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2025-10-21
$1盎司黄金2602(1OZ2602)$
短线止盈
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2025-10-02
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2025-10-17
$微黄金2512(MGC2512)$
害怕了，走一点
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2025-10-21
$GLD 20251231 400.0 CALL$
看涨黄金
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03-07
高升这条狗
市场不信霍尔木兹海峡能恢复正常！高盛：若封锁持续五周，油价或冲上100美元
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01-15
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2025-10-21
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继续看涨黄金
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2025-10-21
$SLV 20251024 46.0 PUT$
还好期权对冲了一点，今天真是亏大了
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2025-09-19
$BLSH 20251017 60.0 CALL$
落袋为安
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2025-09-02
$GLD 20251231 350.0 CALL$
落袋为安
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>。自周末中东战争爆发以来，这条全球至关重要的能源运输水道实质上已被封锁，部分波斯湾产油国已被迫暂停石油生产。</p><p>根据高盛的市场调研，虽然美国海军的介入在理论上能够提供武力震慑，但航运业内部的避险情绪并未因此消散。由于霍尔木兹海峡水道狭窄且地缘冲突风险具有不可预测性，大量船东和国际保险运营商在评估风险后，依然对派遣船只进入该海域持谨慎观望态度。</p><p>这种心理层面的防御机制导致了即便航道在物理层面并未被完全封锁，实际的商业贸易流却近乎陷入停滞。高盛强调，若缺乏实质性的保险理赔落实和更具信服力的长期安全保障，市场对供应恢复的信心短期内难以重建。</p><p>受此信心危机影响，国际油价正处于剧烈的波动定价期。高盛已将2026年第二季度的布伦特原油价格预测上调至每桶76美元，较此前预测的66美元大幅提高，但这仍大幅低于当前全球基准布伦特原油85美元的交易价格，而WTI原油预测也同步调升至71美元。</p><p>高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特解释称，该估算基于霍尔木兹海峡油流量将在约五天内维持极低水平、随后进入为期一个月的逐步恢复期的假设。她还强调，若海峡中断期延长至五周，布伦特原油价格可能攀升至每桶100美元以上。</p><p>从更深层的宏观视角看，高盛认为市场的焦点正从“是否有护航”转向“护航是否奏效”。即便存在军事保障，海员的安全担忧、昂贵的战争险保费以及石油生产设施可能遭受的二次打击，都构成了油价上行风险的坚实支撑。相反，油价回落至60美元基准水平的前提，必须是美方的护航与保险措施能够产生立竿见影的效果，使商业油轮能够像战前一样自由通行。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410788.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，尽管美国政府近期公开承诺将部署海军力量进行护航，并试图通过政策手段为受阻油轮提供保险支持，但高盛在最新发布的能源研究报告中指出，石油市场对这些干预措施能否有效恢复航道秩序仍表现出显著的信心缺失。高盛分析师认为，目前的关键症结在于商业航运的可持续性而非单纯的军事护航高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特进一步分析称：\"考虑到油轮数量庞大，实施海军护航的可行性本身就存在疑问。\"她...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410788.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410788.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2617055105","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，尽管美国政府近期公开承诺将部署海军力量进行护航，并试图通过政策手段为受阻油轮提供保险支持，但高盛在最新发布的能源研究报告中指出，石油市场对这些干预措施能否有效恢复航道秩序仍表现出显著的信心缺失。高盛分析师认为，目前的关键症结在于商业航运的可持续性而非单纯的军事护航高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特进一步分析称：\"考虑到油轮数量庞大，实施海军护航的可行性本身就存在疑问。\"她同时强调，市场还普遍担忧护航舰艇抵御无人机袭击的能力是否足够有效。据了解，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已提出多项方案，包括由美国提供保险保障及军事护航服务，旨在促进石油和天然气油轮安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。自周末中东战争爆发以来，这条全球至关重要的能源运输水道实质上已被封锁，部分波斯湾产油国已被迫暂停石油生产。根据高盛的市场调研，虽然美国海军的介入在理论上能够提供武力震慑，但航运业内部的避险情绪并未因此消散。由于霍尔木兹海峡水道狭窄且地缘冲突风险具有不可预测性，大量船东和国际保险运营商在评估风险后，依然对派遣船只进入该海域持谨慎观望态度。这种心理层面的防御机制导致了即便航道在物理层面并未被完全封锁，实际的商业贸易流却近乎陷入停滞。高盛强调，若缺乏实质性的保险理赔落实和更具信服力的长期安全保障，市场对供应恢复的信心短期内难以重建。受此信心危机影响，国际油价正处于剧烈的波动定价期。高盛已将2026年第二季度的布伦特原油价格预测上调至每桶76美元，较此前预测的66美元大幅提高，但这仍大幅低于当前全球基准布伦特原油85美元的交易价格，而WTI原油预测也同步调升至71美元。高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特解释称，该估算基于霍尔木兹海峡油流量将在约五天内维持极低水平、随后进入为期一个月的逐步恢复期的假设。她还强调，若海峡中断期延长至五周，布伦特原油价格可能攀升至每桶100美元以上。从更深层的宏观视角看，高盛认为市场的焦点正从“是否有护航”转向“护航是否奏效”。即便存在军事保障，海员的安全担忧、昂贵的战争险保费以及石油生产设施可能遭受的二次打击，都构成了油价上行风险的坚实支撑。相反，油价回落至60美元基准水平的前提，必须是美方的护航与保险措施能够产生立竿见影的效果，使商业油轮能够像战前一样自由通行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521764502357496,"gmtCreate":1768419955577,"gmtModify":1768419959930,"author":{"id":"341086855910589","authorId":"341086855910589","name":"明明不能卖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e832a8a6387df07476d1d782124b8c","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"341086855910589","authorIdStr":"341086855910589"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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看涨黄金","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea69238877cef1bb3896e7b659dc135b","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/491687219904960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539892464021536,"gmtCreate":1772827726631,"gmtModify":1772827729204,"author":{"id":"341086855910589","authorId":"341086855910589","name":"明明不能卖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e832a8a6387df07476d1d782124b8c","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"341086855910589","idStr":"341086855910589"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"高升这条狗","listText":"高升这条狗","text":"高升这条狗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539892464021536","repostId":"2617055105","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2617055105","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772761275,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2617055105?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-06 09:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"市场不信霍尔木兹海峡能恢复正常！高盛：若封锁持续五周，油价或冲上100美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617055105","media":"智通财经","summary":"据了解，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已提出多项方案，包括由美国提供保险保障及军事护航服务，旨在促进石油和天然气油轮安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特解释称，该估算基于霍尔木兹海峡油流量将在约五天内维持极低水平、随后进入为期一个月的逐步恢复期的假设。她还强调，若海峡中断期延长至五周，布伦特原油价格可能攀升至每桶100美元以上。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，尽管美国政府近期公开承诺将部署海军力量进行护航，并试图通过政策手段为受阻油轮提供保险支持，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在最新发布的能源研究报告中指出，石油市场对这些干预措施能否有效恢复航道秩序仍表现出显著的信心缺失。高盛分析师认为，目前的关键症结在于商业航运的可持续性而非单纯的军事护航</p><p>高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特进一步分析称：\"考虑到油轮数量庞大，实施海军护航的可行性本身就存在疑问。\"她同时强调，市场还普遍担忧护航舰艇抵御无人机袭击的能力是否足够有效。</p><p>据了解，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已提出多项方案，包括由美国提供保险保障及军事护航服务，旨在促进石油和天然气油轮安全通过霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>。自周末中东战争爆发以来，这条全球至关重要的能源运输水道实质上已被封锁，部分波斯湾产油国已被迫暂停石油生产。</p><p>根据高盛的市场调研，虽然美国海军的介入在理论上能够提供武力震慑，但航运业内部的避险情绪并未因此消散。由于霍尔木兹海峡水道狭窄且地缘冲突风险具有不可预测性，大量船东和国际保险运营商在评估风险后，依然对派遣船只进入该海域持谨慎观望态度。</p><p>这种心理层面的防御机制导致了即便航道在物理层面并未被完全封锁，实际的商业贸易流却近乎陷入停滞。高盛强调，若缺乏实质性的保险理赔落实和更具信服力的长期安全保障，市场对供应恢复的信心短期内难以重建。</p><p>受此信心危机影响，国际油价正处于剧烈的波动定价期。高盛已将2026年第二季度的布伦特原油价格预测上调至每桶76美元，较此前预测的66美元大幅提高，但这仍大幅低于当前全球基准布伦特原油85美元的交易价格，而WTI原油预测也同步调升至71美元。</p><p>高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特解释称，该估算基于霍尔木兹海峡油流量将在约五天内维持极低水平、随后进入为期一个月的逐步恢复期的假设。她还强调，若海峡中断期延长至五周，布伦特原油价格可能攀升至每桶100美元以上。</p><p>从更深层的宏观视角看，高盛认为市场的焦点正从“是否有护航”转向“护航是否奏效”。即便存在军事保障，海员的安全担忧、昂贵的战争险保费以及石油生产设施可能遭受的二次打击，都构成了油价上行风险的坚实支撑。相反，油价回落至60美元基准水平的前提，必须是美方的护航与保险措施能够产生立竿见影的效果，使商业油轮能够像战前一样自由通行。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410788.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，尽管美国政府近期公开承诺将部署海军力量进行护航，并试图通过政策手段为受阻油轮提供保险支持，但高盛在最新发布的能源研究报告中指出，石油市场对这些干预措施能否有效恢复航道秩序仍表现出显著的信心缺失。高盛分析师认为，目前的关键症结在于商业航运的可持续性而非单纯的军事护航高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特进一步分析称：\"考虑到油轮数量庞大，实施海军护航的可行性本身就存在疑问。\"她...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410788.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410788.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2617055105","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，尽管美国政府近期公开承诺将部署海军力量进行护航，并试图通过政策手段为受阻油轮提供保险支持，但高盛在最新发布的能源研究报告中指出，石油市场对这些干预措施能否有效恢复航道秩序仍表现出显著的信心缺失。高盛分析师认为，目前的关键症结在于商业航运的可持续性而非单纯的军事护航高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特进一步分析称：\"考虑到油轮数量庞大，实施海军护航的可行性本身就存在疑问。\"她同时强调，市场还普遍担忧护航舰艇抵御无人机袭击的能力是否足够有效。据了解，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已提出多项方案，包括由美国提供保险保障及军事护航服务，旨在促进石油和天然气油轮安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。自周末中东战争爆发以来，这条全球至关重要的能源运输水道实质上已被封锁，部分波斯湾产油国已被迫暂停石油生产。根据高盛的市场调研，虽然美国海军的介入在理论上能够提供武力震慑，但航运业内部的避险情绪并未因此消散。由于霍尔木兹海峡水道狭窄且地缘冲突风险具有不可预测性，大量船东和国际保险运营商在评估风险后，依然对派遣船只进入该海域持谨慎观望态度。这种心理层面的防御机制导致了即便航道在物理层面并未被完全封锁，实际的商业贸易流却近乎陷入停滞。高盛强调，若缺乏实质性的保险理赔落实和更具信服力的长期安全保障，市场对供应恢复的信心短期内难以重建。受此信心危机影响，国际油价正处于剧烈的波动定价期。高盛已将2026年第二季度的布伦特原油价格预测上调至每桶76美元，较此前预测的66美元大幅提高，但这仍大幅低于当前全球基准布伦特原油85美元的交易价格，而WTI原油预测也同步调升至71美元。高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管萨曼莎·达特解释称，该估算基于霍尔木兹海峡油流量将在约五天内维持极低水平、随后进入为期一个月的逐步恢复期的假设。她还强调，若海峡中断期延长至五周，布伦特原油价格可能攀升至每桶100美元以上。从更深层的宏观视角看，高盛认为市场的焦点正从“是否有护航”转向“护航是否奏效”。即便存在军事保障，海员的安全担忧、昂贵的战争险保费以及石油生产设施可能遭受的二次打击，都构成了油价上行风险的坚实支撑。相反，油价回落至60美元基准水平的前提，必须是美方的护航与保险措施能够产生立竿见影的效果，使商业油轮能够像战前一样自由通行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521764502357496,"gmtCreate":1768419955577,"gmtModify":1768419959930,"author":{"id":"341086855910589","authorId":"341086855910589","name":"明明不能卖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e832a8a6387df07476d1d782124b8c","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"341086855910589","idStr":"341086855910589"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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