peanutz
2021-09-16
Why the drop?
Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever<blockquote>英伟达：基本面比以往任何时候都不重要</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":885295612,"tweetId":"885295612","gmtCreate":1631795310036,"gmtModify":1631890421277,"author":{"id":4092751843658000,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorId":4092751843658000,"authorIdStr":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Why the drop?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Why the drop?</p></body></html>","text":"Why the drop?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885295612","repostId":1132437771,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132437771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631792549,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132437771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever<blockquote>英伟达：基本面比以往任何时候都不重要</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132437771","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Nvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.</li> <li>Investors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.</li> <li>Due to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d3f68e7d7037092fadd0ee8f1ab7d6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>wellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达是半导体领域无可争议的领导者，拥有最赚钱的商业模式之一。</li><li>投资者的注意力通常集中在公司强大的产品路线图上，但现在与股价表现的相关性较小。</li><li>由于其独特的定位，英伟达的股价现在对整个市场的力量比对公司的业务基本面更敏感。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>wellesenterprises/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a relatively small gaming company a couple of years ago, Nvidia (NVDA) has turned into one of the most important technological enterprises globally. From data centers & cloud computing, driverless cars and all kinds of artificial intelligence computing workloads, to gaming, visualization & cryptocurrency mining, Nvidia products are now the lifeblood of the new digital economy.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达(NVDA)从几年前一家相对较小的游戏公司，现已成为全球最重要的科技企业之一。从数据中心&云计算、无人驾驶汽车和各种人工智能计算工作负载，到游戏、可视化&加密货币挖掘，Nvidia产品现在是新数字经济的命脉。</blockquote></p><p> Not only is Nvidia's intellectual property uniquely positioned within the new digital age, but the company is also an undisputed leader in the graphics processing unit(GPU)space with a very wide moat. This led to the success story called Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达的知识产权不仅在新数字时代具有独特的地位，而且该公司还是图形处理单元(GPU)领域无可争议的领导者，拥有非常宽的护城河。这导致了英伟达的成功故事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc9ac68b953baa8a700911e6d0bae74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, however, share price returns are likely to disappoint even in the face of improving business fundamentals. It appears that certain market-wide risks are now in the driver's seat of Nvidia share price and could catch many of Nvidia shareholders off-guard. But before we dig into that, we need to properly account for the leading position business potential of the company.</p><p><blockquote>然而，展望未来，即使业务基本面有所改善，股价回报也可能令人失望。看来，某些全市场风险现在正在主导英伟达股价，可能会让许多英伟达股东措手不及。但在我们深入探讨这一点之前，我们需要适当考虑该公司的领先地位业务潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>All about GPUs demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于GPU需求的一切</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though the Gaming segment still takes a sizeable proportion of Nvidia's business, just over the course of four years Data Center has become equally important in size.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏部门仍然在英伟达的业务中占据相当大的比例，但在短短四年的时间里，数据中心的规模已经变得同样重要。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c28b9183a9848e6736b81b6d2a9c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达2021年年度投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As if the already ongoing trend towards more cloud-based workloads was not enough, the current pandemic significantly accelerated the overall demand.</p><p><blockquote>似乎已经在进行的更多基于云的工作负载的趋势还不够，当前的疫情显著加速了整体需求。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f8090d5c3afcbca0034dc19ebf87cd\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In addition to data centers, the automotive industry is also starving for Nvidia's chips which made the company deeply embedded in the automotive ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>除了数据中心之外，汽车行业也渴望英伟达的芯片，这使得该公司深深地融入了汽车生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA is working with several hundred partners in the automotive ecosystem including automakers, truck makers, tier one suppliers, sensor manufacturers, automotive research institutions, HD mapping companies, and startups to develop and deploy AI systems for self-driving vehicles. Source: Nvidia Annual Report 2021 <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e19c38b0c31479f3ca070abe62f088d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p><p><blockquote>英伟达正在与汽车生态系统中的数百家合作伙伴合作，包括汽车制造商、卡车制造商、一级供应商、传感器制造商、汽车研究机构、高清地图公司和初创公司，为自动驾驶汽车开发和部署人工智能系统。资料来源：英伟达2021年年报<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NVIDIA 2021年度投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Last but not least, the tug-of-war between gamers and cryptocurrency miners has resulted in both higher volume sales as well as higher pricing of Nvidia's GPUs. The uptick in energy consumption for cryptocurrency mining, coupled with the overall preference for Nvidia GPUs was yet another tailwind for the company's Gaming division.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，游戏玩家和加密货币矿工之间的拉锯战导致了英伟达GPU的销量增加和定价上涨。加密货币挖矿能耗的上升，加上对Nvidia GPU的整体偏好，是该公司游戏部门的另一个推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cde81f76201b5c7f5832202aaa17e08\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: bbc.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：bbc.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Implications for the Income Statement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对损益表的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> The perfect storm for GPUs demand and Nvidia's leading position in the segment resulted in the 53% topline growth in fiscal year 2021 and 31% so far for the FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>GPU需求的完美风暴和Nvidia在该领域的领先地位导致2021财年营收增长53%，2022财年迄今为止增长31%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ffb1f7cf418f4f8b264dd72a22fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, NVDA is likely to sustain this high topline growth rate, which is expected to somehow cool-off following fiscal year 2022.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，NVDA可能会维持这种高营收增长率，预计在2022财年之后会有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d980f7a5a4c4f88b24057841ca2db18b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"135\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The forward growth rate of NVDA is comparable only to that of its other GPU rival - AMD (AMD), which is expected to grow at a similar rate over the next two fiscal years.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA的远期增长率仅与其另一个GPU竞争对手AMD（AMD）相当，预计未来两个财年将以类似的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52527c42a41f66d31bcfaa80b46b1fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* compounded annual growth rate from the most recently completed fiscal year's revenue to analysts' consensus revenue estimates for two fiscal years forward Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*从最近完成的财年收入到分析师对未来两个财年的一致收入估计的复合年增长率资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据编制</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, while AMD's share price benefited massively from the strong GPU demand and its recent comeback to the CPU stage, Nvidia retained an industry-leading profitability.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管AMD的股价大幅受益于强劲的GPU需求及其最近重返CPU舞台，但英伟达仍保持了行业领先的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/925c87e1ab20aef8c57bacc0190ac528\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This allowed NVDA to spend significantly more than its rival AMD on Research & Development expenses.</p><p><blockquote>这使得NVDA在研发费用上的支出明显高于竞争对手AMD。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176479e69a17e33e4ff51eecb22a9d79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even adjusted for size, Nvidia has also been consistently outspending AMD on R&D investments.</p><p><blockquote>即使根据规模进行调整，英伟达在研发投资上的支出也一直超过AMD。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9947f932bee0cdc8168c3ba93b08cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While organic growth opportunities for Nvidia might seem endless at this point in time, the semiconductors industry remains highly cyclical and sooner or later even the GPU demand will cool off.</p><p><blockquote>虽然目前英伟达的有机增长机会似乎无穷无尽，但半导体行业仍然具有高度周期性，甚至GPU需求迟早会降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb65f1081a7a5a1b44babd5de7c1a63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from fred.stlouisfed.org and semi.org</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用fred.stlouisfed.org和semi.org的数据编写</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is why, even in the midst of the GPU shortages, Nvidia management is capitalizing on its extremely high valuation by tapping into the strategic acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么即使在GPU短缺的情况下，英伟达管理层仍通过战略收购ARM来利用其极高的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/811811f1ac57020a31ee1c4834476b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia to acquire ARM presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达将收购ARM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of <i>$21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stock</i>and $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing. <i>Source:nvidianews.nvidia.com</i> The ARM deal, which is still under review by the regulators, was also one of the largest Tech deals for 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据已获得英伟达、SBG和Arm董事会批准的交易条款，英伟达将向软银支付总计<i>价值215亿美元的英伟达普通股</i>以及120亿美元现金，其中包括签约时应付的20亿美元。<i>资料来源：nvidianews.nvidia.com</i>目前仍在接受监管机构审查的ARM交易也是2020年最大的科技交易之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb6ec9cdf0fffb8d9ce13f7818ea7500\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: cbinsights.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：cbinsights.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to high M&A activity being a sign of a peak in market valuations, analysts' sentiment on Nvidia is also exceptionally optimistic which suggests that the near-term growth is already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>除了高并购活动是市场估值见顶的迹象之外，分析师对英伟达的情绪也异常乐观，这表明近期增长已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a011c8086483c73b9bb116684f5402d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The value conundrum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价值难题</b></blockquote></p><p> As rosy as everything seems for NVDA right now, there should a price that is simply too high even when accounting for Nvidia's strong positioning. So far as growth accelerated so did the company's P/E ratio, which suggests an even more optimistic future scenario. However, neither Nvidia's bottom line nor its earnings multiple can go on an upward trajectory forever.</p><p><blockquote>尽管NVDA目前的一切看起来都很美好，但即使考虑到Nvidia的强大定位，价格也应该太高了。到目前为止，随着增长加速，该公司的市盈率也在加速，这表明未来的情况更加乐观。然而，英伟达的利润和市盈率都不可能永远处于上升轨道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee7cb10de1973f49703e0262aeca3b12\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After everything we said so far, we have some solid reasons to believe that the earnings per share (EPS) growth will be sustained for the time being, even in the face of the cyclical nature of the industry. But at such high valuations, the price premium attached to EPS growth is far more important for future returns. In other words, Nvidia's bottom line could fulfil even the rosiest forecasts but the share price could still disappoint, if the premium paid for high growth decreases.</p><p><blockquote>经过我们到目前为止所说的一切，我们有一些充分的理由相信，即使面对该行业的周期性，每股收益（EPS）的增长也将暂时持续。但在如此高的估值下，每股收益增长所附带的溢价对于未来回报更为重要。换句话说，英伟达的利润甚至可能达到最乐观的预测，但如果为高增长支付的溢价下降，股价仍可能令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> As we saw earlier, right now both NVDA and AMD are the two highest growth names in the semiconductors peer group and as such are rewarded by a proportionally higher earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前看到的，目前NVDA和AMD都是半导体同行中增长最快的两家公司，因此获得了相应较高的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/680a02fe38521c886f802828f1a86480\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to Nvidia's leading positioning and higher profitability, the company lies above the trend line on the graph above.</p><p><blockquote>由于英伟达的领先地位和较高的盈利能力，该公司位于上图的趋势线上方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Interestingly enough, if we exclude the high-flying GPU companies, the R-Squared between the rest of the peer group is just 0.12 which means that there isn't a strong relationship between future growth and valuations for everything other than GPUs in the semiconductors space.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，如果我们排除高速发展的GPU公司，其他同行之间的R平方仅为0.12，这意味着未来增长与半导体领域除GPU以外的所有产品的估值之间没有很强的关系空间。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the fact that NVDA and AMD chips are expected to have a more sustained growth beyond next year as GPUs remain crucial for data centers, autos, digital currencies and a number of other workloads related to artificial intelligence (AI).</p><p><blockquote>这是因为NVDA和AMD芯片预计将在明年之后实现更持续的增长，因为GPU对于数据中心、汽车、数字货币和许多其他与人工智能(AI)相关的工作负载仍然至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that NVDA and AMD are among the highest duration stocks in the sample and as such the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Meaning that all else being equal, NVDA and AMD shares will be hit much harder than those of their peers in an event of rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着NVDA和AMD是样本中久期最高的股票，因此对利率变化最敏感。这意味着在其他条件相同的情况下，如果利率上升，NVDA和AMD的股价将比同行遭受更严重的打击。</blockquote></p><p> That is why, NVDA Price-to-Sales ratio trails the performance of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is influenced by long-term bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么NVDA市销率落后于受长期债券收益率影响的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a706f8ec1fe650806ddbf2b3730c659\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the graph above, the TLT does a very good job at explaining movements in Nvidia's P/S ratio, with the exception of the last quarter of calendar year 2018, when crypto-related demand had a profound impact on the company's topline results.</p><p><blockquote>在上图中，TLT很好地解释了Nvidia市盈率的变动，但2018年最后一个季度除外，当时与加密货币相关的需求对公司的营收产生了深远的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First, <i>post crypto inventory of GPUs</i>in the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventory to normalize in Q1 in line with one to two quarter timeline we had outlined on our previous earnings call. Second, <i>deteriorating macro economic conditions,</i>impacted consumer demand for our GPUs; and third, sales of certain high end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070 were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture. Source: Nvidia Q4 of FY 2019 earnings transcript This also highlights the sensitivity of Nvidia share price to macroeconomic conditions in cryptocurrency-related demand as the share price halved from around $70 in September 2018 (4-to-1 split adjusted) to around $35 in January of the following year.</p><p><blockquote>三个因素导致第四季度游戏收入下降。首先，<i>GPU加密后清单</i>在渠道中导致我们减少出货量，以便让多余的渠道库存通过销售。我们预计渠道库存将在第一季度正常化，符合我们在之前的收益看涨期权中概述的一到两个季度的时间表。第二，<i>宏观经济状况恶化，</i>影响消费者对我们GPU的需求；第三，使用我们新图灵架构的某些高端GPU（包括GeForce RTX 2080和2070）的销量低于我们对新架构推出的预期。资料来源：Nvidia 2019财年第四季度收益记录这也凸显了Nvidia股价对加密货币相关需求的宏观经济状况的敏感性，因为股价从2018年9月的70美元左右（4比1分割调整后）减半至35美元左右次年1月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The elephant in the room</b></p><p><blockquote><b>房间里的大象</b></blockquote></p><p> The unprecedented amount of liquidity within the equity markets has been a blessing for high growth momentum stocks, which was one of the best performing areas of the market over the last decade. That is why it is worth noticing that lower interest rates have profound implications for returns of momentum stocks (see the graph below).</p><p><blockquote>股票市场前所未有的流动性对高增长动力股票来说是一个福音，这是过去十年市场表现最好的领域之一。这就是为什么值得注意的是，较低的利率对动量股的回报有着深远的影响（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> In the graph below I measure momentum by taking a long position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).</p><p><blockquote>在下图中，我通过持有iShares Edge MSCI USA动量因子ETF(MTUM)的多头头寸和iShares Edge MSCI USA价值因子ETF(VLUE)的空头头寸来衡量动量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2664fc3740387f87d6aa32f635ed3dd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance and fred.stlouisfed.org</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融和fred.stlouisfed.org</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After everything we said so far, it should come as no surprise that momentum stocks were one of the best performing areas of the market during 2020, when nominal yields on the 10-year government bonds fell below 1%. During this period, Nvidia share price more than doubled from around $60 (post-split) in January to $130 in December of the same year. And although the company does not make it into the largest holdings of MTUM, its share price was heavily influenced by the performance of the momentum factor.</p><p><blockquote>经过我们到目前为止所说的一切，动量股成为2020年市场表现最好的领域之一也就不足为奇了，当时10年期政府债券的名义收益率跌至1%以下。在此期间，英伟达股价从1月份的60美元左右（拆分后）上涨了一倍多，达到同年12月的130美元。尽管该公司并未成为MTUM的最大持股公司，但其股价受到动量因素表现的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb70e63d6055785d63a4d52fd5f41b73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: ishares.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ishares.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia's relationship with momentum factor (MTUM less VLUE) has become an even stronger over the recent months as its share price reached new all-time highs, with the rolling 1-year R-Squared of daily returns hovering above 0.35.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，Nvidia与动量因子（MTUM减去VLUE）的关系变得更加牢固，其股价创下历史新高，滚动1年日回报率R平方徘徊在0.35以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30576794833fa9f35403aac0c68767b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since this might look as a coincidence, the relationship between NVDA and the momentum factor, as constructed by Fama & French, also followed a similar pattern to the one used above.</p><p><blockquote>由于这可能看起来是一个巧合，Fama&French构建的NVDA和动量因子之间的关系也遵循了与上面使用的类似的模式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae61fb668ca8d5dcca59f74af5a02af7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* up until 30th of June 2021 due to lack of more recent data Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance & Fama & French</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*截至2021年6月30日，由于缺乏最新数据来源：由作者使用雅虎！金融&Fama&法语</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nvidia's exposure to the momentum factor is also much stronger than those of other high-flying growth names, such as AMD, Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达对动量因素的敞口也比AMD、特斯拉（TSLA）和蔚来（蔚来）等其他高速增长的公司强得多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5dac0e96644db66820dce414e647ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia was one of the growth stocks that benefited the most from the recent drop in interest rates and as such is at the highest risk of a sharp reversal, should bond yields normalize. Adding the risk of lower demand from cryptocurrency mining, and the prospects of Nvidia share price continuing to outperform look slim. That is why, investors should not be surprised, if going forward Nvidia share price disappoints even as management continues to deliver on its strategy.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达是从近期利率下降中受益最多的成长型股票之一，因此，如果债券收益率正常化，英伟达面临大幅逆转的风险最高。再加上加密货币挖矿需求下降的风险，英伟达股价继续跑赢大盘的前景看起来很渺茫。这就是为什么，如果英伟达的股价未来令人失望，即使管理层继续实施其战略，投资者也不应该感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, there is always the possibility that the Federal Reserve will be unable to taper and bring bond yields to a more normalized level, which in itself will be enough to propel Nvidia's share price to new all-time highs. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain event that is also unrelated to Nvidia's business performance. Moreover, the outcome of this event will likely have a disproportionately higher influence on Nvidia's future share price performance than the company's products will.</p><p><blockquote>当然，美联储总是有可能无法缩减规模并将债券收益率带到更正常的水平，这本身就足以推动英伟达的股价创下历史新高。尽管如此，这是一个高度不确定的事件，也与英伟达的业务表现无关。此外，这一事件的结果对英伟达未来股价表现的影响可能会比该公司产品的影响更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever<blockquote>英伟达：基本面比以往任何时候都不重要</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever<blockquote>英伟达：基本面比以往任何时候都不重要</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-16 19:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Nvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.</li> <li>Investors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.</li> <li>Due to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d3f68e7d7037092fadd0ee8f1ab7d6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>wellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达是半导体领域无可争议的领导者，拥有最赚钱的商业模式之一。</li><li>投资者的注意力通常集中在公司强大的产品路线图上，但现在与股价表现的相关性较小。</li><li>由于其独特的定位，英伟达的股价现在对整个市场的力量比对公司的业务基本面更敏感。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>wellesenterprises/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a relatively small gaming company a couple of years ago, Nvidia (NVDA) has turned into one of the most important technological enterprises globally. From data centers & cloud computing, driverless cars and all kinds of artificial intelligence computing workloads, to gaming, visualization & cryptocurrency mining, Nvidia products are now the lifeblood of the new digital economy.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达(NVDA)从几年前一家相对较小的游戏公司，现已成为全球最重要的科技企业之一。从数据中心&云计算、无人驾驶汽车和各种人工智能计算工作负载，到游戏、可视化&加密货币挖掘，Nvidia产品现在是新数字经济的命脉。</blockquote></p><p> Not only is Nvidia's intellectual property uniquely positioned within the new digital age, but the company is also an undisputed leader in the graphics processing unit(GPU)space with a very wide moat. This led to the success story called Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达的知识产权不仅在新数字时代具有独特的地位，而且该公司还是图形处理单元(GPU)领域无可争议的领导者，拥有非常宽的护城河。这导致了英伟达的成功故事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc9ac68b953baa8a700911e6d0bae74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, however, share price returns are likely to disappoint even in the face of improving business fundamentals. It appears that certain market-wide risks are now in the driver's seat of Nvidia share price and could catch many of Nvidia shareholders off-guard. But before we dig into that, we need to properly account for the leading position business potential of the company.</p><p><blockquote>然而，展望未来，即使业务基本面有所改善，股价回报也可能令人失望。看来，某些全市场风险现在正在主导英伟达股价，可能会让许多英伟达股东措手不及。但在我们深入探讨这一点之前，我们需要适当考虑该公司的领先地位业务潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>All about GPUs demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于GPU需求的一切</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though the Gaming segment still takes a sizeable proportion of Nvidia's business, just over the course of four years Data Center has become equally important in size.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏部门仍然在英伟达的业务中占据相当大的比例，但在短短四年的时间里，数据中心的规模已经变得同样重要。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c28b9183a9848e6736b81b6d2a9c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达2021年年度投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As if the already ongoing trend towards more cloud-based workloads was not enough, the current pandemic significantly accelerated the overall demand.</p><p><blockquote>似乎已经在进行的更多基于云的工作负载的趋势还不够，当前的疫情显著加速了整体需求。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f8090d5c3afcbca0034dc19ebf87cd\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In addition to data centers, the automotive industry is also starving for Nvidia's chips which made the company deeply embedded in the automotive ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>除了数据中心之外，汽车行业也渴望英伟达的芯片，这使得该公司深深地融入了汽车生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA is working with several hundred partners in the automotive ecosystem including automakers, truck makers, tier one suppliers, sensor manufacturers, automotive research institutions, HD mapping companies, and startups to develop and deploy AI systems for self-driving vehicles. Source: Nvidia Annual Report 2021 <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e19c38b0c31479f3ca070abe62f088d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p><p><blockquote>英伟达正在与汽车生态系统中的数百家合作伙伴合作，包括汽车制造商、卡车制造商、一级供应商、传感器制造商、汽车研究机构、高清地图公司和初创公司，为自动驾驶汽车开发和部署人工智能系统。资料来源：英伟达2021年年报<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NVIDIA 2021年度投资者日</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Last but not least, the tug-of-war between gamers and cryptocurrency miners has resulted in both higher volume sales as well as higher pricing of Nvidia's GPUs. The uptick in energy consumption for cryptocurrency mining, coupled with the overall preference for Nvidia GPUs was yet another tailwind for the company's Gaming division.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，游戏玩家和加密货币矿工之间的拉锯战导致了英伟达GPU的销量增加和定价上涨。加密货币挖矿能耗的上升，加上对Nvidia GPU的整体偏好，是该公司游戏部门的另一个推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cde81f76201b5c7f5832202aaa17e08\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: bbc.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：bbc.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Implications for the Income Statement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对损益表的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> The perfect storm for GPUs demand and Nvidia's leading position in the segment resulted in the 53% topline growth in fiscal year 2021 and 31% so far for the FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>GPU需求的完美风暴和Nvidia在该领域的领先地位导致2021财年营收增长53%，2022财年迄今为止增长31%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ffb1f7cf418f4f8b264dd72a22fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, NVDA is likely to sustain this high topline growth rate, which is expected to somehow cool-off following fiscal year 2022.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，NVDA可能会维持这种高营收增长率，预计在2022财年之后会有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d980f7a5a4c4f88b24057841ca2db18b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"135\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The forward growth rate of NVDA is comparable only to that of its other GPU rival - AMD (AMD), which is expected to grow at a similar rate over the next two fiscal years.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA的远期增长率仅与其另一个GPU竞争对手AMD（AMD）相当，预计未来两个财年将以类似的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52527c42a41f66d31bcfaa80b46b1fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* compounded annual growth rate from the most recently completed fiscal year's revenue to analysts' consensus revenue estimates for two fiscal years forward Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*从最近完成的财年收入到分析师对未来两个财年的一致收入估计的复合年增长率资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据编制</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, while AMD's share price benefited massively from the strong GPU demand and its recent comeback to the CPU stage, Nvidia retained an industry-leading profitability.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管AMD的股价大幅受益于强劲的GPU需求及其最近重返CPU舞台，但英伟达仍保持了行业领先的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/925c87e1ab20aef8c57bacc0190ac528\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This allowed NVDA to spend significantly more than its rival AMD on Research & Development expenses.</p><p><blockquote>这使得NVDA在研发费用上的支出明显高于竞争对手AMD。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176479e69a17e33e4ff51eecb22a9d79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even adjusted for size, Nvidia has also been consistently outspending AMD on R&D investments.</p><p><blockquote>即使根据规模进行调整，英伟达在研发投资上的支出也一直超过AMD。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9947f932bee0cdc8168c3ba93b08cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While organic growth opportunities for Nvidia might seem endless at this point in time, the semiconductors industry remains highly cyclical and sooner or later even the GPU demand will cool off.</p><p><blockquote>虽然目前英伟达的有机增长机会似乎无穷无尽，但半导体行业仍然具有高度周期性，甚至GPU需求迟早会降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb65f1081a7a5a1b44babd5de7c1a63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from fred.stlouisfed.org and semi.org</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用fred.stlouisfed.org和semi.org的数据编写</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is why, even in the midst of the GPU shortages, Nvidia management is capitalizing on its extremely high valuation by tapping into the strategic acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么即使在GPU短缺的情况下，英伟达管理层仍通过战略收购ARM来利用其极高的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/811811f1ac57020a31ee1c4834476b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia to acquire ARM presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达将收购ARM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of <i>$21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stock</i>and $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing. <i>Source:nvidianews.nvidia.com</i> The ARM deal, which is still under review by the regulators, was also one of the largest Tech deals for 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据已获得英伟达、SBG和Arm董事会批准的交易条款，英伟达将向软银支付总计<i>价值215亿美元的英伟达普通股</i>以及120亿美元现金，其中包括签约时应付的20亿美元。<i>资料来源：nvidianews.nvidia.com</i>目前仍在接受监管机构审查的ARM交易也是2020年最大的科技交易之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb6ec9cdf0fffb8d9ce13f7818ea7500\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: cbinsights.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：cbinsights.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to high M&A activity being a sign of a peak in market valuations, analysts' sentiment on Nvidia is also exceptionally optimistic which suggests that the near-term growth is already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>除了高并购活动是市场估值见顶的迹象之外，分析师对英伟达的情绪也异常乐观，这表明近期增长已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a011c8086483c73b9bb116684f5402d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The value conundrum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价值难题</b></blockquote></p><p> As rosy as everything seems for NVDA right now, there should a price that is simply too high even when accounting for Nvidia's strong positioning. So far as growth accelerated so did the company's P/E ratio, which suggests an even more optimistic future scenario. However, neither Nvidia's bottom line nor its earnings multiple can go on an upward trajectory forever.</p><p><blockquote>尽管NVDA目前的一切看起来都很美好，但即使考虑到Nvidia的强大定位，价格也应该太高了。到目前为止，随着增长加速，该公司的市盈率也在加速，这表明未来的情况更加乐观。然而，英伟达的利润和市盈率都不可能永远处于上升轨道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee7cb10de1973f49703e0262aeca3b12\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After everything we said so far, we have some solid reasons to believe that the earnings per share (EPS) growth will be sustained for the time being, even in the face of the cyclical nature of the industry. But at such high valuations, the price premium attached to EPS growth is far more important for future returns. In other words, Nvidia's bottom line could fulfil even the rosiest forecasts but the share price could still disappoint, if the premium paid for high growth decreases.</p><p><blockquote>经过我们到目前为止所说的一切，我们有一些充分的理由相信，即使面对该行业的周期性，每股收益（EPS）的增长也将暂时持续。但在如此高的估值下，每股收益增长所附带的溢价对于未来回报更为重要。换句话说，英伟达的利润甚至可能达到最乐观的预测，但如果为高增长支付的溢价下降，股价仍可能令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> As we saw earlier, right now both NVDA and AMD are the two highest growth names in the semiconductors peer group and as such are rewarded by a proportionally higher earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前看到的，目前NVDA和AMD都是半导体同行中增长最快的两家公司，因此获得了相应较高的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/680a02fe38521c886f802828f1a86480\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用Seeking Alpha的数据准备</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to Nvidia's leading positioning and higher profitability, the company lies above the trend line on the graph above.</p><p><blockquote>由于英伟达的领先地位和较高的盈利能力，该公司位于上图的趋势线上方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Interestingly enough, if we exclude the high-flying GPU companies, the R-Squared between the rest of the peer group is just 0.12 which means that there isn't a strong relationship between future growth and valuations for everything other than GPUs in the semiconductors space.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，如果我们排除高速发展的GPU公司，其他同行之间的R平方仅为0.12，这意味着未来增长与半导体领域除GPU以外的所有产品的估值之间没有很强的关系空间。</blockquote></p><p> This is due to the fact that NVDA and AMD chips are expected to have a more sustained growth beyond next year as GPUs remain crucial for data centers, autos, digital currencies and a number of other workloads related to artificial intelligence (AI).</p><p><blockquote>这是因为NVDA和AMD芯片预计将在明年之后实现更持续的增长，因为GPU对于数据中心、汽车、数字货币和许多其他与人工智能(AI)相关的工作负载仍然至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that NVDA and AMD are among the highest duration stocks in the sample and as such the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Meaning that all else being equal, NVDA and AMD shares will be hit much harder than those of their peers in an event of rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着NVDA和AMD是样本中久期最高的股票，因此对利率变化最敏感。这意味着在其他条件相同的情况下，如果利率上升，NVDA和AMD的股价将比同行遭受更严重的打击。</blockquote></p><p> That is why, NVDA Price-to-Sales ratio trails the performance of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is influenced by long-term bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么NVDA市销率落后于受长期债券收益率影响的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a706f8ec1fe650806ddbf2b3730c659\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the graph above, the TLT does a very good job at explaining movements in Nvidia's P/S ratio, with the exception of the last quarter of calendar year 2018, when crypto-related demand had a profound impact on the company's topline results.</p><p><blockquote>在上图中，TLT很好地解释了Nvidia市盈率的变动，但2018年最后一个季度除外，当时与加密货币相关的需求对公司的营收产生了深远的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First, <i>post crypto inventory of GPUs</i>in the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventory to normalize in Q1 in line with one to two quarter timeline we had outlined on our previous earnings call. Second, <i>deteriorating macro economic conditions,</i>impacted consumer demand for our GPUs; and third, sales of certain high end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070 were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture. Source: Nvidia Q4 of FY 2019 earnings transcript This also highlights the sensitivity of Nvidia share price to macroeconomic conditions in cryptocurrency-related demand as the share price halved from around $70 in September 2018 (4-to-1 split adjusted) to around $35 in January of the following year.</p><p><blockquote>三个因素导致第四季度游戏收入下降。首先，<i>GPU加密后清单</i>在渠道中导致我们减少出货量，以便让多余的渠道库存通过销售。我们预计渠道库存将在第一季度正常化，符合我们在之前的收益看涨期权中概述的一到两个季度的时间表。第二，<i>宏观经济状况恶化，</i>影响消费者对我们GPU的需求；第三，使用我们新图灵架构的某些高端GPU（包括GeForce RTX 2080和2070）的销量低于我们对新架构推出的预期。资料来源：Nvidia 2019财年第四季度收益记录这也凸显了Nvidia股价对加密货币相关需求的宏观经济状况的敏感性，因为股价从2018年9月的70美元左右（4比1分割调整后）减半至35美元左右次年1月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The elephant in the room</b></p><p><blockquote><b>房间里的大象</b></blockquote></p><p> The unprecedented amount of liquidity within the equity markets has been a blessing for high growth momentum stocks, which was one of the best performing areas of the market over the last decade. That is why it is worth noticing that lower interest rates have profound implications for returns of momentum stocks (see the graph below).</p><p><blockquote>股票市场前所未有的流动性对高增长动力股票来说是一个福音，这是过去十年市场表现最好的领域之一。这就是为什么值得注意的是，较低的利率对动量股的回报有着深远的影响（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> In the graph below I measure momentum by taking a long position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).</p><p><blockquote>在下图中，我通过持有iShares Edge MSCI USA动量因子ETF(MTUM)的多头头寸和iShares Edge MSCI USA价值因子ETF(VLUE)的空头头寸来衡量动量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2664fc3740387f87d6aa32f635ed3dd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance and fred.stlouisfed.org</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融和fred.stlouisfed.org</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After everything we said so far, it should come as no surprise that momentum stocks were one of the best performing areas of the market during 2020, when nominal yields on the 10-year government bonds fell below 1%. During this period, Nvidia share price more than doubled from around $60 (post-split) in January to $130 in December of the same year. And although the company does not make it into the largest holdings of MTUM, its share price was heavily influenced by the performance of the momentum factor.</p><p><blockquote>经过我们到目前为止所说的一切，动量股成为2020年市场表现最好的领域之一也就不足为奇了，当时10年期政府债券的名义收益率跌至1%以下。在此期间，英伟达股价从1月份的60美元左右（拆分后）上涨了一倍多，达到同年12月的130美元。尽管该公司并未成为MTUM的最大持股公司，但其股价受到动量因素表现的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb70e63d6055785d63a4d52fd5f41b73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: ishares.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ishares.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia's relationship with momentum factor (MTUM less VLUE) has become an even stronger over the recent months as its share price reached new all-time highs, with the rolling 1-year R-Squared of daily returns hovering above 0.35.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，Nvidia与动量因子（MTUM减去VLUE）的关系变得更加牢固，其股价创下历史新高，滚动1年日回报率R平方徘徊在0.35以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30576794833fa9f35403aac0c68767b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since this might look as a coincidence, the relationship between NVDA and the momentum factor, as constructed by Fama & French, also followed a similar pattern to the one used above.</p><p><blockquote>由于这可能看起来是一个巧合，Fama&French构建的NVDA和动量因子之间的关系也遵循了与上面使用的类似的模式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae61fb668ca8d5dcca59f74af5a02af7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* up until 30th of June 2021 due to lack of more recent data Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance & Fama & French</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*截至2021年6月30日，由于缺乏最新数据来源：由作者使用雅虎！金融&Fama&法语</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nvidia's exposure to the momentum factor is also much stronger than those of other high-flying growth names, such as AMD, Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达对动量因素的敞口也比AMD、特斯拉（TSLA）和蔚来（蔚来）等其他高速增长的公司强得多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5dac0e96644db66820dce414e647ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用雅虎的数据准备。金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia was one of the growth stocks that benefited the most from the recent drop in interest rates and as such is at the highest risk of a sharp reversal, should bond yields normalize. Adding the risk of lower demand from cryptocurrency mining, and the prospects of Nvidia share price continuing to outperform look slim. That is why, investors should not be surprised, if going forward Nvidia share price disappoints even as management continues to deliver on its strategy.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达是从近期利率下降中受益最多的成长型股票之一，因此，如果债券收益率正常化，英伟达面临大幅逆转的风险最高。再加上加密货币挖矿需求下降的风险，英伟达股价继续跑赢大盘的前景看起来很渺茫。这就是为什么，如果英伟达的股价未来令人失望，即使管理层继续实施其战略，投资者也不应该感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, there is always the possibility that the Federal Reserve will be unable to taper and bring bond yields to a more normalized level, which in itself will be enough to propel Nvidia's share price to new all-time highs. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain event that is also unrelated to Nvidia's business performance. Moreover, the outcome of this event will likely have a disproportionately higher influence on Nvidia's future share price performance than the company's products will.</p><p><blockquote>当然，美联储总是有可能无法缩减规模并将债券收益率带到更正常的水平，这本身就足以推动英伟达的股价创下历史新高。尽管如此，这是一个高度不确定的事件，也与英伟达的业务表现无关。此外，这一事件的结果对英伟达未来股价表现的影响可能会比该公司产品的影响更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455441-nvidia-fundamentals-matter-less-than-ever\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455441-nvidia-fundamentals-matter-less-than-ever","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132437771","content_text":"Summary\n\nNvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.\nInvestors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.\nDue to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.\n\nwellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nFrom a relatively small gaming company a couple of years ago, Nvidia (NVDA) has turned into one of the most important technological enterprises globally. From data centers & cloud computing, driverless cars and all kinds of artificial intelligence computing workloads, to gaming, visualization & cryptocurrency mining, Nvidia products are now the lifeblood of the new digital economy.\nNot only is Nvidia's intellectual property uniquely positioned within the new digital age, but the company is also an undisputed leader in the graphics processing unit(GPU)space with a very wide moat. This led to the success story called Nvidia.\nData by YCharts\nGoing forward, however, share price returns are likely to disappoint even in the face of improving business fundamentals. It appears that certain market-wide risks are now in the driver's seat of Nvidia share price and could catch many of Nvidia shareholders off-guard. But before we dig into that, we need to properly account for the leading position business potential of the company.\nAll about GPUs demand\nEven though the Gaming segment still takes a sizeable proportion of Nvidia's business, just over the course of four years Data Center has become equally important in size.\nSource: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021\nAs if the already ongoing trend towards more cloud-based workloads was not enough, the current pandemic significantly accelerated the overall demand.\n\nIn addition to data centers, the automotive industry is also starving for Nvidia's chips which made the company deeply embedded in the automotive ecosystem.\n\n NVIDIA is working with several hundred partners in the automotive ecosystem including automakers, truck makers, tier one suppliers, sensor manufacturers, automotive research institutions, HD mapping companies, and startups to develop and deploy AI systems for self-driving vehicles.\n\n\n Source: Nvidia Annual Report 2021\n\nSource: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021\nLast but not least, the tug-of-war between gamers and cryptocurrency miners has resulted in both higher volume sales as well as higher pricing of Nvidia's GPUs. The uptick in energy consumption for cryptocurrency mining, coupled with the overall preference for Nvidia GPUs was yet another tailwind for the company's Gaming division.\nSource: bbc.com\nImplications for the Income Statement\nThe perfect storm for GPUs demand and Nvidia's leading position in the segment resulted in the 53% topline growth in fiscal year 2021 and 31% so far for the FY 2022.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nGoing forward, NVDA is likely to sustain this high topline growth rate, which is expected to somehow cool-off following fiscal year 2022.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThe forward growth rate of NVDA is comparable only to that of its other GPU rival - AMD (AMD), which is expected to grow at a similar rate over the next two fiscal years.\n* compounded annual growth rate from the most recently completed fiscal year's revenue to analysts' consensus revenue estimates for two fiscal years forward Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nHowever, while AMD's share price benefited massively from the strong GPU demand and its recent comeback to the CPU stage, Nvidia retained an industry-leading profitability.\nData by YCharts\nThis allowed NVDA to spend significantly more than its rival AMD on Research & Development expenses.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nEven adjusted for size, Nvidia has also been consistently outspending AMD on R&D investments.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nWhile organic growth opportunities for Nvidia might seem endless at this point in time, the semiconductors industry remains highly cyclical and sooner or later even the GPU demand will cool off.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from fred.stlouisfed.org and semi.org\nThat is why, even in the midst of the GPU shortages, Nvidia management is capitalizing on its extremely high valuation by tapping into the strategic acquisition of ARM.\nSource: Nvidia to acquire ARM presentation\n\n Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of \n $21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stockand $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing.\n\n\nSource:nvidianews.nvidia.com\n\nThe ARM deal, which is still under review by the regulators, was also one of the largest Tech deals for 2020.\nSource: cbinsights.com\nIn addition to high M&A activity being a sign of a peak in market valuations, analysts' sentiment on Nvidia is also exceptionally optimistic which suggests that the near-term growth is already priced in.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThe value conundrum\nAs rosy as everything seems for NVDA right now, there should a price that is simply too high even when accounting for Nvidia's strong positioning. So far as growth accelerated so did the company's P/E ratio, which suggests an even more optimistic future scenario. However, neither Nvidia's bottom line nor its earnings multiple can go on an upward trajectory forever.\nData by YCharts\nAfter everything we said so far, we have some solid reasons to believe that the earnings per share (EPS) growth will be sustained for the time being, even in the face of the cyclical nature of the industry. But at such high valuations, the price premium attached to EPS growth is far more important for future returns. In other words, Nvidia's bottom line could fulfil even the rosiest forecasts but the share price could still disappoint, if the premium paid for high growth decreases.\nAs we saw earlier, right now both NVDA and AMD are the two highest growth names in the semiconductors peer group and as such are rewarded by a proportionally higher earnings multiple.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nDue to Nvidia's leading positioning and higher profitability, the company lies above the trend line on the graph above.\nInterestingly enough, if we exclude the high-flying GPU companies, the R-Squared between the rest of the peer group is just 0.12 which means that there isn't a strong relationship between future growth and valuations for everything other than GPUs in the semiconductors space.\nThis is due to the fact that NVDA and AMD chips are expected to have a more sustained growth beyond next year as GPUs remain crucial for data centers, autos, digital currencies and a number of other workloads related to artificial intelligence (AI).\nThis also means that NVDA and AMD are among the highest duration stocks in the sample and as such the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Meaning that all else being equal, NVDA and AMD shares will be hit much harder than those of their peers in an event of rising interest rates.\nThat is why, NVDA Price-to-Sales ratio trails the performance of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is influenced by long-term bond yields.\nData by YCharts\nIn the graph above, the TLT does a very good job at explaining movements in Nvidia's P/S ratio, with the exception of the last quarter of calendar year 2018, when crypto-related demand had a profound impact on the company's topline results.\n\n Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First, \n post crypto inventory of GPUsin the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventory to normalize in Q1 in line with one to two quarter timeline we had outlined on our previous earnings call.\n\n\n Second, \n deteriorating macro economic conditions,impacted consumer demand for our GPUs; and third, sales of certain high end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070 were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture.\n\n\n Source: Nvidia Q4 of FY 2019 earnings transcript\n\nThis also highlights the sensitivity of Nvidia share price to macroeconomic conditions in cryptocurrency-related demand as the share price halved from around $70 in September 2018 (4-to-1 split adjusted) to around $35 in January of the following year.\nThe elephant in the room\nThe unprecedented amount of liquidity within the equity markets has been a blessing for high growth momentum stocks, which was one of the best performing areas of the market over the last decade. That is why it is worth noticing that lower interest rates have profound implications for returns of momentum stocks (see the graph below).\nIn the graph below I measure momentum by taking a long position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance and fred.stlouisfed.org\nAfter everything we said so far, it should come as no surprise that momentum stocks were one of the best performing areas of the market during 2020, when nominal yields on the 10-year government bonds fell below 1%. During this period, Nvidia share price more than doubled from around $60 (post-split) in January to $130 in December of the same year. And although the company does not make it into the largest holdings of MTUM, its share price was heavily influenced by the performance of the momentum factor.\nSource: ishares.com\nNvidia's relationship with momentum factor (MTUM less VLUE) has become an even stronger over the recent months as its share price reached new all-time highs, with the rolling 1-year R-Squared of daily returns hovering above 0.35.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance\nSince this might look as a coincidence, the relationship between NVDA and the momentum factor, as constructed by Fama & French, also followed a similar pattern to the one used above.\n* up until 30th of June 2021 due to lack of more recent data Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance & Fama & French\nNvidia's exposure to the momentum factor is also much stronger than those of other high-flying growth names, such as AMD, Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO).\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance\nNvidia was one of the growth stocks that benefited the most from the recent drop in interest rates and as such is at the highest risk of a sharp reversal, should bond yields normalize. Adding the risk of lower demand from cryptocurrency mining, and the prospects of Nvidia share price continuing to outperform look slim. That is why, investors should not be surprised, if going forward Nvidia share price disappoints even as management continues to deliver on its strategy.\nOf course, there is always the possibility that the Federal Reserve will be unable to taper and bring bond yields to a more normalized level, which in itself will be enough to propel Nvidia's share price to new all-time highs. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain event that is also unrelated to Nvidia's business performance. Moreover, the outcome of this event will likely have a disproportionately higher influence on Nvidia's future share price performance than the company's products will.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/885295612"}
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