GE19的个人主页 - 老虎社区

GE19

GE19

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0勋章

2019-07-17

$北京体育文化(01803)$有人比我亏的多吗？这股还能不能玩？

2019-10-09

$A50指数主连(CNmain)$ 突然暴涨？啥情况？

2019-09-09

$A50指数主连(CNmain)$ 看不懂了，不是跟随大盘指数吗？大盘今天这么涨，它居然跌？

2024-10-07

‌$老虎证券(TIGR)$ ‌长期持有，本月肯定能到20，对比其他券商，老虎市值还是太低了。今天这一波，是震荡甩人下车，然后低吸，大家要稳住手中的筹码，别被吓出去了

2019-07-19

$Camber Energy(CEI)$老子准备割肉，断腕了！**畜生！！

2019-09-26

$A50指数主连(CNmain)$ 不合常理！！A股大跳水，这货居然还涨，到底是不是跟随A股指数的哦

2019-08-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 我就问，会不会跟斗鱼一样，盘前大涨，盘后直泻？？现在都不敢买这些利好的股票了，被斗鱼坑怕了！

2019-08-13

$斗鱼(DOYU)$ 老子以后再碰斗鱼就是狗！！

2019-07-17

$北京体育文化(01803)$ 好样的，给我起来，6块8建的仓

2019-07-05

$中烟香港(06055)$ 18持有，等到上100，买房就看他了

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002144\">宏达高科</a>（002144）报收于13.16元，较前一交易日下跌1.13%，最新总市值为23.26亿元。该股当日开盘13.27元，最高13.34元，最低13.02元，成交额达6785.66万元，换手率为3.75%。</p><p>同日，宏达高科发布公告称，公司原定于2025年10月25日披露2025年第三季度报告，因部分工作需进一步完善，为确保信息披露的真实、准确、完整，经向深圳证券交易所申请，现将披露时间延期至2025年10月30日。公司董事会保证公告内容无虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对其真实性、准确性、完整性承担法律责任。公司对此次延期给投资者带来的不便深表歉意，敬请广大投资者谅解。公司指定信息披露媒体为《证券时报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn），所有信息均以在上述媒体刊登的正式公告为准，请投资者关注相关风险。</p><p><strong><em>最新公告列表</em></strong></p><ul><li>《关于2025年第三季度报告延期披露的公告》</li></ul><p>以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。</p></body></html>","source":"stockstar","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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class=\"h-time\">2025-10-24 17:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>截至2025年10月24日收盘，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002144\">宏达高科</a>（002144）报收于13.16元，较前一交易日下跌1.13%，最新总市值为23.26亿元。该股当日开盘13.27元，最高13.34元，最低13.02元，成交额达6785.66万元，换手率为3.75%。</p><p>同日，宏达高科发布公告称，公司原定于2025年10月25日披露2025年第三季度报告，因部分工作需进一步完善，为确保信息披露的真实、准确、完整，经向深圳证券交易所申请，现将披露时间延期至2025年10月30日。公司董事会保证公告内容无虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对其真实性、准确性、完整性承担法律责任。公司对此次延期给投资者带来的不便深表歉意，敬请广大投资者谅解。公司指定信息披露媒体为《证券时报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn），所有信息均以在上述媒体刊登的正式公告为准，请投资者关注相关风险。</p><p><strong><em>最新公告列表</em></strong></p><ul><li>《关于2025年第三季度报告延期披露的公告》</li></ul><p>以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK0028":"国家队","BK0247":"纺织业","002144":"宏达高科"},"source_url":"https://stock.stockstar.com/RB2025102400031163.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2577453599","content_text":"截至2025年10月24日收盘，宏达高科（002144）报收于13.16元，较前一交易日下跌1.13%，最新总市值为23.26亿元。该股当日开盘13.27元，最高13.34元，最低13.02元，成交额达6785.66万元，换手率为3.75%。同日，宏达高科发布公告称，公司原定于2025年10月25日披露2025年第三季度报告，因部分工作需进一步完善，为确保信息披露的真实、准确、完整，经向深圳证券交易所申请，现将披露时间延期至2025年10月30日。公司董事会保证公告内容无虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对其真实性、准确性、完整性承担法律责任。公司对此次延期给投资者带来的不便深表歉意，敬请广大投资者谅解。公司指定信息披露媒体为《证券时报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn），所有信息均以在上述媒体刊登的正式公告为准，请投资者关注相关风险。最新公告列表《关于2025年第三季度报告延期披露的公告》以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"002144":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":512339077222536,"gmtCreate":1766109826520,"gmtModify":1766109828140,"author":{"id":"189961847139156","authorId":"189961847139156","name":"GE19","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1740cf8db45b82f79751f2738afcbc9c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"189961847139156","authorIdStr":"189961847139156"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512339077222536","repostId":"2577453599","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2577453599","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"证券之星始创于1996年，是国内领先的金融信息及综合服务平台。关注证券之星，即时获取有价值的财经资讯。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"证券之星","id":"1082532455","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f"},"pubTimestamp":1761297817,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2577453599?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-24 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002144\">宏达高科</a>（002144）报收于13.16元，较前一交易日下跌1.13%，最新总市值为23.26亿元。该股当日开盘13.27元，最高13.34元，最低13.02元，成交额达6785.66万元，换手率为3.75%。</p><p>同日，宏达高科发布公告称，公司原定于2025年10月25日披露2025年第三季度报告，因部分工作需进一步完善，为确保信息披露的真实、准确、完整，经向深圳证券交易所申请，现将披露时间延期至2025年10月30日。公司董事会保证公告内容无虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对其真实性、准确性、完整性承担法律责任。公司对此次延期给投资者带来的不便深表歉意，敬请广大投资者谅解。公司指定信息披露媒体为《证券时报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn），所有信息均以在上述媒体刊登的正式公告为准，请投资者关注相关风险。</p><p><strong><em>最新公告列表</em></strong></p><ul><li>《关于2025年第三季度报告延期披露的公告》</li></ul><p>以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。</p></body></html>","source":"stockstar","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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class=\"h-time\">2025-10-24 17:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>截至2025年10月24日收盘，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002144\">宏达高科</a>（002144）报收于13.16元，较前一交易日下跌1.13%，最新总市值为23.26亿元。该股当日开盘13.27元，最高13.34元，最低13.02元，成交额达6785.66万元，换手率为3.75%。</p><p>同日，宏达高科发布公告称，公司原定于2025年10月25日披露2025年第三季度报告，因部分工作需进一步完善，为确保信息披露的真实、准确、完整，经向深圳证券交易所申请，现将披露时间延期至2025年10月30日。公司董事会保证公告内容无虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对其真实性、准确性、完整性承担法律责任。公司对此次延期给投资者带来的不便深表歉意，敬请广大投资者谅解。公司指定信息披露媒体为《证券时报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn），所有信息均以在上述媒体刊登的正式公告为准，请投资者关注相关风险。</p><p><strong><em>最新公告列表</em></strong></p><ul><li>《关于2025年第三季度报告延期披露的公告》</li></ul><p>以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK0028":"国家队","BK0247":"纺织业","002144":"宏达高科"},"source_url":"https://stock.stockstar.com/RB2025102400031163.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2577453599","content_text":"截至2025年10月24日收盘，宏达高科（002144）报收于13.16元，较前一交易日下跌1.13%，最新总市值为23.26亿元。该股当日开盘13.27元，最高13.34元，最低13.02元，成交额达6785.66万元，换手率为3.75%。同日，宏达高科发布公告称，公司原定于2025年10月25日披露2025年第三季度报告，因部分工作需进一步完善，为确保信息披露的真实、准确、完整，经向深圳证券交易所申请，现将披露时间延期至2025年10月30日。公司董事会保证公告内容无虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对其真实性、准确性、完整性承担法律责任。公司对此次延期给投资者带来的不便深表歉意，敬请广大投资者谅解。公司指定信息披露媒体为《证券时报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn），所有信息均以在上述媒体刊登的正式公告为准，请投资者关注相关风险。最新公告列表《关于2025年第三季度报告延期披露的公告》以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"002144":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":392053511594416,"gmtCreate":1736748627981,"gmtModify":1736748628723,"author":{"id":"189961847139156","authorId":"189961847139156","name":"GE19","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1740cf8db45b82f79751f2738afcbc9c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"189961847139156","authorIdStr":"189961847139156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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15:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“新冠”疫情不可怕！我们该全面操心经济了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139503311","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"企业，尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/791a7ad4ff412aa090638a75f9ee16aa\" /></p><p><b><span>直接说重点：</span></b></p><p><span>1，只要地方官吏放下了所谓的面子与政绩，新冠就一定会控制住。时间问题。</span><b><span>所有可预判的问题都不可怕，包括新冠</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>2，现在开始，我们应该自上而下，全面操心经济。经济不可能一直停下去。企业，尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。</span><b><span>家庭的资产负债表再恶化，家庭也不会消失。但很多中小企业现金流量表与资产负债表一旦恶化超过一定时长，一口气缓不过来，这个企业就可能没有回头路了</span></b><span>。救它们，更需要争分夺秒；</span></p><p><span>3，2003年非典，四个季度GDP增速分别为11.1%、9.1%、10%和10%，非典主要影响了2季度GDP增速约1.5个百分点。全年看，受影响最大的第三产业增加值减慢0.8个百分点。当年第三产业占GDP比重为32%，也即非典大致影响当年GDP增速0.3—0.5个百分点，并不算大。</span><b><span>绝大多数人正是依据SARS的经验来判断新冠对经济的影响，但这会带来重大误判与误导；</span></b></p><p><span>4，</span><span><b>2003年，中国经济还是一个睡凉席都不感冒的二十岁小伙</b></span><span>。彼时GDP总量仅11.7万亿，2019年已是99万亿。而且，彼时最易受病毒冲击的三产规模不大，其增加值占GDP比重仅为32%，三分之一不到。但同样的数据，2019年已经达到54%，超过一半——仅按这个数据，</span><span><b>新冠就可以轻松拉低全年GDP一个点。</b></span></p><p><span>更关键的是，</span><span><b>2003年中国刚加入WTO不久</b></span><span>，正在全面享受融入全球分工与市场的红利——</span><span><b>这是中国经济史上唯一可以与1979年中美建交并改革开放相提并论的重大拐点性事件，同时中国自身经济也正处在重化工业化、城镇化和人口红利消费升级的自我强化上升阶段，内外的修复能力与上升动能都堪称充足。</b></span></p><p><span>但现如今的经济身体素质，早已今非昔比。具体数据我不展开了，在我过去的分析里很详尽；</span></p><p><span>5，</span><span><b>还有一个巨大的黑天鹅变量，多数人都还没有纳入考量模型</b></span><span>。世卫组织(WHO)将于近日召开紧急会议，以确定是否把中国新冠纳入“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件&quot; ——用普通话粗暴翻译，就是是否把中国纳入疫区，而考量的核心因素，就是病毒持续人传人的能力。事实上，柳叶刀确定的新冠病毒R值(平均每个病毒患者（携带者）要传染的人数)为2.90——3.1，远超非典1.77和1.85的R值。</span></p><p><span>纳入公共卫生事件，意味着如果没有大规模的应对行动，疫情将无法被妥善控制  。</span><b><span>这个纳入是一把双刃剑</span></b><span>，一方面有助于全世界高度重视疫情防控，疫区国家也能得到更多支援，但另一方面，</span><span><b>世界其他国家大概率会对疫区实行旅行和贸易限制，形同实际意义上的经济制裁</b></span><span>。这对疫区经济是不可承受之重。过去十年WHO宣布过五起 纳入，最近一次是去年七月针对刚果(金)的埃博拉疫情，该疫情超过2500例感染。</span></p><p><span>6，回到我文首说的，新冠并不可怕，现在我们自上而下，应该开始全方位操心经济，行动越快越好。</span><b><span>乱世重典，现在小修小补已于事无补</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>我的建议是：</span></b></p><p><b><span>首先，动用所有官方力量与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01051\">国际资源</a>，绝对不能让WHO将新冠纳入公共卫生事件，绝对不能；</span></b></p><p><b><span>其次，捆住地方政府的手，缩减和砍削所有基建开支，将钱通过退税和补贴的方式，直接返还给企业与个人，以最大程度修复家庭和企业的资产负债表，增加民间投资与消费信心；</span></b></p><p><b><span>第三，才是大规模减税。税收返还是即期的，减税是未来，于当下，助力不大。当下是要输血救人。</span></b></p><p><b><span>第四，才是考虑增加财政赤字到3以上，让政府花钱</span></b><span>。没有前面的输血，老套路的政府花钱，极大可能吃力不讨好——企业太虚，根本无力承接。</span></p><p><b><span>7，再强调一遍：</span></b></p><p><b><span>经济是主战场！</span></b></p><p><b><span>有经济，才有未来！</span></b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“新冠”疫情不可怕！我们该全面操心经济了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“新冠”疫情不可怕！我们该全面操心经济了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-01-30 15:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/791a7ad4ff412aa090638a75f9ee16aa\" /></p><p><b><span>直接说重点：</span></b></p><p><span>1，只要地方官吏放下了所谓的面子与政绩，新冠就一定会控制住。时间问题。</span><b><span>所有可预判的问题都不可怕，包括新冠</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>2，现在开始，我们应该自上而下，全面操心经济。经济不可能一直停下去。企业，尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。</span><b><span>家庭的资产负债表再恶化，家庭也不会消失。但很多中小企业现金流量表与资产负债表一旦恶化超过一定时长，一口气缓不过来，这个企业就可能没有回头路了</span></b><span>。救它们，更需要争分夺秒；</span></p><p><span>3，2003年非典，四个季度GDP增速分别为11.1%、9.1%、10%和10%，非典主要影响了2季度GDP增速约1.5个百分点。全年看，受影响最大的第三产业增加值减慢0.8个百分点。当年第三产业占GDP比重为32%，也即非典大致影响当年GDP增速0.3—0.5个百分点，并不算大。</span><b><span>绝大多数人正是依据SARS的经验来判断新冠对经济的影响，但这会带来重大误判与误导；</span></b></p><p><span>4，</span><span><b>2003年，中国经济还是一个睡凉席都不感冒的二十岁小伙</b></span><span>。彼时GDP总量仅11.7万亿，2019年已是99万亿。而且，彼时最易受病毒冲击的三产规模不大，其增加值占GDP比重仅为32%，三分之一不到。但同样的数据，2019年已经达到54%，超过一半——仅按这个数据，</span><span><b>新冠就可以轻松拉低全年GDP一个点。</b></span></p><p><span>更关键的是，</span><span><b>2003年中国刚加入WTO不久</b></span><span>，正在全面享受融入全球分工与市场的红利——</span><span><b>这是中国经济史上唯一可以与1979年中美建交并改革开放相提并论的重大拐点性事件，同时中国自身经济也正处在重化工业化、城镇化和人口红利消费升级的自我强化上升阶段，内外的修复能力与上升动能都堪称充足。</b></span></p><p><span>但现如今的经济身体素质，早已今非昔比。具体数据我不展开了，在我过去的分析里很详尽；</span></p><p><span>5，</span><span><b>还有一个巨大的黑天鹅变量，多数人都还没有纳入考量模型</b></span><span>。世卫组织(WHO)将于近日召开紧急会议，以确定是否把中国新冠纳入“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件&quot; ——用普通话粗暴翻译，就是是否把中国纳入疫区，而考量的核心因素，就是病毒持续人传人的能力。事实上，柳叶刀确定的新冠病毒R值(平均每个病毒患者（携带者）要传染的人数)为2.90——3.1，远超非典1.77和1.85的R值。</span></p><p><span>纳入公共卫生事件，意味着如果没有大规模的应对行动，疫情将无法被妥善控制  。</span><b><span>这个纳入是一把双刃剑</span></b><span>，一方面有助于全世界高度重视疫情防控，疫区国家也能得到更多支援，但另一方面，</span><span><b>世界其他国家大概率会对疫区实行旅行和贸易限制，形同实际意义上的经济制裁</b></span><span>。这对疫区经济是不可承受之重。过去十年WHO宣布过五起 纳入，最近一次是去年七月针对刚果(金)的埃博拉疫情，该疫情超过2500例感染。</span></p><p><span>6，回到我文首说的，新冠并不可怕，现在我们自上而下，应该开始全方位操心经济，行动越快越好。</span><b><span>乱世重典，现在小修小补已于事无补</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>我的建议是：</span></b></p><p><b><span>首先，动用所有官方力量与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01051\">国际资源</a>，绝对不能让WHO将新冠纳入公共卫生事件，绝对不能；</span></b></p><p><b><span>其次，捆住地方政府的手，缩减和砍削所有基建开支，将钱通过退税和补贴的方式，直接返还给企业与个人，以最大程度修复家庭和企业的资产负债表，增加民间投资与消费信心；</span></b></p><p><b><span>第三，才是大规模减税。税收返还是即期的，减税是未来，于当下，助力不大。当下是要输血救人。</span></b></p><p><b><span>第四，才是考虑增加财政赤字到3以上，让政府花钱</span></b><span>。没有前面的输血，老套路的政府花钱，极大可能吃力不讨好——企业太虚，根本无力承接。</span></p><p><b><span>7，再强调一遍：</span></b></p><p><b><span>经济是主战场！</span></b></p><p><b><span>有经济，才有未来！</span></b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139503311","content_text":"直接说重点：1，只要地方官吏放下了所谓的面子与政绩，新冠就一定会控制住。时间问题。所有可预判的问题都不可怕，包括新冠。2，现在开始，我们应该自上而下，全面操心经济。经济不可能一直停下去。企业，尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。家庭的资产负债表再恶化，家庭也不会消失。但很多中小企业现金流量表与资产负债表一旦恶化超过一定时长，一口气缓不过来，这个企业就可能没有回头路了。救它们，更需要争分夺秒；3，2003年非典，四个季度GDP增速分别为11.1%、9.1%、10%和10%，非典主要影响了2季度GDP增速约1.5个百分点。全年看，受影响最大的第三产业增加值减慢0.8个百分点。当年第三产业占GDP比重为32%，也即非典大致影响当年GDP增速0.3—0.5个百分点，并不算大。绝大多数人正是依据SARS的经验来判断新冠对经济的影响，但这会带来重大误判与误导；4，2003年，中国经济还是一个睡凉席都不感冒的二十岁小伙。彼时GDP总量仅11.7万亿，2019年已是99万亿。而且，彼时最易受病毒冲击的三产规模不大，其增加值占GDP比重仅为32%，三分之一不到。但同样的数据，2019年已经达到54%，超过一半——仅按这个数据，新冠就可以轻松拉低全年GDP一个点。更关键的是，2003年中国刚加入WTO不久，正在全面享受融入全球分工与市场的红利——这是中国经济史上唯一可以与1979年中美建交并改革开放相提并论的重大拐点性事件，同时中国自身经济也正处在重化工业化、城镇化和人口红利消费升级的自我强化上升阶段，内外的修复能力与上升动能都堪称充足。但现如今的经济身体素质，早已今非昔比。具体数据我不展开了，在我过去的分析里很详尽；5，还有一个巨大的黑天鹅变量，多数人都还没有纳入考量模型。世卫组织(WHO)将于近日召开紧急会议，以确定是否把中国新冠纳入“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件\" ——用普通话粗暴翻译，就是是否把中国纳入疫区，而考量的核心因素，就是病毒持续人传人的能力。事实上，柳叶刀确定的新冠病毒R值(平均每个病毒患者（携带者）要传染的人数)为2.90——3.1，远超非典1.77和1.85的R值。纳入公共卫生事件，意味着如果没有大规模的应对行动，疫情将无法被妥善控制  。这个纳入是一把双刃剑，一方面有助于全世界高度重视疫情防控，疫区国家也能得到更多支援，但另一方面，世界其他国家大概率会对疫区实行旅行和贸易限制，形同实际意义上的经济制裁。这对疫区经济是不可承受之重。过去十年WHO宣布过五起 纳入，最近一次是去年七月针对刚果(金)的埃博拉疫情，该疫情超过2500例感染。6，回到我文首说的，新冠并不可怕，现在我们自上而下，应该开始全方位操心经济，行动越快越好。乱世重典，现在小修小补已于事无补。我的建议是：首先，动用所有官方力量与国际资源，绝对不能让WHO将新冠纳入公共卫生事件，绝对不能；其次，捆住地方政府的手，缩减和砍削所有基建开支，将钱通过退税和补贴的方式，直接返还给企业与个人，以最大程度修复家庭和企业的资产负债表，增加民间投资与消费信心；第三，才是大规模减税。税收返还是即期的，减税是未来，于当下，助力不大。当下是要输血救人。第四，才是考虑增加财政赤字到3以上，让政府花钱。没有前面的输血，老套路的政府花钱，极大可能吃力不讨好——企业太虚，根本无力承接。7，再强调一遍：经济是主战场！有经济，才有未来！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":931162022,"gmtCreate":1570612829266,"gmtModify":1704720986023,"author":{"id":"189961847139156","authorId":"189961847139156","name":"GE19","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1740cf8db45b82f79751f2738afcbc9c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"189961847139156","authorIdStr":"189961847139156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连(CNmain)$</a>&nbsp;突然暴涨？啥情况？","listText":"<a 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突然暴涨？啥情况？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/931162022","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499823291751850","authorId":"3499823291751850","name":"lkjcpu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3499823291751850","authorIdStr":"3499823291751850"},"content":"今天副总理到美国谈判去了。好好谈谈，美国佬生病了，和他们谈谈到底该怎么治","text":"今天副总理到美国谈判去了。好好谈谈，美国佬生病了，和他们谈谈到底该怎么治","html":"今天副总理到美国谈判去了。好好谈谈，美国佬生病了，和他们谈谈到底该怎么治"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":933155076,"gmtCreate":1569600495295,"gmtModify":1704719778928,"author":{"id":"189961847139156","authorId":"189961847139156","name":"GE19","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1740cf8db45b82f79751f2738afcbc9c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"189961847139156","authorIdStr":"189961847139156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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