霍尔木兹海峡油轮通行中断及地区紧张局势升级 - 老虎社区

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04-09

美油期货涨超8%

美油期货涨超8%

04-09

分析师：原油期货收复部分失地，受对停火协议的担忧影响

分析师：原油期货收复部分失地，受对停火协议的担忧影响

04-09

北约发言人：显然，美国希望各方作出具体承诺并采取行动，以确保霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由。

北约发言人：显然，美国希望各方作出具体承诺并采取行动，以确保霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由。

用户讨论

04-09

基准情景下，高盛预计霍尔木兹海峡能源流量将从本周末起逐步恢复，波斯湾原油出口在此后约一个月内回归战前水平。在此假设下，布伦特原油三季度均价预计为82美元/桶，四季度为80美元/桶。不利情景下，若海峡重开时间被"推迟"一个月，高盛预计布伦特原油在下半年均价将超过100美元/桶，全年均价亦将维持在这一水平以上。极端情景下，若封锁持续时间更长，并叠加区域内部分产能损失，油价将进一步走高——高盛预测三季度布伦特原油均价将达120美元/桶，四季度为115美元/桶。

高盛：霍尔木兹若再封锁一个月，布油全年均价将在100美元以上

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15:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛：霍尔木兹若再封锁一个月，布油全年均价将在100美元以上","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116456707","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛最新警告，若霍尔木兹海峡封锁状态再延续一个月，布伦特原油全年均价将突破100美元，油价上行风险依然显著。基准情景下，高盛预计霍尔木兹海峡能源流量将从本周末起逐步恢复，波斯湾原油出口在此后约一个月内回归战前水平。不利情景下，若海峡重开时间被\"推迟\"一个月，高盛预计布伦特原油在下半年均价将超过100美元/桶，全年均价亦将维持在这一水平以上。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>高盛最新警告，若霍尔木兹海峡封锁状态再延续一个月，布伦特原油全年均价将突破100美元，油价上行风险依然显著。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4月9日，据彭博报道，高盛分析师Daan Struyven等人在最新研报中指出，&#34;<strong>局势仍存在高度不确定性</strong>&#34;，并援引美国副总统万斯关于停火协议&#34;脆弱&#34;的表态，强调&#34;我们继续认为油价预测面临的风险偏向上行&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告指出，霍尔木兹海峡自今年2月美以联合打击伊朗、战争爆发以来，已基本对过境船只关闭。停火协议虽以重开该航道为条件，但双方实际达成的具体内容目前仍不明朗，市场对局势走向的判断分歧较大。</p><h2 id=\"id_362766323\" style=\"text-align: left;\">三种情景下的油价路径：从82美元到120美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛在研报中设定了三种情景，对应截然不同的油价走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>基准情景</strong>下，高盛预计霍尔木兹海峡能源流量将从本周末起逐步恢复，波斯湾原油出口在此后约一个月内回归战前水平。在此假设下，布伦特原油三季度均价预计为82美元/桶，四季度为80美元/桶。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>不利情景</strong>下，若海峡重开时间被&#34;推迟&#34;一个月，高盛预计布伦特原油在下半年均价将超过100美元/桶，全年均价亦将维持在这一水平以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>极端情景</strong>下，若封锁持续时间更长，并叠加区域内部分产能损失，油价将进一步走高——高盛预测三季度布伦特原油均价将达120美元/桶，四季度为115美元/桶。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道指出，布伦特原油在本轮危机期间最高触及119.50美元/桶，<strong>与高盛极端情景下的预测区间高度吻合，显示市场已在最坏预期下对供应冲击进行过充分定价。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前约97美元的价格水平，则处于基准情景与不利情景之间，反映出市场对停火协议能否有效落实仍持审慎态度。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛：霍尔木兹若再封锁一个月，布油全年均价将在100美元以上\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-09 15:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769562><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛最新警告，若霍尔木兹海峡封锁状态再延续一个月，布伦特原油全年均价将突破100美元，油价上行风险依然显著。4月9日，据彭博报道，高盛分析师Daan Struyven等人在最新研报中指出，\"局势仍存在高度不确定性\"，并援引美国副总统万斯关于停火协议\"脆弱\"的表态，强调\"我们继续认为油价预测面临的风险偏向上行\"。报告指出，霍尔木兹海峡自今年2月美以联合打击伊朗、战争爆发以来，已基本对过境船只关闭。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769562\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cf7c774e5d1ba1d8d5b994406c34c75","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769562","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116456707","content_text":"高盛最新警告，若霍尔木兹海峡封锁状态再延续一个月，布伦特原油全年均价将突破100美元，油价上行风险依然显著。4月9日，据彭博报道，高盛分析师Daan Struyven等人在最新研报中指出，\"局势仍存在高度不确定性\"，并援引美国副总统万斯关于停火协议\"脆弱\"的表态，强调\"我们继续认为油价预测面临的风险偏向上行\"。报告指出，霍尔木兹海峡自今年2月美以联合打击伊朗、战争爆发以来，已基本对过境船只关闭。停火协议虽以重开该航道为条件，但双方实际达成的具体内容目前仍不明朗，市场对局势走向的判断分歧较大。三种情景下的油价路径：从82美元到120美元高盛在研报中设定了三种情景，对应截然不同的油价走势。基准情景下，高盛预计霍尔木兹海峡能源流量将从本周末起逐步恢复，波斯湾原油出口在此后约一个月内回归战前水平。在此假设下，布伦特原油三季度均价预计为82美元/桶，四季度为80美元/桶。不利情景下，若海峡重开时间被\"推迟\"一个月，高盛预计布伦特原油在下半年均价将超过100美元/桶，全年均价亦将维持在这一水平以上。极端情景下，若封锁持续时间更长，并叠加区域内部分产能损失，油价将进一步走高——高盛预测三季度布伦特原油均价将达120美元/桶，四季度为115美元/桶。报道指出，布伦特原油在本轮危机期间最高触及119.50美元/桶，与高盛极端情景下的预测区间高度吻合，显示市场已在最坏预期下对供应冲击进行过充分定价。当前约97美元的价格水平，则处于基准情景与不利情景之间，反映出市场对停火协议能否有效落实仍持审慎态度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}]}