bzlim
2021-08-06
Still gonna buy more when it drops.
This Expert Sees Apple Stock Falling 10%<blockquote>这位专家认为苹果股价下跌 10%</blockquote>
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One analyst believes that t","content":"<p>Apple shares remain stuck in the mud following strong fiscal Q3 results. One analyst believes that things will get even worse for the stock before they get better.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的第三财季业绩后，苹果股价仍陷入困境。一位分析师认为，在好转之前，该股的情况会变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> Applereported very solid fiscal Q3 numberson July 27, zipping past Wall Street’s most optimistic estimates once again. But as Apple stock failed to get traction after earnings season, not all analysts seem convinced that robust past performance will translate into higher share price.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司在 7 月 27 日公布了非常稳健的第三财季数据，再次超出了华尔街最乐观的预期。但由于苹果股票在财报季后未能获得牵引力，并非所有分析师似乎都相信过去强劲的业绩将转化为更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Take Bernstein Toni Sacconaghi, for instance. The Apple skeptic, who has a hold rating on the stock and price target of $132 apiece,believes that AAPL has 10% downside from current levels. The Apple Maven explores the reasons why shares might dip this much.</p><p><blockquote>以伯恩斯坦·托尼·萨科纳吉为例。这位苹果怀疑论者对该股给予持有评级，目标价为每股 132 美元，他认为 AAPL 较当前水平有 10% 的下行空间。这位苹果专家探讨了股价可能大幅下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78920b004c2e6135cfe065c8940151d\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple logo sign from an Apple store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果一家商店的苹果标志标志。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The case for a 10% loss</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10%损失的情况</b></blockquote></p><p> Toni begins his argument by recognizing that the bar had been set too high ahead of earnings season. This is reasonable, as Apple appreciated about 20% in the two months leading to its earnings day. Other Big Tech companies experienced similar “sell the news” pressure after reporting robust financial results –think of Microsoft(MSFT), for example.</p><p><blockquote>托尼在开始他的论点时承认，在财报季之前，门槛设定得太高了。这是合理的，因为苹果在财报发布前的两个月内升值了约 20%。其他大型科技公司在公布强劲的财务业绩后也面临着类似的 “抛售新闻 ”压力，比如微软（MSFT）。</blockquote></p><p> But the analyst’s concerns do not end here. According to him, there is a belief on the Street that things cannot get much better for the Cupertino company. Apple will start facing very tough comps starting now (see chart below) while dealing with supply chain challenges, and growth deceleration is all but a certainty at this point.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师的担忧并没有就此结束。据他说，街上有一种观点认为，库比蒂诺公司的情况不会好转了。从现在开始，苹果将开始面临非常艰难的竞争（见下图），同时应对供应链挑战，目前增长放缓几乎是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst thinks that revenue should be lighter than expected going forward and the iPhone, weaker through the next year. Apple is certainly more about services today than it used to be, but the iPhone remains a crucial component of the ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师认为，未来的收入应该低于预期，iPhone 明年的收入也会疲软。如今的苹果肯定比过去更注重服务，但iPhone仍然是生态系统的重要组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6090b256d9235de5597bfd07f68fa7\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's total revenue growth.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果总收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Sacconaghi also thinks that valuations have stretched too thin. Historically, AAPL has been valued at a discount to the market. Today, the stock trades eight turns higher on a trailing twelve-month P/E basis, at 29 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉先生还认为，估值过于薄弱。从历史上看，AAPL 的估值一直低于市场。如今，该股在过去 12 个月的市盈率基础上上涨了 8 倍，市盈率为 29 倍。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, Bernstein’s analyst believes that Apple deserves to be valued higher than the S&P 500 now, given the growth in the higher-margin and recurring revenue service businesses. But he questions how much is too much. The analyst thinks that a fair earnings multiple would be around 25 times.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，伯恩斯坦的分析师认为，鉴于利润率较高和经常性收入服务业务的增长，苹果现在的估值应该高于标普500。但他质疑多少才算太多。分析师认为，合理的市盈率约为 25 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> In my view, Bernstein’s analyst raises a few important points. Apple stock rallied ahead of earnings, which may explain a period of share price consolidation, even after strong earnings. It is also undeniable that comps will be very hard to beat immediately before, during and just after the 2021 holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，伯恩斯坦的分析师提出了几个重要观点。苹果股价在财报公布前上涨，这可能解释了一段时间的股价盘整，即使在财报强劲之后也是如此。同样不可否认的是，在2021年假期之前、期间和之后，comps将很难被击败。</blockquote></p><p> But I am not too concerned about the other points that Toni has raised. On valuation,I side with Wedbush’s Dan Ives in thinking that relying on P/E alone can be tricky. Apple stock has probably been re-rated for higher growth (5G cycle, wearables, mixed reality, Apple Car) and heavier service mix leading to stickier revenues and better margins.</p><p><blockquote>但我不太关心托尼提出的其他观点。在估值方面，我同意韦德布什的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点，认为仅仅依靠市盈率可能会很棘手。苹果股票可能因更高的增长（5G周期、可穿戴设备、混合现实、苹果汽车）和更重的服务组合而被重新评级，从而带来更高的收入和更好的利润率。</blockquote></p><p> As AAPL hovers within two percentage points of its all-time high, I understand that investors should not expect outsized returns in the next 12 to 18 months. But I continue to find the stock a good buy-and-hold investment for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>由于 AAPL 徘徊在历史高点两个百分点以内，我理解投资者不应期望在未来 12 至 18 个月内获得巨额回报。但我仍然认为该股票是长期买入并持有的良好投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Expert Sees Apple Stock Falling 10%<blockquote>这位专家认为苹果股价下跌 10%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Expert Sees Apple Stock Falling 10%<blockquote>这位专家认为苹果股价下跌 10%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 09:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple shares remain stuck in the mud following strong fiscal Q3 results. One analyst believes that things will get even worse for the stock before they get better.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的第三财季业绩后，苹果股价仍陷入困境。一位分析师认为，在好转之前，该股的情况会变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> Applereported very solid fiscal Q3 numberson July 27, zipping past Wall Street’s most optimistic estimates once again. But as Apple stock failed to get traction after earnings season, not all analysts seem convinced that robust past performance will translate into higher share price.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司在 7 月 27 日公布了非常稳健的第三财季数据，再次超出了华尔街最乐观的预期。但由于苹果股票在财报季后未能获得牵引力，并非所有分析师似乎都相信过去强劲的业绩将转化为更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Take Bernstein Toni Sacconaghi, for instance. The Apple skeptic, who has a hold rating on the stock and price target of $132 apiece,believes that AAPL has 10% downside from current levels. The Apple Maven explores the reasons why shares might dip this much.</p><p><blockquote>以伯恩斯坦·托尼·萨科纳吉为例。这位苹果怀疑论者对该股给予持有评级，目标价为每股 132 美元，他认为 AAPL 较当前水平有 10% 的下行空间。这位苹果专家探讨了股价可能大幅下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78920b004c2e6135cfe065c8940151d\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple logo sign from an Apple store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果一家商店的苹果标志标志。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The case for a 10% loss</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10%损失的情况</b></blockquote></p><p> Toni begins his argument by recognizing that the bar had been set too high ahead of earnings season. This is reasonable, as Apple appreciated about 20% in the two months leading to its earnings day. Other Big Tech companies experienced similar “sell the news” pressure after reporting robust financial results –think of Microsoft(MSFT), for example.</p><p><blockquote>托尼在开始他的论点时承认，在财报季之前，门槛设定得太高了。这是合理的，因为苹果在财报发布前的两个月内升值了约 20%。其他大型科技公司在公布强劲的财务业绩后也面临着类似的 “抛售新闻 ”压力，比如微软（MSFT）。</blockquote></p><p> But the analyst’s concerns do not end here. According to him, there is a belief on the Street that things cannot get much better for the Cupertino company. Apple will start facing very tough comps starting now (see chart below) while dealing with supply chain challenges, and growth deceleration is all but a certainty at this point.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师的担忧并没有就此结束。据他说，街上有一种观点认为，库比蒂诺公司的情况不会好转了。从现在开始，苹果将开始面临非常艰难的竞争（见下图），同时应对供应链挑战，目前增长放缓几乎是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst thinks that revenue should be lighter than expected going forward and the iPhone, weaker through the next year. Apple is certainly more about services today than it used to be, but the iPhone remains a crucial component of the ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师认为，未来的收入应该低于预期，iPhone 明年的收入也会疲软。如今的苹果肯定比过去更注重服务，但iPhone仍然是生态系统的重要组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6090b256d9235de5597bfd07f68fa7\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's total revenue growth.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果总收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Sacconaghi also thinks that valuations have stretched too thin. Historically, AAPL has been valued at a discount to the market. Today, the stock trades eight turns higher on a trailing twelve-month P/E basis, at 29 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉先生还认为，估值过于薄弱。从历史上看，AAPL 的估值一直低于市场。如今，该股在过去 12 个月的市盈率基础上上涨了 8 倍，市盈率为 29 倍。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, Bernstein’s analyst believes that Apple deserves to be valued higher than the S&P 500 now, given the growth in the higher-margin and recurring revenue service businesses. But he questions how much is too much. The analyst thinks that a fair earnings multiple would be around 25 times.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，伯恩斯坦的分析师认为，鉴于利润率较高和经常性收入服务业务的增长，苹果现在的估值应该高于标普500。但他质疑多少才算太多。分析师认为，合理的市盈率约为 25 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> In my view, Bernstein’s analyst raises a few important points. Apple stock rallied ahead of earnings, which may explain a period of share price consolidation, even after strong earnings. It is also undeniable that comps will be very hard to beat immediately before, during and just after the 2021 holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，伯恩斯坦的分析师提出了几个重要观点。苹果股价在财报公布前上涨，这可能解释了一段时间的股价盘整，即使在财报强劲之后也是如此。同样不可否认的是，在2021年假期之前、期间和之后，comps将很难被击败。</blockquote></p><p> But I am not too concerned about the other points that Toni has raised. On valuation,I side with Wedbush’s Dan Ives in thinking that relying on P/E alone can be tricky. Apple stock has probably been re-rated for higher growth (5G cycle, wearables, mixed reality, Apple Car) and heavier service mix leading to stickier revenues and better margins.</p><p><blockquote>但我不太关心托尼提出的其他观点。在估值方面，我同意韦德布什的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点，认为仅仅依靠市盈率可能会很棘手。苹果股票可能因更高的增长（5G周期、可穿戴设备、混合现实、苹果汽车）和更重的服务组合而被重新评级，从而带来更高的收入和更好的利润率。</blockquote></p><p> As AAPL hovers within two percentage points of its all-time high, I understand that investors should not expect outsized returns in the next 12 to 18 months. But I continue to find the stock a good buy-and-hold investment for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>由于 AAPL 徘徊在历史高点两个百分点以内，我理解投资者不应期望在未来 12 至 18 个月内获得巨额回报。但我仍然认为该股票是长期买入并持有的良好投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/this-expert-sees-apple-stock-falling-10\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/this-expert-sees-apple-stock-falling-10","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127725180","content_text":"Apple shares remain stuck in the mud following strong fiscal Q3 results. One analyst believes that things will get even worse for the stock before they get better.\nApplereported very solid fiscal Q3 numberson July 27, zipping past Wall Street’s most optimistic estimates once again. But as Apple stock failed to get traction after earnings season, not all analysts seem convinced that robust past performance will translate into higher share price.\nTake Bernstein Toni Sacconaghi, for instance. The Apple skeptic, who has a hold rating on the stock and price target of $132 apiece,believes that AAPL has 10% downside from current levels. The Apple Maven explores the reasons why shares might dip this much.\nFigure 1: Apple logo sign from an Apple store.\nThe case for a 10% loss\nToni begins his argument by recognizing that the bar had been set too high ahead of earnings season. This is reasonable, as Apple appreciated about 20% in the two months leading to its earnings day. Other Big Tech companies experienced similar “sell the news” pressure after reporting robust financial results –think of Microsoft(MSFT), for example.\nBut the analyst’s concerns do not end here. According to him, there is a belief on the Street that things cannot get much better for the Cupertino company. Apple will start facing very tough comps starting now (see chart below) while dealing with supply chain challenges, and growth deceleration is all but a certainty at this point.\nThe analyst thinks that revenue should be lighter than expected going forward and the iPhone, weaker through the next year. Apple is certainly more about services today than it used to be, but the iPhone remains a crucial component of the ecosystem.\nFigure 2: Apple's total revenue growth.\nMr. Sacconaghi also thinks that valuations have stretched too thin. Historically, AAPL has been valued at a discount to the market. Today, the stock trades eight turns higher on a trailing twelve-month P/E basis, at 29 times earnings.\nTo be clear, Bernstein’s analyst believes that Apple deserves to be valued higher than the S&P 500 now, given the growth in the higher-margin and recurring revenue service businesses. But he questions how much is too much. The analyst thinks that a fair earnings multiple would be around 25 times.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nIn my view, Bernstein’s analyst raises a few important points. Apple stock rallied ahead of earnings, which may explain a period of share price consolidation, even after strong earnings. It is also undeniable that comps will be very hard to beat immediately before, during and just after the 2021 holiday season.\nBut I am not too concerned about the other points that Toni has raised. On valuation,I side with Wedbush’s Dan Ives in thinking that relying on P/E alone can be tricky. Apple stock has probably been re-rated for higher growth (5G cycle, wearables, mixed reality, Apple Car) and heavier service mix leading to stickier revenues and better margins.\nAs AAPL hovers within two percentage points of its all-time high, I understand that investors should not expect outsized returns in the next 12 to 18 months. But I continue to find the stock a good buy-and-hold investment for the long term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1325,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":29,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/899798105"}
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