沙漠里的火的个人主页 - 老虎社区

沙漠里的火

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：上海

54关注

1粉丝

1主题

0勋章

沙漠里的火

08-14

$Tron Inc.(TRON)$ 孙哥成神了

沙漠里的火

2020-12-15

cool

@安心睡大觉:股王茅台现在估值高不高？

沙漠里的火

2019-08-20

$百度(BIDU)$还在底部

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3441147820849269","uuid":"3441147820849269","gmtCreate":1497238656820,"gmtModify":1497239626993,"name":"沙漠里的火","pinyin":"smldhshamolidehuo","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":54,"tweetSize":3,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.61%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.12.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.81%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"上海","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":467558956618192,"gmtCreate":1755166866281,"gmtModify":1755167157290,"author":{"id":"3441147820849269","authorId":"3441147820849269","name":"沙漠里的火","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441147820849269","authorIdStr":"3441147820849269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRON\">$Tron Inc.(TRON)$</a> 孙哥成神了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRON\">$Tron Inc.(TRON)$</a> 孙哥成神了","text":"$Tron Inc.(TRON)$ 孙哥成神了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467558956618192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394151346,"gmtCreate":1607963870185,"gmtModify":1703850406149,"author":{"id":"3441147820849269","authorId":"3441147820849269","name":"沙漠里的火","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441147820849269","authorIdStr":"3441147820849269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394151346","repostId":"394350821","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":394350821,"gmtCreate":1607951692463,"gmtModify":1703850257158,"author":{"id":"3502662293881250","authorId":"3502662293881250","name":"安心睡大觉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5644d6d3b2f1f98162851b875f4d8ac5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502662293881250","authorIdStr":"3502662293881250"},"themes":[],"title":"股王茅台现在估值高不高？","htmlText":"核心内容：1.根据茅台的商业模式对茅台进行估值，具体可从两块产品收入进行业务现金流折现分析，外加考虑利息收入；2. 茅台有两大特点：一是供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二是由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。本文结构：1.&nbsp;前言（一些废话）2. 估值分析3.&nbsp;小结4.风险01&nbsp;&nbsp;前言我曾在2020年2月，茅台股价上1300元的时候分析过，各种夸奖，并在文中建议28-30倍市盈率买入。此后疫情导致股价真的达到千元以下，也就是目标建仓价格，但是我由于当时对茅台认识仍然不足，并且重仓平安没舍得换仓（判断不出哪个更有潜力）两个重要原因而错过。欢迎大家再翻翻以前写的这篇介绍文，如果您对茅台认识较浅的话。走近股王-茅台然而现在茅台价格继续一飞冲天，让我不得不再次研究下。有两个重要原因，对于茅台，是否市盈率50就需要卖出（至少我原来的交易体系偏向于卖出了），要知道这是茅台享受的历史最高点，是否还会继续估值水平高涨。二是许多大佬的操作让我糊涂。例如老唐到达2.3万亿不减仓，老华这时候居然还加仓3000万，同时也有大佬进行逐步减仓。02&nbsp;估值这次的估值将不采用历史pe倍数估值法，咱们走的深一点、细致一点。结合茅台公司的商业模式进行深入分析。根据2019年茅台的利润表及附注我们可知其收入主要就是三大块：茅台酒收入、系列酒收入和利息收入。此处忽略手续费及佣金收入，抓大放小。我们的思路就是分部去计算收入，主要考虑两大经营业务收入，最后再考虑利息收入。以下估值过程充满了很多主观判断，如有不合适的地方，还请指出。两大假设：一、供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二、由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。其他假设、判断，在估值过程中有所体现。根据前人指路，茅台酒的特点为今年的产量是","listText":"核心内容：1.根据茅台的商业模式对茅台进行估值，具体可从两块产品收入进行业务现金流折现分析，外加考虑利息收入；2. 茅台有两大特点：一是供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二是由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。本文结构：1.&nbsp;前言（一些废话）2. 估值分析3.&nbsp;小结4.风险01&nbsp;&nbsp;前言我曾在2020年2月，茅台股价上1300元的时候分析过，各种夸奖，并在文中建议28-30倍市盈率买入。此后疫情导致股价真的达到千元以下，也就是目标建仓价格，但是我由于当时对茅台认识仍然不足，并且重仓平安没舍得换仓（判断不出哪个更有潜力）两个重要原因而错过。欢迎大家再翻翻以前写的这篇介绍文，如果您对茅台认识较浅的话。走近股王-茅台然而现在茅台价格继续一飞冲天，让我不得不再次研究下。有两个重要原因，对于茅台，是否市盈率50就需要卖出（至少我原来的交易体系偏向于卖出了），要知道这是茅台享受的历史最高点，是否还会继续估值水平高涨。二是许多大佬的操作让我糊涂。例如老唐到达2.3万亿不减仓，老华这时候居然还加仓3000万，同时也有大佬进行逐步减仓。02&nbsp;估值这次的估值将不采用历史pe倍数估值法，咱们走的深一点、细致一点。结合茅台公司的商业模式进行深入分析。根据2019年茅台的利润表及附注我们可知其收入主要就是三大块：茅台酒收入、系列酒收入和利息收入。此处忽略手续费及佣金收入，抓大放小。我们的思路就是分部去计算收入，主要考虑两大经营业务收入，最后再考虑利息收入。以下估值过程充满了很多主观判断，如有不合适的地方，还请指出。两大假设：一、供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二、由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。其他假设、判断，在估值过程中有所体现。根据前人指路，茅台酒的特点为今年的产量是","text":"核心内容：1.根据茅台的商业模式对茅台进行估值，具体可从两块产品收入进行业务现金流折现分析，外加考虑利息收入；2. 茅台有两大特点：一是供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二是由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。本文结构：1. 前言（一些废话）2. 估值分析3. 小结4.风险01 前言我曾在2020年2月，茅台股价上1300元的时候分析过，各种夸奖，并在文中建议28-30倍市盈率买入。此后疫情导致股价真的达到千元以下，也就是目标建仓价格，但是我由于当时对茅台认识仍然不足，并且重仓平安没舍得换仓（判断不出哪个更有潜力）两个重要原因而错过。欢迎大家再翻翻以前写的这篇介绍文，如果您对茅台认识较浅的话。走近股王-茅台然而现在茅台价格继续一飞冲天，让我不得不再次研究下。有两个重要原因，对于茅台，是否市盈率50就需要卖出（至少我原来的交易体系偏向于卖出了），要知道这是茅台享受的历史最高点，是否还会继续估值水平高涨。二是许多大佬的操作让我糊涂。例如老唐到达2.3万亿不减仓，老华这时候居然还加仓3000万，同时也有大佬进行逐步减仓。02 估值这次的估值将不采用历史pe倍数估值法，咱们走的深一点、细致一点。结合茅台公司的商业模式进行深入分析。根据2019年茅台的利润表及附注我们可知其收入主要就是三大块：茅台酒收入、系列酒收入和利息收入。此处忽略手续费及佣金收入，抓大放小。我们的思路就是分部去计算收入，主要考虑两大经营业务收入，最后再考虑利息收入。以下估值过程充满了很多主观判断，如有不合适的地方，还请指出。两大假设：一、供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二、由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。其他假设、判断，在估值过程中有所体现。根据前人指路，茅台酒的特点为今年的产量是","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20c816573e3717cbea914d02619e999e","width":"621","height":"424"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394350821","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":995432500,"gmtCreate":1566270894700,"gmtModify":1704713977276,"author":{"id":"3441147820849269","authorId":"3441147820849269","name":"沙漠里的火","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441147820849269","authorIdStr":"3441147820849269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>还在底部","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>还在底部","text":"$百度(BIDU)$还在底部","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6900865723148d53257a9b248dceb180","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995432500","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":467558956618192,"gmtCreate":1755166866281,"gmtModify":1755167157290,"author":{"id":"3441147820849269","authorId":"3441147820849269","name":"沙漠里的火","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441147820849269","authorIdStr":"3441147820849269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRON\">$Tron Inc.(TRON)$</a> 孙哥成神了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRON\">$Tron Inc.(TRON)$</a> 孙哥成神了","text":"$Tron Inc.(TRON)$ 孙哥成神了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467558956618192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995432500,"gmtCreate":1566270894700,"gmtModify":1704713977276,"author":{"id":"3441147820849269","authorId":"3441147820849269","name":"沙漠里的火","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441147820849269","authorIdStr":"3441147820849269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>还在底部","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>还在底部","text":"$百度(BIDU)$还在底部","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6900865723148d53257a9b248dceb180","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995432500","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394151346,"gmtCreate":1607963870185,"gmtModify":1703850406149,"author":{"id":"3441147820849269","authorId":"3441147820849269","name":"沙漠里的火","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3441147820849269","authorIdStr":"3441147820849269"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394151346","repostId":"394350821","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":394350821,"gmtCreate":1607951692463,"gmtModify":1703850257158,"author":{"id":"3502662293881250","authorId":"3502662293881250","name":"安心睡大觉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5644d6d3b2f1f98162851b875f4d8ac5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502662293881250","authorIdStr":"3502662293881250"},"themes":[],"title":"股王茅台现在估值高不高？","htmlText":"核心内容：1.根据茅台的商业模式对茅台进行估值，具体可从两块产品收入进行业务现金流折现分析，外加考虑利息收入；2. 茅台有两大特点：一是供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二是由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。本文结构：1.&nbsp;前言（一些废话）2. 估值分析3.&nbsp;小结4.风险01&nbsp;&nbsp;前言我曾在2020年2月，茅台股价上1300元的时候分析过，各种夸奖，并在文中建议28-30倍市盈率买入。此后疫情导致股价真的达到千元以下，也就是目标建仓价格，但是我由于当时对茅台认识仍然不足，并且重仓平安没舍得换仓（判断不出哪个更有潜力）两个重要原因而错过。欢迎大家再翻翻以前写的这篇介绍文，如果您对茅台认识较浅的话。走近股王-茅台然而现在茅台价格继续一飞冲天，让我不得不再次研究下。有两个重要原因，对于茅台，是否市盈率50就需要卖出（至少我原来的交易体系偏向于卖出了），要知道这是茅台享受的历史最高点，是否还会继续估值水平高涨。二是许多大佬的操作让我糊涂。例如老唐到达2.3万亿不减仓，老华这时候居然还加仓3000万，同时也有大佬进行逐步减仓。02&nbsp;估值这次的估值将不采用历史pe倍数估值法，咱们走的深一点、细致一点。结合茅台公司的商业模式进行深入分析。根据2019年茅台的利润表及附注我们可知其收入主要就是三大块：茅台酒收入、系列酒收入和利息收入。此处忽略手续费及佣金收入，抓大放小。我们的思路就是分部去计算收入，主要考虑两大经营业务收入，最后再考虑利息收入。以下估值过程充满了很多主观判断，如有不合适的地方，还请指出。两大假设：一、供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二、由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。其他假设、判断，在估值过程中有所体现。根据前人指路，茅台酒的特点为今年的产量是","listText":"核心内容：1.根据茅台的商业模式对茅台进行估值，具体可从两块产品收入进行业务现金流折现分析，外加考虑利息收入；2. 茅台有两大特点：一是供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二是由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。本文结构：1.&nbsp;前言（一些废话）2. 估值分析3.&nbsp;小结4.风险01&nbsp;&nbsp;前言我曾在2020年2月，茅台股价上1300元的时候分析过，各种夸奖，并在文中建议28-30倍市盈率买入。此后疫情导致股价真的达到千元以下，也就是目标建仓价格，但是我由于当时对茅台认识仍然不足，并且重仓平安没舍得换仓（判断不出哪个更有潜力）两个重要原因而错过。欢迎大家再翻翻以前写的这篇介绍文，如果您对茅台认识较浅的话。走近股王-茅台然而现在茅台价格继续一飞冲天，让我不得不再次研究下。有两个重要原因，对于茅台，是否市盈率50就需要卖出（至少我原来的交易体系偏向于卖出了），要知道这是茅台享受的历史最高点，是否还会继续估值水平高涨。二是许多大佬的操作让我糊涂。例如老唐到达2.3万亿不减仓，老华这时候居然还加仓3000万，同时也有大佬进行逐步减仓。02&nbsp;估值这次的估值将不采用历史pe倍数估值法，咱们走的深一点、细致一点。结合茅台公司的商业模式进行深入分析。根据2019年茅台的利润表及附注我们可知其收入主要就是三大块：茅台酒收入、系列酒收入和利息收入。此处忽略手续费及佣金收入，抓大放小。我们的思路就是分部去计算收入，主要考虑两大经营业务收入，最后再考虑利息收入。以下估值过程充满了很多主观判断，如有不合适的地方，还请指出。两大假设：一、供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二、由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。其他假设、判断，在估值过程中有所体现。根据前人指路，茅台酒的特点为今年的产量是","text":"核心内容：1.根据茅台的商业模式对茅台进行估值，具体可从两块产品收入进行业务现金流折现分析，外加考虑利息收入；2. 茅台有两大特点：一是供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二是由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。本文结构：1. 前言（一些废话）2. 估值分析3. 小结4.风险01 前言我曾在2020年2月，茅台股价上1300元的时候分析过，各种夸奖，并在文中建议28-30倍市盈率买入。此后疫情导致股价真的达到千元以下，也就是目标建仓价格，但是我由于当时对茅台认识仍然不足，并且重仓平安没舍得换仓（判断不出哪个更有潜力）两个重要原因而错过。欢迎大家再翻翻以前写的这篇介绍文，如果您对茅台认识较浅的话。走近股王-茅台然而现在茅台价格继续一飞冲天，让我不得不再次研究下。有两个重要原因，对于茅台，是否市盈率50就需要卖出（至少我原来的交易体系偏向于卖出了），要知道这是茅台享受的历史最高点，是否还会继续估值水平高涨。二是许多大佬的操作让我糊涂。例如老唐到达2.3万亿不减仓，老华这时候居然还加仓3000万，同时也有大佬进行逐步减仓。02 估值这次的估值将不采用历史pe倍数估值法，咱们走的深一点、细致一点。结合茅台公司的商业模式进行深入分析。根据2019年茅台的利润表及附注我们可知其收入主要就是三大块：茅台酒收入、系列酒收入和利息收入。此处忽略手续费及佣金收入，抓大放小。我们的思路就是分部去计算收入，主要考虑两大经营业务收入，最后再考虑利息收入。以下估值过程充满了很多主观判断，如有不合适的地方，还请指出。两大假设：一、供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二、由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。其他假设、判断，在估值过程中有所体现。根据前人指路，茅台酒的特点为今年的产量是","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20c816573e3717cbea914d02619e999e","width":"621","height":"424"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394350821","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}