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沙漠里的火

08-14

$Tron Inc.(TRON)$ 孙哥成神了

沙漠里的火

2019-08-20

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沙漠里的火

2020-12-15

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@安心睡大觉:股王茅台现在估值高不高？

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茅台有两大特点：一是供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二是由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。本文结构：1.&nbsp;前言（一些废话）2. 估值分析3.&nbsp;小结4.风险01&nbsp;&nbsp;前言我曾在2020年2月，茅台股价上1300元的时候分析过，各种夸奖，并在文中建议28-30倍市盈率买入。此后疫情导致股价真的达到千元以下，也就是目标建仓价格，但是我由于当时对茅台认识仍然不足，并且重仓平安没舍得换仓（判断不出哪个更有潜力）两个重要原因而错过。欢迎大家再翻翻以前写的这篇介绍文，如果您对茅台认识较浅的话。走近股王-茅台然而现在茅台价格继续一飞冲天，让我不得不再次研究下。有两个重要原因，对于茅台，是否市盈率50就需要卖出（至少我原来的交易体系偏向于卖出了），要知道这是茅台享受的历史最高点，是否还会继续估值水平高涨。二是许多大佬的操作让我糊涂。例如老唐到达2.3万亿不减仓，老华这时候居然还加仓3000万，同时也有大佬进行逐步减仓。02&nbsp;估值这次的估值将不采用历史pe倍数估值法，咱们走的深一点、细致一点。结合茅台公司的商业模式进行深入分析。根据2019年茅台的利润表及附注我们可知其收入主要就是三大块：茅台酒收入、系列酒收入和利息收入。此处忽略手续费及佣金收入，抓大放小。我们的思路就是分部去计算收入，主要考虑两大经营业务收入，最后再考虑利息收入。以下估值过程充满了很多主观判断，如有不合适的地方，还请指出。两大假设：一、供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二、由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。其他假设、判断，在估值过程中有所体现。根据前人指路，茅台酒的特点为今年的产量是","listText":"核心内容：1.根据茅台的商业模式对茅台进行估值，具体可从两块产品收入进行业务现金流折现分析，外加考虑利息收入；2. 茅台有两大特点：一是供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二是由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。本文结构：1.&nbsp;前言（一些废话）2. 估值分析3.&nbsp;小结4.风险01&nbsp;&nbsp;前言我曾在2020年2月，茅台股价上1300元的时候分析过，各种夸奖，并在文中建议28-30倍市盈率买入。此后疫情导致股价真的达到千元以下，也就是目标建仓价格，但是我由于当时对茅台认识仍然不足，并且重仓平安没舍得换仓（判断不出哪个更有潜力）两个重要原因而错过。欢迎大家再翻翻以前写的这篇介绍文，如果您对茅台认识较浅的话。走近股王-茅台然而现在茅台价格继续一飞冲天，让我不得不再次研究下。有两个重要原因，对于茅台，是否市盈率50就需要卖出（至少我原来的交易体系偏向于卖出了），要知道这是茅台享受的历史最高点，是否还会继续估值水平高涨。二是许多大佬的操作让我糊涂。例如老唐到达2.3万亿不减仓，老华这时候居然还加仓3000万，同时也有大佬进行逐步减仓。02&nbsp;估值这次的估值将不采用历史pe倍数估值法，咱们走的深一点、细致一点。结合茅台公司的商业模式进行深入分析。根据2019年茅台的利润表及附注我们可知其收入主要就是三大块：茅台酒收入、系列酒收入和利息收入。此处忽略手续费及佣金收入，抓大放小。我们的思路就是分部去计算收入，主要考虑两大经营业务收入，最后再考虑利息收入。以下估值过程充满了很多主观判断，如有不合适的地方，还请指出。两大假设：一、供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二、由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。其他假设、判断，在估值过程中有所体现。根据前人指路，茅台酒的特点为今年的产量是","text":"核心内容：1.根据茅台的商业模式对茅台进行估值，具体可从两块产品收入进行业务现金流折现分析，外加考虑利息收入；2. 茅台有两大特点：一是供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二是由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。本文结构：1. 前言（一些废话）2. 估值分析3. 小结4.风险01 前言我曾在2020年2月，茅台股价上1300元的时候分析过，各种夸奖，并在文中建议28-30倍市盈率买入。此后疫情导致股价真的达到千元以下，也就是目标建仓价格，但是我由于当时对茅台认识仍然不足，并且重仓平安没舍得换仓（判断不出哪个更有潜力）两个重要原因而错过。欢迎大家再翻翻以前写的这篇介绍文，如果您对茅台认识较浅的话。走近股王-茅台然而现在茅台价格继续一飞冲天，让我不得不再次研究下。有两个重要原因，对于茅台，是否市盈率50就需要卖出（至少我原来的交易体系偏向于卖出了），要知道这是茅台享受的历史最高点，是否还会继续估值水平高涨。二是许多大佬的操作让我糊涂。例如老唐到达2.3万亿不减仓，老华这时候居然还加仓3000万，同时也有大佬进行逐步减仓。02 估值这次的估值将不采用历史pe倍数估值法，咱们走的深一点、细致一点。结合茅台公司的商业模式进行深入分析。根据2019年茅台的利润表及附注我们可知其收入主要就是三大块：茅台酒收入、系列酒收入和利息收入。此处忽略手续费及佣金收入，抓大放小。我们的思路就是分部去计算收入，主要考虑两大经营业务收入，最后再考虑利息收入。以下估值过程充满了很多主观判断，如有不合适的地方，还请指出。两大假设：一、供不应求，产量可以决定销量；二、由于生产工艺的特点，产量可以由五年前基酒量判断出来，进而为我们准确预估提供可能。其他假设、判断，在估值过程中有所体现。根据前人指路，茅台酒的特点为今年的产量是","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20c816573e3717cbea914d02619e999e","width":"621","height":"424"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394350821","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}