’s DRAM business to decelerate as the supply shortage in the DRAM market gets resolved and Micron accelerates shipments of its new 176-layer NAND node. Because of Micron’s investments in NAND innovation, Micron could grow the share of NAND-generated revenues from 24% in FQ3’21 to 30-35% over the next 1 or 2 years.</p><p><blockquote>美光的1-alpha DRAM和176层NAND节点在第四季度的出货量可能会更高。从长远来看，我预计随着DRAM市场供应短缺的解决以及美光加速其新型176层NAND节点的出货，美光的NAND业务将出现更强劲的增长，而美光的DRAM业务将减速。由于美光在NAND创新方面的投资，美光可能会在未来1到2年内将NAND产生的收入份额从21年第三季度的24%增加到30-35%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron is growing rapidly and there is no indication that this growth is slowing down. Micron is set to add one billion dollars to its top line in the fourth quarter alone, and growth, so far, is still strengthening. Estimates call for $37.0B in revenues (33% year over year growth) and $11.20 in EPS (87% year over year growth) for FY 2022, implying that Micron’s growth is undervalued at an earnings multiplier factor around seven. Micron’s estimates are rising and refreshed updates after the release of the FQ4’21 earnings card could create fertile ground for a new upleg.</p><p><blockquote>美光正在快速增长，没有迹象表明这种增长正在放缓。仅第四季度，美光科技的营收就将增加10亿美元，而且到目前为止，增长仍在加强。预计看涨期权2022财年的收入为$37.0 B（同比增长33%），每股收益为$11.20（同比增长87%），这意味着美光科技的增长被低估，盈利乘数系数约为7。美光科技的预期正在上升，21年第四季度收益卡发布后的更新可能会为新的上涨创造肥沃的土壤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d32e2254ff113771bc630708156433b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to risk, the supply shortage in Micron’s DRAM business fueled DRAM ASP growth this year, but as the market corrects this imbalance, DRAM prices could come down substantially... which is a risk for the stock. Since DRAM sales account for 73% of Micron’s total revenues, falling average DRAM selling prices are poised to weigh on Micron’s commercial performance more than a similar decrease in NAND ASPs would. However, Micron could, potentially, counter some of these DRAM pricing risks by increasing shipments of its newest NAND products. As the company gets ready to scale its NAND business, a decline in DRAM revenues could be counterbalanced by higher NAND revenues. Besides falling DRAM prices, a slowdown in revenue growth and lower gross margins would indicate the end of the current semiconductor cycle and lower capital/stock returns.</p><p><blockquote>转向风险，美光DRAM业务的供应短缺推动了今年DRAM ASP的增长，但随着市场纠正这种不平衡，DRAM价格可能会大幅下降……这对股票来说是一个风险。由于DRAM销售额占美光总收入的73%，因此DRAM平均售价下降对美光商业业绩的影响将超过NAND平均售价的类似下降。然而，美光有可能通过增加其最新NAND产品的出货量来应对其中一些DRAM定价风险。随着该公司准备扩大其NAND业务，DRAM收入的下降可能会被NAND收入的增加所抵消。除了DRAM价格下跌之外，收入增长放缓和毛利率下降将表明当前半导体周期的结束和资本/股票回报的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> For the last fiscal quarter of the year, I expect Micron to table a very strong earnings card with revenues coming in at the top of guidance and gross margins potentially exceeding Micron’s own forecast… which could push shares of Micron into a new upleg.</p><p><blockquote>对于今年最后一个财季，我预计美光科技将公布一份非常强劲的盈利卡，收入将高于指导值，毛利率可能会超过美光科技自己的预测……这可能会推动美光科技的股价进入新的上涨阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Due to strength in consumer end markets, ASPs in both DRAM and NAND segments likely grew at a positive rate in Micron’s fourth quarter. Increased bit shipments for 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes and a DRAM supply shortage all help to set Micron up for continual growth in FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>由于消费终端市场的强劲，美光第四季度DRAM和NAND细分市场的平均售价可能都呈正增长。1-alpha DRAM和176层NAND节点的位出货量增加以及DRAM供应短缺都有助于美光在2022财年实现持续增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy Micron Before It's Too Late<blockquote>在为时已晚之前购买美光科技</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy Micron Before It's Too Late<blockquote>在为时已晚之前购买美光科技</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 16:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Micron just fell into negative territory for the year.</li> <li>But, Micron’s revenues and gross margins are still in a period of expansion.</li> <li>ASP growth in DRAM and NAND and increased bit shipments could push Micron’s margin closer to 50% in the fourth quarter.</li> <li>Micron’s growth is cheap.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6943b055b8a3f717a6e1f6c038c065\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美光科技的股价今年刚刚跌至负值。</li><li>但是，美光的收入和毛利率仍处于扩张期。</li><li>DRAM和NAND的平均售价增长以及位出货量的增加可能会推动美光第四季度的利润率接近50%。</li><li>美光的增长很便宜。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Micron Technology's (MU) commercial performance is excellent, the firm’s shares have trended downwards since April. But with Micron set to open its books for the fourth quarter at the end of September, the memory company could initiate a new upleg.<b>Micron’s growth has a discount valuation</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管美光科技(MU)的商业业绩非常出色，但该公司的股价自4月份以来一直呈下跌趋势。但随着美光科技将于9月底公布第四季度账目，这家内存公司可能会启动新的上涨。<b>美光科技的增长估值有折扣</b></blockquote></p><p> There is a big disconnect between Micron’s business and stock performance. Although the memory firm has enjoyed strengthening revenue growth in its main DRAM business and higher gross margins in FY 2021, shares of Micron have not performed nearly as well. Micron now posts a negative return of 1.8% year to date, but the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings card, set to be put on the table on September 28, 2021, could re-energize the shares.</p><p><blockquote>美光的业务与股票表现之间存在很大脱节。尽管这家内存公司在2021财年的主要DRAM业务收入增长强劲，毛利率也较高，但美光科技的股价表现却差强人意。美光科技今年迄今的负回报率为1.8%，但该公司将于2021年9月28日公布的第四季度收益卡可能会重振股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c829571acfd54e941f1e37db53c201\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based off of Micron’s commercial scorecard for the third quarter, the memory firm is in its best shape in years. Micron’s third-quarter revenues soared 36% year over year to $7.4B. The big driver of Micron’s revenue growth this year has been the DRAM business which benefits from strong demand from end markets and increasing average selling prices/ASPs. Micron’s DRAM business generated revenues of $5.4B in the third quarter, showing an increase of 52% year over year and a 23% top line improvement over the prior quarter. DRAM revenues generated 73% of all revenues for the firm and while bit shipments increased only slightly in FQ3’21, average DRAM selling prices jumped 20% quarter over quarter, strongly supporting Micron’s revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据美光科技第三季度的商业记分卡，这家内存公司正处于多年来最好的状态。美光科技第三季度收入同比飙升36%至$7.4 B。美光科技今年收入增长的主要驱动力是DRAM业务，该业务受益于终端市场的强劲需求和不断上涨的平均售价/ASP。美光科技的DRAM业务第三季度收入为$5.4 B，同比增长52%，营收较上一季度增长23%。DRAM收入占该公司总收入的73%，虽然21年第三季度位出货量仅略有增长，但DRAM平均售价环比上涨20%，有力支持了美光的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s second business, the NAND segment, saw relatively moderate revenue growth of 9% year over year to $1.8B in the third quarter and it is not nearly as important as the DRAM business regarding revenue contribution. The NAND segment represents just 24% of Micron’s total revenues, but the percentage is set to increase going forward as the firm accelerates the roll-out of its new 176-layer NAND node which promises better performance and higher read/write speeds compared to previous gen technology.</p><p><blockquote>美光的第二项业务NAND业务第三季度收入同比增长9%至$1.8 B，相对温和，就收入贡献而言，其重要性远不如DRAM业务。NAND部门仅占美光总收入的24%，但随着该公司加速推出新的176层NAND节点，这一比例将会增加，与上一代相比，该节点有望提供更好的性能和更高的读/写速度技术。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s earnings card for the fourth quarter is just three weeks away, which makes this a good time to discuss what we can expect from Micron’s last fiscal quarter of the year.</p><p><blockquote>距离美光科技第四季度财报仅三周时间，这是讨论我们对美光科技今年最后一个财季的预期的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Based off of Micron’s guidance, the firm expects sustained business momentum in the fourth-quarter, with revenues expected to shoot up to $8.2B +/- $200 million and gross margins to grow to 47.0% +/- 1%. If Micron hits the base-case forecast, the memory firm is set to increase its revenues 10% quarter over quarter and expand its gross margin by 4.1 PP. In the high case, Micron could generate $8.4B in fourth-quarter revenues (13% quarter over quarter growth) and gross margins of 48.0%, signaling an increase of 5.1 PP, quarter over quarter.</p><p><blockquote>根据美光科技的指引，该公司预计第四季度业务势头将持续，收入预计将飙升至82亿美元+/-2亿美元，毛利率将增长至47.0%+/-1%。如果美光科技达到基本预测，这家内存公司的收入将环比增长10%，毛利率将提高4.1个百分点。在最高情况下，美光第四季度的收入可能为$8.4 B（环比增长13%），毛利率为48.0%，环比增长5.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d89b8802b7996741e4b60b54a54845\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"546\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Micron</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：美光</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is likely that end markets remained strong in Micron’s fourth quarter - Samsung and SK Hynix forecasted strong memory chip demand for the second half of the year (Source 1 and Source 2) - and, because of this, that both DRAM and NAND ASPs continued to see quarter over quarter growth. Samsung is the world's largest DRAM memory chip manufacturer by sales and market share, followed by SK Hynix and then Micron. All three companies saw a boost to their earnings in FY 2021 due to strong market conditions in memory chip markets.</p><p><blockquote>美光第四季度终端市场可能依然强劲——三星和SK海力士预测下半年存储芯片需求强劲（来源1和来源2）——正因为如此，DRAM和NAND的平均售价都继续增长。季度环比增长。按销售额和市场份额计算，三星是全球最大的DRAM存储芯片制造商，其次是SK海力士，然后是美光。由于存储芯片市场强劲的市场状况，这三家公司在2021财年的盈利都有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e283b9bc8c553794392443dd078baf1f\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TrendForce, Pulsenews</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TrendForce、Pulsenews</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The DRAM market is still in a severe supply shortage which is why Micron's average selling prices surged 20% in the last quarter. Micron has said that it expects the chip supply crunch is going to drag into 2022. The supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic and resulted when a quicker than expected rebound in chip demand from the auto industry coincided with surging demand for consumer electronics. By some estimates, the supply shortage could last until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>DRAM市场仍处于严重的供应短缺状态，这也是美光上季度平均售价飙升20%的原因。美光科技表示，预计芯片供应紧缩将持续到2022年。供应短缺的根源在于COVID-19大流行，是由于汽车行业芯片需求反弹快于预期，而消费电子产品需求激增。据估计，供应短缺可能会持续到2023年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I don’t expect strengthening DRAM ASP growth for the fourth quarter, but Micron could still see mid-single digit ASP growth in its core DRAM market. For that reason, I estimate that Micron will see an increase in the percentage of revenues generated from DRAM product sales. In FQ3’21, Micron generated 73% of sales from DRAM shipments and this percentage is poised to rise even higher in FQ4’21. Depending on how resilient DRAM product pricing was in Micron’s fourth quarter, the firm could move closer to a 50% gross margin and issue a new, strong forecast for FQ1’22.</p><p><blockquote>我预计第四季度DRAM ASP增长不会加强，但美光在其核心DRAM市场的ASP仍可能实现中个位数增长。因此，我估计美光来自DRAM产品销售的收入比例将会增加。在21年第3季度，美光73%的销售额来自DRAM出货量，这一比例在21年第4季度将进一步上升。根据美光第四季度DRAM产品定价的弹性，该公司的毛利率可能会接近50%，并对22年第一季度发布新的强劲预测。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes will likely have seen higher shipment volumes in the fourth quarter. Longer term, I expect Micron’s NAND business to see stronger growth and Micron’s DRAM business to decelerate as the supply shortage in the DRAM market gets resolved and Micron accelerates shipments of its new 176-layer NAND node. Because of Micron’s investments in NAND innovation, Micron could grow the share of NAND-generated revenues from 24% in FQ3’21 to 30-35% over the next 1 or 2 years.</p><p><blockquote>美光的1-alpha DRAM和176层NAND节点在第四季度的出货量可能会更高。从长远来看，我预计随着DRAM市场供应短缺的解决以及美光加速其新型176层NAND节点的出货，美光的NAND业务将出现更强劲的增长，而美光的DRAM业务将减速。由于美光在NAND创新方面的投资，美光可能会在未来1到2年内将NAND产生的收入份额从21年第三季度的24%增加到30-35%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron is growing rapidly and there is no indication that this growth is slowing down. Micron is set to add one billion dollars to its top line in the fourth quarter alone, and growth, so far, is still strengthening. Estimates call for $37.0B in revenues (33% year over year growth) and $11.20 in EPS (87% year over year growth) for FY 2022, implying that Micron’s growth is undervalued at an earnings multiplier factor around seven. Micron’s estimates are rising and refreshed updates after the release of the FQ4’21 earnings card could create fertile ground for a new upleg.</p><p><blockquote>美光正在快速增长，没有迹象表明这种增长正在放缓。仅第四季度，美光科技的营收就将增加10亿美元，而且到目前为止，增长仍在加强。预计看涨期权2022财年的收入为$37.0 B（同比增长33%），每股收益为$11.20（同比增长87%），这意味着美光科技的增长被低估，盈利乘数系数约为7。美光科技的预期正在上升，21年第四季度收益卡发布后的更新可能会为新的上涨创造肥沃的土壤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d32e2254ff113771bc630708156433b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to risk, the supply shortage in Micron’s DRAM business fueled DRAM ASP growth this year, but as the market corrects this imbalance, DRAM prices could come down substantially... which is a risk for the stock. Since DRAM sales account for 73% of Micron’s total revenues, falling average DRAM selling prices are poised to weigh on Micron’s commercial performance more than a similar decrease in NAND ASPs would. However, Micron could, potentially, counter some of these DRAM pricing risks by increasing shipments of its newest NAND products. As the company gets ready to scale its NAND business, a decline in DRAM revenues could be counterbalanced by higher NAND revenues. Besides falling DRAM prices, a slowdown in revenue growth and lower gross margins would indicate the end of the current semiconductor cycle and lower capital/stock returns.</p><p><blockquote>转向风险，美光DRAM业务的供应短缺推动了今年DRAM ASP的增长，但随着市场纠正这种不平衡，DRAM价格可能会大幅下降……这对股票来说是一个风险。由于DRAM销售额占美光总收入的73%，因此DRAM平均售价下降对美光商业业绩的影响将超过NAND平均售价的类似下降。然而，美光有可能通过增加其最新NAND产品的出货量来应对其中一些DRAM定价风险。随着该公司准备扩大其NAND业务，DRAM收入的下降可能会被NAND收入的增加所抵消。除了DRAM价格下跌之外，收入增长放缓和毛利率下降将表明当前半导体周期的结束和资本/股票回报的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> For the last fiscal quarter of the year, I expect Micron to table a very strong earnings card with revenues coming in at the top of guidance and gross margins potentially exceeding Micron’s own forecast… which could push shares of Micron into a new upleg.</p><p><blockquote>对于今年最后一个财季，我预计美光科技将公布一份非常强劲的盈利卡，收入将高于指导值，毛利率可能会超过美光科技自己的预测……这可能会推动美光科技的股价进入新的上涨阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Due to strength in consumer end markets, ASPs in both DRAM and NAND segments likely grew at a positive rate in Micron’s fourth quarter. Increased bit shipments for 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes and a DRAM supply shortage all help to set Micron up for continual growth in FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>由于消费终端市场的强劲，美光第四季度DRAM和NAND细分市场的平均售价可能都呈正增长。1-alpha DRAM和176层NAND节点的位出货量增加以及DRAM供应短缺都有助于美光在2022财年实现持续增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455688-buy-micron-before-its-too-late\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455688-buy-micron-before-its-too-late","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179511931","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Micron just fell into negative territory for the year.\nBut, Micron’s revenues and gross margins are still in a period of expansion.\nASP growth in DRAM and NAND and increased bit shipments could push Micron’s margin closer to 50% in the fourth quarter.\nMicron’s growth is cheap.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nWhile Micron Technology's (MU) commercial performance is excellent, the firm’s shares have trended downwards since April. But with Micron set to open its books for the fourth quarter at the end of September, the memory company could initiate a new upleg.Micron’s growth has a discount valuation\nThere is a big disconnect between Micron’s business and stock performance. Although the memory firm has enjoyed strengthening revenue growth in its main DRAM business and higher gross margins in FY 2021, shares of Micron have not performed nearly as well. Micron now posts a negative return of 1.8% year to date, but the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings card, set to be put on the table on September 28, 2021, could re-energize the shares.\nData by YCharts\nBased off of Micron’s commercial scorecard for the third quarter, the memory firm is in its best shape in years. Micron’s third-quarter revenues soared 36% year over year to $7.4B. The big driver of Micron’s revenue growth this year has been the DRAM business which benefits from strong demand from end markets and increasing average selling prices/ASPs. Micron’s DRAM business generated revenues of $5.4B in the third quarter, showing an increase of 52% year over year and a 23% top line improvement over the prior quarter. DRAM revenues generated 73% of all revenues for the firm and while bit shipments increased only slightly in FQ3’21, average DRAM selling prices jumped 20% quarter over quarter, strongly supporting Micron’s revenue growth.\nMicron’s second business, the NAND segment, saw relatively moderate revenue growth of 9% year over year to $1.8B in the third quarter and it is not nearly as important as the DRAM business regarding revenue contribution. The NAND segment represents just 24% of Micron’s total revenues, but the percentage is set to increase going forward as the firm accelerates the roll-out of its new 176-layer NAND node which promises better performance and higher read/write speeds compared to previous gen technology.\nMicron’s earnings card for the fourth quarter is just three weeks away, which makes this a good time to discuss what we can expect from Micron’s last fiscal quarter of the year.\nBased off of Micron’s guidance, the firm expects sustained business momentum in the fourth-quarter, with revenues expected to shoot up to $8.2B +/- $200 million and gross margins to grow to 47.0% +/- 1%. If Micron hits the base-case forecast, the memory firm is set to increase its revenues 10% quarter over quarter and expand its gross margin by 4.1 PP. In the high case, Micron could generate $8.4B in fourth-quarter revenues (13% quarter over quarter growth) and gross margins of 48.0%, signaling an increase of 5.1 PP, quarter over quarter.\nSource: Micron\nIt is likely that end markets remained strong in Micron’s fourth quarter - Samsung and SK Hynix forecasted strong memory chip demand for the second half of the year (Source 1 and Source 2) - and, because of this, that both DRAM and NAND ASPs continued to see quarter over quarter growth. Samsung is the world's largest DRAM memory chip manufacturer by sales and market share, followed by SK Hynix and then Micron. All three companies saw a boost to their earnings in FY 2021 due to strong market conditions in memory chip markets.\nSource: TrendForce, Pulsenews\nThe DRAM market is still in a severe supply shortage which is why Micron's average selling prices surged 20% in the last quarter. Micron has said that it expects the chip supply crunch is going to drag into 2022. The supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic and resulted when a quicker than expected rebound in chip demand from the auto industry coincided with surging demand for consumer electronics. By some estimates, the supply shortage could last until 2023.\nI don’t expect strengthening DRAM ASP growth for the fourth quarter, but Micron could still see mid-single digit ASP growth in its core DRAM market. For that reason, I estimate that Micron will see an increase in the percentage of revenues generated from DRAM product sales. In FQ3’21, Micron generated 73% of sales from DRAM shipments and this percentage is poised to rise even higher in FQ4’21. Depending on how resilient DRAM product pricing was in Micron’s fourth quarter, the firm could move closer to a 50% gross margin and issue a new, strong forecast for FQ1’22.\nMicron’s 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes will likely have seen higher shipment volumes in the fourth quarter. Longer term, I expect Micron’s NAND business to see stronger growth and Micron’s DRAM business to decelerate as the supply shortage in the DRAM market gets resolved and Micron accelerates shipments of its new 176-layer NAND node. Because of Micron’s investments in NAND innovation, Micron could grow the share of NAND-generated revenues from 24% in FQ3’21 to 30-35% over the next 1 or 2 years.\nMicron is growing rapidly and there is no indication that this growth is slowing down. Micron is set to add one billion dollars to its top line in the fourth quarter alone, and growth, so far, is still strengthening. Estimates call for $37.0B in revenues (33% year over year growth) and $11.20 in EPS (87% year over year growth) for FY 2022, implying that Micron’s growth is undervalued at an earnings multiplier factor around seven. Micron’s estimates are rising and refreshed updates after the release of the FQ4’21 earnings card could create fertile ground for a new upleg.\nData by YCharts\nTurning to risk, the supply shortage in Micron’s DRAM business fueled DRAM ASP growth this year, but as the market corrects this imbalance, DRAM prices could come down substantially... which is a risk for the stock. Since DRAM sales account for 73% of Micron’s total revenues, falling average DRAM selling prices are poised to weigh on Micron’s commercial performance more than a similar decrease in NAND ASPs would. However, Micron could, potentially, counter some of these DRAM pricing risks by increasing shipments of its newest NAND products. As the company gets ready to scale its NAND business, a decline in DRAM revenues could be counterbalanced by higher NAND revenues. Besides falling DRAM prices, a slowdown in revenue growth and lower gross margins would indicate the end of the current semiconductor cycle and lower capital/stock returns.\nConclusion\nFor the last fiscal quarter of the year, I expect Micron to table a very strong earnings card with revenues coming in at the top of guidance and gross margins potentially exceeding Micron’s own forecast… which could push shares of Micron into a new upleg.\nDue to strength in consumer end markets, ASPs in both DRAM and NAND segments likely grew at a positive rate in Micron’s fourth quarter. Increased bit shipments for 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes and a DRAM supply shortage all help to set Micron up for continual growth in FY 2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/884169199"}
精彩评论