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2021-09-17
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Apple Stock To Crumble Along With S&P 500, Says One Expert<blockquote>一位专家表示，苹果股价将与标普500一起暴跌</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":884854234,"tweetId":"884854234","gmtCreate":1631882459828,"gmtModify":1632805614207,"author":{"id":3562791266647459,"idStr":"3562791266647459","authorId":3562791266647459,"authorIdStr":"3562791266647459","name":"Atsc89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec47b1c36e59ba1ef8caac8ab619319","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like and comment</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like and comment</p></body></html>","text":"Like and comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884854234","repostId":1160944962,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160944962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631881684,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160944962?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 20:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Crumble Along With S&P 500, Says One Expert<blockquote>一位专家表示，苹果股价将与标普500一起暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160944962","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Famed portfolio manager Dan Niles thinks that Apple stock is going down, as the broad market correct","content":"<p>Famed portfolio manager Dan Niles thinks that Apple stock is going down, as the broad market corrects up to 20%. Could his bearishness come to fruition?</p><p><blockquote>著名投资组合经理丹·奈尔斯 (Dan Niles) 认为，随着大盘调整高达 20%，苹果股价正在下跌。他的悲观情绪能奏效吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock is about to take a dive alongside the rest of the market. At least this is what Satori Fund’s portfolio manager Dan Niles believes in, as he unveiled his short position on AAPL during a CNBC interview earlier this week.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票即将与市场其他股票一起暴跌。至少 Satori Fund 的投资组合经理丹-奈尔斯（Dan Niles）是这么认为的，他在本周早些时候接受 CNBC 采访时公布了自己对 AAPL 的空头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven looks at the bearish case and assesses whether Dan’s concerns might have merits.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家将探讨看跌案例，并评估丹的担忧是否有道理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab3d6af5118ba8435cff4b332c3525a5\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Dan Niles interview on Squawk Box CNBC.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 1：丹·奈尔斯在 Squawk Box CNBC 上接受采访。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>AAPL: pressure from all sides</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：来自各方的压力</b></blockquote></p><p> Dan Niles’ list of reasons why Apple stock and the S&P 500 will likely dip is long. It all starts with an assessment of the Cupertino company’s share price behavior, following the September 14 announcement of the iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>丹-奈尔斯（Dan Niles）列举了苹果股票和标普500可能下跌的原因。这一切都始于对这家库比蒂诺公司在 9 月 14 日发布 iPhone 13 后股价表现的评估。</blockquote></p><p> According to Mr. Niles, AAPL tends to succumb to sell-the-news pressures around this time of the year. His observation is well founded. The chart below,provided by Stock Rover, shows that Apple stock has underperformed the S&P 500 the most in the last few months of the year, at least over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>奈尔斯表示，苹果公司往往会在每年的这个时候屈服于抛售新闻的压力。他的观察是有根据的。下图由 Stock Rover 提供，显示苹果股票在今年最后几个月的表现逊于标普500，至少在过去十年中是如此。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5adebbd41107c35aa1e2b02a79a54ad1\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL average monthly return vs. S&P (seasonality).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL 平均月回报率与标准普尔（季节性）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Still on short term performance, the portfolio manager thinks that Apple stock is priced too aggressively ahead of what he believes will be tough COVID-19 comps. Apple delivered outstanding results during and right after the holiday period last year, as the chart below depicts. Topping such performance will be hard, if not nearly impossible.</p><p><blockquote>投资组合经理仍然从短期表现来看，他认为在他认为艰难的 COVID-19 竞争之前，苹果股票的定价过于激进。如下图所示，苹果在去年假期期间和假期后取得了出色的业绩。超越这样的性能将是困难的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af89400f036896ebbb02d811348863dc\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"364\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL total revenue growth.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 3：AAPL 总收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On this topic, experts seem to be split between a bullish majority and a bearish minority. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, would likely disagree with Dan Niles. According to the Wall Street analyst – and I tend to agree with him – the digital transformation and 5G upgrade cycle should last years, not only a few atypical pandemic months.</p><p><blockquote>在这个话题上，专家们似乎分为看涨的多数人和看跌的少数人。例如，韦德布什的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）很可能不同意丹-奈尔斯（Dan Niles）的观点。根据这位华尔街分析师的说法——我倾向于同意他的观点——数字化转型和5G升级周期应该会持续数年，而不仅仅是几个非典型的疫情月份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>S&P 500: pricey and facing headwinds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500：价格昂贵且面临阻力</b></blockquote></p><p> While Dan Niles’ bearish arguments on AAPL shares could stand alone, his pessimism towards the broad market might be the one-two punch that knocks Apple stock down. Mr. Niles sees the S&P 500 correcting between 10% and 20% by the end of this year.</p><p><blockquote>虽然丹-奈尔斯（Dan Niles）对苹果公司（AAPL）股票的看跌论点可以独立存在，但他对大盘的悲观情绪可能是击垮苹果股票的一举两得。奈尔斯预计，到今年年底，标普500将修正 10% 至 20%。</blockquote></p><p> At the top of his list of reasons why this could happen is a deadly combo: inflation, COVID-19 worries and high valuations. I sympathize with his concerns, as all three have been key risk factors for the markets since at least the beginning of this year, if not longer.</p><p><blockquote>在他列出的可能发生这种情况的原因中，最重要的是一个致命的组合：通货膨胀、COVID-19 担忧和高估值。我同情他的担忧，因为至少自今年年初以来，这三个因素一直是市场的关键风险因素，如果不是更长时间的话。</blockquote></p><p> The better news for bulls, in my view, is that none of the above is “new news” to investors. Equities have endured the headwinds very well through several months in 2021 so far, which I take as a positive sign that any potential worry may have already been priced in.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，对多头来说更好的消息是，以上这些对投资者来说都不是 “新消息”。到目前为止，股市在 2021 年的几个月里很好地抵御了逆风，我认为这是一个积极的迹象，表明任何潜在的担忧可能已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p> This is not to say, of course, that risks should be dismissed. Rather, I just don’t believe that the market or Apple stock investors will suddenly dump their positions based on old information – unless something drastic and unexpected, such as substantially higher inflation or interest rates, were to happen.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这并不是说应该忽略风险。相反，我只是不相信市场或苹果股票投资者会根据旧信息突然抛售头寸--除非发生一些剧烈和意想不到的事情，比如通货膨胀或利率大幅上升。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Crumble Along With S&P 500, Says One Expert<blockquote>一位专家表示，苹果股价将与标普500一起暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Crumble Along With S&P 500, Says One Expert<blockquote>一位专家表示，苹果股价将与标普500一起暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 20:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Famed portfolio manager Dan Niles thinks that Apple stock is going down, as the broad market corrects up to 20%. Could his bearishness come to fruition?</p><p><blockquote>著名投资组合经理丹·奈尔斯 (Dan Niles) 认为，随着大盘调整高达 20%，苹果股价正在下跌。他的悲观情绪能奏效吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock is about to take a dive alongside the rest of the market. At least this is what Satori Fund’s portfolio manager Dan Niles believes in, as he unveiled his short position on AAPL during a CNBC interview earlier this week.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票即将与市场其他股票一起暴跌。至少 Satori Fund 的投资组合经理丹-奈尔斯（Dan Niles）是这么认为的，他在本周早些时候接受 CNBC 采访时公布了自己对 AAPL 的空头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven looks at the bearish case and assesses whether Dan’s concerns might have merits.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家将探讨看跌案例，并评估丹的担忧是否有道理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab3d6af5118ba8435cff4b332c3525a5\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Dan Niles interview on Squawk Box CNBC.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 1：丹·奈尔斯在 Squawk Box CNBC 上接受采访。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>AAPL: pressure from all sides</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：来自各方的压力</b></blockquote></p><p> Dan Niles’ list of reasons why Apple stock and the S&P 500 will likely dip is long. It all starts with an assessment of the Cupertino company’s share price behavior, following the September 14 announcement of the iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>丹-奈尔斯（Dan Niles）列举了苹果股票和标普500可能下跌的原因。这一切都始于对这家库比蒂诺公司在 9 月 14 日发布 iPhone 13 后股价表现的评估。</blockquote></p><p> According to Mr. Niles, AAPL tends to succumb to sell-the-news pressures around this time of the year. His observation is well founded. The chart below,provided by Stock Rover, shows that Apple stock has underperformed the S&P 500 the most in the last few months of the year, at least over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>奈尔斯表示，苹果公司往往会在每年的这个时候屈服于抛售新闻的压力。他的观察是有根据的。下图由 Stock Rover 提供，显示苹果股票在今年最后几个月的表现逊于标普500，至少在过去十年中是如此。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5adebbd41107c35aa1e2b02a79a54ad1\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL average monthly return vs. S&P (seasonality).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL 平均月回报率与标准普尔（季节性）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Still on short term performance, the portfolio manager thinks that Apple stock is priced too aggressively ahead of what he believes will be tough COVID-19 comps. Apple delivered outstanding results during and right after the holiday period last year, as the chart below depicts. Topping such performance will be hard, if not nearly impossible.</p><p><blockquote>投资组合经理仍然从短期表现来看，他认为在他认为艰难的 COVID-19 竞争之前，苹果股票的定价过于激进。如下图所示，苹果在去年假期期间和假期后取得了出色的业绩。超越这样的性能将是困难的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af89400f036896ebbb02d811348863dc\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"364\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL total revenue growth.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 3：AAPL 总收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On this topic, experts seem to be split between a bullish majority and a bearish minority. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, would likely disagree with Dan Niles. According to the Wall Street analyst – and I tend to agree with him – the digital transformation and 5G upgrade cycle should last years, not only a few atypical pandemic months.</p><p><blockquote>在这个话题上，专家们似乎分为看涨的多数人和看跌的少数人。例如，韦德布什的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）很可能不同意丹-奈尔斯（Dan Niles）的观点。根据这位华尔街分析师的说法——我倾向于同意他的观点——数字化转型和5G升级周期应该会持续数年，而不仅仅是几个非典型的疫情月份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>S&P 500: pricey and facing headwinds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500：价格昂贵且面临阻力</b></blockquote></p><p> While Dan Niles’ bearish arguments on AAPL shares could stand alone, his pessimism towards the broad market might be the one-two punch that knocks Apple stock down. Mr. Niles sees the S&P 500 correcting between 10% and 20% by the end of this year.</p><p><blockquote>虽然丹-奈尔斯（Dan Niles）对苹果公司（AAPL）股票的看跌论点可以独立存在，但他对大盘的悲观情绪可能是击垮苹果股票的一举两得。奈尔斯预计，到今年年底，标普500将修正 10% 至 20%。</blockquote></p><p> At the top of his list of reasons why this could happen is a deadly combo: inflation, COVID-19 worries and high valuations. I sympathize with his concerns, as all three have been key risk factors for the markets since at least the beginning of this year, if not longer.</p><p><blockquote>在他列出的可能发生这种情况的原因中，最重要的是一个致命的组合：通货膨胀、COVID-19 担忧和高估值。我同情他的担忧，因为至少自今年年初以来，这三个因素一直是市场的关键风险因素，如果不是更长时间的话。</blockquote></p><p> The better news for bulls, in my view, is that none of the above is “new news” to investors. Equities have endured the headwinds very well through several months in 2021 so far, which I take as a positive sign that any potential worry may have already been priced in.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，对多头来说更好的消息是，以上这些对投资者来说都不是 “新消息”。到目前为止，股市在 2021 年的几个月里很好地抵御了逆风，我认为这是一个积极的迹象，表明任何潜在的担忧可能已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p> This is not to say, of course, that risks should be dismissed. Rather, I just don’t believe that the market or Apple stock investors will suddenly dump their positions based on old information – unless something drastic and unexpected, such as substantially higher inflation or interest rates, were to happen.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这并不是说应该忽略风险。相反，我只是不相信市场或苹果股票投资者会根据旧信息突然抛售头寸--除非发生一些剧烈和意想不到的事情，比如通货膨胀或利率大幅上升。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-to-crumble-along-with-s-p-500-says-one-expert\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-to-crumble-along-with-s-p-500-says-one-expert","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160944962","content_text":"Famed portfolio manager Dan Niles thinks that Apple stock is going down, as the broad market corrects up to 20%. Could his bearishness come to fruition?\nApple stock is about to take a dive alongside the rest of the market. At least this is what Satori Fund’s portfolio manager Dan Niles believes in, as he unveiled his short position on AAPL during a CNBC interview earlier this week.\nToday, the Apple Maven looks at the bearish case and assesses whether Dan’s concerns might have merits.\nFigure 1: Dan Niles interview on Squawk Box CNBC.\nAAPL: pressure from all sides\nDan Niles’ list of reasons why Apple stock and the S&P 500 will likely dip is long. It all starts with an assessment of the Cupertino company’s share price behavior, following the September 14 announcement of the iPhone 13.\nAccording to Mr. Niles, AAPL tends to succumb to sell-the-news pressures around this time of the year. His observation is well founded. The chart below,provided by Stock Rover, shows that Apple stock has underperformed the S&P 500 the most in the last few months of the year, at least over the past decade.\nFigure 2: AAPL average monthly return vs. S&P (seasonality).\nStill on short term performance, the portfolio manager thinks that Apple stock is priced too aggressively ahead of what he believes will be tough COVID-19 comps. Apple delivered outstanding results during and right after the holiday period last year, as the chart below depicts. Topping such performance will be hard, if not nearly impossible.\nFigure 3: AAPL total revenue growth.\nOn this topic, experts seem to be split between a bullish majority and a bearish minority. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, would likely disagree with Dan Niles. According to the Wall Street analyst – and I tend to agree with him – the digital transformation and 5G upgrade cycle should last years, not only a few atypical pandemic months.\nS&P 500: pricey and facing headwinds\nWhile Dan Niles’ bearish arguments on AAPL shares could stand alone, his pessimism towards the broad market might be the one-two punch that knocks Apple stock down. Mr. Niles sees the S&P 500 correcting between 10% and 20% by the end of this year.\nAt the top of his list of reasons why this could happen is a deadly combo: inflation, COVID-19 worries and high valuations. I sympathize with his concerns, as all three have been key risk factors for the markets since at least the beginning of this year, if not longer.\nThe better news for bulls, in my view, is that none of the above is “new news” to investors. Equities have endured the headwinds very well through several months in 2021 so far, which I take as a positive sign that any potential worry may have already been priced in.\nThis is not to say, of course, that risks should be dismissed. Rather, I just don’t believe that the market or Apple stock investors will suddenly dump their positions based on old information – unless something drastic and unexpected, such as substantially higher inflation or interest rates, were to happen.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2469,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/884854234"}
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