james duan的个人主页 - 老虎社区

james duan

james duan

年少时亲手射出的子弹多年后猛地一回头正中眉心

IP属地：广东

71关注

351粉丝

9主题

0勋章

02:11

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 要回调了

09-23 23:20

螺旋升天

全是套路？英伟达、OpenAI、甲骨文的万亿“三角游戏”

09-23 21:40

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 我房子都卖了你快涨啊

09-23 01:08

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这也太他妈疯狂了吧

09-18

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 卖房梭哈

09-16

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 卖房梭哈

09-11

持续加仓年底必创新高

09-10

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 冲吧股王

09-10

‌$苹果(AAPL)$ ‌gg 没有任何升级就AIR有点亮眼大部分功能都是升级了个寂寞

09-09

阿里巴巴要起飞了 AI 业务越来越强了

09-08

‌$美国超微公司(AMD)$ AMD 我恨你‌

09-08

‌$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 太弱了感觉又要熊市了

09-08

‌$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这轮下跌应该够了把

09-06

‌$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 完蛋要亏爆仓了房子抵押出去了

09-05

‌$美国超微公司(AMD)$ ‌发生了什么

09-05

Replying to @lucky 吼吼:A股的庄家思维//@lucky 吼吼:这个就是故意打压，哪有这么恶意做庄的，FIG已经很好了，各方面都涨很多，分析师就是垃圾，故意搞的，让小散套牢，然后割肉离场！

09-05

‌$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 卖房梭哈 10倍股 amd被低估太严重了

09-05

又是博通财报拉起大盘

博通Q3 AI芯片收入超预期增63%，神秘新客户下单百亿，料下财年AI前景“大幅”改善

09-04

不可能企业没有盈利

Strategy或成标普500指数成份股中首家以比特币为核心的企业

09-04

降价会被国内疯抢

英伟达拟在中国推新AI芯片，价格或为H20芯片两倍

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>宣布，将向人工智能公司OpenAI进行最高达1000亿美元（约合人民币7112.7亿）的战略投资，双方将合作建设大规模人工智能数据中心及其他基础设施。</p><p>受此消息提振，英伟达股价当日创下历史新高。</p><p>知情人士向彭博社透露称，这笔资金将分阶段到位，首笔100亿美元将在协议签署时到位。英伟达将以现金形式进行投资，并获得OpenAI的股权作为交易的一部分。后续，随着每一吉瓦算力的部署，英伟达的投资金额将逐步追加。OpenAI还可利用这笔资金购买英伟达的芯片。</p><p>这一战略合作的背后，是一系列高规格商业协议的联动。至此，OpenAI、英伟达与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>（Oracle）构成的“ONO”三方联盟正式成型，一个围绕“大模型—云基建—算力芯片”的资本链条已初见雏形。</p><p>这一合作的起点是今年6月。作为其“星际之门”（Stargate）计划的重要组成部分，OpenAI与甲骨文签订了一份价值高达3000亿美元的云服务合同，期限约五年。根据协议，OpenAI将从2027年开始每年向甲骨文支付约600亿美元，以获取其云算力服务。此外，两家公司还计划合作建设一个总容量为5吉瓦的数据中心。</p><p>算力需求的激增，无疑也将带来基础硬件的庞大需求，而英伟达的正式加入，成为整个生态的关键一环。根据协议，OpenAI将利用英伟达提供的资金，建设并部署至少10吉瓦（GW）的 AI 数据中心，用于训练和运行下一代大模型。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在接受CNBC采访时表示，10吉瓦的算力相当于400万至500万块图形处理器（GPU），这一数量约等于英伟达今年的总出货量。“这是一个巨大的项目”，黄仁勋说道。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ec61153d3120df5aa8c9d384e8e76f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"636\"/></p><p>至此，三家科技巨头的合作形成了一个独特的资金循环模式：OpenAI向甲骨文采购云服务；甲骨文作为基础设施提供商，需向英伟达大量采购GPU硬件以建设数据中心；而英伟达获得甲骨文的采购资金后，再通过战略投资将部分收益返还给OpenAI，支持其持续扩张。</p><p>表面上看，这似乎已成为了一个“共赢”的合作模式——OpenAI 解决了对算力的迫切需求，甲骨文获得了搭建云基础设施的硬件，而英伟达则卖出了大量的核心硬件，股价的水涨船高无疑也是投资者们所乐见的。</p><p>然而，这一堪称“左脚踩右脚”的资本循环无疑伴随着巨大的风险。</p><p>首先，作为一家估值千亿美元的AI公司，OpenAI不仅未实现盈利，甚至在2025年预计将亏损超过50亿美元。其每年约100亿美元的收入，远低于每年600亿美元的云服务支出。OpenAI还面临越来着来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、Anthropic等公司的激烈竞争。</p><p>此外，甲骨文也面临着财务问题。报道指出，甲骨文为跟上AI热潮而进行的支出已经超过了现金流，其债务负担远高于其他云服务提供商。作为对比，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的总债务股本比为32.7%，而甲骨文高达427%。</p><p>分析指出，所谓“ONO”联盟更像是一场“走钢丝”的高风险博弈，利益的深度绑定也意味着更高的系统性风险——任何一方出现技术、财务或战略问题，都可能引发连锁反应。与此同时，投资者们也担忧可能催生市场泡沫，类似于当年的互联网泡沫。</p><p>尽管“ONO”联盟展现出了强大的资源整合能力，也获得了市场的积极回应，但这场耗资数千亿美元的AI基建竞赛的前景仍有待观察。截至目前，英伟达和OpenAI均未披露投资的具体细节及时间安排。英伟达代表拒绝就此置评。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1670412064557","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全是套路？英伟达、OpenAI、甲骨文的万亿“三角游戏”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-23 19:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250923215036a43ee0fb&s=b><strong>观网财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当地时间9月22日，英伟达宣布，将向人工智能公司OpenAI进行最高达1000亿美元（约合人民币7112.7亿）的战略投资，双方将合作建设大规模人工智能数据中心及其他基础设施。受此消息提振，英伟达股价当日创下历史新高。知情人士向彭博社透露称，这笔资金将分阶段到位，首笔100亿美元将在协议签署时到位。英伟达将以现金形式进行投资，并获得OpenAI的股权作为交易的一部分。后续，随着每一吉瓦算力的部署，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250923215036a43ee0fb&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/830d65c1bc3899a3fb317bd2b6011c07","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250923215036a43ee0fb&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2569152387","content_text":"当地时间9月22日，英伟达宣布，将向人工智能公司OpenAI进行最高达1000亿美元（约合人民币7112.7亿）的战略投资，双方将合作建设大规模人工智能数据中心及其他基础设施。受此消息提振，英伟达股价当日创下历史新高。知情人士向彭博社透露称，这笔资金将分阶段到位，首笔100亿美元将在协议签署时到位。英伟达将以现金形式进行投资，并获得OpenAI的股权作为交易的一部分。后续，随着每一吉瓦算力的部署，英伟达的投资金额将逐步追加。OpenAI还可利用这笔资金购买英伟达的芯片。这一战略合作的背后，是一系列高规格商业协议的联动。至此，OpenAI、英伟达与甲骨文（Oracle）构成的“ONO”三方联盟正式成型，一个围绕“大模型—云基建—算力芯片”的资本链条已初见雏形。这一合作的起点是今年6月。作为其“星际之门”（Stargate）计划的重要组成部分，OpenAI与甲骨文签订了一份价值高达3000亿美元的云服务合同，期限约五年。根据协议，OpenAI将从2027年开始每年向甲骨文支付约600亿美元，以获取其云算力服务。此外，两家公司还计划合作建设一个总容量为5吉瓦的数据中心。算力需求的激增，无疑也将带来基础硬件的庞大需求，而英伟达的正式加入，成为整个生态的关键一环。根据协议，OpenAI将利用英伟达提供的资金，建设并部署至少10吉瓦（GW）的 AI 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‌发生了什么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/475438345986832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":475280983953656,"gmtCreate":1757039203935,"gmtModify":1757040769572,"author":{"id":"3440897161812160","authorId":"3440897161812160","name":"james duan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a853dee41408bff6e6595b04b4887f94","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440897161812160","authorIdStr":"3440897161812160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4151507249215430\">@lucky 吼吼</a>:A股的庄家思维//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4151507249215430\">@lucky 吼吼</a>:这个就是故意打压，哪有这么恶意做庄的，FIG已经很好了，各方面都涨很多，分析师就是垃圾，故意搞的，让小散套牢，然后割肉离场！","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4151507249215430\">@lucky 吼吼</a>:A股的庄家思维//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4151507249215430\">@lucky 吼吼</a>:这个就是故意打压，哪有这么恶意做庄的，FIG已经很好了，各方面都涨很多，分析师就是垃圾，故意搞的，让小散套牢，然后割肉离场！","text":"Replying to @lucky 吼吼:A股的庄家思维//@lucky 吼吼:这个就是故意打压，哪有这么恶意做庄的，FIG已经很好了，各方面都涨很多，分析师就是垃圾，故意搞的，让小散套牢，然后割肉离场！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/475280983953656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":475188076753736,"gmtCreate":1757030928776,"gmtModify":1757030929927,"author":{"id":"3440897161812160","authorId":"3440897161812160","name":"james duan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a853dee41408bff6e6595b04b4887f94","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440897161812160","authorIdStr":"3440897161812160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ &nbsp;</a>卖房梭哈 10倍股 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duan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a853dee41408bff6e6595b04b4887f94","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440897161812160","authorIdStr":"3440897161812160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"又是博通财报拉起大盘","listText":"又是博通财报拉起大盘","text":"又是博通财报拉起大盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/475189064704104","repostId":"1123770804","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123770804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1757026373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123770804?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-05 06:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"博通Q3 AI芯片收入超预期增63%，神秘新客户下单百亿，料下财年AI前景“大幅”改善","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123770804","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"陈福阳称，博通正在与潜在客户合作开发AI加速器。陈福阳称，三季度博通的AI半导体营收同比增长63%至52亿美元，这也高于分析师预期的51.1亿美元。博通第二财季的AI芯片业务收入同比增长46%。陈福阳称，博通预计，四季度AI半导体营收增至62亿美元。博通2024财年的总营收将近516亿美元。博通2023年以610亿美元收购VMware，该业务现已成为其基础设施软件部门的核心，占前一财季销售额的44%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>第三财季<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>营收创同期新高、同比增22%；四财季营收指引同比增近24%强于预期，AI芯片收入料环比加速增19%至62亿美元、较分析师预期高6%以上。CEO称，上季度，一家AI加速器的潜在客户向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>发出生产订单、价值100亿美元，博通现在预计，2026财年AI收入前景较上季度预测大幅改善，从2026年起出货将很强劲。博通股价盘后涨近4%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">博通上个财季保持了两位数的收入劲增势头，比本已较高的华尔街预期水平更强劲，并预计本财季的人工智能（AI）芯片业务继续提速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">博通CEO陈福阳点评业绩称，博通第三财季营收创同期历史新高，得益于定制AI加速器、网络和VMware业务的持续强劲增长，并预计，由于客户的持续强劲投资，AI芯片本财季的营收将加速增长至62亿美元，实现连续11个季度增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业绩电话会上，陈福阳释放了定制AI芯片需求强劲的利好。陈福阳称，博通正在与潜在客户合作开发AI加速器。这意味着博通在开发<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>称霸的市场。而后他说，“上个季度，其中一家潜在客户向博通发出了生产订单”，未透露具体客户名称。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据陈福阳所说，上述未公开的第四位“神秘”客户给博通带来价值100亿美元的订单，他称因此该客户被定性为博通定制AI加速器XPU的合格客户。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">接着陈福阳说，博通“现在预计，2026财年的AI收入前景将较上个季度的预测大幅改善”，还说“从2026年开始，我们的出货量将非常强劲。” 评论认为，这些言论有助于缓解投资者对AI业务放缓的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报公布后，本周四收涨逾1.2%的博通盘后股价震荡，先曾跳涨约2%，后一度转跌超1%，业绩电话会期间摆脱跌势，盘后涨近4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至本周三收盘，博通股价过去一年几乎翻倍大涨，成为涨幅第三高的纳斯达克100指数成分股，市值同期增加约7300亿美元。但鉴于英伟达等AI芯片股最近发布财报后表现疲软，一些市场人士此前担心，即使博通的业绩亮眼，也可能面临“买消息、卖事实”的抛售风险。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c5ad8af9cc38812b1e3d99812d7276\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"567\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间9月4日周四，博通公布截至2025年8月3日的公司2025财年第三财季（下称“三季度”）财务数据，并提供第四财季（“四季度”）的业绩指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1）主要财务数据</strong>：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>营收</strong>：三季度营业收入159.5亿美元，同比增长22%，分析师预期158.4亿美元，公司指引158亿美元，前一季度同比增长20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>净利润</strong>：非GAAP口径下调整后三季度净利润为84.04亿美元，同比增长37.3%，前一季度同比增长44%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EBITDA</strong>：调整后三季度税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）为107.02亿美元，同比增长30.1%，分析师预期约105亿美元，利润率67.1%，前一季度同比增长34.6%、利润率66.7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EPS</strong>：调整后每股收益（EPS）三季度为1.69美元，同比增长36.3%，分析师预期1.66美元，前一季度同比增长43.6%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2）细分业务数据</strong>：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>半导体解决方案</strong>，包括ASIC在内的半导体解决方案业务收入为91.66亿美元，同比增长26%，占总营收的57%，分析师预期91亿美元，前一季度同比增长16.7%、占总营收的56%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>基础设施软件</strong>：包括VMware在内的基础设施软件业务收入为67.86亿美元，同比增长17%，占总营收的43%，前一季度同比增长24.8%、占总营收的44%。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace6ef26938dc019de7f1c36719c9908\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1439\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3）业绩指引</strong>：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>营收</strong>：四季度营收预计约为174亿美元，同比增长23.8%，分析师预期170.5亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EBITDA</strong>：四季度EBITDA利润率预计约67%，分析师预期66%。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_829186562\">营收创三季度最高纪录 AI芯片营收四季度料增至62亿美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，三季度博通的营收和利润端增长比华尔街预期的强劲。当季营收创公司史上第三财季最高纪录，同比增速由前一季的20%提升至22%，分析师预期增长约21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三季度博通的EPS同比增速由前一季的将近44%放缓至约36%，但还强于分析师预计不足34%的增速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">陈福阳称，三季度博通的AI半导体营收同比增长63%至52亿美元，这也高于分析师预期的51.1亿美元。而且增速高于前一季度。博通第二财季的AI芯片业务收入同比增长46%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业绩指引方面，博通预计四季度营收增长将进一步加快至将近24%，强于分析师预计的约21%增速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">陈福阳称，博通预计，四季度AI半导体营收增至62亿美元。这一指引较分析师预期的58.2亿美元高6.5%，相当于环比增长19%，环比增速也超过三季度的约18%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMMT\">Summit</a> Insights的分析师 Kinngai Chan评论称，博通的AI相关的半导体需求持续亮眼。三季度业绩增长主要得益于AI互联互通以及定制ASIC业务。</p><h2 id=\"id_2366803111\">ASIC在内半导体解决方案收入增26% </h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分业务看，三季度包括ASIC在内的半导体解决方案收入也提速，从前一季度的不到17%提高至26%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ASIC是专为特定领域或功能量身定制的集成电路。此前评论认为，去年博通之所以能让市值突破1万亿美元，是因为讲述了AI专用芯片ASIC的超大叙事，预计三年后ASIC与GPU至少平分天下，甚至取而代之。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">陈福阳去年12月预测，到2027年财年，市场的ASIC需求将达600亿至900亿美元。分析称，若这一预测准确，未来三年博通ASIC相关的AI业务有望实现每年翻倍增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析师预计，博通的定制芯片业务2026年可带来收入250亿至300亿美元，2027年有望超过400亿美元。那将占博通收入的一大半。博通2024财年的总营收将近516亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">博通2023年以610亿美元收购VMware，该业务现已成为其基础设施软件部门的核心，占前一财季销售额的44%。VMware业务的增长情况也是投资者关注的一个要点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三季度，包括VMware在内的基础设施软件业务收入增长有所放缓，同比增速由前一季的将近25%放缓至17%，在总营收中保持超过40%的比重。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>分析师最近指出，博通的非AI半导体业务已较峰值下降约40%，该业务占本财年预期销售额的27%，其复苏应能抵消AI业务带来的毛利率稀释效应。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1700700604709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>博通Q3 AI芯片收入超预期增63%，神秘新客户下单百亿，料下财年AI前景“大幅”改善</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n博通Q3 AI芯片收入超预期增63%，神秘新客户下单百亿，料下财年AI前景“大幅”改善\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-05 06:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754969><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>第三财季博通营收创同期新高、同比增22%；四财季营收指引同比增近24%强于预期，AI芯片收入料环比加速增19%至62亿美元、较分析师预期高6%以上。CEO称，上季度，一家AI加速器的潜在客户向博通发出生产订单、价值100亿美元，博通现在预计，2026财年AI收入前景较上季度预测大幅改善，从2026年起出货将很强劲。博通股价盘后涨近4%。博通上个财季保持了两位数的收入劲增势头，比本已较高的华尔街预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754969\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05ac5664b8d2d8af314c2fe1951c78e0","relate_stocks":{"IE00BDGV0183.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) INC","AVGO":"博通","IE00BYV24P56.USD":"GUINNESS EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BVYPNV92.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","BK4575":"芯片概念","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4612":"AI芯片","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BMCWC346.EUR":"GUINNESS EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) ACC","L":"洛斯公司","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754969","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123770804","content_text":"第三财季博通营收创同期新高、同比增22%；四财季营收指引同比增近24%强于预期，AI芯片收入料环比加速增19%至62亿美元、较分析师预期高6%以上。CEO称，上季度，一家AI加速器的潜在客户向博通发出生产订单、价值100亿美元，博通现在预计，2026财年AI收入前景较上季度预测大幅改善，从2026年起出货将很强劲。博通股价盘后涨近4%。博通上个财季保持了两位数的收入劲增势头，比本已较高的华尔街预期水平更强劲，并预计本财季的人工智能（AI）芯片业务继续提速。博通CEO陈福阳点评业绩称，博通第三财季营收创同期历史新高，得益于定制AI加速器、网络和VMware业务的持续强劲增长，并预计，由于客户的持续强劲投资，AI芯片本财季的营收将加速增长至62亿美元，实现连续11个季度增长。业绩电话会上，陈福阳释放了定制AI芯片需求强劲的利好。陈福阳称，博通正在与潜在客户合作开发AI加速器。这意味着博通在开发英伟达称霸的市场。而后他说，“上个季度，其中一家潜在客户向博通发出了生产订单”，未透露具体客户名称。据陈福阳所说，上述未公开的第四位“神秘”客户给博通带来价值100亿美元的订单，他称因此该客户被定性为博通定制AI加速器XPU的合格客户。接着陈福阳说，博通“现在预计，2026财年的AI收入前景将较上个季度的预测大幅改善”，还说“从2026年开始，我们的出货量将非常强劲。” 评论认为，这些言论有助于缓解投资者对AI业务放缓的担忧。财报公布后，本周四收涨逾1.2%的博通盘后股价震荡，先曾跳涨约2%，后一度转跌超1%，业绩电话会期间摆脱跌势，盘后涨近4%。截至本周三收盘，博通股价过去一年几乎翻倍大涨，成为涨幅第三高的纳斯达克100指数成分股，市值同期增加约7300亿美元。但鉴于英伟达等AI芯片股最近发布财报后表现疲软，一些市场人士此前担心，即使博通的业绩亮眼，也可能面临“买消息、卖事实”的抛售风险。美东时间9月4日周四，博通公布截至2025年8月3日的公司2025财年第三财季（下称“三季度”）财务数据，并提供第四财季（“四季度”）的业绩指引。1）主要财务数据：营收：三季度营业收入159.5亿美元，同比增长22%，分析师预期158.4亿美元，公司指引158亿美元，前一季度同比增长20%。净利润：非GAAP口径下调整后三季度净利润为84.04亿美元，同比增长37.3%，前一季度同比增长44%。EBITDA：调整后三季度税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）为107.02亿美元，同比增长30.1%，分析师预期约105亿美元，利润率67.1%，前一季度同比增长34.6%、利润率66.7%。EPS：调整后每股收益（EPS）三季度为1.69美元，同比增长36.3%，分析师预期1.66美元，前一季度同比增长43.6%。2）细分业务数据：半导体解决方案，包括ASIC在内的半导体解决方案业务收入为91.66亿美元，同比增长26%，占总营收的57%，分析师预期91亿美元，前一季度同比增长16.7%、占总营收的56%。基础设施软件：包括VMware在内的基础设施软件业务收入为67.86亿美元，同比增长17%，占总营收的43%，前一季度同比增长24.8%、占总营收的44%。3）业绩指引：营收：四季度营收预计约为174亿美元，同比增长23.8%，分析师预期170.5亿美元。EBITDA：四季度EBITDA利润率预计约67%，分析师预期66%。营收创三季度最高纪录 AI芯片营收四季度料增至62亿美元财报显示，三季度博通的营收和利润端增长比华尔街预期的强劲。当季营收创公司史上第三财季最高纪录，同比增速由前一季的20%提升至22%，分析师预期增长约21%。三季度博通的EPS同比增速由前一季的将近44%放缓至约36%，但还强于分析师预计不足34%的增速。陈福阳称，三季度博通的AI半导体营收同比增长63%至52亿美元，这也高于分析师预期的51.1亿美元。而且增速高于前一季度。博通第二财季的AI芯片业务收入同比增长46%。业绩指引方面，博通预计四季度营收增长将进一步加快至将近24%，强于分析师预计的约21%增速。陈福阳称，博通预计，四季度AI半导体营收增至62亿美元。这一指引较分析师预期的58.2亿美元高6.5%，相当于环比增长19%，环比增速也超过三季度的约18%。Summit Insights的分析师 Kinngai Chan评论称，博通的AI相关的半导体需求持续亮眼。三季度业绩增长主要得益于AI互联互通以及定制ASIC业务。ASIC在内半导体解决方案收入增26% 分业务看，三季度包括ASIC在内的半导体解决方案收入也提速，从前一季度的不到17%提高至26%。ASIC是专为特定领域或功能量身定制的集成电路。此前评论认为，去年博通之所以能让市值突破1万亿美元，是因为讲述了AI专用芯片ASIC的超大叙事，预计三年后ASIC与GPU至少平分天下，甚至取而代之。陈福阳去年12月预测，到2027年财年，市场的ASIC需求将达600亿至900亿美元。分析称，若这一预测准确，未来三年博通ASIC相关的AI业务有望实现每年翻倍增长。分析师预计，博通的定制芯片业务2026年可带来收入250亿至300亿美元，2027年有望超过400亿美元。那将占博通收入的一大半。博通2024财年的总营收将近516亿美元。博通2023年以610亿美元收购VMware，该业务现已成为其基础设施软件部门的核心，占前一财季销售额的44%。VMware业务的增长情况也是投资者关注的一个要点。三季度，包括VMware在内的基础设施软件业务收入增长有所放缓，同比增速由前一季的将近25%放缓至17%，在总营收中保持超过40%的比重。花旗分析师最近指出，博通的非AI半导体业务已较峰值下降约40%，该业务占本财年预期销售额的27%，其复苏应能抵消AI业务带来的毛利率稀释效应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGO":1,"L":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":475063089377584,"gmtCreate":1756999834428,"gmtModify":1756999836157,"author":{"id":"3440897161812160","authorId":"3440897161812160","name":"james duan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a853dee41408bff6e6595b04b4887f94","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440897161812160","authorIdStr":"3440897161812160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不可能 企业没有盈利","listText":"不可能 企业没有盈利","text":"不可能 企业没有盈利","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/475063089377584","repostId":"1132654999","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132654999","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1756998947,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132654999?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-04 23:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Strategy或成标普500指数成份股中首家以比特币为核心的企业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132654999","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月4日（周四），Strategy跌超3%，据彭博报道，Strategy或成标普500指数成份股中首家以比特币为核心的企业。消息方面：Strategy因持有约700亿美元比特币及季度未实现盈利达140亿美元，已满足标普500指数成分股的流动性和市值等标准。若被纳入，约50万股将被被动基金买入，市值约160亿美元。标普500指数委员会仍需综合考量波动性与行业平衡。Strategy此前已进入纳斯达克100，若纳入标普500指数或将带来更大机构认可。（彭博）","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月4日（周四），Strategy跌超3%，据彭博报道，Strategy或成标普500指数成份股中首家以比特币为核心的企业。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5b2a56c129caf68d3de71dea6a3112\" tg-width=\"244\" tg-height=\"83\"/></p><p>消息方面：</p><p>Strategy因持有约700亿美元比特币及季度未实现盈利达140亿美元，已满足标普500指数成分股的流动性和市值等标准。若被纳入，约50万股将被被动基金买入，市值约160亿美元。标普500指数委员会仍需综合考量波动性与行业平衡。Strategy此前已进入纳斯达克100，若纳入标普500指数或将带来更大机构认可。（彭博）</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-04 23:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月4日（周四），Strategy跌超3%，据彭博报道，Strategy或成标普500指数成份股中首家以比特币为核心的企业。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5b2a56c129caf68d3de71dea6a3112\" tg-width=\"244\" 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start;\">　　如果大模型是淘金热，英伟达就是卖铲人。科技巨头、创业公司、中东土豪，把大把的钱送给英伟达，换成AI芯片去开发大模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　大模型是不是金矿不重要，手里有没有铲子很重要。作为底层算力的提供方，英伟达从大模型军备竞赛中获益。众人哄抢，造成“一铲难求”，英伟达被推上神坛。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　2024年以来，英伟达的股价上涨超过60%，而在2023年它已经涨了两倍多。它的市值先后超过亚马逊、谷歌，达到接近2万亿美金，成为美股第三、全球第四大公司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726ba3bedbd2200293f17a9251c5b8ce\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"377\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　现在，英伟达已经正式取代特斯拉，成为美股成交量最大的公司。它一个晚上的成交额能超过600亿美金，是特斯拉的3倍多。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　整个AI圈几乎要被英伟达“绑架”了。英伟达的股价一直涨，推动AI狂欢继续；只要它的业绩继续超预期，就证明AI不完全是泡沫。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　因此，英伟达的四季度财报，就具有了分水岭的意义。它要么终结这一波AI狂欢，美股掉头向下，要么继续推波助澜，再创新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达财报公布前一天，股价提前下跌4.35%，出现今年年内最大单日跌幅；财报公布当天，股价再跌2.85%。然而，财报正式发布后，由于业绩大超预期，股价大涨超过16%，一个晚上市值增加2770亿美元，创美股史上最高单日市值增幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达汇集了人们对AI的信仰。但一个“卖铲子”的公司，真的值2万亿美金吗？是谁在爆炒英伟达？</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　<strong>一张卡，两波浪潮</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　现在人们一提起英伟达，必然提到AI。其实英伟达最早的故事，跟AI没有任何关系，它是从一张卡开始的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　PC时代，大部分高端PC都会配备CPU和GPU。CPU即中央处理器，GPU是图形处理器，前者由几个高效的计算核心组成，擅长通用计算，后者拥有上千颗小计算单元，适合大规模并行计算，尤其擅长图形和视频。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　所谓“计算机”，首先得有计算能力，这两块芯片就是给电脑提供算力的，属于底层硬件。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达做的是GPU，其实就是电脑显示芯片，或者说游戏显卡。过去很多年里，英伟达超过一半的收入都来自游戏业务。可以说，打游戏的人养活了这家公司。这是一门看起来相对传统的生意。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　意外的是，GPU并行计算的特点，非常适合AI计算。2012年深度卷积神经网络（CNN）被发明后，深度学习进入新阶段。训练神经网络需要庞大的计算资源，而GPU的性能和效率远超过CPU。所有“鸡蛋”都在GPU这一个篮子里的英伟达，踩上了AI时代的浪潮。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　第一波浪潮发生在2016年，起因是谷歌的AlphaGo战胜了韩国围棋高手李世石。一大批公司进军人工智能，加大深度学习研究。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达讲了三个故事——游戏、AI计算、自动驾驶。第一个故事是老本行，负责赚钱，后两个故事描绘前景，拉升股价。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　当时，云厂商纷纷在自己的云平台部署英伟达GPU，以增强计算能力。美国的几个科技巨头，以及中国的BAT，都成为英伟达的客户。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　那会儿还涌现出一大批自动驾驶公司，它们被视为人工智能技术的重要落地场景。英伟达和百度、大众、Uber等达成合作，还投资了自动驾驶公司景驰、图森科技，以推销自己的GPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　2017年，英伟达成为全球最大的独立GPU厂商，占据70%的市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这个故事足够吸引人。从2015年到2017年，英伟达的收入只增长了50%，但股价涨了8倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　巧的是，区块链又给这个故事添了一把火。2017年，比特币、以太坊等加密货币价格暴涨，引发“挖矿潮”。“挖矿”就是通过高速计算来获取加密货币，需要用到显卡，显卡越多，挖矿速度越快，赚钱越快。于是，很多人四处购买英伟达GPU，一度被买断货。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　加密货币助推英伟达股价大涨。到了2018年10月，英伟达股价超过290美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　第二波浪潮发生在2022年，触发点是OpenAI发布ChatGPT。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这一次可以视为人工智能的复兴，因为AI行业过去画的几个大饼——自动驾驶、元宇宙，都是一地鸡毛。英伟达讲的几个故事，也都是草草结尾。在ChatGPT于2022年10月底诞生之前，英伟达的股价跌到了108美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　接下来的故事很多人知道了。AI创业卷土重来，生成式AI成为风口，大模型打头阵。随后，英伟达的股价在一年多时间里涨了6倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这两波浪潮有很多共同点，比如：催化剂都是AI，算力资源被疯抢，科技圈很狂热，英伟达最先受益。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　<strong>卖铲子的先赚到金子</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　相比第一波浪潮，这一波有几个新特点。首先，几乎所有科技巨头都相信，必须训练自己的大模型，为此可以不计成本投入。另外，英伟达真正从中赚到了钱。这是支撑英伟达股价大涨的前提。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　八年前英伟达卖了很多卡，但最后实际用于AI计算的不多，它的营收支柱还是游戏业务。这从财报中可见一斑。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达的收入来自五大板块——游戏、数据中心、专业视觉、汽车、OEM。其中最核心的是游戏和数据中心，AI计算相关的收入都归入数据中心。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　2017年，游戏业务收入55亿美元，数据中心19亿美元，二者占比分别为57%、20%。那会儿英伟达也对外讲AI计算的故事，但风口还不够大。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　也是从那一年开始，英伟达从传统电脑向人工智能转型，数据中心的收入占比逐年提高。而转型的效果直到五年后才彻底体现，一直等到ChatGPT问世。2022年，英伟达数据中心收入150亿美元，占比56%，首次超过游戏业务。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这是一个重要的转折点。人们开始相信，这一波AI浪潮很真实，因为英伟达的客户们已经用真金白银投票。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　生成式AI被很多人认为是十年一遇甚至百年一遇的大风口，英伟达的GPU又是训练大模型必不可少的硬件。在硅谷，英伟达的A100和H100是“硬通货”，有钱还不一定买得到。有一家创业公司融资23亿美金，给投资机构的抵押物，正是其拥有的英伟达GPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　Meta CEO扎克伯格在今年1月对外说，Meta正在构建大规模的算力基础设施，要在2024年底集成35万张英伟达H100显卡，如果算上其他芯片，则共有近60万个H100的等效计算量。外界估算，Meta购买这些芯片的价格至少达90亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　国内的科技圈，也以拥有GPU的数量，来评估一家公司开发大模型的实力。腾讯、百度、字节跳动、阿里等巨头，过去几年都囤积了数亿美元价值的英伟达GPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　先不说这些卡能训练出多少实用的大模型产品，至少钱先让英伟达赚到了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达的收入，大约有一半来自消费互联网公司，另一半来自云厂商。全球市值排行榜前列的大型科技公司，基本都为英伟达“充值”了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　2023年的四个季度，英伟达数据中心的收入一直在创新高。质变发生在二季度，数据中心收入103亿美元，增速高达171%，远超市场预期。此前，这项收入一直只有三四十亿美元。这让英伟达赚取了62亿美元净利润，相当于过去五个季度的总和。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　三季度，数据中心的收入增速更是高达279%，四季度飙升至409%。整个2023年，数据中心为英伟达贡献了474亿美元的收入，是游戏业务的4.5倍，其占总收入的比例上涨至78%，而总收入则增至609亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3996feb9fea2ced95f39adbbc364e33f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"373\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　更夸张的是盈利能力。2023年，利润率更高的H100畅销，给英伟达带来巨额利润。公开信息显示，一颗H100售价高达3万美元，其成本不到5000美元。2023年英伟达净利润达到298亿美元，超过之前六年的总和，其毛利率为72.7%，净利率高达48.9%，远超同行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec7340be5e1726a33b602499bac7f35\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　只能说，科技公司们为了拼大模型，是真敢花钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这个时候，我们可以认为，英伟达已经成为一家正宗的AI计算公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　投资人投的是未来，看中预期。英伟达的神话能否继续，未来的业绩预估很关键。英伟达给出的指引是：2025财年第一季度收入240亿美元，同比增长234%，超市场预期的218亿美元；毛利率76.3%，也超市场预期的75.1%，再创新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　有人相信AI可以点石成金，也有人认为AI催生了泡沫。对于英伟达而言，这些都不重要。它就像一个军火商，只要军备竞赛继续，它就有利可图。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　问题是，军备竞赛能一直打下去吗？</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　<strong>　淘金热结束之后</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　相信英伟达的人，与其说是看好这家公司，倒不如说是看好生成式AI。如果生成式AI最终只是个泡沫，那英伟达的高估值必然坍塌。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　以史为鉴。第一波AI浪潮也曾让很多人疯狂。然而，那波热潮产生的泡沫，直到今天都还没消化完——曾经被资本追捧的AI芯片、自动驾驶，没几个公司赚到钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达曾被高估。2018年的加密货币“挖矿潮”中，英伟达的股价创下历史新高，3年翻了13倍。然而随后加密货币泡沫破灭，英伟达的股价在三个月内腰斩。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　2022年4月，英伟达的股价站上289美元的高点后，在随后的一年多时间里又跌去了三分之二。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达还是那个英伟达，但市场情绪瞬息万变，它容易被泡沫推着走。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　有人拿英伟达跟思科类比，2000年互联网泡沫，冲在前面的是思科路由器。它对外讲的也是互联网硬件的故事，一度占据网络路由器超过80%的市场份额。投资者看好互联网的前景，进而看好思科。这跟今天的英伟达非常相似。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　投资人的推断逻辑是：每一轮科技变革，往往都从硬件开始。20多年前是思科，10年前是苹果，今天是英伟达。所以英伟达值得被高估。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　1999年初，思科的市值占到整个美股的2.5%。即便如此，随后一年它的股价又涨了两倍，成为美股市值最高的公司。今天，即便英伟达已经是美股第四大公司，还是有人押注它的股价将涨到1300美元。这样的话，它的市值将达到3.4万亿美元，超越微软和苹果，排名美股第一。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　两家公司的路径太相似了。不过，2001年互联网泡沫破灭，思科的股价跌去三分之二，至今再未达到当年高点。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　有人做了一张对比图，将思科从1996年到2002年的股价走势，与英伟达2020年至今的走势叠加在一起，发现有很大重合。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/994d4aac91a37001f543f0dea0dd190f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"606\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　归根到底，英伟达的业绩和股价，完全建立人们对AI时代的信仰上。只要这个信仰不灭，英伟达的神话就能继续，否则全都是泡沫。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　华尔街明星基金经理“木头姐”说，AI热潮并非泡沫，但市场期待过高，英伟达涨过头了。此前她已经抛售了英伟达股票。另一位投资人认为，英伟达的股价透支了未来十年的业绩表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　在备受关注的四季度财报发布之后，CEO黄仁勋对外传递信号，继续强调加速计算和生成式AI，声称AI时代的临界点已经到来。“全球各地的企业、行业和国家需求都在激增。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　挑战也显而易见。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达的大客户们，一方面继续向英伟达采购GPU，同时也在加速开发替代品。巨头们不会让英伟达独享这一巨大市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　最新消息是，微软正在研发一款新的网卡产品，以提高其AI芯片Maia的性能，最终达到减少对英伟达产品依赖的目的。OpenAI创始人奥特曼正在四处奔走，接触各路投资人，以研发自己的AI芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达的老对手AMD、英特尔，更是步步紧逼，相继推出直接对标英伟达H100的产品。今年，它们的产品将迎来更新，加速瓜分英伟达的客户。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　英伟达一统江湖的格局，或许不会持续太久。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　当然，在格局重塑之前，英伟达还会再飞一会。美股的AI狂欢，目前没有降温的迹象。当人们是在为“市梦率”买单，支撑英伟达超越微软、苹果的，就只有信仰了。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1690343385125","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一个“卖铲子”的英伟达，真值2万亿美金吗？是谁在爆炒？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-23 18:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/internet/2024-02-23/doc-inaiyrrw5123513.shtml><strong>定焦</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | 黎明　　如果大模型是淘金热，英伟达就是卖铲人。科技巨头、创业公司、中东土豪，把大把的钱送给英伟达，换成AI芯片去开发大模型。　　大模型是不是金矿不重要，手里有没有铲子很重要。作为底层算力的提供方，英伟达从大模型军备竞赛中获益。众人哄抢，造成“一铲难求”，英伟达被推上神坛。　　2024年以来，英伟达的股价上涨超过60%，而在2023年它已经涨了两倍多。它的市值先后超过亚马逊、谷歌，达到接近...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/internet/2024-02-23/doc-inaiyrrw5123513.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b8db4b0e3e8dc0281ba058cc5847232","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/internet/2024-02-23/doc-inaiyrrw5123513.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174033153","content_text":"作者 | 黎明　　如果大模型是淘金热，英伟达就是卖铲人。科技巨头、创业公司、中东土豪，把大把的钱送给英伟达，换成AI芯片去开发大模型。　　大模型是不是金矿不重要，手里有没有铲子很重要。作为底层算力的提供方，英伟达从大模型军备竞赛中获益。众人哄抢，造成“一铲难求”，英伟达被推上神坛。　　2024年以来，英伟达的股价上涨超过60%，而在2023年它已经涨了两倍多。它的市值先后超过亚马逊、谷歌，达到接近2万亿美金，成为美股第三、全球第四大公司。　　现在，英伟达已经正式取代特斯拉，成为美股成交量最大的公司。它一个晚上的成交额能超过600亿美金，是特斯拉的3倍多。　　整个AI圈几乎要被英伟达“绑架”了。英伟达的股价一直涨，推动AI狂欢继续；只要它的业绩继续超预期，就证明AI不完全是泡沫。　　因此，英伟达的四季度财报，就具有了分水岭的意义。它要么终结这一波AI狂欢，美股掉头向下，要么继续推波助澜，再创新高。　　英伟达财报公布前一天，股价提前下跌4.35%，出现今年年内最大单日跌幅；财报公布当天，股价再跌2.85%。然而，财报正式发布后，由于业绩大超预期，股价大涨超过16%，一个晚上市值增加2770亿美元，创美股史上最高单日市值增幅。　　英伟达汇集了人们对AI的信仰。但一个“卖铲子”的公司，真的值2万亿美金吗？是谁在爆炒英伟达？　　一张卡，两波浪潮　　现在人们一提起英伟达，必然提到AI。其实英伟达最早的故事，跟AI没有任何关系，它是从一张卡开始的。　　PC时代，大部分高端PC都会配备CPU和GPU。CPU即中央处理器，GPU是图形处理器，前者由几个高效的计算核心组成，擅长通用计算，后者拥有上千颗小计算单元，适合大规模并行计算，尤其擅长图形和视频。　　所谓“计算机”，首先得有计算能力，这两块芯片就是给电脑提供算力的，属于底层硬件。　　英伟达做的是GPU，其实就是电脑显示芯片，或者说游戏显卡。过去很多年里，英伟达超过一半的收入都来自游戏业务。可以说，打游戏的人养活了这家公司。这是一门看起来相对传统的生意。　　意外的是，GPU并行计算的特点，非常适合AI计算。2012年深度卷积神经网络（CNN）被发明后，深度学习进入新阶段。训练神经网络需要庞大的计算资源，而GPU的性能和效率远超过CPU。所有“鸡蛋”都在GPU这一个篮子里的英伟达，踩上了AI时代的浪潮。　　第一波浪潮发生在2016年，起因是谷歌的AlphaGo战胜了韩国围棋高手李世石。一大批公司进军人工智能，加大深度学习研究。　　英伟达讲了三个故事——游戏、AI计算、自动驾驶。第一个故事是老本行，负责赚钱，后两个故事描绘前景，拉升股价。　　当时，云厂商纷纷在自己的云平台部署英伟达GPU，以增强计算能力。美国的几个科技巨头，以及中国的BAT，都成为英伟达的客户。　　那会儿还涌现出一大批自动驾驶公司，它们被视为人工智能技术的重要落地场景。英伟达和百度、大众、Uber等达成合作，还投资了自动驾驶公司景驰、图森科技，以推销自己的GPU。　　2017年，英伟达成为全球最大的独立GPU厂商，占据70%的市场份额。　　这个故事足够吸引人。从2015年到2017年，英伟达的收入只增长了50%，但股价涨了8倍。　　巧的是，区块链又给这个故事添了一把火。2017年，比特币、以太坊等加密货币价格暴涨，引发“挖矿潮”。“挖矿”就是通过高速计算来获取加密货币，需要用到显卡，显卡越多，挖矿速度越快，赚钱越快。于是，很多人四处购买英伟达GPU，一度被买断货。　　加密货币助推英伟达股价大涨。到了2018年10月，英伟达股价超过290美元。　　第二波浪潮发生在2022年，触发点是OpenAI发布ChatGPT。　　这一次可以视为人工智能的复兴，因为AI行业过去画的几个大饼——自动驾驶、元宇宙，都是一地鸡毛。英伟达讲的几个故事，也都是草草结尾。在ChatGPT于2022年10月底诞生之前，英伟达的股价跌到了108美元。　　接下来的故事很多人知道了。AI创业卷土重来，生成式AI成为风口，大模型打头阵。随后，英伟达的股价在一年多时间里涨了6倍。　　这两波浪潮有很多共同点，比如：催化剂都是AI，算力资源被疯抢，科技圈很狂热，英伟达最先受益。　　卖铲子的先赚到金子　　相比第一波浪潮，这一波有几个新特点。首先，几乎所有科技巨头都相信，必须训练自己的大模型，为此可以不计成本投入。另外，英伟达真正从中赚到了钱。这是支撑英伟达股价大涨的前提。　　八年前英伟达卖了很多卡，但最后实际用于AI计算的不多，它的营收支柱还是游戏业务。这从财报中可见一斑。　　英伟达的收入来自五大板块——游戏、数据中心、专业视觉、汽车、OEM。其中最核心的是游戏和数据中心，AI计算相关的收入都归入数据中心。　　2017年，游戏业务收入55亿美元，数据中心19亿美元，二者占比分别为57%、20%。那会儿英伟达也对外讲AI计算的故事，但风口还不够大。　　也是从那一年开始，英伟达从传统电脑向人工智能转型，数据中心的收入占比逐年提高。而转型的效果直到五年后才彻底体现，一直等到ChatGPT问世。2022年，英伟达数据中心收入150亿美元，占比56%，首次超过游戏业务。　　这是一个重要的转折点。人们开始相信，这一波AI浪潮很真实，因为英伟达的客户们已经用真金白银投票。　　生成式AI被很多人认为是十年一遇甚至百年一遇的大风口，英伟达的GPU又是训练大模型必不可少的硬件。在硅谷，英伟达的A100和H100是“硬通货”，有钱还不一定买得到。有一家创业公司融资23亿美金，给投资机构的抵押物，正是其拥有的英伟达GPU。　　Meta CEO扎克伯格在今年1月对外说，Meta正在构建大规模的算力基础设施，要在2024年底集成35万张英伟达H100显卡，如果算上其他芯片，则共有近60万个H100的等效计算量。外界估算，Meta购买这些芯片的价格至少达90亿美元。　　国内的科技圈，也以拥有GPU的数量，来评估一家公司开发大模型的实力。腾讯、百度、字节跳动、阿里等巨头，过去几年都囤积了数亿美元价值的英伟达GPU。　　先不说这些卡能训练出多少实用的大模型产品，至少钱先让英伟达赚到了。　　英伟达的收入，大约有一半来自消费互联网公司，另一半来自云厂商。全球市值排行榜前列的大型科技公司，基本都为英伟达“充值”了。　　2023年的四个季度，英伟达数据中心的收入一直在创新高。质变发生在二季度，数据中心收入103亿美元，增速高达171%，远超市场预期。此前，这项收入一直只有三四十亿美元。这让英伟达赚取了62亿美元净利润，相当于过去五个季度的总和。　　三季度，数据中心的收入增速更是高达279%，四季度飙升至409%。整个2023年，数据中心为英伟达贡献了474亿美元的收入，是游戏业务的4.5倍，其占总收入的比例上涨至78%，而总收入则增至609亿美元。　　更夸张的是盈利能力。2023年，利润率更高的H100畅销，给英伟达带来巨额利润。公开信息显示，一颗H100售价高达3万美元，其成本不到5000美元。2023年英伟达净利润达到298亿美元，超过之前六年的总和，其毛利率为72.7%，净利率高达48.9%，远超同行。　　只能说，科技公司们为了拼大模型，是真敢花钱。　　这个时候，我们可以认为，英伟达已经成为一家正宗的AI计算公司。　　投资人投的是未来，看中预期。英伟达的神话能否继续，未来的业绩预估很关键。英伟达给出的指引是：2025财年第一季度收入240亿美元，同比增长234%，超市场预期的218亿美元；毛利率76.3%，也超市场预期的75.1%，再创新高。　　有人相信AI可以点石成金，也有人认为AI催生了泡沫。对于英伟达而言，这些都不重要。它就像一个军火商，只要军备竞赛继续，它就有利可图。　　问题是，军备竞赛能一直打下去吗？　　淘金热结束之后　　相信英伟达的人，与其说是看好这家公司，倒不如说是看好生成式AI。如果生成式AI最终只是个泡沫，那英伟达的高估值必然坍塌。　　以史为鉴。第一波AI浪潮也曾让很多人疯狂。然而，那波热潮产生的泡沫，直到今天都还没消化完——曾经被资本追捧的AI芯片、自动驾驶，没几个公司赚到钱。　　英伟达曾被高估。2018年的加密货币“挖矿潮”中，英伟达的股价创下历史新高，3年翻了13倍。然而随后加密货币泡沫破灭，英伟达的股价在三个月内腰斩。　　2022年4月，英伟达的股价站上289美元的高点后，在随后的一年多时间里又跌去了三分之二。　　英伟达还是那个英伟达，但市场情绪瞬息万变，它容易被泡沫推着走。　　有人拿英伟达跟思科类比，2000年互联网泡沫，冲在前面的是思科路由器。它对外讲的也是互联网硬件的故事，一度占据网络路由器超过80%的市场份额。投资者看好互联网的前景，进而看好思科。这跟今天的英伟达非常相似。　　投资人的推断逻辑是：每一轮科技变革，往往都从硬件开始。20多年前是思科，10年前是苹果，今天是英伟达。所以英伟达值得被高估。　　1999年初，思科的市值占到整个美股的2.5%。即便如此，随后一年它的股价又涨了两倍，成为美股市值最高的公司。今天，即便英伟达已经是美股第四大公司，还是有人押注它的股价将涨到1300美元。这样的话，它的市值将达到3.4万亿美元，超越微软和苹果，排名美股第一。　　两家公司的路径太相似了。不过，2001年互联网泡沫破灭，思科的股价跌去三分之二，至今再未达到当年高点。　　有人做了一张对比图，将思科从1996年到2002年的股价走势，与英伟达2020年至今的走势叠加在一起，发现有很大重合。　　归根到底，英伟达的业绩和股价，完全建立人们对AI时代的信仰上。只要这个信仰不灭，英伟达的神话就能继续，否则全都是泡沫。　　华尔街明星基金经理“木头姐”说，AI热潮并非泡沫，但市场期待过高，英伟达涨过头了。此前她已经抛售了英伟达股票。另一位投资人认为，英伟达的股价透支了未来十年的业绩表现。　　在备受关注的四季度财报发布之后，CEO黄仁勋对外传递信号，继续强调加速计算和生成式AI，声称AI时代的临界点已经到来。“全球各地的企业、行业和国家需求都在激增。”　　挑战也显而易见。　　英伟达的大客户们，一方面继续向英伟达采购GPU，同时也在加速开发替代品。巨头们不会让英伟达独享这一巨大市场。　　最新消息是，微软正在研发一款新的网卡产品，以提高其AI芯片Maia的性能，最终达到减少对英伟达产品依赖的目的。OpenAI创始人奥特曼正在四处奔走，接触各路投资人，以研发自己的AI芯片。　　英伟达的老对手AMD、英特尔，更是步步紧逼，相继推出直接对标英伟达H100的产品。今年，它们的产品将迎来更新，加速瓜分英伟达的客户。　　英伟达一统江湖的格局，或许不会持续太久。　　当然，在格局重塑之前，英伟达还会再飞一会。美股的AI狂欢，目前没有降温的迹象。当人们是在为“市梦率”买单，支撑英伟达超越微软、苹果的，就只有信仰了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334307237,"gmtCreate":1610699833429,"gmtModify":1703746350378,"author":{"id":"3440897161812160","authorId":"3440897161812160","name":"james 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