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万法隐世仙君
09-19
我平仓了
$IWM 20250919 243.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
万法隐世仙君
09-19
我平仓了
$IWM 20250919 243.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
万法隐世仙君
09-18
我平仓了
$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
万法隐世仙君
09-18
我平仓了
$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
万法隐世仙君
09-18
我平仓了
$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
万法隐世仙君
09-18
我平仓了
$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
万法隐世仙君
09-17
我平仓了
$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
万法隐世仙君
09-17
我开仓了
$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$
,如果追求积极上涨: ·入场参考:若股价能稳定在$240以 上并伴随成交量放大,可以考虑轻仓 跟进。 ·目标位:短期可看向近期高点 $241.22附近,若能有效突 破,则可能进一步挑战52周高点 $260.10。 ·止损参考:可设置在$235下方(日 内支撑或MA5附近)。
万法隐世仙君
09-17
我开仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,欧盟反垄断协议:微软与欧盟委员会就 Teams反垄断纠纷达成协议,这消 除了一个潜在的不确定性风险,对股价 影响偏正面。
万法隐世仙君
09-17
我平仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,AI与云业务进展:微软在AI领域的应 用(如Copilot、Azure AI服务)和云 业务的持续增长是长期的坚定基石 。任何关于这些业务的积极消息都 可能提振市场信心。
万法隐世仙君
09-17
我开仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,美联储政策决议:市场普遍关注美联储的利率决议。若释放降息等宽松信号,可能提振科技股整体情绪,利好微软;若维持鹰派,则可能形成压力。
万法隐世仙君
09-17
我开仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,若股价直接冲击550美元:在当前 技术面和市场情绪下,短期内实现这 一目标的概率较低。除非市场出现重 大利好(如美联储超预期鸽派、微软 发布爆炸性利好公告),并伴随成交 量急剧放大,才可能推动股价快速向 550美元冲击。
万法隐世仙君
09-17
我平仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,若股价回调至支撑位附近: ·在$510-$512.57区域企稳时,可 考虑轻仓试多,博取反弹。 ·若回调至$505**或**$494.60 等更强支撑位并出现企稳迹象,或 许是相对稳健的逢低布局机会。
万法隐世仙君
09-17
我平仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,合作风险:微软与OpenAl的合作关系 可能出现变化(如OpenAl引入其他投 资方),虽然微软在通过自研降低依 赖,但仍需关注。
万法隐世仙君
09-17
我平仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,行业竞争与监管:AI领域竞争日趋激 烈,谷歌、Meta等公司不断推出强大模 型。同时,全球范围内对AI的监管政 策可能趋严,虽然微软已提前布局合规 框架,但行业整体环境变化仍可能带来 挑战。
万法隐世仙君
09-17
我平仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,宏观经济风险:美联储货币政策的不确 定性(如高利率环境维持更久)可能对 科技股估值持续构成压力。
万法隐世仙君
09-16
我开仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,基本面催化剂:微软云业务(Azure) 收入增长27%及AI整合(如 Anthropic模型接入Office 365) 是长期利好。密切关注美联储9月利率 决议(预计潜在降息可能利好科技股)
万法隐世仙君
09-16
我开仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,稳健的财务与股东回报:微软宣布将 季度股息提高10%至每股0.91美元 ,这体现了公司良好的现金流状况 和回馈股东的承诺,增强了长期投资 者的信心。
万法隐世仙君
09-16
我平仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
,Azure云服务与AI商业化潜力:虽然 Azure增速有波动,但其未来订单量 显示了强劲的增长潜力。AI相关 服务(如Azure AI、 Microsoft 365 Copilot)已带来可观的营收(估算 分别突破140亿美元和近25亿美元) ,且企业级AI应用仍处于早期阶 段,未来有望持续成为业绩驱动力。
万法隐世仙君
09-16
我平仓了
$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$
, AI战略深入推进与自研大模型:微软 正在大力投资训练自研AI大模型(如 MAl-1),计划将计算集群规模扩大至 当前的六到十倍,以媲美Meta、谷歌 等公司的前沿模型。这减少了微软 对OpenAl的单一依赖,掌握了AI发 展的核心技术主动权,为长期竞争。力 奠定基础
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/IWM 20250919 243.0 CALL\">$IWM 20250919 243.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/IWM 20250919 243.0 CALL\">$IWM 20250919 243.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我平仓了$IWM 20250919 243.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/480013564113128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":480013319028792,"gmtCreate":1758214592300,"gmtModify":1758214595370,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/IWM 20250919 243.0 CALL\">$IWM 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我平仓了$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479812075561080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479811971822296,"gmtCreate":1758165523267,"gmtModify":1758165525954,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250919 240.0 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</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我平仓了$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479812334137416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479811189367080,"gmtCreate":1758165510401,"gmtModify":1758165513338,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我平仓了$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479811189367080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479610895016776,"gmtCreate":1758116866790,"gmtModify":1758116870030,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我平仓了$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479610895016776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479380440941360,"gmtCreate":1758071171527,"gmtModify":1758116312150,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ </a>,如果追求积极上涨: ·入场参考:若股价能稳定在$240以 上并伴随成交量放大,可以考虑轻仓 跟进。 ·目标位:短期可看向近期高点 $241.22附近,若能有效突 破,则可能进一步挑战52周高点 $260.10。 ·止损参考:可设置在$235下方(日 内支撑或MA5附近)。","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ </a>,如果追求积极上涨: ·入场参考:若股价能稳定在$240以 上并伴随成交量放大,可以考虑轻仓 跟进。 ·目标位:短期可看向近期高点 $241.22附近,若能有效突 破,则可能进一步挑战52周高点 $260.10。 ·止损参考:可设置在$235下方(日 内支撑或MA5附近)。","text":"我开仓了$AAPL 20250919 240.0 CALL$ ,如果追求积极上涨: ·入场参考:若股价能稳定在$240以 上并伴随成交量放大,可以考虑轻仓 跟进。 ·目标位:短期可看向近期高点 $241.22附近,若能有效突 破,则可能进一步挑战52周高点 $260.10。 ·止损参考:可设置在$235下方(日 内支撑或MA5附近)。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479380440941360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479378725692216,"gmtCreate":1758071002162,"gmtModify":1758073619231,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,欧盟反垄断协议:微软与欧盟委员会就 Teams反垄断纠纷达成协议,这消 除了一个潜在的不确定性风险,对股价 影响偏正面。","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,欧盟反垄断协议:微软与欧盟委员会就 Teams反垄断纠纷达成协议,这消 除了一个潜在的不确定性风险,对股价 影响偏正面。","text":"我开仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,欧盟反垄断协议:微软与欧盟委员会就 Teams反垄断纠纷达成协议,这消 除了一个潜在的不确定性风险,对股价 影响偏正面。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479378725692216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479379518619696,"gmtCreate":1758070977970,"gmtModify":1758073619046,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,AI与云业务进展:微软在AI领域的应 用(如Copilot、Azure AI服务)和云 业务的持续增长是长期的坚定基石 。任何关于这些业务的积极消息都 可能提振市场信心。","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,AI与云业务进展:微软在AI领域的应 用(如Copilot、Azure AI服务)和云 业务的持续增长是长期的坚定基石 。任何关于这些业务的积极消息都 可能提振市场信心。","text":"我平仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,AI与云业务进展:微软在AI领域的应 用(如Copilot、Azure AI服务)和云 业务的持续增长是长期的坚定基石 。任何关于这些业务的积极消息都 可能提振市场信心。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479379518619696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479378662256968,"gmtCreate":1758070940722,"gmtModify":1758073618568,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,美联储政策决议:市场普遍关注美联储的利率决议。若释放降息等宽松信号,可能提振科技股整体情绪,利好微软;若维持鹰派,则可能形成压力。","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,美联储政策决议:市场普遍关注美联储的利率决议。若释放降息等宽松信号,可能提振科技股整体情绪,利好微软;若维持鹰派,则可能形成压力。","text":"我开仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,美联储政策决议:市场普遍关注美联储的利率决议。若释放降息等宽松信号,可能提振科技股整体情绪,利好微软;若维持鹰派,则可能形成压力。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479378662256968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479377628337016,"gmtCreate":1758070886808,"gmtModify":1758073618297,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,若股价直接冲击550美元:在当前 技术面和市场情绪下,短期内实现这 一目标的概率较低。除非市场出现重 大利好(如美联储超预期鸽派、微软 发布爆炸性利好公告),并伴随成交 量急剧放大,才可能推动股价快速向 550美元冲击。","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,若股价直接冲击550美元:在当前 技术面和市场情绪下,短期内实现这 一目标的概率较低。除非市场出现重 大利好(如美联储超预期鸽派、微软 发布爆炸性利好公告),并伴随成交 量急剧放大,才可能推动股价快速向 550美元冲击。","text":"我开仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,若股价直接冲击550美元:在当前 技术面和市场情绪下,短期内实现这 一目标的概率较低。除非市场出现重 大利好(如美联储超预期鸽派、微软 发布爆炸性利好公告),并伴随成交 量急剧放大,才可能推动股价快速向 550美元冲击。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479377628337016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479376988225536,"gmtCreate":1758070869088,"gmtModify":1758073618493,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,若股价回调至支撑位附近: ·在$510-$512.57区域企稳时,可 考虑轻仓试多,博取反弹。 ·若回调至$505**或**$494.60 等更强支撑位并出现企稳迹象,或 许是相对稳健的逢低布局机会。","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,若股价回调至支撑位附近: ·在$510-$512.57区域企稳时,可 考虑轻仓试多,博取反弹。 ·若回调至$505**或**$494.60 等更强支撑位并出现企稳迹象,或 许是相对稳健的逢低布局机会。","text":"我平仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,若股价回调至支撑位附近: ·在$510-$512.57区域企稳时,可 考虑轻仓试多,博取反弹。 ·若回调至$505**或**$494.60 等更强支撑位并出现企稳迹象,或 许是相对稳健的逢低布局机会。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479376988225536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479378622894784,"gmtCreate":1758070600870,"gmtModify":1758079428986,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,合作风险:微软与OpenAl的合作关系 可能出现变化(如OpenAl引入其他投 资方),虽然微软在通过自研降低依 赖,但仍需关注。","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,合作风险:微软与OpenAl的合作关系 可能出现变化(如OpenAl引入其他投 资方),虽然微软在通过自研降低依 赖,但仍需关注。","text":"我平仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,合作风险:微软与OpenAl的合作关系 可能出现变化(如OpenAl引入其他投 资方),虽然微软在通过自研降低依 赖,但仍需关注。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479378622894784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479378007519480,"gmtCreate":1758070564645,"gmtModify":1758073617847,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,行业竞争与监管:AI领域竞争日趋激 烈,谷歌、Meta等公司不断推出强大模 型。同时,全球范围内对AI的监管政 策可能趋严,虽然微软已提前布局合规 框架,但行业整体环境变化仍可能带来 挑战。","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,行业竞争与监管:AI领域竞争日趋激 烈,谷歌、Meta等公司不断推出强大模 型。同时,全球范围内对AI的监管政 策可能趋严,虽然微软已提前布局合规 框架,但行业整体环境变化仍可能带来 挑战。","text":"我平仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,行业竞争与监管:AI领域竞争日趋激 烈,谷歌、Meta等公司不断推出强大模 型。同时,全球范围内对AI的监管政 策可能趋严,虽然微软已提前布局合规 框架,但行业整体环境变化仍可能带来 挑战。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479378007519480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479376383353344,"gmtCreate":1758070531937,"gmtModify":1758073618231,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,宏观经济风险:美联储货币政策的不确 定性(如高利率环境维持更久)可能对 科技股估值持续构成压力。","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,宏观经济风险:美联储货币政策的不确 定性(如高利率环境维持更久)可能对 科技股估值持续构成压力。","text":"我平仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,宏观经济风险:美联储货币政策的不确 定性(如高利率环境维持更久)可能对 科技股估值持续构成压力。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479376383353344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479117401161736,"gmtCreate":1757990878548,"gmtModify":1757991081269,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,基本面催化剂:微软云业务(Azure) 收入增长27%及AI整合(如 Anthropic模型接入Office 365) 是长期利好。密切关注美联储9月利率 决议(预计潜在降息可能利好科技股)","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,基本面催化剂:微软云业务(Azure) 收入增长27%及AI整合(如 Anthropic模型接入Office 365) 是长期利好。密切关注美联储9月利率 决议(预计潜在降息可能利好科技股)","text":"我开仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,基本面催化剂:微软云业务(Azure) 收入增长27%及AI整合(如 Anthropic模型接入Office 365) 是长期利好。密切关注美联储9月利率 决议(预计潜在降息可能利好科技股)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479117401161736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479116925407392,"gmtCreate":1757990787098,"gmtModify":1758029708009,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,稳健的财务与股东回报:微软宣布将 季度股息提高10%至每股0.91美元 ,这体现了公司良好的现金流状况 和回馈股东的承诺,增强了长期投资 者的信心。","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,稳健的财务与股东回报:微软宣布将 季度股息提高10%至每股0.91美元 ,这体现了公司良好的现金流状况 和回馈股东的承诺,增强了长期投资 者的信心。","text":"我开仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,稳健的财务与股东回报:微软宣布将 季度股息提高10%至每股0.91美元 ,这体现了公司良好的现金流状况 和回馈股东的承诺,增强了长期投资 者的信心。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479116925407392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479118843944992,"gmtCreate":1757990755750,"gmtModify":1757991075758,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,Azure云服务与AI商业化潜力:虽然 Azure增速有波动,但其未来订单量 显示了强劲的增长潜力。AI相关 服务(如Azure AI、 Microsoft 365 Copilot)已带来可观的营收(估算 分别突破140亿美元和近25亿美元) ,且企业级AI应用仍处于早期阶 段,未来有望持续成为业绩驱动力。","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>,Azure云服务与AI商业化潜力:虽然 Azure增速有波动,但其未来订单量 显示了强劲的增长潜力。AI相关 服务(如Azure AI、 Microsoft 365 Copilot)已带来可观的营收(估算 分别突破140亿美元和近25亿美元) ,且企业级AI应用仍处于早期阶 段,未来有望持续成为业绩驱动力。","text":"我平仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ ,Azure云服务与AI商业化潜力:虽然 Azure增速有波动,但其未来订单量 显示了强劲的增长潜力。AI相关 服务(如Azure AI、 Microsoft 365 Copilot)已带来可观的营收(估算 分别突破140亿美元和近25亿美元) ,且企业级AI应用仍处于早期阶 段,未来有望持续成为业绩驱动力。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479118843944992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479117754962104,"gmtCreate":1757990732546,"gmtModify":1757990901283,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>, AI战略深入推进与自研大模型:微软 正在大力投资训练自研AI大模型(如 MAl-1),计划将计算集群规模扩大至 当前的六到十倍,以媲美Meta、谷歌 等公司的前沿模型。这减少了微软 对OpenAl的单一依赖,掌握了AI发 展的核心技术主动权,为长期竞争。力 奠定基础","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL\">$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ </a>, AI战略深入推进与自研大模型:微软 正在大力投资训练自研AI大模型(如 MAl-1),计划将计算集群规模扩大至 当前的六到十倍,以媲美Meta、谷歌 等公司的前沿模型。这减少了微软 对OpenAl的单一依赖,掌握了AI发 展的核心技术主动权,为长期竞争。力 奠定基础","text":"我平仓了$MSFT 20250919 520.0 CALL$ , AI战略深入推进与自研大模型:微软 正在大力投资训练自研AI大模型(如 MAl-1),计划将计算集群规模扩大至 当前的六到十倍,以媲美Meta、谷歌 等公司的前沿模型。这减少了微软 对OpenAl的单一依赖,掌握了AI发 展的核心技术主动权,为长期竞争。力 奠定基础","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479117754962104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":471614930502208,"gmtCreate":1756171838570,"gmtModify":1756173458054,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"title":"CRCL的运转逻辑","htmlText":"Circle(CRCL)的核心业务是发行稳定币USDC。其运作模式和收入来源主要有以下两方面: 1. 稳定币储备利息收入:这是Circle最核心、占比最高的收入来源(近年来常占总营收的95%以上)。当用户用1美元兑换1 USDC时,Circle会将这些美元储备金主要投资于短期美国国债、由美国政府支持的回购协议以及现金或政府货币市场基金等低风险、高流动性的资产。这些储备资产产生的利息收入绝大部分归Circle所有(USDC持有者通常不获得利息)。简单理解,Circle就像一个“超级货币基金”,通过赚取储备资产的利息差来盈利。 2. 平台与交易服务收入:Circle也正在积极拓展第二收入来源,包括通过其跨链转账协议(CCTP)收取手续费、为开发者提供区块链基础设施服务(如钱包、智能合约工具)收取API费用,以及通过其支付网络(CPN)和自研公链Arc(计划将USDC作为原生代币用于支付Gas费)来获取交易手续费。尽管这部分收入目前占比很小,但增速较快,代表了Circle向“金融基础设施”服务商转型的方向。 需要特别注意的是,Circle需要将其利息收入的很大一部分(约三分之二)分润给像Coinbase、币安这样的合作伙伴,以激励它们推广和使用USDC。这也是其重要的成本支出之一。 降息对CRCL是利好还是利空? 普遍观点认为,美联储降息对Circle(CRCL)短期内更偏向利空,主要原因是其盈利模式对利率环境高度敏感。 为了更直观地展示降息对Circle的主要影响,我为你梳理了一个表格: 影响方面 具体内容 潜在结果 核心收入减少 储备金主要投资短期美债等,降息直接导致这些资产收益率下降。 利息收入缩水,除非USDC流通量能大幅对冲。 盈利能力承压 收入端减少,但分给合作渠道(如Coinbase)的成本比例相对刚性。 利润率可能被压缩。 市场信心与估值 高利率环境下,市场给予其","listText":"Circle(CRCL)的核心业务是发行稳定币USDC。其运作模式和收入来源主要有以下两方面: 1. 稳定币储备利息收入:这是Circle最核心、占比最高的收入来源(近年来常占总营收的95%以上)。当用户用1美元兑换1 USDC时,Circle会将这些美元储备金主要投资于短期美国国债、由美国政府支持的回购协议以及现金或政府货币市场基金等低风险、高流动性的资产。这些储备资产产生的利息收入绝大部分归Circle所有(USDC持有者通常不获得利息)。简单理解,Circle就像一个“超级货币基金”,通过赚取储备资产的利息差来盈利。 2. 平台与交易服务收入:Circle也正在积极拓展第二收入来源,包括通过其跨链转账协议(CCTP)收取手续费、为开发者提供区块链基础设施服务(如钱包、智能合约工具)收取API费用,以及通过其支付网络(CPN)和自研公链Arc(计划将USDC作为原生代币用于支付Gas费)来获取交易手续费。尽管这部分收入目前占比很小,但增速较快,代表了Circle向“金融基础设施”服务商转型的方向。 需要特别注意的是,Circle需要将其利息收入的很大一部分(约三分之二)分润给像Coinbase、币安这样的合作伙伴,以激励它们推广和使用USDC。这也是其重要的成本支出之一。 降息对CRCL是利好还是利空? 普遍观点认为,美联储降息对Circle(CRCL)短期内更偏向利空,主要原因是其盈利模式对利率环境高度敏感。 为了更直观地展示降息对Circle的主要影响,我为你梳理了一个表格: 影响方面 具体内容 潜在结果 核心收入减少 储备金主要投资短期美债等,降息直接导致这些资产收益率下降。 利息收入缩水,除非USDC流通量能大幅对冲。 盈利能力承压 收入端减少,但分给合作渠道(如Coinbase)的成本比例相对刚性。 利润率可能被压缩。 市场信心与估值 高利率环境下,市场给予其","text":"Circle(CRCL)的核心业务是发行稳定币USDC。其运作模式和收入来源主要有以下两方面: 1. 稳定币储备利息收入:这是Circle最核心、占比最高的收入来源(近年来常占总营收的95%以上)。当用户用1美元兑换1 USDC时,Circle会将这些美元储备金主要投资于短期美国国债、由美国政府支持的回购协议以及现金或政府货币市场基金等低风险、高流动性的资产。这些储备资产产生的利息收入绝大部分归Circle所有(USDC持有者通常不获得利息)。简单理解,Circle就像一个“超级货币基金”,通过赚取储备资产的利息差来盈利。 2. 平台与交易服务收入:Circle也正在积极拓展第二收入来源,包括通过其跨链转账协议(CCTP)收取手续费、为开发者提供区块链基础设施服务(如钱包、智能合约工具)收取API费用,以及通过其支付网络(CPN)和自研公链Arc(计划将USDC作为原生代币用于支付Gas费)来获取交易手续费。尽管这部分收入目前占比很小,但增速较快,代表了Circle向“金融基础设施”服务商转型的方向。 需要特别注意的是,Circle需要将其利息收入的很大一部分(约三分之二)分润给像Coinbase、币安这样的合作伙伴,以激励它们推广和使用USDC。这也是其重要的成本支出之一。 降息对CRCL是利好还是利空? 普遍观点认为,美联储降息对Circle(CRCL)短期内更偏向利空,主要原因是其盈利模式对利率环境高度敏感。 为了更直观地展示降息对Circle的主要影响,我为你梳理了一个表格: 影响方面 具体内容 潜在结果 核心收入减少 储备金主要投资短期美债等,降息直接导致这些资产收益率下降。 利息收入缩水,除非USDC流通量能大幅对冲。 盈利能力承压 收入端减少,但分给合作渠道(如Coinbase)的成本比例相对刚性。 利润率可能被压缩。 市场信心与估值 高利率环境下,市场给予其","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d65bb25d365999516fe01d44715c32","width":"1080","height":"712"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/471614930502208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010484","authorId":"10000000000010484","name":"笑猫日记","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e720c7d3a4835efa4409feb9b8f386","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010484","authorIdStr":"10000000000010484"},"content":"这个位置很纠结,目前看不到任何止跌信号,还有降息和解禁的危机。但是Circle有时候不按常理出牌,疯起来一下就拉上去了。所以现在这个阶段很难受","text":"这个位置很纠结,目前看不到任何止跌信号,还有降息和解禁的危机。但是Circle有时候不按常理出牌,疯起来一下就拉上去了。所以现在这个阶段很难受","html":"这个位置很纠结,目前看不到任何止跌信号,还有降息和解禁的危机。但是Circle有时候不按常理出牌,疯起来一下就拉上去了。所以现在这个阶段很难受"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":434584491926384,"gmtCreate":1747133235448,"gmtModify":1747652626194,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$ </a>,联合健康(UNH.N) 2025年的展望因医疗成本超预期显 著承压,市场对其估值逻辑正在重 塑。以下是客观分析: 1.盈利预期大幅下调,估值锚点 下移 ·公司2025年Q1财报显示,调整 后全年EPS指引从29.5-30美元 下调至26-26.5美元,降幅约12%。 若以当前股价420美元 (截至2025年5月数据)和EPS 中值26.25美元计算,前瞻市盈率 (Forward P/E)约为16倍,低于 近五年平均的18.5倍 ·但需注意,此前市场对2025年 EPS的共识预期为29.74美元,此 次下调后实际EPS可能进一步低于 预期,若成本压力持续,动态估值 可能被动抬升。","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$ </a>,联合健康(UNH.N) 2025年的展望因医疗成本超预期显 著承压,市场对其估值逻辑正在重 塑。以下是客观分析: 1.盈利预期大幅下调,估值锚点 下移 ·公司2025年Q1财报显示,调整 后全年EPS指引从29.5-30美元 下调至26-26.5美元,降幅约12%。 若以当前股价420美元 (截至2025年5月数据)和EPS 中值26.25美元计算,前瞻市盈率 (Forward P/E)约为16倍,低于 近五年平均的18.5倍 ·但需注意,此前市场对2025年 EPS的共识预期为29.74美元,此 次下调后实际EPS可能进一步低于 预期,若成本压力持续,动态估值 可能被动抬升。","text":"我开仓了$联合健康(UNH)$ ,联合健康(UNH.N) 2025年的展望因医疗成本超预期显 著承压,市场对其估值逻辑正在重 塑。以下是客观分析: 1.盈利预期大幅下调,估值锚点 下移 ·公司2025年Q1财报显示,调整 后全年EPS指引从29.5-30美元 下调至26-26.5美元,降幅约12%。 若以当前股价420美元 (截至2025年5月数据)和EPS 中值26.25美元计算,前瞻市盈率 (Forward P/E)约为16倍,低于 近五年平均的18.5倍 ·但需注意,此前市场对2025年 EPS的共识预期为29.74美元,此 次下调后实际EPS可能进一步低于 预期,若成本压力持续,动态估值 可能被动抬升。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/434584491926384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568297336315085","authorId":"3568297336315085","name":"小鹏2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d897b36ef990579d0cd5f91b68c6575","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568297336315085","authorIdStr":"3568297336315085"},"content":"获利了结?","text":"获利了结?","html":"获利了结?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375863759917504,"gmtCreate":1732804841029,"gmtModify":1732806953760,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"title":"关于微策略 (MSTR) 的观点分析","htmlText":"这个观点是最近在海外社区比较传播热门的一个角度: 关于微策略 (MSTR) 的观点分析 核心观点要点: 1.微策略可转换债券的核心买家是对冲基金 2.可转换债券内嵌看涨期权,可以获得更高的杠杆比例进行波动性套利 3.对冲基金不关心价格的涨跌,只要价格在波动,就可以套利 4.对冲基金也完全不想把这些债券转换为股票,因为这样就降低了杠杆比例 5.在这个 gamma 游戏里,对冲基金是赢家 6.微策略目前也是赢家,MSTR 获得了高涨价。但要是这个游戏进行下去,就必须不断制造出\"波动性\",还得不断推高比特币价格,否则股价都会下跌,游戏结束 (game over) 7.持股人很容易成为输家(是的你没看错)。因为 MSTR 波动性极高,你买入的时候如果对冲基金是否在做空,就会被套在山顶。如果要玩这个游戏,需要选对进入时间点,然后及时撤出 8.Michael Saylor 有一件事说了实话,微策略实际在出售的产品就是\"波动性\" 让 ClaudeAI 做一个简单的分析:你怎么看待这个观点的 “正确性” 和 “正确概率” 我对这个观点的评估: 1.高度可信部分(90%+ 正确) 可转债的基础机制描述 对冲基金参与者的角色 对散户风险的提示 Gamma 交易策略的存在 2.部分可信但需要补充(70-80% 正确) 对冲基金的套利行为描述 高波动性与套利机会的关系 MSTR 股价与 BTC 价格的关联 2.存疑部分(50-60% 正确) \"只为制造波动性\"的动机推测 对 Saylor 策略意图的解读 游戏持续性的预判 3.可能存在的盲点: a,战略层面 忽视了 MSTR 的长期商业转型意图 低估了机构投资者对 BTC 的配置需求 过分简化了公司的财务战略 b,市场机制 未充分考虑市场流动性因素 忽视了其他类型投资者的影响 对价格发现机制理解片面 c, 风险因素 未提及监管风险 未考虑宏观经济环","listText":"这个观点是最近在海外社区比较传播热门的一个角度: 关于微策略 (MSTR) 的观点分析 核心观点要点: 1.微策略可转换债券的核心买家是对冲基金 2.可转换债券内嵌看涨期权,可以获得更高的杠杆比例进行波动性套利 3.对冲基金不关心价格的涨跌,只要价格在波动,就可以套利 4.对冲基金也完全不想把这些债券转换为股票,因为这样就降低了杠杆比例 5.在这个 gamma 游戏里,对冲基金是赢家 6.微策略目前也是赢家,MSTR 获得了高涨价。但要是这个游戏进行下去,就必须不断制造出\"波动性\",还得不断推高比特币价格,否则股价都会下跌,游戏结束 (game over) 7.持股人很容易成为输家(是的你没看错)。因为 MSTR 波动性极高,你买入的时候如果对冲基金是否在做空,就会被套在山顶。如果要玩这个游戏,需要选对进入时间点,然后及时撤出 8.Michael Saylor 有一件事说了实话,微策略实际在出售的产品就是\"波动性\" 让 ClaudeAI 做一个简单的分析:你怎么看待这个观点的 “正确性” 和 “正确概率” 我对这个观点的评估: 1.高度可信部分(90%+ 正确) 可转债的基础机制描述 对冲基金参与者的角色 对散户风险的提示 Gamma 交易策略的存在 2.部分可信但需要补充(70-80% 正确) 对冲基金的套利行为描述 高波动性与套利机会的关系 MSTR 股价与 BTC 价格的关联 2.存疑部分(50-60% 正确) \"只为制造波动性\"的动机推测 对 Saylor 策略意图的解读 游戏持续性的预判 3.可能存在的盲点: a,战略层面 忽视了 MSTR 的长期商业转型意图 低估了机构投资者对 BTC 的配置需求 过分简化了公司的财务战略 b,市场机制 未充分考虑市场流动性因素 忽视了其他类型投资者的影响 对价格发现机制理解片面 c, 风险因素 未提及监管风险 未考虑宏观经济环","text":"这个观点是最近在海外社区比较传播热门的一个角度: 关于微策略 (MSTR) 的观点分析 核心观点要点: 1.微策略可转换债券的核心买家是对冲基金 2.可转换债券内嵌看涨期权,可以获得更高的杠杆比例进行波动性套利 3.对冲基金不关心价格的涨跌,只要价格在波动,就可以套利 4.对冲基金也完全不想把这些债券转换为股票,因为这样就降低了杠杆比例 5.在这个 gamma 游戏里,对冲基金是赢家 6.微策略目前也是赢家,MSTR 获得了高涨价。但要是这个游戏进行下去,就必须不断制造出\"波动性\",还得不断推高比特币价格,否则股价都会下跌,游戏结束 (game over) 7.持股人很容易成为输家(是的你没看错)。因为 MSTR 波动性极高,你买入的时候如果对冲基金是否在做空,就会被套在山顶。如果要玩这个游戏,需要选对进入时间点,然后及时撤出 8.Michael Saylor 有一件事说了实话,微策略实际在出售的产品就是\"波动性\" 让 ClaudeAI 做一个简单的分析:你怎么看待这个观点的 “正确性” 和 “正确概率” 我对这个观点的评估: 1.高度可信部分(90%+ 正确) 可转债的基础机制描述 对冲基金参与者的角色 对散户风险的提示 Gamma 交易策略的存在 2.部分可信但需要补充(70-80% 正确) 对冲基金的套利行为描述 高波动性与套利机会的关系 MSTR 股价与 BTC 价格的关联 2.存疑部分(50-60% 正确) \"只为制造波动性\"的动机推测 对 Saylor 策略意图的解读 游戏持续性的预判 3.可能存在的盲点: a,战略层面 忽视了 MSTR 的长期商业转型意图 低估了机构投资者对 BTC 的配置需求 过分简化了公司的财务战略 b,市场机制 未充分考虑市场流动性因素 忽视了其他类型投资者的影响 对价格发现机制理解片面 c, 风险因素 未提及监管风险 未考虑宏观经济环","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375863759917504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000269","authorId":"9000000000000269","name":"米澜之家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000269","authorIdStr":"9000000000000269"},"content":"这个分析很有深度,但可能低估了长期价值的潜力","text":"这个分析很有深度,但可能低估了长期价值的潜力","html":"这个分析很有深度,但可能低估了长期价值的潜力"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":451992560697376,"gmtCreate":1751375792532,"gmtModify":1751881243960,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>,1.止损点位·紧急止损线:240-250美元若跌破2025年3月低点(222美元)后反弹通道下沿,需果断止损,防范恐慌性抛售·次级防御位:290-300美元2025年6月暴跌后形成的弱支撑区,若放量跌破则确认下行加速","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>,1.止损点位·紧急止损线:240-250美元若跌破2025年3月低点(222美元)后反弹通道下沿,需果断止损,防范恐慌性抛售·次级防御位:290-300美元2025年6月暴跌后形成的弱支撑区,若放量跌破则确认下行加速","text":"我开仓了$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ,1.止损点位·紧急止损线:240-250美元若跌破2025年3月低点(222美元)后反弹通道下沿,需果断止损,防范恐慌性抛售·次级防御位:290-300美元2025年6月暴跌后形成的弱支撑区,若放量跌破则确认下行加速","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/451992560697376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366603499467016,"gmtCreate":1730529019753,"gmtModify":1746578723503,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ </a>,sell put 被行权,已经提前roll下周22.5的,财报iv非常高,做卖权正当时","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ </a>,sell put 被行权,已经提前roll下周22.5的,财报iv非常高,做卖权正当时","text":"我开仓了$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ ,sell put 被行权,已经提前roll下周22.5的,财报iv非常高,做卖权正当时","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366603499467016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568455308439981","authorId":"3568455308439981","name":"小目标100万美金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cadafe1d8b9211203b951c702458d18","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568455308439981","authorIdStr":"3568455308439981"},"content":"IV高对期权好吗?","text":"IV高对期权好吗?","html":"IV高对期权好吗?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":432854641480296,"gmtCreate":1746711344850,"gmtModify":1746711374107,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/OXY 20250509 36.5 PUT\">$OXY 20250509 36.5 PUT$ </a>,西方石油短期受制于行业利空,但长期基本面改善(债务削减、产量增长)及巴菲特加持提供支撑。建议长期投资者在35-40美元区间分批建仓,短期投资者需关注油价波动及技术面信号。","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/OXY 20250509 36.5 PUT\">$OXY 20250509 36.5 PUT$ </a>,西方石油短期受制于行业利空,但长期基本面改善(债务削减、产量增长)及巴菲特加持提供支撑。建议长期投资者在35-40美元区间分批建仓,短期投资者需关注油价波动及技术面信号。","text":"我平仓了$OXY 20250509 36.5 PUT$ ,西方石油短期受制于行业利空,但长期基本面改善(债务削减、产量增长)及巴菲特加持提供支撑。建议长期投资者在35-40美元区间分批建仓,短期投资者需关注油价波动及技术面信号。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/432854641480296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316550304026792,"gmtCreate":1718310535720,"gmtModify":1746578723463,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">$Adobe(ADBE)$ </a>,哭死,少赚了11%,盘中下单,忘记把盘后撤单啦,真正是拍断大腿","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">$Adobe(ADBE)$ </a>,哭死,少赚了11%,盘中下单,忘记把盘后撤单啦,真正是拍断大腿","text":"我平仓了$Adobe(ADBE)$ ,哭死,少赚了11%,盘中下单,忘记把盘后撤单啦,真正是拍断大腿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316550304026792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4116120629756200","authorId":"4116120629756200","name":"股神来了哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25de2be2ea9e639966245e90e5bb43d1","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4116120629756200","authorIdStr":"4116120629756200"},"content":"盘后涨这么多,差不多也就是这样了吧,长期看好吗","text":"盘后涨这么多,差不多也就是这样了吧,长期看好吗","html":"盘后涨这么多,差不多也就是这样了吧,长期看好吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":442425148097312,"gmtCreate":1749036752157,"gmtModify":1749109065239,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"title":"联合健康(UNH.US)于2025年6月24日派息每股2.21美元是否属于实质利好的多角度分析:","htmlText":"️ 一、派息本身的常规利好属性 稳定股东信心 派息是公司向股东分配利润的一种方式,通常意味着公司现金流充裕且盈利稳定。联合健康在2025年年内股价大幅下跌,年初至今跌40.45%,近一月股价也表现不佳,这种情况下进行派息,能够向市场传递公司财务具有韧性的信号。对于股东来说,这在短期内可以安抚市场情绪,让他们感受到公司即便处于困境,依然有能力回馈股东,从而稳定股东对公司的信心。 长期回报承诺 联合健康在历史上一直坚持派息政策,已连续15年提升分红。此次派息符合其长期以来对股东回报的传统,对于那些长期持有联合健康股票的投资者而言,派息是他们投资该股票的收入来源之一。这种持续的派息承诺,有助于吸引和留住长期投资者,让他们更愿意与公司共同成长。 ️ 二、当前利空因素削弱派息利好效应 基本面恶化与盈利预期下调 业绩暴雷:2025年第一季度,联合健康因医保优势计划(Medicare Advantage)医疗成本激增,导致公司大幅下调全年盈利预期。美银预测其每股收益(EPS)将缩水10% - 20%,与最初制定的长期目标相比,下调幅度高达21% - 29%。盈利预期的下调反映出公司基本面出现恶化,这使得派息的利好效应被削弱,因为投资者更关注公司未来的盈利能力。 会员增长停滞:为了恢复利润率(目标3% - 5%),公司计划调整竞标策略。然而,这种调整可能会导致用户流失,进而影响公司的会员增长。会员数量是保险公司重要的业务指标之一,会员增长停滞或下滑将对公司的未来营收和利润产生负面影响,进一步抵消了派息带来的利好。 管理层动荡与战略不确定性 CEO安德鲁·威蒂(Andrew Witty)突然辞职,前CEO斯蒂芬·海姆斯利紧急回归,这一事件暴露了公司内部管理的失序。管理层的动荡使得公司的战略制定和执行面临不确定性,新任CEO需要重新审视和制定公司战略。在这个过渡期内,公司业务的发展方向不明确,","listText":"️ 一、派息本身的常规利好属性 稳定股东信心 派息是公司向股东分配利润的一种方式,通常意味着公司现金流充裕且盈利稳定。联合健康在2025年年内股价大幅下跌,年初至今跌40.45%,近一月股价也表现不佳,这种情况下进行派息,能够向市场传递公司财务具有韧性的信号。对于股东来说,这在短期内可以安抚市场情绪,让他们感受到公司即便处于困境,依然有能力回馈股东,从而稳定股东对公司的信心。 长期回报承诺 联合健康在历史上一直坚持派息政策,已连续15年提升分红。此次派息符合其长期以来对股东回报的传统,对于那些长期持有联合健康股票的投资者而言,派息是他们投资该股票的收入来源之一。这种持续的派息承诺,有助于吸引和留住长期投资者,让他们更愿意与公司共同成长。 ️ 二、当前利空因素削弱派息利好效应 基本面恶化与盈利预期下调 业绩暴雷:2025年第一季度,联合健康因医保优势计划(Medicare Advantage)医疗成本激增,导致公司大幅下调全年盈利预期。美银预测其每股收益(EPS)将缩水10% - 20%,与最初制定的长期目标相比,下调幅度高达21% - 29%。盈利预期的下调反映出公司基本面出现恶化,这使得派息的利好效应被削弱,因为投资者更关注公司未来的盈利能力。 会员增长停滞:为了恢复利润率(目标3% - 5%),公司计划调整竞标策略。然而,这种调整可能会导致用户流失,进而影响公司的会员增长。会员数量是保险公司重要的业务指标之一,会员增长停滞或下滑将对公司的未来营收和利润产生负面影响,进一步抵消了派息带来的利好。 管理层动荡与战略不确定性 CEO安德鲁·威蒂(Andrew Witty)突然辞职,前CEO斯蒂芬·海姆斯利紧急回归,这一事件暴露了公司内部管理的失序。管理层的动荡使得公司的战略制定和执行面临不确定性,新任CEO需要重新审视和制定公司战略。在这个过渡期内,公司业务的发展方向不明确,","text":"️ 一、派息本身的常规利好属性 稳定股东信心 派息是公司向股东分配利润的一种方式,通常意味着公司现金流充裕且盈利稳定。联合健康在2025年年内股价大幅下跌,年初至今跌40.45%,近一月股价也表现不佳,这种情况下进行派息,能够向市场传递公司财务具有韧性的信号。对于股东来说,这在短期内可以安抚市场情绪,让他们感受到公司即便处于困境,依然有能力回馈股东,从而稳定股东对公司的信心。 长期回报承诺 联合健康在历史上一直坚持派息政策,已连续15年提升分红。此次派息符合其长期以来对股东回报的传统,对于那些长期持有联合健康股票的投资者而言,派息是他们投资该股票的收入来源之一。这种持续的派息承诺,有助于吸引和留住长期投资者,让他们更愿意与公司共同成长。 ️ 二、当前利空因素削弱派息利好效应 基本面恶化与盈利预期下调 业绩暴雷:2025年第一季度,联合健康因医保优势计划(Medicare Advantage)医疗成本激增,导致公司大幅下调全年盈利预期。美银预测其每股收益(EPS)将缩水10% - 20%,与最初制定的长期目标相比,下调幅度高达21% - 29%。盈利预期的下调反映出公司基本面出现恶化,这使得派息的利好效应被削弱,因为投资者更关注公司未来的盈利能力。 会员增长停滞:为了恢复利润率(目标3% - 5%),公司计划调整竞标策略。然而,这种调整可能会导致用户流失,进而影响公司的会员增长。会员数量是保险公司重要的业务指标之一,会员增长停滞或下滑将对公司的未来营收和利润产生负面影响,进一步抵消了派息带来的利好。 管理层动荡与战略不确定性 CEO安德鲁·威蒂(Andrew Witty)突然辞职,前CEO斯蒂芬·海姆斯利紧急回归,这一事件暴露了公司内部管理的失序。管理层的动荡使得公司的战略制定和执行面临不确定性,新任CEO需要重新审视和制定公司战略。在这个过渡期内,公司业务的发展方向不明确,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6f2c73eaeb0951dec3642d3f5404f09","width":"1080","height":"576"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442425148097312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4130377405762172","authorId":"4130377405762172","name":"港乜嘢吖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e11ebd9218be3a4ecb251c3d8f63596","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4130377405762172","authorIdStr":"4130377405762172"},"content":"感觉unh不会倒","text":"感觉unh不会倒","html":"感觉unh不会倒"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364211347791976,"gmtCreate":1729928804572,"gmtModify":1746578723468,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ </a>,sell put被动行权,股票看着是亏损的,几番操作折合权利金还是有盈利的","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ </a>,sell put被动行权,股票看着是亏损的,几番操作折合权利金还是有盈利的","text":"我开仓了$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ ,sell put被动行权,股票看着是亏损的,几番操作折合权利金还是有盈利的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":23,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364211347791976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430785825554696,"gmtCreate":1746194344532,"gmtModify":1746596035182,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20250502 480.0 PUT\">$QQQ 20250502 480.0 PUT$ </a>,5月1日数据:纳指收于17,710.74 点,单日涨幅达1.52%,连续八日 上涨,创下年内最长连涨纪录。 科技股领涨,微软、Meta、英 伟达等巨头表现强劲,其中微软因 Azure云业务增长超预期,股价单 日涨幅超7% ·对比3月低点:3月7日纳指曾跌 至18,069.26点,进入技术性调整 (较历史高点下跌超10%),随 后因贸易政策不确定性和科技股抛 售进一步下探,4月5日甚至跌入 熊市(较高点下跌20%) 。 但5月市场情绪回暖,纳指逐步回升 至17,700点附近,接近18000点关","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20250502 480.0 PUT\">$QQQ 20250502 480.0 PUT$ </a>,5月1日数据:纳指收于17,710.74 点,单日涨幅达1.52%,连续八日 上涨,创下年内最长连涨纪录。 科技股领涨,微软、Meta、英 伟达等巨头表现强劲,其中微软因 Azure云业务增长超预期,股价单 日涨幅超7% ·对比3月低点:3月7日纳指曾跌 至18,069.26点,进入技术性调整 (较历史高点下跌超10%),随 后因贸易政策不确定性和科技股抛 售进一步下探,4月5日甚至跌入 熊市(较高点下跌20%) 。 但5月市场情绪回暖,纳指逐步回升 至17,700点附近,接近18000点关","text":"我开仓了$QQQ 20250502 480.0 PUT$ ,5月1日数据:纳指收于17,710.74 点,单日涨幅达1.52%,连续八日 上涨,创下年内最长连涨纪录。 科技股领涨,微软、Meta、英 伟达等巨头表现强劲,其中微软因 Azure云业务增长超预期,股价单 日涨幅超7% ·对比3月低点:3月7日纳指曾跌 至18,069.26点,进入技术性调整 (较历史高点下跌超10%),随 后因贸易政策不确定性和科技股抛 售进一步下探,4月5日甚至跌入 熊市(较高点下跌20%) 。 但5月市场情绪回暖,纳指逐步回升 至17,700点附近,接近18000点关","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430785825554696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430590537105944,"gmtCreate":1746146113743,"gmtModify":1746588062661,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250502 102.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250502 102.0 PUT$ </a>,2025年5月,英伟达股价预计在 110-140美元区间震荡,核心波动 逻辑围绕地缘政策、产品周期及AI 需求分化展开。投资者需密切关注 Blackwell芯片进展、关税政策动向 及大客户资本支出信号。长期来看, 英伟达仍是AI算力核心标的,但短期 波动性或持续高于市场平均水平","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250502 102.0 PUT\">$NVDA 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波动性或持续高于市场平均水平","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430590537105944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366603350720552,"gmtCreate":1730528913293,"gmtModify":1746578723534,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ </a>,上周sell put 入的货,本周Covered Call出掉,区间操作套利","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ </a>,上周sell put 入的货,本周Covered Call出掉,区间操作套利","text":"我平仓了$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ ,上周sell put 入的货,本周Covered Call出掉,区间操作套利","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366603350720552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4184399902870452","authorId":"4184399902870452","name":"乱七八糟一堆","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4184399902870452","authorIdStr":"4184399902870452"},"content":"看不太懂这个套利[开心][开心]","text":"看不太懂这个套利[开心][开心]","html":"看不太懂这个套利[开心][开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":428370896625680,"gmtCreate":1745613478778,"gmtModify":1746578723568,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250425 111.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20250425 111.0 CALL$ </a>,英伟达通过Blackwell架构芯片的 推出,进一步巩固在AI计算领域 的领导地位。黄仁勋提出“下一场 工业革命已开始”,强调AI将重塑 全球数据中心和生产力","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250425 111.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20250425 111.0 CALL$ </a>,英伟达通过Blackwell架构芯片的 推出,进一步巩固在AI计算领域 的领导地位。黄仁勋提出“下一场 工业革命已开始”,强调AI将重塑 全球数据中心和生产力","text":"我开仓了$NVDA 20250425 111.0 CALL$ ,英伟达通过Blackwell架构芯片的 推出,进一步巩固在AI计算领域 的领导地位。黄仁勋提出“下一场 工业革命已开始”,强调AI将重塑 全球数据中心和生产力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/428370896625680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4088626949262520","authorId":"4088626949262520","name":"Inmoretion","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1c0fdec2b419399e39fd0a7b103ef63","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088626949262520","authorIdStr":"4088626949262520"},"content":"其实ai发展到后面对芯片的球会越来越高,高级别的显卡还是必要的","text":"其实ai发展到后面对芯片的球会越来越高,高级别的显卡还是必要的","html":"其实ai发展到后面对芯片的球会越来越高,高级别的显卡还是必要的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":431024547160816,"gmtCreate":1746252843013,"gmtModify":1746588366942,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a>,英伟达2025年5月财报:一场“高烧不退”的资本狂欢与泡沫焦虑 1. “爆表”的业绩,撑不起市场的贪婪 数据炸裂但预期更高: 2025财年Q1营收260亿美元(同比+262%)、净利润148.8亿美元(同比+628%)、毛利率冲上78.4%——这组数据放在任何行业都是“核弹级”,但资本市场却已对英伟达的“超预期”习以为常。当市场预期被喂成“饕餮”,连“三位数增长”都成了“基本操作”,稍有放缓便引发恐慌。 PE高悬37倍,泡沫论甚嚣尘上: 即便股价年内涨幅超115%、市值一度登顶全球,但37倍的市盈率(PE)让市场如坐针毡。美股“七巨头”平均PE仅28倍,英伟达的估值溢价成了“薛定谔的炸弹”——既可能被AI算力刚需撑住,也可能因增速换挡瞬间崩盘。 2. Blackwell芯片:延迟的“救世主”与资本的双标 跳票三个月,需求画饼难掩供应链狼狈: Blackwell芯片原定Q2出货,却因设计缺陷和台积电封装难题推迟至Q4,黄仁勋一边高呼“需求难以置信”,一边靠Hopper芯片硬撑场子。市场嘴上说着“理解”,身体却很诚实——盘后股价暴跌8%,市值蒸发千亿。 “既要又要”的资本逻辑: 投资者既希望Blackwell“秒天秒地”延续增长神话,又担心其量产爬坡不及预期;既渴望英","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a>,英伟达2025年5月财报:一场“高烧不退”的资本狂欢与泡沫焦虑 1. “爆表”的业绩,撑不起市场的贪婪 数据炸裂但预期更高: 2025财年Q1营收260亿美元(同比+262%)、净利润148.8亿美元(同比+628%)、毛利率冲上78.4%——这组数据放在任何行业都是“核弹级”,但资本市场却已对英伟达的“超预期”习以为常。当市场预期被喂成“饕餮”,连“三位数增长”都成了“基本操作”,稍有放缓便引发恐慌。 PE高悬37倍,泡沫论甚嚣尘上: 即便股价年内涨幅超115%、市值一度登顶全球,但37倍的市盈率(PE)让市场如坐针毡。美股“七巨头”平均PE仅28倍,英伟达的估值溢价成了“薛定谔的炸弹”——既可能被AI算力刚需撑住,也可能因增速换挡瞬间崩盘。 2. Blackwell芯片:延迟的“救世主”与资本的双标 跳票三个月,需求画饼难掩供应链狼狈: Blackwell芯片原定Q2出货,却因设计缺陷和台积电封装难题推迟至Q4,黄仁勋一边高呼“需求难以置信”,一边靠Hopper芯片硬撑场子。市场嘴上说着“理解”,身体却很诚实——盘后股价暴跌8%,市值蒸发千亿。 “既要又要”的资本逻辑: 投资者既希望Blackwell“秒天秒地”延续增长神话,又担心其量产爬坡不及预期;既渴望英","text":"我平仓了$英伟达(NVDA)$ ,英伟达2025年5月财报:一场“高烧不退”的资本狂欢与泡沫焦虑 1. “爆表”的业绩,撑不起市场的贪婪 数据炸裂但预期更高: 2025财年Q1营收260亿美元(同比+262%)、净利润148.8亿美元(同比+628%)、毛利率冲上78.4%——这组数据放在任何行业都是“核弹级”,但资本市场却已对英伟达的“超预期”习以为常。当市场预期被喂成“饕餮”,连“三位数增长”都成了“基本操作”,稍有放缓便引发恐慌。 PE高悬37倍,泡沫论甚嚣尘上: 即便股价年内涨幅超115%、市值一度登顶全球,但37倍的市盈率(PE)让市场如坐针毡。美股“七巨头”平均PE仅28倍,英伟达的估值溢价成了“薛定谔的炸弹”——既可能被AI算力刚需撑住,也可能因增速换挡瞬间崩盘。 2. Blackwell芯片:延迟的“救世主”与资本的双标 跳票三个月,需求画饼难掩供应链狼狈: Blackwell芯片原定Q2出货,却因设计缺陷和台积电封装难题推迟至Q4,黄仁勋一边高呼“需求难以置信”,一边靠Hopper芯片硬撑场子。市场嘴上说着“理解”,身体却很诚实——盘后股价暴跌8%,市值蒸发千亿。 “既要又要”的资本逻辑: 投资者既希望Blackwell“秒天秒地”延续增长神话,又担心其量产爬坡不及预期;既渴望英","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/431024547160816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":436795645526632,"gmtCreate":1747652012430,"gmtModify":1747659509345,"author":{"id":"253049595214350","authorId":"253049595214350","name":"万法隐世仙君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a609ce6b310ba764016d58d6fd052a4e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"253049595214350","authorIdStr":"253049595214350"},"themes":[],"title":"联合健康(UNH)超卖与发展前景及利空分析","htmlText":" 一、**超卖现象分析** 1. **股价暴跌与估值修复空间** 联合健康股价自2024年12月CEO枪击事件以来持续下跌,截至2025年5月,累计跌幅超50%,市值蒸发数千亿美元。当前市盈率约为15倍,低于行业平均水平,显示市场可能过度反应短期利空。机构如Raymond James认为其估值已触底,纳入“首选股票名单”,预期2025年下半年政策环境改善及业务调整可能推动反弹。 2. **机构资金动向** 尽管短期波动剧烈,机构持股比例仍高达87.86%,显示长期资本对其市场地位和整合能力的信任。部分投资者开始小仓位抄底,认为“大而不倒”属性可能带来反弹机会。 3. **技术面支撑** 股价跌至近五年低位,部分分析师(如Jim Cramer)认为400美元以下具备技术支撑,市场情绪或逐步修复。 --- 二、**核心利空因素** 1. **司法调查与法律风险** - 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