不明真相群众的个人主页 - 老虎社区

不明真相群众

不明真相群众

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IP属地：辽宁

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不明真相群众

2017-02-06

减税是不是最大的利好消息

(1)企业税从目前的35%降到15%。对于合伙人制等纳税中间实体(例如LimitedPartnership)，对于合伙人征收的最高个人所得税也降到15%。(2)对于美国公司在海外子公司的累积利润提取回国一次性收取10%的税，分十年付清。对美国公司在海外子公司的未来利润每年征税。 #特朗普上任的风险vs机遇#

减税是不是最大的利好消息

不明真相群众

2016-05-17

不知道这股今天4块能收吗

$MGT Capital Investments(MGT)$心脏完全受不了了

不知道这股今天4块能收吗

不明真相群众

2017-07-28

找到原因了

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$😅

找到原因了

不明真相群众

2016-12-28

这个没有人吧

$LightPath Technologies(LPTH)$ …

这个没有人吧

不明真相群众

2016-08-15

盘前居然涨了这么多，怎么回事有人知道吗

$动视暴雪(ATVI)$财报那么好都没这样

盘前居然涨了这么多，怎么回事有人知道吗

不明真相群众

2016-05-20

这要重回30的节奏吗

$太阳城(SCTY)$天天涨！

这要重回30的节奏吗

不明真相群众

2017-02-28

我上车了

$Priceline(PCLN)$。 …

不明真相群众

2017-01-18

下跌通道，割了

$沃尔玛(WMT)$ 😢

下跌通道，割了

不明真相群众

2017-02-16

幸亏跑了

$The Kraft Heinz Company(KHC)$ 这是怎么了

不明真相群众

2016-05-18

到4元左右应该稳了吧

$MGT Capital Investments(MGT)$ 太刺激了

到4元左右应该稳了吧

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[看跌] [看跌]","listText":"[看跌] [看跌] [看跌]","text":"[看跌] [看跌] [看跌]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967036188","repostId":"1173908549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173908549","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1584414324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173908549?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-17 11:05","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"李迅雷：美欧已在金融危机边缘，中国要防房价暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173908549","media":"界面商学院","summary":"随着新冠肺炎疫情海外扩散，全球金融市场大幅震荡，投资者对发生新一轮全球金融危机的担忧不断上升。美联储罕见地在半个月的时间里两次大举降息，在此背景下，有关中国宏观政策应如何发力的声音渐大渐杂。\n针对近期","content":"<p><span>随着新冠肺炎疫情海外扩散，全球金融市场大幅震荡，投资者对发生新一轮全球金融危机的担忧不断上升。美联储罕见地在半个月的时间里两次大举降息，在此背景下，有关中国宏观政策应如何发力的声音渐大渐杂。</span></p>\n<p><span>针对近期的热点问题，界面新闻分别专访了几位重量级的经济学家，希望从中找到客观理性的声音，对市场关切做出回应。</span></p>\n<p><span>中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为，当前欧美已经来到金融危机的边缘，未来需要关注美国上市公司债务会否发生大规模违约，这可能是危机爆发的导火索。美联储在经过两次紧急降息后，未来可能会继续降息，甚至将利率下调至负区间。</span></p>\n<p><span>为应对新冠肺炎疫情可能造成的经济冲击，美联储在当地时间3月3日宣布紧急降息50个基点，这是自2008年金融危机以来联储首次在非政策会议期间降息。但降息带来了更多的恐慌，美股上周经历大幅动荡，一周之内两次触及熔断。3月15日，美联储再度宣布降息100个基点，并推出7000亿美元量化宽松（QE）计划。</span></p>\n<p><span>李迅雷认为，就业问题是今年中国经济最大的风险。现在不是说要达到什么目标，而是要防范系统性金融风险，不要出现大的就业问题。他特别提到，政府要对房地产市场可能出现的波动做好预案。在“房住不炒”的前提下，稳定预期，防止房价暴跌。</span></p>\n<p><span>对于宏观政策如何发力，李迅雷表示，在财力有限的情况下，应尽量补贴低收入群体，通过提振消费，进而稳定就业。货币政策相对来说，空间较大，可以相机抉择，但要给市场一个好的预期。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>以下为访谈实录：</span></b></p>\n<p><span><b>界面新闻：北京时间周一凌晨美联储突然降息1个百分点至0%-0.25%，并重启QE。您怎么评价这一举措？</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>李迅雷：</b></span><span>这个举措主要还是应对流动性问题，现在市场比较恐慌，与其等到市场大跌之后再降息，还不如现在先降了。预计美联储接下来可能还会继续降息，可能降到负利率。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>界面新闻：您认为今年发生全球金融危机乃至经济危机的风险有多高？</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>李迅雷：</b></span><span>我觉得已经进入到金融危机的边缘了，尤其是美国和欧洲。未来主要看哪些美国的大企业借钱来回购股票，到时候，债能不能还得了？如果出现大部分违约的话，资金链就会中断，这样就爆发危机了。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果危机真的来了，应对难度肯定比2008年要大。2008年的时候，美国政府的杠杆率只有40%，现在杠杆水平大约在100%，政府还有多少余力救市？购买资产要有钱，但现在不管是欧盟还是美国、日本，政府的杠杆水平都太高了。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>界面新闻：今年美国已经降息1.5个百分点，这会不会倒逼中国央行加大降息幅度？</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>李迅雷：</b></span><span>对于中国来讲，名义上降息的空间比较大。但实际上，我们需要评估降息的效果。我们需要考虑，现在面临的问题是不是资金成本过高的问题。如果不是，而是正常经济运作没法开展的话，那降息需要慎重。</span></p>\n<p><span>我认为，我国现在面临的主要问题是疫情导致复工复产的进度比较慢，而且目前我国CPI（居民消费价格指数）仍在5%以上，在这种情况下，央行还是要以我为主，按照自己的步调进行政策工具的组合。</span></p>\n<p><span>在全球货币宽松下，我国货币政策空间在变大，但具体怎么用，需要相机抉择，主要是要给市场一个好的预期。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>界面新闻：对于今年的中国经济，您最担心的问题是什么？</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>李迅雷：</b></span><span>我还是担心就业。这次的就业问题比2008年金融危机时严重很多。2008年金融危机爆发之后，生产可以不受影响，但疫情爆发之后，生产受到影响，正常就业都受到了影响，更何况是失业呢？这是疫情带来的一个比较大的影响。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>界面新闻：您对全年中国GDP增速的预测是多少？</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>李迅雷：</b></span><span>没法预测。因为现在美国、欧洲的疫情都没有结束。中国经济是一个全球化的经济，是全球制造业的中心。而海外的疫情什么时候解除，会影响到中国的出口和进口，影响到全球产业链，所以这块没法预测。要实现“两个翻番”，按我们之前的测算，2020年GDP增速至少要达到5.7%才可以达到目标。</span></p>\n<p><span>我觉得不爆发金融危机就算好事情，现在大家都在担忧这个。所以，现在要运用底线思维，不是说要达到什么目标，而是要防范系统性金融风险。要做的是把底线稳住，不要出现大的就业问题就可以了。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>界面新闻：从这个角度来说，宏观政策应该怎么来调配呢？</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>李迅雷：</b></span><span>那就是把房地产给稳住，说白了，就是要防止房价暴跌。因为在中国，如果说要触发金融危机，可能就是房地产。</span></p>\n<p><span>政府对于房地产市场波动要有预案，但现在还不到房地产政策调整的时候。危机的传导是有过程的，不是美国发生危机，中国马上就会发生危机，可能会有一年左右的时间，慢慢传导过来，这个时候就需要我们提前准备好对策。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>界面新闻：您在提振服务业和稳就业方面，有何想法？</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>李迅雷：</b></span><span>稳定服务业的就业，其实还是需要刺激需求。现在因为疫情影响，居民在消费上还是有顾虑。比如，大家都戴着口罩，那肯定是不敢去外面吃饭了。</span></p>\n<p><span>那怎么能够消除顾虑？我觉得这是需要政府考虑的。实际上现在国内新增病例已经很少了，政府在引导消费上要把握好度。如果说都是守土有责，只要这个地方出现病例，地方政府就要担责，那整个地方经济都难有起色，必须让政府在这方面免责。</span></p>\n<p><span>大家有公共安全意识是挺好的，但是过度防御，对经济带来的危害可能是非常大的。因为有些消费过去就过去了，尤其服务消费这块是很难再弥补的。你在外面吃饭，就算疫情过去了，也不可能要吃个两倍，旅游也是一样的。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>界面新闻：刺激消费方面，政策重心应该放在哪？</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>李迅雷：</b></span><span>我觉得重心还是放在收入结构改革，为低收入阶层提供更多的收入保障，缩小中低收入阶层跟高收入阶层之间的差距。这方面的政策力度要加大。</span></p>\n<p><span>至于消费券的发放，首先要判断哪一部分人是属于需要发放、需要救助的，然后通过比较市场化的手段进行。发放的渠道有多个，一个是对低收入阶层，消费券应由政府补贴，用于定向购买某种消费品；一种是城市、企业发放的旅游消费券，鼓励大家出去旅游；还有一些购物的消费券，不一定由政府部门来发，各个企业、商场都可以发。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>界面新闻：都由政府发放消费券的话，会不会给财政带来比较大的压力？</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>李迅雷：</b></span><span>政府发放消费券当然是依靠财政收入、财政支出。与其搞投资、搞基建，还不如发消费券。为什么香港政府每年都给老百姓发钱？就是它财政支出省下来的。就像海外，要做一个投资，都要纳税人充分讨论，所以在美国要造座桥，要修条路，讨论20年都不一定能够修起来。但是你在居民养老这些方面支出，大家都没有任何问题。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>界面新闻：现在大家都比较关注财政如何发力，有人鼓励大规模的基建，包括新基建，也有人说应该进行“二次房改”，建安居房。您怎么看待现在这些声音？</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>李迅雷：</b></span><span>挺难的，关键是没钱。从财政赤字来讲，按照目前情况，比较偏紧的财政赤字可能要到3.5%，如果再松一松的话，可能要到4%-5%了。原因在于减税、降费、疫情导致企业盈利状况恶化，税收收入减少，财政收入整体大幅下降，刚性支出却在增加，比如防控疫情。搞大基建，钱从哪里来？这个问题是比较大的。</span></p>","source":"lsy1584343375504","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李迅雷：美欧已在金融危机边缘，中国要防房价暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-17 11:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xSruQKEKohKFltBxmZLBlA><strong>界面商学院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着新冠肺炎疫情海外扩散，全球金融市场大幅震荡，投资者对发生新一轮全球金融危机的担忧不断上升。美联储罕见地在半个月的时间里两次大举降息，在此背景下，有关中国宏观政策应如何发力的声音渐大渐杂。\n针对近期的热点问题，界面新闻分别专访了几位重量级的经济学家，希望从中找到客观理性的声音，对市场关切做出回应。\n中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为，当前欧美已经来到金融危机的边缘，未来需要关注美国上市公司债务会否...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xSruQKEKohKFltBxmZLBlA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d948a659c25232f213f44c6c75c5448","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xSruQKEKohKFltBxmZLBlA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173908549","content_text":"随着新冠肺炎疫情海外扩散，全球金融市场大幅震荡，投资者对发生新一轮全球金融危机的担忧不断上升。美联储罕见地在半个月的时间里两次大举降息，在此背景下，有关中国宏观政策应如何发力的声音渐大渐杂。\n针对近期的热点问题，界面新闻分别专访了几位重量级的经济学家，希望从中找到客观理性的声音，对市场关切做出回应。\n中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为，当前欧美已经来到金融危机的边缘，未来需要关注美国上市公司债务会否发生大规模违约，这可能是危机爆发的导火索。美联储在经过两次紧急降息后，未来可能会继续降息，甚至将利率下调至负区间。\n为应对新冠肺炎疫情可能造成的经济冲击，美联储在当地时间3月3日宣布紧急降息50个基点，这是自2008年金融危机以来联储首次在非政策会议期间降息。但降息带来了更多的恐慌，美股上周经历大幅动荡，一周之内两次触及熔断。3月15日，美联储再度宣布降息100个基点，并推出7000亿美元量化宽松（QE）计划。\n李迅雷认为，就业问题是今年中国经济最大的风险。现在不是说要达到什么目标，而是要防范系统性金融风险，不要出现大的就业问题。他特别提到，政府要对房地产市场可能出现的波动做好预案。在“房住不炒”的前提下，稳定预期，防止房价暴跌。\n对于宏观政策如何发力，李迅雷表示，在财力有限的情况下，应尽量补贴低收入群体，通过提振消费，进而稳定就业。货币政策相对来说，空间较大，可以相机抉择，但要给市场一个好的预期。\n以下为访谈实录：\n界面新闻：北京时间周一凌晨美联储突然降息1个百分点至0%-0.25%，并重启QE。您怎么评价这一举措？\n李迅雷：这个举措主要还是应对流动性问题，现在市场比较恐慌，与其等到市场大跌之后再降息，还不如现在先降了。预计美联储接下来可能还会继续降息，可能降到负利率。\n界面新闻：您认为今年发生全球金融危机乃至经济危机的风险有多高？\n李迅雷：我觉得已经进入到金融危机的边缘了，尤其是美国和欧洲。未来主要看哪些美国的大企业借钱来回购股票，到时候，债能不能还得了？如果出现大部分违约的话，资金链就会中断，这样就爆发危机了。\n如果危机真的来了，应对难度肯定比2008年要大。2008年的时候，美国政府的杠杆率只有40%，现在杠杆水平大约在100%，政府还有多少余力救市？购买资产要有钱，但现在不管是欧盟还是美国、日本，政府的杠杆水平都太高了。\n界面新闻：今年美国已经降息1.5个百分点，这会不会倒逼中国央行加大降息幅度？\n李迅雷：对于中国来讲，名义上降息的空间比较大。但实际上，我们需要评估降息的效果。我们需要考虑，现在面临的问题是不是资金成本过高的问题。如果不是，而是正常经济运作没法开展的话，那降息需要慎重。\n我认为，我国现在面临的主要问题是疫情导致复工复产的进度比较慢，而且目前我国CPI（居民消费价格指数）仍在5%以上，在这种情况下，央行还是要以我为主，按照自己的步调进行政策工具的组合。\n在全球货币宽松下，我国货币政策空间在变大，但具体怎么用，需要相机抉择，主要是要给市场一个好的预期。\n界面新闻：对于今年的中国经济，您最担心的问题是什么？\n李迅雷：我还是担心就业。这次的就业问题比2008年金融危机时严重很多。2008年金融危机爆发之后，生产可以不受影响，但疫情爆发之后，生产受到影响，正常就业都受到了影响，更何况是失业呢？这是疫情带来的一个比较大的影响。\n界面新闻：您对全年中国GDP增速的预测是多少？\n李迅雷：没法预测。因为现在美国、欧洲的疫情都没有结束。中国经济是一个全球化的经济，是全球制造业的中心。而海外的疫情什么时候解除，会影响到中国的出口和进口，影响到全球产业链，所以这块没法预测。要实现“两个翻番”，按我们之前的测算，2020年GDP增速至少要达到5.7%才可以达到目标。\n我觉得不爆发金融危机就算好事情，现在大家都在担忧这个。所以，现在要运用底线思维，不是说要达到什么目标，而是要防范系统性金融风险。要做的是把底线稳住，不要出现大的就业问题就可以了。\n界面新闻：从这个角度来说，宏观政策应该怎么来调配呢？\n李迅雷：那就是把房地产给稳住，说白了，就是要防止房价暴跌。因为在中国，如果说要触发金融危机，可能就是房地产。\n政府对于房地产市场波动要有预案，但现在还不到房地产政策调整的时候。危机的传导是有过程的，不是美国发生危机，中国马上就会发生危机，可能会有一年左右的时间，慢慢传导过来，这个时候就需要我们提前准备好对策。\n界面新闻：您在提振服务业和稳就业方面，有何想法？\n李迅雷：稳定服务业的就业，其实还是需要刺激需求。现在因为疫情影响，居民在消费上还是有顾虑。比如，大家都戴着口罩，那肯定是不敢去外面吃饭了。\n那怎么能够消除顾虑？我觉得这是需要政府考虑的。实际上现在国内新增病例已经很少了，政府在引导消费上要把握好度。如果说都是守土有责，只要这个地方出现病例，地方政府就要担责，那整个地方经济都难有起色，必须让政府在这方面免责。\n大家有公共安全意识是挺好的，但是过度防御，对经济带来的危害可能是非常大的。因为有些消费过去就过去了，尤其服务消费这块是很难再弥补的。你在外面吃饭，就算疫情过去了，也不可能要吃个两倍，旅游也是一样的。\n界面新闻：刺激消费方面，政策重心应该放在哪？\n李迅雷：我觉得重心还是放在收入结构改革，为低收入阶层提供更多的收入保障，缩小中低收入阶层跟高收入阶层之间的差距。这方面的政策力度要加大。\n至于消费券的发放，首先要判断哪一部分人是属于需要发放、需要救助的，然后通过比较市场化的手段进行。发放的渠道有多个，一个是对低收入阶层，消费券应由政府补贴，用于定向购买某种消费品；一种是城市、企业发放的旅游消费券，鼓励大家出去旅游；还有一些购物的消费券，不一定由政府部门来发，各个企业、商场都可以发。\n界面新闻：都由政府发放消费券的话，会不会给财政带来比较大的压力？\n李迅雷：政府发放消费券当然是依靠财政收入、财政支出。与其搞投资、搞基建，还不如发消费券。为什么香港政府每年都给老百姓发钱？就是它财政支出省下来的。就像海外，要做一个投资，都要纳税人充分讨论，所以在美国要造座桥，要修条路，讨论20年都不一定能够修起来。但是你在居民养老这些方面支出，大家都没有任何问题。\n界面新闻：现在大家都比较关注财政如何发力，有人鼓励大规模的基建，包括新基建，也有人说应该进行“二次房改”，建安居房。您怎么看待现在这些声音？\n李迅雷：挺难的，关键是没钱。从财政赤字来讲，按照目前情况，比较偏紧的财政赤字可能要到3.5%，如果再松一松的话，可能要到4%-5%了。原因在于减税、降费、疫情导致企业盈利状况恶化，税收收入减少，财政收入整体大幅下降，刚性支出却在增加，比如防控疫情。搞大基建，钱从哪里来？这个问题是比较大的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":967036026,"gmtCreate":1584490105065,"gmtModify":1704354429612,"author":{"id":"141907668811776","authorId":"141907668811776","name":"不明真相群众","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/614fcf5d85f4ebd4f5ee15735f4330f9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"141907668811776","idStr":"141907668811776"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"两头吃的美股","listText":"两头吃的美股","text":"两头吃的美股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967036026","repostId":"1157746966","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":78431,"gmtCreate":1501176886492,"gmtModify":1704879314095,"author":{"id":"141907668811776","authorId":"141907668811776","name":"不明真相群众","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/614fcf5d85f4ebd4f5ee15735f4330f9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"141907668811776","idStr":"141907668811776"},"themes":[],"title":"找到原因了","htmlText":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$😅","listText":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$😅","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$😅","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/ea4e1e1caf077a2531cca3b605a4d5c3"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/78431","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":47502,"gmtCreate":1488812627759,"gmtModify":1704875455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