孤魚的个人主页 - 老虎社区

孤魚

什么时候我的股票能赚钱！

IP属地：安徽

23关注

1粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2023-02-16

$纳斯达克100 Covered Call ETF-Global X(QYLD)$ 这个是派息基金吗

2023-03-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 诶，抄底抄了个寂寞

2021-12-19

$苹果(AAPL)$苹果上次拆股是什么时间

2021-09-10

$老虎证券(TIGR)$今天发飙了

2024-02-14

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 没办法做空他

2023-09-28

看样子是掀桌子收网了，应该大结局不远了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-19

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$会涨起来吗

01-08

看好AI

两天跌去12%，“AI大牛股”Palantir飙涨之路已到尽头？

2024-06-27

英伟达调整了

2024-05-03

$商汤-W(00020)$ 怎么了

2024-03-20

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ 好东西

2024-02-14

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 怎么做空他

2023-03-08

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$

2023-02-22

$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$ 看空

2023-02-13

$理想汽车(LI)$ 疯了吗

2019-04-16

$东方通信(600776)$妖股不妖了吧

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20:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"两天跌去12%，“AI大牛股”Palantir飙涨之路已到尽头？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154451613","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周三， $Palantir Technologies Inc.$ 美股盘前跌超2%，此前在过去两个交易日中合计下跌了12.4%，此前被誉为“AI大牛股”的Palantir，飙涨之路是否已走到尽头？对国防合同的严重倾斜，让 Palantir 极易受到国防开支变化和政策调整的影响。此外对 Palantir 政府合同结构的研究表明，许多协议都是按年度续约选项签订的，而非长期承诺。2024 年前九个月，Palantir 的前三大客户合计占营收的 17%，较 2023 年同期的 19% 略有下降。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>本周三（1月8日）， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> 美股盘前跌超2%，此前在过去两个交易日中合计下跌了12.4%，此前被誉为“AI大牛股”的Palantir，飙涨之路是否已走到尽头？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6ac0eff899cb9abf9ffec09c1462e06\" tg-width=\"1224\" tg-height=\"1277\"/></p><p>受人工智能热潮推动，Palantir的股价屡创历史新高，尽管当时该公司第三季度业绩表现强劲，但包括内部人士抛售、以散户为主的股东结构，以及高昂股价中隐含的假设，都预示着Palantir的前景并不乐观。</p><p>如今，该股的估值倍数愈发极端，增长势头也有降温迹象，形势或许已开始逆转。鉴于估值已达到即便最乐观的前景也难以支撑的水平，市场可能会开始对其进行重新估值。</p><h2 id=\"id_3248193031\">估值过高的风险</h2><p>Palantir 当前的市销率为 64.7 倍，与行业中位数 3.2 倍相比，溢价高达 1885%，此外公司的预期市盈率为 203 倍，远超行业中位数 25 倍达 708% ，这种估值差距尤其令人担忧。</p><p>研究机构Hataf Capital分析了过往市场周期中类似的高增长科技公司，发现Palantir当前的市销率甚至远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值估值。</p><p>作为对比，历史上最成功的科技公司之一 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> 在互联网泡沫鼎盛时期的市销率峰值也才 31 倍，Palantir 如今 64.7 倍的市销率是那个水平的两倍还多。</p><p>将微软 与Palantir作比较尤为贴切，因为它为估值脱离基本面后可能发生的情况提供了历史先例。尽管微软业务表现强劲，在随后 18 年里营收增长了 330%，但其股价却花了近 20 年才从互联网时代的峰值中恢复过来，Palantir 更为极端的估值指标或许意味着可能出现更剧烈的回调。</p><p>市场普遍预期，Palantir的每股收益增长将有所放缓，同比增长率从 2024 年 12 月的 51.7% 降至 2025 年 12 月的 25.17%。</p><p>此外，公司的市售率(EV/Sales)为 64.8 倍，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)为 469.9 倍，这实质上意味着要用当前数十年的收益才能支撑目前的估值。即便看预期数据，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA) 162.3 倍相较于行业中位数 21.4 倍也依然高得离谱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ca074afb5de9e161526b929fa6feab2\" alt=\"PLTR Valuation Metric\" title=\"PLTR Valuation Metric\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>PLTR Valuation Metric</span></p><p>这些估值指标之所以格外不稳定，是因为它们所处的环境是利率预计将趋于平稳，由于预计 2025 年降息次数减少，市场将继续打压这些高估值成长股，这些因素叠加，造成估值倍数大幅压缩的重大风险，可能导致高价入场的投资者遭受损失。</p><h2 id=\"id_3384961500\" style=\"text-align: start;\">政府合同依赖风险</h2><p>Hataf Capital指出，Palantir 的商业模式存在重大缺陷，源于公司严重依赖政府合同以及客户群体集中。审视公司的营收结构和合同条款时，这种依赖程度就显得尤为令人担忧。</p><p>2024 年前九个月，政府合同约占公司总营收的 56%，总计 1.11 亿美元。这种对政府部门的高度依赖，使得公司营收稳定性岌岌可危。</p><p>来自 USAspending.gov 的历史数据显示，仅国防部就累计占所有合同授予金额的约 52%，近期这一比例更是升至 70% - 80%。对国防合同的严重倾斜，让 Palantir 极易受到国防开支变化和政策调整的影响。</p><p>更值得关注的是 Palantir 政府合同的结构，这些协议存在重大隐患——大多包含 “方便终止” 条款，允许政府客户提前三到六个月通知即可终止合同，这给原本看似稳定的营收基础带来了极大的不确定性。</p><p>此外对 Palantir 政府合同结构的研究表明，许多协议都是按年度续约选项签订的，而非长期承诺。美国联邦政府被禁止提前一年以上行使合同续约选项。这就产生了续约不通过的经常性风险，可能对营收预期产生重大影响。</p><p>政治层面又增添了一层不确定性。鉴于 Palantir 深度参与国防和安全项目，政府换届后的优先事项调整或更广泛的地缘政治变化，都可能对合同续约和新业务获取产生重大影响。</p><p>众所周知，特朗普领导的美国政府已经设立一个新机构 —— 政府效率部（D.O.G.E.），以削减政府开支，这些削减措施可能对那些合同续约产生重大影响。</p><p>公司对少数大客户的依赖进一步加剧了客户集中风险。2024 年前九个月，Palantir 的前三大客户合计占营收的 17%，较 2023 年同期的 19% 略有下降。</p><p>虽然这种小幅分散是个积极信号，但集中度仍远高于市场通常认为的对这种规模和估值公司而言健康的水平。</p><p>因此，虽然 Palantir 展现出了令人瞩目的技术能力和增长态势，但Hataf Capital认为，当前的估值已完全脱离基本面现实，投资者在当前价位应谨慎考虑对 PLTR 的持仓。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>两天跌去12%，“AI大牛股”Palantir飙涨之路已到尽头？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n两天跌去12%，“AI大牛股”Palantir飙涨之路已到尽头？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-01-08 20:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>本周三（1月8日）， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> 美股盘前跌超2%，此前在过去两个交易日中合计下跌了12.4%，此前被誉为“AI大牛股”的Palantir，飙涨之路是否已走到尽头？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6ac0eff899cb9abf9ffec09c1462e06\" tg-width=\"1224\" tg-height=\"1277\"/></p><p>受人工智能热潮推动，Palantir的股价屡创历史新高，尽管当时该公司第三季度业绩表现强劲，但包括内部人士抛售、以散户为主的股东结构，以及高昂股价中隐含的假设，都预示着Palantir的前景并不乐观。</p><p>如今，该股的估值倍数愈发极端，增长势头也有降温迹象，形势或许已开始逆转。鉴于估值已达到即便最乐观的前景也难以支撑的水平，市场可能会开始对其进行重新估值。</p><h2 id=\"id_3248193031\">估值过高的风险</h2><p>Palantir 当前的市销率为 64.7 倍，与行业中位数 3.2 倍相比，溢价高达 1885%，此外公司的预期市盈率为 203 倍，远超行业中位数 25 倍达 708% ，这种估值差距尤其令人担忧。</p><p>研究机构Hataf Capital分析了过往市场周期中类似的高增长科技公司，发现Palantir当前的市销率甚至远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值估值。</p><p>作为对比，历史上最成功的科技公司之一 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> 在互联网泡沫鼎盛时期的市销率峰值也才 31 倍，Palantir 如今 64.7 倍的市销率是那个水平的两倍还多。</p><p>将微软 与Palantir作比较尤为贴切，因为它为估值脱离基本面后可能发生的情况提供了历史先例。尽管微软业务表现强劲，在随后 18 年里营收增长了 330%，但其股价却花了近 20 年才从互联网时代的峰值中恢复过来，Palantir 更为极端的估值指标或许意味着可能出现更剧烈的回调。</p><p>市场普遍预期，Palantir的每股收益增长将有所放缓，同比增长率从 2024 年 12 月的 51.7% 降至 2025 年 12 月的 25.17%。</p><p>此外，公司的市售率(EV/Sales)为 64.8 倍，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)为 469.9 倍，这实质上意味着要用当前数十年的收益才能支撑目前的估值。即便看预期数据，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA) 162.3 倍相较于行业中位数 21.4 倍也依然高得离谱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ca074afb5de9e161526b929fa6feab2\" alt=\"PLTR Valuation Metric\" title=\"PLTR Valuation Metric\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>PLTR Valuation Metric</span></p><p>这些估值指标之所以格外不稳定，是因为它们所处的环境是利率预计将趋于平稳，由于预计 2025 年降息次数减少，市场将继续打压这些高估值成长股，这些因素叠加，造成估值倍数大幅压缩的重大风险，可能导致高价入场的投资者遭受损失。</p><h2 id=\"id_3384961500\" style=\"text-align: start;\">政府合同依赖风险</h2><p>Hataf Capital指出，Palantir 的商业模式存在重大缺陷，源于公司严重依赖政府合同以及客户群体集中。审视公司的营收结构和合同条款时，这种依赖程度就显得尤为令人担忧。</p><p>2024 年前九个月，政府合同约占公司总营收的 56%，总计 1.11 亿美元。这种对政府部门的高度依赖，使得公司营收稳定性岌岌可危。</p><p>来自 USAspending.gov 的历史数据显示，仅国防部就累计占所有合同授予金额的约 52%，近期这一比例更是升至 70% - 80%。对国防合同的严重倾斜，让 Palantir 极易受到国防开支变化和政策调整的影响。</p><p>更值得关注的是 Palantir 政府合同的结构，这些协议存在重大隐患——大多包含 “方便终止” 条款，允许政府客户提前三到六个月通知即可终止合同，这给原本看似稳定的营收基础带来了极大的不确定性。</p><p>此外对 Palantir 政府合同结构的研究表明，许多协议都是按年度续约选项签订的，而非长期承诺。美国联邦政府被禁止提前一年以上行使合同续约选项。这就产生了续约不通过的经常性风险，可能对营收预期产生重大影响。</p><p>政治层面又增添了一层不确定性。鉴于 Palantir 深度参与国防和安全项目，政府换届后的优先事项调整或更广泛的地缘政治变化，都可能对合同续约和新业务获取产生重大影响。</p><p>众所周知，特朗普领导的美国政府已经设立一个新机构 —— 政府效率部（D.O.G.E.），以削减政府开支，这些削减措施可能对那些合同续约产生重大影响。</p><p>公司对少数大客户的依赖进一步加剧了客户集中风险。2024 年前九个月，Palantir 的前三大客户合计占营收的 17%，较 2023 年同期的 19% 略有下降。</p><p>虽然这种小幅分散是个积极信号，但集中度仍远高于市场通常认为的对这种规模和估值公司而言健康的水平。</p><p>因此，虽然 Palantir 展现出了令人瞩目的技术能力和增长态势，但Hataf Capital认为，当前的估值已完全脱离基本面现实，投资者在当前价位应谨慎考虑对 PLTR 的持仓。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1413f528850affc54e937999addc85fd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154451613","content_text":"本周三（1月8日）， Palantir Technologies Inc. 美股盘前跌超2%，此前在过去两个交易日中合计下跌了12.4%，此前被誉为“AI大牛股”的Palantir，飙涨之路是否已走到尽头？受人工智能热潮推动，Palantir的股价屡创历史新高，尽管当时该公司第三季度业绩表现强劲，但包括内部人士抛售、以散户为主的股东结构，以及高昂股价中隐含的假设，都预示着Palantir的前景并不乐观。如今，该股的估值倍数愈发极端，增长势头也有降温迹象，形势或许已开始逆转。鉴于估值已达到即便最乐观的前景也难以支撑的水平，市场可能会开始对其进行重新估值。估值过高的风险Palantir 当前的市销率为 64.7 倍，与行业中位数 3.2 倍相比，溢价高达 1885%，此外公司的预期市盈率为 203 倍，远超行业中位数 25 倍达 708% ，这种估值差距尤其令人担忧。研究机构Hataf Capital分析了过往市场周期中类似的高增长科技公司，发现Palantir当前的市销率甚至远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值估值。作为对比，历史上最成功的科技公司之一 微软 在互联网泡沫鼎盛时期的市销率峰值也才 31 倍，Palantir 如今 64.7 倍的市销率是那个水平的两倍还多。将微软 与Palantir作比较尤为贴切，因为它为估值脱离基本面后可能发生的情况提供了历史先例。尽管微软业务表现强劲，在随后 18 年里营收增长了 330%，但其股价却花了近 20 年才从互联网时代的峰值中恢复过来，Palantir 更为极端的估值指标或许意味着可能出现更剧烈的回调。市场普遍预期，Palantir的每股收益增长将有所放缓，同比增长率从 2024 年 12 月的 51.7% 降至 2025 年 12 月的 25.17%。此外，公司的市售率(EV/Sales)为 64.8 倍，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)为 469.9 倍，这实质上意味着要用当前数十年的收益才能支撑目前的估值。即便看预期数据，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA) 162.3 倍相较于行业中位数 21.4 倍也依然高得离谱。PLTR Valuation Metric这些估值指标之所以格外不稳定，是因为它们所处的环境是利率预计将趋于平稳，由于预计 2025 年降息次数减少，市场将继续打压这些高估值成长股，这些因素叠加，造成估值倍数大幅压缩的重大风险，可能导致高价入场的投资者遭受损失。政府合同依赖风险Hataf Capital指出，Palantir 的商业模式存在重大缺陷，源于公司严重依赖政府合同以及客户群体集中。审视公司的营收结构和合同条款时，这种依赖程度就显得尤为令人担忧。2024 年前九个月，政府合同约占公司总营收的 56%，总计 1.11 亿美元。这种对政府部门的高度依赖，使得公司营收稳定性岌岌可危。来自 USAspending.gov 的历史数据显示，仅国防部就累计占所有合同授予金额的约 52%，近期这一比例更是升至 70% - 80%。对国防合同的严重倾斜，让 Palantir 极易受到国防开支变化和政策调整的影响。更值得关注的是 Palantir 政府合同的结构，这些协议存在重大隐患——大多包含 “方便终止” 条款，允许政府客户提前三到六个月通知即可终止合同，这给原本看似稳定的营收基础带来了极大的不确定性。此外对 Palantir 政府合同结构的研究表明，许多协议都是按年度续约选项签订的，而非长期承诺。美国联邦政府被禁止提前一年以上行使合同续约选项。这就产生了续约不通过的经常性风险，可能对营收预期产生重大影响。政治层面又增添了一层不确定性。鉴于 Palantir 深度参与国防和安全项目，政府换届后的优先事项调整或更广泛的地缘政治变化，都可能对合同续约和新业务获取产生重大影响。众所周知，特朗普领导的美国政府已经设立一个新机构 —— 政府效率部（D.O.G.E.），以削减政府开支，这些削减措施可能对那些合同续约产生重大影响。公司对少数大客户的依赖进一步加剧了客户集中风险。2024 年前九个月，Palantir 的前三大客户合计占营收的 17%，较 2023 年同期的 19% 略有下降。虽然这种小幅分散是个积极信号，但集中度仍远高于市场通常认为的对这种规模和估值公司而言健康的水平。因此，虽然 Palantir 展现出了令人瞩目的技术能力和增长态势，但Hataf Capital认为，当前的估值已完全脱离基本面现实，投资者在当前价位应谨慎考虑对 PLTR 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20:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"两天跌去12%，“AI大牛股”Palantir飙涨之路已到尽头？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154451613","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周三， $Palantir Technologies Inc.$ 美股盘前跌超2%，此前在过去两个交易日中合计下跌了12.4%，此前被誉为“AI大牛股”的Palantir，飙涨之路是否已走到尽头？对国防合同的严重倾斜，让 Palantir 极易受到国防开支变化和政策调整的影响。此外对 Palantir 政府合同结构的研究表明，许多协议都是按年度续约选项签订的，而非长期承诺。2024 年前九个月，Palantir 的前三大客户合计占营收的 17%，较 2023 年同期的 19% 略有下降。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>本周三（1月8日）， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> 美股盘前跌超2%，此前在过去两个交易日中合计下跌了12.4%，此前被誉为“AI大牛股”的Palantir，飙涨之路是否已走到尽头？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6ac0eff899cb9abf9ffec09c1462e06\" tg-width=\"1224\" tg-height=\"1277\"/></p><p>受人工智能热潮推动，Palantir的股价屡创历史新高，尽管当时该公司第三季度业绩表现强劲，但包括内部人士抛售、以散户为主的股东结构，以及高昂股价中隐含的假设，都预示着Palantir的前景并不乐观。</p><p>如今，该股的估值倍数愈发极端，增长势头也有降温迹象，形势或许已开始逆转。鉴于估值已达到即便最乐观的前景也难以支撑的水平，市场可能会开始对其进行重新估值。</p><h2 id=\"id_3248193031\">估值过高的风险</h2><p>Palantir 当前的市销率为 64.7 倍，与行业中位数 3.2 倍相比，溢价高达 1885%，此外公司的预期市盈率为 203 倍，远超行业中位数 25 倍达 708% ，这种估值差距尤其令人担忧。</p><p>研究机构Hataf Capital分析了过往市场周期中类似的高增长科技公司，发现Palantir当前的市销率甚至远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值估值。</p><p>作为对比，历史上最成功的科技公司之一 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> 在互联网泡沫鼎盛时期的市销率峰值也才 31 倍，Palantir 如今 64.7 倍的市销率是那个水平的两倍还多。</p><p>将微软 与Palantir作比较尤为贴切，因为它为估值脱离基本面后可能发生的情况提供了历史先例。尽管微软业务表现强劲，在随后 18 年里营收增长了 330%，但其股价却花了近 20 年才从互联网时代的峰值中恢复过来，Palantir 更为极端的估值指标或许意味着可能出现更剧烈的回调。</p><p>市场普遍预期，Palantir的每股收益增长将有所放缓，同比增长率从 2024 年 12 月的 51.7% 降至 2025 年 12 月的 25.17%。</p><p>此外，公司的市售率(EV/Sales)为 64.8 倍，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)为 469.9 倍，这实质上意味着要用当前数十年的收益才能支撑目前的估值。即便看预期数据，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA) 162.3 倍相较于行业中位数 21.4 倍也依然高得离谱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ca074afb5de9e161526b929fa6feab2\" alt=\"PLTR Valuation Metric\" title=\"PLTR Valuation Metric\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>PLTR Valuation Metric</span></p><p>这些估值指标之所以格外不稳定，是因为它们所处的环境是利率预计将趋于平稳，由于预计 2025 年降息次数减少，市场将继续打压这些高估值成长股，这些因素叠加，造成估值倍数大幅压缩的重大风险，可能导致高价入场的投资者遭受损失。</p><h2 id=\"id_3384961500\" style=\"text-align: start;\">政府合同依赖风险</h2><p>Hataf Capital指出，Palantir 的商业模式存在重大缺陷，源于公司严重依赖政府合同以及客户群体集中。审视公司的营收结构和合同条款时，这种依赖程度就显得尤为令人担忧。</p><p>2024 年前九个月，政府合同约占公司总营收的 56%，总计 1.11 亿美元。这种对政府部门的高度依赖，使得公司营收稳定性岌岌可危。</p><p>来自 USAspending.gov 的历史数据显示，仅国防部就累计占所有合同授予金额的约 52%，近期这一比例更是升至 70% - 80%。对国防合同的严重倾斜，让 Palantir 极易受到国防开支变化和政策调整的影响。</p><p>更值得关注的是 Palantir 政府合同的结构，这些协议存在重大隐患——大多包含 “方便终止” 条款，允许政府客户提前三到六个月通知即可终止合同，这给原本看似稳定的营收基础带来了极大的不确定性。</p><p>此外对 Palantir 政府合同结构的研究表明，许多协议都是按年度续约选项签订的，而非长期承诺。美国联邦政府被禁止提前一年以上行使合同续约选项。这就产生了续约不通过的经常性风险，可能对营收预期产生重大影响。</p><p>政治层面又增添了一层不确定性。鉴于 Palantir 深度参与国防和安全项目，政府换届后的优先事项调整或更广泛的地缘政治变化，都可能对合同续约和新业务获取产生重大影响。</p><p>众所周知，特朗普领导的美国政府已经设立一个新机构 —— 政府效率部（D.O.G.E.），以削减政府开支，这些削减措施可能对那些合同续约产生重大影响。</p><p>公司对少数大客户的依赖进一步加剧了客户集中风险。2024 年前九个月，Palantir 的前三大客户合计占营收的 17%，较 2023 年同期的 19% 略有下降。</p><p>虽然这种小幅分散是个积极信号，但集中度仍远高于市场通常认为的对这种规模和估值公司而言健康的水平。</p><p>因此，虽然 Palantir 展现出了令人瞩目的技术能力和增长态势，但Hataf Capital认为，当前的估值已完全脱离基本面现实，投资者在当前价位应谨慎考虑对 PLTR 的持仓。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>两天跌去12%，“AI大牛股”Palantir飙涨之路已到尽头？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n两天跌去12%，“AI大牛股”Palantir飙涨之路已到尽头？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-01-08 20:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>本周三（1月8日）， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> 美股盘前跌超2%，此前在过去两个交易日中合计下跌了12.4%，此前被誉为“AI大牛股”的Palantir，飙涨之路是否已走到尽头？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6ac0eff899cb9abf9ffec09c1462e06\" tg-width=\"1224\" tg-height=\"1277\"/></p><p>受人工智能热潮推动，Palantir的股价屡创历史新高，尽管当时该公司第三季度业绩表现强劲，但包括内部人士抛售、以散户为主的股东结构，以及高昂股价中隐含的假设，都预示着Palantir的前景并不乐观。</p><p>如今，该股的估值倍数愈发极端，增长势头也有降温迹象，形势或许已开始逆转。鉴于估值已达到即便最乐观的前景也难以支撑的水平，市场可能会开始对其进行重新估值。</p><h2 id=\"id_3248193031\">估值过高的风险</h2><p>Palantir 当前的市销率为 64.7 倍，与行业中位数 3.2 倍相比，溢价高达 1885%，此外公司的预期市盈率为 203 倍，远超行业中位数 25 倍达 708% ，这种估值差距尤其令人担忧。</p><p>研究机构Hataf Capital分析了过往市场周期中类似的高增长科技公司，发现Palantir当前的市销率甚至远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值估值。</p><p>作为对比，历史上最成功的科技公司之一 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> 在互联网泡沫鼎盛时期的市销率峰值也才 31 倍，Palantir 如今 64.7 倍的市销率是那个水平的两倍还多。</p><p>将微软 与Palantir作比较尤为贴切，因为它为估值脱离基本面后可能发生的情况提供了历史先例。尽管微软业务表现强劲，在随后 18 年里营收增长了 330%，但其股价却花了近 20 年才从互联网时代的峰值中恢复过来，Palantir 更为极端的估值指标或许意味着可能出现更剧烈的回调。</p><p>市场普遍预期，Palantir的每股收益增长将有所放缓，同比增长率从 2024 年 12 月的 51.7% 降至 2025 年 12 月的 25.17%。</p><p>此外，公司的市售率(EV/Sales)为 64.8 倍，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)为 469.9 倍，这实质上意味着要用当前数十年的收益才能支撑目前的估值。即便看预期数据，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA) 162.3 倍相较于行业中位数 21.4 倍也依然高得离谱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ca074afb5de9e161526b929fa6feab2\" alt=\"PLTR Valuation Metric\" title=\"PLTR Valuation Metric\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>PLTR Valuation Metric</span></p><p>这些估值指标之所以格外不稳定，是因为它们所处的环境是利率预计将趋于平稳，由于预计 2025 年降息次数减少，市场将继续打压这些高估值成长股，这些因素叠加，造成估值倍数大幅压缩的重大风险，可能导致高价入场的投资者遭受损失。</p><h2 id=\"id_3384961500\" style=\"text-align: start;\">政府合同依赖风险</h2><p>Hataf Capital指出，Palantir 的商业模式存在重大缺陷，源于公司严重依赖政府合同以及客户群体集中。审视公司的营收结构和合同条款时，这种依赖程度就显得尤为令人担忧。</p><p>2024 年前九个月，政府合同约占公司总营收的 56%，总计 1.11 亿美元。这种对政府部门的高度依赖，使得公司营收稳定性岌岌可危。</p><p>来自 USAspending.gov 的历史数据显示，仅国防部就累计占所有合同授予金额的约 52%，近期这一比例更是升至 70% - 80%。对国防合同的严重倾斜，让 Palantir 极易受到国防开支变化和政策调整的影响。</p><p>更值得关注的是 Palantir 政府合同的结构，这些协议存在重大隐患——大多包含 “方便终止” 条款，允许政府客户提前三到六个月通知即可终止合同，这给原本看似稳定的营收基础带来了极大的不确定性。</p><p>此外对 Palantir 政府合同结构的研究表明，许多协议都是按年度续约选项签订的，而非长期承诺。美国联邦政府被禁止提前一年以上行使合同续约选项。这就产生了续约不通过的经常性风险，可能对营收预期产生重大影响。</p><p>政治层面又增添了一层不确定性。鉴于 Palantir 深度参与国防和安全项目，政府换届后的优先事项调整或更广泛的地缘政治变化，都可能对合同续约和新业务获取产生重大影响。</p><p>众所周知，特朗普领导的美国政府已经设立一个新机构 —— 政府效率部（D.O.G.E.），以削减政府开支，这些削减措施可能对那些合同续约产生重大影响。</p><p>公司对少数大客户的依赖进一步加剧了客户集中风险。2024 年前九个月，Palantir 的前三大客户合计占营收的 17%，较 2023 年同期的 19% 略有下降。</p><p>虽然这种小幅分散是个积极信号，但集中度仍远高于市场通常认为的对这种规模和估值公司而言健康的水平。</p><p>因此，虽然 Palantir 展现出了令人瞩目的技术能力和增长态势，但Hataf Capital认为，当前的估值已完全脱离基本面现实，投资者在当前价位应谨慎考虑对 PLTR 的持仓。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1413f528850affc54e937999addc85fd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154451613","content_text":"本周三（1月8日）， Palantir Technologies Inc. 美股盘前跌超2%，此前在过去两个交易日中合计下跌了12.4%，此前被誉为“AI大牛股”的Palantir，飙涨之路是否已走到尽头？受人工智能热潮推动，Palantir的股价屡创历史新高，尽管当时该公司第三季度业绩表现强劲，但包括内部人士抛售、以散户为主的股东结构，以及高昂股价中隐含的假设，都预示着Palantir的前景并不乐观。如今，该股的估值倍数愈发极端，增长势头也有降温迹象，形势或许已开始逆转。鉴于估值已达到即便最乐观的前景也难以支撑的水平，市场可能会开始对其进行重新估值。估值过高的风险Palantir 当前的市销率为 64.7 倍，与行业中位数 3.2 倍相比，溢价高达 1885%，此外公司的预期市盈率为 203 倍，远超行业中位数 25 倍达 708% ，这种估值差距尤其令人担忧。研究机构Hataf Capital分析了过往市场周期中类似的高增长科技公司，发现Palantir当前的市销率甚至远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值估值。作为对比，历史上最成功的科技公司之一 微软 在互联网泡沫鼎盛时期的市销率峰值也才 31 倍，Palantir 如今 64.7 倍的市销率是那个水平的两倍还多。将微软 与Palantir作比较尤为贴切，因为它为估值脱离基本面后可能发生的情况提供了历史先例。尽管微软业务表现强劲，在随后 18 年里营收增长了 330%，但其股价却花了近 20 年才从互联网时代的峰值中恢复过来，Palantir 更为极端的估值指标或许意味着可能出现更剧烈的回调。市场普遍预期，Palantir的每股收益增长将有所放缓，同比增长率从 2024 年 12 月的 51.7% 降至 2025 年 12 月的 25.17%。此外，公司的市售率(EV/Sales)为 64.8 倍，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)为 469.9 倍，这实质上意味着要用当前数十年的收益才能支撑目前的估值。即便看预期数据，企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA) 162.3 倍相较于行业中位数 21.4 倍也依然高得离谱。PLTR Valuation Metric这些估值指标之所以格外不稳定，是因为它们所处的环境是利率预计将趋于平稳，由于预计 2025 年降息次数减少，市场将继续打压这些高估值成长股，这些因素叠加，造成估值倍数大幅压缩的重大风险，可能导致高价入场的投资者遭受损失。政府合同依赖风险Hataf Capital指出，Palantir 的商业模式存在重大缺陷，源于公司严重依赖政府合同以及客户群体集中。审视公司的营收结构和合同条款时，这种依赖程度就显得尤为令人担忧。2024 年前九个月，政府合同约占公司总营收的 56%，总计 1.11 亿美元。这种对政府部门的高度依赖，使得公司营收稳定性岌岌可危。来自 USAspending.gov 的历史数据显示，仅国防部就累计占所有合同授予金额的约 52%，近期这一比例更是升至 70% - 80%。对国防合同的严重倾斜，让 Palantir 极易受到国防开支变化和政策调整的影响。更值得关注的是 Palantir 政府合同的结构，这些协议存在重大隐患——大多包含 “方便终止” 条款，允许政府客户提前三到六个月通知即可终止合同，这给原本看似稳定的营收基础带来了极大的不确定性。此外对 Palantir 政府合同结构的研究表明，许多协议都是按年度续约选项签订的，而非长期承诺。美国联邦政府被禁止提前一年以上行使合同续约选项。这就产生了续约不通过的经常性风险，可能对营收预期产生重大影响。政治层面又增添了一层不确定性。鉴于 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