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KEINS
01:22
别侮辱纳指好吗??
KEINS
11-05 19:49
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
老二还是不行。。清仓,换英伟达吧,
KEINS
11-04
微软CEO这个烂水平,大家赶紧卖出,我已经清仓了。
现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了!微软CEO首次承认:成排的H100正在积灰,插不上电
KEINS
10-24
你在罗里吧嗦说什么?他一直就这样啊,人家只是计划计划,人家不是保证,计划遇到变化怎么就不可以了呢?计划有调整怎么就不可以了呢?人家每次虽然是有延迟,但每次说的吹的牛都完成了,你搁这儿阴阳什么呢?你搁这儿唧唧歪歪的。
特斯拉人形机器人再延期,因为双手只能用六星期
KEINS
10-10
$Reddit(RDDT)$
大家都在大跌,你到扛住大跌了,你倒行了今天。
KEINS
10-03
$谷歌A(GOOGL)$
谷歌更改规则,让ai搜索能用到的数据由100页变成10页,虽然谷歌有这个话语权,但是这种行为代表了谷歌的心虚,担心ai抢走它的搜索流量。减少广告收入。 谷歌这种行为阻挡不了ai的发展,小丑一般的行为 暂时清仓谷歌
KEINS
10-01
$Reddit(RDDT)$
真服了,一点儿利空新闻也不发,然后又一个劲儿的跌。什么啊这是
KEINS
10-01
$Reddit(RDDT)$
懵逼了,看不懂
KEINS
10-01
$Reddit(RDDT)$
这股怎么了????
KEINS
09-20
娶你骂了比的
卢伟冰:希望吸引更多苹果用户加入小米,小米手机在影像、续航、信号都比苹果有优势
KEINS
09-03
$英伟达(NVDA)$
东施效颦,amd都追不上,汝等是什么坤坤??国际笑话
KEINS
09-02
Replying to
@雁门关向东二万五千里
:特斯拉和苹果不是ai//
@雁门关向东二万五千里
:达子已经进入炒作中后期,盘子一旦大了,增长就会乏力,看看苹果,特斯拉,现在是不是增长不动了。
KEINS
09-02
笑死
英伟达的“最佳时期”似已远去,现在是属于亚洲科技股的“AI狂欢时刻”
KEINS
08-28
$寒武纪(688256)$
哈哈哈哈哈笑死
KEINS
07-25
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
怎么个意思?不是财报不好吗?财报不好涨什么,下来!
KEINS
07-16
$好市多(COST)$
怎么变得跟特斯拉似的??天天10元差距的波动???
KEINS
06-24
沙鼻
特斯拉Robotaxi服务落地提振多头信心,但规模化之路或困难重重
KEINS
06-09
笑死哈哈哈,基本面恶化都说的出口??哈哈哈,是你迪子的基本面恶化了吧??是不是快学恒大爆雷了????急眼了吧,这么攻击特斯拉哈哈哈哈 你不会以为欧洲人真敢买你的电车吧??欧洲人缺钱??买你的不安全的便宜货?????
特斯拉股价跌回2022年!特马“撕破脸”,下跌才刚刚开始?
KEINS
05-27
我早就看透了中概股的真相,他总是长着长着挺好,突然来个大跌,不是一次两次这样了,是经常性的这样
拼多多一季度营收956.7亿元低于预期,调整后净利润同比下滑45%
KEINS
05-02
天哪,小米汽车各种负面新闻,竟然股票这么涨。。。。魔幻。你们不怕就使劲买,我看看最后死几个
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ext":"别侮辱纳指好吗??","listText":"别侮辱纳指好吗??","text":"别侮辱纳指好吗??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/497365271347632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":56,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":496928208515544,"gmtCreate":1762343398652,"gmtModify":1762347737923,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a> 老二还是不行。。清仓,换英伟达吧,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a> 老二还是不行。。清仓,换英伟达吧,","text":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 老二还是不行。。清仓,换英伟达吧,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496928208515544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":496290678624400,"gmtCreate":1762187320223,"gmtModify":1762187322617,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"微软CEO这个烂水平,大家赶紧卖出,我已经清仓了。","listText":"微软CEO这个烂水平,大家赶紧卖出,我已经清仓了。","text":"微软CEO这个烂水平,大家赶紧卖出,我已经清仓了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496290678624400","repostId":"2580210551","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2580210551","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1762178700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2580210551?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-03 22:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了!微软CEO首次承认:成排的H100正在积灰,插不上电","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2580210551","media":"市场资讯","summary":"真正的瓶颈早已不是芯片,而是电力Satya刚刚透露:整个AI行业的投资逻辑都错了,市场根本没有对相关公司进行重新定价微软有机架成排的H100正在积灰,原因不是不想用,而是不能用——根本没有相应的电力基础设施来支持它们运行这意味着,所有那些根据芯片采购量和GPU数量为这些公司定价的分析师模型,从根本上就是错的。","content":"<html><body><article><p>炒股就看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会!</p><p>(来源:网易科技)</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251103234501073d15291k7k3xfufr\"/><p>真正的瓶颈早已不是芯片,而是电力</p><p>Satya刚刚透露:整个AI行业的投资逻辑都错了,市场根本没有对相关公司进行重新定价</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>有机架成排的H100正在积灰,原因不是不想用,而是不能用——根本没有相应的电力基础设施来支持它们运行</p><p>这意味着,所有那些根据芯片采购量和GPU数量为这些公司定价的分析师模型,从根本上就是错的。你正在为错误的约束条件估值。 瓶颈早已转移,而市场仍在像2023年那样交易</p><p>重写资本支出方程</p><p>这完全改写了资本支出的等式</p><p>当微软斥资500亿美元购买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>GPU时,华尔街将其誉为AI投资,并推高了两家公司的股价。但如果其中一半的芯片在货架上闲置18个月,那么投资回报的时间线就崩溃了</p><p>GPU在黑暗的机架中每多待一个季度,就意味着这个季度它不仅没有产生任何收入,同时相对于英伟达下一代产品的性能还在贬值。你等于在用零回报抵消数据中心建设成本和芯片折旧费</p><p>真正的赢家</p><p>在这场竞赛中,真正能获胜的,是那些在3-4年前就锁定了电力采购协议的玩家,那时根本没人考虑到AI推理集群需要上百兆瓦的电力</p><p>那些及早与电力公司建立合作关系,或自建发电能力的超大规模云厂商,拥有了在任何合理时间范围内都无法被复制的结构性优势</p><p>你可以在6个月内订购10万块GPU并收到货。但你无法在6个月内订购500兆瓦的电力并让它上线。这需要数年的审批、建设、并网和监管批准。</p><p>被忽视的第二重打击:加速的折旧</p><p>Satya关于不想过度购买某一代GPU的观点,是所有人忽视的第二个关键洞见</p><p>英伟达的发布周期已经从两年多压缩到几乎一年一次。这意味着今天购买的GPU,可能只有12到18个月的性能领先期,然后就会过时。</p><p>如果你不能立即部署它,你买到的就是一块在产生任何收益之前,就已经在相对未来产品贬值的<span>资产</span>。在摩尔定律还比较慢的时代,采购和部署之间的时间差成本并没有这么高昂</p><p>刷新周期的压缩还意味着,谁能最快部署,谁就能不成比例地捕获巨大价值。</p><p>如果你能在6个月内为新容量通电,而对手需要24个月,你就多出了18个月的时间来享受推理服务的定价,直到竞争对手赶上</p><p>部署速度现在直接成为芯片采购投资回报率的倍增器。这意味着拥有自有电力和地产的垂直整合玩家,能够比任何依赖第三方数据中心或公共电网连接的对手行动得更快</p><p>护城河已经改变</p><p>这彻底改变了竞争护城河的结构。旧的护城河是模型质量和算法改进。新的护城河是物理基础设施和能源准入</p><p>你可以在6个月内训练出一个更好的模型,但你无法在6个月内<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01630\">建成</a>一个通电的数据中心。这种约束会持续数年,并将在赢家和输家之间创造出持久的差距</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了!微软CEO首次承认:成排的H100正在积灰,插不上电</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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瓶颈早已转移,而市场仍在像2023年那样交易重写资本支出方程这完全改写了资本支出的等式当微软斥资500亿美元购买英伟达GPU时,华尔街将其誉为AI投资,并推高了两家公司的股价。但如果其中一半的芯片在货架上闲置18个月,那么投资回报的时间线就崩溃了GPU在黑暗的机架中每多待一个季度,就意味着这个季度它不仅没有产生任何收入,同时相对于英伟达下一代产品的性能还在贬值。你等于在用零回报抵消数据中心建设成本和芯片折旧费真正的赢家在这场竞赛中,真正能获胜的,是那些在3-4年前就锁定了电力采购协议的玩家,那时根本没人考虑到AI推理集群需要上百兆瓦的电力那些及早与电力公司建立合作关系,或自建发电能力的超大规模云厂商,拥有了在任何合理时间范围内都无法被复制的结构性优势你可以在6个月内订购10万块GPU并收到货。但你无法在6个月内订购500兆瓦的电力并让它上线。这需要数年的审批、建设、并网和监管批准。被忽视的第二重打击:加速的折旧Satya关于不想过度购买某一代GPU的观点,是所有人忽视的第二个关键洞见英伟达的发布周期已经从两年多压缩到几乎一年一次。这意味着今天购买的GPU,可能只有12到18个月的性能领先期,然后就会过时。如果你不能立即部署它,你买到的就是一块在产生任何收益之前,就已经在相对未来产品贬值的资产。在摩尔定律还比较慢的时代,采购和部署之间的时间差成本并没有这么高昂刷新周期的压缩还意味着,谁能最快部署,谁就能不成比例地捕获巨大价值。如果你能在6个月内为新容量通电,而对手需要24个月,你就多出了18个月的时间来享受推理服务的定价,直到竞争对手赶上部署速度现在直接成为芯片采购投资回报率的倍增器。这意味着拥有自有电力和地产的垂直整合玩家,能够比任何依赖第三方数据中心或公共电网连接的对手行动得更快护城河已经改变这彻底改变了竞争护城河的结构。旧的护城河是模型质量和算法改进。新的护城河是物理基础设施和能源准入你可以在6个月内训练出一个更好的模型,但你无法在6个月内建成一个通电的数据中心。这种约束会持续数年,并将在赢家和输家之间创造出持久的差距","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":492719626207952,"gmtCreate":1761314236442,"gmtModify":1761314238879,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你在罗里吧嗦说什么?他一直就这样啊,人家只是计划计划,人家不是保证,计划遇到变化怎么就不可以了呢?计划有调整怎么就不可以了呢?人家每次虽然是有延迟,但每次说的吹的牛都完成了,你搁这儿阴阳什么呢?你搁这儿唧唧歪歪的。","listText":"你在罗里吧嗦说什么?他一直就这样啊,人家只是计划计划,人家不是保证,计划遇到变化怎么就不可以了呢?计划有调整怎么就不可以了呢?人家每次虽然是有延迟,但每次说的吹的牛都完成了,你搁这儿阴阳什么呢?你搁这儿唧唧歪歪的。","text":"你在罗里吧嗦说什么?他一直就这样啊,人家只是计划计划,人家不是保证,计划遇到变化怎么就不可以了呢?计划有调整怎么就不可以了呢?人家每次虽然是有延迟,但每次说的吹的牛都完成了,你搁这儿阴阳什么呢?你搁这儿唧唧歪歪的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/492719626207952","repostId":"2577513713","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2577513713","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1761305624,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2577513713?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-24 19:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉人形机器人再延期,因为双手只能用六星期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2577513713","media":"格隆汇","summary":"格隆汇10月24日|据晚点latepost,“老马的信誉分感觉连充电宝都借不出来了。” 一位特斯拉供应链人士说。特斯拉原本计划在今年初确定三代机器人技术方案并开始量产,这家供应商能获得价值数亿美元的订单,为此他们已投入数亿元和数百人研发近三年。马斯克在昨天的三季度电话会上确认,第三代人形机器人 Optimus 的设计定型将推迟到明年一季度。今年 7 月 14 日,马斯克曾在 X 上发帖说,他刚刚离开特斯拉设计工作室,今年年底会有史诗级震撼的演示。两位供应链人士称,特斯拉原本计划在今年 11 月完成第三代 Optimus 的开发工作,并召开发布会。","content":"<html><body><article><p>格隆汇10月24日|据晚点latepost,“老马的信誉分感觉连充电宝都借不出来了。” 一位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>供应链人士说。特斯拉原本计划在今年初确定三代机器人技术方案并开始量产,这家供应商能获得价值数亿美元的订单,为此他们已投入数亿元和数百人研发近三年。马斯克在昨天的三季度电话会上确认,第三代人形机器人 Optimus 的设计定型将推迟到明年一季度。今年 7 月 14 日,马斯克曾在 X 上发帖说,他刚刚离开特斯拉设计工作室,今年年底会有史诗级震撼的演示。两位供应链人士称,特斯拉原本计划在今年 11 月完成第三代 Optimus 的开发工作,并召开发布会。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251024194725a472ab1d&s=b><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>格隆汇10月24日|据晚点latepost,“老马的信誉分感觉连充电宝都借不出来了。” 一位特斯拉供应链人士说。特斯拉原本计划在今年初确定三代机器人技术方案并开始量产,这家供应商能获得价值数亿美元的订单,为此他们已投入数亿元和数百人研发近三年。马斯克在昨天的三季度电话会上确认,第三代人形机器人 Optimus 的设计定型将推迟到明年一季度。今年 7 月 14 日,马斯克曾在 X 上发帖说,他刚刚...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251024194725a472ab1d&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-19 19:56 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025091919571795389816&s=b><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新浪科技讯 9月19日晚间消息,小米集团总裁卢伟冰今日开播,谈及小米17系列背后的故事。澎湃OS为什么花这么大精力兼容iOS生态?卢伟冰表示,是为了吸引更多苹果用户来,苹果的生态体验和护城河做的非常好,让他们直接过来是非常有难度的,希望让苹果用户在使用小米全家桶时要有很好的体验。他透露,小米14有14%的苹果用户,小米15时达到了16%,小米手机在影像、续航、信号都比苹果有优势,小米SU7也吸引了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025091919571795389816&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","AAPL":"苹果","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0472753341.HKD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH 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9月19日晚间消息,小米集团总裁卢伟冰今日开播,谈及小米17系列背后的故事。澎湃OS为什么花这么大精力兼容iOS生态?卢伟冰表示,是为了吸引更多苹果用户来,苹果的生态体验和护城河做的非常好,让他们直接过来是非常有难度的,希望让苹果用户在使用小米全家桶时要有很好的体验。他透露,小米14有14%的苹果用户,小米15时达到了16%,小米手机在影像、续航、信号都比苹果有优势,小米SU7也吸引了大量苹果用户。责任编辑:刘万里 SF014","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9,"AAPL":1.5,"MACW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":474668235436096,"gmtCreate":1756907086789,"gmtModify":1756907088114,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 东施效颦,amd都追不上,汝等是什么坤坤??国际笑话","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 东施效颦,amd都追不上,汝等是什么坤坤??国际笑话","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 东施效颦,amd都追不上,汝等是什么坤坤??国际笑话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474668235436096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":474298511102248,"gmtCreate":1756827235597,"gmtModify":1756827238213,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4092177932484180\">@雁门关向东二万五千里</a>:特斯拉和苹果不是ai//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4092177932484180\">@雁门关向东二万五千里</a>:达子已经进入炒作中后期,盘子一旦大了,增长就会乏力,看看苹果,特斯拉,现在是不是增长不动了。","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4092177932484180\">@雁门关向东二万五千里</a>:特斯拉和苹果不是ai//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4092177932484180\">@雁门关向东二万五千里</a>:达子已经进入炒作中后期,盘子一旦大了,增长就会乏力,看看苹果,特斯拉,现在是不是增长不动了。","text":"Replying to @雁门关向东二万五千里:特斯拉和苹果不是ai//@雁门关向东二万五千里:达子已经进入炒作中后期,盘子一旦大了,增长就会乏力,看看苹果,特斯拉,现在是不是增长不动了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474298511102248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":474184600957640,"gmtCreate":1756799218230,"gmtModify":1756799219902,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"笑死","listText":"笑死","text":"笑死","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474184600957640","repostId":"2564827185","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2564827185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1756785958,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2564827185?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-02 12:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达的“最佳时期”似已远去,现在是属于亚洲科技股的“AI狂欢时刻”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2564827185","media":"智通财经","summary":"亚洲AI算力板块股价狂飙之势不可阻挡与英伟达等美股市场AI算力产业链领军者的股价增长动能趋缓形成鲜明对比的是,亚洲科技股,特别是阿里巴巴等中国云计算领军者,以及中国AI算力产业链近期出现狂飙式上涨。这款芯片旨在填补英伟达AI GPU在中高端AI芯片算力市场受限后留下的空白。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>毫无疑问,市值高达4.2万亿美元的“AI芯片霸主”英伟达(NVDA.US)自2023年以来的增长最强劲同时也是最核心业务——数据中心业务营收增速已明显放缓,正是该业务部门提供的H100/H200以及Blackwell架构AI GPU为全球范围数据中心提供无比强大的AI算力基础设施。此外,来自中国市场的重大逆风与中美监管风险共同削弱了该业务大举扩张前景。</p><p>与此同时,在英伟达股价涨势面临业绩前景愈发模糊以及美股市场整体的高估值这一强大阻力而几乎停滞之际,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>等互联网巨头带动的中国AI投资热潮以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">寒武纪</a>等国内芯片产业链领军者引领的“国产芯片替代”风暴之下,中国科技股正在上演超级牛市行情。中国台湾以及日韩市场的那些横跨AI数据中心算力基础设施、消费电子端侧AI芯片与先进制程芯片制造的半导体巨头们,也在跟随这波牛市轨迹。</p><p>虽然在一些长期看涨英伟达的华尔街分析师看来,AI基础设施与高性能网络硬件业务的扩张趋势提供了令人振奋的新增长预期,但相较于英伟达所重点依赖的核心数据中心业务体量小得多。且不同于英伟达在AI芯片领域的领导者地位,广泛的AI基础设施以及高性能网络面临激烈竞争压力,目前没有绝对的市场领军者,仍然处于激烈的竞争厮杀之中。股票市场的表现也显示,在英伟达的整体业绩增速趋于温和与常态化之际,持续跑赢大盘的前景受到市场质疑。</p><p><strong>有机构高呼:属于英伟达的最好时光可能已经过去</strong></p><p>驻扎投资研究平台Seeking Alpha 的投资咨询机构JR Research近日发布的报告显示:鉴于增长常态化以及监管与执行层面的巨大风险,敦促所有投资者们谨慎考虑,因为英伟达的最佳时期可能已离我们而去(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>'s best days look well behind us)。</p><p>JR Research表示,如果投资者们一直关注英伟达股价表现,已经注意到的是回吐了2025年8月份财报公布之前的下半年大部分涨幅。因此,当我们开启9月之际,自英伟达FY2026年第二财季财报发布后,多头叙事似乎变得谨慎起来。JR Research表示,对黄仁勋及其团队而言,这某种程度上仍是“业务如常”,但毫无疑问,其最为珍贵的数据中心业务的营收增速已显著放缓。</p><p>JR Research认为,尽管中美地缘政治关系的缓和是建设性的进展,但仍应谨慎看待,尤其是英伟达以H20 AI芯片重新进入中国市场的正式化推进上遭遇了实质性障碍。将归属美国政府的15%佣金框架法制化,或可被视为程序性步骤。然而,中国方面似乎决心阻止H20轻松重返中国市场,理由是对英伟达芯片可能嵌入后门所带来的国家安全风险提出严正质疑。</p><p>一些中国企业对英伟达H20芯片的持续需求显示了CUDA生态护城河的强大粘性。然而,若地缘监管障碍持续阻碍其快速重返,该护城河或被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>、寒武纪等中国AI芯片设计领军者们建设的中国AI生态进一步削弱。因此,华尔街分析师们普遍未预期英伟达在营收口径上对华AI芯片营收能完全恢复,这也可能为本土竞争对手提供重大追赶机会。</p><p>考虑到这一点,一些分析师并不惊讶英伟达管理层试图淡化其中国业务复苏的近期积极影响,并将其排除在短期业绩指引之外。英伟达CEO黄仁勋在业绩会议上表示,中国AI芯片市场业务可以说代表着一个规模可观的500亿美元短期到中期的业绩增长机遇,进一步的市场进入延误也可能在FY2026年剩余时间里加剧英伟达的中国市场执行与创收风险。</p><p>尽管华尔街分析师们在最新业绩公布之后继续上调对于英伟达未来12个月的目标股价,但同样越来越清楚的是,那些“惊喜式超预期并大幅上调指引”的时刻以及华尔街以“翻倍的步伐”大幅上调英伟达目标股价的时刻,几乎都已成过去式。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60f0c2c4ee37cae34f1d0cd1badabb18\" tg-width=\"1341\" tg-height=\"784\"/></p><p>JR Research认为,未来一段时间并不惊讶黄仁勋再次“从魔法帽里变戏法”,试图说服我们英伟达的最佳时刻尚未到来——不仅 Blackwell系列的AI GPU集群爬坡仍在健康推进,该公司还将赌注押在万亿美元规模的AI基础设施论点上,这可能重塑所有人对于英伟达超越CUDA的全栈生态的理解,这也是多数英伟达多头坚持看好英伟达冲击5万亿美元市值的核心逻辑。</p><p>然而,事实是,尽管上调了平均目标价,华尔街分析师们并未改变对于英伟达业绩增长预期曲线的斜率向下倾斜。尽管加深布局AI高性能网络领域有望增强其多元化机会,但仅仅100亿美元的业绩运行规模相对其近1500亿美元的数据中心业务而言仍占比有限。</p><p>而且,在高性能以太网数据中心业务中,英伟达还必须与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>(AVGO.US)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">迈威尔</a>(MRVL.US)进行长期正面竞争——后两者相比于后进者英伟达拥有显著的市场份额优势,并且会积极捍卫地盘的强势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20337b7e991c26ba61cb35685ce88be9\" tg-width=\"1230\" tg-height=\"792\"/></p><p>JR Research表示,如果我们认为英伟达的远期EBITDA倍数28倍仍低于其10年期限的平均水平34.3倍,那么高信念投资者可能会认为该股似乎相对低估。然而,如果我们参考上方NVDA的长期图表所体现的“市场之智慧”,就会产生疑问:为何买盘未能延续8月份创下的高点?</p><p>有趣的是,买盘不仅未能延续,且在我们进入9月之前,8月份的大部分涨幅也已蒸发。JR Research并不感到意外,该机构表示:“如果我们考虑到未来两个财年其增长逻辑可能继续常态化的可能性,我相信市场正在敏锐地为这种可能性定价。”</p><p>“除非黄仁勋及其无可争议能力出众的团队,能够在未来五年里、围绕整体AI基建论点再度点燃‘Jensen 魔法’,否则我认为从当前位置继续期待英伟达维持优异的超额阿尔法收益,恐怕要求过高。”JR Research表示。</p><p><strong>亚洲AI算力板块股价狂飙之势不可阻挡</strong></p><p>与英伟达等美股市场AI算力产业链领军者的股价增长动能趋缓形成鲜明对比的是,亚洲科技股,特别是阿里巴巴等中国云计算领军者,以及中国AI算力产业链近期出现狂飙式上涨。在全球AI基础设施需求爆发的带动下,中国A股市场的算力基础设施板块以及中美博弈大背景下的“国产芯片替代”相关板块成为市场焦点,多只AI算力与芯片龙头股股价屡创新高,业绩亦同步大增。</p><p>随着中国互联网与云计算巨头阿里巴巴公布超出市场预期的业绩以及展现出颇具雄心壮志的“人工智能超级蓝图”,进一步点燃中国股票市场的AI投资热潮,带动今年以来获全球资金青睐的中国科技股维持强劲涨势,这股关于人工智能的超级热浪足以比肩2023年美股科技股“疯牛”行情。公布业绩之后,阿里巴巴港股大涨超17%,市值飙升超500亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f5b0476bde6464f91b456d7a8d9fee\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p>财报数据显示,阿里巴巴云计算业务营收同比增长26%,与AI云端算力相关的营收连续八个季度保持三位数同比增长,资本开支二季度增长至386亿。更为重磅的是,阿里巴巴通过旗下平头哥半导体公司研发了新一代AI推理芯片。这款芯片旨在填补英伟达AI GPU在中高端AI芯片算力市场受限后留下的空白。该芯片设计兼容英伟达的CUDA生态,并宣布将由国内芯片公司进行代工,但未透露具体芯片代工厂商。阿里巴巴还表示,将按计划推进高达3800亿元人民币的既定人工智能资本支出与投资。</p><p>阿里巴巴最新业绩以及无比强劲的未来AI支出展望,进一步助力市场对于“中国AI芯片一哥”以及“国产芯片替代”领军者寒武纪的看涨情绪。寒武纪近期可谓股价和业绩共振,凸显国产AI投资热潮的无比火热,吸引包括华尔街在内的外资机构涌向中国A股与港股市场。业绩方面,寒武纪2025年上半年营业收入28.81亿元,同比暴增4347.82%,该公司实现归母净利润10.38亿元,去年同期亏损5.30亿元。</p><p>在看好中国云计算服务商AI资本开支扩张和本土AI芯片需求激增的背景下,华尔街金融巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>时隔仅仅一周再次上调了对寒武纪的目标价。高盛在9月1日发布的最新报告中,将寒武纪12个月目标价从人民币1835元上调至2104元,上调幅度达14.7%,并维持“买入”评级。最新的目标价意味着该股较8月29日收盘价有41%的上涨空间。</p><p>此次上调紧随寒武纪公布的无比强劲2025年第二季度业绩。高盛的这份看涨报告指出,中国云服务巨头正在加速AI基础设施投资,叠加政府机构支持性的产业政策,正共同推动对本土AI芯片的需求,而寒武纪作为“国产芯片替代”领军者与AI算力产业链龙头将从中受益。此外,收入规模增长和经营效率提升也将有助于寒武纪运营成本率提高。</p><p>半导体设备领域,可谓是中国芯片产业链长期以来被美国“卡脖子”最严峻的先进制造领域。近几年,美国对于中国芯片产业链的制裁不断升级,且集中于半导体设备、原材料以及芯片制造环节。因此,为实现芯片制造领域全方位国产化,芯片制造所需的各种高端半导体设备这一基本上处于“从0到1”的初步发展领域,乃各级政府资金以及民间资金最核心聚焦领域。</p><p>近期该板块的股价涨势可谓无比强劲,正是受益于中国股票市场史无前例的“国产芯片替代”风暴。尤其是近日美国将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和SK海力士在华的企业移出了“经验证最终用户”授权名单,意味着这三大芯片巨头未来可能无法使用基于美国技术的任何制造专利、半导体设备或者半导体原材料。这相当于三星、英特尔和海力士在中国的市场份额直接就让出来了,加速利好国产替代,尤其是半导体设备国产替代的进程。</p><p>此外,半导体设备也是全球企业布局AI的热潮之下的受益板块。当前全球AI芯片需求无比旺盛,且这种劲爆需求有望持续至2027年,因此<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、三星以及英特尔等芯片制造商将全面扩大产能,加之SK海力士以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>等存储巨头扩大HBM产能,均需要大批量采购芯片制造与先进封装所需半导体设备,甚至一些核心设备需要更新换代。毕竟AI芯片拥有更高逻辑密度,更复杂电路设计,以及对设备更高的功率和精准度要求,这可能导致在光刻、刻蚀、薄膜沉积、多层互连以及热管理等环节有更高的技术要求,进而需要定制化制造和测试设备来满足这些要求。</p><p>因此半导体设备巨头们可谓手握“造芯片的命脉”,当前中国芯片产业链在原子层沉积(ALD)、化学气相沉积(CVD)、物理气相沉积(PVD)、快速热处理(RTP)、化学机械抛光(CMP)、晶圆刻蚀、离子注入等最重要的造芯环节,以及晶圆Hybrid Bonding、硅通孔(Through Silicon Via)这两大chiplet先进封装环节均迫切需要本土的半导体制造设备,加速推进国产替代进程。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>资产管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>股票基金经理奥利弗·考克斯表示,中国半导体设备商具有“卖铲人”优势——无论下游芯片厂商竞争格局如何变化,设备需求都将持续受益于产业升级以及中美博弈之下的国产芯片替代浪潮。这位管理着21亿美元资产的基金经理旗下基金在今年的业绩表现超过95%同行。</p><p>中国台湾以及日韩市场的那些横跨AI数据中心算力基础设施、消费电子端侧AI芯片与先进制程芯片制造的半导体巨头们,也在跟随这波牛市轨迹,市场认为台积电、东京电子、爱德万测试、SK海力士以及三星等半导体巨头不仅受益于AI基建热潮,还将受益于即将到带来的覆盖AI智能眼镜、智能手机以及PC的端侧AI以及呈现强劲扩张态势的新一轮芯片行业景气周期,相比之下英伟达等美国Fabless厂商们并不具备横跨多产品终端与芯片制造等多领域增长的属性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abe475eda28b403848ae34c14ef8df4f\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p>台积电股价今年大幅攀升,并于2025年7月台股市值首次突破1万亿美元里程碑。自4月的年内低点以来,台积电台股与美股ADR股价累计上涨超50%,市值跃升至超越巴菲特旗下的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦量级,位列全球市值排行榜第九位。这一史无前例的市值反映出投资者对台积电在AI浪潮中前景的高度信心:作为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、英伟达以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>等巨头们的核心芯片代工方,台积电被视为全球AI算力产业链以及端侧AI热潮中不可或缺的“芯片制造基石”。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达的“最佳时期”似已远去,现在是属于亚洲科技股的“AI狂欢时刻”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达的“最佳时期”似已远去,现在是属于亚洲科技股的“AI狂欢时刻”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-02 12:05 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1340362.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>毫无疑问,市值高达4.2万亿美元的“AI芯片霸主”英伟达(NVDA.US)自2023年以来的增长最强劲同时也是最核心业务——数据中心业务营收增速已明显放缓,正是该业务部门提供的H100/H200以及Blackwell架构AI GPU为全球范围数据中心提供无比强大的AI算力基础设施。此外,来自中国市场的重大逆风与中美监管风险共同削弱了该业务大举扩张前景。与此同时,在英伟达股价涨势面临业绩前景愈发模糊...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1340362.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"688256":"寒武纪","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1340362.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2564827185","content_text":"毫无疑问,市值高达4.2万亿美元的“AI芯片霸主”英伟达(NVDA.US)自2023年以来的增长最强劲同时也是最核心业务——数据中心业务营收增速已明显放缓,正是该业务部门提供的H100/H200以及Blackwell架构AI GPU为全球范围数据中心提供无比强大的AI算力基础设施。此外,来自中国市场的重大逆风与中美监管风险共同削弱了该业务大举扩张前景。与此同时,在英伟达股价涨势面临业绩前景愈发模糊以及美股市场整体的高估值这一强大阻力而几乎停滞之际,在阿里巴巴、腾讯等互联网巨头带动的中国AI投资热潮以及寒武纪等国内芯片产业链领军者引领的“国产芯片替代”风暴之下,中国科技股正在上演超级牛市行情。中国台湾以及日韩市场的那些横跨AI数据中心算力基础设施、消费电子端侧AI芯片与先进制程芯片制造的半导体巨头们,也在跟随这波牛市轨迹。虽然在一些长期看涨英伟达的华尔街分析师看来,AI基础设施与高性能网络硬件业务的扩张趋势提供了令人振奋的新增长预期,但相较于英伟达所重点依赖的核心数据中心业务体量小得多。且不同于英伟达在AI芯片领域的领导者地位,广泛的AI基础设施以及高性能网络面临激烈竞争压力,目前没有绝对的市场领军者,仍然处于激烈的竞争厮杀之中。股票市场的表现也显示,在英伟达的整体业绩增速趋于温和与常态化之际,持续跑赢大盘的前景受到市场质疑。有机构高呼:属于英伟达的最好时光可能已经过去驻扎投资研究平台Seeking Alpha 的投资咨询机构JR Research近日发布的报告显示:鉴于增长常态化以及监管与执行层面的巨大风险,敦促所有投资者们谨慎考虑,因为英伟达的最佳时期可能已离我们而去(Nvidia's best days look well behind us)。JR Research表示,如果投资者们一直关注英伟达股价表现,已经注意到的是回吐了2025年8月份财报公布之前的下半年大部分涨幅。因此,当我们开启9月之际,自英伟达FY2026年第二财季财报发布后,多头叙事似乎变得谨慎起来。JR Research表示,对黄仁勋及其团队而言,这某种程度上仍是“业务如常”,但毫无疑问,其最为珍贵的数据中心业务的营收增速已显著放缓。JR Research认为,尽管中美地缘政治关系的缓和是建设性的进展,但仍应谨慎看待,尤其是英伟达以H20 AI芯片重新进入中国市场的正式化推进上遭遇了实质性障碍。将归属美国政府的15%佣金框架法制化,或可被视为程序性步骤。然而,中国方面似乎决心阻止H20轻松重返中国市场,理由是对英伟达芯片可能嵌入后门所带来的国家安全风险提出严正质疑。一些中国企业对英伟达H20芯片的持续需求显示了CUDA生态护城河的强大粘性。然而,若地缘监管障碍持续阻碍其快速重返,该护城河或被阿里巴巴、寒武纪等中国AI芯片设计领军者们建设的中国AI生态进一步削弱。因此,华尔街分析师们普遍未预期英伟达在营收口径上对华AI芯片营收能完全恢复,这也可能为本土竞争对手提供重大追赶机会。考虑到这一点,一些分析师并不惊讶英伟达管理层试图淡化其中国业务复苏的近期积极影响,并将其排除在短期业绩指引之外。英伟达CEO黄仁勋在业绩会议上表示,中国AI芯片市场业务可以说代表着一个规模可观的500亿美元短期到中期的业绩增长机遇,进一步的市场进入延误也可能在FY2026年剩余时间里加剧英伟达的中国市场执行与创收风险。尽管华尔街分析师们在最新业绩公布之后继续上调对于英伟达未来12个月的目标股价,但同样越来越清楚的是,那些“惊喜式超预期并大幅上调指引”的时刻以及华尔街以“翻倍的步伐”大幅上调英伟达目标股价的时刻,几乎都已成过去式。JR Research认为,未来一段时间并不惊讶黄仁勋再次“从魔法帽里变戏法”,试图说服我们英伟达的最佳时刻尚未到来——不仅 Blackwell系列的AI GPU集群爬坡仍在健康推进,该公司还将赌注押在万亿美元规模的AI基础设施论点上,这可能重塑所有人对于英伟达超越CUDA的全栈生态的理解,这也是多数英伟达多头坚持看好英伟达冲击5万亿美元市值的核心逻辑。然而,事实是,尽管上调了平均目标价,华尔街分析师们并未改变对于英伟达业绩增长预期曲线的斜率向下倾斜。尽管加深布局AI高性能网络领域有望增强其多元化机会,但仅仅100亿美元的业绩运行规模相对其近1500亿美元的数据中心业务而言仍占比有限。而且,在高性能以太网数据中心业务中,英伟达还必须与博通(AVGO.US)和迈威尔(MRVL.US)进行长期正面竞争——后两者相比于后进者英伟达拥有显著的市场份额优势,并且会积极捍卫地盘的强势。JR Research表示,如果我们认为英伟达的远期EBITDA倍数28倍仍低于其10年期限的平均水平34.3倍,那么高信念投资者可能会认为该股似乎相对低估。然而,如果我们参考上方NVDA的长期图表所体现的“市场之智慧”,就会产生疑问:为何买盘未能延续8月份创下的高点?有趣的是,买盘不仅未能延续,且在我们进入9月之前,8月份的大部分涨幅也已蒸发。JR Research并不感到意外,该机构表示:“如果我们考虑到未来两个财年其增长逻辑可能继续常态化的可能性,我相信市场正在敏锐地为这种可能性定价。”“除非黄仁勋及其无可争议能力出众的团队,能够在未来五年里、围绕整体AI基建论点再度点燃‘Jensen 魔法’,否则我认为从当前位置继续期待英伟达维持优异的超额阿尔法收益,恐怕要求过高。”JR Research表示。亚洲AI算力板块股价狂飙之势不可阻挡与英伟达等美股市场AI算力产业链领军者的股价增长动能趋缓形成鲜明对比的是,亚洲科技股,特别是阿里巴巴等中国云计算领军者,以及中国AI算力产业链近期出现狂飙式上涨。在全球AI基础设施需求爆发的带动下,中国A股市场的算力基础设施板块以及中美博弈大背景下的“国产芯片替代”相关板块成为市场焦点,多只AI算力与芯片龙头股股价屡创新高,业绩亦同步大增。随着中国互联网与云计算巨头阿里巴巴公布超出市场预期的业绩以及展现出颇具雄心壮志的“人工智能超级蓝图”,进一步点燃中国股票市场的AI投资热潮,带动今年以来获全球资金青睐的中国科技股维持强劲涨势,这股关于人工智能的超级热浪足以比肩2023年美股科技股“疯牛”行情。公布业绩之后,阿里巴巴港股大涨超17%,市值飙升超500亿美元。财报数据显示,阿里巴巴云计算业务营收同比增长26%,与AI云端算力相关的营收连续八个季度保持三位数同比增长,资本开支二季度增长至386亿。更为重磅的是,阿里巴巴通过旗下平头哥半导体公司研发了新一代AI推理芯片。这款芯片旨在填补英伟达AI GPU在中高端AI芯片算力市场受限后留下的空白。该芯片设计兼容英伟达的CUDA生态,并宣布将由国内芯片公司进行代工,但未透露具体芯片代工厂商。阿里巴巴还表示,将按计划推进高达3800亿元人民币的既定人工智能资本支出与投资。阿里巴巴最新业绩以及无比强劲的未来AI支出展望,进一步助力市场对于“中国AI芯片一哥”以及“国产芯片替代”领军者寒武纪的看涨情绪。寒武纪近期可谓股价和业绩共振,凸显国产AI投资热潮的无比火热,吸引包括华尔街在内的外资机构涌向中国A股与港股市场。业绩方面,寒武纪2025年上半年营业收入28.81亿元,同比暴增4347.82%,该公司实现归母净利润10.38亿元,去年同期亏损5.30亿元。在看好中国云计算服务商AI资本开支扩张和本土AI芯片需求激增的背景下,华尔街金融巨头高盛时隔仅仅一周再次上调了对寒武纪的目标价。高盛在9月1日发布的最新报告中,将寒武纪12个月目标价从人民币1835元上调至2104元,上调幅度达14.7%,并维持“买入”评级。最新的目标价意味着该股较8月29日收盘价有41%的上涨空间。此次上调紧随寒武纪公布的无比强劲2025年第二季度业绩。高盛的这份看涨报告指出,中国云服务巨头正在加速AI基础设施投资,叠加政府机构支持性的产业政策,正共同推动对本土AI芯片的需求,而寒武纪作为“国产芯片替代”领军者与AI算力产业链龙头将从中受益。此外,收入规模增长和经营效率提升也将有助于寒武纪运营成本率提高。半导体设备领域,可谓是中国芯片产业链长期以来被美国“卡脖子”最严峻的先进制造领域。近几年,美国对于中国芯片产业链的制裁不断升级,且集中于半导体设备、原材料以及芯片制造环节。因此,为实现芯片制造领域全方位国产化,芯片制造所需的各种高端半导体设备这一基本上处于“从0到1”的初步发展领域,乃各级政府资金以及民间资金最核心聚焦领域。近期该板块的股价涨势可谓无比强劲,正是受益于中国股票市场史无前例的“国产芯片替代”风暴。尤其是近日美国将三星、英特尔和SK海力士在华的企业移出了“经验证最终用户”授权名单,意味着这三大芯片巨头未来可能无法使用基于美国技术的任何制造专利、半导体设备或者半导体原材料。这相当于三星、英特尔和海力士在中国的市场份额直接就让出来了,加速利好国产替代,尤其是半导体设备国产替代的进程。此外,半导体设备也是全球企业布局AI的热潮之下的受益板块。当前全球AI芯片需求无比旺盛,且这种劲爆需求有望持续至2027年,因此台积电、三星以及英特尔等芯片制造商将全面扩大产能,加之SK海力士以及美光等存储巨头扩大HBM产能,均需要大批量采购芯片制造与先进封装所需半导体设备,甚至一些核心设备需要更新换代。毕竟AI芯片拥有更高逻辑密度,更复杂电路设计,以及对设备更高的功率和精准度要求,这可能导致在光刻、刻蚀、薄膜沉积、多层互连以及热管理等环节有更高的技术要求,进而需要定制化制造和测试设备来满足这些要求。因此半导体设备巨头们可谓手握“造芯片的命脉”,当前中国芯片产业链在原子层沉积(ALD)、化学气相沉积(CVD)、物理气相沉积(PVD)、快速热处理(RTP)、化学机械抛光(CMP)、晶圆刻蚀、离子注入等最重要的造芯环节,以及晶圆Hybrid Bonding、硅通孔(Through Silicon Via)这两大chiplet先进封装环节均迫切需要本土的半导体制造设备,加速推进国产替代进程。摩根大通资产管理公司亚太股票基金经理奥利弗·考克斯表示,中国半导体设备商具有“卖铲人”优势——无论下游芯片厂商竞争格局如何变化,设备需求都将持续受益于产业升级以及中美博弈之下的国产芯片替代浪潮。这位管理着21亿美元资产的基金经理旗下基金在今年的业绩表现超过95%同行。中国台湾以及日韩市场的那些横跨AI数据中心算力基础设施、消费电子端侧AI芯片与先进制程芯片制造的半导体巨头们,也在跟随这波牛市轨迹,市场认为台积电、东京电子、爱德万测试、SK海力士以及三星等半导体巨头不仅受益于AI基建热潮,还将受益于即将到带来的覆盖AI智能眼镜、智能手机以及PC的端侧AI以及呈现强劲扩张态势的新一轮芯片行业景气周期,相比之下英伟达等美国Fabless厂商们并不具备横跨多产品终端与芯片制造等多领域增长的属性。台积电股价今年大幅攀升,并于2025年7月台股市值首次突破1万亿美元里程碑。自4月的年内低点以来,台积电台股与美股ADR股价累计上涨超50%,市值跃升至超越巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦量级,位列全球市值排行榜第九位。这一史无前例的市值反映出投资者对台积电在AI浪潮中前景的高度信心:作为苹果、英伟达以及AMD等巨头们的核心芯片代工方,台积电被视为全球AI算力产业链以及端侧AI热潮中不可或缺的“芯片制造基石”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688256":1.1,"00700":1.1,"09988":1.1,"BABA":1.1,"TCEHY":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472325136896120,"gmtCreate":1756345782928,"gmtModify":1756345784545,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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怎么变得跟特斯拉似的??天天10元差距的波动???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/456974052303176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":449519494414384,"gmtCreate":1750772376341,"gmtModify":1750772377304,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"沙鼻","listText":"沙鼻","text":"沙鼻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/449519494414384","repostId":"2545405326","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2545405326","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1750760754,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2545405326?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-24 18:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉Robotaxi服务落地提振多头信心,但规模化之路或困难重重","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2545405326","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,当地时间6月22日,$特斯拉$在美国得克萨斯州奥斯汀正式推出无人驾驶出租车Robotaxi服务,开始接送首批乘客。值得一提的是,刚落地的特斯拉Robotaxi服务仍有着诸多限制。特斯拉Robotaxi试点服务如期落地无疑提振了投资者的信心,特斯拉股价也在这一利好消息的推动下上涨了8.23%。巴克莱补充称,Robotaxi服务在起步阶段必须表现良好,才能让人们对其自动驾驶机会感到安心。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉,当地时间6月22日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)在美国得克萨斯州奥斯汀正式推出无人驾驶出租车Robotaxi服务,开始接送首批乘客。特斯拉针对此次试点服务初期投入的车队规模约为10至20辆车(部分媒体推测实际运营车辆为35辆),均基于Model Y车型改造,搭载特斯拉自研的视觉感知系统和FSD(全自动驾驶)软件。</p><p>值得一提的是,刚落地的特斯拉Robotaxi服务仍有着诸多限制。目前仅限受到特斯拉官方邀请的“早鸟用户”使用,大概有着20-30名特斯拉粉丝或者投资者以及网红。其次,主驾虽然无驾驶员,但副驾有安全员,负责在遇到紧急情况时执行手动紧急制动的操作。该服务的使用时间也被限制在早6点至午夜12点,而且在遇到恶劣天气时会停止运营,特斯拉也在免责声明中提醒,不要在紧急时刻使用Robotaxi。最后就是服务的范围,虽然是在奥斯汀市开展试运营,但仅在地理围栏限制的奥斯汀南部的约77平方公里一小部分区域运营。</p><p>特斯拉Robotaxi试点服务如期落地无疑提振了投资者的信心,特斯拉股价也在这一利好消息的推动下上涨了8.23%。</p><p>漫长征途</p><p>Robotaxi试点服务的落地对特斯拉而言并非结束,而是一次漫长征途的开始。接下来,特斯拉面临的是一项艰巨任务——实现特斯拉首席执行官马斯克的宏伟目标,在大约一年的时间内完善其FSD软件并上传至数百万辆特斯拉汽车上。</p><p>十几位行业分析师和自动驾驶技术专家在接受采访时表示,如此快速的扩张将极其困难。这些观察人士对特斯拉的前景看法各异,但一致警告称,不应轻易认为Robotaxi的部署可以如闪电般迅速。</p><p>多年来,马斯克一直表示,特斯拉将很快运营自己的自动驾驶打车服务,并将所有新旧特斯拉车辆变成可为客户赚钱的Robotaxi。然而,南卡罗来纳大学专注于自动驾驶监管的法学教授Bryant Walker Smith指出,这一目标比奥斯汀的测试“要困难几个数量级”。</p><p>一些分析师指出,特斯拉的“极速战略”实际上可能适得其反,甚至拖慢整个自动驾驶行业的进程,尤其在它破坏公众信任的情况下。特斯拉此前就因其FSD辅助驾驶系统频频陷入法律与监管困境,而FSD并非真正意义上的自动驾驶。在最近一项联邦安全调查中,调查人员正在研究FSD在多起事故——包括一些致命事故——中的作用,这些事故发生在下雨等恶劣天气下,影响了FSD对摄像头的依赖。</p><p>一些专家指出,特斯拉可能凭借某些优势超越竞争对手,包括Alphabet(GOOGL.US)旗下的Waymo。特斯拉拥有大规模制造能力,且率先实现了远程软件更新,可用于自动驾驶功能的升级。此外,与Waymo及多数竞争对手依赖雷达和激光雷达等传感器不同,特斯拉完全依赖摄像头和人工智能,这意味着特斯拉Robotaxi在成本方面更具优势。</p><p>由于特斯拉依赖人工智能,其挑战将是训练机器学习系统,让Robotaxi能够应对复杂的交通“边缘案例”。卡内基梅隆大学计算机工程教授、自动驾驶专家Philip Koopman指出,这可能需要多年时间。他表示:“看看Waymo花了多长时间,没有理由相信特斯拉会更快。”</p><p>据悉,Waymo的自动驾驶项目始于2009年,但直到2015年,其首辆原型车才首次在公共街道上行驶——地点同样在奥斯汀。此后多年,Waymo才逐步在部分城市建立了1500辆Robotaxi的车队。</p><p>Waymo前首席执行官John Krafcik认为,特斯拉在奥斯汀测试中采取的诸多防范措施表明,它对自己的技术在大规模应用中的安全性并不自信。他表示:“他们确实不该自信。目前的系统尚不够安全,与Waymo所展现出的稳健方法与明确记录的安全性相比,差距甚远。”</p><p>但一些分析师认为,特斯拉可能扩张更快,部分原因在于Waymo已经帮忙扫清了部分监管与技术障碍。市场研究公司Forrester分析师Paul Miller表示:“Waymo和其他先行者推动了监管变革,也让乘客、行人和其他道路使用者对自动驾驶车辆有了认识。”</p><p>巴克莱:关键问题是如何实现规模化</p><p>在特斯拉推出Robotaxi试点服务后,巴克莱在最新发布的一份报告中指出,该服务总体顺利,没有出现重大问题,并且在该行看来基本符合预期。巴克莱补充称,在特斯拉多头看来,这一事件是特斯拉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">新时代</a>的起点,是一个激动人心的增长路径的开端。他们认为,Robotaxi技术运行良好,扩展路径清晰,且特斯拉如今能通过Robotaxi服务实现收入是一个关键的里程碑。</p><p>不过,巴克莱强调,更重要的问题是扩展路径,这条道路将会漫长,投资者不应过于乐观。巴克莱表示,尽管Robotaxi服务的推出具有象征意义,但更值得关注的问题是特斯拉能以多快的速度扩展。简而言之,几个月之后,特斯拉到底能运营多少辆Robotaxi?它是否开始具备与Waymo和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>(UBER.US)竞争的服务规模?</p><p>据悉,特斯拉计划缓慢增加车队规模,目标是在几个月内达到1000辆Robotaxi的活跃运营,同时将地域范围扩大到奥斯汀之外。马斯克近期曾提到扩展目标城市包括旧金山、洛杉矶和圣安东尼奥。</p><p>巴克莱预计,未来焦点将集中在扩展的速度上。特斯拉多头的核心逻辑是,得益于较低的生产成本和技术上不依赖高精地图的地理围栏,Robotaxi可以迅速扩展。巴克莱预计特斯拉将定期更新扩展进展和里程碑,并需进一步说明其解决边缘案例、本地化参数、基础设施建设和监管挑战的计划。</p><p>巴克莱补充称,Robotaxi服务在起步阶段必须表现良好,才能让人们对其自动驾驶机会感到安心。由于Robotaxi将受到大量媒体关注,预计相关性能数据将较为透明,不过具体使用多少远程操控仍可能不得而知。需要注意的是,特斯拉是唯一一家仅使用摄像头实现自动驾驶的主要玩家,而竞争对手则大多在摄像头基础上还使用雷达和/或激光雷达。</p><p>此外,在特斯拉计划扩展的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300778\">新城市</a>中获得监管批准将是一个障碍。特斯拉还需要联邦批准其为Robotaxi量身定制的Cybercab(预计明年量产)——该车型没有方向盘和踏板。尽管在这方面近期已有进展,特朗普政府正在采取措施,以更容易部署不带驾驶控制装置的汽车。</p><p>最后,巴克莱认为,追赶Waymo绝非易事。Waymo已完成超过5000万英里无人驾驶、以及超过1000万次付费行程。Waymo目前在奥斯汀的运营区域也比特斯拉的初始范围更广。两者对比将是必然的,预计扩展速度将成为衡量两家公司最核心的指标。</p><p>报告显示,巴克莱对特斯拉的股票评级为“持股观望”,目标价为275美元,这一目标价较特斯拉周一收盘价低了约21%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉Robotaxi服务落地提振多头信心,但规模化之路或困难重重</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉Robotaxi服务落地提振多头信心,但规模化之路或困难重重\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-24 18:25 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1308902.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,当地时间6月22日,特斯拉(TSLA.US)在美国得克萨斯州奥斯汀正式推出无人驾驶出租车Robotaxi服务,开始接送首批乘客。特斯拉针对此次试点服务初期投入的车队规模约为10至20辆车(部分媒体推测实际运营车辆为35辆),均基于Model Y车型改造,搭载特斯拉自研的视觉感知系统和FSD(全自动驾驶)软件。值得一提的是,刚落地的特斯拉Robotaxi服务仍有着诸多限制。目前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1308902.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a882b4797947d103c6b7f3b27d6fd868","relate_stocks":{"LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) 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A"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1308902.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2545405326","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,当地时间6月22日,特斯拉(TSLA.US)在美国得克萨斯州奥斯汀正式推出无人驾驶出租车Robotaxi服务,开始接送首批乘客。特斯拉针对此次试点服务初期投入的车队规模约为10至20辆车(部分媒体推测实际运营车辆为35辆),均基于Model Y车型改造,搭载特斯拉自研的视觉感知系统和FSD(全自动驾驶)软件。值得一提的是,刚落地的特斯拉Robotaxi服务仍有着诸多限制。目前仅限受到特斯拉官方邀请的“早鸟用户”使用,大概有着20-30名特斯拉粉丝或者投资者以及网红。其次,主驾虽然无驾驶员,但副驾有安全员,负责在遇到紧急情况时执行手动紧急制动的操作。该服务的使用时间也被限制在早6点至午夜12点,而且在遇到恶劣天气时会停止运营,特斯拉也在免责声明中提醒,不要在紧急时刻使用Robotaxi。最后就是服务的范围,虽然是在奥斯汀市开展试运营,但仅在地理围栏限制的奥斯汀南部的约77平方公里一小部分区域运营。特斯拉Robotaxi试点服务如期落地无疑提振了投资者的信心,特斯拉股价也在这一利好消息的推动下上涨了8.23%。漫长征途Robotaxi试点服务的落地对特斯拉而言并非结束,而是一次漫长征途的开始。接下来,特斯拉面临的是一项艰巨任务——实现特斯拉首席执行官马斯克的宏伟目标,在大约一年的时间内完善其FSD软件并上传至数百万辆特斯拉汽车上。十几位行业分析师和自动驾驶技术专家在接受采访时表示,如此快速的扩张将极其困难。这些观察人士对特斯拉的前景看法各异,但一致警告称,不应轻易认为Robotaxi的部署可以如闪电般迅速。多年来,马斯克一直表示,特斯拉将很快运营自己的自动驾驶打车服务,并将所有新旧特斯拉车辆变成可为客户赚钱的Robotaxi。然而,南卡罗来纳大学专注于自动驾驶监管的法学教授Bryant Walker Smith指出,这一目标比奥斯汀的测试“要困难几个数量级”。一些分析师指出,特斯拉的“极速战略”实际上可能适得其反,甚至拖慢整个自动驾驶行业的进程,尤其在它破坏公众信任的情况下。特斯拉此前就因其FSD辅助驾驶系统频频陷入法律与监管困境,而FSD并非真正意义上的自动驾驶。在最近一项联邦安全调查中,调查人员正在研究FSD在多起事故——包括一些致命事故——中的作用,这些事故发生在下雨等恶劣天气下,影响了FSD对摄像头的依赖。一些专家指出,特斯拉可能凭借某些优势超越竞争对手,包括Alphabet(GOOGL.US)旗下的Waymo。特斯拉拥有大规模制造能力,且率先实现了远程软件更新,可用于自动驾驶功能的升级。此外,与Waymo及多数竞争对手依赖雷达和激光雷达等传感器不同,特斯拉完全依赖摄像头和人工智能,这意味着特斯拉Robotaxi在成本方面更具优势。由于特斯拉依赖人工智能,其挑战将是训练机器学习系统,让Robotaxi能够应对复杂的交通“边缘案例”。卡内基梅隆大学计算机工程教授、自动驾驶专家Philip Koopman指出,这可能需要多年时间。他表示:“看看Waymo花了多长时间,没有理由相信特斯拉会更快。”据悉,Waymo的自动驾驶项目始于2009年,但直到2015年,其首辆原型车才首次在公共街道上行驶——地点同样在奥斯汀。此后多年,Waymo才逐步在部分城市建立了1500辆Robotaxi的车队。Waymo前首席执行官John Krafcik认为,特斯拉在奥斯汀测试中采取的诸多防范措施表明,它对自己的技术在大规模应用中的安全性并不自信。他表示:“他们确实不该自信。目前的系统尚不够安全,与Waymo所展现出的稳健方法与明确记录的安全性相比,差距甚远。”但一些分析师认为,特斯拉可能扩张更快,部分原因在于Waymo已经帮忙扫清了部分监管与技术障碍。市场研究公司Forrester分析师Paul Miller表示:“Waymo和其他先行者推动了监管变革,也让乘客、行人和其他道路使用者对自动驾驶车辆有了认识。”巴克莱:关键问题是如何实现规模化在特斯拉推出Robotaxi试点服务后,巴克莱在最新发布的一份报告中指出,该服务总体顺利,没有出现重大问题,并且在该行看来基本符合预期。巴克莱补充称,在特斯拉多头看来,这一事件是特斯拉新时代的起点,是一个激动人心的增长路径的开端。他们认为,Robotaxi技术运行良好,扩展路径清晰,且特斯拉如今能通过Robotaxi服务实现收入是一个关键的里程碑。不过,巴克莱强调,更重要的问题是扩展路径,这条道路将会漫长,投资者不应过于乐观。巴克莱表示,尽管Robotaxi服务的推出具有象征意义,但更值得关注的问题是特斯拉能以多快的速度扩展。简而言之,几个月之后,特斯拉到底能运营多少辆Robotaxi?它是否开始具备与Waymo和优步(UBER.US)竞争的服务规模?据悉,特斯拉计划缓慢增加车队规模,目标是在几个月内达到1000辆Robotaxi的活跃运营,同时将地域范围扩大到奥斯汀之外。马斯克近期曾提到扩展目标城市包括旧金山、洛杉矶和圣安东尼奥。巴克莱预计,未来焦点将集中在扩展的速度上。特斯拉多头的核心逻辑是,得益于较低的生产成本和技术上不依赖高精地图的地理围栏,Robotaxi可以迅速扩展。巴克莱预计特斯拉将定期更新扩展进展和里程碑,并需进一步说明其解决边缘案例、本地化参数、基础设施建设和监管挑战的计划。巴克莱补充称,Robotaxi服务在起步阶段必须表现良好,才能让人们对其自动驾驶机会感到安心。由于Robotaxi将受到大量媒体关注,预计相关性能数据将较为透明,不过具体使用多少远程操控仍可能不得而知。需要注意的是,特斯拉是唯一一家仅使用摄像头实现自动驾驶的主要玩家,而竞争对手则大多在摄像头基础上还使用雷达和/或激光雷达。此外,在特斯拉计划扩展的新城市中获得监管批准将是一个障碍。特斯拉还需要联邦批准其为Robotaxi量身定制的Cybercab(预计明年量产)——该车型没有方向盘和踏板。尽管在这方面近期已有进展,特朗普政府正在采取措施,以更容易部署不带驾驶控制装置的汽车。最后,巴克莱认为,追赶Waymo绝非易事。Waymo已完成超过5000万英里无人驾驶、以及超过1000万次付费行程。Waymo目前在奥斯汀的运营区域也比特斯拉的初始范围更广。两者对比将是必然的,预计扩展速度将成为衡量两家公司最核心的指标。报告显示,巴克莱对特斯拉的股票评级为“持股观望”,目标价为275美元,这一目标价较特斯拉周一收盘价低了约21%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":444231266873856,"gmtCreate":1749476712311,"gmtModify":1749476714640,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"笑死哈哈哈,基本面恶化都说的出口??哈哈哈,是你迪子的基本面恶化了吧??是不是快学恒大爆雷了????急眼了吧,这么攻击特斯拉哈哈哈哈 你不会以为欧洲人真敢买你的电车吧??欧洲人缺钱??买你的不安全的便宜货?????","listText":"笑死哈哈哈,基本面恶化都说的出口??哈哈哈,是你迪子的基本面恶化了吧??是不是快学恒大爆雷了????急眼了吧,这么攻击特斯拉哈哈哈哈 你不会以为欧洲人真敢买你的电车吧??欧洲人缺钱??买你的不安全的便宜货?????","text":"笑死哈哈哈,基本面恶化都说的出口??哈哈哈,是你迪子的基本面恶化了吧??是不是快学恒大爆雷了????急眼了吧,这么攻击特斯拉哈哈哈哈 你不会以为欧洲人真敢买你的电车吧??欧洲人缺钱??买你的不安全的便宜货?????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/444231266873856","repostId":"2542381358","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2542381358","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1749473040,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2542381358?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-09 20:44","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉股价跌回2022年!特马“撕破脸”,下跌才刚刚开始?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2542381358","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“特马”互撕让特斯拉摇摇欲坠,上周四14%的暴跌使股价已基本回到2022年的水平,彻底抹去了马斯克政治投资带来的全部收益。在基本面恶化、政治红利消失、党派消费分化下,华尔街罕见将特斯拉从\"跑赢大盘\"下调至\"中性\"评级。周一美股盘前,特斯拉再跌2.28%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>“特马”互撕让特斯拉摇摇欲坠,上周四14%的暴跌使股价已基本回到2022年的水平,彻底抹去了马斯克政治投资带来的全部收益。在基本面恶化、政治红利消失、党派消费分化下,华尔街罕见将特斯拉从"跑赢大盘"下调至"中性"评级。 </p></blockquote><p>当政治裂痕开始撕裂商业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00776\">帝国</a>的根基时,华尔街的耐心也走到了尽头。</p><p>自马斯克4月底宣布将退出DOGE后,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价曾飙升近45%。但上周四“特马”的"互撕大战"让这一切化为乌有——特斯拉单日暴跌14%,尽管周五略有回升,<strong>但股价已基本回到2022年的水平,彻底抹去了马斯克政治投资带来的全部收益。</strong></p><p>在政治庇护消失、基本面恶化、政策环境转向等多重压力下,分析师们开始下调特斯拉销售预期。上周,华尔街见闻提及,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>将特斯拉二季度交付预期从41万辆大幅下调至36.5万辆,远低于共识预期的41.7万辆。长期前景同样黯淡,高盛大幅下调了特斯拉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600532\">未来</a>三年的交付预期。</p><p>Baird Equity Research周一罕见地将特斯拉从"跑赢大盘"下调至"中性"评级,直指这家电动车巨头正面临"太多战线上的太多不确定性"。</p><p>在政治不确定性、基本面压力和估值泡沫三重夹击下,特斯拉的短期表现恐怕难言乐观。而长期来看,上周的暴跌或许只是这场调整的序幕。周一美股盘前,特斯拉一度跌超3%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/094dee5609d0763fdc12c258e547e7c6\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"531\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3827171415\">特斯拉遭华尔街降级,政治风险成为新变量</h2><p>Baird分析师Ben Kallo和Davis Sunderland的降级决定并非孤立事件。<strong>在18位华尔街分析师中,目前仅有10位给予买入评级,4位持有,4位卖出。</strong>该机构维持320美元的目标价,而特斯拉股价周五收于295美元,今年已累计下跌26%。</p><p>分析师指出,尽管特斯拉股价自4月8日触及2025年低点后已反弹33%,但这轮涨势主要依赖于对更便宜车型和即将于6月12日在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出的robotuxi服务的预期炒作:</p><blockquote><p>"<strong>我们认为马斯克关于robotaxi快速扩张的言论过于乐观</strong>,这种兴奋情绪已经被计入股价。"</p></blockquote><p>最令Baird分析师担忧的是马斯克与特朗普总统关系的急剧恶化。分析认为,周四的大跌背后,市场反映出三种相互关联的担忧。</p><p><strong>政策冲击首当其冲</strong>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>近日认为,称特朗普的预算法案可能让特斯拉运营收益减半。他们估算,消费者电动车税收抵免的终结将带来12亿美元损失,碳税抵免的取消则将造成20亿美元冲击。随着特朗普和马斯克关系恶化,马斯克说服共和党修改法案的可能性微乎其微。</p><p><strong>政治红利彻底消失</strong>。在上周之前,马斯克的其他公司似乎都从其政府工作中获益:X的债务销售<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000606\">顺利</a>,SpaceX和Starlink获得各种优惠。特斯拉投资者可能也曾期待类似待遇,但现在这种可能性已不复存在。</p><p><strong>党派消费出现分化</strong>。TD Cowen根据各县政治倾向对特斯拉美国销售进行的分析显示,自特朗普-马斯克合作开始以来,红色县份的销售有所回升并占据更大份额,而蓝色县份的销售则有所下降。</p><p>TD Cowen的Itay Michaeli及其同事指出,如果所有红色县份都能达到德克萨斯州红色县份的电动车渗透率水平(该州第一季度出现大幅增长),今年电动车销量将跳增39%。但随着马斯克站到特朗普的对立面,共和党人对电动车——特别是特斯拉电动车的热情可能会减退。</p><h2 id=\"id_2662899989\">基本面恶化雪上加霜,华尔街信心动摇</h2><p>政治风波只是特斯拉困境的一个缩影。2025年对这家电动车制造商而言可谓多事之秋:欧洲销售疲软,许多买家因马斯克的政治立场而抵制特斯拉;在第二大市场中国,公司面临日益激烈的竞争压力。</p><p><strong>分析师们纷纷下调特斯拉销售预期,目前预测今年年底和2026年将出现更急剧的下滑</strong>。上周,高盛将特斯拉二季度交付预期从41万辆大幅下调至36.5万辆,远低于共识预期的41.7万辆。长期前景同样黯淡,高盛大幅下调了特斯拉未来三年的交付预期。随着销量下降,毛利率不断受到侵蚀,预期还将进一步恶化。</p><p>特斯拉其他业务板块同样障碍重重:高利润率的电池业务受到关税冲击,而robotaxi车队正落后于Waymo等竞争对手。</p><p>Baird分析师同时下调了2026年交付预期,以反映电动车税收抵免取消的影响。尽管马斯克承诺明年下半年将有数十万辆robotaxi上路,<strong>但Baird预计实际数量仅为6000辆。</strong>分析师承认,在这一领域的存在可能比实际投放数量更重要,但认为特斯拉面临的业务难度更大,盈利能力可能低于投资者预期。</p><h2 id=\"id_973736577\">乐观预期犹存,但短期阵痛难免</h2><p>尽管分析师预期大多在下调,但仍有相对乐观的评估存在。</p><p>Wolfe Research的Emmanuel Rosner认为,<strong>预算法案的冲击可能不如摩根大通预测的那么严重。</strong>他的分析包括:</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>特斯拉的美国关税税率实际为零,低于竞争对手2000-6000美元以上的水平,形成定价保护伞;</p></li><li><p>管理层计划推出平价产品线,在规模化下可能带来健康利润率;</p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000996\">中期</a>来看,随着联邦和州排放<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600302\">标准</a>放松,一些汽车制造商将不太愿意仅为合规目的而推广电动车,从而改善电动车定价环境。</p></li><li><p>Kallo和Sunderland仍对特斯拉的长期前景保持乐观,称其仍是"核心持仓",在robotaxi和机器人技术方面拥有"超常规机会"。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p>然而,在政治不确定性、基本面压力和估值泡沫三重夹击下,特斯拉的短期表现恐怕难言乐观。当商业天才与政治强人的蜜月期走向终结时,市场正在重新审视这家公司的真实价值——而这个过程,可能比投资者想象的更加痛苦。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉股价跌回2022年!特马“撕破脸”,下跌才刚刚开始?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉股价跌回2022年!特马“撕破脸”,下跌才刚刚开始?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-09 20:44 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3748761><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“特马”互撕让特斯拉摇摇欲坠,上周四14%的暴跌使股价已基本回到2022年的水平,彻底抹去了马斯克政治投资带来的全部收益。在基本面恶化、政治红利消失、党派消费分化下,华尔街罕见将特斯拉从\"跑赢大盘\"下调至\"中性\"评级。 当政治裂痕开始撕裂商业帝国的根基时,华尔街的耐心也走到了尽头。自马斯克4月底宣布将退出DOGE后,特斯拉股价曾飙升近45%。但上周四“特马”的\"互撕大战\"让这一切化为乌有——特斯拉...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3748761\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e119bfaf62ef5472764b7358e04d7f00","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON 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GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3748761","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2542381358","content_text":"“特马”互撕让特斯拉摇摇欲坠,上周四14%的暴跌使股价已基本回到2022年的水平,彻底抹去了马斯克政治投资带来的全部收益。在基本面恶化、政治红利消失、党派消费分化下,华尔街罕见将特斯拉从\"跑赢大盘\"下调至\"中性\"评级。 当政治裂痕开始撕裂商业帝国的根基时,华尔街的耐心也走到了尽头。自马斯克4月底宣布将退出DOGE后,特斯拉股价曾飙升近45%。但上周四“特马”的\"互撕大战\"让这一切化为乌有——特斯拉单日暴跌14%,尽管周五略有回升,但股价已基本回到2022年的水平,彻底抹去了马斯克政治投资带来的全部收益。在政治庇护消失、基本面恶化、政策环境转向等多重压力下,分析师们开始下调特斯拉销售预期。上周,华尔街见闻提及,高盛将特斯拉二季度交付预期从41万辆大幅下调至36.5万辆,远低于共识预期的41.7万辆。长期前景同样黯淡,高盛大幅下调了特斯拉未来三年的交付预期。Baird Equity Research周一罕见地将特斯拉从\"跑赢大盘\"下调至\"中性\"评级,直指这家电动车巨头正面临\"太多战线上的太多不确定性\"。在政治不确定性、基本面压力和估值泡沫三重夹击下,特斯拉的短期表现恐怕难言乐观。而长期来看,上周的暴跌或许只是这场调整的序幕。周一美股盘前,特斯拉一度跌超3%。特斯拉遭华尔街降级,政治风险成为新变量Baird分析师Ben Kallo和Davis Sunderland的降级决定并非孤立事件。在18位华尔街分析师中,目前仅有10位给予买入评级,4位持有,4位卖出。该机构维持320美元的目标价,而特斯拉股价周五收于295美元,今年已累计下跌26%。分析师指出,尽管特斯拉股价自4月8日触及2025年低点后已反弹33%,但这轮涨势主要依赖于对更便宜车型和即将于6月12日在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出的robotuxi服务的预期炒作:\"我们认为马斯克关于robotaxi快速扩张的言论过于乐观,这种兴奋情绪已经被计入股价。\"最令Baird分析师担忧的是马斯克与特朗普总统关系的急剧恶化。分析认为,周四的大跌背后,市场反映出三种相互关联的担忧。政策冲击首当其冲。摩根大通近日认为,称特朗普的预算法案可能让特斯拉运营收益减半。他们估算,消费者电动车税收抵免的终结将带来12亿美元损失,碳税抵免的取消则将造成20亿美元冲击。随着特朗普和马斯克关系恶化,马斯克说服共和党修改法案的可能性微乎其微。政治红利彻底消失。在上周之前,马斯克的其他公司似乎都从其政府工作中获益:X的债务销售顺利,SpaceX和Starlink获得各种优惠。特斯拉投资者可能也曾期待类似待遇,但现在这种可能性已不复存在。党派消费出现分化。TD Cowen根据各县政治倾向对特斯拉美国销售进行的分析显示,自特朗普-马斯克合作开始以来,红色县份的销售有所回升并占据更大份额,而蓝色县份的销售则有所下降。TD Cowen的Itay Michaeli及其同事指出,如果所有红色县份都能达到德克萨斯州红色县份的电动车渗透率水平(该州第一季度出现大幅增长),今年电动车销量将跳增39%。但随着马斯克站到特朗普的对立面,共和党人对电动车——特别是特斯拉电动车的热情可能会减退。基本面恶化雪上加霜,华尔街信心动摇政治风波只是特斯拉困境的一个缩影。2025年对这家电动车制造商而言可谓多事之秋:欧洲销售疲软,许多买家因马斯克的政治立场而抵制特斯拉;在第二大市场中国,公司面临日益激烈的竞争压力。分析师们纷纷下调特斯拉销售预期,目前预测今年年底和2026年将出现更急剧的下滑。上周,高盛将特斯拉二季度交付预期从41万辆大幅下调至36.5万辆,远低于共识预期的41.7万辆。长期前景同样黯淡,高盛大幅下调了特斯拉未来三年的交付预期。随着销量下降,毛利率不断受到侵蚀,预期还将进一步恶化。特斯拉其他业务板块同样障碍重重:高利润率的电池业务受到关税冲击,而robotaxi车队正落后于Waymo等竞争对手。Baird分析师同时下调了2026年交付预期,以反映电动车税收抵免取消的影响。尽管马斯克承诺明年下半年将有数十万辆robotaxi上路,但Baird预计实际数量仅为6000辆。分析师承认,在这一领域的存在可能比实际投放数量更重要,但认为特斯拉面临的业务难度更大,盈利能力可能低于投资者预期。乐观预期犹存,但短期阵痛难免尽管分析师预期大多在下调,但仍有相对乐观的评估存在。Wolfe Research的Emmanuel Rosner认为,预算法案的冲击可能不如摩根大通预测的那么严重。他的分析包括:特斯拉的美国关税税率实际为零,低于竞争对手2000-6000美元以上的水平,形成定价保护伞;管理层计划推出平价产品线,在规模化下可能带来健康利润率;中期来看,随着联邦和州排放标准放松,一些汽车制造商将不太愿意仅为合规目的而推广电动车,从而改善电动车定价环境。Kallo和Sunderland仍对特斯拉的长期前景保持乐观,称其仍是\"核心持仓\",在robotaxi和机器人技术方面拥有\"超常规机会\"。然而,在政治不确定性、基本面压力和估值泡沫三重夹击下,特斯拉的短期表现恐怕难言乐观。当商业天才与政治强人的蜜月期走向终结时,市场正在重新审视这家公司的真实价值——而这个过程,可能比投资者想象的更加痛苦。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":439581122740760,"gmtCreate":1748347714946,"gmtModify":1748347716914,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我早就看透了中概股的真相,他总是长着长着挺好,突然来个大跌,不是一次两次这样了,是经常性的这样","listText":"我早就看透了中概股的真相,他总是长着长着挺好,突然来个大跌,不是一次两次这样了,是经常性的这样","text":"我早就看透了中概股的真相,他总是长着长着挺好,突然来个大跌,不是一次两次这样了,是经常性的这样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/439581122740760","repostId":"1152265733","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152265733","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1748341892,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152265733?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-27 18:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拼多多一季度营收956.7亿元低于预期,调整后净利润同比下滑45%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152265733","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"调整后每ADS收益 11.41元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">拼多多2025年一季度总营收为956.722亿元(约合131.840亿美元),同比增长10%,预估1,016亿元。</p><p>一季度归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为147.418亿元,同比下滑47%。</p><p>不按美国通用会计准则,一季度归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为169.16亿元,同比下滑45%,预估278.8亿元。</p><p>一季度调整后每ADS收益11.41元,预估19.11元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">来自在线营销服务及其他服务的营收为487.222亿元(约合67.141亿美元),同比增长15%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">来自交易服务的营收为469.500亿元(约合64.699亿美元),同比增长6%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed1b7f115fa95881444d0c199764d8b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1120\" tg-height=\"640\"/></p><p><strong>解读</strong></p><p>拼多多已经连续多个季度增速放缓,这主要源于拼多多持续加大对高质量发展战略的投入,今年以来,拼多多将“百亿减免”等惠商举措升级为“千亿扶持”,继续通过真金白银反哺产业生态。</p><p>“过去这个季度,外部环境的变化给商家带来了新挑战。在这个关键时刻,我们发挥平台企业的社会效能和责任担当,推出了‘千亿扶持’惠商新战略,坚定护航商家穿越周期。”拼多多集团执行董事、联席CEO赵佳臻表示,我们要求公司上下力出一孔,全面投入这一新战略,优先保证用户和商家的利益,努力为商家提供更多确定性,助推产业平稳转型。</p><p>“今年初始,我们预见到商家群体将会进一步承压,同时也看到了高质量发展的长远价值,管理层下定决心,做出了‘千亿扶持’的战略决定。”拼多多集团董事长、联席CEO陈磊表示,<strong>这不是一句空喊的口号,更是真金白银的投入。当下的市场在加速变化,平台要敢于牺牲短期业绩,助力商家度过短期波动。</strong></p><p><strong>行情</strong></p><p>拼多多盘前股价直线跳水,跌幅持续扩大,截至发稿跌超15%!</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88d8f5fe1cc305dbf9511afe1bbeb7d1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1381\" tg-height=\"527\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拼多多一季度营收956.7亿元低于预期,调整后净利润同比下滑45%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拼多多一季度营收956.7亿元低于预期,调整后净利润同比下滑45%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-27 18:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">拼多多2025年一季度总营收为956.722亿元(约合131.840亿美元),同比增长10%,预估1,016亿元。</p><p>一季度归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为147.418亿元,同比下滑47%。</p><p>不按美国通用会计准则,一季度归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为169.16亿元,同比下滑45%,预估278.8亿元。</p><p>一季度调整后每ADS收益11.41元,预估19.11元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">来自在线营销服务及其他服务的营收为487.222亿元(约合67.141亿美元),同比增长15%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">来自交易服务的营收为469.500亿元(约合64.699亿美元),同比增长6%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed1b7f115fa95881444d0c199764d8b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1120\" tg-height=\"640\"/></p><p><strong>解读</strong></p><p>拼多多已经连续多个季度增速放缓,这主要源于拼多多持续加大对高质量发展战略的投入,今年以来,拼多多将“百亿减免”等惠商举措升级为“千亿扶持”,继续通过真金白银反哺产业生态。</p><p>“过去这个季度,外部环境的变化给商家带来了新挑战。在这个关键时刻,我们发挥平台企业的社会效能和责任担当,推出了‘千亿扶持’惠商新战略,坚定护航商家穿越周期。”拼多多集团执行董事、联席CEO赵佳臻表示,我们要求公司上下力出一孔,全面投入这一新战略,优先保证用户和商家的利益,努力为商家提供更多确定性,助推产业平稳转型。</p><p>“今年初始,我们预见到商家群体将会进一步承压,同时也看到了高质量发展的长远价值,管理层下定决心,做出了‘千亿扶持’的战略决定。”拼多多集团董事长、联席CEO陈磊表示,<strong>这不是一句空喊的口号,更是真金白银的投入。当下的市场在加速变化,平台要敢于牺牲短期业绩,助力商家度过短期波动。</strong></p><p><strong>行情</strong></p><p>拼多多盘前股价直线跳水,跌幅持续扩大,截至发稿跌超15%!</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88d8f5fe1cc305dbf9511afe1bbeb7d1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1381\" tg-height=\"527\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152265733","content_text":"拼多多2025年一季度总营收为956.722亿元(约合131.840亿美元),同比增长10%,预估1,016亿元。一季度归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为147.418亿元,同比下滑47%。不按美国通用会计准则,一季度归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为169.16亿元,同比下滑45%,预估278.8亿元。一季度调整后每ADS收益11.41元,预估19.11元。来自在线营销服务及其他服务的营收为487.222亿元(约合67.141亿美元),同比增长15%。来自交易服务的营收为469.500亿元(约合64.699亿美元),同比增长6%。解读拼多多已经连续多个季度增速放缓,这主要源于拼多多持续加大对高质量发展战略的投入,今年以来,拼多多将“百亿减免”等惠商举措升级为“千亿扶持”,继续通过真金白银反哺产业生态。“过去这个季度,外部环境的变化给商家带来了新挑战。在这个关键时刻,我们发挥平台企业的社会效能和责任担当,推出了‘千亿扶持’惠商新战略,坚定护航商家穿越周期。”拼多多集团执行董事、联席CEO赵佳臻表示,我们要求公司上下力出一孔,全面投入这一新战略,优先保证用户和商家的利益,努力为商家提供更多确定性,助推产业平稳转型。“今年初始,我们预见到商家群体将会进一步承压,同时也看到了高质量发展的长远价值,管理层下定决心,做出了‘千亿扶持’的战略决定。”拼多多集团董事长、联席CEO陈磊表示,这不是一句空喊的口号,更是真金白银的投入。当下的市场在加速变化,平台要敢于牺牲短期业绩,助力商家度过短期波动。行情拼多多盘前股价直线跳水,跌幅持续扩大,截至发稿跌超15%!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccbee84d06c97c8ea354bff2e5c20b6d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3498680662745699","authorIdStr":"3498680662745699"},"content":"看得见的手宏观调控,中概股前几大股东都是国资","text":"看得见的手宏观调控,中概股前几大股东都是国资","html":"看得见的手宏观调控,中概股前几大股东都是国资"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430717345423464,"gmtCreate":1746177295736,"gmtModify":1746234004152,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"天哪,小米汽车各种负面新闻,竟然股票这么涨。。。。魔幻。你们不怕就使劲买,我看看最后死几个","listText":"天哪,小米汽车各种负面新闻,竟然股票这么涨。。。。魔幻。你们不怕就使劲买,我看看最后死几个","text":"天哪,小米汽车各种负面新闻,竟然股票这么涨。。。。魔幻。你们不怕就使劲买,我看看最后死几个","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430717345423464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573818931800493","authorId":"3573818931800493","name":"小肥狼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e84208dd37da6774cf295955acec8fc","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3573818931800493","authorIdStr":"3573818931800493"},"content":"长期看跌 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涨了什么牛都能吹起来","html":"跌了什么分析都能出来 涨了什么牛都能吹起来"},{"author":{"id":"3494420044734025","authorId":"3494420044734025","name":"Lady_Susu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7655df6b0f443f50fb6475e358d661c0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3494420044734025","authorIdStr":"3494420044734025"},"content":"那个特价版我也不是很懂,有人下载吗[捂脸]","text":"那个特价版我也不是很懂,有人下载吗[捂脸]","html":"那个特价版我也不是很懂,有人下载吗[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}